Records
How the model predicts matches, and how the strategies you saved before kick-off turned out. Estimates are the model's; outcomes are facts; money is simulated — nothing is placed.
Estimated versus verified
Over prospective saved sets whose every combination is verified. Estimated figures are means of the saved model estimates; verified figures are frequencies of what happened; simulated money assumes the frozen prices and that nothing was placed.
Optimized sets
- Estimated: ≥1 wins
- 42.9%
- Verified: ≥1 won
- 0.0%
- Estimated expected gross
- $35.20
- Simulated mean gross
- $0.00
- Outlay covered (simulated)
- 0.0%
- Simulated total before fees
- $-25.00
- Evidence
- 1 verified — far too few to judge (30 needed before it counts as early evidence)
Top-N baselines
- Estimated: ≥1 wins
- 38.8%
- Verified: ≥1 won
- 0.0%
- Estimated expected gross
- $36.97
- Simulated mean gross
- $0.00
- Outlay covered (simulated)
- 0.0%
- Simulated total before fees
- $-25.00
- Evidence
- 1 verified — far too few to judge (30 needed before it counts as early evidence)
Selections verified so far (optimized arm): 29 — 29 verified — far too few to judge (30 needed before it counts as early evidence); mean model estimate 59.5%, verified win rate 48.3%, Brier 0.253.
Full comparison table
| Estimated: ≥1 wins | Verified: ≥1 won | Estimated expected gross | Simulated mean gross | Outlay covered (simulated) | Simulated total before fees | Evidence |
|---|
| Optimized sets | 42.9% | 0.0% | $35.20 | $0.00 | 0.0% | $-25.00 | 1 verified — far too few to judge (30 needed before it counts as early evidence) |
| Top-N baselines | 38.8% | 0.0% | $36.97 | $0.00 | 0.0% | $-25.00 | 1 verified — far too few to judge (30 needed before it counts as early evidence) |
predicted values are means of the saved model estimates; verified values are frequencies over independently verified outcomes; simulated money assumes the frozen prices and nothing placed; a slate saved more than once is counted once (identical arm, combination or selection: the earliest save); below 30 settled items the comparison is 'insufficient' and below 100 'early' — never validated.
Saved sets
7 saved. 1 verified · 6 pending · 0 disputed. Each saved set is its own record: a set's combinations are not independent match predictions and never enter the model performance figures.
Set #7 · saved 10 Oct 2026, 20:08
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 10 Oct 2026, 20:08 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · no match shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 0 of 5 combinations verified; 3 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 61.4%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $43.64
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 25% · would pay $50.52 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 2 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 19% · would pay $50.06 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 90.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on DrawpendingOsasuna or Racing Santander wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Osasuna v Racing Santander · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 79.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.75
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingLevante wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 71.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Manchester City to Winlost (verified)Liverpool wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 62.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 3 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 16% · would pay $51.82 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on RB Leipzig to WinpendingBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 87.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Coventry to WinpendingNewcastle wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 76.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.70
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Nottingham Forest to Winwon (verified)Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 68.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Aston Villa to WinpendingAston Villa wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Real Sociedad to Winlost (verified)Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 53.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.41
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 1 of 5 selections verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $50.59 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on SC Freiburg to WinpendingBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 80.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.81
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on DrawpendingBrentford or Liverpool wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Brentford v Liverpool · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 76.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.75
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Athletic Club to WinpendingValencia wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 63.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to WinpendingEintracht Frankfurt wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 16 Oct 2026, 11:30
- Model estimate
- 55.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 12% · would pay $50.80 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Nottingham Forest to WinpendingArsenal wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 80.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.87
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Drawlost (verified)Elche or Celta Vigo wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 74.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.72
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on FSV Mainz 05 to WinpendingFC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 64.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.61
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Chelsea to WinpendingEverton wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Everton v Chelsea · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 60.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.56
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Atletico Madrid to WinpendingEspanyol wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Espanyol v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 52.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.46
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 0 of 5 combinations verified- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 49.3%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $61.86
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 25% · would pay $50.52 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 2 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $51.07 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 90.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 3 · Pending — 0 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $50.09 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingLevante wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 71.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 4 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $55.70 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 23% · would pay $51.07 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on RB Leipzig to WinpendingBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 87.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint 85874a83ebcae3cd… · content hash af0ea459c832a4a4… · search best found
Set #6 · saved 10 Oct 2026, 15:38
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 10 Oct 2026, 15:33 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · no match shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 0 of 5 combinations verified; 3 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 62.7%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $45.14
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 of 5 selections verifiedestimated 23% · would pay $51.41 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on DrawpendingOsasuna or Racing Santander wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Osasuna v Racing Santander · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 79.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.75
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on FC Augsburg to WinpendingSV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 73.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 2 · Pending — 0 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $50.36 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on DrawpendingVillarreal or Elche wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Villarreal v Elche · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 82.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.82
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingLevante wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 71.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.44
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 3 · Pending — 2 selections verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 17% · would pay $50.25 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 90.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Drawlost (verified)Racing Santander or Valencia wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 77.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.74
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Nottingham Forest to Winwon (verified)Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 68.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Aston Villa to WinpendingAston Villa wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Real Sociedad to Winlost (verified)Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 53.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.40
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 14% · would pay $50.83 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on SC Freiburg to WinpendingBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 80.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.81
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Athletic Club to WinpendingValencia wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 63.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Atletico Madrid to WinpendingEspanyol wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Espanyol v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 52.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.46
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 13% · would pay $50.25 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on RB Leipzig to WinpendingBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 87.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on 1. FC Köln to WinpendingEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 16 Oct 2026, 11:30
- Model estimate
- 76.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.74
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Manchester City to Winlost (verified)Liverpool wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 62.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Chelsea to WinpendingEverton wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Everton v Chelsea · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 60.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.56
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Newcastle to WinpendingNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 52.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 0 of 5 combinations verified- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 49.3%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $62.99
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 25% · would pay $51.67 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.44
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 2 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $52.23 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 18 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 90.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.44
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 3 · Pending — 0 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $50.09 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Sevilla to WinpendingLevante wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 71.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 4 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 24% · would pay $56.96 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Ipswich to WinpendingManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 92.7%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.93
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.44
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspending2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 58.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.39
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 of 4 selections verifiedestimated 23% · would pay $52.23 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on RB Leipzig to WinpendingBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 87.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.92
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Everton to Winwon (verified)Hull City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 70.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to WinpendingReal Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
- Kick-off
- 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 61.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.44
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Fulham to WinpendingHull City wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
- Match
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 61.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.43
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint d445f043ba25776a… · content hash 5b29df6b752bd8fa… · search best found
Set #5 · saved 9 Oct 2026, 20:25
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 9 Oct 2026, 20:25 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · no match shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 4 of 5 combinations verified; 5 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 53.0%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $35.45
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $51.83 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 15% · would pay $50.62 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 53.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 13% · would pay $51.47 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 59.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Manchester United to Winlost (verified)Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 54.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.46
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 2 selections verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 11% · would pay $50.04 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.61
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Union Berlin v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 59.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 1–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 52.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.50
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Lost — verifiedestimated 10% · would pay $50.08 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Aston Villa v Brentford · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 57.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to Winwon (verified)Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v Osasuna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 54.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Real Betis v Osasuna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 50.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 5–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 4 of 5 combinations verified; 3 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 42.1%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $57.75
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $59.11 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $51.83 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $52.64 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $60.25 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Won — every selection verifiedestimated 20% · would pay $51.36 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $51.36
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.61
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint 749f5075c7615c06… · content hash 1a5d8c39f2621870… · search best found
Set #4 · saved 9 Oct 2026, 18:48
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 9 Oct 2026, 18:47 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · no match shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 3 of 5 combinations verified; 5 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 54.0%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $36.75
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $51.83 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 16% · would pay $50.88 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Newcastle to WinpendingNewcastle wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 52.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.45
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 13% · would pay $50.12 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 68.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.76
- Verified score
- 6–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalspending3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 52.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Status
- no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Combination 4 · Lost — verifiedestimated 11% · would pay $51.47 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 59.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Aston Villa v Brentford · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 57.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Manchester United to Winlost (verified)Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 54.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.46
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Lost — verifiedestimated 11% · would pay $52.52 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.61
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 53.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 4 of 5 combinations verified; 3 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 42.1%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $57.58
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $59.11 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $51.83 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $51.83 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.53
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $60.25 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Won — every selection verifiedestimated 20% · would pay $51.36 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $51.36
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.61
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.28
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint e3821d74db9f285b… · content hash 33cbcf0800f5e6a3… · search best found
Set #3 · saved 8 Oct 2026, 09:08
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 8 Oct 2026, 09:06 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · matches may be shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 3 of 5 combinations verified; 4 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 48.6%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $37.64
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 19% · would pay $50.20 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Union Berlin v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 59.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 1–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 18% · would pay $50.64 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 10% · would pay $50.12 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 59.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Manchester United to Winlost (verified)Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Manchester United v Tottenham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 54.0%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.58
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 53.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Sunderland v Brighton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 51.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.54
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Won — every selection verifiedestimated 16% · would pay $51.45 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $51.45
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Aston Villa v Brentford · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 57.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Ipswich v Fulham · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 12% · would pay $50.87 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.69
- Verified score
- 2–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Aston Villa v Brentford · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 57.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 2 of 5 combinations verified; 3 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 40.3%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $45.89
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 19% · would pay $50.20 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Union Berlin v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 59.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 1–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 18% · would pay $55.48 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Aston Villa v Brentford · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 57.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 18% · would pay $50.64 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 17% · would pay $50.20 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
YES on RB Leipzig to Winwon (verified)RB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 55.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.63
- Verified score
- 6–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Lost — verifiedestimated 17% · would pay $50.64 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Model estimate
- 62.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 5–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 53.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint 0e8296552dd81561… · content hash 2691a5d52542f2ec… · search best found
Set #2 · saved 8 Oct 2026, 09:08
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 8 Oct 2026, 09:06 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · matches may be shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Verified: all 5 lost- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 42.9%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $35.20
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Simulated gross payout
- $0.00
- Simulated result before fees
- $-25.00
- Hypothetical outlay covered (simulated)
- no
- About these figures
- simulated from the frozen prices as if every selection had been placed; nothing was placed, so no money was won or lost; simulated gross payout minus hypothetical outlay; no fee is deducted (Kalshi quotes no such combination), so this is never a net result.
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $52.77 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $51.90 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 52.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.50
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 13% · would pay $56.68 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.62
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Lost — verifiedestimated 11% · would pay $53.02 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Real Betis to Winwon (verified)Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
- Match
- Real Betis v Osasuna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 54.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.64
- Verified score
- 5–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Real Betis v Osasuna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Model estimate
- 50.5%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 5–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Lost — verifiedestimated 12% · would pay $56.81 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.62
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Verified: all 5 lost- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 38.8%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $36.97
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Simulated gross payout
- $0.00
- Simulated result before fees
- $-25.00
- Hypothetical outlay covered (simulated)
- no
- About these figures
- simulated from the frozen prices as if every selection had been placed; nothing was placed, so no money was won or lost; simulated gross payout minus hypothetical outlay; no fee is deducted (Kalshi quotes no such combination), so this is never a net result.
Combination 1 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $52.77 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $54.07 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $55.22 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $50.66 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 52.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.50
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $51.90 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 52.2%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.50
- Verified score
- 3–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint 442b6bd058828e01… · content hash a6b58b51441078f4… · search best found
Set #1 · saved 8 Oct 2026, 09:08
Prospective: saved before every kick-offevaluated 8 Oct 2026, 09:06 · target $50.00 per winning combination · 5 × $5.00 = $25.00 hypothetical · matches may be shared between combinations · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
Optimized set
Pending: 4 of 5 combinations verified; 4 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 56.7%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $44.26
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Won — every selection verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $51.45 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $51.45
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Malaga v Espanyol · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 9 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 64.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 20% · would pay $50.03 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Liverpool v Manchester City · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 59.8%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.62
- Verified score
- 0–3
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 15% · would pay $50.62 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 54.1%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 1–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Elche v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 53.3%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.48
- Verified score
- 0–0
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Lost — verifiedestimated 14% · would pay $51.69 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Model estimate
- 53.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.49
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Model estimate
- 52.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.47
- Verified score
- 3–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Model estimate
- 50.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.42
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Pending — 1 selection verified lost, so it cannot winestimated 16% · would pay $50.89 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 62.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.65
- Verified score
- 2–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
Top-N baseline (same instant)
Pending: 3 of 5 combinations verified; 2 already cannot win- Estimated chance at least one wins
- 42.4%
- Model-estimated expected gross payout
- $58.77
- Hypothetical outlay
- $25.00 (5 × $5.00)
- Verified outcome
- not yet verified — no simulated payout is shown until every selection is settled by two agreeing sources
Combination 1 · Won — every selection verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $51.45 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $51.45
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Malaga v Espanyol · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 9 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 64.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 2 · Lost — verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $54.42 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 3 · Lost — verifiedestimated 22% · would pay $56.40 on a hypothetical $5.00 · simulated gross payout $0.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Malaga v Espanyol · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 9 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 64.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalslost (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Hull City v Everton · Premier League
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Model estimate
- 64.4%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.52
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 4 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 21% · would pay $55.48 on a hypothetical $5.00
YES on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)3 goals or more in total
- Match
- Racing Santander v Valencia · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 65.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.57
- Verified score
- 2–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized yes
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Combination 5 · Pending — 2 of 3 selections verifiedestimated 20% · would pay $57.50 on a hypothetical $5.00
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Malaga v Espanyol · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 9 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Model estimate
- 64.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.55
- Verified score
- 1–1
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
NO on Over 2.5 Goalspostponed2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Model estimate
- 60.6%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.51
- Status
- the match was postponed or suspended; no verified final score for this match yet; Kalshi has not finalized this market yet
NO on Over 2.5 Goalswon (verified)2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
- Match
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- 10 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Model estimate
- 51.9%
- Kalshi ask when saved
- 0.31
- Verified score
- 0–2
- Kalshi settlement
- finalized no
- Status
- the ledger-proven result and Kalshi's settlement agree
Benchmark only, not something you chose: the top-ranked combinations at the same instant, kept so the saved set can be judged against them.
fingerprint 620a64fa03a0995a… · content hash 3f30c478f409e6e9… · search best found
Model probabilities are what was saved at the evaluation instant; outcomes are verified only when the ledger-proven sports result and Kalshi's reported settlement agree. Nothing was placed: outlays are hypothetical, payouts are simulated from the frozen prices (stake × multiplier when every selection is verified won), and the simulated result before fees is simulated gross payout − hypothetical outlay; fees are unknown, so it is never a net result. Only evaluations saved before every included kick-off (stored and current schedule) count towards the comparison. Nothing below the maturity thresholds is validated evidence; counts are shown so the reader can judge.