Got%OnIt

Profit Lab

1912 of 1912 positions

Build finds combinations. Lab evaluates individual market contracts. Each row prices one side of one Kalshi contract as if $5.00 were spent on it at the current ask, and sets that against Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate.

A positive estimated return means the model sees potential value before model error, fees already estimated here, liquidity and price movement are accounted for. Nothing on this page is a recommendation or a guaranteed profit; every dollar figure is hypothetical. Only individual contracts are quoted on Kalshi — never a five-leg combination — so a Build set cannot be bought as one price.

How to use Lab
  1. Compare the prices. “Got%OnIt chance” is what the model thinks will happen; “Kalshi price” is what one contract costs now; “Break-even chance” is how often the side would need to win to cover that price and the estimated fee.
  2. Review the evidence. “Evaluated market” means the market type has been tested out of sample; “Model-supported, not evaluated” has retrospective support only; “Limited evidence” is shown for research. Open “Review match” for the match-level evidence.
  3. Understand the uncertainty. The model has over-stated some positions in the past (the calibration gap); the “Conservative estimate” subtracts that documented gap. Positions picked because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than stated (the selection effect, shown as “Selected-leg record”). On every fair comparison so far the market has been at least as accurate as the model.
  4. Track on paper. “Track on paper” saves the row’s figures at this instant. Nothing is placed and no money moves.
  5. Check the result later. Paper positions settle after the match under Records → Paper positions.
Shown
1912
Positive estimated return
457
Also positive after calibration gap
263
Stake per position
$5.00
Selected-leg record
48.3% won vs 59.5% stated (29 settled)

How often legs chosen because the model disagreed with the market actually won, against what the model stated for them.

Reset
  1. Paris Saint GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Estimated return
    +$3.13 on $4.98
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.75 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · quote quality
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts28 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 38 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 388, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    quote quality (quote quality gate)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 43.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  2. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Estimated return
    +$2.45 on $5.16
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.11 on $5.16

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts212 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 22 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-3 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  3. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.39 on $4.94
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.25 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 20 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-4 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  4. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to WinWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.60 on $4.92
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.44 on $4.92

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,028 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 17 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 42.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  5. GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Galatasaray wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Estimated return
    +$4.43 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.69 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts27,638 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 23 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 180, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 47 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (7.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  6. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOLiverpool to WinWins if: Lask Linz wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Estimated return
    +$4.14 on $5.06
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.49 on $5.06

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts23,808 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 22 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-LFC · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 192, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 47 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (7.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  7. Paris Saint GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.99 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.36 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · quote quality
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 30 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-PSG · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 388, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    quote quality (quote quality gate)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 34.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  8. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBarcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.15 on $4.93
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.09 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts379 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 15 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR2 · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  9. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Estimated return
    +$2.13 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.90 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts563 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 15 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  10. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESSabah FA to WinWins if: Sabah FA wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Estimated return
    +$2.81 on $5.00
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.97 on $5.00

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,651 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 18 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sabah FA to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SBH · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 174, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  11. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.00 on $5.02
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.94 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts727 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG2 · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  12. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Estimated return
    +$3.54 on $5.14
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.80 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts705 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-2 · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 16.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  13. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.76 on $4.94
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.72 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3,395 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  14. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.89 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.64 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts458 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  15. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.93 on $4.93
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.88 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM2 · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  16. GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESGalatasaray to WinWins if: Galatasaray wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Estimated return
    +$7.42 on $5.32
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$4.66 on $5.32

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts139 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Galatasaray to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 180, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.6 points on 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 9.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  17. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to WinWins if: Hull City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Estimated return
    +$2.76 on $5.28
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.32 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts18,457 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  18. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.29 on $4.89
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.20 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-4 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  19. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Estimated return
    +$3.31 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.74 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts24,633 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 19 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (9 matches); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-VFB · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 206, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 47 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (7.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  20. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.66 on $4.81
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.53 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts617 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  21. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSlovan Bratislava to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Estimated return
    +$7.12 on $5.32
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$4.37 on $5.32

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts741 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 15 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (9 matches); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-SLO · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 206, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.6 points on 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 9.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  22. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lens wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.44 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.30 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,015 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL2 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 30.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  23. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.21 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.12 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,200 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  24. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.39 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.29 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-4 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  25. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.74 on $4.78
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.69 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts474 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-3 · YES
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  26. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to WinWins if: Levante wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.25 on $4.89
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.07 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts329 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 35.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  27. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: AEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Estimated return
    +$4.07 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.72 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 23 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (1 match); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-MCI · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 384, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.4 points on 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 20.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  28. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.91 on $4.75
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.72 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 364, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  29. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.02 on $4.98
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.76 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,194 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-3 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 366, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  30. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.95 on $4.98
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.76 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-4 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  31. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to WinWins if: Lens wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.84 on $5.02
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.67 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts4,247 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  32. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.72 on $5.11
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.66 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-3 · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  33. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOSlavia Praha to WinWins if: Sabah FA wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.19 on $5.02
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.66 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts15,862 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Slavia Praha to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SLA · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 174, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 53.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  34. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Betis to WinWins if: Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.30 on $4.88
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.72 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts46,912 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-RBB · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 198, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  35. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Estimated return
    +$2.19 on $5.23
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.85 on $5.23

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts209 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-5 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  36. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOTottenham to WinWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.11 on $4.89
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.92 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts6,264 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Tottenham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TOT · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 370, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  37. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.48 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,077 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-4 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 366, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  38. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.61 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.28 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,004 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV1 · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  39. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Estimated return
    +$2.85 on $5.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.20 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts347 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  40. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Estimated return
    +$2.51 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.32 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts451 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  41. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.21 on $4.89
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.85 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,001 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN1 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 396, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  42. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.96 on $4.88
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.78 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,314 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 354, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  43. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $4.47
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.39 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts5,007 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 364, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  44. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $4.53
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.45 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,678 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 62.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  45. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.54 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.44 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts383 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-5 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  46. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLe Mans to WinWins if: Le Mans wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.18 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.92 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts55 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 31.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  47. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.47 on $4.53
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.43 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 354, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  48. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.13 on $4.89
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.79 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-3 · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 324, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  49. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $4.35
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts720 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  50. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.63 on $4.86
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.48 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts213 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 58%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-4 · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 324, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  51. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.84 on $5.15
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.64 on $5.15

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3,151 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-4 · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  52. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to WinWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.72 on $5.08
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.58 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,169 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 428, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  53. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to WinWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.62 on $5.11
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.50 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,515 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 348, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  54. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Estimated return
    +$4.01 on $5.28
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$3.38 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-6 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 7.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  55. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESLask Linz to WinWins if: Lask Linz wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Estimated return
    +$5.31 on $5.32
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.71 on $5.32

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts47,078 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Lask Linz to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-ASK · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 192, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.6 points on 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 9.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  56. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.35 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.32 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-2 · YES
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 79.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  57. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESCagliari to WinWins if: Cagliari wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.21 on $5.04
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.86 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,394 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Cagliari to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-CAG · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 434, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  58. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $4.67
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,589 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 332, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  59. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $4.70
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.31 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM3 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  60. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.70 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.62 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,108 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-4 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  61. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.30 on $5.00
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.87 on $5.00

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts873 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-3 · NO
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  62. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESPSV Eindhoven to WinWins if: PSV Eindhoven wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.93 on $5.27
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.01 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts31,228 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 184, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  63. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts220 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (4 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-4 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 330, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  64. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.44 on $5.06
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.00 on $5.06

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts5,061 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 428, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  65. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.45 on $4.86
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts549 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU3 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 344, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  66. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.75 on $4.78
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.49 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts743 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-3 · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  67. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn, or FC Augsburg wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $5.04
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 332, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  68. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to WinWins if: Newcastle wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.73 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.53 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts188,682 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW · YES
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 43.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  69. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOFC Porto to WinWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.51 on $4.41
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts478 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); thin history for the away side (9 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Porto to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-FCP · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 198, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  70. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESCrystal Palace to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.73 on $5.14
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.28 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts5,058 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 354, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  71. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.81 on $5.15
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.52 on $5.15

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,218 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-3 · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  72. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.78
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.47 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts23,680 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-3 · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  73. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts908 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-3 · YES
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  74. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $4.53
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3,261 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 396, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  75. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.30 on $4.54
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.54

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts397 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  76. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.48 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.02 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,338 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 332, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  77. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.53 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts178 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU2 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 344, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  78. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.60
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.31 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts651 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-5 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  79. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.41 on $5.27
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.87 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts958 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-2 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 366, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  80. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.81
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts8,367 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 348, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  81. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.86 on $5.22
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.22 on $5.22

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,119 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  82. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts718 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-4 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  83. Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.82 on $4.62
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.33 on $4.62

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3,063 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 202, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 55.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  84. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $4.94
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,915 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-4 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  85. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.12 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.49 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3,653 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 332, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  86. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.93
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,022 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-4 · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 368, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 51.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  87. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.67
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts370 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 362, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  88. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.53
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.24 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts4,886 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV1 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  89. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts415 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW2 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  90. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.87 on $5.19
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.59 on $5.19

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts700 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-4 · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 344, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 32.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  91. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $4.81
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.24 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts622 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-2 · YES
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  92. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.91 on $5.27
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.78 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,723 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-4 · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  93. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.29 on $5.27
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.78 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,035 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-3 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  94. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.01 on $5.00
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.66 on $5.00

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,008 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA2 · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  95. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Estimated return
    +$4.88 on $5.34
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$3.87 on $5.34

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 4.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  96. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to WinWins if: Osasuna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $5.18
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,527 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  97. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLe Mans to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Le Mans wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.88 on $5.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.23 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,019 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN2 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  98. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to WinWins if: Coventry wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.76 on $5.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.23 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts11,599 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-COV · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 370, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  99. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Estimated return
    +$2.78 on $5.28
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.31 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,309 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL2 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  100. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $4.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts9 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-5 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  101. Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $4.93
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.33 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts211 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-4 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 326, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  102. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or AC Milan wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $4.53
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM2 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 428, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  103. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Estimated return
    +$3.34 on $5.30
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.59 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 400, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  104. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.36 on $4.70
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts217 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-5 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 324, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  105. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Estimated return
    +$2.36 on $5.27
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.94 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,138 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA2 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 428, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  106. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.61 on $5.18
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.58 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 364, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 28.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  107. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to WinWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.58 on $4.88
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.41 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts9,510 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 362, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  108. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.71 on $5.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.29 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,711 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (7 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA3 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 350, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  109. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESMarseille to WinWins if: Marseille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.78
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.34 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts423 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 418, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  110. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.95 on $5.20
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.54 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts675 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-3 · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 368, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  111. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.47 on $4.78
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.33 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 322, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  112. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.39 on $4.94
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.94

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts186 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-6 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 344, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  113. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.69 on $5.13
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts642 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (4 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-3 · NO
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 330, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  114. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts647 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-6 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 346, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  115. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOInter to WinWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $5.01
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts4,928 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-INT · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 408, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  116. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $4.39
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $4.39

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,706 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  117. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.83 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.64 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts24,905 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2 · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  118. Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.33 on $4.98
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.43 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts89,615 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 202, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 33.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  119. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $4.67
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts24 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-4 · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 64.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  120. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.17 on $5.11
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.66 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,104 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-5 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  121. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to WinWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.30 on $4.73
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts22,513 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  122. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.39 on $5.08
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-5 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 326, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  123. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESViking to WinWins if: Viking wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Estimated return
    +$8.70 on $5.34
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.99 on $5.34

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts244,524 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Viking to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 186, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 7.9 points on 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 4.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  124. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.38 on $4.62
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.62

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts215 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-4 · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 332, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  125. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $4.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.25

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,086 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-6 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 406, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  126. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.41
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.17 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,237 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-2 · YES
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  127. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.37 on $4.86
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts23,187 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-4 · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 396, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 58.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  128. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.04
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts680 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI3 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 354, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  129. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.52 on $5.25
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.88 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts750 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG2 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 364, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  130. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.39
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.39

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts758 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  131. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.17 on $5.11
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.57 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,218 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-2 · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  132. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.62 on $5.26
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.16 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,945 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-5 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 314, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  133. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $5.04
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts401 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-2 · YES
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 412, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  134. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Estimated return
    +$7.70 on $5.31
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.08 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts55,223 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-TIE · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 186, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  135. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.08 on $5.10
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.51 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,289 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-2 · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 336, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  136. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESGenoa to WinWins if: Genoa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.93 on $5.26
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.09 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts2,500 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 414, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  137. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.54 on $5.15
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.26 on $5.15

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts501 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-3 · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 404, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  138. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.14 on $4.44
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts14,375 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 87.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  139. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.54 on $5.03
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.26 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts691 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-3 · NO
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 420, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  140. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn, or FSV Mainz 05 wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts6 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (4 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M052 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 330, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  141. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $4.93
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts909 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-5 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 344, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  142. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Estimated return
    +$2.68 on $5.31
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.93 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts34 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches); no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 328, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  143. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.73
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,117 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA3 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 368, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  144. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.47
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts748 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-4 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 362, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  145. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (4 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 330, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  146. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.92
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.24 on $4.92

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts558 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches); no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-3 · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 312, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 42.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  147. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $4.60
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts90,621 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the away side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 396, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  148. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Union Berlin wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $4.67
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts71 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB2 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 09:30 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 324, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.
  149. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    7 contracts for $4.69 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.80
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.80

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,287 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-4 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 420, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 67¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.5% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

  150. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.87
    estimated, before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 31 min ago
    • Available contracts1,048 resting (covers the stake)

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. Treat the gap with care: no usable history for the home side (cold start). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-4 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 11:33 (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1, snapshot 404, digest 2814d9275461c8a3); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error.

Showing the first 150 of 1912 positions in this order. Show all 1912 or narrow the filters.

Definitions and formulas
Got%OnIt chance
the frozen model probability of the side, made from finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries.
Kalshi price
the side’s own executable ask in cents per contract (NO at the NO ask = 1 − YES bid), never a mid-price; the mid-price is used only for the disagreement sentence.
Available contracts
the whole contracts the stake buys at the ask (stake ÷ ask, rounded down); the resting figure is the size at the best level when the price was observed.
Break-even chance
(contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts.
Estimated return
contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (contracts × ask + fee): a hypothetical research figure under the frozen model probability.
Conservative estimate
the same figure at the Got%OnIt chance minus the documented over-statement of this kind of position and one standard error (A1 audit); markets without a documented measurement carry none.
Fees
Kalshi's published general schedule: fees = round up to the cent of 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) on a trade that takes liquidity (0.0175 for resting orders where the series charges maker fees). Retrieved from public descriptions of the schedule on 2026-10-11; never reconciled with a real fill because none exists. Verify at kalshi.com/fee-schedule before relying on it.
Calibration source
research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

1,912 sides of 956 contracts on upcoming matches · 1567 with figures. A positive expected net is the model disagreeing with the market after fees; on every timestamped comparison available the market has been at least as accurate as the model (A1 §7), so none of these figures is a validated edge. Positions selected because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than their stated probability (selection effect; Records keeps the running figure); the sample is too small to size, so it is a caution, not a subtraction. Prices and sizes are the best resting level at observation time; depth beyond it and price movement before an order are not modelled. Nothing is placed by this application; a paper position records a hypothetical trade at these figures for later evaluation. Data as of 20:03.