Got%OnIt

Profit Lab

1819 of 1912 positions

Build finds combinations. Lab evaluates individual market contracts. Each row prices one side of one Kalshi contract as if $5.00 were spent on it at the current ask, and sets that against Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate.

Rows are ordered by edge after calibration: the model’s conservative chance minus the break-even chance after the fee, in points. Dollar figures are shown but never used to rank, because a dollar return grows with 1 ÷ price and would put cheap long shots first whatever the evidence. A positive figure means the model sees potential value before model error, liquidity and price movement are accounted for. Nothing on this page is a recommendation or a guaranteed profit; every dollar figure is hypothetical. Only individual contracts are quoted on Kalshi — never a five-leg combination — so a Build set cannot be bought as one price.

How to use Lab
  1. Compare the prices. “Got%OnIt chance” is what the model thinks will happen; “Kalshi price” is what one contract costs now; “Break-even chance” is how often the side would need to win to cover that price and the estimated fee.
  2. Review the evidence. “Evaluated market” means the market type has been tested out of sample; “Model-supported, not evaluated” has retrospective support only; “Limited evidence” is shown for research. Open “Review match” for the match-level evidence.
  3. Understand the uncertainty. The model has over-stated some positions in the past (the calibration gap); the “Conservative estimate” subtracts that documented gap. Positions picked because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than stated (the selection effect, shown as “Selected-leg record”). On every fair comparison so far the market has been at least as accurate as the model.
  4. Track on paper. “Track on paper” saves the row’s figures at this instant. Nothing is placed and no money moves.
  5. Check the result later. Paper positions settle after the match under Records → Paper positions.
Shown
1819
Aligned (all criteria)
45
Positive estimated return
442
Also positive after calibration gap
254
Stake per position
$5.00
Selected-leg record
48.3% won vs 59.5% stated (29 settled)

How often legs chosen because the model disagreed with the market actually won, against what the model stated for them.

Reset

  1. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +17.0 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 39.7%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$2.55 on $5.16
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.22 on $5.16

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts212 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 22 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-3 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  2. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +16.2 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$1.44 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.30 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 21 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-4 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  3. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to WinWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +13.5 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 44.7%
    Kelly fraction
    24.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.64 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.49 on $4.92

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,206 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 291.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 17 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  4. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +13.0 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    19.3%
    Estimated return
    +$2.31 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.08 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts595 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 37.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  5. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBarcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +12.9 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$1.22 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.16 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts379 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 42.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR2 · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  6. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +10.7 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    13.2%
    Estimated return
    +$3.63 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.90 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts705 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-2 · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  7. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +10.7 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    23.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.02 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.96 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM2 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  8. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Paris Saint GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +10.5 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    23.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.43 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.94 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts38 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 4.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 24 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 514, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 13¢ · book 107% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  9. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +10.4 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    16.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.45 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.36 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-4 · YES
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  10. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +10.4 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.76 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.73 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,395 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 485.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  11. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +9.6 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    23.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.82 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.77 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts474 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 59.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-3 · YES
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  12. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +9.2 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.68 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.55 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts617 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 102.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  13. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +9.1 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    19.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.01 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.82 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  14. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to WinWins if: Hull City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    +9.0 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    11.4%
    Estimated return
    +$2.69 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.25 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,457 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 658.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  15. Sporting CPvLask LinzUEFA Champions League · Wed 21 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSporting CP to WinWins if: Sporting CP wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.8 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    21.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.26 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.70 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.6 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 1.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 23 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT21SPOASK-SPO · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 525, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 10¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  16. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.4 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    12.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.36 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.26 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-4 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  17. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.4 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    23.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.81 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.67 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 27.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-4 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  18. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.3 points
    conservative 49% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    14.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.17 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.00 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,314 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 192.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  19. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.3 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    13.5%
    Estimated return
    +$1.16 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.08 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,209 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 93.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  20. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.2 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    10.2%
    Estimated return
    +$2.46 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.12 on $5.23

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts209 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 8.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-5 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  21. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to WinWins if: Levante wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.7 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    12.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.18 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.00 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts35,777 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 2752.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  22. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to WinWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.6 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    15.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.90 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.76 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,918 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 291.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  23. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.5 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    15.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.01 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.75 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,194 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 119.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-3 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  24. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to WinWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.5 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    10.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.43 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.20 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,037 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 189.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 29%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  25. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.3 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    20.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.51 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 52.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI2 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  26. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to WinWins if: Lens wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.3 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    16.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.82 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.65 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts417 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 46.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  27. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.2 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    16.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.71 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.65 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-3 · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  28. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.2 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.43 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,007 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 834.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  29. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.1 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    9.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.94 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.49 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,900 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 280.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  30. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lens wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.9 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    10.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.18 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.04 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,015 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 67.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL2 · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  31. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.9 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    12.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.13 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.82 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts642 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 53.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-3 · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  32. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.8 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    24.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.60 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.48 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,077 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 153.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-4 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  33. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.8 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    12.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.96 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.75 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 125.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-4 · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  34. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.7 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    15.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.66 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.60 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts728 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 80.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG2 · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  35. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.6 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    9.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.30 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.05 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts359 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 22.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  36. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLe Mans to WinWins if: Le Mans wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.5 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    9.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.23 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.98 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts135 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 9.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  37. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.5 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    12.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.84 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.65 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-4 · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  38. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.4 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    7.7%
    Estimated return
    +$2.78 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.13 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,408 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 73.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  39. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.4 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    7.5%
    Estimated return
    +$2.42 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.23 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts464 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  40. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to WinWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.3 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    14.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.69 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.56 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,619 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 179.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  41. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.2 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    6.8%
    Estimated return
    +$4.49 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$3.84 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 3.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-6 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  42. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.2 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-2 · YES
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  43. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.1 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.15 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.79 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 92.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN1 · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  44. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn, or Fulham wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.1 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts720 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 143.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  45. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +6.1 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    11.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.95 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.67 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts363 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 33.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-3 · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  46. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOTottenham to WinWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.9 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.95 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.76 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts676 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 52.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Tottenham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TOT · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  47. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.9 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.38 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.35 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 114.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM3 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  48. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESCrystal Palace to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.8 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    7.2%
    Estimated return
    +$2.03 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.58 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,058 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 187.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  49. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.7 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    17.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,589 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 227.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  50. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.7 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    8.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.34 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.03 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,475 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 193.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV1 · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  51. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to WinWins if: Newcastle wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.5 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    10.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.81 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.61 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts265,848 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 24168.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  52. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.4 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    17.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.48 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts383 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 54.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  53. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.4 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    15.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.48 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,608 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1086.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  54. AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAS Roma to WinWins if: AS Roma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.4 points
    conservative 32% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    7.3%
    Estimated return
    +$2.09 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.08 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts270 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.1 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 13.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-ROM · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  55. Real MadridvRB LeipzigUEFA Champions League · Wed 21 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.2 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    12.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.85 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.41 on $4.62

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts27 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.5 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 3.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 17 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT21RMARBL-RMA · YES
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 524, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 9¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  56. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.1 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    9.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.76 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.51 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,743 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 174.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-3 · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  57. MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESCagliari to WinWins if: Cagliari wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.0 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    7.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.15 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.79 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,394 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 149.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Cagliari to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-CAG · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  58. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn, or FC Augsburg wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.9 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 4.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  59. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.9 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    6.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.58 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.12 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,338 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 58.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  60. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.8 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    6.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.70 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.82 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  61. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or AC Milan wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.7 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    19.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 106.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  62. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.7 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.54

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts397 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 79.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  63. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    22.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.30 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,367 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1394.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  64. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.5 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    24.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.1 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-5 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  65. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.4 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    8.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.51 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.44 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,289 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2428.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-3 · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  66. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.4 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    14.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.43 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.31 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,718 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 245.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-4 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  67. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.4 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$2.84 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.42 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,138 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA2 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  68. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.3 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    12.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.52 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,654 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 236.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-5 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  69. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to WinWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.3 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    8.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.04 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.43 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts18,241 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.7 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 1824.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 13 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-RMA · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  70. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.3 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    14.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,915 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 273.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-4 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  71. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.2 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    7.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.13 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.50 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,757 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 313.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  72. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLe Mans to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Le Mans wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.2 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$2.03 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.38 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,019 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 30.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN2 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  73. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.2 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    17.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,789 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 964.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  74. Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.1 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    9.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.54 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.37 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts211 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 23.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-4 · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  75. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.1 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    20.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts622 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 103.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-2 · YES
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  76. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.1 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.13 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.70 on $5.00

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts873 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 51.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-3 · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  77. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.1 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    5.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.05 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.86 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22,991 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1094.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  78. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.1 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.82 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.18 on $5.22

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 38.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  79. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.0 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    14.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts622 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 88.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW2 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  80. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOInter to WinWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.0 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    6.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.65 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.48 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,079 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 423.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-INT · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  81. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.0 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.02 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.68 on $5.00

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,008 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 59.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA2 · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  82. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.33 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.78 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts958 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 47.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-2 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  83. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    15.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,961 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 826.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV1 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  84. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    4.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.70 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.00 on $5.23

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts407 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-2 · NO
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  85. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    11.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 52.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  86. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.8 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.2%
    Estimated return
    +$1.28 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.77 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,035 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 51.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-3 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  87. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.8 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-5 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  88. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.7 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    4.1%
    Estimated return
    +$2.79 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.32 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,309 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 21.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL2 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  89. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.7 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.86 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.74 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17,334 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 866.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-4 · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  90. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.7 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    5.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.81 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.48 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-3 · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  91. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.7 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    9.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.44 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts213 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 58%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-4 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  92. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.6 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    3.8%
    Estimated return
    +$3.27 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.53 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 7.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  93. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.5 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.1%
    Estimated return
    +$1.77 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.34 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,711 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 71.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA3 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  94. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.5 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    7.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.38 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.32 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,918 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 213.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-3 · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  95. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.5 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.70 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.59 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts919 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 54.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-4 · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  96. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.4 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    21.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.20 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts680 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 113.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  97. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.4 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.65 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,547 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1378.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  98. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.4 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    12.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.24 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-5 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  99. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to WinWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.3 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    5.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.57 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,180 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 765.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  100. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.3 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    6.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.29 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-4 · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  101. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.3 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    6.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.64 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.36 on $5.15

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,690 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 153.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-3 · NO
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  102. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.2 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    3.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.69 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.05 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 34.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG2 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  103. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to WinWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.2 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts28,168 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 4024.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  104. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.1 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $4.39

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 443.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  105. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.1 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    9.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts64,995 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 9284.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  106. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.1 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    16.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.30 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts647 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 107.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-6 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  107. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.0 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    12.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $4.58

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-2 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  108. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.0 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    11.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts363 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-2 · YES
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  109. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.9 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,539 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 362.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-4 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  110. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.9 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    3.1%
    Estimated return
    +$3.19 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.44 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  111. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.8 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    11.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.17 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts748 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 124.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-4 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  112. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESGenoa to WinWins if: Genoa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.8 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    3.2%
    Estimated return
    +$2.10 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.25 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 55.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  113. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.8 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    3.0%
    Estimated return
    +$2.09 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.51 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE3 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  114. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOInter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.7 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    8.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 160.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  115. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.7 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    22.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.39

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts758 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 151.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  116. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.7 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    2.9%
    Estimated return
    +$3.06 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.22 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,737 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 45.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  117. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.6 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    23.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 589.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  118. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to WinWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.6 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.35 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,761 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1823.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-COV · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  119. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to WinWins if: Coventry wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.6 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    3.1%
    Estimated return
    +$1.37 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.85 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts423 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 12.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-COV · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  120. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.5 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts766 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 76.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  121. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn, or FSV Mainz 05 wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.5 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    13.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts616 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 102.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M052 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  122. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to WinWins if: Osasuna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.5 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.36 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,307 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 589.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  123. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.5 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    3.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.15 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.55 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,218 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-2 · NO
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  124. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOJuventus to WinWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.5 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 44.7%
    Kelly fraction
    4.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.43 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.92

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,348 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 304.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  125. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.4 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    3.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.80 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.54 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,592 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 254.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3 · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  126. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia to WinWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    17.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $4.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,777 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 355.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  127. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.4 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    2.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.55 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.08 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,034 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 67.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-5 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  128. Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.4 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    3.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.74 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.36 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-3 · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  129. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.38 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,022 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 113.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-4 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  130. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.62

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-4 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  131. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $4.25

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,086 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 217.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-6 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  132. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    2.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.45 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.70 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,152 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 37.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-TIE · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  133. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.16 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts501 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 100.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-5 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  134. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    3.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.04 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.47 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,289 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 109.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-2 · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  135. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.2 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.16 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts718 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 143.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-5 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  136. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESViking to WinWins if: Viking wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.2 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    2.3%
    Estimated return
    +$4.19 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$2.71 on $5.34

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts636 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 5.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Viking to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)
  137. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.2 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.43 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.84

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,210 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 245.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-3 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  138. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESValencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.1 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.99 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.05 on $5.32

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts737 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF2 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  139. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.1 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    6.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-4 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  140. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.1 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.10 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,045 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 209.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-5 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  141. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.0 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    7.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  142. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.0 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    2.3%
    Estimated return
    +$1.08 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.70 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts727 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 20.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-5 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  143. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOEstac Troyes to WinWins if: Lens wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.9 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    9.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $4.76

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,286 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 214.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  144. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESValencia to WinWins if: Valencia wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.9 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    2.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.50 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.36 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 7.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  145. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Betis to WinWins if: Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.9 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    2.3%
    Estimated return
    +$2.59 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.59 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,667 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 150.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  146. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.9 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    8.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts217 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 36.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-5 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  147. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESCrystal Palace to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    2.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.58 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.13 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,645 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  148. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    13.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.09 on $4.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-6 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  149. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOToulouse to WinWins if: Le Mans wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,051 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 131.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  150. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Betis to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Betis wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.9%
    Estimated return
    +$2.57 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$1.27 on $5.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts648 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  151. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    5.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.49 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,451 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.1 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 1778.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  152. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 54% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    3.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-3 · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  153. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOChelsea to WinWins if: Everton wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.8 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.62

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,019 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1377.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  154. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.7 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    2.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.69 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts675 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 42.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-3 · NO
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  155. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.7 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    2.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.85 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.33 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts749 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 39.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-2 · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  156. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.7 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    2.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.37 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 62.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2 · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  157. Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.7 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    4.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 31.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-4 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  158. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.7 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    1.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.10 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.75 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts917 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  159. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOJuventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    5.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,329 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1332.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV2 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  160. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    3.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.37 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,618 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 290.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-3 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  161. Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESManchester City to WinWins if: Manchester City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    3.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.81 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.17 on $5.15

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts54,736 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 75 matches · price 24 min old · 4976.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.4 points on 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  162. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or AC Milan wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    17.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.54

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,114 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 222.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  163. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    24.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.68

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 673.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  164. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAngers to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn, or Angers wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    13.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG2 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  165. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.5 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    1.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.03 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $5.23

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,503 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 173.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  166. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.5 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.77

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-1 · YES
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  167. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESMarseille to WinWins if: Marseille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.4 points
    conservative 49% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    2.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,852 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 585.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  168. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.3 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.48 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.20 on $5.19

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts700 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 46.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-4 · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  169. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    3.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.09 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,191 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3455.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-4 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  170. BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESLiverpool to WinWins if: Liverpool wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $4.89

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts38,314 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2947.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  171. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    2.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-3 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  172. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    1.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.85 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-2 · NO
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  173. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.58

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts538 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 89.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-2 · YES
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  174. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    2.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.10 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts727 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 80.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-3 · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  175. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Union Berlin wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    3.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts71 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB2 · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  176. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.64

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,645 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 440.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-4 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  177. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    2.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts851 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 77.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-3 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  178. GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESGalatasaray to WinWins if: Galatasaray wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    1.2%
    Estimated return
    +$3.72 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.55 on $5.32

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts60 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.3 points on 37 matches · price 24 min old · 1.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Galatasaray to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 7.9 points on 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  179. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    8.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.06 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts18,828 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3765.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  180. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    19.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.06 on $4.72

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1473.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-6 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  181. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOEstac Troyes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lens wins or the match is drawn, or Estac Troyes wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    14.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.63

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,104 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 220.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST2 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  182. Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESShakhtar Donetsk to WinWins if: Shakhtar Donetsk wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    1.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.78 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22,224 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 1709.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Shakhtar Donetsk to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-SHA · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  183. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    NapolivBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to WinWins if: Napoli wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    2.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.09 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±5.8 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 14 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20NAPBOG-NAP · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 513, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  184. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$1.21 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.64 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts636 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  185. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLe Mans to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Le Mans wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$1.42 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.72 on $5.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts899 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  186. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    13.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.63

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts641 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 128.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-6 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  187. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    2.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23,352 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2919.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-4 · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  188. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.0 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    2.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.86

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts549 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 68.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU3 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  189. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 195.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-4 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  190. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    1.0%
    Estimated return
    +$1.39 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.74 on $5.31

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts737 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 8.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-6 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  191. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.22 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.06 on $4.94

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts186 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 26.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-6 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  192. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    3.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts730 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 121.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM2 · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  193. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-4 · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  194. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDeportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.62 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP2 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  195. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    14.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $4.72

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 287.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-6 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  196. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.53 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.13 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-3 · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  197. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLorient to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lorient wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0.9%
    Estimated return
    +$1.19 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.34 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts821 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 18.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL2 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  198. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    4.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.99

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts607 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 101.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-5 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  199. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    4.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,150 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2525.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  200. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAngers to WinWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,713 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 244.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  201. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.27 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $5.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-2 · NO
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  202. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese to WinWins if: Udinese wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.49 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $5.18

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22,059 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1297.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  203. Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAston Villa to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    1.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.06 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts39,777 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.5 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 4972.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL · YES
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  204. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,117 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 159.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA3 · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  205. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.10 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-3 · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  206. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOFenerbahçe to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    4.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $4.99

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,532 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.3 points on 105 matches · price 24 min old · 2088.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  207. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOChelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Everton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    3.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,184 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1197.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  208. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0.7%
    Estimated return
    +$1.29 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.57 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts720 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 8.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-1 · NO
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  209. BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESLiverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Liverpool wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,310 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 48.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC2 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  210. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $5.11

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-2 · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  211. LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESLens to WinWins if: Lens wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.67 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.88

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26,186 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 2182.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  212. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.6 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    8.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.63

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17,109 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3421.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  213. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLazio to WinWins if: Lazio wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.6 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.70 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.16 on $5.14

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,956 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 257.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  214. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    3.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts692 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 115.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  215. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESMarseille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Marseille wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.29 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts503 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM2 · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  216. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0.6%
    Estimated return
    +$1.01 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.39 on $5.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,198 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-1 · NO
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  217. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    3.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,171 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 195.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  218. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    2.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.58

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts219 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 36.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-5 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  219. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.84 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.15 on $5.22

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts354 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 12.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-TIE · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  220. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.88 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.32 on $5.28

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts739 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  221. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.49

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,292 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 258.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  222. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    10.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.77

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,418 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1683.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  223. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOMonaco to WinWins if: Lorient wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    1.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,434 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 270.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  224. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFSV Mainz 05 to WinWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    1.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $4.94

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,468 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 433.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-M05 · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  225. MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOMonza to WinWins if: Cagliari wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 62.7%
    Kelly fraction
    1.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $5.02

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts715 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 89.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monza to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-MON · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  226. Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESManchester United to WinWins if: Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.93 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $5.20

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts514 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.5 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 27.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  227. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts178 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU2 · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  228. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.99 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $5.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts417 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  229. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.11 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.40 on $5.34

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,719 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 17.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  230. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.88 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.12 on $5.26

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts184 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-3 · NO
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  231. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-3 · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 34.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  232. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    1.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts908 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 113.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-3 · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  233. Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1061.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-4 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  234. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.4%
    Estimated return
    +$1.20 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.14 on $5.23

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts910 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 22.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-2 · NO
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  235. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOJuventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    3.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,467 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 293.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  236. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    8.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.82

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts49,261 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9852.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  237. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,108 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 92.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-4 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  238. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    5.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.72

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts769 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 153.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-6 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  239. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,725 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 817.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-4 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  240. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Union Berlin wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.29 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.13

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 27.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  241. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.2 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $5.03

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts61,931 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5630.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-3 · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  242. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.2 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.62 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $5.10

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,006 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 652.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  243. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.2 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.76

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,130 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 688.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-5 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  244. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.2 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.73 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $5.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,071 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 29.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-1 · NO
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  245. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to WinWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.98

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts726 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 72.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  246. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Coventry wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 98% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    3.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts79,512 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15902.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  247. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.76

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-5 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  248. Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.75

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts444 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 49.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-3 · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  249. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOVenezia to WinWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,672 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.1 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 445.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  250. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOMonaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lorient wins or the match is drawn, or Monaco wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts424 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 70.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM2 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  251. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.59 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $5.31

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ2 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  252. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.0 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.78 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $5.22

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts990 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 34.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-2 · NO
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  253. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Napoli wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.0 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $5.19

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 33.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP2 · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  254. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.0 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $5.27

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts767 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  255. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    3¢
    166 contracts for $4.98 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    3.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.0 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 3.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.24 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $5.32

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 2%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 166 contracts at 3¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.03 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  256. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.0 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  257. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.0 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.00 on $4.64

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,724 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 454.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-4 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  258. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    7 contracts for $4.69 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.0 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 68.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.80
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.00 on $4.80

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,287 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 183.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-4 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 67¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  259. BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBrentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Liverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.00 on $4.68

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts727 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 145.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  260. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $5.03

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10,539 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 810.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-3 · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  261. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $5.06

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,502 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 475.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-TIE · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  262. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $5.03

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts691 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 62.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-3 · NO
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  263. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $5.06

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,847 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 92.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-TIE · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  264. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.27 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $5.03

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 124.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-3 · NO
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  265. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.72

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts744 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 148.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  266. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAEK Athens FC to WinWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.49

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts47 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.1 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 9.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-AEK · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 4¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  267. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.1 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.82

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,091 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 218.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  268. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.06 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $5.15

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,086 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 98.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA2 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  269. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.14 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.64

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-5 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  270. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.43 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $5.18

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,544 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 90.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-2 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  271. Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 54% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.84

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts204 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 22.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-4 · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  272. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Estac Troyes or Lens wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.70

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts552 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 92.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-TIE · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  273. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.2 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25,946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 5189.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  274. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Atalanta or Venezia wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.3 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.81

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,530 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1421.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-TIE · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  275. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESEspanyol to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Espanyol wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.3 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.96 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $5.28

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts720 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP2 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  276. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.3 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.01 on $4.54

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts637 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 127.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-6 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  277. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.3 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,942 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 92.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3 · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  278. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDeportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.3 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.32

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,390 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 47.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP3 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  279. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOVenezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,314 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 262.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  280. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAngers to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn, or Angers wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts891 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 178.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  281. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  282. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOVenezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 99% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.1 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 99%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  283. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.44

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts199 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 39.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-6 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  284. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOMalaga to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Sociedad wins or the match is drawn, or Malaga wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.00 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.49

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF2 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  285. Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NO1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.00 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.44

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  286. Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.94

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts54 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 7.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  287. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.70

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-5 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  288. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 54% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.93

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts909 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 101.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-5 · NO
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  289. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOMalaga to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Sociedad wins or the match is drawn, or Malaga wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 23.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  290. Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.4 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.72 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts37 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-2 · NO
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  291. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $5.31

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,847 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 178.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  292. LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts444 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 88.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  293. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.02 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  294. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $5.30

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts34 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-1 · NO
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  295. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.54

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,289 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 257.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  296. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $5.31

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts691 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 8.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  297. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.92 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,651 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 36.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-2 · NO
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  298. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $5.31

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts752 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  299. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.54

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,657 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1731.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-6 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  300. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.49

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-6 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  301. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $5.27

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 22.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  302. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.47

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,036 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 172.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-5 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  303. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    3¢
    166 contracts for $4.98 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    3.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 3.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.97 on $5.32

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 2%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-1 · NO
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 166 contracts at 3¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.03 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  304. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,662 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 36.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  305. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Osasuna or Racing Santander wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.53

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts243 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 40.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-TIE · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  306. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.51 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $5.28

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts395 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-2 · NO
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  307. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESBologna to WinWins if: Bologna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.76 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts450 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 14.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  308. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,749 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 56.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-2 · NO
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  309. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.7 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.64 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts37 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-2 · NO
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  310. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.7 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.03 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,111 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 222.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-2 · YES
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  311. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NONottingham Forest to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Arsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Nottingham Forest wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.7 points
    conservative 98% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 99%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 11:35 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  312. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.7 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.06 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.35

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts564 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 112.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-6 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  313. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.7 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.00 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts606 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 121.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  314. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 49% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-4 · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  315. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOToulouse to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Le Mans wins or the match is drawn, or Toulouse wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts426 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 71.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC2 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  316. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts413 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 82.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  317. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.82

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  318. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESAlaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Alaves wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts712 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA2 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  319. Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.36 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts446 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 23.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-2 · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  320. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESNice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nice wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.8 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts705 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC2 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  321. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts917 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 26.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-5 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  322. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 98% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts401 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 80.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 99%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-1 · YES
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.97 · mid (side) 98.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  323. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESBologna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bologna wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.65 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.61 on $5.30

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts821 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  324. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBrentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Liverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,144 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 190.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE2 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  325. LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.87

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts684 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 97.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-4 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  326. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.04 on $4.39

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,015 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 202.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-6 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  327. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to WinWins if: Napoli wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.78

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,892 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1111.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP · YES
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  328. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLorient to WinWins if: Lorient wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.95 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,298 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 278.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  329. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOSporting CP to WinWins if: Lens wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.32 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.67

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26,594 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 3799.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  330. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.41 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31,196 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1356.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  331. Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSlovan Bratislava to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$2.52 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $5.32

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts710 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.0 points on 37 matches · price 24 min old · 14.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-SLO · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 7.9 points on 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  332. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESEverton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Everton wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −0.9 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,313 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 37.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE2 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  333. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOComo to WinWins if: Fiorentina wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.84

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts578 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 64.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  334. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOAuxerre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Le Havre wins or the match is drawn, or Auxerre wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts437 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 87.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX2 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  335. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.82

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts218 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 43.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-6 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  336. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$4.50 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.82 on $5.31

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,263 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 15.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-TIE · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  337. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts327 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 46.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-2 · YES
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  338. LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $5.15

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts919 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-3 · NO
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  339. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESGenoa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN2 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  340. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.0 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,851 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 192.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-4 · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  341. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOEstac Troyes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lens wins or the match is drawn, or Estac Troyes wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 98% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,951 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 390.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  342. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  343. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,104 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 50.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  344. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts680 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 136.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-2 · YES
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  345. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDeportivo La Coruna to WinWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.78

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,052 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 205.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  346. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Werder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.05 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts77 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  347. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $5.08

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-5 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  348. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,268 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 253.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  349. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts940 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 188.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-5 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  350. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  351. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Shakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens FC wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.1 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.47

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts166 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 27.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  352. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.35 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts658 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 28.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  353. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $5.15

    Below break-even (47% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,333 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1484.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-3 · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  354. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.72

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,194 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 238.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  355. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESSabah FA to WinWins if: Sabah FA wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.64 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $5.00

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts34,051 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.9 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 2003.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sabah FA to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SBH · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  356. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.1 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-6 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  357. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.72

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts823 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 164.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  358. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.19 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13,623 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 136.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  359. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.49

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts588 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 117.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-6 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  360. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bournemouth wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts511 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU3 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  361. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.2 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts717 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 143.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF2 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  362. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-4 · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  363. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  364. BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBrentford to WinWins if: Liverpool wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,687 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1085.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  365. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.06 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,164 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3032.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-1 · YES
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  366. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOComo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Fiorentina wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts987 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 164.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM2 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  367. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,710 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 142.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3 · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  368. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.94 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts924 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 13.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-6 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  369. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOSunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.3 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts620 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 124.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN2 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  370. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESIpswich to WinWins if: Ipswich wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.84 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,829 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 239.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  371. BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bournemouth wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $5.27

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts710 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 35.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU2 · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  372. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  373. Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts204 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-3 · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  374. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.01 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts702 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  375. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts722 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 144.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  376. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESLecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lecce wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts723 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  377. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.4 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.07 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts601 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 120.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  378. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Torino does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.5 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $5.27

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR1 · NO
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  379. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESRennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Rennes wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.5 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts927 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN2 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  380. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.5 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $5.18

    Below break-even (52% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,392 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 439.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2 · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  381. Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Freiburg to WinWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.5 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.81

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts917 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 152.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  382. FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESFrosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Frosinone wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $5.28

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,303 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 52.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO2 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  383. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.10 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts954 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  384. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  385. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.78

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-3 · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  386. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,767 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 128.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-5 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  387. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESRacing Santander to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Racing Santander wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,012 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN2 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  388. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.38 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts947 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 17.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-1 · NO
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  389. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NORayo Vallecano to WinWins if: Getafe wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts613 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 87.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-RVC · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  390. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.33 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts241 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-1 · NO
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  391. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts705 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 11.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-6 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  392. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts639 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 127.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  393. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESFrosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Frosinone wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,203 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 21.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  394. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOVillarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Elche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 202.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL3 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  395. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-1 · NO
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  396. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.6 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 100.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  397. Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESRennes to WinWins if: Rennes wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $5.04

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts866 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 54.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-REN · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  398. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.91 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.68 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  399. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.08 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts363 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 72.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  400. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.54

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,147 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 229.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-5 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  401. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESEverton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Everton wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.41 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts896 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  402. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOStrasbourg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Strasbourg wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  403. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESNewcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.7 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,299 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 28.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW3 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  404. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOBologna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Inter wins or the match is drawn, or Bologna wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  405. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW1 · YES
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  406. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.28 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts909 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  407. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,435 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 287.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  408. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOUnion Berlin to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Union Berlin wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,038 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 207.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  409. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESEintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts938 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 28.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE3 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  410. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,236 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 206.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-4 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  411. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.14 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,574 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 435.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  412. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESLeeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Leeds wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.8 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.14 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,235 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE3 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  413. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis FC to WinWins if: Paris FC wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,266 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 296.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-PAR · YES
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  414. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts699 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 116.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-2 · YES
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  415. UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.06 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,335 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 148.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-3 · NO
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  416. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOIpswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.09 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,287 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 457.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS2 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  417. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESRB Leipzig to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,663 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 125.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  418. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Sociedad to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Malaga wins or the match is drawn, or Real Sociedad wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,079 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 179.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO2 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  419. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.14 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.38 on $5.27

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,920 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 396.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-TIE · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  420. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.67 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts380 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-2 · NO
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  421. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.49 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $5.23

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,572 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  422. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,077 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 215.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-6 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  423. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.77

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts704 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 140.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  424. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −1.9 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.91

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  425. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 75.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  426. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.54 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,203 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 44.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  427. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lyon wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.61 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts503 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL3 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  428. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Aston Villa or Fenerbahçe wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.76

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,730 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.5 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 288.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-TIE · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  429. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Torino wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.76 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.42 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,660 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 65.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  430. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NO1. FC Köln to WinWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.0 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,128 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 188.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  431. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.94

    Below break-even (62% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,722 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 215.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-4 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  432. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,056 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 211.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  433. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.30 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.07 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts28 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  434. LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts449 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  435. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.30 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,328 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 21.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  436. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOHamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.10 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 6¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  437. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESEspanyol to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Espanyol wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.61 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.64 on $5.34

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts121 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  438. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOSunderland to WinWins if: Bournemouth wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,639 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 773.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  439. FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESFrosinone to WinWins if: Frosinone wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $4.88

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,699 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 391.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  440. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESNewcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts507 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW2 · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  441. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.66 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,257 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 40.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH2 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  442. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,010 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 376.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-4 · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  443. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.98

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,049 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 304.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-3 · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  444. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESStade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.81 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.18 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,018 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  445. Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.1 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.16 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.82 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts204 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-2 · NO
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  446. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOVillarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Elche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,667 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 333.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL2 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  447. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,484 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 4896.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-1 · YES
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  448. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,224 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 203.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-5 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  449. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts760 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 151.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  450. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,904 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 843.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-4 · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  451. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOFiorentina to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Como wins or the match is drawn, or Fiorentina wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,887 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 377.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  452. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.82 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts907 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  453. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 62.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  454. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  455. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.2 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,348 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 478.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI1 · YES
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  456. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.92 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.82 on $5.34

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts325 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-1 · NO
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  457. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts410 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 82.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-6 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  458. UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $5.18

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts723 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 42.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-2 · NO
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  459. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.11 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,388 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 277.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  460. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts414 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 82.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL3 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  461. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,339 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 40.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-2 · NO
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  462. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NORacing Santander to WinWins if: Osasuna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,348 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 224.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  463. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Betis to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Betis wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.47 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.33 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts72 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  464. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,295 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 659.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  465. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.3 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts398 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 79.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  466. AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAS Roma to WinWins if: AS Roma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.93

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.5 points on 58 matches · price 24 min old · 3.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-ROM · YES
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.0 points on 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 6¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  467. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Paris FC wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.18 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts929 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 18.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  468. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.82 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.30 on $5.27

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 9.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-6 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  469. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    1%
    Kalshi price
    3¢
    166 contracts for $4.98 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    3.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 1% vs break-even 3.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.84 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.94 on $5.32

    Below break-even (3% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 1%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 2%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-1 · NO
    Model
    1% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 166 contracts at 3¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.03 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  470. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts222 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 12.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-TIE · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  471. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NORB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL2 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  472. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts32,696 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 6539.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-6 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  473. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts367 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 73.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  474. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.63

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,557 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 311.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-6 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  475. BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBournemouth to WinWins if: Bournemouth wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.06 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.98

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts163 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 16.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  476. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.34 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.00 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,094 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  477. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,352 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 61.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  478. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOEspanyol to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Espanyol wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts450 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 90.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  479. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.77

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13,182 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 2636.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-6 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  480. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESEintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,129 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 70.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE2 · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  481. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  482. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts587 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-3 · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  483. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOAuxerre to WinWins if: Le Havre wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.4 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.87

    Below break-even (70% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 62.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  484. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  485. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.39 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.04 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts332 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 4.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  486. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOCelta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Alaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC3 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  487. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,208 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 172.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-4 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  488. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,088 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2681.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  489. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESLeeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Leeds wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.64 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts509 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE2 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  490. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOUdinese to WinWins if: Lecce wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts578 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 57.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  491. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.12 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  492. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.02 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.54 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts633 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-1 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  493. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts703 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.1 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 20.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-TIE · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  494. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLe Havre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Auxerre wins or the match is drawn, or Le Havre wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts899 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 179.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  495. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOLecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,335 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 267.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  496. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  497. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.44 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.09 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts506 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  498. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts29,694 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5938.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  499. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.5 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.63 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 37.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL2 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  500. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAEK Athens FC to WinWins if: Shakhtar Donetsk wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.60

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 14.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-AEK · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  501. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.24 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.82 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,683 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 23.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-1 · NO
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  502. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Torino scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.65 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.80 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  503. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.82 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.57 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts213 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  504. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESUdinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  505. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.49 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.14 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  506. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts212 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 42.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-6 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  507. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn, or FC Schalke 04 wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts835 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 167.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  508. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESHamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Hamburger SV wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts478 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 10.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  509. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLe Havre to WinWins if: Le Havre wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $5.01

    Below break-even (42% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,994 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 416.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  510. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.91

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  511. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts738 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 147.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  512. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.52 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22,721 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1136.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-TIE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  513. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Le Mans or Toulouse wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.47

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts169 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 28.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  514. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOManchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Leeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,298 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 459.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN2 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  515. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts640 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 128.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  516. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    7 contracts for $4.69 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 68.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.80
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.80

    Below break-even (69% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,954 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 279.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2 · YES
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 67¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  517. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESStrasbourg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Strasbourg wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.6 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.64 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts898 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  518. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESValencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.48 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.21 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts133 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  519. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts410 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 68.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-5 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  520. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOSassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Frosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.13 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,104 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 220.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS2 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  521. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla to WinWins if: Sevilla wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.48 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,002 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 18.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  522. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLe Havre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Le Havre wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.09 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.67 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts942 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  523. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESBologna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bologna wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.38 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.38 on $5.34

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  524. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.95 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.71 on $5.34

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,990 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 99.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-6 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  525. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Levante or Sevilla wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $5.08

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,561 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1223.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  526. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESNice to WinWins if: Nice wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,022 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 160.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  527. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Paris FC wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts930 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 42.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR2 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  528. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.7 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 58.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV1 · NO
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  529. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESStrasbourg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Strasbourg wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.46 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.46 on $5.34

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,013 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 8.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  530. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOIpswich to WinWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts19,205 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 3841.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  531. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,123 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 187.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-4 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  532. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts470 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 94.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  533. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-2 · NO
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  534. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESElche to WinWins if: Elche wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.86 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,511 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 145.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-ELC · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  535. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,845 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 263.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-4 · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  536. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts481 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 96.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-1 · YES
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.97 · mid (side) 98.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  537. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 39.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $5.16
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $5.16

    Below break-even (40% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,194 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 91.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-4 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  538. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.59 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts702 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 33.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  539. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.00 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts836 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-2 · NO
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  540. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.29 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.82 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,919 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  541. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESFiorentina to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Fiorentina wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $5.23

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,191 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 29.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO2 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  542. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.8 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.45 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.02 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts929 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  543. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-2 · NO
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  544. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOStade Brestois 29 to WinWins if: Lille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts804 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 134.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-STB · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  545. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,006 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1201.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  546. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOStade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.14 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  547. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts531 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 31.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-TIE · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  548. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Paderborn 07 to WinWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.31 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts428 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 21.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  549. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 78.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  550. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.82

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  551. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESStrasbourg to WinWins if: Strasbourg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.71 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.03 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts498 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 14.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  552. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOHamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −2.9 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  553. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts238 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 47.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-5 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  554. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.78 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.13 on $5.25

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 18.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  555. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOManchester United to WinWins if: Leeds wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,432 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1204.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  556. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.94 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.34 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts725 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  557. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,681 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 336.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-6 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  558. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Torino wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.29 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts950 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 35.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  559. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $5.22

    Below break-even (18% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-2 · NO
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  560. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESElche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Elche wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.48 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.87 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,399 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 22.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC2 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  561. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOUnion Berlin to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Union Berlin wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10,738 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2147.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  562. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NONice to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts954 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 190.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC2 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  563. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA1 · NO
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  564. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESSunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sunderland wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.05 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN2 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  565. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts743 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 148.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-1 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  566. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 39.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $5.16
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $5.16

    Below break-even (40% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,415 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 108.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-3 · NO
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  567. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.0 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts717 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 143.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-5 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  568. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,226 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 201.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-5 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  569. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Villarreal or Napoli wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,007 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 334.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  570. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.15 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts676 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 135.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-2 · YES
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  571. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 239.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-5 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  572. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.04 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.56 on $5.31

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts508 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 6.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-6 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  573. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.63 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.20 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts928 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 13.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  574. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Torino scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 38% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.29 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  575. Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Paris FC or Rennes wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.41

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts551 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 91.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  576. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESUnion Berlin to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Union Berlin wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.71 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts394 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 7.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  577. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: Hamburger SV wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 33.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  578. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESCelta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Celta Vigo wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.56 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts712 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC3 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  579. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOUdinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,475 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 295.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  580. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESManchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester City wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,551 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 119.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI3 · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  581. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOSassuolo to WinWins if: Frosinone wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,030 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 718.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  582. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.63 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,580 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 79.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-TIE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  583. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.1 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.91

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 50.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-6 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  584. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLe Havre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Le Havre wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.83 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts974 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 37.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC2 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  585. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 8.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-2 · NO
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  586. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.60 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,777 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 235.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-1 · NO
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  587. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.44 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts711 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 15.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-5 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  588. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts389 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 77.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-1 · YES
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  589. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.00 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,507 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 48.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-6 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  590. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts644 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 107.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-5 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  591. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOCelta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Alaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,533 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 255.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC2 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  592. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSlovan Bratislava to WinWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.77

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts589 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.5 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 117.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-SLO · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 11¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  593. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.05 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.68 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts520 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  594. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $5.01

    Below break-even (42% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,738 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 144.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-3 · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  595. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts390 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 78.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV3 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  596. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino to WinWins if: Parma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.2 points
    conservative 61% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 98.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TOR · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  597. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.07 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.70 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts72 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  598. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Rennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.16 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts29 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  599. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.55 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.03 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 8.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  600. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.66 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,117 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 455.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  601. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts610 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 87.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-4 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  602. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOEverton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Chelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,341 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 268.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  603. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 301.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL2 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  604. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Betis to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Barcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Real Betis wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts450 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 90.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  605. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-2 · YES
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  606. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to WinWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.3 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts668 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 111.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  607. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Torino scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,525 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 505.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  608. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESIpswich to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Ipswich wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.86 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.37 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,130 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS2 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  609. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOGenoa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Genoa wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN2 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  610. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts681 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-2 · NO
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  611. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOLeeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,597 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 319.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE3 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  612. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESLorient to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lorient wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.78 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.41 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  613. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NORennes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Paris FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN2 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  614. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $5.13

    Below break-even (43% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,268 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 105.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-3 · NO
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  615. IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESClub Brugge KV to WinWins if: Club Brugge KV wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.82 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.87 on $5.27

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts188,790 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.1 points on 105 matches · price 24 min old · 3432.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Club Brugge KV to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  616. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 62.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-3 · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  617. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 96% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,805 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3361.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-1 · YES
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.97 · mid (side) 98.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  618. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2 · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  619. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOUdinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts723 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 120.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI2 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  620. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOAlaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Celta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA2 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  621. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAston Villa to WinWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.4 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,849 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 407.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  622. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.73 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,460 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 260.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  623. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLorient to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Monaco wins or the match is drawn, or Lorient wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 100.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  624. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.14 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.46 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 7.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  625. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOEintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: 1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 75.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE3 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  626. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.17 on $4.49

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts696 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 139.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-6 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  627. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.46 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.89 on $5.31

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts44 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 0.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  628. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,836 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 109.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  629. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts626 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 89.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-4 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  630. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.62 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.91 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,226 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 47.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  631. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 62.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $5.02

    Below break-even (63% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,204 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 275.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-3 · YES
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  632. Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.00 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.33 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,093 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.0 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 370.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-TIE · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  633. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESNottingham Forest to WinWins if: Nottingham Forest wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.50 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.23 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts511 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 14.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  634. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts620 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 124.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU3 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  635. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESEverton to WinWins if: Everton wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.5 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.39 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts37,648 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 2353.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  636. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESLecce to WinWins if: Lecce wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.75 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,397 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 209.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  637. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.64 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.21 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,111 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 34.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  638. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLyon to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Nice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL3 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  639. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Deportivo La Coruna or Levante wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.47

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts63 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 10.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  640. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts63 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV2 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  641. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.60 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.80 on $5.32

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,196 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 23.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-6 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  642. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-1 · YES
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  643. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLyon to WinWins if: Nice wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 44.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $4.92

    Below break-even (45% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts944 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 85.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-OL · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  644. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NONottingham Forest to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Arsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Nottingham Forest wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO2 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  645. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,050 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 210.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  646. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts830 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 138.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL2 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  647. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESSassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sassuolo wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.6 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.98 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS2 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  648. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts703 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 26.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-5 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  649. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts256 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 32.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-4 · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  650. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.18 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts437 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 87.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-1 · YES
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  651. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAston Villa to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.31 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.59 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,528 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 283.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  652. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESEspanyol to WinWins if: Espanyol wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.61 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,409 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 200.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  653. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,900 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 310.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-TIE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  654. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESManchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester United wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.79 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.00 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,219 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 45.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN2 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  655. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Atletico Madrid or Manchester United wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,299 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 549.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  656. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-1 · YES
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  657. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.42 on $5.25

    Below break-even (14% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,577 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.0 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 146.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-TIE · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  658. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOFrosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,554 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 310.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  659. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESStade Brestois 29 to WinWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,072 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 51.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-STB · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  660. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESUnion Berlin to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Union Berlin wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.7 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.94 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.74 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  661. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NORacing Santander to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins or the match is drawn, or Racing Santander wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,257 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 251.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN2 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  662. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLille to WinWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 48.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.38 on $4.88

    Below break-even (49% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts595 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 59.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  663. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.94 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.34 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,537 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 40.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-6 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  664. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts924 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 153.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-2 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  665. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.70

    Below break-even (59% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,110 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 138.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-3 · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  666. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOFiorentina to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Como wins or the match is drawn, or Fiorentina wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,247 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 249.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO2 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  667. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Sociedad to WinWins if: Malaga wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.70

    Below break-even (59% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,185 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 148.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO · NO
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  668. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino to WinWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.94

    Below break-even (62% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts338 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 42.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  669. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; not in Build: competition rule.

    FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOComo to WinWins if: Feyenoord wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.38 on $5.08

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±6.5 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-COM · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  670. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,210 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 52.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-5 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  671. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts364 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 72.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-2 · YES
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  672. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.14 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.73 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,144 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 16.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  673. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 1% vs break-even 5.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.04 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.85 on $5.34

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts37,836 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 378.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  674. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOMalaga to WinWins if: Real Sociedad wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,235 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 205.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  675. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Juventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.8 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ2 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  676. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOElche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Villarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts45 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC2 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  677. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOSlavia Praha to WinWins if: Sabah FA wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.35 on $5.02

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts29,663 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.4 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 3295.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slavia Praha to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SLA · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  678. GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.14 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.46 on $5.25

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts126,530 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 3329.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-TIE · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  679. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.69 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts432 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 24.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-TIE · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  680. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOArsenal to WinWins if: Lille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.64 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,916 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.7 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 300.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS · NO
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  681. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.19 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,528 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 305.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-6 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  682. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.92 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.41 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts754 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-1 · NO
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  683. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts704 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 117.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-2 · YES
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  684. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NORB Leipzig to WinWins if: Bayern München wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts430 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 86.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  685. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lille wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.94 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.29 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,018 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 30.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL3 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  686. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Torino or Udinese wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $5.01

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,145 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 3449.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TIE · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  687. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.29 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.90 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts717 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 31.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-2 · NO
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  688. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Manchester City or Paris Saint Germain wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,443 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 2407.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-TIE · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  689. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.75 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,374 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 651.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-TIE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  690. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nice wins or the match is drawn, or Lyon wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $4.87

    Below break-even (70% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL2 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  691. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −3.9 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-TIE · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  692. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.88 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.28 on $5.31

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,553 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 18.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  693. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 71.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2 · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  694. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Sabah FA or Slavia Praha wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 73.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  695. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESVenezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    1%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 0% vs break-even 4.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$4.05 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.97 on $5.34

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.1 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 1%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN3 · YES
    Model
    1% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  696. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.73 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.19 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,489 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 63.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-1 · NO
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  697. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.52 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts390 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 30.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV2 · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 34.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  698. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.68 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.00 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 7.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF2 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  699. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NONewcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Aston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.20 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,745 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 349.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW3 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  700. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts900 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 128.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-4 · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  701. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,866 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 136.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  702. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Real Betis or FC Porto wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts646 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 107.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  703. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.0 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,418 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1403.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  704. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,045 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 549.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-3 · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  705. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts669 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 95.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-3 · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  706. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOCelta Vigo to WinWins if: Alaves wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,038 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 115.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  707. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOValencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Athletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 99.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.96

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,687 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 337.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  708. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESRB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.52 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.92 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,352 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL2 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  709. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 94% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts393 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 78.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  710. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.07 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts179 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 6.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-TIE · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  711. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLille to WinWins if: Lille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,696 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 188.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  712. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOLecce to WinWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,701 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 283.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  713. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts702 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 140.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-2 · YES
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  714. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLyon to WinWins if: Lyon wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 12.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-OL · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  715. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.1 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.90 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.29 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 16.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  716. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Ipswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,940 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 705.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI3 · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  717. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-2 · YES
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  718. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.82

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts661 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 132.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-6 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  719. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: AS Roma or Slovan Bratislava wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.21 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts747 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 149.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-TIE · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.4 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 14¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)

  720. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESNewcastle to WinWins if: Newcastle wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.42 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,541 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 454.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  721. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESAlaves to WinWins if: Alaves wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.80 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,528 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 238.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  722. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.10 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts503 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-5 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  723. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.61 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.91 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,245 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 27.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  724. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.2 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,078 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 67.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-2 · NO
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  725. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,560 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 240.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-TIE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  726. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.86 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,333 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 166.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  727. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESLask Linz to WinWins if: Lask Linz wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.55 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.14 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts47,105 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 942.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lask Linz to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-ASK · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)

  728. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,897 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 222.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-3 · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  729. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts919 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 153.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-2 · YES
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  730. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Ipswich wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,425 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 220.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI2 · NO
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  731. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.92 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.37 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts831 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-1 · NO
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  732. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESNottingham Forest to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.61 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.68 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts907 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO2 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  733. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.3 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,669 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 151.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-4 · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  734. ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.89 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.52 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts84,837 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 2423.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-TIE · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  735. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,434 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1486.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  736. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts708 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 54.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-4 · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  737. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBrentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Brentford wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.90 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.41 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,310 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 23.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  738. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOStrasbourg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Strasbourg wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts818 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 163.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  739. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.57 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.11 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts451 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  740. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLe Havre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Auxerre wins or the match is drawn, or Le Havre wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,003 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1400.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  741. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YES1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.29 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.54 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts938 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  742. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.38 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,906 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 295.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  743. FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Frosinone or Sassuolo wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.53

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts940 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 156.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  744. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.61 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.15 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts873 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-1 · NO
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  745. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.22 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  746. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Schalke 04 to WinWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.22 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $4.98

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,762 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 197.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  747. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NONice to WinWins if: Lyon wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.4 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,822 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 303.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  748. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.39 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.83 on $5.23

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,225 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 29.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-5 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  749. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Torino scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,177 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 168.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  750. Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESEintracht Frankfurt to WinWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $5.18

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,856 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 785.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  751. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Bodo/Glimt or Borussia Dortmund wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,268 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1878.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  752. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 75.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-2 · YES
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  753. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts757 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 151.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  754. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.5 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts740 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 123.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-5 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  755. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.50 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts609 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 55.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-3 · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  756. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESFiorentina to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Fiorentina wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.65 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.25 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  757. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,672 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 167.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-3 · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  758. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.90 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.43 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,129 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 36.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  759. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lens or Sporting CP wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25,706 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 4284.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  760. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 203.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-2 · YES
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  761. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Manchester City or Ipswich wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17,835 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.0 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 3566.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-TIE · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  762. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.6 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.44 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.85 on $5.31

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts527 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 6.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  763. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.7 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.23 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts732 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 146.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-1 · YES
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  764. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.7 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.53 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.61 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts926 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 71.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-4 · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  765. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.7 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts736 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 147.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  766. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.7 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.09 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-2 · NO
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  767. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to WinWins if: Levante wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.7 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  768. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 32% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.67 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,224 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 87.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2 · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 34.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  769. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NONewcastle to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 22.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW · NO
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  770. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.47 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts715 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 23.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-5 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  771. MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Monza or Cagliari wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $5.08

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts409 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 58.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-TIE · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  772. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.25 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.15 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts700 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 15.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-6 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  773. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.96 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 16.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  774. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESCelta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Celta Vigo wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.96 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts707 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 35.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC2 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  775. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.91 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts685 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 36.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  776. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.50 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-4 · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  777. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.58

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts402 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 80.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-6 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  778. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.58 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.98 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,289 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 36.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  779. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: RB Leipzig or PSV Eindhoven wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,569 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 428.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-TIE · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  780. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Coventry or Newcastle wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.8 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts133,683 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 22280.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  781. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESUdinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,225 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 68.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI2 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  782. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOEspanyol to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Espanyol wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.24 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,222 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 244.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP2 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  783. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 106.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  784. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.98 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,678 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-2 · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  785. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.18 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.01 on $5.23

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,101 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 26.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-6 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  786. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESManchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester City wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts754 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 94.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI2 · YES
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  787. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Sociedad to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Sociedad wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.86 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.03 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,464 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 69.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO2 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  788. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOElche to WinWins if: Villarreal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 224.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-ELC · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  789. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOLask Linz to WinWins if: Liverpool wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −4.9 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23,967 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 4793.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lask Linz to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-ASK · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)

  790. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLyon to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lyon wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 32% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.69 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,114 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 79.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-OL2 · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  791. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts520 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 86.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-4 · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  792. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 38% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.13

    Below break-even (43% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-4 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  793. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Paderborn 07 to WinWins if: Werder Bremen wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,168 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 194.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  794. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,479 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 440.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-TIE · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  795. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESAuxerre to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Auxerre wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.32 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.55 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts940 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 30.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX2 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  796. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,362 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 97.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-TIE · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  797. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.70 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.45 on $5.22

    Below break-even (18% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,157 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 39.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-2 · NO
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  798. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.21 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.55 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  799. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.76 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,141 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 76.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-4 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  800. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Newcastle or Aston Villa wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts549 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 91.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  801. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn, or FC Schalke 04 wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.0 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.25 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts661 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 132.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH2 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  802. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: AS Roma or Real Madrid wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,043 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 340.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  803. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NONewcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Aston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts792 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 131.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-NEW2 · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  804. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.15 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.54 on $5.32

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts510 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 10.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  805. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 61% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.60

    Below break-even (66% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,177 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 310.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-4 · NO
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  806. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOLeeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,236 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 247.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE2 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  807. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.23 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.30 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,214 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 27.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-6 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  808. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lask Linz or Liverpool wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts606 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.2 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 121.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-TIE · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  809. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts715 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 119.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-2 · YES
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  810. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOInter to WinWins if: Club Brugge KV wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.08 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,109 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.8 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 1148.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-INT · NO
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  811. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.1 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,115 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 139.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18OLNIC-3 · YES
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  812. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOBologna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Inter wins or the match is drawn, or Bologna wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC2 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  813. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.47 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.71 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 94.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  814. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.98 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,429 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 285.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  815. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Rennes wins or the match is drawn, or Paris FC wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts655 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 109.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-PAR2 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  816. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.93 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,473 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 73.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-4 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  817. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESVfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.65 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.78 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,242 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 82.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  818. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,138 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 126.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-3 · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  819. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.2 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,093 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 182.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  820. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.26 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 137.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-1 · YES
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  821. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: No goals at all
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.23 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.75 on $5.30

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,378 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-1 · NO
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  822. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: SV Elversberg or FC Augsburg wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.32 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,448 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 241.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  823. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts648 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 58.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18PARREN-3 · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  824. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.90 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 235.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-TIE · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  825. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Villarreal or Elche wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.32 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts979 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 163.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-TIE · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  826. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.86 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.18 on $5.23

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts775 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 18.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-5 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  827. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESRacing Santander to WinWins if: Racing Santander wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.3 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.50 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.06 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts109 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 5.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  828. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODeportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn, or Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts34 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP3 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  829. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.93 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.96 on $5.27

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 9.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  830. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.93 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.96 on $5.27

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,191 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 21.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-6 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  831. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESPSV Eindhoven to WinWins if: PSV Eindhoven wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.08 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31,268 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.2 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 1563.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  832. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Bayern München or RB Leipzig wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts796 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.0 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 159.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-TIE · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  833. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Torino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2826.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  834. ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESParma to WinWins if: Parma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.86 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,099 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 193.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Parma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-PAR · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  835. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.54 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.70 on $5.32

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,621 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 32.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-6 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  836. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESMalaga to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Malaga wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.38 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.07 on $5.25

    Below break-even (14% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF2 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  837. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Bournemouth or Sunderland wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.4 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,402 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 567.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  838. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOFC Porto to WinWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts478 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.3 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 79.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Porto to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-FCP · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  839. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.27 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,777 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1155.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-2 · YES
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  840. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESEstac Troyes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Estac Troyes wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 1% vs break-even 6.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.90 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.55 on $5.31

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  841. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.40 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.47 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,201 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 26.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-6 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  842. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,309 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 538.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-3 · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  843. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Torino scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.29 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,452 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1408.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR1 · YES
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  844. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESSunderland to WinWins if: Sunderland wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,060 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 447.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  845. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESVenezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.39 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.43 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,190 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 19.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN2 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  846. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.28 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25,045 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 5008.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-6 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  847. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.5 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.05 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.94 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,183 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 119.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-2 · NO
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  848. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.74 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,142 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 45.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-2 · NO
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  849. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 939.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3 · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  850. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESUnion Berlin to WinWins if: Union Berlin wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.18 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.28

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,625 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 65.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  851. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.33 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts415 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 69.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  852. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 171.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3 · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  853. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,183 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 197.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV1 · YES
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  854. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESManchester United to WinWins if: Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.49 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.73 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts60,190 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 4630.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  855. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 9.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.92 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.07 on $5.27

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts700 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  856. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.60

    Below break-even (66% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts262 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 37.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-3 · YES
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  857. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESSassuolo to WinWins if: Sassuolo wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 32% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.73 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,774 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 213.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  858. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOAlaves to WinWins if: Celta Vigo wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,051 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 175.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  859. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.38 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.49 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts501 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 8.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-6 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  860. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.6 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.76 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.41 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW1 · NO
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  861. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,216 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 151.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-3 · YES
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  862. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,642 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 813.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  863. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBodo/Glimt to WinWins if: Bodo/Glimt wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.91 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,646 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.8 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 1540.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 29%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bodo/Glimt to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BOG · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  864. FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESFeyenoord to WinWins if: Feyenoord wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.97 on $5.00

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts770 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 62 matches · price 24 min old · 45.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Feyenoord to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-FEY · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.6 points on 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  865. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Brentford or Liverpool wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10,549 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1758.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  866. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NORennes to WinWins if: Paris FC wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts974 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 139.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-REN · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  867. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,581 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 316.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  868. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESHamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Hamburger SV wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.7 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.02 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.55 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 6¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  869. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Betis to WinWins if: Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 48.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $4.88

    Below break-even (49% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts47,682 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 4768.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-RBB · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  870. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESVillarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Villarreal wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.92 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.15 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts486 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 24.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL3 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  871. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESManchester City to WinWins if: Manchester City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.35 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts18,546 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 3091.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI · YES
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  872. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.88 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,202 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 60.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-5 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  873. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.59 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,561 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 364.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  874. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lorient or Monaco wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.35 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts990 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 165.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  875. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts374 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 74.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-2 · YES
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  876. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Inter or Club Brugge KV wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.29 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts20,136 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.2 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 4027.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-TIE · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  877. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.01 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.46 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,218 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 48.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-5 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  878. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.17 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts854 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 42.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-TIE · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  879. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESComo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Como wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.8 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.89 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,191 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 66.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM2 · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  880. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESToulouse to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Toulouse wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.35 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,019 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 44.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC2 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  881. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: SC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.87

    Below break-even (70% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts759 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 108.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

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    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV2 · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 66.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  882. LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESLeeds to WinWins if: Leeds wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 39.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $5.16
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $5.16

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,703 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1900.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 37.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  883. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.35 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts627 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 104.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU2 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  884. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.00 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.20 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts504 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 7.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  885. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.40 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.72 on $5.22

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,329 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 45.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-6 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  886. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt or 1. FC Köln wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts789 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 131.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-TIE · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  887. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.13 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,485 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 499.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17NEWAVL-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  888. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts506 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-4 · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  889. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Real Madrid or Sevilla wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −5.9 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts567 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.1 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 113.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-TIE · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  890. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESCelta Vigo to WinWins if: Celta Vigo wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,224 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 422.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  891. Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.85 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts52,134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 1681.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-TIE · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  892. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.87 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.27 on $5.25

    Below break-even (14% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 13.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-5 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  893. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESAuxerre to WinWins if: Auxerre wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.59 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.84 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 285.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  894. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.53 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts706 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 70.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-3 · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  895. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Freiburg to WinWins if: SC Freiburg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.99 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.26 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 20.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  896. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.30 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts414 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 82.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-5 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  897. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lille wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.0 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.60 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.90 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,024 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 68.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL2 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  898. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.1 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.67 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.76 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 8.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-6 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  899. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOFrosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.1 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 221.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO2 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  900. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOEverton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Chelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.1 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,181 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2436.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE2 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  901. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.1 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.80 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.14 on $5.20

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,148 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 32.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-6 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  902. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.1 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.83 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.92 on $5.19

    Below break-even (35% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,138 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 75.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-4 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  903. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.17 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 26.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-4 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  904. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 38% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,734 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 157.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17NEWAVL-3 · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  905. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBayer Leverkusen to WinWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 54% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.50 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,328 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 1041.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 56.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  906. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.93 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,003 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 66.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI1 · NO
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  907. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,840 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 537.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  908. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOEintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts676 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 112.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE2 · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  909. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Sociedad to WinWins if: Real Sociedad wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.2 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.69 on $5.15

    Below break-even (47% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts609 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 55.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO · YES
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  910. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.50 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts701 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 77.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18ACMATA-3 · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  911. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.44

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,061 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 412.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-6 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  912. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.98 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.38 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,825 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 83.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-5 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  913. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.86 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.20 on $5.20

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,140 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 32.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-6 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  914. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.29 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.31 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,635 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1727.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  915. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YES1. FC Köln to WinWins if: 1. FC Köln wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.83 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.07 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts388 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 22.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  916. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.38 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,693 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 282.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-5 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  917. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.04 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.33 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,127 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 101.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-5 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  918. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 1% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.01 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.48 on $5.30

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,876 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 26.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  919. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESFiorentina to WinWins if: Fiorentina wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.14 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,906 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 217.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  920. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts103 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 11.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2 · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  921. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.86 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.95 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts912 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 60.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-4 · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  922. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.51 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,178 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 147.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-3 · YES
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  923. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.3 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.14 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts19,335 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1074.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  924. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESEstac Troyes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Estac Troyes wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.32 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.18 on $5.32

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST2 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  925. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Parma or Torino wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts424 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 60.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TIE · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  926. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.15 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,948 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 163.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  927. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.59 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,116 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 694.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-2 · NO
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  928. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.61 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,857 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 491.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-TIE · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  929. FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.41 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts815 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 37.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  930. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Leeds or Manchester United wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17,662 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 2943.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  931. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLille to WinWins if: Arsenal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.32 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts19,619 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.5 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 3923.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  932. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.4 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 83.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  933. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESJuventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Juventus wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.80 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.13 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 15.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  934. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to WinWins if: Napoli wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts27,981 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 1748.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  935. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.32 on $4.49

    Below break-even (90% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts684 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 136.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-2 · YES
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  936. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESChelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Chelsea wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.19 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts680 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 32.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC2 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  937. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.30 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.76 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,793 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 103.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  938. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESMalaga to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Malaga wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.53 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.04 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  939. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 10.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.92 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.26 on $5.32

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts750 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 15.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-6 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  940. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Feyenoord or Como wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.5 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,936 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 2656.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  941. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESAngers to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Angers wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.6 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.59 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.09 on $5.28

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts755 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  942. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBrentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Brentford wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.6 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.19 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.66 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,312 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 52.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE2 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  943. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts310 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-3 · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  944. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESVillarreal to WinWins if: Villarreal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.67 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31,484 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 3148.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  945. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts18,739 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3123.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  946. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 49% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.54 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts724 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 80.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17ESPATM-3 · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  947. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESUdinese to WinWins if: Udinese wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,573 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 174.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  948. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.02 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.41 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 68.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-5 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  949. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 2% vs break-even 8.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.84 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.16 on $5.28

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,220 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 19.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-6 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  950. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $5.01

    Below break-even (42% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,599 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 299.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-4 · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  951. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.35 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts80,936 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.2 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 2312.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-TIE · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 13.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  952. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOHamburger SV to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts630 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 105.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  953. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOMarseille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Angers wins or the match is drawn, or Marseille wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 65.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM2 · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  954. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOClub Brugge KV to WinWins if: Inter wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.7 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,840 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.1 points on 105 matches · price 24 min old · 368.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Club Brugge KV to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  955. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts82 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 4.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  956. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lyon or Nice wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,187 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 197.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18OLNIC-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  957. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.78 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.95 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA3 · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  958. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,664 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1132.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-2 · YES
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  959. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NONapoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $4.94

    Below break-even (71% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,082 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 583.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP2 · NO
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  960. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.64 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,791 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 386.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-3 · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  961. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino to WinWins if: Torino wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.82 on $5.01

    Below break-even (42% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,176 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 264.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TOR · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  962. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts641 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 91.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-3 · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  963. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Angers or Marseille wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.8 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,158 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 359.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  964. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 5% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.09 on $5.26

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts39 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±2.8 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 0.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-TIE · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 5¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  965. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.82

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts32,662 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 6532.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  966. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOCrystal Palace to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Brighton wins or the match is drawn, or Crystal Palace wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.34 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,469 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 293.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  967. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Betis to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Barcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Real Betis wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.35 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,293 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 258.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  968. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.48 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.80 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,191 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 45.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  969. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis FC to WinWins if: Rennes wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −6.9 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.94

    Below break-even (62% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts999 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 124.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-PAR · NO
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  970. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.0 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.32 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.64 on $5.25

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,344 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 35.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-6 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  971. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESHamburger SV to WinWins if: Hamburger SV wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.0 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,422 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 171.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  972. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.0 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.89 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.12 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts750 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 46.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-5 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  973. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESVillarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Villarreal wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.0 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.78 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,419 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 219.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL2 · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  974. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.42 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,225 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 204.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-2 · YES
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  975. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Hamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.42 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,105 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 184.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  976. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESVillarreal to WinWins if: Villarreal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 61% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 47.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-VIL · YES
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 4.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  977. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOLiverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Brentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,412 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1882.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC2 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  978. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Celta Vigo or Alaves wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts739 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 123.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-TIE · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  979. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Manchester United wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $5.18

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,453 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.9 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 745.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM · NO
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  980. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLe Havre to WinWins if: Auxerre wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.1 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.50 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts481 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 68.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-HAC · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  981. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA2 · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  982. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts868 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 173.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-2 · YES
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  983. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESMonaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Monaco wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.20 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts916 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 48.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM2 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  984. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Everton or Chelsea wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,274 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 379.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-TIE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  985. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Le Havre or Auxerre wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts480 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 80.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18HACAUX-TIE · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  986. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,267 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 853.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-2 · YES
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  987. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.2 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.87

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 20.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-6 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  988. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLe Mans to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Toulouse wins or the match is drawn, or Le Mans wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.36 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts857 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 171.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  989. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.80 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.11 on $5.22

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 38.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  990. VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOVillarreal to WinWins if: Elche wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $5.13

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts991 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 70.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-VIL · NO
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 4.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  991. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESComo to WinWins if: Como wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.73 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,576 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 257.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  992. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts367 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 73.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-3 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  993. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOGetafe to WinWins if: Rayo Vallecano wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.3 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.51 on $4.94

    Below break-even (71% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,074 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 153.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Getafe to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-GET · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  994. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.49 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.66 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,757 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 417.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17MCIIPS-4 · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  995. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESAngers to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Angers wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.96 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.58 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts504 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG2 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  996. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.84 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.44 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts953 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 28.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-5 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  997. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.14 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.81 on $5.25

    Below break-even (14% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,827 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 390.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  998. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Venezia or Napoli wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,704 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 450.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  999. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLorient to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Monaco wins or the match is drawn, or Lorient wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts851 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 170.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL2 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1000. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Slovan Bratislava or VfB Stuttgart wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts56 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-TIE · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1001. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts658 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 131.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-2 · YES
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1002. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Udinese or Lecce wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts578 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 96.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-TIE · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1003. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOLeeds to WinWins if: Manchester United wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.52 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,210 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 172.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1004. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOUnion Berlin to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,194 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 365.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-UNI · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1005. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,737 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 289.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-2 · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1006. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.72 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.12 on $5.19

    Below break-even (35% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,349 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 356.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-TIE · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1007. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 91% vs break-even 98.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.91

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG3 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1008. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSV Elversberg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn, or SV Elversberg wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.37 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts825 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 165.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE3 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1009. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: AC Milan or Atalanta wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.4 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 16.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-TIE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  1010. ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLille to WinWins if: Lille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 0% vs break-even 7.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$5.30 on $5.30

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,534 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.5 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 162.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1011. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.27 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.95 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts434 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 16.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-2 · NO
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1012. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 14.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.10 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.63 on $5.20

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts510 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 14.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-5 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1013. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAC Milan to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: AC Milan wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    38 contracts for $4.94 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 13.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.49 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.85 on $5.25

    Below break-even (14% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,201 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 31.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 12%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 38 contracts at 13¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1014. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESGetafe to WinWins if: Getafe wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,785 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 341.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Getafe to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-GET · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1015. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONapoli to WinWins if: Villarreal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,687 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 1812.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-NAP · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1016. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.5 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.85 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.28 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,388 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 317.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1017. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESManchester City to WinWins if: Manchester City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±5.0 points on 58 matches · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-MCI · YES
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.0 points on 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 4¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1018. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $4.60

    Below break-even (66% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,082 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2297.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-3 · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1019. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Bayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts484 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 80.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-TIE · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1020. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESLiverpool to WinWins if: Liverpool wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts53,120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.8 points on 38 matches · price 24 min old · 8853.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-LFC · YES
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 12.6 points on 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1021. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBournemouth to WinWins if: Sunderland wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,014 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 446.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1022. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOFiorentina to WinWins if: Como wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,058 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 343.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-FIO · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1023. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lille or Stade Brestois 29 wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts869 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 144.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1024. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.87 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.29 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1025. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.6 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.42 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,257 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 876.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA3 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1026. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.07 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.38 on $5.26

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts390 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 12.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-6 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1027. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.94 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.38 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13,264 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 736.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1028. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.81 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.23 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,592 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 599.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TIE · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1029. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.54 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts44,430 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.2 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 1346.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-TIE · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1030. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOValencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Athletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.38 on $4.63

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF2 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1031. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.97 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.23 on $5.22

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts673 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 23.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 15%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-6 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 15.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1032. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 76% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts891 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 148.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-2 · YES
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  1033. Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.7 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.70 on $5.11

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,429 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 65.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1034. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.51 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.02 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,686 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 64.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1035. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.00 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.09 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 80.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-4 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1036. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.44 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.57 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts60 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1037. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,294 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 258.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-2 · YES
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1038. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODeportivo La Coruna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn, or Deportivo La Coruna wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts45 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 7.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP2 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1039. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.83 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.25 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 250.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-TIE · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1040. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOPSV Eindhoven to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10,506 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.2 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 1751.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1041. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLazio to WinWins if: Juventus wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.39 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,422 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 684.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1042. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOFrosinone to WinWins if: Sassuolo wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,543 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 363.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1043. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Bodo/Glimt wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $4.93

    Below break-even (55% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,372 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.5 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 930.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BVB · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1044. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Fiorentina or Como wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.8 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,011 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 335.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18FIOCOM-TIE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1045. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.81 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts30,420 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1322.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-TIE · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  1046. Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to WinWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.22 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.65 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,920 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 91.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA · NO
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1047. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.02 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.10 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,476 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 176.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-4 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1048. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.72 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $5.18

    Below break-even (52% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,129 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 112.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-4 · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1049. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.47 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-2 · YES
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1050. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOEintracht Frankfurt to WinWins if: 1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 46% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,451 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 272.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1051. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.95 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.03 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,207 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 92.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-4 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1052. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.67 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.98 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,413 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 56.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-5 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1053. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,226 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 122.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-3 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1054. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.58 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.63 on $4.70

    Below break-even (59% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,561 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 195.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-3 · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1055. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts431 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 71.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1056. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODeportivo La Coruna to WinWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.47 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.63 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts335 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 41.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT16DEPLEV-DEP · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1057. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Espanyol or Atletico Madrid wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −7.9 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,767 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1127.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-TIE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1058. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.0 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.80 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,419 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1401.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-4 · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1059. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia to WinWins if: Venezia wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.0 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.94 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.47 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts66,955 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2159.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1060. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.0 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $4.87

    Below break-even (70% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-4 · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1061. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.0 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,859 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 643.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA · YES
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1062. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.38 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.40 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts395 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 78.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-1 · YES
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1063. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-3 · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1064. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBayern München to WinWins if: Bayern München wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.33 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.48 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,789 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 798.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1065. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.93 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts395 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 30.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB2 · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1066. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBayer Leverkusen to WinWins if: SC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.65 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.81 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,182 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 118.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 44.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1067. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.17 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.63 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts59,127 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 2956.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1068. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.1 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-3 · YES
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 65.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1069. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESFC Porto to WinWins if: FC Porto wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,219 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.3 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 836.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Porto to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-FCP · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1070. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 157.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-2 · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1071. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NONapoli to WinWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 38% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.75 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.90 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,208 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 200.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP · NO
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1072. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.97 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18PARREN-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1073. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to WinWins if: Tottenham wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,815 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1163.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-COV · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1074. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.63 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.81 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M052 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1075. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOGenoa to WinWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 83% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.41 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,252 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 250.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1076. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese to WinWins if: Torino wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.2 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13,306 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2217.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1077. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.3 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.50 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts414 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 69.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-4 · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1078. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESAtletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.3 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.19 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.33 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,823 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 176.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM2 · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1079. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Manchester City or AEK Athens FC wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.4 points
    conservative 86% vs break-even 94.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.42 on $4.72

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 20.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-TIE · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 5¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1080. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.4 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.95 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.26 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-5 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1081. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach or 1899 Hoffenheim wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.4 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.51 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts448 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 74.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1082. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.5 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.40 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.42 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts630 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 125.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-2 · YES
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1083. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.5 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $4.94

    Below break-even (62% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts734 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 91.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1084. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.5 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.03 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.45 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,278 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 192.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1085. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.5 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $4.77

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts883 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 176.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-6 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1086. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.5 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-5 · YES
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1087. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.6 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.03 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.11 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-4 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1088. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.80 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts758 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 36.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-TIE · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1089. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Arsenal or Lille wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.6 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.43 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts20,351 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 4070.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-TIE · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1090. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.7 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.73 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,107 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 105.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1091. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Bologna or Inter wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.7 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.52 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,999 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 333.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1092. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.7 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.30 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.39 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts945 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 59.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-4 · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1093. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.7 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.99 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.40 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26,297 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1643.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1094. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.65 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,123 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 140.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-3 · YES
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1095. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    7 contracts for $4.69 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 68.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $4.80
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $4.80

    Below break-even (69% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts400 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 57.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 66%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-3 · YES
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 67¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  1096. Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: Ipswich wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$0.00 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.03 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,599 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 286.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17MCIIPS-MCI · NO
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1097. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOLiverpool to WinWins if: Brentford wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts563 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 80.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1098. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Brighton or Crystal Palace wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.53 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts630 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 105.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1099. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAtalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: AC Milan wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.42 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $4.68

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts42 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 8.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA2 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1100. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.8 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23,454 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 4690.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-5 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1101. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Galatasaray wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.9 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$2.23 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.86 on $5.10

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23,566 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±8.4 points on 32 matches · price 24 min old · 1122.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR · NO
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 11.0 points on 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (8.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1102. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Werder Bremen wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.9 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.44 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.75 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 27.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW3 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1103. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOHull City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Fulham wins or the match is drawn, or Hull City wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.9 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.42 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.44 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24,841 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 4968.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL2 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1104. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.9 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,776 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 347.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-3 · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1105. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −8.9 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts403 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 57.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2 · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1106. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESRayo Vallecano to WinWins if: Rayo Vallecano wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.0 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.78 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.17 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,725 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 363.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-RVC · YES
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1107. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Galatasaray or Barcelona wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.0 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.45 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,230 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.4 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 646.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-TIE · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1108. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.0 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.44 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.53 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,222 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 71.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-4 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1109. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.1 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.40 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.63 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,350 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 75.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-5 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1110. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Malaga or Real Sociedad wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.1 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts723 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 120.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-TIE · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1111. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.1 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.64 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts262 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 14.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-2 · NO
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1112. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.1 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.18 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.00 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts56,192 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 2554.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-TIE · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1113. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.1 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.54 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.64 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,697 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 94.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-4 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1114. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts934 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 155.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-2 · YES
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1115. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESRB Leipzig to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.31 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.83 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,499 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 75 matches · price 24 min old · 611.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.4 points on 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1116. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,876 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 312.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17UNIBVB-TIE · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1117. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NONottingham Forest to WinWins if: Arsenal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 87.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.46 on $4.39

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,197 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1439.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1118. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.55 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts19,922 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3320.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1119. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.2 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.67 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.12 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts510 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 22.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-5 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1120. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.3 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.20 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.50 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-5 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1121. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ParmavTorinoSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOParma to WinWins if: Torino wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.3 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts770 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 128.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Parma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19PARTOR-PAR · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 504, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1122. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.3 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.76 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts21,676 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1140.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1123. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.3 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.65 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts431 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 61.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-4 · NO
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1124. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.4 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.45 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.68 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,192 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 66.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-5 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1125. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: FC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.4 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,796 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 299.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-TIE · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1126. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bayern München wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.4 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 45.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.89 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.03 on $5.03

    Below break-even (46% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts364 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 33.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU3 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1127. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    25%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.4 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.78 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31,116 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1637.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 25%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-TIE · YES
    Model
    25% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1128. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Nottingham Forest or Arsenal wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.5 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,410 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1068.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-TIE · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1129. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.5 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.20 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.47 on $5.23

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts503 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-6 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.0 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1130. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.5 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.45 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.90 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts122,517 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 6125.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 25%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1131. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.15 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.91 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,596 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 79.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-TIE · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1132. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESMonaco to WinWins if: Monaco wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.95 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,596 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 159.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1133. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESChelsea to WinWins if: Chelsea wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.85 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.15

    Below break-even (47% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts21,946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1995.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1134. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino to WinWins if: Torino wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.15 on $5.13

    Below break-even (43% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts57,549 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 4795.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1135. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,221 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 152.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-3 · YES
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1136. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Valencia or Athletic Club wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $4.53

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,679 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1279.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-TIE · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1137. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,158 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 144.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-3 · YES
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1138. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bayern München wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.53 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.67 on $4.53

    Below break-even (65% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts368 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 52.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU2 · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1139. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.6 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.25 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,413 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 108.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-4 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1140. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESToulouse to WinWins if: Toulouse wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.7 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.94 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $5.13

    Below break-even (43% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,177 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.5 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 98.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1141. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.7 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts722 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 144.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-5 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1142. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOEspanyol to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.7 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,139 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 189.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 79%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ESP · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1143. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.00 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.07 on $5.15

    Below break-even (47% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,140 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 103.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-4 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1144. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.25 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.47 on $5.19

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,115 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 74.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-6 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1145. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.59 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,676 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1112.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-2 · YES
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1146. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOsasuna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Racing Santander wins or the match is drawn, or Osasuna wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 285.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA3 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1147. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.59 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts805 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 134.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-4 · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1148. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOViking to WinWins if: Bayern München wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.8 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 97.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.49 on $4.87

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts49,280 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 9856.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Viking to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)

  1149. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.9 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.59 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts701 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 116.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-2 · YES
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1150. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.9 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.83 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts937 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 104.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-3 · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1151. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.9 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts74,323 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.5 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 7432.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BVB · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1152. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −9.9 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.38 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.88 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts414 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 21.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-2 · NO
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1153. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBrighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Brighton wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    25 contracts for $5.00 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.0 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 21.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.23 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.49 on $5.28

    Below break-even (21% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts508 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI3 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 25 contracts at 20¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1154. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.0 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-3 · YES
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1155. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.0 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-2 · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1156. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.0 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.39 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.61 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 70.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1157. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.0 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 42.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.90 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.21 on $5.13

    Below break-even (43% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts913 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 76.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-3 · NO
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1158. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Viking or Bayern München wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.1 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 95.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.51 on $4.77

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts33,426 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.9 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 6685.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-TIE · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1159. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Augsburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FC Augsburg wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    11%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.1 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.44 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.63 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts88 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 11%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA2 · YES
    Model
    11% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1160. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.1 points
    conservative 15% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.58 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.03 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts57,750 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 2887.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-TIE · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1161. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Bodo/GlimtvBorussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBodo/Glimt to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    69%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.1 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.61 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts18,964 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.8 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 3160.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 69%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bodo/Glimt to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BOG · NO
    Model
    69% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 455, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1162. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.2 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.94 on $5.20

    Below break-even (27% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts33,751 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1776.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1163. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.2 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 30.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.28 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.74 on $5.18

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts33,362 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1962.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 29%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-2 · NO
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1164. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.2 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.80 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.05 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,343 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 67.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-5 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1165. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Juventus or Lazio wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.3 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,669 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 444.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-TIE · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1166. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.3 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.98 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.20 on $5.23

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,345 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 32.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-6 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1167. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.3 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 19.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.35 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.77 on $5.14

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 78.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-5 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1168. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESMalaga to WinWins if: Malaga wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.3 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.60 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.64 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,049 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 65.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 29%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1169. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOEverton to WinWins if: Chelsea wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.3 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.53 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.72 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts11,166 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1595.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1170. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESJuventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Juventus wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.4 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.25 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.55 on $5.19

    Below break-even (35% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,198 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 79.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV2 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1171. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.4 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.97 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts398 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 39.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVEFCA-4 · YES
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1172. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.4 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.97 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $5.18

    Below break-even (52% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts374 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 37.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18BMGTSG-4 · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1173. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.4 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.97 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts944 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 94.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-3 · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1174. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Mönchengladbach to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Mönchengladbach wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.4 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.49 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.52 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,042 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1408.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG2 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1175. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.38 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.46 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-4 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1176. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOMarseille to WinWins if: Angers wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.84 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,148 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 268.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1177. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESInter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Inter wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.25 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.37 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 38.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1178. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Schalke 04 to WinWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.54 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.74 on $4.94

    Below break-even (71% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts804 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 114.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1179. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 7% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.82 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.05 on $5.22

    Below break-even (18% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,389 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 47.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-5 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1180. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFSV Mainz 05 to WinWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.5 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 44.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.99 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.16 on $4.92

    Below break-even (45% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,272 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 115.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-M05 · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1181. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.6 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.72 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.95 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts792 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 88.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-3 · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1182. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.6 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 61.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.80 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $4.94

    Below break-even (62% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,255 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 2031.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA2 · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1183. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.7 points
    conservative 61% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.70 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.75 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts392 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 56.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-3 · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1184. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.7 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 32.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.52 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.72 on $5.20

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,428 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 89.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 29%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-5 · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1185. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESArsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Arsenal wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.8 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.28 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.40 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,649 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 126.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS2 · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1186. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: AEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.8 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.28 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.38 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts39 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 58 matches · price 24 min old · 1.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-MCI · NO
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.0 points on 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 4¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1187. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.8 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 62.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.81 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $5.02

    Below break-even (63% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts911 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 113.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-3 · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1188. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOStrasbourg to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.9 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.54 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,510 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 302.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-RCS · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1189. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.9 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.54 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.65 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,717 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 286.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-4 · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1190. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.9 points
    conservative 30% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.24 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.31 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts912 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 76.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-4 · YES
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1191. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −10.9 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 51.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.03 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.09 on $5.18

    Below break-even (52% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,965 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 196.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-3 · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1192. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Levante does not score
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.0 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.58 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.86 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 58.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV1 · NO
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1193. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    18 contracts for $4.86 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.0 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 28.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.89 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.98 on $5.11

    Below break-even (28% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,378 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 76.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.25 on 18 contracts at 27¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1194. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESArsenal to WinWins if: Arsenal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.0 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.74 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13,400 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1675.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1195. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Fulham or Hull City wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.1 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.66 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts820 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 136.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-TIE · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1196. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOBologna to WinWins if: Inter wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.1 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.56 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,052 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 610.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1197. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    21%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.1 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.69 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.78 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,018 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 126.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 21%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-4 · YES
    Model
    21% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1198. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.2 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.64 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.67 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts888 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 148.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-2 · YES
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1199. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAthletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Athletic Club wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.10 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.25 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,582 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 79.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1200. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBayern München to WinWins if: Viking wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 0% vs break-even 11.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$3.49 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$5.07 on $5.26

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,726 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.4 points on 38 matches · price 24 min old · 60.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU · NO
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 12.6 points on 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1201. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.64 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.68 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts407 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 67.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-2 · YES
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1202. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.52 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.92 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,013 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 294.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-TIE · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1203. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.59 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.81 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,341 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 83.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-5 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1204. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.3 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.53 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts62 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 12.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV3 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1205. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.4 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.47 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.68

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,041 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 208.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-6 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 92.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1206. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLe Mans to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Toulouse wins or the match is drawn, or Le Mans wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.4 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.54 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.57 on $4.44

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN2 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1207. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOLorient to WinWins if: Monaco wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.5 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.69 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±2.7 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1208. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 5.5 GoalsWins if: 6 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.5 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.21 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.41 on $5.10

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,402 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 114.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-6 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.0 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1209. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOsasuna to WinWins if: Racing Santander wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.5 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.86 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.04 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts430 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 47.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1210. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla to WinWins if: Sevilla wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.6 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.21 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.62 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts199 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 14.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 35%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 34.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1211. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Strasbourg or Paris Saint Germain wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.6 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,053 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 210.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-TIE · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1212. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.6 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 44.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.21 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.28 on $4.92

    Below break-even (45% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts393 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 35.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-4 · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1213. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.6 points
    conservative 13% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.90 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.44 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts419 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 20.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-2 · NO
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1214. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.7 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.58 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts416 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 83.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1215. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESWerder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Werder Bremen wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.7 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 33.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.46 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.75 on $5.03

    Below break-even (34% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 56.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW2 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1216. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.7 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.70 on $4.70

    Below break-even (78% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-3 · YES
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1217. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOCrystal Palace to WinWins if: Brighton wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.8 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.63 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $5.04

    Below break-even (84% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,488 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 414.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1218. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Tottenham or Coventry wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.9 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.42 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.71 on $4.93

    Below break-even (82% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,332 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1055.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TIE · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1219. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBrentford to WinWins if: Brentford wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.9 points
    conservative 29% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.43 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts111 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 9.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE · YES
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1220. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −11.9 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.60 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts45,731 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 9146.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1221. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: AS Roma or Genoa wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.0 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.72 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts807 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 134.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-TIE · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1222. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GetafevRayo VallecanoLa Liga · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Getafe or Rayo Vallecano wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.0 points
    conservative 59% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.27 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.84 on $4.94

    Below break-even (71% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts43 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 6.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT19GETRVC-TIE · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 506, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1223. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAC Milan to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: AC Milan wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.1 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.72 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.05 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 29.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 27%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM2 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1224. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.1 points
    conservative 55% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.80 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,343 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 191.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-3 · YES
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1225. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESAS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: AS Roma wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.1 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.21 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.42 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 25.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM3 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1226. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAEK Athens FC to WinWins if: AEK Athens FC wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    31%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.01 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.58 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,953 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 1304.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 31%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-AEK · YES
    Model
    31% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1227. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESNottingham Forest to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    1%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 1% vs break-even 12.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$4.67 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.98 on $5.23

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 1%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO3 · YES
    Model
    1% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 11:35 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1228. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    21 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 12% vs break-even 24.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.08 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.56 on $5.10

    Below break-even (24% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts22,146 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.5 points on 125 matches · price 24 min old · 1054.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-TIE · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.5 points on 125 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 21 contracts at 23¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1229. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts392 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 39.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-4 · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1230. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    22 contracts for $4.84 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 11% vs break-even 23.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.46 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.69 on $5.11

    Below break-even (23% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,355 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 61.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 21%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-5 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 22 contracts at 22¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1231. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.2 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.87 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.10 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts27,848 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 3094.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-3 · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1232. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.3 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.88 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.11 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts456 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 50.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT16DEPLEV-3 · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1233. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    17 contracts for $4.76 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.3 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 29.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.86 on $5.00
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.10 on $5.00

    Below break-even (29% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts21,725 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.3 points on 357 matches · price 24 min old · 1277.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-TIE · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.0 points on 357 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 17 contracts at 28¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1234. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Real Betis or Barcelona wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.3 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.38 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.62 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,797 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1359.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-TIE · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1235. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    RB LeipzigvPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NORB Leipzig to WinWins if: PSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.3 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 47.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.11 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.23 on $4.78

    Below break-even (48% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts20,895 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 75 matches · price 24 min old · 2089.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 447, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.4 points on 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1236. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESFulham to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Fulham wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.4 points
    conservative 6% vs break-even 18.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.31 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.58 on $5.22

    Below break-even (18% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,311 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 45.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1237. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESFenerbahçe to WinWins if: Fenerbahçe wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.4 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 20.1%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.89 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.21 on $5.23

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,228 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.3 points on 105 matches · price 24 min old · 47.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 19%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.8 points on 105 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1238. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    IntervClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESInter to WinWins if: Inter wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.4 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.32 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.74 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts108,409 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.8 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 18068.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-INT · YES
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 446, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1239. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.4 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.06 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.12 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,429 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 158.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-4 · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1240. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOsasuna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Racing Santander wins or the match is drawn, or Osasuna wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.4 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.71 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.74 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,127 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 187.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-OSA2 · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1241. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOFeyenoord to WinWins if: Como wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.5 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.24 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.75 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,787 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 62 matches · price 24 min old · 797.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Feyenoord to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-FEY · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.6 points on 62 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1242. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.5 points
    conservative 10% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.29 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.87 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts899 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 39.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-2 · NO
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1243. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESJuventus to WinWins if: Juventus wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.5 points
    conservative 48% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.75 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.00 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,831 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 603.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 58%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV · YES
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1244. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.6 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.76 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.00 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,565 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 945.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1245. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.8 points
    conservative 23% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.71 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.79 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 86.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-4 · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1246. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSV Elversberg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: FC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn, or SV Elversberg wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.8 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts653 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 108.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1247. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.8 points
    conservative 64% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,975 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 1329.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV1 · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1248. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.9 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.77 on $4.81

    Below break-even (80% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts494 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 82.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-TIE · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 2.3 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1249. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry scores 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    13 contracts for $4.94 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.9 points
    conservative 27% vs break-even 39.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.60 on $5.16
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.68 on $5.16

    Below break-even (40% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,962 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 227.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT12COVNEW-COV2 · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 38¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1250. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.9 points
    conservative 66% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.74 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.78 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts634 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 105.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 77%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-2 · YES
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1251. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −12.9 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.11 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.17 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,989 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 221.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-3 · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1252. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    14 contracts for $4.90 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.0 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 36.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.74 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.82 on $5.13

    Below break-even (37% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,188 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 156.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 34%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-4 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.23 on 14 contracts at 35¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1253. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    64%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.0 points
    conservative 63% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.74 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.78 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,083 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 180.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 64%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-3 · YES
    Model
    64% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1254. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.1 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.99 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,001 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 250.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-3 · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1255. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    19 contracts for $4.94 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.1 points
    conservative 14% vs break-even 27.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    +$1.19 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.49 on $5.20

    Model above break-even; not after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25,029 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±8.3 points on 32 matches · price 24 min old · 1317.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 26%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-VFB · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 11.0 points on 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (8.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 19 contracts at 26¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 25.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1256. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESInter to WinWins if: Inter wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.2 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.88 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.05 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16,418 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2052.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-INT · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1257. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESArsenal to WinWins if: Arsenal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    6 contracts for $4.80 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.2 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 81.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.79 on $4.87

    Below break-even (81% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts123,158 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.7 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 20526.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS · YES
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 443, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 80¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1258. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESSporting CP to WinWins if: Sporting CP wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    13 contracts for $4.68 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.3 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 37.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $4.89
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.73 on $4.89

    Below break-even (38% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,526 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 117.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO · YES
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 13 contracts at 36¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1259. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle to WinWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.3 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.95 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.06 on $4.70

    Below break-even (59% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts28,228 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 3528.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1260. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESWerder Bremen to WinWins if: Werder Bremen wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.6 points
    conservative 43% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.75 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts596 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 66.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1261. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.6 points
    conservative 41% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.16 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $4.93

    Below break-even (55% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-4 · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1262. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESAngers to WinWins if: Angers wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.7 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.19 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,025 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 189.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1263. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESSlavia Praha to WinWins if: Slavia Praha wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.7 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 48.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.37 on $4.88

    Below break-even (49% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,887 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.4 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 188.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slavia Praha to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SLA · YES
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1264. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Sabah FAvSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOSabah FA to WinWins if: Slavia Praha wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.8 points
    conservative 61% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.46 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.83 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts424 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.9 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 70.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sabah FA to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13SBHSLA-SBH · NO
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 442, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1265. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.8 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 58.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.05 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.11 on $4.70

    Below break-even (59% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-4 · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1266. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Betis to WinWins if: Barcelona wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.9 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.69 on $4.30

    Below break-even (86% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts362 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 72.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 85%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1267. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.9 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.06 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.11 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts512 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 64.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17FULHUL-3 · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1268. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLe Mans to WinWins if: Toulouse wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.9 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 70.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.86 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.97 on $4.94

    Below break-even (71% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 135.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT16MANTFC-MAN · NO
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.1 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1269. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FeyenoordvComoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    YESComo to WinWins if: Como wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −13.9 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.67 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.25 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts37,377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.5 points on 59 matches · price 24 min old · 4153.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-COM · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 450, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 59 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1270. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.1 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.82 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.27 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts96,853 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.9 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 10761.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-ATM · YES
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1271. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.1 points
    conservative 21% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.67 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.98 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts502 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 35.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-5 · YES
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1272. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESVenezia to WinWins if: Venezia wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.2 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.50 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.25 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,441 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.1 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 193.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 20%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1273. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAtalanta to WinWins if: AC Milan wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.2 points
    conservative 65% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.85 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 16.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA · NO
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1274. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Augsburg to WinWins if: FC Augsburg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.5 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.70 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.88 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 25.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1275. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YES1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    18%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.5 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.19 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.32 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,125 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 70.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 18%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG2 · YES
    Model
    18% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1276. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Atletico MadridvManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOManchester United to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.6 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.52 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.87 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts34,789 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.5 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 5798.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ATMMUN-MUN · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 444, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1277. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOCagliari to WinWins if: Monza wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.6 points
    conservative 60% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.79 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.88 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,697 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 282.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Cagliari to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-CAG · NO
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1278. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvNapoliUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOVillarreal to WinWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.6 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.31 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts711 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 79.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VILNAP-VIL · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 449, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1279. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.7 points
    conservative 53% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.98 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.03 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,200 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 171.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN1 · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1280. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.8 points
    conservative 45% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.13 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.18 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,450 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 306.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-3 · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1281. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −14.9 points
    conservative 36% vs break-even 50.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.39 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.49 on $5.08

    Below break-even (51% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts501 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 50.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG2 · YES
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1282. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.1 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.92 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.06 on $5.08

    Below break-even (73% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,410 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 772.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1283. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.1 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.66 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.82 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,605 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 217.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-5 · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1284. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLens to WinWins if: Estac Troyes wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.2 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.37 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.52 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts852 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 962 matches · price 24 min old · 85.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL · NO
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1285. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    23%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.3 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.67 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.29 on $5.19

    Below break-even (35% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts963 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.1 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 64.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 23%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG · YES
    Model
    23% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1286. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.3 points
    conservative 19% vs break-even 34.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.21 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.29 on $5.19

    Below break-even (35% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,379 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 91.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-4 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1287. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBrighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Brighton wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    27%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.3 points
    conservative 25% vs break-even 40.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.60 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.84 on $4.88

    Below break-even (41% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,542 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 128.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 27%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI2 · YES
    Model
    27% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1288. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOValencia to WinWins if: Athletic Club wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.4 points
    conservative 62% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.76 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.92 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,708 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 284.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF · NO
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1289. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    TottenhamvCoventryPremier League · Mon 19 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESTottenham to WinWins if: Tottenham wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.4 points
    conservative 52% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.87 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.08 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26,261 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 3751.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Tottenham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT19TOTCOV-TOT · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 505, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1290. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to WinWins if: Coventry wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    16 contracts for $4.80 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.5 points
    conservative 16% vs break-even 31.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.46 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.47 on $5.04

    Below break-even (32% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts125,523 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.4 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 7845.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 30%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT12COVNEW-COV · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 30¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1291. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to WinWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.5 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.94 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.08 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts34,418 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 4916.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV · NO
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1292. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Estac Troyes wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.6 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.89 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.93 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts854 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 142.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL2 · NO
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 70.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1293. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    MonzavCagliariSerie A · Mon 19 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESMonza to WinWins if: Monza wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.7 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.72 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.8 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 284.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monza to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT19MONCAG-MON · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 503, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 3.2 points on 294 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1294. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAEK Athens FC to WinWins if: AEK Athens FC wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    33 contracts for $4.95 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.9 points
    conservative 0% vs break-even 15.9%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.19 on $5.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$5.25 on $5.25

    Below break-even (16% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.1 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 3.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20MCIAEK-AEK · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 512, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 33 contracts at 15¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 4¢ · book 101% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1295. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −15.9 points
    conservative 51% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.01 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.12 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,115 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 302.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV2 · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1296. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.0 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 48.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.35 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.60 on $4.88

    Below break-even (49% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts649 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 64.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-3 · NO
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1297. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.1 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.99 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.12 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts886 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 126.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT16MANTFC-4 · NO
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1298. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAthletic Club to WinWins if: Athletic Club wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.2 points
    conservative 33% vs break-even 48.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.32 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.62 on $4.88

    Below break-even (49% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 33.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1299. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    26%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.2 points
    conservative 26% vs break-even 41.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.88 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.95 on $5.01

    Below break-even (42% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts605 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 50.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 26%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-4 · YES
    Model
    26% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1300. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.3 points
    conservative 39% vs break-even 55.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.41 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.47 on $5.02

    Below break-even (56% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts713 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 79.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-3 · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1301. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOHull City to WinWins if: Fulham wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.4 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.90 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.98 on $4.99

    Below break-even (83% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,224 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2037.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL · NO
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1302. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESEstac Troyes to WinWins if: Estac Troyes wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.4 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.75 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.28 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,266 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.2 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 163.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1303. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvFC PortoUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Betis to WinWins if: FC Porto wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.5 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 56.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.43 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.49 on $5.11

    Below break-even (57% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts15,607 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 1734.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14RBBFCP-RBB · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 454, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1304. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSV Elversberg to WinWins if: FC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.5 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.19 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.32 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts330 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 41.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVEFCA-SVE · NO
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1305. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Mönchengladbach to WinWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.6 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.90 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.99 on $4.47

    Below break-even (75% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts743 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 123.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-BMG · NO
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.6 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1306. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.6 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.27 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.33 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,155 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 144.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-3 · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1307. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    VikingvBayern MünchenUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBayern München to WinWins if: Bayern München wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −16.7 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.51 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.83 on $4.54

    Below break-even (91% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts204,360 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.4 points on 38 matches · price 24 min old · 40872.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (1 match). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU · YES
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 448, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 12.6 points on 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1308. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSlovan Bratislava to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.0 points
    conservative 0% vs break-even 17.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.91 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$5.26 on $5.26

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±3.5 points on 35 matches · price 24 min old · 3.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-SLO · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.6 points on 35 matches (the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (3.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 11¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.0–0.1 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1309. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESAS Roma to WinWins if: AS Roma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.0 points
    conservative 56% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.83 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.02 on $4.41

    Below break-even (74% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,936 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 1155.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 11 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM · YES
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1310. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBrighton to WinWins if: Brighton wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.1 points
    conservative 47% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.13 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.37 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 2.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1311. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAS Roma to WinWins if: Slovan Bratislava wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    20 contracts for $5.00 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.2 points
    conservative 9% vs break-even 26.4%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.53 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.44 on $5.27

    Below break-even (26% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±4.5 points on 58 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 22%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-ROM · NO
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.0 points on 58 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 20 contracts at 25¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 22.0% · spread 6¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.7 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1312. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAC Milan to WinWins if: AC Milan wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.7 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.31 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.59 on $4.93

    Below break-even (55% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,949 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 772.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1313. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 5 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.7 points
    conservative 8% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$3.36 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.54 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,345 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 67.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 23%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-5 · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1314. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.8 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.73 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$0.89 on $4.25

    Below break-even (85% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,217 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 243.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-5 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition

  1315. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESAS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: AS Roma wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −17.9 points
    conservative 32% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.59 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.79 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,362 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 336.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM2 · YES
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1316. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −18.2 points
    conservative 49% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.14 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.27 on $4.73

    Below break-even (68% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts854 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 122.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-4 · NO
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1317. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YES1899 Hoffenheim to WinWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    36%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −18.3 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 52.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.51 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.65 on $4.75

    Below break-even (53% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,821 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.6 points on 954 matches · price 24 min old · 535.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 36%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG · YES
    Model
    36% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1318. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −18.3 points
    conservative 58% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.60 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.10 on $4.58

    Below break-even (76% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts475 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±8.3 points on 32 matches · price 24 min old · 79.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-VFB · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 11.0 points on 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (8.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1319. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    9%
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    23 contracts for $4.83 + $0.27 fee
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    −18.6 points
    conservative 4% vs break-even 22.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.96 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.27 on $5.10

    Below break-even (22% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts82 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 500 matches · price 24 min old · 3.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 9%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-TIE · YES
    Model
    9% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 509, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 4.4 points on 500 matches (Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.27 on 23 contracts at 21¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 14¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort, class mean; the predicted range holds too few matches)

  1320. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESFulham to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Fulham wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −19.0 points
    conservative 17% vs break-even 35.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.39 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.66 on $4.98

    Below break-even (36% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,301 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 92.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL2 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1321. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBarcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Barcelona wins by 2 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −19.0 points
    conservative 31% vs break-even 49.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.81 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.90 on $4.98

    Below break-even (50% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,475 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 247.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 16 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR2 · YES
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1322. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAtalanta to WinWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    29%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −19.2 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 38.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.32 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.49 on $5.03

    Below break-even (39% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts20,122 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 24 min old · 1547.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 29%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA · NO
    Model
    29% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)

  1323. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    30%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −19.3 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 46.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.84 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.12 on $5.15

    Below break-even (47% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,421 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 129.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 30%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18OSASAN-3 · NO
    Model
    30% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1324. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −19.7 points
    conservative 34% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.35 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.77 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts124,638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±4.7 points on 110 matches · price 24 min old · 13848.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 13 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-RMA · YES
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.5 points on 110 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 51.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1325. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    68%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    −20.1 points
    conservative 67% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.97 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.01 on $4.35

    Below break-even (87% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,888 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 377.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 68%, 16 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-2 · YES
    Model
    68% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1326. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavReal MadridUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAS Roma to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −20.3 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.85 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.22 on $4.64

    Below break-even (77% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25,511 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.1 points on 91 matches · price 24 min old · 4251.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-ROM · NO
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 452, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.1 points on 91 matches (the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.3–0.4 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1327. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Slovan BratislavavVfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSlovan Bratislava to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −21.1 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.06 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14,625 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.0 points on 37 matches · price 24 min old · 2924.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SLOVFB-SLO · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 458, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 7.9 points on 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1328. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBarcelona to WinWins if: Barcelona wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −21.6 points
    conservative 50% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.30 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.51 on $5.01

    Below break-even (72% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts593 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,209 matches · price 24 min old · 84.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 16 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1329. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Aston VillavFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAston Villa to WinWins if: Fenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −21.7 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.29 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.39 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12,720 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.5 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 1156.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 453, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1330. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    LensvSporting CPUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOLens to WinWins if: Sporting CP wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −21.8 points
    conservative 42% vs break-even 63.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.80 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.74 on $5.10

    Below break-even (64% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,155 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 519.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 441, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1331. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Lask LinzvLiverpoolUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT
    NOLiverpool to WinWins if: Lask Linz wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    20 contracts for $4.80 + $0.26 fee
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −22.2 points
    conservative 3% vs break-even 25.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $5.06
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$4.44 on $5.06

    Below break-even (25% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts23,761 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.8 points on 38 matches · price 24 min old · 1188.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 24%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ASKLFC-LFC · NO
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 451, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 12.6 points on 38 matches (Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.26 on 20 contracts at 24¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — Champions League favourites at or above 0.6 (Phase 8A cohort; the finer bins are too thin)

  1332. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESFulham to WinWins if: Fulham wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −22.4 points
    conservative 37% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.55 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.79 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,284 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 1,190 matches · price 24 min old · 160.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 17 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT17FULHUL-FUL · YES
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.5 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition

  1333. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBarcelona to WinWins if: Barcelona wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    −22.7 points
    conservative 57% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.85 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.36 on $4.76

    Below break-even (79% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts154,867 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±8.4 points on 32 matches · price 24 min old · 25811.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-BAR · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 11.0 points on 32 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (8.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1334. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOShakhtar Donetsk to WinWins if: AEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −23.1 points
    conservative 44% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.80 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.62 on $4.67

    Below break-even (67% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts9,773 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.0 points on 101 matches · price 24 min old · 1396.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Shakhtar Donetsk to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-SHA · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 457, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 6.8 points on 101 matches (the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.4–0.5 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1335. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League · Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −23.1 points
    conservative 35% vs break-even 57.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.95 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.85 on $4.62

    Below break-even (58% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,993 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 75 matches · price 24 min old · 374.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 456, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 5.4 points on 75 matches (the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.5–0.6 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1336. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    GalatasarayvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOGalatasaray to WinWins if: Barcelona wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    −23.9 points
    conservative 68% vs break-even 91.6%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.19 on $4.58

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts28,763 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.3 points on 37 matches · price 24 min old · 5752.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Galatasaray to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT13GALBAR-GAL · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 445, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 7.9 points on 37 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 90.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1337. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    20%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −24.0 points
    conservative 20% vs break-even 43.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.58 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.64 on $4.81

    Below break-even (44% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,346 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 122.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 20%, 21 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-4 · YES
    Model
    20% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1338. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESOver 2.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    −25.7 points
    conservative 40% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.75 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$1.80 on $4.60

    Below break-even (66% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts396 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.7 points on 5,505 matches · price 24 min old · 56.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 22 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-3 · YES
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.7 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)

  1339. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    NapolivBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONapoli to WinWins if: Bodo/Glimt wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −31.6 points
    conservative 28% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$1.71 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.52 on $4.78

    Below break-even (60% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.8 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 3.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 14 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20NAPBOG-NAP · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 513, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1340. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvRB LeipzigUEFA Champions League · Wed 21 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    32%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −33.2 points
    conservative 22% vs break-even 54.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.09 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.99 on $4.93

    Below break-even (55% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts175 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±5.5 points on 71 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 32%, 17 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT21RMARBL-RMA · NO
    Model
    32% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 524, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 4.5 points on 71 matches (the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (5.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 48.5% · spread 9¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.6–0.7 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1341. Not actionable now: not in Build: competition rule; no positive estimated return.

    Sporting CPvLask LinzUEFA Champions League · Wed 21 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSporting CP to WinWins if: Lask Linz wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    24%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −35.9 points
    conservative 18% vs break-even 53.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.64 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$3.23 on $4.84

    Below break-even (54% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: competition rule · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts175 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.6 points on 42 matches · price 24 min old · 19.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · not in Build: competition policy

    Got%OnIt puts this at 24%, 23 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT21SPOASK-SPO · NO
    Model
    24% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 525, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    competition policy (champions league 1x2 yes only)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 47.0% · spread 10¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1342. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Paris Saint GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League · Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBarcelona to WinWins if: Barcelona wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    28%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    −36.8 points
    conservative 24% vs break-even 60.8%
    Kelly fraction
    0% (below break-even)
    Estimated return
    −$2.60 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    −$2.95 on $4.86

    Below break-even (61% needed)

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · calibration ±4.4 points on 106 matches · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 28%, 24 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-BAR · YES
    Model
    28% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 514, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 106 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (4.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 13¢ · book 107% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)

  1343. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.88 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,814 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 437.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12ATAVEN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1344. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.00 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,908 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 488.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12ATAVEN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1345. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts33,251 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6650.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 99%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 99%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.98 · mid (side) 98.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1346. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVenezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    1%
    Kalshi price
    2¢
    250 contracts for $5.00 + $0.35 fee
    Break-even chance
    2.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.72 on $5.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (2% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,245 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 1%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 2%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3 · YES
    Model
    1% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.35 on 250 contracts at 2¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.02 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 1.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1347. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    48%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.15 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts411 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 41.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 48%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12TORUDI-BTTS · NO
    Model
    48% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1348. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    52%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10,575 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1175.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 52%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12TORUDI-BTTS · YES
    Model
    52% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1349. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOUdinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Torino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1350. TorinovUdineseSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESUdinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.42 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,622 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 21.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 438, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1351. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.65 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,450 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 537.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT12COVNEW-BTTS · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1352. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.79 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,437 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 304.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT12COVNEW-BTTS · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1353. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONewcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn, or Newcastle wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (93% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26,396 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5279.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1354. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    CoventryvNewcastlePremier League · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$1.83 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,856 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 33.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT12COVNEW-NEW3 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 439, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1355. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.47 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,977 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 497.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT12LEVSEV-BTTS · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1356. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.01 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,819 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 757.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT12LEVSEV-BTTS · YES
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1357. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17,512 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3502.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1358. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sevilla wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.70 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 21.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1359. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    35%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.35 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 35%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT16SGEKOE-BTTS · NO
    Model
    35% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1360. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    65%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,076 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 868.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 65%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT16SGEKOE-BTTS · YES
    Model
    65% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1361. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NO1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts12 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1362. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC KölnBundesliga · Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YES1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: 1. FC Köln wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.54 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,069 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 459, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1363. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    37%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts8,877 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 682.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 37%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT16FROSAS-BTTS · NO
    Model
    37% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1364. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    63%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.20 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 63%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT16FROSAS-BTTS · YES
    Model
    63% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1365. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOSassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Frosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts703 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 140.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1366. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FrosinonevSassuoloSerie A · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESSassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sassuolo wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.49 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,292 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 461, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1367. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts423 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 38.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT16MANTFC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1368. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    8 contracts for $4.80 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,416 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 552.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 59%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT16MANTFC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 60¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1369. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOToulouse to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Le Mans wins or the match is drawn, or Toulouse wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts416 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 83.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1370. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Le MansvToulouseLigue 1 · Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESToulouse to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Toulouse wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.56 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,531 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 27.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT16MANTFC-TFC3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 460, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1371. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.76 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 139.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 46%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT16DEPLEV-BTTS · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1372. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 41.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT16DEPLEV-BTTS · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1373. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOLevante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn, or Levante wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1374. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Deportivo La CorunavLevanteLa Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.15 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT16DEPLEV-LEV3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 462, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1375. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    43%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.20 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,351 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 112.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 43%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17EVECFC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    43% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1376. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    57%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.57 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,985 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 873.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 57%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17EVECFC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    57% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1377. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOChelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Everton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts350 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 70.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1378. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESChelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Chelsea wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.11 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,280 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 50.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1379. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 36.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17ESPATM-BTTS · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1380. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.38 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,708 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 588.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17ESPATM-BTTS · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1381. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts216 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 43.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1382. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESAtletico Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atletico Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    35 contracts for $4.90 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.59 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (15% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts931 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 26.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 13%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.30 on 35 contracts at 14¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 13.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1383. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    10 contracts for $4.60 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.68 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,952 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 395.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 10 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17VENNAP-BTTS · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 46¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1384. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.07 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts690 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 86.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 10 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17VENNAP-BTTS · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1385. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NONapoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (88% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts958 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 191.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP3 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1386. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Napoli wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    17%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.13 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,290 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 41.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 17%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP3 · YES
    Model
    17% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1387. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts65 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17UNIBVB-BTTS · NO
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1388. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.61 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,536 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 567.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17UNIBVB-BTTS · YES
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1389. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Union Berlin wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,416 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1236.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB3 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1390. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    15%
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    26 contracts for $4.94 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.42 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (20% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 32.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 15%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 18%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17UNIBVB-BVB3 · YES
    Model
    15% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.29 on 26 contracts at 19¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1391. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    15 contracts for $4.95 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $5.19
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,480 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 98.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 32%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17HSVVFB-BTTS · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.24 on 15 contracts at 33¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 32.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1392. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.55 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 68%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17HSVVFB-BTTS · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 67.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1393. Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Hamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.02 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB3 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1394. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESVfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    14%
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    29 contracts for $4.93 + $0.29 fee
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.28 on $5.22
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (18% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts850 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 29.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 14%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 16%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB3 · YES
    Model
    14% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 467, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.29 on 29 contracts at 17¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1395. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$1.56 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,333 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 527.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 16 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVWPAD-BTTS · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1396. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.36 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,721 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 674.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 16 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVWPAD-BTTS · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1397. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Werder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1398. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.59 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 468, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 4.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1399. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.76 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,999 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 416.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SCHM05-BTTS · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1400. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.82 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SCHM05-BTTS · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1401. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn, or FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts752 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 150.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M053 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1402. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.61 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,257 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 25.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M053 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 469, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1403. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.50 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,193 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 228.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVEFCA-BTTS · NO
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1404. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.61 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 714.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVEFCA-BTTS · YES
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1405. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn, or FC Augsburg wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    94¢
    5 contracts for $4.70 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    94.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.72
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts713 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 142.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 94¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.94 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1406. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    SV ElversbergvFC AugsburgBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Augsburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: FC Augsburg wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.56 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 8%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (5 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVEFCA-FCA3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 470, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.06 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1407. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,780 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 136.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17BRELFC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1408. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,643 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 806.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17BRELFC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1409. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOLiverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Brentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.19 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,476 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 495.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 93%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC3 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 93.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1410. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrentfordvLiverpoolPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESLiverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Liverpool wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    55 contracts for $4.95 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.69 on $5.27
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (10% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,223 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 40.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC3 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 471, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 55 contracts at 9¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 7.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1411. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    10 contracts for $4.70 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,026 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 402.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 45%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17FULHUL-BTTS · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 47¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1412. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    8 contracts for $4.48 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.61 on $4.62
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,849 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 606.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 55%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17FULHUL-BTTS · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 56¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1413. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOHull City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Fulham wins or the match is drawn, or Hull City wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.16 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 10:30 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1414. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    FulhamvHull CityPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Hull City wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts516 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 4.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17FULHUL-HUL3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 472, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 10:30 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1415. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.47 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts696 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 69.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17MCIIPS-BTTS · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1416. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17MCIIPS-BTTS · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1417. Not actionable now: no current ask; no contracts resting.

    Manchester CityvIpswichPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOIpswich to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Ipswich wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    —
    no current ask
    Break-even chance
    —
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    no executable ask for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no current ask
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contractsnone resting
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. The quote fails the quality gate (spread or book), so its price is not a fair one to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17MCIIPS-IPS3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 473, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no executable quote (market reference unavailable)
    Quote
    ask — · bid 0.8 · mid (side) — · spread — · book — · gate failed · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1418. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    11 contracts for $4.73 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.41 on $4.92
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts972 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 88.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 42%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VILELC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 43¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1419. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts672 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 84.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 58%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VILELC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1420. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOElche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Villarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 10¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1421. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    VillarrealvElcheLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESElche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Elche wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$4.48 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 474, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 10¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1422. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    39%
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    13 contracts for $4.81 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts373 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 28.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 39%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 36%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17RCSPSG-BTTS · NO
    Model
    39% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.22 on 13 contracts at 37¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1423. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    61%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.48 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts382 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 54.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 61%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17RCSPSG-BTTS · YES
    Model
    61% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1424. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts581 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 96.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG3 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1425. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    19%
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    17 contracts for $4.93 + $0.25 fee
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.96 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (30% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts502 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 29.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 19%, 9 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 28%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17RCSPSG-PSG3 · YES
    Model
    19% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.25 on 17 contracts at 29¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1426. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.00 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,021 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 92.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17BFCINT-BTTS · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1427. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    8 contracts for $4.56 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.44 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts721 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 90.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17BFCINT-BTTS · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 57¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1428. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOInter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    87%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts40 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 87%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT3 · NO
    Model
    87% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1429. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESInter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Inter wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    13%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.68 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 18.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 13%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT3 · YES
    Model
    13% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1430. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    38%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,039 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 169.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 38%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17NEWAVL-BTTS · NO
    Model
    38% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1431. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    62%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts691 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 98.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 62%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17NEWAVL-BTTS · YES
    Model
    62% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1432. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOAston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,943 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 388.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 95.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1433. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    NewcastlevAston VillaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Aston Villa wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.06 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts946 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 13.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17NEWAVL-AVL3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 477, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1434. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    14 contracts for $4.76 + $0.22 fee
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts371 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 26.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 33%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17RBBBAR-BTTS · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.22 on 14 contracts at 34¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1435. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.26 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,015 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 859.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17RBBBAR-BTTS · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1436. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBarcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.89 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 15 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 70%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR3 · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1437. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBarcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Barcelona wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    16%
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    16 contracts for $4.96 + $0.24 fee
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.70 on $5.20
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (33% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,377 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 148.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 16%, 15 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR3 · YES
    Model
    16% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.24 on 16 contracts at 31¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1438. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17BMURBL-BTTS · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1439. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.30 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17BMURBL-BTTS · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1440. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NORB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 99%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 10¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1441. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESRB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: RB Leipzig wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    1%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$4.75 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 1%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL3 · YES
    Model
    1% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 478, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 10¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1442. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    9 contracts for $4.86 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,966 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 551.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 53%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17ROMGEN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 54¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1443. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.61 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 68.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17ROMGEN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1444. Not actionable now: no current ask; no contracts resting.

    AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOGenoa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Genoa wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    —
    no current ask
    Break-even chance
    —
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    no executable ask for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no current ask
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contractsnone resting
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. The quote fails the quality gate (spread or book), so its price is not a fair one to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-GEN3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no executable quote (market reference unavailable)
    Quote
    ask — · bid 0.95 · mid (side) — · spread — · book — · gate failed · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1445. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,629 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 329.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17LILSTB-BTTS · NO
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1446. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.63 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,907 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 238.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17LILSTB-BTTS · YES
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1447. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOStade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,074 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 214.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1448. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LillevStade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESStade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.07 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts939 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 480, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1449. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.23 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,420 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 285.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17ESTRCL-BTTS · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1450. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    8 contracts for $4.96 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.36 on $5.10
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,611 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 576.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 61%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17ESTRCL-BTTS · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 62¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1451. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Estac Troyes wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (89% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts770 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 154.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 8 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL3 · NO
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1452. Not actionable now: limited model evidence.

    Estac TroyesvLensLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lens wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    22%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$1.65 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,545 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 49.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 22%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (6 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL3 · YES
    Model
    22% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 481, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1453. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    10 contracts for $4.90 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 121.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 48%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VCFATH-BTTS · NO
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 49¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 48.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1454. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    9 contracts for $4.77 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.72 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts367 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 40.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 52%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VCFATH-BTTS · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 53¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1455. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts750 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 150.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1456. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAthletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Athletic Club wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.97 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts837 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 16.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1457. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,989 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 443.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18UDILEC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1458. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.68 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,226 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 136.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18UDILEC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1459. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    NOLecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1460. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    UdinesevLecceSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT
    YESLecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lecce wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.36 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts26 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 484, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1461. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    33%
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    12 contracts for $4.92 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.17 on $5.13
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,803 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 150.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 33%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 40%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18OSASAN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    33% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 41¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1462. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    67%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts869 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 108.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 67%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18OSASAN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    67% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1463. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NORacing Santander to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Osasuna wins or the match is drawn, or Racing Santander wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    98¢
    5 contracts for $4.90 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    98.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.08 on $4.91
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (98% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts69 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 13.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 98¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.98 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1464. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    OsasunavRacing SantanderLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESRacing Santander to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Racing Santander wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.99 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts416 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 4.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the away side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18OSASAN-SAN3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 485, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.02 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1465. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    11 contracts for $4.62 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts658 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 59.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 41%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18FIOCOM-BTTS · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 42¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1466. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    8 contracts for $4.88 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.60 on $5.02
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts691 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 86.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 60%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18FIOCOM-BTTS · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 61¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1467. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOComo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Fiorentina wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,145 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 229.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1468. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESComo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Como wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    10%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.33 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 10%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 11%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18FIOCOM-COM3 · YES
    Model
    10% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1469. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,197 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 99.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18ANGOLM-BTTS · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1470. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.72 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,731 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 675.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18ANGOLM-BTTS · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1471. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOMarseille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Angers wins or the match is drawn, or Marseille wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    5 contracts for $4.55 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.18 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (92% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts391 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 78.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 90%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 91¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 90.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1472. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESMarseille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Marseille wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts505 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 10%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-OLM3 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 10.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1473. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts626 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 56.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BOUSUN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1474. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.50 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,419 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 927.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BOUSUN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1475. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOSunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,253 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 450.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.94 · mid (side) 96.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1476. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BournemouthvSunderlandPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESSunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Sunderland wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    6¢
    83 contracts for $4.98 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    6.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.04 on $5.31
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (6% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts84 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 4%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 486, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 83 contracts at 6¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.06 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1477. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.56 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,098 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 99.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BRICRY-BTTS · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1478. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.03 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,142 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 142.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BRICRY-BTTS · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1479. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOCrystal Palace to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Brighton wins or the match is drawn, or Crystal Palace wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.14 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1480. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESCrystal Palace to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.73 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,037 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 10.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1481. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    41%
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    12 contracts for $4.80 + $0.21 fee
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,779 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 481.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 41%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 39%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18LEEMUN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    41% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.21 on 12 contracts at 40¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1482. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    59%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.39 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,040 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 720.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 59%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18LEEMUN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    59% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1483. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOManchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Leeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    95¢
    5 contracts for $4.75 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    95.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.77
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (95% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts393 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 78.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN3 · NO
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 95¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.95 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1484. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LeedsvManchester UnitedPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESManchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Manchester United wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    6%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.13 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts507 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 7.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 6%, within a point of the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN3 · YES
    Model
    6% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 488, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.05 · mid (side) 6.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1485. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,917 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 409.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 37%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18LEVSCF-BTTS · NO
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 37.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1486. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.63 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,711 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 815.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18LEVSCF-BTTS · YES
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 63.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1487. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.07 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,032 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 206.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 94%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 93.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1488. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Bayer LeverkusenvSC FreiburgBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: SC Freiburg wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    12¢
    41 contracts for $4.92 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    12.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$4.37 on $5.23
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (13% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 7%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 491, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 41 contracts at 12¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.12 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 6.5% · spread 11¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1489. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    53%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.01 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts737 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 81.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 53%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RCCALA-BTTS · NO
    Model
    53% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1490. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    47%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.58 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,796 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 532.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 47%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RCCALA-BTTS · YES
    Model
    47% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1491. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOAlaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Celta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.09 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 299.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA3 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 7¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1492. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Celta VigovAlavesLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESAlaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Alaves wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    3%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.67 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 3%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 5%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA3 · YES
    Model
    3% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 492, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 4.5% · spread 7¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1493. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.34 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,346 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 304.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18HACAUX-BTTS · NO
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1494. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    50%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.77 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,026 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 878.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 50%, 6 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18HACAUX-BTTS · YES
    Model
    50% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1495. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOAuxerre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Le Havre wins or the match is drawn, or Auxerre wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.02 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (96% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts437 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 87.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.93 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1496. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; no positive estimated return.

    Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESAuxerre to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Auxerre wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    4%
    Kalshi price
    7¢
    71 contracts for $4.97 + $0.33 fee
    Break-even chance
    7.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.50 on $5.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (7% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 4%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18HACAUX-AUX3 · YES
    Model
    4% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.33 on 71 contracts at 7¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.07 · bid 0.04 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1497. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    42%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.75 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts7,482 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 748.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 42%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18FCLASM-BTTS · NO
    Model
    42% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1498. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    58%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts413 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 45.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 58%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18FCLASM-BTTS · YES
    Model
    58% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1499. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOMonaco to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lorient wins or the match is drawn, or Monaco wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    92%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.10 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,064 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 212.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 92%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 91%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM3 · NO
    Model
    92% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.89 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1500. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESMonaco to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Monaco wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    8%
    Kalshi price
    11¢
    45 contracts for $4.95 + $0.31 fee
    Break-even chance
    11.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.50 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (12% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts917 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 8%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM3 · YES
    Model
    8% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.31 on 45 contracts at 11¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.11 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1501. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    40%
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    12 contracts for $4.68 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.88
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts430 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 35.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 40%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 38%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18PARREN-BTTS · NO
    Model
    40% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 12 contracts at 39¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1502. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    60%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.42 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts889 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 127.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 60%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18PARREN-BTTS · YES
    Model
    60% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1503. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NORennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Paris FC wins or the match is drawn, or Rennes wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    97¢
    5 contracts for $4.85 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    97.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.12 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (97% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,468 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 293.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 95%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 97¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.97 · bid 0.92 · mid (side) 94.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1504. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Paris FCvRennesLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESRennes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Rennes wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    8¢
    62 contracts for $4.96 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    8.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$2.20 on $5.28
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (9% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts507 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 6%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18PARREN-REN3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 495, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 62 contracts at 8¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.08 · bid 0.03 · mid (side) 5.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1505. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    56%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.24 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts443 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 49.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 56%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18NFOARS-BTTS · NO
    Model
    56% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1506. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    44%
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    10 contracts for $5.00 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.82 on $5.18
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,176 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 117.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 44%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 49%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18NFOARS-BTTS · YES
    Model
    44% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 50¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1507. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts735 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 147.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1508. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESArsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Arsenal wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    12%
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    27 contracts for $4.86 + $0.28 fee
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.92 on $5.14
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (19% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,236 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 45.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 12%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 17%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS3 · YES
    Model
    12% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.28 on 27 contracts at 18¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1509. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    34%
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    15 contracts for $4.80 + $0.23 fee
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 34%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 31%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18BMGTSG-BTTS · NO
    Model
    34% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.23 on 15 contracts at 32¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth no)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1510. Not actionable now: not enough available contracts for the stake; unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    66%
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    7 contracts for $4.83 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.35 on $4.94
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: too few resting contracts
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 66%, 3 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. Fewer contracts rest at the ask than the stake needs, so the price would not fill.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18BMGTSG-BTTS · YES
    Model
    66% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 69¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    insufficient depth (insufficient resting depth yes)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
  1511. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    5 contracts for $4.35 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.25 on $4.39
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Model above break-even (no adjusted figure)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts759 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 151.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 87¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1512. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    YES1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    31 contracts for $4.96 + $0.30 fee
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.06 on $5.26
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (17% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 36.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 7 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 14%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.30 on 31 contracts at 16¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1513. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.25 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 58.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18ACMATA-BTTS · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1514. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.34 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts65 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18ACMATA-BTTS · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1515. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAtalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: AC Milan wins or the match is drawn, or Atalanta wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    95%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.21 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,405 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 280.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 95%, 2 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA3 · NO
    Model
    95% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1516. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    5%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.28 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts533 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 5%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ATA3 · YES
    Model
    5% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1517. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    54%
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    11 contracts for $4.84 + $0.19 fee
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.91 on $5.03
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,327 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 120.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 54%, 12 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 43%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18MCFRSO-BTTS · NO
    Model
    54% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.19 on 11 contracts at 44¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1518. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    46%
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    8 contracts for $4.72 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.18 on $4.86
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,531 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 566.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 46%, 12 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18MCFRSO-BTTS · YES
    Model
    46% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 59¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1519. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOReal Sociedad to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Malaga wins or the match is drawn, or Real Sociedad wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.04 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (94% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 223.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1520. Not actionable now: limited model evidence; no positive estimated return.

    MalagavReal SociedadLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESReal Sociedad to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Sociedad wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    7%
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    50 contracts for $5.00 + $0.32 fee
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$1.71 on $5.32
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (11% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts635 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 7%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 9%. Treat the gap with care: thin history for the home side (8 matches). A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO3 · YES
    Model
    7% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 499, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.32 on 50 contracts at 10¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1521. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    9 contracts for $4.68 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.84
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts721 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 80.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 51%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18JUVLAZ-BTTS · NO
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 52¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 50.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1522. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    9 contracts for $4.59 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.70 on $4.75
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts6,228 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 692.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 5 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 50%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18JUVLAZ-BTTS · YES
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 51¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1523. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Juventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.05 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts302 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 98%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.96 · mid (side) 97.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1524. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    4¢
    125 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    4.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.16 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (4% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts500 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 4.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 125 contracts at 4¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.04 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 2.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1525. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    45%
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    11 contracts for $4.95 + $0.20 fee
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.22 on $5.15
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts915 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 83.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 45%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 44%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18OLNIC-BTTS · NO
    Model
    45% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.20 on 11 contracts at 45¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1526. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    55%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.37 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,218 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 652.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 55%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 56%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18OLNIC-BTTS · YES
    Model
    55% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1527. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NONice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lyon wins or the match is drawn, or Nice wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    98%
    Kalshi price
    99¢
    5 contracts for $4.95 + $0.01 fee
    Break-even chance
    99.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.06 on $4.96
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (99% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts300 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 98%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 97%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC3 · NO
    Model
    98% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.01 on 5 contracts at 99¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.99 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 97.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1528. Not actionable now: no positive estimated return.

    LyonvNiceLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESNice to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Nice wins by 3 goals or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    2%
    Kalshi price
    5¢
    100 contracts for $5.00 + $0.34 fee
    Break-even chance
    5.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$3.31 on $5.34
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Below break-even (5% needed)

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts506 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 2%, 1 point below the Kalshi mid-price of 3%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18OLNIC-NIC3 · YES
    Model
    2% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 500, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    $0.34 on 100 contracts at 5¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.05 · bid 0.01 · mid (side) 3.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1529. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence).

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: At least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included)
    Got%OnIt chance
    51%
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    10 contracts for $4.80 + $0.18 fee
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.98
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts660 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 66.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 51%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 47%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RMASEV-BTTS · NO
    Model
    51% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.18 on 10 contracts at 48¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1530. Not actionable now: unsupported market (limited evidence); no positive estimated return.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESBoth Teams to ScoreWins if: Both teams score at least once
    Got%OnIt chance
    49%
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    9 contracts for $4.95 + $0.16 fee
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    −$0.66 on $5.11
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    Limited evidence: research only, no adjusted figure

    • ReliabilityLimited evidence · Not in Build: below Build's 50% floor · Long shot: the model's calibration is weakest at low probabilities
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,229 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 469.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    Got%OnIt puts this at 49%, 4 points below the Kalshi mid-price of 54%. This market has no documented calibration, so the gap cannot be adjusted. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Both teams to score (90 minutes) · KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RMASEV-BTTS · YES
    Model
    49% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    both teams to score: measured (5,505 matches) but with almost no skill over its base rate (A1 §6); treated as limited evidence
    Fee
    $0.16 on 9 contracts at 55¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    below default floor (below min leg probability)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1531. Not actionable now: no current ask; no contracts resting.

    Real MadridvSevillaLa Liga · Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Real Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    99%
    Kalshi price
    —
    no current ask
    Break-even chance
    —
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    no executable ask for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no current ask
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contractsnone resting
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample 0 settled

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. The quote fails the quality gate (spread or book), so its price is not a fair one to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV3 · NO
    Model
    99% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 502, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    no documented calibration measurement for this market type at adequate size; the figure cannot be adjusted numerically
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no executable quote (market reference unavailable)
    Quote
    ask — · bid 0.82 · mid (side) — · spread — · book — · gate failed · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1532. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Mönchengladbach to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts87 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 17.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-BMG · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1533. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Mönchengladbach to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,750 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 94.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Mönchengladbach to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-BMG · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 14.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1534. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Mönchengladbach wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts87 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 17.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1535. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,808 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 108.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1536. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    NOVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts138 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-VFB · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 31.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1537. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    VfB StuttgartvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · Fri 23 Oct, 11:30 PDT
    YESVfB Stuttgart to WinWins if: VfB Stuttgart wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT23VFBBMG-VFB · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 69.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1538. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOMonza to WinWins if: Torino wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts207 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 34.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monza to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-MON · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1539. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESMonza to WinWins if: Monza wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts214 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monza to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-MON · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1540. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Torino or Monza wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts149 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 24.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1541. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,217 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 130.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1542. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOTorino to WinWins if: Monza wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts758 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 94.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-TOR · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1543. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    TorinovMonzaSerie A · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESTorino to WinWins if: Torino wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 213.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Torino to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT23TORMON-TOR · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1544. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NONice to WinWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts354 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 59.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-NIC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1545. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESNice to WinWins if: Nice wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 125.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nice to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-NIC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1546. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOStade Brestois 29 to WinWins if: Nice wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    59¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    60.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-STB · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.59 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1547. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESStade Brestois 29 to WinWins if: Stade Brestois 29 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 181.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-STB · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.41 · mid (side) 42.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1548. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Stade Brestois 29 or Nice wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,579 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 429.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1549. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Stade Brestois 29vNiceLigue 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,686 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 292.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT23STBNIC-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1550. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOIpswich to WinWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-IPS · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1551. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESIpswich to WinWins if: Ipswich wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,020 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 215.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Ipswich to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-IPS · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1552. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NONottingham Forest to WinWins if: Ipswich wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts158 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 19.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-NFO · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1553. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESNottingham Forest to WinWins if: Nottingham Forest wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-NFO · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 1¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1554. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Ipswich or Nottingham Forest wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts168 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 28.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1555. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IpswichvNottingham ForestPremier League · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,984 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 175.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT23IPSNFO-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1556. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAlaves to WinWins if: Malaga wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts82 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-ALA · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1557. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAlaves to WinWins if: Alaves wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Alaves to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-ALA · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1558. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOMalaga to WinWins if: Alaves wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-MCF · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1559. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESMalaga to WinWins if: Malaga wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 48.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Malaga to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-MCF · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1560. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Alaves or Malaga wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1561. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AlavesvMalagaLa Liga · Fri 23 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,250 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 65.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT23ALAMCF-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:49 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1562. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOAston Villa to WinWins if: Manchester City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-AVL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1563. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESAston Villa to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,639 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 105.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Aston Villa to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-AVL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1564. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOManchester City to WinWins if: Aston Villa wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts10 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-MCI · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1565. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESManchester City to WinWins if: Manchester City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-MCI · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1566. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Aston Villa or Manchester City wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts147 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 24.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1567. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Aston VillavManchester CityPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts529 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 24.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24AVLMCI-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1568. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOElche to WinWins if: Rayo Vallecano wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-ELC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1569. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESElche to WinWins if: Elche wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,103 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 50.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Elche to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-ELC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1570. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NORayo Vallecano to WinWins if: Elche wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts39 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-RVC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.44 · mid (side) 45.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1571. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESRayo Vallecano to WinWins if: Rayo Vallecano wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    56¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    57.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rayo Vallecano to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-RVC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.56 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 54.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1572. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Rayo Vallecano or Elche wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1573. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Rayo VallecanovElcheLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,427 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 127.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24RVCELC-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1574. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBologna to WinWins if: Cagliari wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts44 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-BFC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1575. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESBologna to WinWins if: Bologna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,969 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 179.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bologna to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-BFC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1576. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOCagliari to WinWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts96 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 16.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Cagliari to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-CAG · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1577. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESCagliari to WinWins if: Cagliari wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,081 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 138.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Cagliari to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-CAG · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1578. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Cagliari or Bologna wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts78 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1579. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CagliarivBolognaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,848 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 132.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24CAGBFC-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 31.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1580. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOComo to WinWins if: Sassuolo wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts42 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-COM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 32.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1581. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESComo to WinWins if: Como wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,509 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 644.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Como to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-COM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 68.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1582. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOSassuolo to WinWins if: Como wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 23.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-SAS · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1583. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESSassuolo to WinWins if: Sassuolo wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,251 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 85.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sassuolo to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-SAS · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1584. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Como or Sassuolo wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 19.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1585. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ComovSassuoloSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,041 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 132.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24COMSAS-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1586. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NORB Leipzig to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-RBL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1587. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESRB Leipzig to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,182 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 197.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-RBL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1588. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSV Elversberg to WinWins if: RB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts79 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-SVE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 88.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1589. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSV Elversberg to WinWins if: SV Elversberg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,658 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 75.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SV Elversberg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-SVE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 12.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1590. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: RB Leipzig or SV Elversberg wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts74 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1591. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RB LeipzigvSV ElversbergBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,149 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 79.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24RBLSVE-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1592. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Augsburg to WinWins if: Union Berlin wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    51¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    52.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-FCA · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.51 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1593. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Augsburg to WinWins if: FC Augsburg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,247 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 249.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Augsburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-FCA · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.49 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1594. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: FC Augsburg or Union Berlin wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 22.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1595. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts911 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 45.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1596. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOUnion Berlin to WinWins if: FC Augsburg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 22.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-UNI · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1597. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FC AugsburgvUnion BerlinBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESUnion Berlin to WinWins if: Union Berlin wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,778 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 154.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Union Berlin to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24FCAUNI-UNI · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1598. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFSV Mainz 05 to WinWins if: Werder Bremen wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts175 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-M05 · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1599. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFSV Mainz 05 to WinWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-M05 · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1600. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOWerder Bremen to WinWins if: FSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts89 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-SVW · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1601. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESWerder Bremen to WinWins if: Werder Bremen wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,744 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 130.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-SVW · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1602. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: FSV Mainz 05 or Werder Bremen wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts128 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 21.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1603. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    FSV Mainz 05vWerder BremenBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,400 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 120.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24M05SVW-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1604. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NO1. FC Köln to WinWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts87 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-KOE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1605. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YES1. FC Köln to WinWins if: 1. FC Köln wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts91 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-KOE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1606. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOFC Schalke 04 to WinWins if: 1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts147 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 24.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-SCH · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1607. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESFC Schalke 04 to WinWins if: FC Schalke 04 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts89 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-SCH · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1608. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: 1. FC Köln or FC Schalke 04 wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts84 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1609. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1. FC KölnvFC Schalke 04Bundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts166 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 9.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24KOESCH-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1610. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOHamburger SV to WinWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts112 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 16.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-HSV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1611. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESHamburger SV to WinWins if: Hamburger SV wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,308 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 164.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-HSV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1612. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOSC Paderborn 07 to WinWins if: Hamburger SV wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts101 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-PAD · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 59.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1613. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESSC Paderborn 07 to WinWins if: SC Paderborn 07 wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,511 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 228.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-PAD · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 41.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1614. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 16.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1615. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC Paderborn 07vHamburger SVBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts814 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 45.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24PADHSV-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1616. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOArsenal to WinWins if: Everton wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts24 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-ARS · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.3 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 1¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1617. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESArsenal to WinWins if: Arsenal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts564 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 80.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-ARS · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 1¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1618. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOEverton to WinWins if: Arsenal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts231 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 46.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-EVE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.9 · mid (side) 91.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1619. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESEverton to WinWins if: Everton wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    10¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    10.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,020 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 40.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Everton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-EVE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.1 · bid 0.08 · mid (side) 9.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1620. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Arsenal or Everton wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts51 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1621. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ArsenalvEvertonPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,284 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 142.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24ARSEVE-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1622. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOCoventry to WinWins if: Fulham wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts19 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-COV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1623. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESCoventry to WinWins if: Coventry wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    33¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    34.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,122 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 141.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Coventry to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-COV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.33 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 32.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1624. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFulham to WinWins if: Coventry wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-FUL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1625. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESFulham to WinWins if: Fulham wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,150 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 195.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fulham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-FUL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1626. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Coventry or Fulham wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts664 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 110.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1627. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    CoventryvFulhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,135 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 184.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24COVFUL-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1628. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NOEspanyol to WinWins if: Racing Santander wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts297 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 42.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-ESP · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1629. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESEspanyol to WinWins if: Espanyol wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts746 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 53.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Espanyol to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-ESP · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1630. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NORacing Santander to WinWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts20 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-SAN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1631. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESRacing Santander to WinWins if: Racing Santander wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 10.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Racing Santander to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-SAN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1632. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Racing Santander or Espanyol wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts119 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 19.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1633. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Racing SantandervEspanyolLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 07:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,520 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 207.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24SANESP-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1634. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOEstac Troyes to WinWins if: Toulouse wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts125 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-EST · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1635. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESEstac Troyes to WinWins if: Estac Troyes wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts140 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-EST · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1636. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOToulouse to WinWins if: Estac Troyes wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts121 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-TFC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1637. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESToulouse to WinWins if: Toulouse wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,335 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 416.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Toulouse to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-TFC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1638. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Toulouse or Estac Troyes wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1639. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ToulousevEstac TroyesLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,086 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 154.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24TFCEST-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1640. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NONapoli to WinWins if: AS Roma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts142 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-NAP · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1641. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESNapoli to WinWins if: Napoli wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts155 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Napoli to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-NAP · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1642. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAS Roma to WinWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts339 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 48.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-ROM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1643. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESAS Roma to WinWins if: AS Roma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,263 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 105.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-ROM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1644. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Napoli or AS Roma wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts322 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 53.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1645. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    NapolivAS RomaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,615 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 95.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24NAPROM-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1646. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOChelsea to WinWins if: Tottenham wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts621 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 62.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-CFC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1647. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESChelsea to WinWins if: Chelsea wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,936 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 326.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-CFC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1648. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Chelsea or Tottenham wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts184 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 30.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1649. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,635 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 181.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1650. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOTottenham to WinWins if: Chelsea wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts171 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 28.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Tottenham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-TOT · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1651. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ChelseavTottenhamPremier League · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESTottenham to WinWins if: Tottenham wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,294 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 173.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Tottenham to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT24CFCTOT-TOT · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1652. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Valencia or Villarreal wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts333 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 55.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1653. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,130 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 59.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1654. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOValencia to WinWins if: Villarreal wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts342 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 56.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-VCF · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1655. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESValencia to WinWins if: Valencia wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts131 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 7.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Valencia to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-VCF · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1656. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVillarreal to WinWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts133 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-VIL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 52.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1657. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    ValenciavVillarrealLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESVillarreal to WinWins if: Villarreal wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,629 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 162.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Villarreal to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24VCFVIL-VIL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 48.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1658. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts79 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-BVB · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.31 · mid (side) 33.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1659. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBorussia Dortmund to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    69¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    70.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,564 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 509.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-BVB · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.69 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1660. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOEintracht Frankfurt to WinWins if: Borussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts90 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 18.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-SGE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1661. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESEintracht Frankfurt to WinWins if: Eintracht Frankfurt wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,581 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 54.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-SGE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:27 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1662. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Borussia Dortmund or Eintracht Frankfurt wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts128 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 25.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1663. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    19¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    20.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,739 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 105.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT24BVBSGE-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.19 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 17.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1664. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLazio to WinWins if: Parma wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,050 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 170.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-LAZ · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1665. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLazio to WinWins if: Lazio wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts92 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lazio to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-LAZ · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1666. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOParma to WinWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts175 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 35.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Parma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-PAR · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1667. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESParma to WinWins if: Parma wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,854 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 124.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Parma to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-PAR · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1668. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lazio or Parma wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts88 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1669. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LaziovParmaSerie A · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,169 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 158.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT24LAZPAR-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1670. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOParis FC to WinWins if: Lens wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts178 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 29.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-PAR · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1671. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESParis FC to WinWins if: Paris FC wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,356 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 197.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris FC to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-PAR · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1672. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOLens to WinWins if: Paris FC wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    53¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    54.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts0 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-RCL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.53 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1673. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESLens to WinWins if: Lens wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts152 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lens to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-RCL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.47 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1674. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lens or Paris FC wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts241 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 40.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1675. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LensvParis FCLigue 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,949 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 155.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT24RCLPAR-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:13 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1676. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts151 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 7.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-ATM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1677. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESAtletico Madrid to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,351 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 225.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-ATM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1678. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODeportivo La Coruna to WinWins if: Atletico Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 87.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-DEP · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1679. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDeportivo La Coruna to WinWins if: Deportivo La Coruna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    9¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    9.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,655 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 48.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Deportivo La Coruna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-DEP · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.09 · bid 0.07 · mid (side) 8.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1680. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Atletico Madrid or Deportivo La Coruna wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    87¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    87.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts390 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 77.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.87 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1681. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaLa Liga · Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,237 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 37.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT24ATMDEP-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.13 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1682. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOFiorentina to WinWins if: Inter wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts174 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 34.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-FIO · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 88.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1683. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESFiorentina to WinWins if: Fiorentina wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,534 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 40.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Fiorentina to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-FIO · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 11.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1684. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOInter to WinWins if: Fiorentina wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    32¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    33.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts282 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 18.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-INT · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.32 · bid 0.29 · mid (side) 30.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1685. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESInter to WinWins if: Inter wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts78 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 11.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-INT · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.68 · mid (side) 69.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1686. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Inter or Fiorentina wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts174 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 34.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1687. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    IntervFiorentinaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    18¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    19.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,661 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 61.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25INTFIO-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.18 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1688. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to WinWins if: Getafe wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    40¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    41.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts215 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 17.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-ATH · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.4 · bid 0.37 · mid (side) 38.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1689. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESAthletic Club to WinWins if: Athletic Club wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,289 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 184.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-ATH · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.6 · mid (side) 61.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1690. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOGetafe to WinWins if: Athletic Club wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Getafe to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-GET · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1691. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESGetafe to WinWins if: Getafe wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,304 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 148.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Getafe to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-GET · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.14 · mid (side) 15.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1692. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Athletic Club or Getafe wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1693. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Athletic ClubvGetafeLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,647 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 132.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25ATHGET-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1694. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOAtalanta to WinWins if: Frosinone wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    43¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    44.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts75 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-ATA · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.43 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 41.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1695. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-ATA · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.57 · mid (side) 58.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1696. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOFrosinone to WinWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts14 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-FRO · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1697. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESFrosinone to WinWins if: Frosinone wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts35 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Frosinone to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-FRO · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.16 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1698. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Atalanta or Frosinone wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts53 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1699. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AtalantavFrosinoneSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,677 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 83.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25ATAFRO-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1700. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOGenoa to WinWins if: Venezia wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-GEN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 56.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1701. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESGenoa to WinWins if: Genoa wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 200.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Genoa to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-GEN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 44.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1702. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Genoa or Venezia wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,050 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 341.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 71.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1703. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,875 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 179.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 29.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:56 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1704. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOVenezia to WinWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts13 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-VEN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1705. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    GenoavVeneziaSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESVenezia to WinWins if: Venezia wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 105.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25GENVEN-VEN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.24 · mid (side) 25.0% · spread 2¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1706. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOMonaco to WinWins if: Lille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts221 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 27.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-ASM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1707. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESMonaco to WinWins if: Monaco wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,139 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 285.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-ASM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1708. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOLille to WinWins if: Monaco wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts147 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 24.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-LIL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1709. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESLille to WinWins if: Lille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,067 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 180.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-LIL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1710. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Monaco or Lille wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 22.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1711. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MonacovLilleLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 132.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ASMLIL-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1712. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOCrystal Palace to WinWins if: Newcastle wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 18.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-CRY · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1713. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESCrystal Palace to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    39¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    40.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,159 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 263.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-CRY · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.39 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 37.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1714. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NONewcastle to WinWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts125 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 17.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-NEW · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1715. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESNewcastle to WinWins if: Newcastle wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,939 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 226.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Newcastle to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-NEW · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1716. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Crystal Palace or Newcastle wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts127 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 21.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1717. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Crystal PalacevNewcastlePremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,126 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 125.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25CRYNEW-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1718. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBrentford to WinWins if: Hull City wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    46¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    47.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts123 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-BRE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.46 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 44.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1719. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBrentford to WinWins if: Brentford wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,723 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 340.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brentford to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-BRE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.54 · mid (side) 55.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1720. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOHull City to WinWins if: Brentford wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts751 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 125.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-HUL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1721. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESHull City to WinWins if: Hull City wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts132 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Hull City to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-HUL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1722. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Hull City or Brentford wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1723. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Hull CityvBrentfordPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,140 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 157.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25HULBRE-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1724. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to WinWins if: Liverpool wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-BRI · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1725. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBrighton to WinWins if: Brighton wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,915 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 182.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-BRI · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1726. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOLiverpool to WinWins if: Brighton wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    54¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    55.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 13.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-LFC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.54 · bid 0.51 · mid (side) 52.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1727. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESLiverpool to WinWins if: Liverpool wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    49¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    50.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 211.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Liverpool to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-LFC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.49 · bid 0.46 · mid (side) 47.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1728. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Liverpool or Brighton wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts118 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 19.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1729. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LiverpoolvBrightonPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,165 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 158.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25LFCBRI-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:21 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1730. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOBournemouth to WinWins if: Manchester United wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts307 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 51.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-BOU · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1731. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESBournemouth to WinWins if: Bournemouth wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,101 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 155.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bournemouth to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-BOU · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1732. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NOManchester United to WinWins if: Bournemouth wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts129 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-MUN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1733. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESManchester United to WinWins if: Manchester United wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,974 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 330.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Manchester United to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-MUN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1734. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Manchester United or Bournemouth wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts128 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 21.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1735. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Manchester UnitedvBournemouthPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 07:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 100.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25MUNBOU-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.22 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1736. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    NOBayer Leverkusen to WinWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    61¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    62.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-LEV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.61 · bid 0.58 · mid (side) 59.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1737. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    YESBayer Leverkusen to WinWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    42¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    43.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts840 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 76.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-LEV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.42 · bid 0.39 · mid (side) 40.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1738. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim or Bayer Leverkusen wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts87 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 77.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1739. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    25¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    26.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts978 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 48.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.25 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 23.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1740. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to WinWins if: Bayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts31 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 4.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-TSG · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1741. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    1899 HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 07:30 PDT
    YES1899 Hoffenheim to WinWins if: 1899 Hoffenheim wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts730 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 56.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25TSGLEV-TSG · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1742. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOReal Betis to WinWins if: Celta Vigo wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-RBB · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1743. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESReal Betis to WinWins if: Real Betis wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,385 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 106.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Betis to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-RBB · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1744. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOCelta Vigo to WinWins if: Real Betis wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts17 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-RCC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1745. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESCelta Vigo to WinWins if: Celta Vigo wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts50 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-RCC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1746. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Celta Vigo or Real Betis wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts201 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 33.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1747. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Celta VigovReal BetisLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    28¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    29.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts50 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 2.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RCCRBB-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.28 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1748. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOAngers to WinWins if: Lorient wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts192 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 27.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-ANG · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1749. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESAngers to WinWins if: Angers wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,843 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 218.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-ANG · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1750. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOLorient to WinWins if: Angers wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    67¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    68.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-FCL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.67 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1751. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESLorient to WinWins if: Lorient wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    35¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    36.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 142.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lorient to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-FCL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.35 · bid 0.33 · mid (side) 34.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 18:28 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1752. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Angers or Lorient wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1753. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AngersvLorientLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 125.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25ANGFCL-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1754. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOAuxerre to WinWins if: Le Mans wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    57¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    58.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 15.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-AUX · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.57 · bid 0.53 · mid (side) 55.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1755. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESAuxerre to WinWins if: Auxerre wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    47¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    48.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,995 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 299.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Auxerre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-AUX · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.47 · bid 0.43 · mid (side) 45.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1756. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOLe Mans to WinWins if: Auxerre wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts438 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 73.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-MAN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1757. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESLe Mans to WinWins if: Le Mans wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,080 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 192.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Mans to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-MAN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1758. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Auxerre or Le Mans wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts124 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1759. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    AuxerrevLe MansLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    27¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    28.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,123 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 118.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25AUXMAN-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.27 · bid 0.25 · mid (side) 26.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1760. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOLe Havre to WinWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts123 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 20.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-HAC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1761. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESLe Havre to WinWins if: Le Havre wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 4.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Le Havre to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-HAC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.17 · mid (side) 18.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1762. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOMarseille to WinWins if: Le Havre wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    41¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    42.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts129 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 10.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-OLM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.41 · bid 0.38 · mid (side) 39.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1763. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESMarseille to WinWins if: Marseille wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    62¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    63.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,121 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 265.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Marseille to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-OLM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.62 · bid 0.59 · mid (side) 60.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1764. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Marseille or Le Havre wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts152 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 25.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1765. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    MarseillevLe HavreLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 87.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25OLMHAC-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1766. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NOStrasbourg to WinWins if: Rennes wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts185 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 30.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-RCS · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 79.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1767. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESStrasbourg to WinWins if: Strasbourg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts116 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Strasbourg to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-RCS · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 21.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1768. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NORennes to WinWins if: Strasbourg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    44¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    45.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-REN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.44 · bid 0.4 · mid (side) 42.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1769. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESRennes to WinWins if: Rennes wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    60¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    61.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts116 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Rennes to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-REN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.6 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 58.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1770. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Rennes or Strasbourg wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    80¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    81.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts137 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 22.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.8 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1771. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    RennesvStrasbourgLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 09:15 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    23¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    24.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts137 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 6.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25RENRCS-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.23 · bid 0.2 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1772. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOLeeds to WinWins if: Sunderland wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts134 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 19.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-LEE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.62 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1773. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESLeeds to WinWins if: Leeds wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    38¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    39.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,798 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 215.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Leeds to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-LEE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.38 · bid 0.35 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1774. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOSunderland to WinWins if: Leeds wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-SUN · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1775. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESSunderland to WinWins if: Sunderland wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    36¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    37.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,138 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 164.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sunderland to win (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-SUN · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.36 · bid 0.34 · mid (side) 35.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1776. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Sunderland or Leeds wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts139 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 23.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1777. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SunderlandvLeedsPremier League · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 117.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXEPLGAME-26OCT25SUNLEE-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.27 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1778. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOBayern München to WinWins if: SC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    30¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    31.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts54 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-BMU · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.3 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 28.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1779. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESBayern München to WinWins if: Bayern München wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,726 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 454.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Bayern München to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-BMU · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 72.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1780. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOSC Freiburg to WinWins if: Bayern München wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts81 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 16.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-SCF · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1781. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESSC Freiburg to WinWins if: SC Freiburg wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    15¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    15.9%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,110 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 94.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-SCF · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.15 · bid 0.1 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 5¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1782. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: SC Freiburg or Bayern München wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 3.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.84 · mid (side) 86.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1783. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SC FreiburgvBayern MünchenBundesliga · Sun 25 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    16¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    17.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,321 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 42.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT25SCFBMU-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.16 · bid 0.12 · mid (side) 14.0% · spread 4¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1784. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    NOJuventus to WinWins if: Lecce wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    34¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    35.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts122 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 8.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-JUV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.34 · bid 0.32 · mid (side) 33.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1785. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    YESJuventus to WinWins if: Juventus wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts100 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 14.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-JUV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1786. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    NOLecce to WinWins if: Juventus wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    91¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    91.6%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts151 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 30.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-LEC · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.91 · bid 0.87 · mid (side) 89.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1787. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    YESLecce to WinWins if: Lecce wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    13¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    13.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,307 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 60.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lecce to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-LEC · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.13 · bid 0.09 · mid (side) 11.0% · spread 4¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1788. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Lecce or Juventus wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts239 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 39.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 78.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1789. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    LeccevJuventusSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 10:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,940 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 97.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25LECJUV-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 21.5% · spread 5¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1790. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    NOLevante to WinWins if: Real Sociedad wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-LEV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 79.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1791. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    YESLevante to WinWins if: Levante wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,869 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 130.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-LEV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.19 · mid (side) 20.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1792. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    NOReal Sociedad to WinWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    45¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    46.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-RSO · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.45 · bid 0.42 · mid (side) 43.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1793. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    YESReal Sociedad to WinWins if: Real Sociedad wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts101 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-RSO · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.55 · mid (side) 56.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1794. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Real Sociedad or Levante wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts201 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 33.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1795. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Real SociedadvLevanteLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 10:30 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,386 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 69.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25RSOLEV-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 15:17 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1796. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NOAC Milan to WinWins if: Udinese wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    48¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    49.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts57 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 5.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-ACM · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.48 · bid 0.45 · mid (side) 46.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1797. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESAC Milan to WinWins if: AC Milan wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    55¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    56.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,880 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 320.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-ACM · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.55 · bid 0.52 · mid (side) 53.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1798. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Udinese or AC Milan wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts64 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 10.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1799. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    26¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    27.4%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 105.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.26 · bid 0.23 · mid (side) 24.5% · spread 3¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1800. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NOUdinese to WinWins if: AC Milan wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts75 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 12.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-UDI · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.78 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1801. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    UdinesevAC MilanSerie A · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESUdinese to WinWins if: Udinese wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    22¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    23.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,000 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 90.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Udinese to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT25UDIACM-UDI · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.22 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 20.0% · spread 4¢ · book 98% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1802. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NOLyon to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts143 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 28.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-OL · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1803. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESLyon to WinWins if: Lyon wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    14¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    14.9%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts5,234 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 149.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Lyon to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-OL · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.14 · bid 0.11 · mid (side) 12.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1804. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NOParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Lyon wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    31¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    32.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts3,102 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 193.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-PSG · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.31 · bid 0.28 · mid (side) 29.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1805. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESParis Saint Germain to WinWins if: Paris Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts808 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 134.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-PSG · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1806. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Paris Saint Germain or Lyon wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.83 · mid (side) 84.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1807. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    Paris Saint GermainvLyonLigue 1 · Sun 25 Oct, 12:45 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    17¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    18.0%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts4,583 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 158.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT25PSGOL-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.17 · bid 0.15 · mid (side) 16.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1808. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NOBarcelona to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    37¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    38.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts16 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 1.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-BAR · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.37 · bid 0.36 · mid (side) 36.5% · spread 1¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1809. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESBarcelona to WinWins if: Barcelona wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,662 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 380.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Barcelona to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-BAR · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1810. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NOReal Madrid to WinWins if: Barcelona wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-RMA · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1811. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESReal Madrid to WinWins if: Real Madrid wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    21¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    22.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,445 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 106.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-RMA · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.21 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.5% · spread 3¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1812. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Barcelona or Real Madrid wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.0% · spread 2¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1813. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    BarcelonavReal MadridLa Liga · Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    20¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    21.1%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts2,240 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 89.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT25BARRMA-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.2 · bid 0.18 · mid (side) 19.0% · spread 2¢ · book 102% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1814. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NOOsasuna to WinWins if: Sevilla wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-OSA · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1815. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESOsasuna to WinWins if: Osasuna wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    24¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    25.3%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts868 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 43.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Osasuna to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-OSA · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.24 · bid 0.21 · mid (side) 22.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1816. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to WinWins if: Osasuna wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    52¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    53.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-SEV · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.52 · bid 0.5 · mid (side) 51.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1817. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESSevilla to WinWins if: Sevilla wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    50¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    51.8%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts286 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 28.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-SEV · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.5 · bid 0.48 · mid (side) 49.0% · spread 2¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1818. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; not enough available contracts for the stake; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    NODrawWins if: Sevilla or Osasuna wins: one of the two teams must win
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1 resting (fewer than the stake needs)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 0.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-TIE · NO
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 72.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

  1819. Not actionable now: Got%OnIt has no frozen estimate for this side; limited model evidence.

    SevillavOsasunaLa Liga · Mon 26 Oct, 13:00 PDT
    YESDrawWins if: The match is drawn after 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    —
    Kalshi price
    29¢
    per contract
    Break-even chance
    30.5%
    Edge after calibration
    limited
    no conservative chance for this position
    Kelly fraction
    —
    Estimated return
    —
    not estimated
    Conservative estimate
    not available: limited calibration evidence

    No frozen estimate for this side

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Not in Build: no frozen estimate
    • FreshnessPrice updated 24 min ago
    • Available contracts1,132 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencelow · no calibration measurement · price 24 min old · 66.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: no documented measurement for this position; forward sample unknown

    There is no Kalshi mid-price to compare the model against.Review match →

    Cannot track on paper. There is no frozen estimate to record.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Draw (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT26SEVOSA-TIE · YES
    Model
    no frozen estimate
    Calibration
    no frozen model probability
    Fee
    not computed
    Build
    no model probability (no forward snapshot for fixture and model)
    Quote
    ask 0.29 · bid 0.26 · mid (side) 27.5% · spread 3¢ · book 99% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)
Definitions and formulas
Got%OnIt chance
the frozen model probability of the side, made from finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries.
Kalshi price
the side’s own executable ask in cents per contract (NO at the NO ask = 1 − YES bid), never a mid-price; the mid-price is used only for the disagreement sentence.
Available contracts
the whole contracts the stake buys at the ask (stake ÷ ask, rounded down); the resting figure is the size at the best level when the price was observed.
Break-even chance
(contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts.
Estimated return
contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (contracts × ask + fee): a hypothetical research figure under the frozen model probability.
Conservative estimate
the same figure at the Got%OnIt chance minus the documented over-statement of this kind of position and one standard error (A1 audit; Phase 8A for the Champions League); markets without a documented measurement carry none.
Edge after calibration
conservative chance − break-even chance, in percentage points. The default order. Scale-free: a 5-point gap counts the same at 5¢ and at 95¢, where the dollar figure would differ twenty-fold. Rows without a conservative chance read “limited” and sort last.
Kelly fraction
(p·b − q) ÷ b with p the conservative chance, q = 1 − p and b the net odds at the break-even price after the fee; zero at break-even, capped at 25 %. A sizing reference, not advice.
Quote quality gate
the same rule as Build and the Matches leaders: bid/ask spread at most 15¢ and the outcome set’s mid-prices forming a book between 90% and 110%. A row that fails it is never actionable.
Aligned
every criterion at once: Got%OnIt chance at least 70%; conservative probability above the fee-inclusive break-even (edge in points > 0); quote fresh: recent and on an open, active market; quote quality: bid/ask spread at most 15¢ and a book between 90% and 110%; resting contracts at the ask cover the stake; evidence depth ok: no thin-history or cold-start flag on the snapshot; market evaluated or model-supported (never limited evidence); not refused by Build's competition policy.
Fees
Kalshi's published general schedule: fees = round up to the cent of 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) on a trade that takes liquidity (0.0175 for resting orders where the series charges maker fees). Retrieved from public descriptions of the schedule on 2026-10-11; never reconciled with a real fill because none exists. Verify at kalshi.com/fee-schedule before relying on it.
Calibration source
research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

1,912 sides of 956 contracts on upcoming matches · 1621 with figures. A positive expected net is the model disagreeing with the market after fees; on every timestamped comparison available the market has been at least as accurate as the model (A1 §7), so none of these figures is a validated edge. Positions selected because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than their stated probability (selection effect; Records keeps the running figure); the sample is too small to size, so it is a caution, not a subtraction. Prices and sizes are the best resting level at observation time; depth beyond it and price movement before an order are not modelled. Nothing is placed by this application; a paper position records a hypothetical trade at these figures for later evaluation. Data as of 22:05.