Got%OnIt
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Serie A·Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT

MonzavCagliari

Monza
34%
Draw
27%
Cagliari
39%

Got%OnIt gives Cagliari a 39% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Monza has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.2 goals for Monza and 1.3 for Cagliari.
  • Monza won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 a game.
  • Cagliari won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Monza has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
  • We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Monza are 16th of 20 after 6 games; Cagliari are 4th.
  • Monza have won 1 and lost 4; Cagliari have won 4 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Monza

  • L1–3at Lazio11 Oct
  • W2–1v Sassuolo18 Sept
  • L2–3at Lecce13 Sept
  • D1–1at Parma6 Sept
  • L2–3v Udinese29 Aug
  • L1–4at Inter22 Aug

Cagliari

  • D1–1v Juventus11 Oct
  • W1–0at Udinese19 Sept
  • W2–1at Atalanta12 Sept
  • W1–0v Lecce7 Sept
  • L0–1v Inter30 Aug
  • W1–0at Parma22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 623, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-19T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Cagliari)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Monza)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationMonza 8 d rest · Cagliari 8 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Monza

8.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Torino +4.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 11 OctSAA LazioL 1–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctSAA Torino+4.1 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAH Napoli+9.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctSAA Bologna+11.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 8 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Monza: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Ricardo Mangas · regularM070—
E. AkinsanmiroM090—
M. FolorunshoM045—
L. Lucchesi · regularD090—
E. Kouadio · regularD090—
N. TörnqvistG0900' Sweden, 13.9 d before
Gustavo VarelaF090—
E. ZeballosM045—
C. NgongeM036—
S. Birindelli · regularM090—
A. Carboni · regularD045—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Cagliari

7.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Bologna +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 11 OctSAH JuventusD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAH Bologna+4.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAA AS Roma+8.1 d
  • Sun 1 NovSAA Lazio+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 25 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Cagliari: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Zé Pedro · regularD090—
E. Caprile · regularG090—
Y. MinaD090—
A. Romano · regularM018090' Italy, 13.9 d before
P. Mendy · regularF069—
D. MaldiniM015990' Italy, 13.9 d before
Y. MassolinM060—
H. Winks · regularM090—
M. Adopo · regularM090—
A. Obert · regularD016682' Slovakia, 12.9 d before
J. Rodríguez · regularD045—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 262 minutes — A. Romano (90' Italy, 13.9 d before); D. Maldini (90' Italy, 13.9 d before); A. Obert (82' Slovakia, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Monza34%—41%
Draw27%—30%
Cagliari39%—28%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Cagliari a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (39% vs 28%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Monza

  • Monza: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 2.5 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • L1–3at Lazio11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sassuolo18 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Lecce13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Parma6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Udinese29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Inter22 Aug · in model evidence

Cagliari

  • Cagliari: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 50%, over 2.5 in 30%.
  • D1–1v Juventus11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Udinese19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Atalanta12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Lecce7 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Inter30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Parma22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals8%
1 goal20%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more5%
Over 1.572%
Over 2.547%
Over 3.525%
Both teams score52%

Monza

Expected goals1.22
Scores at least once71%
Scores 2 or more35%
Clean sheet27%

Cagliari

Expected goals1.32
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet29%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynot available

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season16th v 4th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Monza

16th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 15

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L3 (scored 5, conceded 11)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games LWLDL (most recent last)

Cagliari

4th of 20 · 12 pts · W4 D0 L1 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 2

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 1) · Away W3 D0 L0 (scored 4, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WWWLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets3 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Cagliari to win (90 minutes)
39%
28%
YES on Cagliari to WinCagliari wins in 90 minutes
39%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,394 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Monza to win (90 minutes)
34%
41%
YES on Monza to WinMonza wins in 90 minutes
34%42¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,126 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
27%
30%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,000 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawMonza or Cagliari wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 409 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Cagliari to WinMonza wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
61%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,697 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Monza to WinCagliari wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
66%61¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 765 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 34.3% · draw 26.7% · away 39.0%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.32
Monza eligible matches
82 (81 with xG)
Cagliari eligible matches
120 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
  • xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 11% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

MonzaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctLazioaway1–31.91–1.59L
18 SeptSassuolohome2–11.51–1.47W
13 SeptLecceaway2–32.79–1.08L
6 SeptParmaaway1–11.72–0.73D
29 AugUdinesehome2–31.70–0.98L
22 AugInteraway1–4—L
CagliariOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctJuventushome1–10.54–1.94D
19 SeptUdineseaway1–01.12–2.13W
12 SeptAtalantaaway2–11.32–1.74W
7 SeptLeccehome1–01.61–0.50W
30 AugInterhome0–1—L
22 AugParmaaway1–00.94–0.75W

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Cagliari to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-CAG
39.0%28.5%+10.5 pts0.27 / 0.300.732,394 / 1,697Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Monza to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-MON
34.3%40.5%−6.2 pts0.39 / 0.420.613,126 / 765Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-TIE
26.7%30.0%−3.3 pts0.29 / 0.310.714,000 / 409Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:07:58.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
34.3%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
26.7%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
39.0%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
46.8%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
53.2%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:07:58.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesnot_observed—
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Monzaok11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Cagliariok11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home34.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw26.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away39.0%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x61.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x265.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1273.3%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes51.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no48.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.57.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.572.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.527.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.546.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.553.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.525.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.574.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.511.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.588.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.570.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.529.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.534.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.565.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.512.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.587.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.53.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.596.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.573.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.526.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.538.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.561.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.514.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.585.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.514.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.585.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.534.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.565.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.561.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.539.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.582.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.517.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home46.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away53.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 623 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:07:58