Records

Paper record

Hypothetical single contracts recorded from the Lab before kick-off at the side’s ask with Kalshi’s published fee as assumed at the time. Nothing was placed; simulated money is contracts × $1 when won minus cost and the assumed fee. Never mixed with saved sets or with model performance.

No paper position is settled yet: 36 pending with $167.58 of hypothetical outlay.

Paper positions

1. NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Juventus v Lazio · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 11:45

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   89.2% · 88.8%

   Ask · break-even

   88¢ · 88.8%

   Position

   5 contracts · cost $4.40 + fee $0.04 = $4.44

   Expected net at save

   +$0.02

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 619 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

2. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   90.8% · 90.0%

   Ask · break-even

   89¢ · 89.8%

   Position

   5 contracts · cost $4.45 + fee $0.04 = $4.49

   Expected net at save

   +$0.05

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 609 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 17:10 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

3. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Juventus v Lazio · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 11:45

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   79.3% · 77.5%

   Ask · break-even

   76¢ · 77.3%

   Position

   6 contracts · cost $4.56 + fee $0.08 = $4.64

   Expected net at save

   +$0.12

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 619 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

4. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Angers v Marseille · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   84.7% · 83.5%

   Ask · break-even

   82¢ · 83.2%

   Position

   6 contracts · cost $4.92 + fee $0.07 = $4.99

   Expected net at save

   +$0.09

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 595 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 17:10 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

5. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Le Havre v Auxerre · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 08:15

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   76.7% · 74.9%

   Ask · break-even

   73¢ · 74.5%

   Position

   6 contracts · cost $4.38 + fee $0.09 = $4.47

   Expected net at save

   +$0.13

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 603 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

6. NO on Chelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Everton v Chelsea · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 04:30

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   81.1% · 80.6%

   Ask · break-even

   79¢ · 80.2%

   Position

   6 contracts · cost $4.74 + fee $0.07 = $4.81

   Expected net at save

   +$0.06

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 543 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

7. NO on Monaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Lorient v Monaco · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 08:15

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   78.6% · 78.0%

   Ask · break-even

   76¢ · 77.3%

   Position

   6 contracts · cost $4.56 + fee $0.08 = $4.64

   Expected net at save

   +$0.08

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 605 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 17:56 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

8. YES on Over 0.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   93.9% · 93.5%

   Ask · break-even

   92¢ · 92.6%

   Position

   5 contracts · cost $4.60 + fee $0.03 = $4.63

   Expected net at save

   +$0.06

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 533 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

9. NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

   Match

   Juventus v Lazio · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 11:45

   Saved

   11 Oct 2026, 20:13

   Got%OnIt · conservative

   73.2% · 72.6%

   Ask · break-even

   70¢ · 71.6%

   Position

   7 contracts · cost $4.90 + fee $0.11 = $5.01

   Expected net at save

   +$0.11

   Evidence

   Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 619 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

10. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    78.6% · 75.6%

    Ask · break-even

    73¢ · 74.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.38 + fee $0.09 = $4.47

    Expected net at save

    +$0.25

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 621 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

11. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    80.2% · 78.5%

    Ask · break-even

    76¢ · 77.3%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.56 + fee $0.08 = $4.64

    Expected net at save

    +$0.17

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 583 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

12. NO on AC Milan to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    AC Milan v Atalanta · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    92.3% · 92.0%

    Ask · break-even

    90¢ · 90.8%

    Position

    5 contracts · cost $4.50 + fee $0.04 = $4.54

    Expected net at save

    +$0.08

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 613 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:05 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

13. NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    88.6% · 88.2%

    Ask · break-even

    86¢ · 87.0%

    Position

    5 contracts · cost $4.30 + fee $0.05 = $4.35

    Expected net at save

    +$0.08

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 533 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

14. NO on Angers to WinPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Angers v Marseille · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    76.5% · 74.0%

    Ask · break-even

    71¢ · 72.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.97 + fee $0.11 = $5.08

    Expected net at save

    +$0.27

    Evidence

    Evaluated · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 595 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 18:28 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

15. NO on Inter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Bologna v Inter · Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    70.0% · 69.4%

    Ask · break-even

    66¢ · 67.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.62 + fee $0.11 = $4.73

    Expected net at save

    +$0.17

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 569 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:05 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

16. NO on Atletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Espanyol v Atletico Madrid · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    76.0% · 75.4%

    Ask · break-even

    72¢ · 73.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.32 + fee $0.09 = $4.41

    Expected net at save

    +$0.15

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 545 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

17. NO on Angers to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Angers v Marseille · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    91.2% · 90.8%

    Ask · break-even

    88¢ · 88.8%

    Position

    5 contracts · cost $4.40 + fee $0.04 = $4.44

    Expected net at save

    +$0.12

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 595 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

18. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    AS Roma v Genoa · Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    89.0% · 88.1%

    Ask · break-even

    85¢ · 86.0%

    Position

    5 contracts · cost $4.25 + fee $0.05 = $4.30

    Expected net at save

    +$0.15

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 581 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

19. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Fiorentina v Como · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    87.0% · 86.1%

    Ask · break-even

    83¢ · 84.0%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.98 + fee $0.06 = $5.04

    Expected net at save

    +$0.18

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 597 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

20. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Fiorentina v Como · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    72.5% · 70.7%

    Ask · break-even

    67¢ · 68.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.69 + fee $0.11 = $4.80

    Expected net at save

    +$0.28

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 597 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

21. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    78.5% · 76.8%

    Ask · break-even

    73¢ · 74.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.38 + fee $0.09 = $4.47

    Expected net at save

    +$0.24

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 609 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

22. NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    70.6% · 70.0%

    Ask · break-even

    66¢ · 67.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.62 + fee $0.11 = $4.73

    Expected net at save

    +$0.21

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 621 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

23. YES on Over 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    76.8% · 76.2%

    Ask · break-even

    72¢ · 73.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.32 + fee $0.09 = $4.41

    Expected net at save

    +$0.20

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 533 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

24. NO on Brighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Brighton v Crystal Palace · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    87.2% · 86.7%

    Ask · break-even

    83¢ · 84.0%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.98 + fee $0.06 = $5.04

    Expected net at save

    +$0.19

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 591 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 15:49 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

25. NO on Sevilla to WinPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    71.9% · 70.6%

    Ask · break-even

    66¢ · 67.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.62 + fee $0.11 = $4.73

    Expected net at save

    +$0.30

    Evidence

    Evaluated · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 533 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

26. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Real Betis v Barcelona · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    72.2% · 69.0%

    Ask · break-even

    64¢ · 65.7%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.48 + fee $0.12 = $4.60

    Expected net at save

    +$0.45

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 575 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

27. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    84.3% · 81.9%

    Ask · break-even

    77¢ · 78.3%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.62 + fee $0.08 = $4.70

    Expected net at save

    +$0.36

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 549 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 16:52 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

28. NO on AC Milan to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    AC Milan v Atalanta · Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    79.9% · 79.3%

    Ask · break-even

    74¢ · 75.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.44 + fee $0.09 = $4.53

    Expected net at save

    +$0.26

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 613 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

29. YES on Levante Over 0.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    80.0% · 79.4%

    Ask · break-even

    74¢ · 75.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.44 + fee $0.09 = $4.53

    Expected net at save

    +$0.27

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 533 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

30. NO on Arsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    71.3% · 70.7%

    Ask · break-even

    65¢ · 66.7%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.55 + fee $0.12 = $4.67

    Expected net at save

    +$0.32

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 609 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

31. NO on Over 3.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    AS Roma v Genoa · Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    75.5% · 73.7%

    Ask · break-even

    68¢ · 69.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.76 + fee $0.11 = $4.87

    Expected net at save

    +$0.42

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 581 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:05 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

32. NO on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    85.0% · 84.5%

    Ask · break-even

    79¢ · 80.2%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.74 + fee $0.07 = $4.81

    Expected net at save

    +$0.29

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 583 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 20:04 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

33. NO on AS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    AS Roma v Genoa · Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    84.0% · 83.5%

    Ask · break-even

    77¢ · 78.3%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.62 + fee $0.08 = $4.70

    Expected net at save

    +$0.34

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 581 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

34. NO on Over 4.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026, 08:15

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    77.1% · 75.8%

    Ask · break-even

    68¢ · 69.6%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.76 + fee $0.11 = $4.87

    Expected net at save

    +$0.53

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 567 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 12:38 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

35. NO on Brighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Brighton v Crystal Palace · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    71.5% · 70.9%

    Ask · break-even

    63¢ · 64.7%

    Position

    7 contracts · cost $4.41 + fee $0.12 = $4.53

    Expected net at save

    +$0.48

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 591 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

36. NO on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPending · match not played yet

    Match

    Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30

    Saved

    11 Oct 2026, 20:13

    Got%OnIt · conservative

    81.5% · 81.0%

    Ask · break-even

    73¢ · 74.5%

    Position

    6 contracts · cost $4.38 + fee $0.09 = $4.47

    Expected net at save

    +$0.42

    Evidence

    Model-supported · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · snapshot 611 · quote 11 Oct 2026, 19:32 · aligned preset auto-record: saved the first time this contract side qualified; hypothetical, never an order

Paper positions are hypothetical trades recorded before kick-off at the executable ask with Kalshi's published fee as assumed at the time; nothing was placed. Simulated net = contracts × $1 when won, else $0, minus cost and the assumed fee. It is never an actual trading return and is never mixed with saved-set figures. Settled only when the ledger-proven sports result under the market-cell rule and Kalshi's finalized result agree. Below 30 settled positions the record is insufficient evidence of anything; below 100 it is early.