Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT

CoventryvNewcastle

Coventry
22%
Draw
25%
Newcastle
53%

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a 53% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 5 Premier League matches for Coventry, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.0 goals for Coventry and 1.7 for Newcastle.
  • Coventry won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.2 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • Newcastle won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 5 Premier League matches for Coventry, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Coventry are 19th of 20 after 5 games; Newcastle are 11th.
  • Coventry have won 1 and lost 4; Newcastle have won 2 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Coventry

  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug

Newcastle

  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Coventry win22.4%15.2%−7.2 pts
Draw24.5%22.9%−1.6 pts
Newcastle win53.1%61.9%+8.8 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.03 and 1.71). Coventry 1.03 · Newcastle 1.71 · total 2.74 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Coventry–Newcastle)

  1. 1–111.7%
  2. 0–110.8%
  3. 1–29.7%
  4. 0–29.5%
  5. 0–06.8%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Coventry

Expected goals
1.03
Scoring vs average
×0.67
Conceding vs average
×1.35

Newcastle

Expected goals
1.71
Scoring vs average
×1.35
Conceding vs average
×0.67
  • Coventry (home): expected to score ×0.67 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.35 the average.
  • Newcastle (away): expected to score ×1.35 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.67 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Coventry
5 matches (5 with xG)
Newcastle
137 matches (137 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home22.4%over-stated by 3.9 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 16.0%
1x2:draw24.5%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.0%
1x2:away53.1%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 51.3%
double_chance:1x46.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x277.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes52.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no47.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.2%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.9%
total_goals:under:0.56.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.576.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.5%
total_goals:under:1.523.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.551.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.8%
total_goals:under:2.548.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.529.4%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.8%
total_goals:under:3.570.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.514.2%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 12.5%
total_goals:under:4.585.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.56.0%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 3.7%
total_goals:under:5.594.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.564.1%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.5%
team_total:home:under:0.535.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.527.4%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 26.8%
team_total:home:under:1.572.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.58.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.1%
team_total:home:under:2.591.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.52.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.3%
team_total:home:under:3.597.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.581.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.4%
team_total:away:under:0.518.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.551.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.3%
team_total:away:under:1.549.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.524.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.9%
team_total:away:under:2.575.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.59.5%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.9%
team_total:away:under:3.590.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.52.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.5%
spread:away:+2.597.7%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 97.5%
spread:home:-1.58.2%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.4%
spread:away:+1.591.8%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.4%
spread:home:-0.522.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.6%
spread:away:+0.577.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.1%
spread:home:+0.546.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.2%
spread:away:-0.553.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.8%
spread:home:+1.570.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.1%
spread:away:-1.529.3%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.4%
spread:home:+2.587.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.512.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home29.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away70.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.27 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6009077126003166047 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.16 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Coventry win22.4%22.7% ± 0.1+0.31 pts
Draw24.5%24.1% ± 0.1−0.44 pts
Newcastle win53.1%53.2% ± 0.2+0.13 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.27 pts (total_goals:under:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Coventry
17.9% ± 0.1 (exact 18.1%)
Newcastle
35.7% ± 0.2 (exact 35.9%)

Goal difference (Coventry minus Newcastle)

  1. <-50.4% ± 0.0
  2. -51.1% ± 0.0
  3. -43.2% ± 0.1
  4. -38.3% ± 0.1
  5. -216.3% ± 0.1
  6. -123.8% ± 0.1
  7. 024.1% ± 0.1
  8. 114.5% ± 0.1
  9. 25.8% ± 0.1
  10. 31.8% ± 0.0
  11. 40.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.1% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Coventry 1–1 Newcastle11.5% ± 0.111.7%
Coventry 0–1 Newcastle11.0% ± 0.110.8%
Coventry 1–2 Newcastle9.6% ± 0.19.7%
Coventry 0–2 Newcastle9.4% ± 0.19.5%
Coventry 1–0 Newcastle6.6% ± 0.16.4%

Expected goals (simulated)

Coventry
mean 1.03 · variance 1.03 · ± 0.003
Newcastle
mean 1.72 · variance 1.71 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move coventry win by −0.7 pts (to 21.7%). Expected goals move −0.08 for Coventry and −0.07 for Newcastle.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Coventry win22.4%21.7%−0.7 pts
Draw24.5%24.7%+0.1 pts
Newcastle win53.1%53.7%+0.6 pts
Expected goals1.03 – 1.710.94 – 1.64−0.08 / −0.07

Data labels: CONFIRMED 94 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 61 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Coventry

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 16.4% of goals share out

  • H. Wright F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Awoniyi F Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 16.4% · effect −16.4% REPORTED
  • L. Woolfenden D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Eccles M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Amenda D Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Latibeaudiere D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Kesler-Hayden Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Rushworth)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Newcastle

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.2% of goals share out

  • A. Elanga F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 6.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED
  • E. Jaouen G Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Joelinton M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −1.9% REPORTED
  • D. Burn D Questionable (Ankle Injury) · share 2.0% · effect −1.0% REPORTED
  • J. Ramsey M Questionable (Injury) · share 3.5% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • V. Livramento M Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Osula F Questionable (Foot Injury) · share 6.9% · effect −3.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hornicek)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move coventry win by +0.9 pts (to 23.2%). Expected goals move −0.00 for Coventry and −0.04 for Newcastle.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Coventry win22.4%23.2%+0.9 pts
Draw24.5%24.3%−0.2 pts
Newcastle win53.1%52.4%−0.7 pts
Expected goals1.03 – 1.711.02 – 1.67−0.00 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 94 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 61 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Coventry rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.61

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.009 (-0.099 to 0.106) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8363636363636364 · contribution 0.006 (-0.056 to 0.070) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Newcastle rate ×0.98 band 0.62–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8363636363636364 · contribution -0.014 (-0.073 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.024 (-0.127 to 0.084) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move draw by +0.5 pts (to 25.1%). Expected goals move −0.09 for Coventry and −0.11 for Newcastle.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Coventry win22.4%22.2%−0.1 pts
Draw24.5%25.1%+0.5 pts
Newcastle win53.1%52.7%−0.4 pts
Expected goals1.03 – 1.710.94 – 1.60−0.09 / −0.11

Data labels: CONFIRMED 94 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 61 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Coventry

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 16.4% of goals share out

  • H. Wright F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Awoniyi F Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 16.4% · effect −16.4% REPORTED
  • L. Woolfenden D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Eccles M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Amenda D Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Latibeaudiere D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Kesler-Hayden Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Rushworth)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Newcastle

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.2% of goals share out

  • A. Elanga F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 6.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED
  • E. Jaouen G Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Joelinton M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −1.9% REPORTED
  • D. Burn D Questionable (Ankle Injury) · share 2.0% · effect −1.0% REPORTED
  • J. Ramsey M Questionable (Injury) · share 3.5% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • V. Livramento M Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Osula F Questionable (Foot Injury) · share 6.9% · effect −3.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hornicek)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Coventry rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.61

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.009 (-0.099 to 0.106) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8363636363636364 · contribution 0.006 (-0.056 to 0.070) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Newcastle rate ×0.98 band 0.62–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8363636363636364 · contribution -0.014 (-0.073 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.024 (-0.127 to 0.084) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Coventry win22.4%23.3%+1.0 pts
Draw24.5%24.3%−0.2 pts
Newcastle win53.1%52.3%−0.8 pts
Expected goals—1.03 – 1.67+0.00 / −0.04

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 531 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)H. Barnes 28% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Coventry

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
V. Torp M20.9% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00227%
J. Dasilva D17.9% ± 0.11.8% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00168%
J. Rudoni M16.4% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00175%
E. Mason-Clark M12.9% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00162%

Newcastle

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 56% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Barnes F28.0% ± 0.14.3% ± 0.10.33 ± 0.00285%
M. Thiaw D8.6% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00186%
J. Willock M6.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00169%
Y. Wissa F6.3% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00181%
L. Hall D5.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
J. Murphy M4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00170%
L. Miley M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00167%
S. Botman D4.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.001100%

Run 944 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 439, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Newcastle)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Coventry)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationCoventry 23 d rest · Newcastle 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Coventry

23.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Tottenham +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 13 SeptPLH BrightonL 0–5counted as workload
  • Wed 16 SeptEFLH Aston VillaL 1–3counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLA Nottingham ForestW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Mon 19 OctPLA Tottenham+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Fulham+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 8 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 1 regular CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 8 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Coventry: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. DasilvaM018090' Wales, 11 d before; 90' Wales, 8 d before
C. RushworthG00—
M. GrimesM00—
F. OnyekaM00—
S. MfuniD00—
B. Thomas · regularD00—
J. RudoniF00—
E. Mason-ClarkF00—
C. YirenkyiM00—
E. PinnockD00—
B. Thomas-AsanteF00—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 354 minutes — J. Dasilva (90' Wales, 11 d before; 90' Wales, 8 d before); J. Latibeaudiere (90' Jamaica, 13.8 d before; 84' Jamaica, 9.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Newcastle

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Aston Villa +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptPLA LeedsL 1–4counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLH Hull CityW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctPLH Aston Villa+4.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLA Crystal Palace+12.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Dedic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 14.7 CONFIRMED

Newcastle: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Murphy · regularM00—
Y. WissaM00—
M. Fernandez-PardoF000' Belgium, 7 d before
L. MileyD00—
S. Botman · regularD00—
L. Hall · regularD7224190' England, 13 d before; 79' England, 9.1 d before; 72' England, 6 d before
S. SteurM00—
J. Willock · regularM00—
H. Barnes · regularM00—
M. Thiaw · regularD018090' Germany, 11 d before; 90' Germany, 8 d before
L. HornicekG90900' Czechia, 13 d before; 0' Czechia, 9 d before; 90' Czechia, 6 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 511 minutes — L. Hall (90' England, 13 d before; 79' England, 9.1 d before; 72' England, 6 d before); M. Thiaw (90' Germany, 11 d before; 90' Germany, 8 d before); L. Hornicek (0' Czechia, 13 d before; 0' Czechia, 9 d before; 90' Czechia, 6 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 3 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Coventry

  • A. Amenda · injury / absence: Calf Injury · Missing Fixture
  • H. Wright · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Eccles · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Latibeaudiere · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • K. Kesler-Hayden · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • L. Woolfenden · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Awoniyi · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture

Newcastle

  • A. Elanga · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • D. Burn · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Questionable
  • E. Jaouen · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Ramsey · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • Joelinton · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable
  • V. Livramento · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • W. Osula · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Coventry22%30%30%
Draw25%27%27%
Newcastle53%43%44%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 26 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Newcastle a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (53% vs 43%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence5 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Coventry

  • Coventry: 5 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.2 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 20%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 0%; over 1.5 goals in 40%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug · in model evidence

Newcastle

  • Newcastle: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Hull City19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Leeds14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Bournemouth5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Tottenham29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Liverpool23 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Fulham24 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Both teams score53%

Coventry

Expected goals1.03
Scores at least once64%
Scores 2 or more27%
Clean sheet18%

Newcastle

Expected goals1.71
Scores at least once82%
Scores 2 or more51%
Clean sheet36%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability14 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

14 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 2 h ago.

Coventry

  • A. AmendaOutCalf Injury
  • H. WrightOutMuscle Injury
  • J. EcclesOutInjury
  • J. LatibeaudiereDoubtfulInjury
  • K. Kesler-HaydenDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • L. WoolfendenOutKnee Injury
  • T. AwoniyiOutRed Card

Newcastle

  • A. ElangaOutKnee Injury
  • D. BurnDoubtfulAnkle Injury
  • E. JaouenOutMuscle Injury
  • J. RamseyDoubtfulInjury
  • JoelintonDoubtfulThigh Injury
  • V. LivramentoDoubtfulInjury
  • W. OsulaDoubtfulFoot Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season19th v 11th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Coventry

19th of 20 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L4 from 5 games · scored 1, conceded 10

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLLL (most recent last)

Newcastle

11th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 6, conceded 5) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 21 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Coventry to win22.4%22.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Draw24.5%24.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Newcastle to win53.1%53.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 44¢
Double chance
Coventry or draw limited evidence46.9%46.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 57¢
Newcastle or draw limited evidence77.6%77.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.5%75.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Draw no bet
Coventry to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence29.6%29.9% ± 0.2no
Newcastle to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence70.4%70.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.2%93.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.8%6.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence76.1%76.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 81¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence23.9%24.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 21¢
Over 2.5 goals in total51.5%51.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
Under 2.5 goals in total48.5%48.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence29.4%29.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 35¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence70.6%70.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence14.2%14.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence85.8%85.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence6.0%6.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence94.0%93.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence52.8%52.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 61¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence47.2%47.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Team goals
Coventry over 0.5 goals limited evidence64.1%64.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 75¢
Coventry under 0.5 goals limited evidence35.9%35.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 27¢
Coventry over 1.5 goals limited evidence27.4%27.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 38¢
Coventry under 1.5 goals limited evidence72.6%72.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 64¢
Coventry over 2.5 goals limited evidence8.5%8.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Coventry under 2.5 goals limited evidence91.5%91.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Coventry over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.1%2.1% ± 0.0no
Coventry under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.9%97.9% ± 0.0no
Newcastle over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.9%82.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Newcastle under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.1%17.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 20¢
Newcastle over 1.5 goals limited evidence51.0%51.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 50¢
Newcastle under 1.5 goals limited evidence49.0%48.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Newcastle over 2.5 goals limited evidence24.5%24.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Newcastle under 2.5 goals limited evidence75.5%75.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Newcastle over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.5%9.5% ± 0.1no
Newcastle under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.5%90.5% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Coventry to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.3%2.3% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Coventry to win by 2 or more limited evidence8.2%8.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Coventry to win by 1 or more limited evidence22.4%22.7% ± 0.1no
Coventry not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence46.9%46.8% ± 0.2no
Coventry not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence70.7%70.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Coventry not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence87.1%87.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Newcastle to win by 3 or more limited evidence12.9%13.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Newcastle to win by 2 or more limited evidence29.3%29.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Newcastle to win by 1 or more limited evidence53.1%53.2% ± 0.2no
Newcastle not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence77.6%77.3% ± 0.1no
Newcastle not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence91.8%91.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Newcastle not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.7%97.7% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 97¢
Clean sheet
Coventry clean sheet grid18.1%17.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 20¢
Newcastle clean sheet grid35.9%35.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 27¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.1% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry by exactly 1—14.5% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry by exactly 2—5.8% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry by exactly 3—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by exactly 4—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Newcastle by exactly 1—23.8% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 2—16.3% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 3—8.3% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 4—3.2% ± 0.1not listed
Newcastle by exactly 5—1.1% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Newcastle by 6 or more—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Coventry 1–1 Newcastle—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry 0–1 Newcastle—11.0% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry 1–2 Newcastle—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry 0–2 Newcastle—9.4% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry 1–0 Newcastle—6.6% ± 0.1not listed

Coventry v Newcastle: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
22%
30%
YES on Coventry to WinCoventry wins in 90 minutes
22%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 125,523 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
53%
44%
YES on Newcastle to WinNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
53%44¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 265,848 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,948 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawCoventry or Newcastle wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%74¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 133,683 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle to WinCoventry wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
47%57¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 28,228 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry to WinNewcastle wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
78%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 12,761 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 29,694 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,847 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
76%
80%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
76%81¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 18,739 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
24%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 31,196 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
56%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
51%57¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,561 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
49%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 61,931 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
29%35¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,476 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
71%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24,191 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,793 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 15,150 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,289 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25,946 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
61%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%61¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,437 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,450 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Winning margin
Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCoventry wins by 2 goals or more
8%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,827 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 1 goal · Coventry not by 2+ goals
92%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,946 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCoventry wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37,836 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 2 goals or fewer · Coventry not by 3+ goals
98%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 79,512 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 2 goals or more
29%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 22,991 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCoventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal · Newcastle not by 2+ goals
71%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 19,922 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNewcastle wins by 3 goals or more
13%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,856 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCoventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle not by 3+ goals
87%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 26,396 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Team goals
Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
64%
74%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 0.5 GoalsCoventry scores 1 goal or more
64%75¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,975 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry Over 0.5 GoalsCoventry does not score · Coventry under 0.5 goals
36%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,475 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
37%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 1.5 GoalsCoventry scores 2 goals or more
27%38¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,962 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry Over 1.5 GoalsCoventry scores 1 goal or fewer · Coventry under 1.5 goals
73%64¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,608 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Coventry Over 2.5 GoalsCoventry scores 3 goals or more
9%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 60 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Coventry Over 2.5 GoalsCoventry scores 2 goals or fewer · Coventry under 2.5 goals
91%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,215 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 0.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 1 goal or more
82%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 0.5 GoalsNewcastle does not score · Newcastle under 0.5 goals
18%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 1.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 2 goals or more
51%50¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,392 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 1.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 1 goal or fewer · Newcastle under 1.5 goals
49%51¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 103 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Newcastle Over 2.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 3 goals or more
25%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,942 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Newcastle Over 2.5 GoalsNewcastle scores 2 goals or fewer · Newcastle under 2.5 goals
75%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,638 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 22.4% · draw 24.5% · away 53.1%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.71
Coventry eligible matches
5 (5 with xG)
Newcastle eligible matches
137 (137 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

CoventryOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptNottingham Forestaway1–00.67–1.10W
13 SeptBrightonhome0–51.33–2.81L
5 SeptManchester Cityaway0–11.37–2.12L
29 AugHull Cityhome0–11.29–0.72L
21 AugArsenalaway0–30.20–1.88L
NewcastleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptHull Cityhome2–11.44–1.59W
14 SeptLeedsaway1–40.88–2.08L
5 SeptBournemouthhome2–20.71–1.37D
29 AugTottenhamaway2–00.72–1.12W
23 AugLiverpoolhome2–21.58–2.98D
24 MayFulhamaway0–20.31–1.81L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT12COVNEW-BTTS
52.8%60.5%−7.7 pts0.60 / 0.610.402,437 / 6,450Comparable
seen 28 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-COV
22.4%29.5%−7.1 pts0.29 / 0.300.71125,523 / 12,761Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW
53.1%43.5%+9.6 pts0.43 / 0.440.57265,848 / 28,228Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-TIE
24.5%26.5%−2.0 pts0.26 / 0.270.742,948 / 133,683Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2
8.2%12.5%−4.3 pts0.12 / 0.130.8814,827 / 2,946Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3
2.3%4.0%−1.7 pts0.03 / 0.050.9737,836 / 79,512Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2
29.3%22.5%+6.8 pts0.22 / 0.230.7822,991 / 19,922Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3
12.9%8.5%+4.4 pts0.08 / 0.090.921,856 / 26,396Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV1
64.1%74.0%−9.9 pts0.73 / 0.750.277,975 / 3,475Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2
27.4%37.0%−9.6 pts0.36 / 0.380.642,962 / 7,608Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3
8.5%14.0%−5.5 pts0.13 / 0.150.8760 / 2,215Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW1
81.9%81.0%+0.9 pts0.80 / 0.820.20500 / 505Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2
51.0%49.5%+1.5 pts0.49 / 0.500.514,392 / 103Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3
24.5%22.0%+2.5 pts0.21 / 0.230.791,942 / 5,638Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-1
93.2%94.5%−1.3 pts0.94 / 0.950.0629,694 / 14,847Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-2
76.1%80.0%−3.9 pts0.79 / 0.810.2118,739 / 31,196Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-3
51.5%56.5%−5.0 pts0.56 / 0.570.441,561 / 61,931Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-4
29.4%34.5%−5.1 pts0.34 / 0.350.662,476 / 24,191Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-5
14.2%17.5%−3.3 pts0.17 / 0.180.832,793 / 15,150Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-6
6.0%7.5%−1.5 pts0.07 / 0.080.932,289 / 25,946Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:09:08.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home30.2%29.6% – 31.4%31.7%3.151022.4%−7.8 pts
1x2:draw26.6%25.6% – 27.2%27.8%3.601024.5%−2.1 pts
1x2:away43.2%41.4% – 44.1%45.2%2.211053.1%+9.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:45 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.556.5%55.6% – 57.6%59.7%1.68851.5%−5.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.543.5%42.4% – 44.4%45.5%2.20848.5%+5.0 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:48 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.23 · draw 3.64 · home 3.2411/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.20 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.59 · home 3.2211/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.14 · draw 3.25 · home 2.8211/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.50 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.60 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.27 · draw 3.70 · home 3.2911/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.22 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.70 · home 3.1311/10/2026, 09:30:4511/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.1811/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.74 · under 2.5 2.1811/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2111/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:30:4811/10/2026, 09:15:21

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:09:08.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:51 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 21 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Coventryok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Newcastleok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 21 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home22.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away53.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x46.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x277.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes52.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.576.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.523.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.551.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.548.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.529.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.570.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.514.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.585.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.56.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.564.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.535.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.527.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.572.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.581.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.518.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.551.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.549.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.524.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.575.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.59.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.590.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.52.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.597.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.58.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.591.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.522.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.577.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.546.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.553.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.570.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.529.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.587.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.512.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home29.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away70.4%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 439 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:09:08