Bundesliga·Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT

Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 Hoffenheim

Borussia Mönchengladbach

40%

Draw

23%

1899 Hoffenheim

37%

Got%OnIt gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.6 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 a game.
1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th of 18 after 4 games; 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0 and lost 4; 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 and lost 4.

Recent matches the model used

Borussia Mönchengladbach

L1–2at 1. FC Köln11 Oct
L3–4v FSV Mainz 0519 Sept
L0–5at SC Freiburg12 Sept
L3–4v SV Elversberg5 Sept
L0–3at RB Leipzig29 Aug
W4–0v 1899 Hoffenheim16 May

1899 Hoffenheim

L2–3v Hamburger SV10 Oct
L1–3at SC Paderborn 0720 Sept
W2–1v VfB Stuttgart12 Sept
L2–3v Borussia Dortmund5 Sept
L2–3at 1. FC Köln29 Aug
L0–4at Borussia Mönchengladbach16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 611, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Borussia Mönchengladbach)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (1899 Hoffenheim)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:25 PDT963 finished Bundesliga matches (963 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationBorussia Mönchengladbach 2 absent regulars · 1899 Hoffenheim 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

7.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A VfB Stuttgart +5.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptBLH FSV Mainz 05L 3–4counted as workload
Sun 11 OctBLA 1. FC KölnL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Fri 23 OctBLA VfB Stuttgart+5.1 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH Karlsruher SC+9.1 d
Sat 31 OctBLH SC Paderborn 07+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Stoger (M) — reason unknown; F. Honorat (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Borussia Mönchengladbach: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
L. Ullrich	M	90	—
H. Bolin · regular	M	105	15' Sweden, 12.9 d before
R. Hack	M	64	—
P. Sander · regular	M	90	—
J. Leszczyński	D	80	—
I. Lidberg	F	64	—
M. Nicolas · regular	G	90	—
D. Hashioka	D	80	—
K. Diks · regular	D	90	—
J. Scally · regular	M	90	—
F. Neuhaus	M	68	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 15 minutes — H. Bolin (15' Sweden, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

1899 Hoffenheim

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League H Lyon +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.9 d before (H Beşiktaş) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLA SC Paderborn 07L 1–3counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH Hamburger SVL 2–3counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUELH BeşiktaşNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUELH Lyon+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctBLH Bayer Leverkusen+7 d
Tue 27 OctDFBA Holstein Kiel+9.1 d
Sat 31 OctBLA Werder Bremen+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 39 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Hajdari (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

1899 Hoffenheim: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
B. Conté	M	94	7' Germany, 13.9 d before
L. Avdullahu · regular	M	180	90' Kosovo, 14 d before
K. Machida	D	74	—
V. Coufal · regular	D	174	84' Czechia, 11.9 d before
O. Baumann · regular	G	90	—
T. Lemperle · regular	F	63	—
A. Daghim	M	74	0' Denmark, 13.9 d before
F. Asllani	M	86	23' Kosovo, 14 d before
W. Burger · regular	M	90	—
Bernardo	D	90	—
O. Kabak · regular	D	180	90' Türkiye, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 478 minutes — B. Conté (7' Germany, 13.9 d before); L. Avdullahu (90' Kosovo, 14 d before); V. Coufal (84' Czechia, 11.9 d before); F. Asllani (23' Kosovo, 14 d before); O. Kabak (90' Türkiye, 12.9 d before); A. Prass (62' Austria, 14 d before); R. Hranáč (90' Czechia, 11.9 d before); A. Hložek (32' Czechia, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Borussia Mönchengladbach	40%	29%	29%
Draw	23%	23%	23%
1899 Hoffenheim	37%	48%	50%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives 1899 Hoffenheim a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (37% vs 50%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.4 and conceded 2.2 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.

L1–2at 1. FC Köln11 Oct · in model evidence
L3–4v FSV Mainz 0519 Sept · in model evidence
L0–5at SC Freiburg12 Sept · in model evidence
L3–4v SV Elversberg5 Sept · in model evidence
L0–3at RB Leipzig29 Aug · in model evidence
W4–0v 1899 Hoffenheim16 May · in model evidence

1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 2.2 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 90%.

L2–3v Hamburger SV10 Oct · in model evidence
L1–3at SC Paderborn 0720 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1v VfB Stuttgart12 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3v Borussia Dortmund5 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at 1. FC Köln29 Aug · in model evidence
L0–4at Borussia Mönchengladbach16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	12%
2 goals	20%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	12%
6 or more	12%
Over 1.5	84%
Over 2.5	65%
Over 3.5	43%
Both teams score	66%

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Expected goals	1.70
Scores at least once	82%
Scores 2 or more	51%
Clean sheet	20%

1899 Hoffenheim

Expected goals	1.63
Scores at least once	80%
Scores 2 or more	48%
Clean sheet	18%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season18th v 17th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

18th of 18 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L4 from 4 games · scored 6, conceded 16

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 8) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 4 games

Last five league games LLLL (most recent last)

1899 Hoffenheim

17th of 18 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L4 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 13

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 7) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games LLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes)

40%

29%

YES on Borussia Mönchengladbach to WinBorussia Mönchengladbach wins in 90 minutes

40%30¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,567 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,334 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes)

37%

50%

YES on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win1899 Hoffenheim wins in 90 minutes

37%51¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,821 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawBorussia Mönchengladbach or 1899 Hoffenheim wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%79¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 448 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on 1899 Hoffenheim to WinBorussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

63%51¢

Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

60%72¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 348 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 520 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

84%

88%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

84%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

16%14¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 380 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

65%

70%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

65%71¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

35%32¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 637 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

43%

49%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

43%50¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 374 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

57%53¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 598 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

29%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

24%30¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

76%72¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,004 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

16%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

12%17¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,125 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

88%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 564 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

66%

69%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

66%69¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 374 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

34%32¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

Winning margin

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

21%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2 goals or more

21%15¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 1 goal · Borussia Mönchengladbach not by 2+ goals

79%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,042 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Mönchengladbach wins by 3 goals or more

9%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 376 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Borussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2 goals or fewer · Borussia Mönchengladbach not by 3+ goals

91%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 375 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

18%

28%

Limited evidence

YES on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2 goals or more

18%30¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,125 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 1 goal · 1899 Hoffenheim not by 2+ goals

82%73¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,007 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

14%

Limited evidence

YES on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1899 Hoffenheim wins by 3 goals or more

7%16¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,124 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on 1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2 goals or fewer · 1899 Hoffenheim not by 3+ goals

93%87¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 759 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 40.0% · draw 22.9% · away 37.1%
Expected goals: 1.70 – 1.63
Borussia Mönchengladbach eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
1899 Hoffenheim eligible matches: 107 (107 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 963 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:306, 2026:45
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Bundesliga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 11 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
the model's home probability is 11% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's away probability is 13% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Borussia Mönchengladbach	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	1. FC Köln	away	1–2	1.12–1.46	L
19 Sept	FSV Mainz 05	home	3–4	3.24–2.82	L
12 Sept	SC Freiburg	away	0–5	0.19–2.60	L
5 Sept	SV Elversberg	home	3–4	2.36–2.31	L
29 Aug	RB Leipzig	away	0–3	1.09–3.96	L
16 May	1899 Hoffenheim	home	4–0	1.20–1.62	W

1899 Hoffenheim	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Hamburger SV	home	2–3	1.09–1.15	L
20 Sept	SC Paderborn 07	away	1–3	1.50–0.68	L
12 Sept	VfB Stuttgart	home	2–1	2.76–2.16	W
5 Sept	Borussia Dortmund	home	2–3	1.17–2.02	L
29 Aug	1. FC Köln	away	2–3	1.88–1.95	L
16 May	Borussia Mönchengladbach	away	0–4	1.62–1.20	L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18BMGTSG-BTTS	65.7%	68.5%	−2.8 pts	0.68 / 0.69	0.32	374 / 0	Comparable seen 31 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG	40.0%	29.0%	+11.0 pts	0.28 / 0.30	0.72	1,567 / 348	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG	37.1%	50.0%	−12.9 pts	0.49 / 0.51	0.51	4,821 / 0	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TIE	22.9%	22.5%	+0.4 pts	0.21 / 0.24	0.79	3,334 / 448	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG2	20.5%	13.5%	+7.0 pts	0.12 / 0.15	0.88	750 / 7,042	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG3	8.6%	5.5%	+3.1 pts	0.04 / 0.07	0.96	376 / 375	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG2	18.5%	28.5%	−10.0 pts	0.27 / 0.30	0.73	1,125 / 5,007	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG3	7.5%	14.5%	−7.0 pts	0.13 / 0.16	0.87	1,124 / 759	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-1	96.4%	96.0%	+0.4 pts	0.94 / 0.98	0.06	367 / 520	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-2	84.5%	87.5%	−3.0 pts	0.86 / 0.89	0.14	367 / 380	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-3	64.6%	69.5%	−4.9 pts	0.68 / 0.71	0.32	367 / 637	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-4	42.6%	48.5%	−5.9 pts	0.47 / 0.50	0.53	374 / 598	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-5	24.2%	29.0%	−4.8 pts	0.28 / 0.30	0.72	750 / 1,004	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-6	12.0%	15.5%	−3.5 pts	0.14 / 0.17	0.86	1,125 / 564	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:59.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	28.8%	27.5% – 30.5%	30.6%	3.27	10	40.0%	+11.2 pts
1x2:draw	23.3%	22.6% – 24.8%	24.5%	4.08	10	22.9%	−0.4 pts
1x2:away	47.9%	44.8% – 49.4%	51.2%	1.96	10	37.1%	−10.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:31.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	68.1%	66.5% – 69.3%	72.5%	1.38	7	64.6%	−3.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	31.9%	30.7% – 33.5%	34.0%	2.94	7	35.4%	+3.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:32.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.94 · draw 4.15 · home 3.48	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.91 · draw 4.10 · home 3.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.96 · draw 4.21 · home 3.28	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 1.98 · draw 3.58 · home 2.91	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.95 · draw 3.90 · home 3.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.95 · draw 4.00 · home 3.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.00 · draw 4.10 · home 3.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.99 · draw 4.26 · home 3.58	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 2.02 · draw 4.05 · home 3.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.91 · draw 3.90 · home 3.13	11/10/2026, 09:31:31	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.88	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.94	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 3.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.88	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 2.74	11/10/2026, 09:31:32	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:59.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:27 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Borussia Mönchengladbach	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · 1899 Hoffenheim	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:21 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	40.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	22.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	37.1%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	62.9%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	60.0%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	77.1%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	65.7%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	34.3%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	96.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	3.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	84.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	15.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	64.6%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	35.4%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	42.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	57.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	24.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	75.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	12.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	88.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	81.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	18.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	50.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	49.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	24.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	75.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	9.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	90.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	80.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	19.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	48.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	51.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	22.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	77.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	8.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	91.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	8.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	91.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	20.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	79.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	40.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	60.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	62.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	37.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	81.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	18.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	92.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	7.5%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	51.9%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	48.1%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 611 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:59