Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

LeedsvManchester United

Leeds
40%
Draw
25%
Manchester United
35%

Got%OnIt gives Leeds a 40% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Leeds and 1.4 for Manchester United.
  • Leeds won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Manchester United won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Leeds are 6th of 20 after 6 games; Manchester United are 12th.
  • Leeds have won 2 and lost 1; Manchester United have won 1 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Leeds

  • L1–2at Arsenal10 Oct
  • D0–0v Crystal Palace20 Sept
  • W4–1v Newcastle14 Sept
  • D1–1at Brighton5 Sept
  • D1–1v Brentford30 Aug
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest22 Aug

Manchester United

  • D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct
  • D1–1at Fulham20 Sept
  • L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept
  • W4–0v Sabah FA10 Sept
  • D2–2at Everton6 Sept
  • W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Leeds win39.9%39.9%+0.0 pts
Draw25.3%25.7%+0.4 pts
Manchester United win34.9%34.4%−0.5 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.51 and 1.40). Leeds 1.51 · Manchester United 1.40 · total 2.92 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Leeds–Manchester United)

  1. 1–111.8%
  2. 2–18.7%
  3. 1–28.1%
  4. 1–07.9%
  5. 0–17.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Leeds

Expected goals
1.51
Scoring vs average
×0.98
Conceding vs average
×1.11

Manchester United

Expected goals
1.40
Scoring vs average
×1.11
Conceding vs average
×0.98
  • Leeds (home): expected to score ×0.98 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.11 the average.
  • Manchester United (away): expected to score ×1.11 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.98 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Leeds
44 matches (44 with xG)
Manchester United
141 matches (139 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home39.9%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 33.8%
1x2:draw25.3%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.7%
1x2:away34.9%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 33.1%
double_chance:1x65.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x260.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1274.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes59.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no40.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.3%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.0%
total_goals:under:0.55.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.579.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 78.5%
total_goals:under:1.520.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.555.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.1%
total_goals:under:2.544.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.533.4%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.8%
total_goals:under:3.566.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.517.1%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 15.3%
total_goals:under:4.582.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.57.6%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 5.2%
total_goals:under:5.592.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.578.0%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.4%
team_total:home:under:0.522.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.544.7%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.0%
team_total:home:under:1.555.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.519.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.9%
team_total:home:under:2.580.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.8%
team_total:home:under:3.593.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.575.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.8%
team_total:away:under:0.524.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.540.9%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.2%
team_total:away:under:1.559.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.516.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.2%
team_total:away:under:2.583.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.9%
team_total:away:under:3.594.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.57.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.7%
spread:away:+2.592.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.0%
spread:home:-1.519.6%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.6%
spread:away:+1.580.4%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.9%
spread:home:-0.539.9%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.0%
spread:away:+0.560.1%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.5%
spread:home:+0.565.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.5%
spread:away:-0.534.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.6%
spread:home:+1.583.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.4%
spread:away:-1.516.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.3%
spread:home:+2.594.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.55.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home53.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away46.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.29 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 46059248891915133 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.20 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Leeds win39.9%40.1% ± 0.2+0.26 pts
Draw25.3%24.9% ± 0.1−0.34 pts
Manchester United win34.9%35.0% ± 0.2+0.08 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.29 pts (team_total:home:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Leeds
24.6% ± 0.1 (exact 24.6%)
Manchester United
21.9% ± 0.1 (exact 22.0%)

Goal difference (Leeds minus Manchester United)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.4% ± 0.0
  3. -41.2% ± 0.0
  4. -34.1% ± 0.1
  5. -210.2% ± 0.1
  6. -119.0% ± 0.1
  7. 024.9% ± 0.1
  8. 120.6% ± 0.1
  9. 211.9% ± 0.1
  10. 35.2% ± 0.1
  11. 41.8% ± 0.0
  12. 50.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Leeds 1–1 Manchester United11.6% ± 0.111.8%
Leeds 2–1 Manchester United8.8% ± 0.18.7%
Leeds 1–2 Manchester United8.1% ± 0.18.1%
Leeds 1–0 Manchester United8.1% ± 0.17.9%
Leeds 0–1 Manchester United7.4% ± 0.17.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Leeds
mean 1.52 · variance 1.52 · ± 0.004
Manchester United
mean 1.40 · variance 1.40 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move leeds win by +3.7 pts (to 43.5%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Leeds and −0.16 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Leeds win39.9%43.5%+3.7 pts
Draw25.3%25.2%−0.0 pts
Manchester United win34.9%31.2%−3.7 pts
Expected goals1.51 – 1.401.51 – 1.24+0.00 / −0.16

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Leeds

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: H. Wilson, D. James, J. BahoyaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Trafford)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Manchester United

Attack ×0.89 band 0.83–0.94 ESTIMATED · 22.7% of goals share out

  • M. de Ligt D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 1.0% · effect −1.1% REPORTED
  • N. Mazraoui D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Heaton G Missing Fixture (Abdominal strain) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ugarte M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • B. Sesko F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 16.6% · effect −16.6% REPORTED
  • P. Dorgu D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 5.1% · effect −5.1% REPORTED

Returning: K. Darlow, A. DialloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Lammens)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move manchester united win by +4.4 pts (to 39.2%). Expected goals move −0.12 for Leeds and +0.06 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Leeds win39.9%35.8%−4.1 pts
Draw25.3%25.0%−0.3 pts
Manchester United win34.9%39.2%+4.4 pts
Expected goals1.51 – 1.401.39 – 1.47−0.12 / +0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Leeds rate ×0.92 band 0.69–1.40

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Manchester United rate ×1.05 band 0.69–1.45

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move leeds win by −0.7 pts (to 39.1%). Expected goals move −0.12 for Leeds and −0.10 for Manchester United.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Leeds win39.9%39.1%−0.7 pts
Draw25.3%25.8%+0.6 pts
Manchester United win34.9%35.0%+0.1 pts
Expected goals1.51 – 1.401.39 – 1.30−0.12 / −0.10

Data labels: CONFIRMED 116 · REPORTED 6 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Leeds

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: H. Wilson, D. James, J. BahoyaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Trafford)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Manchester United

Attack ×0.89 band 0.83–0.94 ESTIMATED · 22.7% of goals share out

  • M. de Ligt D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 1.0% · effect −1.1% REPORTED
  • N. Mazraoui D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Heaton G Missing Fixture (Abdominal strain) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ugarte M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • B. Sesko F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 16.6% · effect −16.6% REPORTED
  • P. Dorgu D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 5.1% · effect −5.1% REPORTED

Returning: K. Darlow, A. DialloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Lammens)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Leeds rate ×0.92 band 0.69–1.40

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Manchester United rate ×1.05 band 0.69–1.45

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Leeds win39.9%40.0%+0.2 pts
Draw25.3%24.9%−0.4 pts
Manchester United win34.9%35.1%+0.2 pts
Expected goals—1.49 – 1.38−0.02 / −0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 593 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)D. Calvert-Lewin 41% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Leeds

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 96% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Calvert-Lewin F41.4% ± 0.29.9% ± 0.10.53 ± 0.00283%
J. Justin M16.9% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.001100%
N. Okafor F15.9% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00177%
A. Stach M12.1% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00179%
A. Tanaka M8.0% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00177%
B. Aaronson M7.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00130%
J. Bogle D6.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00180%
L. Nmecha F5.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00121%

Manchester United

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 67% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
B. Mbeumo F21.9% ± 0.12.6% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00286%
B. Fernandes M21.2% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00286%
M. Cunha M20.0% ± 0.12.1% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00182%
L. Martinez D2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00181%
M. Mount M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00018%
K. Mainoo M2.0% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00081%
A. Diallo M1.6% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00029%
L. Shaw D1.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00065%

Run 993 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 488, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester United)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Leeds)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLeeds 1 absent regular · Manchester United 5 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:14 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Leeds

8.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Sunderland +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLH Crystal PalaceD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA ArsenalL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Sunderland+7.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Bournemouth+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Rodon (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Leeds: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Bogle · regularM086—
J. Trafford · regularG0900' England, 11.8 d before
J. Justin · regularD079—
N. ElvediD017690' Switzerland, 11.8 d before
T. Muharemović · regularD018090' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 12.8 d before
E. Ampadu · regularM018090' Wales, 13.8 d before
N. OkaforM071—
D. Calvert-Lewin · regularF0988' England, 11.8 d before
A. Tanaka · regularM071—
G. GudmundssonM014454' Sweden, 12.8 d before
A. Stach · regularM090—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 512 minutes — J. Bijol (90' Slovenia, 11.8 d before); I. Gruev (90' Bulgaria, 11.8 d before); N. Elvedi (90' Switzerland, 11.8 d before); T. Muharemović (90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 12.8 d before); E. Ampadu (90' Wales, 13.8 d before); D. Calvert-Lewin (8' England, 11.8 d before); G. Gudmundsson (54' Sweden, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Manchester United

4.8 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Como +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (A Como) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA FulhamD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH TottenhamD 1–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLA Atletico MadridNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Como+3.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Bournemouth+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Chelsea+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Manchester United: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Bruno Fernandes · regularM018090' Portugal, 13.8 d before
A. DialloM059—
K. Mainoo · regularM090—
L. YoroD014990' France, 12.8 d before
B. Mbeumo · regularF090—
Matheus Cunha · regularM090—
Y. Tielemans · regularM059—
L. Shaw · regularD090—
Lisandro Martínez · regularD090—
H. Maguire · regularD090—
S. Lammens · regularG0900' Belgium, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 251 minutes — Bruno Fernandes (90' Portugal, 13.8 d before); L. Yoro (90' France, 12.8 d before); J. Zirkzee (44' Netherlands, 13.8 d before); Diogo Dalot (27' Portugal, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Leeds40%39%38%
Draw25%26%26%
Manchester United35%35%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Leeds

  • Leeds: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L1–2at Arsenal10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Crystal Palace20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Newcastle14 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Brighton5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Brentford30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Nottingham Forest22 Aug · in model evidence

Manchester United

  • Manchester United: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D1–1v Tottenham10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Fulham20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Manchester City13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Everton6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–2v Ipswich30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Hull City22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.579%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.533%
Both teams score59%

Leeds

Expected goals1.51
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more45%
Clean sheet25%

Manchester United

Expected goals1.40
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more41%
Clean sheet22%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season6th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Leeds

6th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L1 from 6 games · scored 8, conceded 5

Home W1 D2 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LDWDD (most recent last)

Manchester United

12th of 20 · 6 pts · W1 D3 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 4) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games DDLDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Leeds to win39.9%40.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 38¢
Draw25.3%24.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Manchester United to win34.9%35.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 37¢
Double chance
Leeds or draw limited evidence65.1%65.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 65¢
Manchester United or draw limited evidence60.1%59.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 63¢
Not a draw limited evidence74.7%75.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Draw no bet
Leeds to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence53.3%53.4% ± 0.2no
Manchester United to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence46.7%46.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.3%94.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.7%5.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence79.1%79.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence20.9%21.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 21¢
Over 2.5 goals in total55.8%55.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Under 2.5 goals in total44.2%44.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence33.4%33.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 37¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence66.6%66.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence17.1%17.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence82.9%82.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence7.6%7.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence92.4%92.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence59.1%59.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence40.9%41.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Team goals
Leeds over 0.5 goals limited evidence78.0%78.1% ± 0.1no
Leeds under 0.5 goals limited evidence22.0%21.9% ± 0.1no
Leeds over 1.5 goals limited evidence44.7%45.0% ± 0.2no
Leeds under 1.5 goals limited evidence55.3%55.0% ± 0.2no
Leeds over 2.5 goals limited evidence19.5%19.5% ± 0.1no
Leeds under 2.5 goals limited evidence80.5%80.5% ± 0.1no
Leeds over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.7%6.8% ± 0.1no
Leeds under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.3%93.2% ± 0.1no
Manchester United over 0.5 goals limited evidence75.4%75.4% ± 0.1no
Manchester United under 0.5 goals limited evidence24.6%24.6% ± 0.1no
Manchester United over 1.5 goals limited evidence40.9%40.9% ± 0.2no
Manchester United under 1.5 goals limited evidence59.1%59.1% ± 0.2no
Manchester United over 2.5 goals limited evidence16.7%16.7% ± 0.1no
Manchester United under 2.5 goals limited evidence83.3%83.3% ± 0.1no
Manchester United over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.4%5.4% ± 0.1no
Manchester United under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.6%94.6% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Leeds to win by 3 or more limited evidence7.6%7.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Leeds to win by 2 or more limited evidence19.6%19.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Leeds to win by 1 or more limited evidence39.9%40.1% ± 0.2no
Leeds not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence65.1%65.0% ± 0.2no
Leeds not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence83.9%84.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Leeds not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.1%94.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Manchester United to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.9%5.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Manchester United to win by 2 or more limited evidence16.1%16.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Manchester United to win by 1 or more limited evidence34.9%35.0% ± 0.2no
Manchester United not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence60.1%59.9% ± 0.2no
Manchester United not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence80.4%80.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 84¢
Manchester United not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence92.4%92.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Clean sheet
Leeds clean sheet grid24.6%24.6% ± 0.1no
Manchester United clean sheet grid22.0%21.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.9% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds by exactly 1—20.6% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds by exactly 2—11.9% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds by exactly 3—5.2% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds by exactly 4—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Leeds by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by exactly 1—19.0% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 2—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 3—4.1% ± 0.1not listed
Manchester United by exactly 4—1.2% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by exactly 5—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Leeds by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Manchester United by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Leeds 1–1 Manchester United—11.6% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds 2–1 Manchester United—8.8% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds 1–2 Manchester United—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds 1–0 Manchester United—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Leeds 0–1 Manchester United—7.4% ± 0.1not listed

Leeds v Manchester United: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Leeds to win (90 minutes)
40%
38%
YES on Leeds to WinLeeds wins in 90 minutes
40%38¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,703 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
35%
36%
YES on Manchester United to WinManchester United wins in 90 minutes
35%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 60,211 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,642 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLeeds or Manchester United wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 17,662 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Manchester United to WinLeeds wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
65%65¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 8,436 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Leeds to WinManchester United wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
60%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,210 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 722 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,683 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
79%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
79%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
21%21¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 717 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
56%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
56%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,216 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
44%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,275 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
33%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
33%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,216 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
67%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,845 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
17%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 508 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
83%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,241 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 512 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,077 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
59%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
59%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,040 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
41%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,113 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Leeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLeeds wins by 2 goals or more
20%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 509 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Leeds to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 1 goal · Leeds not by 2+ goals
80%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,236 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Leeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLeeds wins by 3 goals or more
8%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,229 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Leeds to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins or the match is drawn, or Leeds wins by 2 goals or fewer · Leeds not by 3+ goals
92%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,588 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 2 goals or more
16%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 510 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLeeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 1 goal · Manchester United not by 2+ goals
84%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,298 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester United wins by 3 goals or more
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 507 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Manchester United to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLeeds wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester United wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester United not by 3+ goals
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 393 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 39.9% · draw 25.3% · away 34.9%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.40
Leeds eligible matches
44 (44 with xG)
Manchester United eligible matches
141 (139 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LeedsOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctArsenalaway1–20.74–2.66L
20 SeptCrystal Palacehome0–01.31–1.06D
14 SeptNewcastlehome4–12.08–0.88W
5 SeptBrightonaway1–12.49–2.19D
30 AugBrentfordhome1–11.46–1.67D
22 AugNottingham Forestaway1–00.47–0.66W
Manchester UnitedOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctTottenhamhome1–10.82–1.62D
20 SeptFulhamaway1–11.60–1.62D
13 SeptManchester Cityhome0–11.00–1.10L
10 SeptSabah FAhome4–0—W
6 SeptEvertonaway2–20.69–1.01D
30 AugIpswichhome5–24.56–2.01W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18LEEMUN-BTTS
59.1%61.5%−2.4 pts0.60 / 0.630.405,040 / 3,113Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Leeds to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE
39.9%37.5%+2.4 pts0.37 / 0.380.6324,703 / 1,210Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN
34.9%36.0%−1.1 pts0.35 / 0.370.6560,211 / 8,436Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18LEEMUN-TIE
25.3%26.0%−0.7 pts0.25 / 0.270.7514,642 / 17,662Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Leeds to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE2
19.6%17.5%+2.1 pts0.16 / 0.190.84509 / 1,236Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Leeds to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-LEE3
7.6%6.5%+1.1 pts0.05 / 0.080.951,229 / 1,588Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN2
16.1%16.0%+0.1 pts0.15 / 0.170.85510 / 2,298Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Manchester United to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18LEEMUN-MUN3
5.9%6.0%−0.1 pts0.05 / 0.070.95507 / 393Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-1
94.3%94.0%+0.3 pts0.93 / 0.950.07722 / 1,683Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-2
79.1%80.5%−1.4 pts0.79 / 0.820.211,220 / 717Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-3
55.8%57.5%−1.7 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,216 / 6,275Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-4
33.4%35.5%−2.1 pts0.34 / 0.370.661,216 / 1,845Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-5
17.1%18.0%−0.9 pts0.17 / 0.190.83508 / 1,241Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18LEEMUN-6
7.6%8.0%−0.4 pts0.07 / 0.090.93512 / 1,077Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:14:09.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home38.8%38.1% – 39.5%41.2%2.431039.9%+1.1 pts
1x2:draw26.3%25.8% – 26.8%27.9%3.591025.3%−1.1 pts
1x2:away34.9%33.9% – 35.4%37.0%2.701034.9%−0.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.9%57.6% – 58.9%60.6%1.65755.8%−2.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.542.1%41.1% – 42.4%44.1%2.27744.2%+2.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.77 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.81 · draw 3.58 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
SBOMatch winneraway 2.52 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
William HillMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.62 · draw 3.50 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.75 · home 2.5211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.63 · draw 3.60 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.70 · under 2.5 2.3411/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.3211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.1611/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:24:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:14:09.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:13 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Leedsok11/10/2026, 01:39:11 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Manchester Unitedok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home39.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away34.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x65.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x260.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes59.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no40.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.579.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.555.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.544.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.533.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.566.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.517.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.582.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.578.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.544.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.555.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.519.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.580.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.575.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.524.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.540.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.559.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.516.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.583.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.519.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.580.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.539.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.560.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.565.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.534.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.583.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.516.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.594.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.55.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home53.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away46.7%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 488 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:14:09