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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

RB LeipzigvPSV Eindhoven

RB Leipzig
53%
Draw
21%
PSV Eindhoven
25%

Got%OnIt gives RB Leipzig a 53% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.1 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.4 for PSV Eindhoven.
  • RB Leipzig won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • RB Leipzig are 32nd of 36 after 1 games; PSV Eindhoven are 19th.
  • RB Leipzig have won 0 and lost 1; PSV Eindhoven have won 0 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

RB Leipzig

  • W6–0v Eintracht Frankfurt10 Oct
  • L0–2at Bayer Leverkusen20 Sept
  • W5–0v Hamburger SV13 Sept
  • L1–4at Como10 Sept
  • L1–3at Werder Bremen5 Sept
  • W3–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug

PSV Eindhoven

  • D1–1v Shakhtar Donetsk10 Sept
  • L1–2v Bayern München28 Jan
  • L0–3at Newcastle21 Jan
  • L2–3v Atletico Madrid9 Dec
  • W4–1at Liverpool26 Nov
  • D1–1at Olympiakos Piraeus4 Nov

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
RB Leipzig win53.3%36.6%−16.7 pts
Draw21.5%21.8%+0.3 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%41.7%+16.5 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.10 and 1.40). RB Leipzig 2.10 · PSV Eindhoven 1.40 · total 3.49 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (RB Leipzig–PSV Eindhoven)

  1. 2–19.3%
  2. 1–19.1%
  3. 2–06.7%
  4. 2–26.5%
  5. 3–16.5%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

RB Leipzig

Expected goals
2.10
Scoring vs average
×1.10
Conceding vs average
×1.06

PSV Eindhoven

Expected goals
1.40
Scoring vs average
×1.06
Conceding vs average
×1.10
  • RB Leipzig (home): expected to score ×1.10 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.06 the average.
  • PSV Eindhoven (away): expected to score ×1.06 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.10 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

RB Leipzig
124 matches (123 with xG)
PSV Eindhoven
29 matches (27 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home53.3%under-stated by 5.5 pts on 75 matches (this competition); conservative 47.6%
1x2:draw21.5%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 14.3%
1x2:away25.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 106 matches (this competition); conservative 21.0%
double_chance:1x74.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x246.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1278.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes66.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no33.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.596.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.53.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.586.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.513.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.567.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.532.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.546.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.553.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.527.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.572.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.514.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.585.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.587.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.512.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.561.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.538.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.534.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.565.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.516.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.583.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.575.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.524.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.540.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.559.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.516.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.583.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.594.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.515.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.584.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.532.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.568.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.553.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.546.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.574.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.525.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.589.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.511.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.596.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home67.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away32.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.24 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2613286720029048733 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
RB Leipzig win53.3%53.8% ± 0.2+0.42 pts
Draw21.5%21.0% ± 0.1−0.46 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%25.2% ± 0.1+0.04 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.24 pts (draw_no_bet:away); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

RB Leipzig
24.8% ± 0.1 (exact 24.7%)
PSV Eindhoven
12.4% ± 0.1 (exact 12.3%)

Goal difference (RB Leipzig minus PSV Eindhoven)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.8% ± 0.0
  4. -32.7% ± 0.1
  5. -27.1% ± 0.1
  6. -114.3% ± 0.1
  7. 021.0% ± 0.1
  8. 121.7% ± 0.1
  9. 216.2% ± 0.1
  10. 39.2% ± 0.1
  11. 44.3% ± 0.1
  12. 51.6% ± 0.0
  13. >50.7% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
RB Leipzig 2–1 PSV Eindhoven9.3% ± 0.19.3%
RB Leipzig 1–1 PSV Eindhoven8.9% ± 0.19.1%
RB Leipzig 2–0 PSV Eindhoven6.7% ± 0.16.7%
RB Leipzig 3–1 PSV Eindhoven6.6% ± 0.16.5%
RB Leipzig 2–2 PSV Eindhoven6.5% ± 0.16.5%

Expected goals (simulated)

RB Leipzig
mean 2.10 · variance 2.10 · ± 0.005
PSV Eindhoven
mean 1.39 · variance 1.39 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move psv eindhoven win by −0.9 pts (to 24.3%). Expected goals move −0.13 for RB Leipzig and −0.14 for PSV Eindhoven.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
RB Leipzig win53.3%53.8%+0.5 pts
Draw21.5%21.9%+0.4 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%24.3%−0.9 pts
Expected goals2.10 – 1.401.96 – 1.26−0.13 / −0.14

Data labels: CONFIRMED 69 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

RB Leipzig

Attack ×0.91 band 0.86–0.95 ESTIMATED · 18.0% of goals share out

  • C. Baumgartner M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 15.0% · effect −15.0% REPORTED
  • L. Zingerle G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Ouedraogo M Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
  • Marc Guiu F Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Kone D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: R. Reitz, B. GrudaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Vandevoordt)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

PSV Eindhoven

Attack ×0.90 band 0.85–0.95 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 20.1% of goals share out

  • A. Plea Missing Fixture (Surgery) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Lammers Missing Fixture (Lacking Match Fitness) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Schouten D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • R. Pepi F Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 20.1% · effect −20.1% REPORTED
  • K. Sildillia D Missing Fixture (Surgery) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Nagalo D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • P. Wanner M Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Ouaissa Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Kovar)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move psv eindhoven win by +0.6 pts (to 25.8%). Expected goals move −0.04 for RB Leipzig and −0.01 for PSV Eindhoven.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
RB Leipzig win53.3%52.9%−0.4 pts
Draw21.5%21.3%−0.2 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%25.8%+0.6 pts
Expected goals2.10 – 1.402.05 – 1.38−0.04 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 69 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 5 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

RB Leipzig rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.62

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution 0.042 (-0.077 to 0.192) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven rate ×0.99 band 0.66–1.42

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution -0.038 (-0.127 to 0.040) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move draw by +0.7 pts (to 22.2%). Expected goals move −0.17 for RB Leipzig and −0.15 for PSV Eindhoven.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
RB Leipzig win53.3%53.2%−0.1 pts
Draw21.5%22.2%+0.7 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%24.6%−0.6 pts
Expected goals2.10 – 1.401.92 – 1.25−0.17 / −0.15

Data labels: CONFIRMED 69 · REPORTED 13 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

RB Leipzig

Attack ×0.91 band 0.86–0.95 ESTIMATED · 18.0% of goals share out

  • C. Baumgartner M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 15.0% · effect −15.0% REPORTED
  • L. Zingerle G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Ouedraogo M Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
  • Marc Guiu F Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Kone D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: R. Reitz, B. GrudaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Vandevoordt)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

PSV Eindhoven

Attack ×0.90 band 0.85–0.95 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 20.1% of goals share out

  • A. Plea Missing Fixture (Surgery) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Lammers Missing Fixture (Lacking Match Fitness) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Schouten D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • R. Pepi F Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 20.1% · effect −20.1% REPORTED
  • K. Sildillia D Missing Fixture (Surgery) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Nagalo D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • P. Wanner M Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Ouaissa Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Kovar)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 5 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

RB Leipzig rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.62

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution 0.042 (-0.077 to 0.192) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven rate ×0.99 band 0.66–1.42

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution -0.038 (-0.127 to 0.040) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
RB Leipzig win53.3%41.7%−11.6 pts
Draw21.5%22.3%+0.8 pts
PSV Eindhoven win25.2%36.0%+10.8 pts
Expected goals—1.81 – 1.67−0.29 / +0.27

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 184 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)A. Nusa 22% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

RB Leipzig

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Nusa M22.1% ± 0.12.7% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00292%
R. Baku D13.6% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00181%
W. Orban D13.2% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.001100%
Romulo Cardoso F11.6% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00147%
C. Nkunku F11.0% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00161%
E. Banzuzi M7.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00177%
B. Gruda F7.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00154%
D. Raum D4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00192%

PSV Eindhoven

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 80% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Til M21.8% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00296%
S. Dest D16.9% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00174%
I. Saibari F16.0% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00162%
D. Man M13.9% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00161%
C. Driouech F11.3% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00112%
I. Perisic M10.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00188%

Run 952 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 447, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (RB Leipzig)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (PSV Eindhoven)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationRB Leipzig 3.1 d rest (short) · PSV Eindhoven 5 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

RB Leipzig

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A Bayern München +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptBLA Bayer LeverkusenL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLH Eintracht FrankfurtW 6–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctBLA Bayern München+3.9 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Real Madrid+8 d
  • Sat 24 OctBLH SV Elversberg+10.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 42 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.9 CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Vandevoordt · regularG901800' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before
C. NkunkuM6464—
E. BanzuziM7373—
D. Raum · regularD901800' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before
C. Lukeba · regularD9090—
W. Orbán · regularD9027090' Hungary, 11 d before; 90' Hungary, 8 d before
RômuloF9090—
A. Nusa · regularM6415315' Norway, 12 d before; 74' Norway, 9 d before
A. MaksimovićM9090—
N. El AynaouiM5858—
R. Baku · regularD58580' Germany, 12 d before; 0' Germany, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 662 minutes — M. Vandevoordt (0' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before); Ø. Nyland (90' Norway, 12 d before; 0' Norway, 9 d before); D. Raum (0' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); W. Orbán (90' Hungary, 11 d before; 90' Hungary, 8 d before); N. Seiwald (46' Austria, 12 d before; 77' Austria, 9.1 d before); A. Nusa (15' Norway, 12 d before; 74' Norway, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A FC Porto +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA FC Porto+7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Veerman (M) — reason unknown; J. Schouten (D) — reason unknown; I. Saibari (F) — reason unknown; Mauro Junior (D) — reason unknown; A. Salah-Eddine (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
F. KostićD010890' Serbia, 12 d before; 18' Serbia, 9 d before
L. GeertruidaD00—
A. ObispoD09090' Curaçao, 11.9 d before; 0' Curaçao, 8.9 d before
K. SanoM00—
R. PepiF00—
M. Kovář · regularG000' Czechia, 10 d before; 0' Czechia, 7 d before
I. Perišić · regularF018090' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before
P. WannerM00—
S. DestD00—
G. Til · regularM04646' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before
R. van BommelF07846' Netherlands, 12 d before; 32' Netherlands, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 776 minutes — F. Kostić (90' Serbia, 12 d before; 18' Serbia, 9 d before); D. Man (67' Romania, 11 d before; 90' Romania, 8 d before); A. Obispo (90' Curaçao, 11.9 d before; 0' Curaçao, 8.9 d before); E. Bajraktarevic (90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11 d before; 27' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 8 d before); I. Perišić (90' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before); G. Til (46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before); R. van Bommel (46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 32' Netherlands, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 2 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

RB Leipzig

  • A. Kone · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • A. Ouedraogo · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Missing Fixture
  • C. Baumgartner · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • L. Zingerle · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Guiu · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture

PSV Eindhoven

  • A. Nagalo · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • A. Plea · injury / absence: Surgery · Missing Fixture
  • J. Schouten · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • K. Sildillia · injury / absence: Surgery · Missing Fixture
  • P. Wanner · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Missing Fixture
  • R. Pepi · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • S. Lammers · injury / absence: Lacking Match Fitness · Missing Fixture
  • S. Ouaissa · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
RB Leipzig53%53%55%
Draw21%22%21%
PSV Eindhoven25%26%25%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 26 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

RB Leipzig

  • RB Leipzig: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • L1–4at Como10 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Sturm Graz29 Jan · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sporting CP22 Jan · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Aston Villa10 Dec · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Inter26 Nov · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Celtic5 Nov · in model evidence

PSV Eindhoven

  • PSV Eindhoven: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1v Shakhtar Donetsk10 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Bayern München28 Jan · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Newcastle21 Jan · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Atletico Madrid9 Dec · in model evidence
  • W4–1at Liverpool26 Nov · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Olympiakos Piraeus4 Nov · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals3%
1 goal10%
2 goals19%
3 goals22%
4 goals19%
5 goals13%
6 or more14%
Over 1.587%
Over 2.568%
Over 3.546%
Both teams score66%

RB Leipzig

Expected goals2.10
Scores at least once88%
Scores 2 or more62%
Clean sheet25%

PSV Eindhoven

Expected goals1.40
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more41%
Clean sheet12%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability13 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

13 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 2 h ago.

RB Leipzig

  • A. KoneOutOff the roster
  • A. OuedraogoOutShoulder Injury
  • C. BaumgartnerOutThigh Injury
  • L. ZingerleOutOff the roster
  • M. GuiuOutHamstring Injury

PSV Eindhoven

  • A. NagaloOutOff the roster
  • A. PleaOutSurgery
  • J. SchoutenOutKnee Injury
  • K. SildilliaOutSurgery
  • P. WannerOutFoot Injury
  • R. PepiOutInjury
  • S. LammersOutLacking Match Fitness
  • S. OuaissaOutMuscle Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season32nd v 19th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

RB Leipzig

32nd of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 4

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

PSV Eindhoven

19th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
RB Leipzig to win53.3%53.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 55¢
Draw21.5%21.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
PSV Eindhoven to win25.2%25.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw limited evidence74.8%74.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
PSV Eindhoven or draw limited evidence46.7%46.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 46¢
Not a draw limited evidence78.5%79.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 80¢
Draw no bet
RB Leipzig to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence67.9%68.1% ± 0.2no
PSV Eindhoven to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence32.1%31.9% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence96.7%96.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 99¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence3.3%3.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 3¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence86.6%86.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 91¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence13.4%13.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 11¢
Over 2.5 goals in total67.8%67.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 75¢
Under 2.5 goals in total32.2%32.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence46.2%46.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence53.8%53.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence27.3%27.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence72.7%72.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 67¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence14.2%14.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence85.8%85.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence66.3%65.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 70¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence33.7%34.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 31¢
Team goals
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals limited evidence87.7%87.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 92¢
RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals limited evidence12.3%12.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 11¢
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals limited evidence61.9%61.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 69¢
RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals limited evidence38.1%38.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 34¢
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals limited evidence34.9%35.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 42¢
RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals limited evidence65.1%64.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 61¢
RB Leipzig over 3.5 goals limited evidence16.1%16.1% ± 0.1no
RB Leipzig under 3.5 goals limited evidence83.9%83.9% ± 0.1no
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals limited evidence75.3%75.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 79¢
PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 goals limited evidence24.7%24.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 23¢
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals limited evidence40.7%40.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 47¢
PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 goals limited evidence59.3%59.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 57¢
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals limited evidence16.6%16.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 goals limited evidence83.4%83.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
PSV Eindhoven over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.3%5.3% ± 0.1no
PSV Eindhoven under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.7%94.7% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
RB Leipzig to win by 3 or more limited evidence15.9%15.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
RB Leipzig to win by 2 or more limited evidence32.0%32.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
RB Leipzig to win by 1 or more limited evidence53.3%53.8% ± 0.2no
RB Leipzig not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence74.8%74.8% ± 0.1no
RB Leipzig not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence89.0%89.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
RB Leipzig not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.1%96.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
PSV Eindhoven to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.9%3.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 4¢
PSV Eindhoven to win by 2 or more limited evidence11.0%10.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
PSV Eindhoven to win by 1 or more limited evidence25.2%25.2% ± 0.1no
PSV Eindhoven not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence46.7%46.2% ± 0.2no
PSV Eindhoven not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence68.0%67.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 67¢
PSV Eindhoven not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence84.1%84.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Clean sheet
RB Leipzig clean sheet grid24.7%24.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 23¢
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet grid12.3%12.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 11¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—21.0% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig by exactly 1—21.7% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig by exactly 2—16.2% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig by exactly 3—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig by exactly 4—4.3% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig by exactly 5—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
PSV Eindhoven by exactly 1—14.3% ± 0.1not listed
PSV Eindhoven by exactly 2—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
PSV Eindhoven by exactly 3—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
PSV Eindhoven by exactly 4—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
PSV Eindhoven by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
RB Leipzig by 6 or more—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
PSV Eindhoven by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
RB Leipzig 2–1 PSV Eindhoven—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig 1–1 PSV Eindhoven—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig 2–0 PSV Eindhoven—6.7% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig 3–1 PSV Eindhoven—6.6% ± 0.1not listed
RB Leipzig 2–2 PSV Eindhoven—6.5% ± 0.1not listed

RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes)
25%
25%
YES on PSV Eindhoven to WinPSV Eindhoven wins in 90 minutes
25%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 31,268 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)
53%
55%
YES on RB Leipzig to WinRB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
53%55¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 5,499 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
21%
21%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
21%21¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 30,420 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawRB Leipzig or PSV Eindhoven wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
79%80¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,569 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven to WinRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
75%76¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,506 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to WinPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
47%46¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 20,895 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
97%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
97%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,608 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
3%3¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,620 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
87%
90%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
87%91¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,062 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
13%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,276 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
68%
74%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
68%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,742 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
32%27¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,420 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
46%
53%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
46%53¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,024 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
54%48¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,581 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
27%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,481 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
73%67¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
14%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,987 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
86%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,871 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
66%
70%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
66%70¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
34%31¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,642 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Winning margin
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins by 2 goals or more
11%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,273 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or PSV Eindhoven wins by 1 goal · PSV Eindhoven not by 2+ goals
89%90¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,244 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins by 3 goals or more
4%4¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,175 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or PSV Eindhoven wins by 2 goals or fewer · PSV Eindhoven not by 3+ goals
96%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,614 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or more
32%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,515 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 1 goal · RB Leipzig not by 2+ goals
68%67¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 13,347 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 3 goals or more
16%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,824 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig not by 3+ goals
84%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,883 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Team goals
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
75%
78%
Limited evidence
YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 0.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 1 goal or more
75%79¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 0.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven does not score · PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 goals
25%23¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
45%
Limited evidence
YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 2 goals or more
41%47¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,487 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 1 goal or fewer · PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 goals
59%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 137 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 3 goals or more
17%21¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 513 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 2 goals or fewer · PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 goals
83%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 54 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
88%
91%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig Over 0.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 1 goal or more
88%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,576 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig Over 0.5 GoalsRB Leipzig does not score · RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals
12%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 18 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
62%
68%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig Over 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 2 goals or more
62%69¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig Over 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 1 goal or fewer · RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals
38%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on RB Leipzig Over 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 3 goals or more
35%42¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on RB Leipzig Over 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals
65%61¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 53.3% · draw 21.5% · away 25.2%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.40
RB Leipzig eligible matches
124 (123 with xG)
PSV Eindhoven eligible matches
29 (27 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

RB LeipzigOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctEintracht Frankfurthome6–03.44–1.38W
20 SeptBayer Leverkusenaway0–20.97–2.27L
13 SeptHamburger SVhome5–02.43–1.10W
10 SeptComoaway1–4—L
5 SeptWerder Bremenaway1–31.50–0.95L
29 AugBorussia Mönchengladbachhome3–03.96–1.09W
PSV EindhovenOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 SeptShakhtar Donetskhome1–1—D
28 JanBayern Münchenhome1–20.69–1.82L
21 JanNewcastleaway0–30.34–2.40L
9 DecAtletico Madridhome2–32.67–2.23L
26 NovLiverpoolaway4–12.17–2.50W
4 NovOlympiakos Piraeusaway1–10.35–0.92D

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13RBLPSV-BTTS
66.3%69.5%—0.69 / 0.700.310 / 9,642Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV
25.2%24.5%+0.7 pts0.24 / 0.250.7631,268 / 10,506Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL
53.3%54.5%−1.2 pts0.54 / 0.550.465,499 / 20,895Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-TIE
21.5%20.5%+1.0 pts0.20 / 0.210.8030,420 / 2,569Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV2
11.0%10.5%—0.10 / 0.110.901,273 / 1,244Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV3
3.9%3.5%—0.03 / 0.040.971,175 / 11,614Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL2
32.0%33.5%—0.33 / 0.340.671,515 / 13,347Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL3
15.9%18.0%—0.17 / 0.190.833,824 / 4,883Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV1
75.3%78.0%—0.77 / 0.790.230 / 4Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV2
40.7%45.0%—0.43 / 0.470.571,487 / 137Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV3
16.6%19.5%—0.18 / 0.210.82513 / 54Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL1
87.7%90.5%—0.89 / 0.920.111,576 / 18Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL2
61.9%67.5%—0.66 / 0.690.34750 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL3
34.9%40.5%—0.39 / 0.420.61750 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-1
96.7%98.0%—0.97 / 0.990.0322,608 / 6,620Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-2
86.6%90.0%—0.89 / 0.910.1112,062 / 1,276Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-3
67.8%74.0%—0.73 / 0.750.2710,742 / 3,420Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-4
46.2%52.5%—0.52 / 0.530.482,024 / 11,581Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-5
27.3%33.5%—0.33 / 0.340.673,481 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-6
14.2%18.0%—0.17 / 0.190.831,987 / 2,871Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:07:35.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home52.6%50.9% – 54.1%55.4%1.801053.3%+0.7 pts
1x2:draw22.1%21.0% – 23.4%23.0%4.341021.5%−0.6 pts
1x2:away25.6%24.5% – 26.2%26.6%3.771025.2%−0.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:53 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.569.7%68.4% – 70.3%74.6%1.347——
total_goals:under:2.530.3%29.7% – 31.6%32.3%3.107——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:53 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.72 · draw 4.30 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.80 · draw 4.50 · home 1.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.78 · draw 4.56 · home 1.8111/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 3.46 · draw 3.80 · home 1.7411/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 4.00 · home 1.8011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 3.75 · draw 4.33 · home 1.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.85 · draw 4.40 · home 1.8211/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.82 · draw 4.41 · home 1.9011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.65 · draw 4.35 · home 1.8211/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.80 · draw 4.20 · home 1.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.32 · under 2.5 3.0411/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.32 · under 2.5 3.0411/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 3.1011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:07:35.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:56 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · RB Leipzigok11/10/2026, 01:39:29 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · PSV Eindhovenok11/10/2026, 01:39:29 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home53.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw21.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away25.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x74.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x246.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1278.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes66.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no33.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.586.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.513.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.567.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.532.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.546.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.553.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.527.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.572.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.514.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.585.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.587.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.512.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.561.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.538.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.534.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.565.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.516.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.583.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.575.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.524.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.540.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.559.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.516.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.583.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.515.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.584.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.532.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.568.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.553.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.546.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.574.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.525.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.589.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.511.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home67.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away32.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 447 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:07:35