Got%OnIt
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Serie A·Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT

AtalantavVenezia

Atalanta
71%
Draw
18%
Venezia
11%

Got%OnIt gives Atalanta a 71% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Worth knowing: Venezia has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Atalanta and 0.8 for Venezia.
  • Atalanta won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 a game.
  • Venezia won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Venezia has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Atalanta are 11th of 20 after 5 games; Venezia are 20th.
  • Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3; Venezia have won 0 and lost 5.
Recent matches the model used

Atalanta

  • L0–2at Juventus20 Sept
  • L1–2v Cagliari12 Sept
  • L1–2at AS Roma5 Sept
  • W1–0v Bologna31 Aug
  • W2–1v Sassuolo23 Aug
  • D1–1at Fiorentina22 May

Venezia

  • L0–2v Lazio19 Sept
  • L2–4v Fiorentina11 Sept
  • L2–3at Frosinone6 Sept
  • L0–2at AC Milan28 Aug
  • L0–2v Lecce23 Aug
  • L2–3v Juventus25 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 527, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Atalanta)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Venezia)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAtalanta 1 absent regular · Venezia 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Atalanta

22 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League H Pafos +3.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League +3.1 d after (H Pafos) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 12 SeptSAH CagliariL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptSAA JuventusL 0–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 15 OctUECLH Pafos+3.1 d
  • Sun 18 OctSAA AC Milan+6 d
  • Thu 22 OctUECLA Ajax+10.1 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAH Frosinone+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 20 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Kossounou (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 10 CONFIRMED

Atalanta: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Jonathan RoweF00—
Charles De Ketelaere · regularF2018785' Belgium, 13.9 d before; 82' Belgium, 9.9 d before; 20' Belgium, 6.9 d before
Éderson · regularM00—
Giorgio Scalvini · regularD018090' Italy, 13.9 d before; 90' Italy, 9.9 d before; 0' Italy, 6.9 d before
Thomas KristensenD00—
Raoul BellanovaD00—
Marco Carnesecchi · regularG000' Italy, 13.9 d before; 0' Italy, 9.9 d before; 0' Italy, 6.9 d before
Nikola KrstovićF9015868' Montenegro, 10 d before; 90' Montenegro, 6.9 d before
Franck KessiéM00—
Lazar SamardžićM09523' Serbia, 10.9 d before; 72' Serbia, 7.9 d before
Lorenzo BernasconiD00—

International duty in 14 days: 10 players, 1602 minutes — Sead Kolašinac (81' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 13.9 d before; 90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 9.9 d before; 90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 6.9 d before); Charles De Ketelaere (85' Belgium, 13.9 d before; 82' Belgium, 9.9 d before; 20' Belgium, 6.9 d before); Giorgio Scalvini (90' Italy, 13.9 d before; 90' Italy, 9.9 d before; 0' Italy, 6.9 d before); Eljif Elmas (90' FYR Macedonia, 12.9 d before; 90' FYR Macedonia, 8.9 d before; 90' FYR Macedonia, 5.9 d before); Nicola Zalewski (90' Poland, 13.9 d before; 78' Poland, 9.9 d before; 90' Poland, 6.9 d before); Gianluca Scamacca (15' Italy, 13.9 d before; 0' Italy, 9.9 d before; 56' Italy, 6.9 d before); Giacomo Raspadori (46' Italy, 13.9 d before); Nikola Krstović (68' Montenegro, 10 d before; 90' Montenegro, 6.9 d before); Lazar Samardžić (23' Serbia, 10.9 d before; 72' Serbia, 7.9 d before); Mario Pašalić (30' Croatia, 12.9 d before; 44' Croatia, 9 d before; 2' Croatia, 5.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Venezia

22.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 1 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Napoli +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAH LazioL 0–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctSAH Napoli+4.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAA Genoa+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: R. Haps (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Venezia: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
T. CorreiaM00—
A. HainautM00—
A. AdamsF00—
J. Schingtienne · regularD00—
F. StankovicG000' Serbia, 10.9 d before; 0' Serbia, 7.9 d before
K. Perez · regularM00—
S. SohmM00—
Juan JesusD00—
M. MorenoD00—
J. YeboahF00—
T. J. HelgasonM000' Iceland, 12.9 d before; 0' Iceland, 9 d before; 0' Iceland, 5.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 69 minutes — A. Rrahmani (69' Kosovo, 10.9 d before; 0' Kosovo, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 1 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Atalanta

  • G. Raspadori · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable
  • I. Hien · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • K. Sulemana · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable
  • O. Kossounou · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture

Venezia

  • A. Adorante · injury / absence: Hernia · Missing Fixture
  • A. Bella-Kotchap · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • B. Franjic · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Missing Fixture
  • G. Busio · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Dagasso · injury / absence: Inactive · Questionable
  • M. Sverko · injury / absence: Hip Injury · Missing Fixture
  • P. Mazzocchi · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • R. Haps · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • T. Basic · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Atalanta71%60%64%
Draw18%23%22%
Venezia11%17%14%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 22 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Atalanta a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (71% vs 60%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Atalanta

  • Atalanta: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.1 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L0–2at Juventus20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Cagliari12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at AS Roma5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Bologna31 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sassuolo23 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Fiorentina22 May · in model evidence

Venezia

  • Venezia: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.9 and conceded 2.3 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L0–2v Lazio19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–4v Fiorentina11 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Frosinone6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2at AC Milan28 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Lecce23 Aug · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Juventus25 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.580%
Over 2.557%
Over 3.535%
Both teams score47%

Atalanta

Expected goals2.22
Scores at least once89%
Scores 2 or more65%
Clean sheet47%

Venezia

Expected goals0.76
Scores at least once53%
Scores 2 or more18%
Clean sheet11%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability13 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

13 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 1 h ago.

Atalanta

  • G. RaspadoriDoubtfulThigh Injury
  • I. HienOutMuscle Injury
  • K. SulemanaDoubtfulKnee Injury
  • O. KossounouOutThigh Injury

Venezia

  • A. AdoranteOutHernia
  • A. Bella-KotchapOutThigh Injury
  • B. FranjicOutShoulder Injury
  • G. BusioOutThigh Injury
  • M. DagassoDoubtfulInactive
  • M. SverkoOutHip Injury
  • P. MazzocchiOutInjury
  • R. HapsDoubtfulInjury
  • T. BasicDoubtfulFoot Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 20th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Atalanta

11th of 20 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 7

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWW (most recent last)

Venezia

20th of 20 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L5 from 5 games · scored 4, conceded 13

Home W0 D0 L3 (scored 2, conceded 8) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Atalanta to win (90 minutes)
71%
64%
YES on Atalanta to WinAtalanta wins in 90 minutes
71%64¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 84,269 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
18%
22%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
18%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 51,659 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Venezia to win (90 minutes)
11%
14%
YES on Venezia to WinVenezia wins in 90 minutes
11%15¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,646 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawAtalanta or Venezia wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
82%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,346 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia to WinAtalanta wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
89%86¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 62,444 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta to WinVenezia wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
29%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 11,720 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 67,693 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 13,815 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
84%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
80%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,480 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
20%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 11,609 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
57%
64%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
57%64¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 14,817 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
43%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 902 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
42%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
35%42¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,264 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
65%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 23,538 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
18%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,835 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
82%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,276 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,911 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
47%
59%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
47%59¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,908 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
53%42¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,563 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Winning margin
Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
47%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on Atalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtalanta wins by 2 goals or more
47%41¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 20,949 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVenezia wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 1 goal · Atalanta not by 2+ goals
53%60¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 13,393 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Atalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtalanta wins by 3 goals or more
26%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,392 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVenezia wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 2 goals or fewer · Atalanta not by 3+ goals
74%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,195 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Venezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVenezia wins by 2 goals or more
3%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,719 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAtalanta wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 1 goal · Venezia not by 2+ goals
97%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 42,492 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
2%
Limited evidence
YES on Venezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVenezia wins by 3 goals or more
1%2¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,261 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAtalanta wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 2 goals or fewer · Venezia not by 3+ goals
99%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 19,205 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Team goals
Atalanta over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
89%
90%
Limited evidence
YES on Atalanta Over 0.5 GoalsAtalanta scores 1 goal or more
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 560 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta Over 0.5 GoalsAtalanta does not score · Atalanta under 0.5 goals
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Atalanta over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
65%
66%
Limited evidence
YES on Atalanta Over 1.5 GoalsAtalanta scores 2 goals or more
65%67¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,706 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta Over 1.5 GoalsAtalanta scores 1 goal or fewer · Atalanta under 1.5 goals
35%35¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Atalanta over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Atalanta Over 2.5 GoalsAtalanta scores 3 goals or more
38%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,501 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Atalanta Over 2.5 GoalsAtalanta scores 2 goals or fewer · Atalanta under 2.5 goals
62%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Venezia over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
53%
65%
Limited evidence
YES on Venezia Over 0.5 GoalsVenezia scores 1 goal or more
53%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia Over 0.5 GoalsVenezia does not score · Venezia under 0.5 goals
47%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
27%
Limited evidence
YES on Venezia Over 1.5 GoalsVenezia scores 2 goals or more
18%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,369 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia Over 1.5 GoalsVenezia scores 1 goal or fewer · Venezia under 1.5 goals
82%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,574 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Venezia over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Venezia Over 2.5 GoalsVenezia scores 3 goals or more
4%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Venezia Over 2.5 GoalsVenezia scores 2 goals or fewer · Venezia under 2.5 goals
96%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 35 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 70.7% · draw 18.0% · away 11.3%
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.76
Atalanta eligible matches
119 (118 with xG)
Venezia eligible matches
43 (40 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • away side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
  • xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 7% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

AtalantaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
20 SeptJuventusaway0–20.60–1.31L
12 SeptCagliarihome1–21.74–1.32L
5 SeptAS Romaaway1–2—L
31 AugBolognahome1–00.15–1.05W
23 AugSassuolohome2–10.88–2.70W
22 MayFiorentinaaway1–11.38–0.85D
VeneziaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptLaziohome0–21.89–1.60L
11 SeptFiorentinahome2–40.49–3.31L
6 SeptFrosinoneaway2–3—L
28 AugAC Milanaway0–2—L
23 AugLeccehome0–2—L
25 MayJuventushome2–30.88–1.96L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12ATAVEN-BTTS
47.3%58.5%−11.2 pts0.58 / 0.590.423,908 / 4,563Comparable
seen 30 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atalanta to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA
70.7%63.5%+7.2 pts0.63 / 0.640.3784,269 / 11,720Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN
11.3%14.5%−3.2 pts0.14 / 0.150.862,646 / 62,444Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-TIE
18.0%21.5%−3.5 pts0.21 / 0.220.7951,659 / 8,346Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2
46.8%40.5%+6.3 pts0.40 / 0.410.6020,949 / 13,393Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3
25.5%21.5%+4.0 pts0.21 / 0.220.795,392 / 5,195Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2
3.1%4.5%−1.4 pts0.04 / 0.050.961,719 / 42,492Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3
0.7%1.5%−0.8 pts0.01 / 0.020.992,261 / 19,205Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Atalanta over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA1
89.1%90.0%−0.9 pts0.89 / 0.910.11560 / 4Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Atalanta over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2
64.9%66.0%−1.1 pts0.65 / 0.670.351,706 / 1,001Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Atalanta over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3
38.1%38.0%+0.1 pts0.37 / 0.390.631,501 / 1,000Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN1
53.1%65.0%−11.9 pts0.64 / 0.660.361,500 / 1,001Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2
17.6%26.5%−8.9 pts0.26 / 0.270.741,369 / 5,574Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3
4.1%8.0%−3.9 pts0.07 / 0.090.93501 / 35Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-1
94.9%96.0%−1.1 pts0.95 / 0.970.0567,693 / 13,815Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-2
79.7%84.0%−4.3 pts0.83 / 0.850.175,480 / 11,609Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-3
57.1%63.5%−6.4 pts0.63 / 0.640.3714,817 / 902Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-4
34.7%41.5%−6.8 pts0.41 / 0.420.5915,264 / 23,538Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-5
18.0%22.5%−4.5 pts0.22 / 0.230.783,835 / 2,276Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-6
8.1%10.5%−2.4 pts0.10 / 0.110.90500 / 6,911Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:11.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home60.4%59.1% – 61.5%63.7%1.571070.7%+10.2 pts
1x2:draw22.5%21.4% – 23.1%23.8%4.201018.0%−4.5 pts
1x2:away17.2%15.6% – 18.6%18.0%5.551011.3%−5.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:21.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.8%60.3% – 61.6%65.4%1.53757.1%−3.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.539.2%38.4% – 39.7%42.0%2.38742.9%+3.7 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:22.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 5.80 · draw 4.15 · home 1.5811/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 5.50 · draw 4.20 · home 1.5711/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 6.16 · draw 4.20 · home 1.5711/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 4.77 · draw 3.98 · home 1.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 5.00 · draw 4.20 · home 1.5511/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 5.75 · draw 4.10 · home 1.5711/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 5.60 · draw 4.40 · home 1.5811/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 5.97 · draw 4.28 · home 1.6311/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 5.40 · draw 4.25 · home 1.6011/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 5.50 · draw 4.40 · home 1.5311/10/2026, 11:37:2111/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3411/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.5111/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3411/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4711/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.52 · under 2.5 2.3111/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:10.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:50 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Atalantaok11/10/2026, 11:37:12 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Veneziaok11/10/2026, 11:37:14 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home70.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw18.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away11.3%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x88.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x229.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1282.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes47.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no52.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.579.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.557.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.542.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.534.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.565.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.518.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.589.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.510.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.564.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.535.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.538.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.561.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.518.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.581.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.553.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.546.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.517.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.582.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.54.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.595.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.50.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.599.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.525.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.574.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.546.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.553.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.570.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.529.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.596.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.53.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home86.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away13.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 527 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:11