UEFA Champions League·Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Paris Saint GermainvBarcelona

Paris Saint Germain

51%

Draw

21%

Barcelona

28%

Got%OnIt gives Paris Saint Germain a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Estimate available
Evidence: tested on past results
Usable Kalshi price

Worth knowing: Injury information unavailable, so absences are unknown (not zero).

Core Every figure on this page is Core's: results and expected goals only. Compare the modes.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only past matches from 8 competitions (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League): the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
Matches behind the estimate: Paris Saint Germain 153, Barcelona 159 (across 8 competitions).
On these inputs the model expects about 2.3 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.7 for Barcelona.
Paris Saint Germain won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.
Barcelona won 6 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 4.5 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Injury information unavailable, so absences are unknown (not zero).
Core does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself, or switch to Deep Dive, which applies it with a stated band.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Paris Saint Germain are 1st of 36 after 1 games; Barcelona are 3rd.
Paris Saint Germain have won 1 and lost 0; Barcelona have won 1 and lost 0.

Recent form descriptive · from the matches the model used

Paris Saint Germain

6W 2D 2L in the last 10 (2.00 points a match) · goals 21–11 · xG 14.7–10.6 (8 of 10 with xG) · 4 wins in a row

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L, goals 13–5, xG 7.8–3.2.

This season's 7 matches carry 11 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 8 %; effective sample ≈ 113 of 153 matches.

Barcelona

9W 0D 1L in the last 10 (2.70 points a match) · goals 40–11 · xG 32.0–9.2 (9 of 10 with xG) · 9 wins in a row

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L, goals 22–6, xG 14.7–4.9.

This season's 9 matches carry 14 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 8 %; effective sample ≈ 116 of 159 matches.

Core applies no separate form or momentum term: these matches shape its strength estimate only through the weights above (half-life 365 days, refit at every snapshot).

Recent matches the model used

Paris Saint Germain

W3–1v Le Mans10 Oct
W2–1at Marseille20 Sept
W1–0at Stade Brestois 2913 Sept
W6–1v Slovan Bratislava9 Sept
L1–2v Monaco4 Sept
D2–2at Lille28 Aug

Barcelona

W3–0v Getafe10 Oct
W3–1at Sevilla19 Sept
W7–2v Racing Santander16 Sept
W4–2at Levante13 Sept
W5–1v Feyenoord9 Sept
W5–0at Valencia6 Sept

Core does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh; Deep Dive (toggle above) applies the availability and schedule facts as adjustments.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 905, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleMon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-20T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionleague tableMon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Paris Saint Germain)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Barcelona)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageMon 12 Oct, 22:58 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 3.0 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 60%.

W6–1v Slovan Bratislava9 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1v Arsenal30 May · not in model evidence
D1–1at Bayern München6 May · in model evidence
W5–4v Bayern München28 Apr · in model evidence
W2–0at Liverpool14 Apr · in model evidence
W2–0v Liverpool8 Apr · in model evidence

Barcelona

Barcelona: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.8 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.

W5–1v Feyenoord9 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Atletico Madrid14 Apr · in model evidence
L0–2v Atletico Madrid8 Apr · in model evidence
W7–2v Newcastle18 Mar · in model evidence
D1–1at Newcastle10 Mar · in model evidence
W4–1v FC Copenhagen28 Jan · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	2%
1 goal	7%
2 goals	15%
3 goals	20%
4 goals	20%
5 goals	15%
6 or more	20%
Over 1.5	90%
Over 2.5	75%
Over 3.5	55%
Both teams score	73%

Paris Saint Germain

Expected goals	2.26
Scores at least once	90%
Scores 2 or more	66%
Clean sheet	19%

Barcelona

Expected goals	1.66
Scores at least once	81%
Scores 2 or more	50%
Clean sheet	10%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent: Got%OnIt's estimate, the bookmaker estimate and the Kalshi reference price. Agreement between them is not proof of accuracy.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Paris Saint Germain	51%	—	32%
Draw	21%	—	20%
Barcelona	28%	—	57%

No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 24 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Barcelona a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (28% vs 57%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Kalshi market choices3 Kalshi contracts · 115 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 115 from the grid · 6 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Core · frozen headline snapshot The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result

Paris Saint Germain to win51.2%50.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢

Draw20.5%20.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢

Barcelona to win28.3%28.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 61¢

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw limited evidence71.7%71.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 46¢

Barcelona or draw limited evidence48.8%49.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 75¢

Not a draw limited evidence79.5%79.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence64.4%64.2% ± 0.2no

Barcelona to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence35.6%35.8% ± 0.2no

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence97.8%97.7% ± 0.0no

Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence2.2%2.3% ± 0.0no

Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence90.4%90.5% ± 0.1no

Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence9.6%9.5% ± 0.1no

Over 2.5 goals in total75.0%74.9% ± 0.1no

Under 2.5 goals in total25.0%25.1% ± 0.1no

Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence55.1%55.1% ± 0.2no

Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence44.9%44.9% ± 0.2no

Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence35.6%35.7% ± 0.2no

Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence64.4%64.3% ± 0.2no

Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence20.3%20.3% ± 0.1no

Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence79.7%79.7% ± 0.1no

Both teams to score

Both teams to score limited evidence72.8%72.9% ± 0.1no

At least one team fails to score limited evidence27.2%27.1% ± 0.1no

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals limited evidence89.5%89.5% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals limited evidence10.5%10.5% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals limited evidence65.9%65.9% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals limited evidence34.1%34.1% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals limited evidence39.3%39.2% ± 0.2no

Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals limited evidence60.7%60.8% ± 0.2no

Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals limited evidence19.2%19.3% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals limited evidence80.8%80.7% ± 0.1no

Barcelona over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.1%81.2% ± 0.1no

Barcelona under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.9%18.8% ± 0.1no

Barcelona over 1.5 goals limited evidence49.5%49.7% ± 0.2no

Barcelona under 1.5 goals limited evidence50.5%50.3% ± 0.2no

Barcelona over 2.5 goals limited evidence23.3%23.4% ± 0.1no

Barcelona under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.7%76.6% ± 0.1no

Barcelona over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.8%8.8% ± 0.1no

Barcelona under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.2%91.2% ± 0.1no

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain to win by 3 or more limited evidence16.0%15.9% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain to win by 2 or more limited evidence31.2%31.1% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain to win by 1 or more limited evidence51.2%50.9% ± 0.2no

Paris Saint Germain not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence71.7%71.6% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence86.3%86.4% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.6%94.6% ± 0.1no

Barcelona to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.4%5.4% ± 0.1no

Barcelona to win by 2 or more limited evidence13.7%13.6% ± 0.1no

Barcelona to win by 1 or more limited evidence28.3%28.4% ± 0.1no

Barcelona not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence48.8%49.1% ± 0.2no

Barcelona not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence68.8%68.9% ± 0.1no

Barcelona not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence84.0%84.1% ± 0.1no

Clean sheet

Paris Saint Germain clean sheet grid18.9%18.8% ± 0.1no

Barcelona clean sheet grid10.5%10.5% ± 0.1no

Correct scoreexact · no Kalshi correct-score contract listed yet (Kalshi lists them on match day)

Paris Saint Germain goals down, Barcelona goals across. every figure is a cell, or a sum of cells, of the frozen score grid of the selected mode's snapshot; the "6+" row and column sum the grid beyond five goals; the simulation column is the run's own count of the same cells (run 1720, 100,000 draws).

Paris Saint Germain \ Barcelona	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	2.2%	3.1%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
1	4.3%	7.6%	6.2%	3.4%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%
2	5.1%	8.4%	7.0%	3.9%	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
3	3.8%	6.3%	5.3%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.1%	3.6%	3.0%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%
5	1.0%	1.6%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
6+	0.5%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Barcelona8.4%8.4% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Barcelona7.6%7.7% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Barcelona7.0%7.0% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Barcelona6.3%6.3% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Barcelona6.2%6.3% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi

Paris Saint Germain 0 goals10.5%10.5% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 1 goal23.6%23.6% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 2 goals26.7%26.7% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 3 goals20.1%19.9% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 4 goals11.3%11.4% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 5 goals5.1%5.1% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain 6+ goals2.8%2.9% ± 0.1no

Barcelona exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi

Barcelona 0 goals18.9%18.8% ± 0.1no

Barcelona 1 goal31.5%31.5% ± 0.1no

Barcelona 2 goals26.2%26.2% ± 0.1no

Barcelona 3 goals14.5%14.7% ± 0.1no

Barcelona 4 goals6.0%6.0% ± 0.1no

Barcelona 5 goals2.0%2.1% ± 0.0no

Barcelona 6+ goals0.7%0.7% ± 0.0no

Winning margin (exact goal difference)exact · Kalshi lists half-line spreads only

Barcelona by 6 or more0.1%0.1% ± 0.0no

Barcelona by exactly 50.4%0.4% ± 0.0no

Barcelona by exactly 41.3%1.3% ± 0.0no

Barcelona by exactly 33.6%3.6% ± 0.1no

Barcelona by exactly 28.3%8.2% ± 0.1no

Barcelona by exactly 114.6%14.8% ± 0.1no

Draw (goal difference 0)20.5%20.7% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain by exactly 119.9%19.8% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain by exactly 215.2%15.3% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain by exactly 39.0%8.9% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain by exactly 44.4%4.3% ± 0.1no

Paris Saint Germain by exactly 51.8%1.8% ± 0.0no

Paris Saint Germain by 6 or more0.9%0.9% ± 0.0no

Mass outside the stored grid: 0.0026 %.

Paris Saint Germain v Barcelona: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner

Barcelona to win (90 minutes)

28%

57%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Barcelona to WinBarcelona wins in 90 minutes

28%61¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 100 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes)

51%

32%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Paris Saint Germain to WinParis Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes

51%39¢

Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

21%

20%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

21%26¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 100 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawParis Saint Germain or Barcelona wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

79%87¢

Limited evidence — in the Champions League only the match result is evaluated; not in default Build, included when a limited-evidence group is ticked under Markets to consider · 9 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

NO on Barcelona to WinParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

72%46¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 24 min old

NO on Paris Saint Germain to WinBarcelona wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

49%75¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 37 contracts at the ask · quote 24 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Available prediction types: 11 the app can estimate · 30 listed on Kalshi but not estimated

Both teams to score — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Clean sheet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (= opponent under 0.5); no Kalshi contract
Correct score (exact 90-minute score) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (one cell per score, the full grid on the match page); Kalshi correct-score contracts are fetched and classified (listed on match day); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Double chance — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); traded on Kalshi as the NO side of the match-result contracts · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Draw no bet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (conditional on no draw; void on a draw); no Kalshi contract
Exact goal difference / winning margin — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract beyond the half-line spreads
Exact team goals — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (marginal of one axis, shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract
Match result (home / draw / away) and the NO sides (double chances) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · YES on the match result is evaluated in this competition; the NO sides (double chances) are limited evidence
Team goals over / under (half lines 0.5–3.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); Kalshi lists team-total contracts on match day only (verified 2026-10-12), so they appear in Lab and Build late · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Total goals over / under (half lines 0.5–5.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Winning margin / handicap (half lines) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately · in this competition only the 90-minute match result has been evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported); this family is priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — in Build only when limited-evidence groups are ticked, never High Confidence
Anytime goalscorer / two or more goals — supported by simulation only: player allocation of simulated team goals (expected minutes, scoring share, availability); shown with Monte Carlo standard errors; Kalshi lists no player contract today (series fetched; classified only once their rules are verified on live contracts)

Listed on Kalshi; not estimated by Got%OnIt (shown so nothing is silently substituted):

First goalscorer — no event-order model: the simulation allocates goals per match, not in time order · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
First team to score — no event-order model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half both teams to score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half correct score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half result — no half-time model: the engines estimate 90-minute goals only · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half spread — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half total goals — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
League of the tournament winner — no tournament model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Method of finish — no extra-time or penalty model · needs settlement or data insufficient for a defensible probability
Method of victory / advancing — no extra-time or penalty model; the result rule is regulation time · needs settlement or data insufficient for a defensible probability
Other — contract semantics not read · needs settlement or data insufficient for a defensible probability
Player assists — assists are not modelled · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
Player shots — no shot model (per-player shot data is not stored) · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
Player shots on target — no shot model · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
Player to score or assist — assists are not modelled · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
Qualification — no tournament model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Round qualification — no tournament model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season leader — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season top finish — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Second-half both teams to score — no half-by-half model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Second-half result — no half-by-half model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Second-half spread — no half-by-half model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Second-half total goals — no half-by-half model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Team corners — no corners model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Team shots — no shot model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Team shots on target — no shot model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
To advance (knockout tie) — no two-leg / extra-time / penalty model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Total corners — no corners model (corner counts are not part of the evidence) · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Tournament finalist — no tournament model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Tournament winner — no season or tournament simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)

a family is supported only when its contract semantics are read by the classifier and its event is a function of the 90-minute score grid (or, for player events, of the simulation's goal allocation); nothing is supported because it exists on Kalshi every supported family is served by both modes from the selected mode's own snapshot; prices are the same under both.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

No changes detected in the sources checked since the prediction (standings, season figures).

No injury list had been collected by the prediction instant, so additions since then cannot be told from the first report.

Team situationParis Saint Germain 3.2 d rest (short) · Barcelona 3.1 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Mon 12 Oct, 23:21 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label. None of it changes Core's estimate; Deep Dive (toggle above) applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments.

Used by Core

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

Core (the configured headline engine) uses none of the cross-competition or player facts below; its inputs are the finished results above. Deep Dive applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments with uncertainty bands and is recorded as its own identity; the walk-forward experiments on this evidence (report §14) did not justify changing Core itself.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by Core: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment under Core.

Paris Saint Germain

3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 3 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 2 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Lyon +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 10 OctL1H Le MansW 3–1counted as workload
Wed 14 OctUCLA Manchester CityNScounted as scheduled workload
Sat 17 OctL1A StrasbourgNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctL1H Lyon+5 d
Fri 30 OctL1A Le Havre+10 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Dembele (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 9 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Paris Saint Germain: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Hakimi · regular	D	72	—
Ferran Torres	F	90	—
M. Safonov · regular	G	90	—
L. Hernández	D	90	—
L. Digne	D	90	—
João Neves · regular	M	58	—
Beraldo	M	59	—
Pedro Fernández	M	58	—
M. Godts	F	59	—
M. Akliouche	F	90	—
I. Zabarnyi	D	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Barcelona

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 3 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 2 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Real Madrid +5 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 10 OctLLH GetafeW 3–0counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLA GalatasarayNScounted as scheduled workload
Sat 17 OctLLA Real BetisNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctLLH Real Madrid+5 d
Sat 31 OctLLH Alaves+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Raphinha (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 7 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Barcelona: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
J. Koundé	D	90	—
Eric García · regular	D	90	—
Dani Olmo	M	61	—
Lamine Yamal · regular	F	90	—
Gabriel Jesus	F	82	—
A. Gordon	F	71	—
Gerard Martín · regular	D	90	—
X. Espart	D	90	—
Rodri	M	71	—
Gavi	M	61	—
Joan García · regular	G	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Injury information unavailable: no injury report has been observed for this match, so absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Lineups not confirmed. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Player availabilityInjury information unavailable

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change Core's estimate. Deep Dive (toggle above) applies it as a stated adjustment.

Injury information unavailable: we haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsLineups not confirmed

Lineups not confirmed yet. They are usually published about an hour before kickoff; we start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season1st v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Paris Saint Germain

1st of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 6, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Barcelona

3rd of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 5, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 1 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 12 Oct.

Player scoring (simulation)Lamine Yamal 30% anytime

Simulation · player layer on Core's goals Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with Core's team goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Paris Saint Germain

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 78% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
K. Kvaratskhelia F	25.7% ± 0.1	3.6% ± 0.1	0.30 ± 0.002	59%
O. Dembele F	25.2% ± 0.1	3.4% ± 0.1	0.29 ± 0.002	53%
D. Doue F	18.8% ± 0.1	1.9% ± 0.0	0.21 ± 0.001	52%
F. Torres F	15.1% ± 0.1	1.2% ± 0.0	0.16 ± 0.001	56%
Vitinha M	13.1% ± 0.1	0.9% ± 0.0	0.14 ± 0.001	78%
Marquinhos D	8.8% ± 0.1	0.4% ± 0.0	0.09 ± 0.001	61%
João Neves M	6.7% ± 0.1	0.2% ± 0.0	0.07 ± 0.001	77%
W. Zaire-Emery M	5.4% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.06 ± 0.001	63%

Barcelona

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 49% of goals assigned · 4 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
Lamine Yamal M	30.4% ± 0.1	5.2% ± 0.1	0.36 ± 0.002	97%
Fermín M	10.4% ± 0.1	0.6% ± 0.0	0.11 ± 0.001	45%
D. Olmo M	4.3% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	55%
J. Kounde D	2.1% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	38%
J. Cancelo D	2.0% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	41%
Pedri M	1.9% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	71%
K. Adeyemi F	1.9% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	27%
M. Bernal M	1.8% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	17%

Run 1720 (mc-v1:dc+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 12/10/2026, 09:31:18. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

Core | Deep DiveCore selected

Deep Dive moves Barcelona by -4.6 points against Core (28.3% → 23.7%). Lineups not confirmed.

Compare modesCore and Deep Dive side by side

Market	Core	Deep Dive	DifferenceΔ
Paris Saint Germain to win	51.2%	55.3% 35%–74%	+4.1 pts
Draw	20.5%	21.0% 15%–25%	+0.4 pts
Barcelona to win	28.3%	23.7% 11%–42%	-4.6 pts
Barcelona over 1.5 goals	49.5%	40.1% 27%–56%	-9.4 pts
Over 3.5 goals in total	55.1%	47.4% 29%–68%	-7.7 pts
Both teams to score	72.8%	66.5% 52%–79%	-6.3 pts
Over 2.5 goals in total	75.0%	68.8% 51%–84%	-6.2 pts
Paris Saint Germain or draw	71.7%	76.3% 58%–89%	+4.6 pts

Difference = Deep Dive − Core, in percentage points. The small range beside a Deep Dive figure is the range if context assumptions change: the span of that figure if every adjustment assumption sat at either end of its stated band (availability and schedule load together). It is not a statistical confidence interval. The Deep Dive figures come from that mode’s own stored snapshot (#990); nothing is recomputed.

What changed the estimate?4 adjustments applied

Player availability · Paris Saint Germain×1.011 (+1.1 %), band ×0.987–×1.035REPORTED
S. Mayulu out (4 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; A. Longoni out [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used)
Player availability · Barcelona×0.875 (-12.5 %), band ×0.812–×0.937REPORTED
F. de Jong out (1 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; Raphinha out (23 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; A. Christensen out (1 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; R. Bardghji out (1 % of recent goals) [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used) · 1 defensive starter(s) missing
Schedule load · Paris Saint Germain×0.951 (-4.9 %), band ×0.755–×1.198CONFIRMED
short rest (own) 1.00 → -3.7 %; short rest (opponent) 1.00 → 3.4 %; congestion 14d (own) 1.00 → 1.3 %; congestion 14d (opponent) 1.00 → -2.1 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.82 → -1.0 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.64 → -2.1 %
Schedule load · Barcelona×0.948 (-5.2 %), band ×0.752–×1.194CONFIRMED
short rest (own) 1.00 → -3.7 %; short rest (opponent) 1.00 → 3.4 %; congestion 14d (own) 1.00 → 1.3 %; congestion 14d (opponent) 1.00 → -2.1 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.64 → -0.8 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.82 → -2.7 %

Availability constants are stated priors with bands (half of a missing player’s recent scoring share, band a quarter to three quarters; +3 % opponent goals per missing defensive starter, band 1.5–4.5 %). Schedule-load coefficients are walk-forward medians whose bands include zero. 4 adjustment(s) moved the figures.

Freshness. Deep Dive inputs as of 12 Oct 16:35 UTC; line-ups not yet published, expected XIs used (as of 14 h ago; newest input 14 h ago before that instant).

Core: team strength, scoring levels, home advantage and the low-score correction from results and expected goals; no line-ups, injuries or schedule inputs. Deep Dive: Core plus reported absences, confirmed or expected line-ups, the goalkeeper and schedule load, each with an uncertainty band; equal to Core when nothing defensible applies. Paired forward record so far: 0 settled fixture(s); neither mode is called more accurate until the pre-registered rule is met.

How this estimate was builtscorelines, team strength, evidence, calibration

Why this prediction

Core · frozen headline snapshot What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

Outcome	Headline	Control	Control − headline
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	66.8%	+15.6 pts
Draw	20.5%	15.8%	−4.8 pts
Barcelona win	28.3%	17.4%	−10.9 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.26 and 1.66). Paris Saint Germain 2.26 · Barcelona 1.66 · total 3.92 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Paris Saint Germain–Barcelona)

2–18.4%
1–17.6%
2–27.0%
3–16.3%
1–26.2%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Paris Saint Germain

Expected goals: 2.26
Scoring vs average: ×1.19
Conceding vs average: ×1.26

Barcelona

Expected goals: 1.66
Scoring vs average: ×1.26
Conceding vs average: ×1.19

Paris Saint Germain (home): expected to score ×1.19 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.26 the average.
Barcelona (away): expected to score ×1.26 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.19 the average.
Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Paris Saint Germain: 153 matches across 8 competitions (150 with xG)
Barcelona: 159 matches across 8 competitions (157 with xG)
Evidence pool: 7044 matches across 8 competitions over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League)
xG coverage: 6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency: half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

Snapshot 14 h old · evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:30.
Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)

xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)

Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)

Market	Frozen	Documented calibration
1x2:home	51.2%	under-stated by 5.5 pts on 75 matches (this competition); conservative 45.4%
1x2:draw	20.5%	over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 13.4%
1x2:away	28.3%	under-stated by 1.1 pts on 106 matches (this competition); conservative 23.9%
double_chance:1x	71.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x2	48.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:12	79.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes	72.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no	27.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.5	97.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.5	2.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.5	90.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.5	9.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.5	75.0%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.5	25.0%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.5	55.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.5	44.9%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.5	35.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.5	64.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.5	20.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.5	79.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.5	89.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.5	10.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.5	65.9%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.5	34.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.5	39.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.5	60.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.5	19.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.5	80.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.5	81.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.5	18.9%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.5	49.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.5	50.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.5	23.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.5	76.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.5	8.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.5	91.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.5	16.0%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.5	84.0%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.5	31.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.5	68.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.5	51.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.5	48.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.5	71.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.5	28.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.5	86.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.5	13.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.5	94.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.5	5.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home	64.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away	35.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.22 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 8003491989197599314 · mc-v1:dc+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.61 s

Match result · exact and simulated

Outcome	Exact (headline)	Simulated ± SE	Gap
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	50.9% ± 0.2	−0.22 pts
Draw	20.5%	20.7% ± 0.1	+0.18 pts
Barcelona win	28.3%	28.4% ± 0.1	+0.05 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.22 pts (double_chance:x2); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Paris Saint Germain: 18.8% ± 0.1 (exact 18.9%)
Barcelona: 10.5% ± 0.1 (exact 10.5%)

Goal difference (Paris Saint Germain minus Barcelona)

<-50.1% ± 0.0
-50.4% ± 0.0
-41.3% ± 0.0
-33.6% ± 0.1
-28.2% ± 0.1
-114.8% ± 0.1
020.7% ± 0.1
119.8% ± 0.1
215.3% ± 0.1
38.9% ± 0.1
44.3% ± 0.1
51.8% ± 0.0
>50.9% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

Score	Simulated ± SE	Exact
Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Barcelona	8.4% ± 0.1	8.4%
Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Barcelona	7.7% ± 0.1	7.6%
Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Barcelona	7.0% ± 0.1	7.0%
Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Barcelona	6.3% ± 0.1	6.2%
Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Barcelona	6.3% ± 0.1	6.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Paris Saint Germain: mean 2.26 · variance 2.27 · ± 0.005
Barcelona: mean 1.67 · variance 1.67 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · previous headline engine · 216 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 216 settled so far.

Player availability · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Player availability would move paris saint germain win by +4.8 pts (to 55.9%). Expected goals move +0.02 for Paris Saint Germain and −0.21 for Barcelona.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change	Simulated ± SE
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	55.9%	+4.8 pts	55.8% ± 0.2
Draw	20.5%	20.3%	−0.2 pts	20.3% ± 0.1
Barcelona win	28.3%	23.8%	−4.5 pts	23.9% ± 0.1
Expected goals	2.26 – 1.66	2.28 – 1.46	+0.02 / −0.21

Data labels: CONFIRMED 147 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 14 h before as-of.

Paris Saint Germain

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.7% of goals share out

S. Mayulu M Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
A. Longoni G Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Safonov)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Barcelona

Attack ×0.87 band 0.81–0.94 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 25.0% of goals share out

F. de Jong M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.6% · effect −0.6% REPORTED
Raphinha M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 22.8% · effect −22.8% REPORTED
A. Christensen D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.5% · effect −0.5% · defensive starter REPORTED
R. Bardghji F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.1% · effect −1.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Garcia)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Fatigue and schedule would move draw by +0.6 pts (to 21.2%). Expected goals move −0.11 for Paris Saint Germain and −0.09 for Barcelona.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change	Simulated ± SE
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	50.7%	−0.5 pts	50.9% ± 0.2
Draw	20.5%	21.2%	+0.6 pts	21.1% ± 0.1
Barcelona win	28.3%	28.2%	−0.2 pts	28.1% ± 0.1
Expected goals	2.26 – 1.66	2.15 – 1.58	−0.11 / −0.09

Data labels: CONFIRMED 147 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 14 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

home: fewer than four days since the previous match
home: 3 matches in the last 14 days
away: fewer than four days since the previous match
away: 3 matches in the last 14 days

Paris Saint Germain rate ×0.95 band 0.50–1.89

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.010 (-0.111 to 0.120) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.6363636363636364 · contribution -0.021 (-0.111 to 0.074) CONFIRMED

Barcelona rate ×0.95 band 0.50–1.88

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.6363636363636364 · contribution -0.008 (-0.086 to 0.093) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.027 (-0.143 to 0.095) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move barcelona win by −4.6 pts (to 23.7%). Expected goals move −0.09 for Paris Saint Germain and −0.28 for Barcelona.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change	Simulated ± SE
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	55.3%	+4.1 pts	55.2% ± 0.2
Draw	20.5%	21.0%	+0.4 pts	20.9% ± 0.1
Barcelona win	28.3%	23.7%	−4.6 pts	23.9% ± 0.1
Expected goals	2.26 – 1.66	2.17 – 1.38	−0.09 / −0.28

Data labels: CONFIRMED 147 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 14 h before as-of.

Paris Saint Germain

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.7% of goals share out

S. Mayulu M Missing Fixture (Groin Injury) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
A. Longoni G Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Safonov)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Barcelona

Attack ×0.87 band 0.81–0.94 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 25.0% of goals share out

F. de Jong M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.6% · effect −0.6% REPORTED
Raphinha M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 22.8% · effect −22.8% REPORTED
A. Christensen D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.5% · effect −0.5% · defensive starter REPORTED
R. Bardghji F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.1% · effect −1.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Garcia)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

home: fewer than four days since the previous match
home: 3 matches in the last 14 days
away: fewer than four days since the previous match
away: 3 matches in the last 14 days

Paris Saint Germain rate ×0.95 band 0.50–1.89

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.010 (-0.111 to 0.120) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.6363636363636364 · contribution -0.021 (-0.111 to 0.074) CONFIRMED

Barcelona rate ×0.95 band 0.50–1.88

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.6363636363636364 · contribution -0.008 (-0.086 to 0.093) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.027 (-0.143 to 0.095) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Previous headline engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

Outcome	Headline	Candidate	Change
Paris Saint Germain win	51.2%	63.8%	+12.6 pts
Draw	20.5%	17.3%	−3.2 pts
Barcelona win	28.3%	18.9%	−9.4 pts
Expected goals	—	2.68 – 1.44	+0.42 / −0.22

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 388 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 09:30:10.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 51.2% · draw 20.5% · away 28.3%
Expected goals: 2.26 – 1.66
Paris Saint Germain eligible matches: 153 (150 with xG)
Barcelona eligible matches: 159 (157 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 12/10/2026, 09:30:41
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's away probability is 29% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 19% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only the 90-minute match result is evaluated (Phase 8A: over/under 2.5 not supported, BTTS encouraging); totals, margins, team goals, both-teams-to-score, correct scores and match-result NO positions are priced from the same score grid as limited evidence — research only, never High Confidence

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Paris Saint Germain	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Le Mans	home	3–1	4.33–1.49	W
20 Sept	Marseille	away	2–1	—	W
13 Sept	Stade Brestois 29	away	1–0	1.16–1.24	W
9 Sept	Slovan Bratislava	home	6–1	—	W
4 Sept	Monaco	home	1–2	2.32–0.51	L
28 Aug	Lille	away	2–2	1.44–1.27	D

Barcelona	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Getafe	home	3–0	1.94–0.14	W
19 Sept	Sevilla	away	3–1	3.47–0.40	W
16 Sept	Racing Santander	home	7–2	6.74–1.98	W
13 Sept	Levante	away	4–2	2.58–2.42	W
9 Sept	Feyenoord	home	5–1	—	W
6 Sept	Valencia	away	5–0	4.08–0.66	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-BAR	28.3%	57.5%	−29.2 pts	0.54 / 0.61	0.46	100 / 1	Comparable seen 24 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-PSG	51.2%	32.0%	+19.2 pts	0.25 / 0.39	0.75	1 / 37	Comparable seen 24 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT20PSGBAR-TIE	20.5%	19.5%	+1.0 pts	0.13 / 0.26	0.87	100 / 9	Comparable seen 24 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 12/10/2026, 23:21:52.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	—	—	—	—	0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)	51.2%	—
1x2:draw	—	—	—	—	0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)	20.5%	—
1x2:away	—	—	—	—	0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)	28.3%	—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	—	—	—	—	0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	—	—	—	—	0 only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)	—	—

No pages observed. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 12/10/2026, 23:21:52.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	not_observed	—
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:01 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 11/10/2026
Season statistics · Paris Saint Germain	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:29 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Barcelona	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:37 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	51.2%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	20.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	28.3%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	71.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	48.8%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	79.5%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	72.8%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	27.2%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	97.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	2.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	90.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	9.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	75.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	25.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	55.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	44.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	35.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	64.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	20.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	79.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	89.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	10.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	65.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	34.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	39.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	60.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	19.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	80.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	81.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	18.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	49.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	50.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	23.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	76.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	8.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	91.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	16.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	84.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	31.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	68.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	51.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	48.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	71.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	28.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	86.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	13.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	94.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	5.4%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	64.4%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	35.6%	supported	not_evaluated

Core · Snapshot 905 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 12/10/2026, 23:21:52