Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Bodo/GlimtvBorussia Dortmund

Bodo/Glimt
31%
Draw
23%
Borussia Dortmund
46%

Got%OnIt gives Borussia Dortmund a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.9 for Borussia Dortmund.
  • Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 a game.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bodo/Glimt are 36th of 36 after 1 games; Borussia Dortmund are 12th.
  • Bodo/Glimt have won 0 and lost 1; Borussia Dortmund have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Bodo/Glimt

  • L0–5at Bayern München10 Sept
  • L0–3at Sporting CP17 Mar
  • W3–0v Sporting CP11 Mar
  • W2–1at Inter24 Feb
  • W3–1v Inter18 Feb
  • W2–1at Atletico Madrid28 Jan

Borussia Dortmund

  • D2–2v Werder Bremen9 Oct
  • W1–0at VfB Stuttgart19 Sept
  • W3–0v SC Paderborn 0712 Sept
  • W3–2v Villarreal8 Sept
  • W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim5 Sept
  • W2–0v Hamburger SV29 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%44.0%+13.4 pts
Draw22.9%21.0%−2.0 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%35.0%−11.4 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.49 and 1.86). Bodo/Glimt 1.49 · Borussia Dortmund 1.86 · total 3.35 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Bodo/Glimt–Borussia Dortmund)

  1. 1–110.0%
  2. 1–29.1%
  3. 2–17.2%
  4. 2–26.7%
  5. 0–16.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Bodo/Glimt

Expected goals
1.49
Scoring vs average
×0.78
Conceding vs average
×1.41

Borussia Dortmund

Expected goals
1.86
Scoring vs average
×1.41
Conceding vs average
×0.78
  • Bodo/Glimt (home): expected to score ×0.78 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.41 the average.
  • Borussia Dortmund (away): expected to score ×1.41 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.78 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Bodo/Glimt
37 matches (32 with xG)
Borussia Dortmund
144 matches (144 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home30.7%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 91 matches (this competition); conservative 25.8%
1x2:draw22.9%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 15.7%
1x2:away46.4%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 59 matches (this competition); conservative 39.9%
double_chance:1x53.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x269.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1277.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes65.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no34.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.596.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.53.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.585.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.515.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.565.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.535.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.543.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.557.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.524.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.575.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.512.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.587.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.577.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.522.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.543.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.556.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.518.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.581.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.593.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.584.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.515.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.555.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.544.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.528.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.571.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.511.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.588.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.55.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.594.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.514.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.585.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.530.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.569.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.553.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.546.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.574.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.525.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.588.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.511.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home39.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away60.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.24 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7776378754116242053 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.17 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%30.9% ± 0.1+0.23 pts
Draw22.9%22.4% ± 0.1−0.51 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%46.7% ± 0.2+0.28 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.24 pts (total_goals:over:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Bodo/Glimt
15.6% ± 0.1 (exact 15.5%)
Borussia Dortmund
22.5% ± 0.1 (exact 22.6%)

Goal difference (Bodo/Glimt minus Borussia Dortmund)

  1. <-50.4% ± 0.0
  2. -51.0% ± 0.0
  3. -43.0% ± 0.1
  4. -37.2% ± 0.1
  5. -213.9% ± 0.1
  6. -121.1% ± 0.1
  7. 022.4% ± 0.1
  8. 116.6% ± 0.1
  9. 29.0% ± 0.1
  10. 33.6% ± 0.1
  11. 41.2% ± 0.0
  12. 50.3% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Borussia Dortmund9.6% ± 0.110.0%
Bodo/Glimt 1–2 Borussia Dortmund9.2% ± 0.19.1%
Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Borussia Dortmund7.3% ± 0.17.2%
Bodo/Glimt 2–2 Borussia Dortmund6.8% ± 0.16.7%
Bodo/Glimt 0–1 Borussia Dortmund6.6% ± 0.16.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Bodo/Glimt
mean 1.49 · variance 1.48 · ± 0.004
Borussia Dortmund
mean 1.86 · variance 1.86 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move borussia dortmund win by +1.5 pts (to 47.9%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Bodo/Glimt and +0.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%29.6%−1.0 pts
Draw22.9%22.5%−0.5 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%47.9%+1.5 pts
Expected goals1.49 – 1.861.43 – 1.87−0.05 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 87 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Bodo/Glimt

Attack ×0.96 band 0.95–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 7.3% of goals share out

  • H. Evjen M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
  • O. L. Bjortuft D Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 4.2% · effect −4.2% · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Kitolano M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Mikkelsen F Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Riisnaes M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • I. Sjong G Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Haikin)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Borussia Dortmund

Attack ×0.97 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 5.4% of goals share out

  • E. Can D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.9% · effect −2.9% REPORTED
  • G. Konstantelias M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.5% · effect −1.5% REPORTED
  • J. Ryerson M Questionable (Ribs Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Chukwuemeka M Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 1.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mane D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Lerma Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: K. KaretsasCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Kobel)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move borussia dortmund win by +1.0 pts (to 47.4%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Bodo/Glimt and +0.01 for Borussia Dortmund.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%30.2%−0.4 pts
Draw22.9%22.4%−0.5 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%47.4%+1.0 pts
Expected goals1.49 – 1.861.46 – 1.87−0.02 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 87 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Bodo/Glimt rate ×0.98 band 0.76–1.22

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06363636363636371 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund rate ×1.01 band 0.80–1.33

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06363636363636371 · contribution -0.001 (-0.006 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move borussia dortmund win by +2.2 pts (to 48.6%). Expected goals move −0.08 for Bodo/Glimt and +0.01 for Borussia Dortmund.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%29.0%−1.7 pts
Draw22.9%22.5%−0.5 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%48.6%+2.2 pts
Expected goals1.49 – 1.861.41 – 1.88−0.08 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 87 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Bodo/Glimt

Attack ×0.96 band 0.95–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 7.3% of goals share out

  • H. Evjen M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
  • O. L. Bjortuft D Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 4.2% · effect −4.2% · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Kitolano M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Mikkelsen F Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Riisnaes M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • I. Sjong G Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Haikin)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Borussia Dortmund

Attack ×0.97 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 5.4% of goals share out

  • E. Can D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.9% · effect −2.9% REPORTED
  • G. Konstantelias M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.5% · effect −1.5% REPORTED
  • J. Ryerson M Questionable (Ribs Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Chukwuemeka M Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 1.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mane D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Lerma Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: K. KaretsasCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Kobel)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Bodo/Glimt rate ×0.98 band 0.76–1.22

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06363636363636371 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund rate ×1.01 band 0.80–1.33

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06363636363636371 · contribution -0.001 (-0.006 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Bodo/Glimt win30.7%38.5%+7.8 pts
Draw22.9%21.1%−1.9 pts
Borussia Dortmund win46.4%40.5%−5.9 pts
Expected goals—1.91 – 1.96+0.43 / +0.10

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 200 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)S. Guirassy 39% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Bodo/Glimt

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 78% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
O. Blomberg F20.8% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.002100%
J. Hauge F20.3% ± 0.12.2% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00278%
S. Fet M19.3% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.001100%
A. Helmersen F11.2% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00155%
P. Berg M7.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.001100%
F. Bjorkan D7.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.001100%
S. Auklend M5.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00175%
F. Sjovold D5.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%

Borussia Dortmund

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 77% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. Guirassy F39.4% ± 0.29.0% ± 0.10.50 ± 0.00293%
M. Beier F17.2% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00174%
D. Svensson M11.7% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00197%
N. Schlotterbeck D11.6% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00161%
F. Nmecha F10.9% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00183%
F. Silva F7.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00122%
R. Bensebaini D4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.0015%
W. Anton D4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%

Run 960 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 455, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Borussia Dortmund)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bodo/Glimt)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBodo/Glimt 3 absent regulars · Borussia Dortmund 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:12 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bodo/Glimt

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Napoli +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Napoli+6 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 17 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Gundersen (D) — reason unknown; H. Evjen (M) — reason unknown; K. Hogh (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bodo/Glimt: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
F. Bjørkan · regularD00—
A. HelmersenF00—
O. Bjørtuft · regularD000' Norway, 13 d before; 0' Norway, 10 d before
P. Berg · regularM0870' Norway, 13 d before; 87' Norway, 10 d before
O. Didrik Blomberg · regularF000' Norway, 13 d before; 0' Norway, 10 d before
S. Fet · regularM00—
S. AuklendF00—
N. Haikin · regularG00—
J. KitolanoM00—
V. NielsenD00—
F. Sjøvold · regularD000' Norway, 13 d before; 0' Norway, 10 d before

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 87 minutes — P. Berg (0' Norway, 13 d before; 87' Norway, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund

5 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A Union Berlin +2.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLA VfB StuttgartW 1–0counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctBLH Werder BremenD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctBLA Union Berlin+2.8 d
  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Sabah FA+5.9 d
  • Sat 24 OctBLH Eintracht Frankfurt+9.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH Werder Bremen+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Ryerson (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.3 CONFIRMED

Borussia Dortmund: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. NwaneriM6363—
S. Guirassy · regularF9090—
M. Beier · regularM9090—
D. Svensson · regularM901260' Sweden, 12 d before; 36' Sweden, 9 d before
F. Nmecha · regularM9090—
J. Bellingham · regularM7272—
M. SabitzerM7272—
N. SchlotterbeckD9090—
W. Anton · regularD9027090' Germany, 13 d before; 90' Germany, 10 d before
Kouakou Joane Gadou · regularD9090—
G. Kobel · regularG9018090' Switzerland, 11 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 581 minutes — D. Svensson (0' Sweden, 12 d before; 36' Sweden, 9 d before); W. Anton (90' Germany, 13 d before; 90' Germany, 10 d before); K. Karetsas (83' Greece, 13 d before; 44' Greece, 10 d before); J. Veerman (90' Netherlands, 13 d before; 58' Netherlands, 10 d before); G. Kobel (90' Switzerland, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Bodo/Glimt

  • A. Mikkelsen · injury / absence: Groin Injury · Missing Fixture
  • H. Evjen · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • I. Sjong · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Kitolano · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Riisnaes · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • O. L. Bjortuft · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture

Borussia Dortmund

  • C. Chukwuemeka · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • E. Can · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • F. Mane · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • G. Konstantelias · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Lerma · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • J. Ryerson · injury / absence: Ribs Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bodo/Glimt31%30%29%
Draw23%24%23%
Borussia Dortmund46%46%48%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 21 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bodo/Glimt

  • Bodo/Glimt: 10 finished matches (6 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.1 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 100%.
  • L0–5at Bayern München10 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0v NEC Nijmegen25 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W3–1at NEC Nijmegen19 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D2–2v Union St. Gilloise11 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D3–3at Union St. Gilloise4 Aug · not in model evidence
  • L0–3at Sporting CP17 Mar · in model evidence

Borussia Dortmund

  • Borussia Dortmund: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.1 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–2v Villarreal8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Atalanta25 Feb · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Atalanta17 Feb · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Inter28 Jan · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Tottenham20 Jan · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Bodo/Glimt10 Dec · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal11%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more12%
Over 1.585%
Over 2.565%
Over 3.543%
Both teams score66%

Bodo/Glimt

Expected goals1.49
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet16%

Borussia Dortmund

Expected goals1.86
Scores at least once84%
Scores 2 or more56%
Clean sheet23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability12 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

12 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 4 h ago.

Bodo/Glimt

  • A. MikkelsenOutGroin Injury
  • H. EvjenOutKnee Injury
  • I. SjongOutInjury
  • J. KitolanoOutKnee Injury
  • M. RiisnaesOutKnee Injury
  • O. L. BjortuftOutRed Card

Borussia Dortmund

  • C. ChukwuemekaDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • E. CanOutKnee Injury
  • F. ManeDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • G. KonstanteliasOutKnee Injury
  • J. LermaDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • J. RyersonDoubtfulRibs Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season36th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bodo/Glimt

36th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 0, conceded 5

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 0, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Borussia Dortmund

12th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 2

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Bodo/Glimt to win30.7%30.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Draw22.9%22.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Borussia Dortmund to win46.4%46.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Double chance
Bodo/Glimt or draw limited evidence53.6%53.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢
Borussia Dortmund or draw limited evidence69.3%69.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Not a draw limited evidence77.1%77.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Draw no bet
Bodo/Glimt to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence39.8%39.8% ± 0.2no
Borussia Dortmund to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence60.2%60.2% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence96.2%96.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence3.8%3.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 4¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence85.0%84.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 89¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence15.0%15.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 13¢
Over 2.5 goals in total65.0%65.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 2.5 goals in total35.0%34.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 31¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence43.0%43.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 49¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence57.0%56.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence24.6%24.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence75.4%75.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence12.3%12.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence87.7%87.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence65.6%65.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 71¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence34.4%34.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 32¢
Team goals
Bodo/Glimt over 0.5 goals limited evidence77.4%77.5% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt under 0.5 goals limited evidence22.6%22.5% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt over 1.5 goals limited evidence43.7%43.9% ± 0.2no
Bodo/Glimt under 1.5 goals limited evidence56.3%56.1% ± 0.2no
Bodo/Glimt over 2.5 goals limited evidence18.7%18.8% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt under 2.5 goals limited evidence81.3%81.2% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.4%6.4% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.6%93.6% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 goals limited evidence84.5%84.4% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 goals limited evidence15.5%15.6% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals limited evidence55.6%55.6% ± 0.2no
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals limited evidence44.4%44.4% ± 0.2no
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals limited evidence28.6%28.7% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals limited evidence71.4%71.3% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals limited evidence11.9%11.9% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals limited evidence88.1%88.1% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Bodo/Glimt to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.3%5.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Bodo/Glimt to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.3%14.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Bodo/Glimt to win by 1 or more limited evidence30.7%30.9% ± 0.1no
Bodo/Glimt not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.6%53.3% ± 0.2no
Bodo/Glimt not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence74.3%74.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Bodo/Glimt not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence88.3%88.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Borussia Dortmund to win by 3 or more limited evidence11.7%11.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Borussia Dortmund to win by 2 or more limited evidence25.7%25.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Borussia Dortmund to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.4%46.7% ± 0.2no
Borussia Dortmund not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence69.3%69.1% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.7%85.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Borussia Dortmund not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.7%94.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Clean sheet
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet grid15.5%15.6% ± 0.1no
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet grid22.6%22.5% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—22.4% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt by exactly 1—16.6% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt by exactly 2—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt by exactly 3—3.6% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt by exactly 4—1.2% ± 0.0not listed
Bodo/Glimt by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Borussia Dortmund by exactly 1—21.1% ± 0.1not listed
Borussia Dortmund by exactly 2—13.9% ± 0.1not listed
Borussia Dortmund by exactly 3—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
Borussia Dortmund by exactly 4—3.0% ± 0.1not listed
Borussia Dortmund by exactly 5—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Bodo/Glimt by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Borussia Dortmund by 6 or more—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Borussia Dortmund—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt 1–2 Borussia Dortmund—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Borussia Dortmund—7.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt 2–2 Borussia Dortmund—6.8% ± 0.1not listed
Bodo/Glimt 0–1 Borussia Dortmund—6.6% ± 0.1not listed

Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Bodo/Glimt to win (90 minutes)
31%
29%
YES on Bodo/Glimt to WinBodo/Glimt wins in 90 minutes
31%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,368 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes)
46%
48%
YES on Borussia Dortmund to WinBorussia Dortmund wins in 90 minutes
46%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 94,381 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 758 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBodo/Glimt or Borussia Dortmund wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%78¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,268 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Borussia Dortmund to WinBodo/Glimt wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
54%53¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,431 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Bodo/Glimt to WinBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
69%72¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 18,864 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%98¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 384 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%4¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,373 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
85%
88%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
85%89¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,899 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
15%13¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 657 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
65%
70%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
65%71¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,375 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
35%31¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
43%
49%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
43%49¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
57%52¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,163 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
29%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
25%30¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 950 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
75%72¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,185 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
12%17¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,366 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
88%86¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,395 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
66%
70%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
66%71¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,725 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
34%32¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,365 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Winning margin
Bodo/Glimt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Bodo/Glimt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBodo/Glimt wins by 2 goals or more
14%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Bodo/Glimt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Bodo/Glimt wins by 1 goal · Bodo/Glimt not by 2+ goals
86%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 911 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Bodo/Glimt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Bodo/Glimt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBodo/Glimt wins by 3 goals or more
5%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,655 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Bodo/Glimt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins or the match is drawn, or Bodo/Glimt wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bodo/Glimt not by 3+ goals
95%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 385 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
27%
Limited evidence
YES on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or more
26%28¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 873 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBodo/Glimt wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 1 goal · Borussia Dortmund not by 2+ goals
74%74¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 21 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBorussia Dortmund wins by 3 goals or more
12%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Borussia Dortmund to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBodo/Glimt wins or the match is drawn, or Borussia Dortmund wins by 2 goals or fewer · Borussia Dortmund not by 3+ goals
88%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 385 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 30.7% · draw 22.9% · away 46.4%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.86
Bodo/Glimt eligible matches
37 (32 with xG)
Borussia Dortmund eligible matches
144 (144 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Bodo/GlimtOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 SeptBayern Münchenaway0–5—L
17 MarSporting CPaway0–3—L
11 MarSporting CPhome3–02.78–0.61W
24 FebInteraway2–11.74–2.29W
18 FebInterhome3–11.19–1.56W
28 JanAtletico Madridaway2–11.88–2.18W
Borussia DortmundOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctWerder Bremenhome2–22.50–1.19D
19 SeptVfB Stuttgartaway1–01.34–0.87W
12 SeptSC Paderborn 07home3–01.76–0.49W
8 SeptVillarrealhome3–22.83–1.34W
5 Sept1899 Hoffenheimaway3–22.02–1.17W
29 AugHamburger SVhome2–01.53–0.91W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14BOGBVB-BTTS
65.6%69.5%—0.68 / 0.710.329,725 / 1,365Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bodo/Glimt to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BOG
30.7%29.0%+1.7 pts0.28 / 0.300.7224,368 / 18,864Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Borussia Dortmund to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-BVB
46.4%47.5%−1.1 pts0.47 / 0.480.5394,381 / 8,431Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14BOGBVB-TIE
22.9%22.5%+0.4 pts0.22 / 0.230.78758 / 11,268Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bodo/Glimt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14BOGBVB-BOG2
14.3%13.5%—0.13 / 0.140.87200 / 911Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bodo/Glimt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14BOGBVB-BOG3
5.3%6.0%—0.05 / 0.070.952,655 / 385Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14BOGBVB-BVB2
25.7%27.0%—0.26 / 0.280.74873 / 21Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Borussia Dortmund to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14BOGBVB-BVB3
11.7%13.0%—0.12 / 0.140.88850 / 385Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-1
96.2%97.0%—0.96 / 0.980.04384 / 2,373Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-2
85.0%88.0%—0.87 / 0.890.131,899 / 657Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-3
65.0%70.0%—0.69 / 0.710.311,375 / 676Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-4
43.0%48.5%—0.48 / 0.490.521 / 2,163Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-5
24.6%29.0%—0.28 / 0.300.72950 / 2,185Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14BOGBVB-6
12.3%15.5%—0.14 / 0.170.862,366 / 1,395Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:12:10.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home30.0%29.2% – 31.1%31.5%3.171030.7%+0.7 pts
1x2:draw24.0%23.1% – 25.1%25.0%4.001022.9%−1.0 pts
1x2:away46.0%43.8% – 47.2%48.8%2.051046.4%+0.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:00 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.567.5%66.4% – 69.3%72.5%1.387——
total_goals:under:2.532.5%30.7% – 33.6%33.9%2.957——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:04 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.08 · draw 4.00 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.00 · draw 3.90 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 4.19 · home 3.2611/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOMatch winneraway 2.02 · draw 3.53 · home 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
William HillMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.80 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Match winneraway 2.00 · draw 4.00 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 4.00 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.14 · draw 4.11 · home 3.2811/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.07 · draw 4.00 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.00 · draw 4.00 · home 3.1311/10/2026, 09:31:0010/10/2026, 19:15:05
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.41 · under 2.5 3.0111/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.42 · under 2.5 2.9511/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 2.7311/10/2026, 09:31:0410/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:12:10.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:00 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Bodo/Glimtok11/10/2026, 01:39:31 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Borussia Dortmundok11/10/2026, 01:39:28 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home30.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw22.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away46.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x53.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x269.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1277.1%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes65.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no34.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.585.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.515.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.565.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.535.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.543.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.557.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.524.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.575.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.512.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.587.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.543.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.556.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.584.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.515.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.555.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.544.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.528.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.571.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.511.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.588.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.55.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.594.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.514.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.585.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.530.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.569.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.553.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.546.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.574.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.525.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.588.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.511.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home39.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away60.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 455 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:12:10