Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT

TottenhamvCoventry

Tottenham
55%
Draw
25%
Coventry
20%

Got%OnIt gives Tottenham a 55% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 5 Premier League matches for Coventry, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Tottenham and 0.9 for Coventry.
  • Tottenham won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Coventry won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.2 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 5 Premier League matches for Coventry, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Tottenham are 18th of 20 after 6 games; Coventry are 19th.
  • Tottenham have won 0 and lost 3; Coventry have won 1 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Tottenham

  • D1–1at Manchester United10 Oct
  • L2–3v Aston Villa19 Sept
  • D0–0v Everton12 Sept
  • D0–0at Nottingham Forest5 Sept
  • L0–2v Newcastle29 Aug
  • L0–3at Brentford22 Aug

Coventry

  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Tottenham win55.1%61.8%+6.7 pts
Draw24.9%23.7%−1.2 pts
Coventry win20.0%14.5%−5.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.67 and 0.91). Tottenham 1.67 · Coventry 0.91 · total 2.58 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Tottenham–Coventry)

  1. 1–012.4%
  2. 1–111.8%
  3. 2–010.6%
  4. 2–19.6%
  5. 0–07.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Tottenham

Expected goals
1.67
Scoring vs average
×1.08
Conceding vs average
×0.72

Coventry

Expected goals
0.91
Scoring vs average
×0.72
Conceding vs average
×1.08
  • Tottenham (home): expected to score ×1.08 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.72 the average.
  • Coventry (away): expected to score ×0.72 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.08 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Tottenham
144 matches (144 with xG)
Coventry
5 matches (5 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home55.1%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 52.1%
1x2:draw24.9%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.4%
1x2:away20.0%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 18.5%
double_chance:1x80.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x244.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes48.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no51.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.592.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.7%
total_goals:under:0.57.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.573.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.5%
total_goals:under:1.526.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.547.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.9%
total_goals:under:2.552.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.525.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 25.3%
total_goals:under:3.574.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.511.9%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 10.3%
total_goals:under:4.588.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.54.7%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 2.6%
total_goals:under:5.595.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.581.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.7%
team_total:home:under:0.518.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.549.7%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.1%
team_total:home:under:1.550.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.523.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.9%
team_total:home:under:2.576.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.58.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.9%
team_total:home:under:3.591.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.559.6%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.0%
team_total:away:under:0.540.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.523.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.4%
team_total:away:under:1.577.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.56.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.1%
team_total:away:under:2.593.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.1%
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.513.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.2%
spread:away:+2.586.8%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.3%
spread:home:-1.530.3%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.3%
spread:away:+1.569.7%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 69.1%
spread:home:-0.555.1%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 53.2%
spread:away:+0.544.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.3%
spread:home:+0.580.0%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.4%
spread:away:-0.520.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.9%
spread:home:+1.593.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.9%
spread:away:-1.56.7%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.1%
spread:home:+2.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home73.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away26.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.20 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7010349622659237304 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.14 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Tottenham win55.1%55.4% ± 0.2+0.35 pts
Draw24.9%24.1% ± 0.1−0.73 pts
Coventry win20.0%20.4% ± 0.1+0.38 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.20 pts (total_goals:under:4.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Tottenham
40.5% ± 0.2 (exact 40.4%)
Coventry
18.9% ± 0.1 (exact 18.8%)

Goal difference (Tottenham minus Coventry)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.3% ± 0.0
  4. -31.4% ± 0.0
  5. -25.0% ± 0.1
  6. -113.7% ± 0.1
  7. 024.1% ± 0.1
  8. 125.0% ± 0.1
  9. 217.1% ± 0.1
  10. 38.6% ± 0.1
  11. 43.3% ± 0.1
  12. 51.1% ± 0.0
  13. >50.4% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Tottenham 1–0 Coventry12.7% ± 0.112.4%
Tottenham 1–1 Coventry11.4% ± 0.111.8%
Tottenham 2–0 Coventry10.5% ± 0.110.6%
Tottenham 2–1 Coventry9.7% ± 0.19.6%
Tottenham 0–0 Coventry7.6% ± 0.17.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Tottenham
mean 1.67 · variance 1.68 · ± 0.004
Coventry
mean 0.90 · variance 0.90 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move tottenham win by +3.4 pts (to 58.5%). Expected goals move +0.05 for Tottenham and −0.07 for Coventry.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Tottenham win55.1%58.5%+3.4 pts
Draw24.9%23.6%−1.3 pts
Coventry win20.0%17.9%−2.1 pts
Expected goals1.67 – 0.911.72 – 0.83+0.05 / −0.07

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Tottenham

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. PorroESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Kinsky)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Coventry

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 16.4% of goals share out

  • H. Wright F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Awoniyi F Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 16.4% · effect −16.4% REPORTED
  • L. Woolfenden D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Eccles M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Amenda D Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Latibeaudiere D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Kesler-Hayden Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Rushworth)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move tottenham win by −0.8 pts (to 54.2%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Tottenham and −0.02 for Coventry.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Tottenham win55.1%54.2%−0.8 pts
Draw24.9%25.0%+0.1 pts
Coventry win20.0%20.8%+0.8 pts
Expected goals1.67 – 0.911.61 – 0.89−0.07 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Tottenham rate ×0.96 band 0.63–1.48

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.024 (-0.127 to 0.084) CONFIRMED

Coventry rate ×0.98 band 0.64–1.54

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.009 (-0.099 to 0.106) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move tottenham win by +2.2 pts (to 57.3%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Tottenham and −0.09 for Coventry.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Tottenham win55.1%57.3%+2.2 pts
Draw24.9%24.4%−0.5 pts
Coventry win20.0%18.4%−1.7 pts
Expected goals1.67 – 0.911.65 – 0.82−0.02 / −0.09

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Tottenham

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. PorroESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Kinsky)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Coventry

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 16.4% of goals share out

  • H. Wright F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Awoniyi F Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 16.4% · effect −16.4% REPORTED
  • L. Woolfenden D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Eccles M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Amenda D Missing Fixture (Calf Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Latibeaudiere D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Kesler-Hayden Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Rushworth)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Tottenham rate ×0.96 band 0.63–1.48

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.024 (-0.127 to 0.084) CONFIRMED

Coventry rate ×0.98 band 0.64–1.54

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.7272727272727273 · contribution -0.009 (-0.099 to 0.106) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Tottenham win55.1%53.7%−1.4 pts
Draw24.9%24.9%+0.0 pts
Coventry win20.0%21.4%+1.3 pts
Expected goals—1.61 – 0.91−0.06 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 627 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)V. Torp 18% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Tottenham

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 48% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Solanke F16.0% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00158%
C. Gallagher M7.8% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00157%
M. van de Ven D6.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00153%
M. Tel F4.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00148%
A. Gray M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00166%
J. P. van Hecke D3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00179%
P. Porro D3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00141%
M. Kudus M2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00137%

Coventry

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
V. Torp M18.4% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00127%
J. Dasilva D15.7% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00168%
J. Rudoni M14.5% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00175%
E. Mason-Clark M11.7% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00162%

Run 1010 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 505, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Tottenham)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Coventry)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationTottenham 1 absent regular · Coventry 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Tottenham

9.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Chelsea +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 10 OctPLA Manchester UnitedD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLA Chelsea+4.9 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLH Crystal Palace+11.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Porro (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Tottenham: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
SávioM090—
L. BergvallM066—
A. GrayD090—
J. van Hecke · regularD090—
S. TonaliM090—
A. Kinský · regularG0900' Czechia, 13 d before
C. Gallagher · regularM074—
D. Udogie · regularD074—
M. SenesiD089—
M. KudusM066—
D. SolankeF090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Coventry

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Fulham +4.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 12 OctPLH NewcastleNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLH Fulham+4.8 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLH Sunderland+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 8 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 1 regular CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 8 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Coventry: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. DasilvaM00—
C. RushworthG00—
M. GrimesM00—
F. OnyekaM00—
S. MfuniD00—
B. Thomas · regularD00—
J. RudoniF00—
E. Mason-ClarkF00—
C. YirenkyiM00—
E. PinnockD00—
B. Thomas-AsanteF00—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Tottenham55%—65%
Draw25%—20%
Coventry20%—14%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 27 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Tottenham a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (55% vs 65%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 5 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Tottenham

  • Tottenham: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.8 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • D1–1at Manchester United10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Aston Villa19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Everton12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Nottingham Forest5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Newcastle29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Brentford22 Aug · in model evidence

Coventry

  • Coventry: 5 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.2 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 20%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 0%; over 1.5 goals in 40%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v Brighton13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Manchester City5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Hull City29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Arsenal21 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals8%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more5%
Over 1.573%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.526%
Both teams score49%

Tottenham

Expected goals1.67
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet40%

Coventry

Expected goals0.91
Scores at least once60%
Scores 2 or more23%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynot available

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season18th v 19th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Tottenham

18th of 20 · 3 pts · W0 D3 L3 from 6 games · scored 3, conceded 9

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 5) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 4 in 6 games

Last five league games DLDDL (most recent last)

Coventry

19th of 20 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L4 from 5 games · scored 1, conceded 10

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 0, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets3 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 6 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Tottenham to win55.1%55.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
Draw24.9%24.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
Coventry to win20.0%20.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Double chance
Tottenham or draw limited evidence80.0%79.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Coventry or draw limited evidence44.9%44.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 36¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.1%75.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 81¢
Draw no bet
Tottenham to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence73.3%73.1% ± 0.2no
Coventry to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence26.7%26.9% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence92.1%92.4% ± 0.1no
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence7.9%7.6% ± 0.1no
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence73.1%72.7% ± 0.1no
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence26.9%27.3% ± 0.1no
Over 2.5 goals in total47.6%47.8% ± 0.2no
Under 2.5 goals in total52.4%52.2% ± 0.2no
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence25.9%25.8% ± 0.1no
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence74.1%74.2% ± 0.1no
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence11.9%11.7% ± 0.1no
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence88.1%88.3% ± 0.1no
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence4.7%4.6% ± 0.1no
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence95.3%95.4% ± 0.1no
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence48.7%48.2% ± 0.2no
At least one team fails to score limited evidence51.3%51.8% ± 0.2no
Team goals
Tottenham over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.2%81.1% ± 0.1no
Tottenham under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.8%18.9% ± 0.1no
Tottenham over 1.5 goals limited evidence49.7%49.7% ± 0.2no
Tottenham under 1.5 goals limited evidence50.3%50.3% ± 0.2no
Tottenham over 2.5 goals limited evidence23.5%23.6% ± 0.1no
Tottenham under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.5%76.4% ± 0.1no
Tottenham over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.9%8.8% ± 0.1no
Tottenham under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.1%91.2% ± 0.1no
Coventry over 0.5 goals limited evidence59.6%59.5% ± 0.2no
Coventry under 0.5 goals limited evidence40.4%40.5% ± 0.2no
Coventry over 1.5 goals limited evidence23.0%22.9% ± 0.1no
Coventry under 1.5 goals limited evidence77.0%77.1% ± 0.1no
Coventry over 2.5 goals limited evidence6.4%6.3% ± 0.1no
Coventry under 2.5 goals limited evidence93.6%93.7% ± 0.1no
Coventry over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.4%1.3% ± 0.0no
Coventry under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.6%98.7% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Tottenham to win by 3 or more limited evidence13.2%13.3% ± 0.1no
Tottenham to win by 2 or more limited evidence30.3%30.4% ± 0.1no
Tottenham to win by 1 or more limited evidence55.1%55.4% ± 0.2no
Tottenham not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence80.0%79.6% ± 0.1no
Tottenham not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence93.3%93.3% ± 0.1no
Tottenham not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.3%98.3% ± 0.0no
Coventry to win by 3 or more limited evidence1.7%1.7% ± 0.0no
Coventry to win by 2 or more limited evidence6.7%6.7% ± 0.1no
Coventry to win by 1 or more limited evidence20.0%20.4% ± 0.1no
Coventry not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence44.9%44.6% ± 0.2no
Coventry not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence69.7%69.6% ± 0.1no
Coventry not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence86.8%86.7% ± 0.1no
Clean sheet
Tottenham clean sheet grid40.4%40.5% ± 0.2no
Coventry clean sheet grid18.8%18.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.1% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham by exactly 1—25.0% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham by exactly 2—17.1% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham by exactly 3—8.6% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham by exactly 4—3.3% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham by exactly 5—1.1% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by exactly 1—13.7% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry by exactly 2—5.0% ± 0.1not listed
Coventry by exactly 3—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by exactly 4—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Tottenham by 6 or more—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Coventry by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Tottenham 1–0 Coventry—12.7% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham 1–1 Coventry—11.4% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham 2–0 Coventry—10.5% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham 2–1 Coventry—9.7% ± 0.1not listed
Tottenham 0–0 Coventry—7.6% ± 0.1not listed

Tottenham v Coventry: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
20%
14%
YES on Coventry to WinCoventry wins in 90 minutes
20%15¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 423 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
20%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%21¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 15,006 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Tottenham to win (90 minutes)
55%
65%
YES on Tottenham to WinTottenham wins in 90 minutes
55%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 26,261 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawTottenham or Coventry wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%81¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,332 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Coventry to WinTottenham wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
80%86¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 5,815 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Tottenham to WinCoventry wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
45%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 55.1% · draw 24.9% · away 20.0%
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.91
Tottenham eligible matches
144 (144 with xG)
Coventry eligible matches
5 (5 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

TottenhamOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctManchester Unitedaway1–11.62–0.82D
19 SeptAston Villahome2–31.56–1.16L
12 SeptEvertonhome0–00.69–1.11D
5 SeptNottingham Forestaway0–01.06–0.92D
29 AugNewcastlehome0–21.12–0.72L
22 AugBrentfordaway0–30.57–3.87L
CoventryOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptNottingham Forestaway1–00.67–1.10W
13 SeptBrightonhome0–51.33–2.81L
5 SeptManchester Cityaway0–11.37–2.12L
29 AugHull Cityhome0–11.29–0.72L
21 AugArsenalaway0–30.20–1.88L

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Coventry to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-COV
20.0%14.5%+5.5 pts0.14 / 0.150.86423 / 5,815Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Tottenham to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TOT
55.1%65.0%−9.9 pts0.64 / 0.660.3626,261 / 676Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TIE
24.9%20.0%+4.9 pts0.19 / 0.210.8115,006 / 6,332Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:08:35.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
55.1%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
24.9%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
20.0%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
47.6%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
52.4%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:08:35.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesnot_observed—
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Tottenhamok11/10/2026, 01:39:08 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Coventryok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home55.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away20.0%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x80.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x244.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.1%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes48.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no51.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.57.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.573.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.526.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.547.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.552.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.525.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.574.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.511.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.588.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.581.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.518.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.549.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.550.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.523.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.559.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.540.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.523.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.577.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.513.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.586.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.530.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.569.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.555.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.544.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.593.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.56.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home73.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away26.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 505 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:08:35