Got%OnIt

Records

How the model predicts matches, and how the strategies you saved before kick-off turned out. Estimates are the model's; outcomes are facts; money is simulated — nothing is placed.

Predictions evaluated
118
Settled
28
Pending
90
Correct · incorrect
15 · 13
Data
1 issue: 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h

Model performance

soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · working engine
Evaluated
118
Settled
28
Pending
90
Correct · incorrect
15 · 13
Market
Match result (1X2)
Accuracy (secondary)
53.6%
Brier score
0.600
Log loss
1.002
Ranked probability score
0.188
Sample
28 settled — far too few to judge (30 needed for early evidence)
Calibration status
insufficient: 28 settled; reliability bands need 30
Latest settled match
Cagliari v Juventus 1–1 · incorrect
Coverage
118 fixtures with a snapshot for this identity · 28 settled · 0 excluded (void 0, unsupported 0, irregular 0)
Data freshness
sports results 25 min ago · last settlement run 11 Oct 2026, 20:39

1X2 scores use the full probability vector (Brier 0–2); binary markets are single questions (Brier 0–1). Every row is the latest genuine pre-kickoff snapshot of its fixture for one model identity; identities are never pooled.

Competitions
Bundesliga: 9 settled / 18La Liga: 8 settled / 21Ligue 1: 1 settled / 10Premier League: 9 settled / 20Serie A: 1 settled / 13UEFA Champions League: 0 settled / 36
Reset

Match by match

118 predictions in this filter · page 1 of 3 · newest kick-off first · the overview and analysis above cover every prediction in the filter, not only this page.

  1. Club Brugge KV v Lenspending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Club Brugge KV (45%) · H 45% · D 21% · A 34%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    23 / 7 eligible matches · cold start
  2. Real Betis v Feyenoordpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Real Betis (69%) · H 69% · D 16% · A 15%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    1 / 19 eligible matches · cold start
  3. Real Madrid v RB Leipzigpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Real Madrid (76%) · H 76% · D 14% · A 11%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    41 / 17 eligible matches · cold start
  4. Inter v Shakhtar Donetskpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Inter (64%) · H 64% · D 21% · A 15%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    33 / 15 eligible matches · cold start
  5. Sporting CP v Lask Linzpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Sporting CP (57%) · H 57% · D 24% · A 19%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    23 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
  6. Bayern München v Arsenalpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Bayern München (43%) · H 43% · D 26% · A 31%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    41 / 39 eligible matches
  7. Aston Villa v Vikingpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Aston Villa (74%) · H 74% · D 15% · A 11%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (231.9 h before)
    Evidence
    13 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
  8. Levante v Athletic Clubpending
    Match
    La Liga · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Athletic Club (38%) · H 36% · D 26% · A 38%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (230.9 h before)
    Evidence
    44 / 120 eligible matches
  9. Como v Manchester Unitedpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 09:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Como (52%) · H 52% · D 20% · A 28%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (229.6 h before)
    Evidence
    1 / 7 eligible matches · cold start
  10. Lille v Galatasaraypending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 21 Oct 2026, 09:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Lille (54%) · H 54% · D 22% · A 24%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (229.6 h before)
    Evidence
    11 / 19 eligible matches · cold start
  11. AS Roma v Slovan Bratislavapending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    AS Roma (73%) · H 73% · D 15% · A 11%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    1 / 9 eligible matches · cold start
  12. Napoli v Bodo/Glimtpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Napoli (44%) · H 44% · D 23% · A 33%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    17 / 13 eligible matches
  13. FC Porto v PSV Eindhovenpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    FC Porto (42%) · H 42% · D 24% · A 34%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    9 / 29 eligible matches · cold start
  14. VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madridpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    VfB Stuttgart (39%) · H 39% · D 23% · A 38%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    9 / 37 eligible matches · cold start
  15. Paris Saint Germain v Barcelonapending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Paris Saint Germain (64%) · H 64% · D 17% · A 19%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    45 / 37 eligible matches
  16. Manchester City v AEK Athens FCpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Manchester City (56%) · H 56% · D 23% · A 21%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    31 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
  17. Liverpool v Villarrealpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Liverpool (82%) · H 82% · D 12% · A 6%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (218.5 h before)
    Evidence
    23 / 9 eligible matches
  18. Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmundpending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 09:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Borussia Dortmund (57%) · H 22% · D 21% · A 57%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (216.2 h before)
    Evidence
    1 / 37 eligible matches · cold start
  19. Fenerbahçe v Slavia Prahapending
    Match
    UEFA Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 09:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Fenerbahçe (62%) · H 62% · D 20% · A 18%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (216.2 h before)
    Evidence
    1 / 9 eligible matches · cold start
  20. Getafe v Rayo Vallecanopending
    Match
    La Liga · 19 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Getafe (35%) · H 35% · D 33% · A 32%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (183.9 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 121 eligible matches
  21. Tottenham v Coventrypending
    Match
    Premier League · 19 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Tottenham (54%) · H 54% · D 25% · A 21%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (183.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 5 eligible matches · cold start
  22. Parma v Torinopending
    Match
    Serie A · 19 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Torino (38%) · H 33% · D 29% · A 38%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (183.6 h before)
    Evidence
    82 / 119 eligible matches
  23. Monza v Cagliaripending
    Match
    Serie A · 19 Oct 2026, 09:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Cagliari (39%) · H 34% · D 27% · A 39%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (181.4 h before)
    Evidence
    82 / 120 eligible matches · cold start
  24. Real Madrid v Sevillapending
    Match
    La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Real Madrid (74%) · H 74% · D 16% · A 10%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (159.9 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 121 eligible matches
  25. Lyon v Nicepending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Lyon (55%) · H 55% · D 23% · A 22%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (159.6 h before)
    Evidence
    108 / 108 eligible matches
  26. Juventus v Laziopending
    Match
    Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Juventus (52%) · H 52% · D 26% · A 21%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (159.6 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 120 eligible matches
  27. Malaga v Real Sociedadpending
    Match
    La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 09:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Real Sociedad (44%) · H 28% · D 28% · A 44%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (157.4 h before)
    Evidence
    8 / 122 eligible matches · cold start
  28. AC Milan v Atalantapending
    Match
    Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    AC Milan (42%) · H 42% · D 26% · A 33%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 119 eligible matches
  29. Borussia Mönchengladbach v 1899 Hoffenheimpending
    Match
    Bundesliga · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%) · H 40% · D 23% · A 37%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.4 h before)
    Evidence
    107 / 107 eligible matches
  30. Nottingham Forest v Arsenalpending
    Match
    Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Arsenal (55%) · H 20% · D 26% · A 55%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.4 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 120 eligible matches
  31. Paris FC v Rennespending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 08:15
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Paris FC (44%) · H 44% · D 24% · A 32%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.1 h before)
    Evidence
    40 / 108 eligible matches
  32. Le Havre v Auxerrepending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 08:15
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Le Havre (41%) · H 41% · D 27% · A 32%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.1 h before)
    Evidence
    108 / 74 eligible matches
  33. Lorient v Monacopending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 08:15
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Monaco (43%) · H 32% · D 25% · A 43%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (156.1 h before)
    Evidence
    74 / 108 eligible matches
  34. Celta Vigo v Alavespending
    Match
    La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 07:15
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Celta Vigo (47%) · H 47% · D 27% · A 26%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (155.1 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 122 eligible matches
  35. Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburgpending
    Match
    Bundesliga · 18 Oct 2026, 06:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Bayer Leverkusen (60%) · H 60% · D 21% · A 19%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (154.4 h before)
    Evidence
    107 / 107 eligible matches
  36. Angers v Marseillepending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Marseille (53%) · H 24% · D 24% · A 53%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (153.9 h before)
    Evidence
    74 / 108 eligible matches
  37. Fiorentina v Comopending
    Match
    Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Como (45%) · H 29% · D 26% · A 45%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (153.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 82 eligible matches
  38. Leeds v Manchester Unitedpending
    Match
    Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Leeds (40%) · H 40% · D 25% · A 35%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (153.9 h before)
    Evidence
    44 / 120 eligible matches
  39. Brighton v Crystal Palacepending
    Match
    Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Brighton (51%) · H 51% · D 23% · A 26%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (153.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 120 eligible matches
  40. Bournemouth v Sunderlandpending
    Match
    Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 06:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Bournemouth (51%) · H 51% · D 25% · A 25%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (153.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 44 eligible matches
  41. Osasuna v Racing Santanderpending
    Match
    La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Osasuna (57%) · H 57% · D 20% · A 23%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (152.9 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 8 eligible matches · cold start
  42. Udinese v Leccepending
    Match
    Serie A · 18 Oct 2026, 03:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Udinese (51%) · H 51% · D 26% · A 23%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (151.4 h before)
    Evidence
    119 / 120 eligible matches
  43. Valencia v Athletic Clubpending
    Match
    La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Athletic Club (36%) · H 35% · D 28% · A 36%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (135.9 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 120 eligible matches
  44. Estac Troyes v Lenspending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Lens (64%) · H 17% · D 19% · A 64%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (135.6 h before)
    Evidence
    6 / 108 eligible matches · cold start
  45. Lille v Stade Brestois 29pending
    Match
    Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Lille (55%) · H 55% · D 24% · A 22%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (135.6 h before)
    Evidence
    108 / 108 eligible matches
  46. AS Roma v Genoapending
    Match
    Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 11:45
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    AS Roma (61%) · H 61% · D 23% · A 16%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (135.6 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 120 eligible matches
  47. Bayern München v RB Leipzigpending
    Match
    Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Bayern München (73%) · H 73% · D 15% · A 13%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (133.4 h before)
    Evidence
    107 / 107 eligible matches
  48. Real Betis v Barcelonapending
    Match
    La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Barcelona (54%) · H 25% · D 21% · A 54%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (133.4 h before)
    Evidence
    122 / 122 eligible matches
  49. Newcastle v Aston Villapending
    Match
    Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Newcastle (47%) · H 47% · D 23% · A 29%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (133.4 h before)
    Evidence
    119 / 120 eligible matches
  50. Bologna v Interpending
    Match
    Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00
    Predicted (Match result (1X2))
    Inter (54%) · H 23% · D 23% · A 54%
    Verified result
    not settled yet
    Model
    soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (132.9 h before)
    Evidence
    120 / 120 eligible matches

Are the probabilities behaving?

Calibration bands need at least 30 settled predictions; 28 so far. Nothing here is a verdict.

Over time

  1. 2026-W41n 28Brier 0.600log loss 1.002accuracy 54%

A trend needs several weeks with samples above the threshold; one week is not improvement or deterioration.

By competition

  1. Bundesliga9 settled / 18Brier 0.680 · log loss 1.100 · accuracy 56%insufficient
  2. La Liga8 settled / 21Brier 0.501 · log loss 0.879 · accuracy 63%insufficient
  3. Ligue 11 settled / 10Brier 0.196 · log loss 0.448 · accuracy 100%insufficient
  4. Premier League9 settled / 20Brier 0.622 · log loss 1.036 · accuracy 44%insufficient
  5. Serie A1 settled / 13Brier 0.891 · log loss 1.361 · accuracy 0%insufficient
  6. UEFA Champions League0 settled / 36awaiting settled predictionsnone

By market

51 markets in the catalogue (each scored on its own question)
  1. Match result (1X2)28 settled / 118Brier 0.600 · log loss 1.002 · accuracy 54%insufficient
  2. Result home28 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient
  3. Result draw28 settled / 118Brier 0.224 · log loss 0.646 · accuracy 68%insufficient
  4. Result away28 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient
  5. Double chance 1x28 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
  6. Double chance x228 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
  7. Double chance 1228 settled / 118Brier 0.224 · log loss 0.646 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
  8. Both teams to score28 settled / 118Brier 0.255 · log loss 0.704 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
  9. Both teams to score no28 settled / 118Brier 0.255 · log loss 0.704 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
  10. Total goals over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.035 · log loss 0.158 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
  11. Total goals under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.035 · log loss 0.158 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
  12. Total goals over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.120 · log loss 0.413 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
  13. Total goals under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.120 · log loss 0.413 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
  14. Over 2.5 goals28 settled / 118Brier 0.234 · log loss 0.660 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
  15. Total goals under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.234 · log loss 0.660 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
  16. Total goals over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.244 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
  17. Total goals under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.244 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
  18. Total goals over 4.528 settled / 118Brier 0.167 · log loss 0.512 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 36 excluded
  19. Total goals under 4.528 settled / 118Brier 0.167 · log loss 0.512 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 36 excluded
  20. Total goals over 5.528 settled / 118Brier 0.123 · log loss 0.410 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  21. Total goals under 5.528 settled / 118Brier 0.123 · log loss 0.410 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  22. Team total home over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.141 · log loss 0.442 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
  23. Team total home under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.141 · log loss 0.442 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
  24. Team total home over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.230 · log loss 0.650 · accuracy 64%insufficient · 36 excluded
  25. Team total home under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.230 · log loss 0.650 · accuracy 64%insufficient · 36 excluded
  26. Team total home over 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.175 · log loss 0.521 · accuracy 75%insufficient · 36 excluded
  27. Team total home under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.175 · log loss 0.521 · accuracy 75%insufficient · 36 excluded
  28. Team total home over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.091 · log loss 0.301 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
  29. Team total home under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.091 · log loss 0.301 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
  30. Team total away over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.155 · log loss 0.487 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  31. Team total away under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.155 · log loss 0.487 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  32. Team total away over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.246 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
  33. Team total away under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.246 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
  34. Team total away over 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.107 · log loss 0.359 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  35. Team total away under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.107 · log loss 0.359 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  36. Team total away over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.037 · log loss 0.148 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
  37. Team total away under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.037 · log loss 0.148 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
  38. Spread home -2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.106 · log loss 0.333 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  39. Spread away +2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.106 · log loss 0.333 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  40. Spread home -1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.127 · log loss 0.404 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  41. Spread away +1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.127 · log loss 0.404 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
  42. Spread home -0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
  43. Spread away +0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
  44. Spread home +0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
  45. Spread away -0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
  46. Spread home +1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.108 · log loss 0.349 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
  47. Spread away -1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.108 · log loss 0.349 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
  48. Spread home +2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.040 · log loss 0.165 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 37 excluded
  49. Spread away -2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.040 · log loss 0.165 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 37 excluded
  50. Draw no bet home19 settled / 118Brier 0.172 · log loss 0.525 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 45 excluded
  51. Draw no bet away19 settled / 118Brier 0.172 · log loss 0.525 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 45 excluded

Model versus Kalshi

Comparison instant
Kalshi's last two-sided quote observed strictly before the scheduled kick-off; mid of yes bid/ask; 1X2 vectors normalised to sum to 1
1X2 pairs
28 · model log loss 1.002 vs Kalshi 0.965 · Brier 0.600 vs 0.576
Both teams to score
28 pairs · log loss 0.704 vs 0.677
Spread away -1.5
27 pairs · log loss 0.361 vs 0.366
Spread away -2.5
26 pairs · log loss 0.177 vs 0.174
Spread home -1.5
28 pairs · log loss 0.404 vs 0.402
Spread home -2.5
26 pairs · log loss 0.357 vs 0.318
Team total away over 0.5
24 pairs · log loss 0.511 vs 0.492
Reading
Fewer than 30 matched pairs: not evidence of superiority or deterioration either way. Excluded: 127 no two sided quote before kickoff.

Retrospective research

Historical chronological simulations (Phase 4–8 research, 2023–2026 seasons) exist in the research reports under research/ and were recomputed in the October 2026 audit. They are retrospective: their probabilities were not recorded live before those games, and they are never blended into the live figures above.

Every row is the latest genuine pre-kickoff snapshot of its fixture for one model identity; identities are never pooled. Outcomes come from the ledger-proven settlement (corrections as revisions); pending rows carry no score. Sample-size words follow the forward maturity vocabulary; none of them is a verdict. Retrospective historical simulations are not included anywhere in these figures.

Data pipeline1 issue: 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h · sports 25 min ago · Kalshi 27 min ago

Technical diagnostics of the collection and settlement machinery, from its own ledgers. Nothing here is a prediction or a result.

Pipeline health

1 issue: 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h
  • 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h
Sports results last ingested
25 min ago · 1 failed request(s) in 24 h
Forward settlements
78 · latest Racing Santander v Valencia 2–2
Snapshot fixtures
118 · 89 scheduled, not yet played · 1 kicked off, result not yet expected · 28 settled
Saved selections
253 · 69 match not yet played · 12 postponed · 172 settled · last check 7 h ago
Kalshi refresh
last success 27 min ago
  • Post-game result ingestion: ok · 25 min ago (postgame)
  • Forward settlement: ok · 25 min ago (postgame)
  • Saved-set settlement check: ok · 25 min ago (postgame)
Fixtures needing attention or awaiting results (21)
  • Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga · 10 Oct 2026, 05:00 · kicked off, result not yet expected · in a saved set
  • Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga · 16 Oct 2026, 11:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Everton v Chelsea · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 04:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Espanyol v Atletico Madrid · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Fulham v Hull City · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Brentford v Liverpool · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Villarreal v Elche · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 07:15 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Osasuna v Racing Santander · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · 18 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
  • Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set

Schedules: installed, daily 09:30 local (sports ingestion, refresh, settle, report, evidence, Kalshi, odds, saved sets); installed, every 30 minutes (Kalshi refresh + saved-set check; no sports results); post-game step installed, every 30 minutes (results for due fixtures → forward settlement → saved-set check); last run 25 min ago. Health is read from the run ledgers, never from a scheduler's exit code.