Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT

LensvSporting CP

Lens
46%
Draw
25%
Sporting CP
29%

Got%OnIt gives Lens a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Lens and 1.2 for Sporting CP.
  • Lens won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 a game.
  • Sporting CP won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Lens are 10th of 36 after 1 games; Sporting CP are 7th.
  • Lens have won 1 and lost 0; Sporting CP have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Lens

  • W2–1v Lyon9 Oct
  • L1–2at Monaco18 Sept
  • D2–2at Le Mans13 Sept
  • W3–2at Slavia Praha10 Sept
  • L0–1v Lorient5 Sept
  • L1–2at Strasbourg29 Aug

Sporting CP

  • W3–1v Galatasaray9 Sept
  • D0–0at Arsenal15 Apr
  • L0–1v Arsenal7 Apr
  • W3–0v Bodo/Glimt17 Mar
  • L0–3at Bodo/Glimt11 Mar
  • W3–2at Athletic Club28 Jan

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Lens win46.3%36.7%−9.6 pts
Draw25.0%23.2%−1.8 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%40.1%+11.4 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.63 and 1.24). Lens 1.63 · Sporting CP 1.24 · total 2.87 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Lens–Sporting CP)

  1. 1–111.8%
  2. 2–19.3%
  3. 1–09.0%
  4. 2–07.6%
  5. 1–27.1%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Lens

Expected goals
1.63
Scoring vs average
×0.86
Conceding vs average
×0.94

Sporting CP

Expected goals
1.24
Scoring vs average
×0.94
Conceding vs average
×0.86
  • Lens (home): expected to score ×0.86 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.94 the average.
  • Sporting CP (away): expected to score ×0.94 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.86 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Lens
117 matches (115 with xG)
Sporting CP
33 matches (32 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home46.3%under-stated by 6.8 pts on 101 matches (this competition); conservative 41.3%
1x2:draw25.0%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 17.7%
1x2:away28.7%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 106 matches (this competition); conservative 24.3%
double_chance:1x71.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x253.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes57.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no42.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.56.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.578.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.521.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.554.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.545.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.532.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.567.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.516.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.583.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.57.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.592.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.580.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.519.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.548.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.551.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.522.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.577.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.591.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.571.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.529.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.535.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.564.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.512.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.587.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.53.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.596.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.510.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.589.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.524.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.575.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.546.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.553.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.571.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.528.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.587.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.512.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.596.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home61.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away38.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.24 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7802911596400433087 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Lens win46.3%46.3% ± 0.2+0.06 pts
Draw25.0%24.5% ± 0.1−0.49 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%29.2% ± 0.1+0.44 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.24 pts (double_chance:x2); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Lens
29.0% ± 0.1 (exact 29.0%)
Sporting CP
19.7% ± 0.1 (exact 19.6%)

Goal difference (Lens minus Sporting CP)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.9% ± 0.0
  4. -32.9% ± 0.1
  5. -28.1% ± 0.1
  6. -117.1% ± 0.1
  7. 024.5% ± 0.1
  8. 121.9% ± 0.1
  9. 214.4% ± 0.1
  10. 36.6% ± 0.1
  11. 42.5% ± 0.0
  12. 50.8% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Lens 1–1 Sporting CP11.5% ± 0.111.8%
Lens 2–1 Sporting CP9.3% ± 0.19.3%
Lens 1–0 Sporting CP9.1% ± 0.19.0%
Lens 2–0 Sporting CP7.6% ± 0.17.6%
Lens 0–1 Sporting CP7.2% ± 0.16.7%

Expected goals (simulated)

Lens
mean 1.63 · variance 1.62 · ± 0.004
Sporting CP
mean 1.24 · variance 1.23 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move lens win by −1.1 pts (to 45.2%). Expected goals move −0.08 for Lens and −0.02 for Sporting CP.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lens win46.3%45.2%−1.1 pts
Draw25.0%25.0%+0.0 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%29.8%+1.1 pts
Expected goals1.63 – 1.241.55 – 1.21−0.08 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 76 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Lens

Attack ×0.95 band 0.93–0.98 ESTIMATED · 9.6% of goals share out

  • J. Todibo D Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Hazard M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Nawrocki D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Jhoanner Chavez D Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Sima F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 9.6% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • I. Jourdren G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Diarra Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Risser)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sporting CP

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.8% of goals share out

  • N. Santos D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • R. Zalazar M Questionable (Injury) · share 7.6% · effect −3.8% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Silva)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move sporting cp win by +1.3 pts (to 30.0%). Expected goals move −0.06 for Lens and −0.00 for Sporting CP.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lens win46.3%45.1%−1.2 pts
Draw25.0%24.9%−0.1 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%30.0%+1.3 pts
Expected goals1.63 – 1.241.57 – 1.23−0.06 / −0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 76 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 4 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lens rate ×0.96 band 0.63–1.63

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution 0.033 (-0.062 to 0.154) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

Sporting CP rate ×1.00 band 0.64–1.51

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution -0.030 (-0.102 to 0.032) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move lens win by −2.6 pts (to 43.7%). Expected goals move −0.14 for Lens and −0.03 for Sporting CP.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lens win46.3%43.7%−2.6 pts
Draw25.0%25.5%+0.5 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%30.8%+2.1 pts
Expected goals1.63 – 1.241.49 – 1.21−0.14 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 76 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Lens

Attack ×0.95 band 0.93–0.98 ESTIMATED · 9.6% of goals share out

  • J. Todibo D Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Hazard M Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Nawrocki D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Jhoanner Chavez D Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Sima F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 9.6% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • I. Jourdren G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Diarra Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Risser)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sporting CP

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.8% of goals share out

  • N. Santos D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • R. Zalazar M Questionable (Injury) · share 7.6% · effect −3.8% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Silva)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 4 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lens rate ×0.96 band 0.63–1.63

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution 0.033 (-0.062 to 0.154) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

Sporting CP rate ×1.00 band 0.64–1.51

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution -0.030 (-0.102 to 0.032) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.006 (-0.062 to 0.066) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.45454545454545453 · contribution -0.015 (-0.079 to 0.053) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Lens win46.3%43.6%−2.7 pts
Draw25.0%23.9%−1.1 pts
Sporting CP win28.7%32.5%+3.8 pts
Expected goals—1.65 – 1.40+0.02 / +0.16

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 172 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)L. Suarez 34% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Lens

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 65% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
F. Thauvin F32.5% ± 0.15.8% ± 0.10.39 ± 0.002100%
M. Udol D12.4% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00197%
O. Edouard F11.8% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00141%
I. Ganiou D7.6% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00165%
R. Aguilar D4.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00164%
S. Abdulhamid D3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00117%
F. Ivanovic F2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00129%
F. Sotoca F2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00025%

Sporting CP

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 87% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Suarez F33.8% ± 0.16.4% ± 0.10.41 ± 0.00297%
G. Catamo M15.2% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00197%
M. Araujo D12.9% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00191%
Trincao M10.1% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00173%
G. Inacio D7.5% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00195%
P. Goncalves M5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00147%
O. Diomande D4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00160%
G. Quenda M1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0007%

Run 946 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 441, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lens)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sporting CP)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T16:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLens 3.9 d rest (short) · Sporting CP 4 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lens

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Estac Troyes +4.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptL1A MonacoL 1–2counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctL1H LyonW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctL1A Estac Troyes+4.1 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Club Brugge KV+8.1 d
  • Sat 24 OctL1H Paris FC+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Sima (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.9 CONFIRMED

Lens: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
R. Risser · regularG9090—
I. Ganiou · regularD9090—
Y. TitraouiM5454—
F. SotocaM6969—
O. ÉdouardF6969—
F. Thauvin · regularM9090—
M. Udol · regularM9090—
M. CuisanceM8383—
R. AguilarM9090—
K. Antonio · regularD9090—
J. GraditD5353—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 187 minutes — A. Bulatović (0' Montenegro, 11 d before; 79' Montenegro, 7.9 d before); F. Ivanović (18' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 90' Croatia, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Sporting CP

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Lask Linz +8.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Lask Linz+8.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Trincao (M) — reason unknown; J. Simoes (M) — reason unknown; M. Hjulmand (M) — reason unknown; O. Diomande (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Sporting CP: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Luis GuilhermeM00—
G. Inacio · regularD000' Portugal, 11.9 d before
I. DoumbiaM010010' Italy, 10.9 d before; 90' Italy, 7.9 d before
G. Catamo · regularM00—
L. Suarez · regularF00—
S. AltimiraM00—
R. Silva · regularG000' Portugal, 11.9 d before; 0' Portugal, 8.9 d before
M. Araujo · regularD00—
G. VagiannidisD00—
E. QuaresmaD00—
R. ZalazarM00—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 349 minutes — I. Doumbia (10' Italy, 10.9 d before; 90' Italy, 7.9 d before); I. Fresneda (0' Spain, 13.9 d before; 90' Spain, 9.9 d before; 0' Spain, 6.9 d before); F. Ioannidis (71' Greece, 11.9 d before; 88' Greece, 8.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Lens

  • A. Sima · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • I. Jourdren · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • J. Chavez · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Todibo · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
  • M. Diarra · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Nawrocki · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Hazard · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture

Sporting CP

  • N. Santos · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • R. Zalazar · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Lens46%38%39%
Draw25%26%25%
Sporting CP29%37%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Lens a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (46% vs 38%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence7 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lens

  • Lens: 7 finished matches (7 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 71%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 71%; over 1.5 goals in 86%, over 2.5 in 57%.
  • W3–2at Slavia Praha10 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Sevilla12 Dec · in model evidence
  • L0–6at Arsenal29 Nov · in model evidence
  • L0–1at PSV Eindhoven8 Nov · in model evidence
  • D1–1v PSV Eindhoven24 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Arsenal3 Oct · in model evidence

Sporting CP

  • Sporting CP: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–1v Galatasaray9 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Arsenal15 Apr · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Arsenal7 Apr · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Bodo/Glimt17 Mar · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Bodo/Glimt11 Mar · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Athletic Club28 Jan · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more7%
Over 1.578%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.532%
Both teams score57%

Lens

Expected goals1.63
Scores at least once80%
Scores 2 or more49%
Clean sheet29%

Sporting CP

Expected goals1.24
Scores at least once71%
Scores 2 or more35%
Clean sheet20%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability9 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

9 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Lens

  • A. SimaOutMuscle Injury
  • I. JourdrenOutOff the roster
  • J. ChavezOutThigh Injury
  • J. TodiboOutInactive
  • M. DiarraOutOff the roster
  • M. NawrockiOutKnee Injury
  • T. HazardOutInactive

Sporting CP

  • N. SantosOutMuscle Injury
  • R. ZalazarDoubtfulInjury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season10th v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lens

10th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Sporting CP

7th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Lens to win46.3%46.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢
Draw25.0%24.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Sporting CP to win28.7%29.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 36¢
Double chance
Lens or draw limited evidence71.3%70.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 65¢
Sporting CP or draw limited evidence53.7%53.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 62¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.0%75.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Draw no bet
Lens to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence61.7%61.4% ± 0.2no
Sporting CP to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence38.3%38.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.0%94.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 96¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.0%5.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence78.3%78.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 84¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence21.7%22.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 18¢
Over 2.5 goals in total54.7%54.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 62¢
Under 2.5 goals in total45.3%45.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 39¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence32.3%32.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 40¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence67.7%67.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 61¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence16.3%16.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence83.7%83.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence7.1%7.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence92.9%92.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence57.4%57.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 65¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence42.6%42.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 36¢
Team goals
Lens over 0.5 goals limited evidence80.4%80.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Lens under 0.5 goals limited evidence19.6%19.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Lens over 1.5 goals limited evidence48.5%48.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 49¢
Lens under 1.5 goals limited evidence51.5%51.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Lens over 2.5 goals limited evidence22.5%22.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Lens under 2.5 goals limited evidence77.5%77.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Lens over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.3%8.2% ± 0.1no
Lens under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.7%91.8% ± 0.1no
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals limited evidence71.0%71.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 81¢
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals limited evidence29.0%29.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals limited evidence35.1%34.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals limited evidence64.9%65.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals limited evidence12.9%12.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals limited evidence87.1%87.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals limited evidence3.7%3.7% ± 0.1no
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals limited evidence96.3%96.3% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Lens to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.1%10.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Lens to win by 2 or more limited evidence24.2%24.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Lens to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.3%46.3% ± 0.2no
Lens not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence71.3%70.8% ± 0.1no
Lens not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.9%88.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Lens not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.0%96.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Sporting CP to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.0%3.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Sporting CP to win by 2 or more limited evidence12.1%12.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Sporting CP to win by 1 or more limited evidence28.7%29.2% ± 0.1no
Sporting CP not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.7%53.7% ± 0.2no
Sporting CP not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence75.8%75.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Sporting CP not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.9%90.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Clean sheet
Lens clean sheet grid29.0%29.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Sporting CP clean sheet grid19.6%19.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.5% ± 0.1not listed
Lens by exactly 1—21.9% ± 0.1not listed
Lens by exactly 2—14.4% ± 0.1not listed
Lens by exactly 3—6.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lens by exactly 4—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Lens by exactly 5—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Sporting CP by exactly 1—17.1% ± 0.1not listed
Sporting CP by exactly 2—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Sporting CP by exactly 3—2.9% ± 0.1not listed
Sporting CP by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Sporting CP by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Lens by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Sporting CP by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Lens 1–1 Sporting CP—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Lens 2–1 Sporting CP—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lens 1–0 Sporting CP—9.1% ± 0.1not listed
Lens 2–0 Sporting CP—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lens 0–1 Sporting CP—7.2% ± 0.1not listed

Lens v Sporting CP: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Lens to win (90 minutes)
46%
39%
YES on Lens to WinLens wins in 90 minutes
46%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 29,953 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sporting CP to win (90 minutes)
29%
36%
YES on Sporting CP to WinSporting CP wins in 90 minutes
29%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,526 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
25%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,107 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLens or Sporting CP wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%76¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 25,605 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP to WinLens wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
71%65¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 26,293 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens to WinSporting CP wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
54%62¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,724 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 721 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,282 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
83%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
78%84¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,009 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
22%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,971 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
55%
62%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
55%62¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,878 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
45%39¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,644 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
40%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
32%40¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,347 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
68%61¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
16%22¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,861 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
84%79¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
7%10¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
93%91¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,810 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
57%
65%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
57%65¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,453 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
43%36¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 463 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Winning margin
Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins by 2 goals or more
24%19¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,279 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSporting CP wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 1 goal · Lens not by 2+ goals
76%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,389 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins by 3 goals or more
10%8¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,499 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSporting CP wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lens not by 3+ goals
90%93¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 622 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Sporting CP to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSporting CP wins by 2 goals or more
12%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,336 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Sporting CP wins by 1 goal · Sporting CP not by 2+ goals
88%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 428 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Sporting CP to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSporting CP wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Sporting CP wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sporting CP not by 3+ goals
96%94¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,049 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Team goals
Lens over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
80%
Limited evidence
YES on Lens Over 0.5 GoalsLens scores 1 goal or more
80%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 668 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens Over 0.5 GoalsLens does not score · Lens under 0.5 goals
20%22¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 102 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lens over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
49%
48%
Limited evidence
YES on Lens Over 1.5 GoalsLens scores 2 goals or more
49%49¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens Over 1.5 GoalsLens scores 1 goal or fewer · Lens under 1.5 goals
51%54¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lens over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Lens Over 2.5 GoalsLens scores 3 goals or more
22%23¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,830 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lens Over 2.5 GoalsLens scores 2 goals or fewer · Lens under 2.5 goals
78%78¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
71%
80%
Limited evidence
YES on Sporting CP Over 0.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 1 goal or more
71%81¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,014 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP Over 0.5 GoalsSporting CP does not score · Sporting CP under 0.5 goals
29%22¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Sporting CP Over 1.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 2 goals or more
35%48¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,577 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP Over 1.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 1 goal or fewer · Sporting CP under 1.5 goals
65%55¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Sporting CP Over 2.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 3 goals or more
13%22¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Sporting CP Over 2.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 2 goals or fewer · Sporting CP under 2.5 goals
87%79¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 46.3% · draw 25.0% · away 28.7%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.24
Lens eligible matches
117 (115 with xG)
Sporting CP eligible matches
33 (32 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 8% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LensOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctLyonhome2–11.38–1.05W
18 SeptMonacoaway1–21.19–1.75L
13 SeptLe Mansaway2–21.62–2.59D
10 SeptSlavia Prahaaway3–2—W
5 SeptLorienthome0–11.24–1.60L
29 AugStrasbourgaway1–22.91–1.83L
Sporting CPOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 SeptGalatasarayhome3–11.75–1.23W
15 AprArsenalaway0–00.29–0.64D
7 AprArsenalhome0–10.71–1.33L
17 MarBodo/Glimthome3–0—W
11 MarBodo/Glimtaway0–30.61–2.78L
28 JanAthletic Clubaway3–21.76–0.57W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13RCLSPO-BTTS
57.4%64.5%—0.64 / 0.650.3615,453 / 463Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lens to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL
46.3%38.5%+7.8 pts0.38 / 0.390.6229,953 / 3,724Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO
28.7%35.5%−6.8 pts0.35 / 0.360.651,526 / 26,293Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-TIE
25.0%24.5%+0.5 pts0.24 / 0.250.762,107 / 25,605Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL2
24.2%18.5%—0.18 / 0.190.821,279 / 1,389Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL3
10.1%7.5%—0.07 / 0.080.933,499 / 622Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO2
12.1%17.5%—0.17 / 0.180.833,336 / 428Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO3
4.0%6.5%—0.06 / 0.070.94750 / 9,049Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lens over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL1
80.4%80.0%—0.78 / 0.820.22668 / 102Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lens over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL2
48.5%47.5%—0.46 / 0.490.545 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lens over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL3
22.5%22.5%—0.22 / 0.230.781,830 / 5Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO1
71.0%79.5%—0.78 / 0.810.221,014 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO2
35.1%46.5%—0.45 / 0.480.558,577 / 5Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO3
12.9%21.5%—0.21 / 0.220.79750 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-1
94.0%95.5%—0.95 / 0.960.05721 / 3,282Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-2
78.3%83.0%—0.82 / 0.840.1815,009 / 2,971Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-3
54.7%61.5%—0.61 / 0.620.392,878 / 1,644Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-4
32.3%39.5%—0.39 / 0.400.6110,347 / 363Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-5
16.3%21.5%—0.21 / 0.220.791,861 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-6
7.1%9.5%—0.09 / 0.100.910 / 1,810Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:09:58.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home37.7%35.8% – 39.8%40.0%2.501046.3%+8.6 pts
1x2:draw25.5%24.7% – 26.4%26.7%3.751025.0%−0.5 pts
1x2:away36.5%34.7% – 39.1%38.1%2.631028.7%−7.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:49 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.1%59.6% – 60.9%62.9%1.597——
total_goals:under:2.539.9%39.1% – 40.4%41.8%2.397——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:49 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.60 · draw 3.75 · home 2.5511/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.75 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.67 · draw 3.91 · home 2.4811/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 2.47 · draw 3.35 · home 2.3411/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 2.50 · draw 3.50 · home 2.5011/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 2.40 · draw 3.75 · home 2.6211/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.65 · draw 3.75 · home 2.5011/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.67 · draw 3.85 · home 2.6211/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.75 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.55 · draw 3.70 · home 2.5011/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.3911/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.64 · under 2.5 2.4611/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.54 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:30:4911/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:09:58.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:52 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Lensok11/10/2026, 01:39:28 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sporting CPok11/10/2026, 01:39:30 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home46.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away28.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x71.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x253.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes57.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no42.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.578.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.521.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.554.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.545.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.532.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.567.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.516.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.583.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.592.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.580.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.519.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.548.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.551.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.522.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.577.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.571.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.529.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.535.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.564.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.512.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.587.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.524.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.575.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.546.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.553.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.571.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.528.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.587.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.512.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home61.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away38.3%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 441 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:09:58