Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 07:15 PDT

VillarrealvElche

Villarreal
63%
Draw
20%
Elche
17%

Got%OnIt gives Villarreal a 63% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Villarreal and 1.1 for Elche.
  • Villarreal won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 a game.
  • Elche won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Villarreal are 10th of 20 after 8 games; Elche are 18th.
  • Villarreal have won 2 and lost 4; Elche have won 1 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Villarreal

  • L0–1at Real Madrid10 Oct
  • W3–1v Levante20 Sept
  • W3–1at Malaga17 Sept
  • L1–2v Real Betis14 Sept
  • L2–3at Borussia Dortmund8 Sept
  • L2–3v Deportivo La Coruna5 Sept

Elche

  • D0–0v Celta Vigo11 Oct
  • W3–1at Espanyol18 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Madrid15 Sept
  • D1–1at Athletic Club12 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad7 Sept
  • L2–3at Racing Santander28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Villarreal win63.3%65.5%+2.2 pts
Draw19.8%18.1%−1.8 pts
Elche win16.9%16.4%−0.5 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.23 and 1.07). Villarreal 2.23 · Elche 1.07 · total 3.30 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Villarreal–Elche)

  1. 2–19.8%
  2. 2–09.1%
  3. 1–19.0%
  4. 1–08.0%
  5. 3–17.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Villarreal

Expected goals
2.23
Scoring vs average
×1.38
Conceding vs average
×0.93

Elche

Expected goals
1.07
Scoring vs average
×0.93
Conceding vs average
×1.38
  • Villarreal (home): expected to score ×1.38 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.93 the average.
  • Elche (away): expected to score ×0.93 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.38 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Villarreal
139 matches (139 with xG)
Elche
46 matches (46 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home63.3%under-stated by 4.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 60.5%
1x2:draw19.8%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 16.0%
1x2:away16.9%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 14.2%
double_chance:1x83.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x236.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1280.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes59.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no41.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.596.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.8%
total_goals:under:0.53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.584.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.9%
total_goals:under:1.515.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.564.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.5%
total_goals:under:2.535.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.542.0%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.4%
total_goals:under:3.558.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.523.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 22.6%
total_goals:under:4.576.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.511.8%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 10.8%
total_goals:under:5.588.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.589.3%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.8%
team_total:home:under:0.510.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.565.3%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.6%
team_total:home:under:1.534.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.538.6%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.9%
team_total:home:under:2.561.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.518.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.6%
team_total:home:under:3.581.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.565.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.2%
team_total:away:under:0.534.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.529.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.5%
team_total:away:under:1.570.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.59.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.0%
team_total:away:under:2.590.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.0%
team_total:away:under:3.597.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.521.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.6%
spread:away:+2.578.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.7%
spread:home:-1.540.7%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.7%
spread:away:+1.559.3%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.6%
spread:home:-0.563.3%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 61.5%
spread:away:+0.536.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 36.0%
spread:home:+0.583.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 82.6%
spread:away:-0.516.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.8%
spread:home:+1.593.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.5%
spread:away:-1.56.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.5%
spread:home:+2.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home79.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away21.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.32 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2513980530383008014 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.21 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Villarreal win63.3%63.7% ± 0.2+0.43 pts
Draw19.8%19.3% ± 0.1−0.56 pts
Elche win16.9%17.0% ± 0.1+0.13 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.32 pts (btts:yes); 2 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Villarreal
34.5% ± 0.2 (exact 34.2%)
Elche
10.8% ± 0.1 (exact 10.7%)

Goal difference (Villarreal minus Elche)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.3% ± 0.0
  4. -31.3% ± 0.0
  5. -24.4% ± 0.1
  6. -110.9% ± 0.1
  7. 019.3% ± 0.1
  8. 122.8% ± 0.1
  9. 219.2% ± 0.1
  10. 312.0% ± 0.1
  11. 46.0% ± 0.1
  12. 52.5% ± 0.0
  13. >51.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Villarreal 2–1 Elche9.8% ± 0.19.8%
Villarreal 2–0 Elche9.2% ± 0.19.1%
Villarreal 1–1 Elche8.7% ± 0.19.0%
Villarreal 1–0 Elche8.3% ± 0.18.0%
Villarreal 3–1 Elche7.4% ± 0.17.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Villarreal
mean 2.23 · variance 2.24 · ± 0.005
Elche
mean 1.07 · variance 1.06 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move elche win by +0.8 pts (to 17.7%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Villarreal and +0.00 for Elche.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win63.3%62.6%−0.8 pts
Draw19.8%19.8%−0.0 pts
Elche win16.9%17.7%+0.8 pts
Expected goals2.23 – 1.072.18 – 1.07−0.05 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 126 · REPORTED 1 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Villarreal

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.5% of goals share out

  • T. Buchanan M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.5% · effect −4.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice P. Gulacsi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Elche

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: F. Redondo SolariESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Dituro)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move villarreal win by +1.1 pts (to 64.4%). Expected goals move −0.00 for Villarreal and −0.04 for Elche.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win63.3%64.4%+1.1 pts
Draw19.8%19.2%−0.6 pts
Elche win16.9%16.4%−0.5 pts
Expected goals2.23 – 1.072.23 – 1.03−0.00 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 126 · REPORTED 1 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Villarreal rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.54

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07272727272727275 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Elche rate ×0.96 band 0.68–1.61

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07272727272727275 · contribution -0.001 (-0.006 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move draw by −0.1 pts (to 19.7%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Villarreal and −0.04 for Elche.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Villarreal win63.3%63.4%+0.1 pts
Draw19.8%19.7%−0.1 pts
Elche win16.9%16.9%+0.0 pts
Expected goals2.23 – 1.072.18 – 1.03−0.05 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 126 · REPORTED 1 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Villarreal

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.5% of goals share out

  • T. Buchanan M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.5% · effect −4.5% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice P. Gulacsi)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Elche

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: F. Redondo SolariESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Dituro)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Villarreal rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.54

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07272727272727275 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Elche rate ×0.96 band 0.68–1.61

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07272727272727275 · contribution -0.001 (-0.006 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Villarreal win63.3%66.1%+2.8 pts
Draw19.8%18.4%−1.4 pts
Elche win16.9%15.5%−1.4 pts
Expected goals—2.33 – 1.04+0.10 / −0.03

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 565 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)G. Mikautadze 30% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Villarreal

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 92% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Mikautadze F30.0% ± 0.15.1% ± 0.10.36 ± 0.00238%
Alberto Moleiro M28.5% ± 0.14.5% ± 0.10.34 ± 0.00274%
P. Gueye M23.4% ± 0.13.1% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.00286%
A. Perez F20.8% ± 0.12.3% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00274%
G. Moreno F20.2% ± 0.12.2% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00225%
N. Pepe M18.3% ± 0.11.8% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00136%
Santi Comesaña M12.7% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00172%
T. Oluwaseyi F5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.0019%

Elche

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 51% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
Fer Niño F10.8% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00179%
G. Valera F8.4% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.001100%
M. Aguado M3.4% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00161%
V. Chust D2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.001100%
M. Neto M2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00019%
Gonzalo Villar M2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.000100%
Buba Sangare D1.9% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00075%
T. Lemar M1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00040%

Run 979 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 474, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Villarreal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Elche)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationVillarreal 3.8 d rest (short) · Elche 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:12 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Villarreal

3.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Liverpool +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.8 d before (H Napoli); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (A Liverpool) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Thu 17 SeptLLA MalagaW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptLLH LevanteW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA Real MadridL 0–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH NapoliNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Liverpool+3.2 d
  • Sat 24 OctLLA Valencia+7.1 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Manacor+10.2 d
  • Fri 30 OctLLH Espanyol+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: T. Buchanan (M) — reason unknown; N. Pepe (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Villarreal: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Alberto Moleiro · regularM8686—
P. Gueye · regularM9090—
P. GulácsiG9090—
J. FoythM5656—
Sergi CardonaD6767—
A. FreemanD9090—
Pau NavarroD9090—
Renato Veiga · regularD9018090' Portugal, 12.8 d before
Ilias AkhomachM6767—
Santi Comesaña · regularM5656—
Ayoze Pérez · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 94 minutes — Renato Veiga (90' Portugal, 12.8 d before); G. Mikautadze (4' Georgia, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Elche

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Rayo Vallecano +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptLLA EspanyolW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctLLH Celta VigoD 0–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLA Rayo Vallecano+6.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctCdRA Pinatar+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Buba Sangare (D) — reason unknown; D. Affengruber (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.5 CONFIRMED

Elche: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Germán Valera · regularD9090—
Gonzalo Villar · regularM7171—
Víctor Chust · regularD9090—
J. MorcilloD9090—
Rubén SánchezD9090—
M. Dituro · regularG9090—
Fer Niño · regularF7171—
Tete Morente · regularF5959—
R. RevivoD9018090' Israel, 12.8 d before
T. LemarM8787—
Marc Aguado · regularM9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — R. Revivo (90' Israel, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Villarreal63%64%66%
Draw20%20%19%
Elche17%15%15%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 22 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Villarreal

  • Villarreal: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L0–1at Real Madrid10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Levante20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Malaga17 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Real Betis14 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Deportivo La Coruna5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Alaves28 Aug · in model evidence

Elche

  • Elche: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D0–0v Celta Vigo11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Espanyol18 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Real Madrid15 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Athletic Club12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad7 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Racing Santander28 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal12%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more12%
Over 1.584%
Over 2.564%
Over 3.542%
Both teams score59%

Villarreal

Expected goals2.23
Scores at least once89%
Scores 2 or more65%
Clean sheet34%

Elche

Expected goals1.07
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more29%
Clean sheet11%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season10th v 18th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Villarreal

10th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L4 from 8 games · scored 13, conceded 13

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 6) · Away W1 D2 L2 (scored 7, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 2 in 8 games

Last five league games LWWLL (most recent last)

Elche

18th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L4 from 7 games · scored 11, conceded 17

Home W0 D0 L3 (scored 4, conceded 11) · Away W1 D2 L1 (scored 7, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 7 games

Last five league games WLDLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Villarreal to win63.3%63.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
Draw19.8%19.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Elche to win16.9%17.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Double chance
Villarreal or draw limited evidence83.1%83.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Elche or draw limited evidence36.7%36.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 35¢
Not a draw limited evidence80.2%80.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Draw no bet
Villarreal to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence79.0%79.0% ± 0.1no
Elche to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence21.0%21.0% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence96.1%96.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence3.9%3.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence84.4%84.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence15.6%16.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 17¢
Over 2.5 goals in total64.1%64.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
Under 2.5 goals in total35.9%36.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 36¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence42.0%42.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 44¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence58.0%58.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 58¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence23.8%23.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence76.2%76.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence11.8%11.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence88.2%88.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence59.0%58.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence41.0%41.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 43¢
Team goals
Villarreal over 0.5 goals limited evidence89.3%89.2% ± 0.1no
Villarreal under 0.5 goals limited evidence10.7%10.8% ± 0.1no
Villarreal over 1.5 goals limited evidence65.3%65.4% ± 0.2no
Villarreal under 1.5 goals limited evidence34.7%34.6% ± 0.2no
Villarreal over 2.5 goals limited evidence38.6%38.6% ± 0.2no
Villarreal under 2.5 goals limited evidence61.4%61.4% ± 0.2no
Villarreal over 3.5 goals limited evidence18.7%18.7% ± 0.1no
Villarreal under 3.5 goals limited evidence81.3%81.3% ± 0.1no
Elche over 0.5 goals limited evidence65.8%65.5% ± 0.2no
Elche under 0.5 goals limited evidence34.2%34.5% ± 0.2no
Elche over 1.5 goals limited evidence29.1%28.9% ± 0.1no
Elche under 1.5 goals limited evidence70.9%71.1% ± 0.1no
Elche over 2.5 goals limited evidence9.4%9.3% ± 0.1no
Elche under 2.5 goals limited evidence90.6%90.7% ± 0.1no
Elche over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.4%2.2% ± 0.0no
Elche under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.6%97.8% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Villarreal to win by 3 or more limited evidence21.7%21.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Villarreal to win by 2 or more limited evidence40.7%40.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 44¢
Villarreal to win by 1 or more limited evidence63.3%63.7% ± 0.2no
Villarreal not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence83.1%83.0% ± 0.1no
Villarreal not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence93.9%94.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Villarreal not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.3%98.3% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Elche to win by 3 or more limited evidence1.7%1.7% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 11¢
Elche to win by 2 or more limited evidence6.1%6.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Elche to win by 1 or more limited evidence16.9%17.0% ± 0.1no
Elche not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence36.7%36.3% ± 0.2no
Elche not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence59.3%59.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 59¢
Elche not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence78.3%78.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Clean sheet
Villarreal clean sheet grid34.2%34.5% ± 0.2no
Elche clean sheet grid10.7%10.8% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—19.3% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 1—22.8% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 2—19.2% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 3—12.0% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 4—6.0% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal by exactly 5—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Elche by exactly 1—10.9% ± 0.1not listed
Elche by exactly 2—4.4% ± 0.1not listed
Elche by exactly 3—1.3% ± 0.0not listed
Elche by exactly 4—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Elche by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Villarreal by 6 or more—1.3% ± 0.0not listed
Elche by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Villarreal 2–1 Elche—9.8% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 2–0 Elche—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 1–1 Elche—8.7% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 1–0 Elche—8.3% ± 0.1not listed
Villarreal 3–1 Elche—7.4% ± 0.1not listed

Villarreal v Elche: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Elche to win (90 minutes)
17%
15%
YES on Elche to WinElche wins in 90 minutes
17%16¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,384 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
20%
19%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
20%19¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 179 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
63%
66%
YES on Villarreal to WinVillarreal wins in 90 minutes
63%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawVillarreal or Elche wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
80%82¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 979 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Elche to WinVillarreal wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
83%86¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,143 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Villarreal to WinElche wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
37%35¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 986 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 49 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
84%
85%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
84%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
16%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,157 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
64%
65%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
64%66¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 669 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
36%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,897 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
42%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,669 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
58%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 256 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
25%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
24%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 685 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
76%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,093 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
12%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 688 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
88%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 696 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
59%
58%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
59%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 672 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
41%43¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 972 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Winning margin
Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Elche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsElche wins by 2 goals or more
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,399 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Elche to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 1 goal · Elche not by 2+ goals
94%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 150 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Elche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsElche wins by 3 goals or more
2%11¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Elche to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins or the match is drawn, or Elche wins by 2 goals or fewer · Elche not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 2 goals or more
41%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,419 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsElche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 1 goal · Villarreal not by 2+ goals
59%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,667 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVillarreal wins by 3 goals or more
22%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 486 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Villarreal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsElche wins or the match is drawn, or Villarreal wins by 2 goals or fewer · Villarreal not by 3+ goals
78%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,215 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 63.3% · draw 19.8% · away 16.9%
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.07
Villarreal eligible matches
139 (139 with xG)
Elche eligible matches
46 (46 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

VillarrealOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctReal Madridaway0–10.64–0.99L
20 SeptLevantehome3–14.27–0.45W
17 SeptMalagaaway3–13.33–0.63W
14 SeptReal Betishome1–21.89–3.52L
8 SeptBorussia Dortmundaway2–31.34–2.83L
5 SeptDeportivo La Corunahome2–31.14–0.79L
ElcheOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctCelta Vigohome0–00.69–0.34D
18 SeptEspanyolaway3–11.61–1.05W
15 SeptReal Madridhome2–30.78–3.61L
12 SeptAthletic Clubaway1–10.84–2.39D
7 SeptReal Sociedadhome2–32.47–0.58L
28 AugRacing Santanderaway2–31.03–1.72L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VILELC-BTTS
59.0%58.0%+1.0 pts0.57 / 0.590.43672 / 972Comparable
seen 22 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Elche to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-ELC
16.9%15.0%+1.9 pts0.14 / 0.160.864,384 / 1,143Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-VIL
63.3%65.5%−2.2 pts0.65 / 0.660.35330 / 986Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VILELC-TIE
19.8%18.5%+1.3 pts0.18 / 0.190.82179 / 979Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Elche to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC2
6.1%5.0%+1.1 pts0.02 / 0.080.981,399 / 150Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Elche to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-ELC3
1.7%6.0%−4.3 pts0.01 / 0.110.993 / 300Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL2
40.7%42.5%−1.8 pts0.41 / 0.440.592,419 / 2,667Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Villarreal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VILELC-VIL3
21.7%23.5%−1.8 pts0.22 / 0.250.78486 / 1,215Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-1
96.1%95.5%+0.6 pts0.94 / 0.970.0617 / 49Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-2
84.4%84.5%−0.1 pts0.83 / 0.860.17676 / 1,157Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-3
64.1%65.0%−0.9 pts0.64 / 0.660.36669 / 2,897Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-4
42.0%43.0%−1.0 pts0.42 / 0.440.581,669 / 256Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-5
23.8%24.5%−0.7 pts0.23 / 0.260.77685 / 1,093Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VILELC-6
11.8%12.0%−0.2 pts0.11 / 0.130.89688 / 696Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:12:36.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home64.2%62.4% – 66.2%68.3%1.471063.3%−0.8 pts
1x2:draw20.3%19.4% – 21.5%21.6%4.631019.8%−0.5 pts
1x2:away15.5%14.3% – 17.0%16.6%6.021016.9%+1.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.564.3%63.3% – 66.3%69.0%1.45764.1%−0.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.535.7%33.7% – 36.7%38.2%2.62735.9%+0.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:21 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 6.55 · draw 4.75 · home 1.4711/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 6.50 · draw 4.75 · home 1.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 6.04 · draw 4.84 · home 1.4611/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 5.22 · draw 4.29 · home 1.4211/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 6.00 · draw 4.50 · home 1.4411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 6.00 · draw 4.33 · home 1.4811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 5.80 · draw 4.90 · home 1.4811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 6.73 · draw 4.88 · home 1.5111/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 6.30 · draw 4.50 · home 1.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 5.75 · draw 4.50 · home 1.4411/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.48 · under 2.5 2.6511/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2111/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:12:36.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:08 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Villarrealok11/10/2026, 01:39:14 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Elcheok11/10/2026, 01:39:19 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home63.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw19.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away16.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x83.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x236.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1280.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes59.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no41.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.584.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.515.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.564.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.535.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.542.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.558.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.523.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.576.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.511.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.588.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.589.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.510.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.565.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.534.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.538.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.561.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.518.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.581.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.565.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.534.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.529.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.570.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.521.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.578.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.540.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.559.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.563.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.536.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.583.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.516.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home79.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away21.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 474 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:12:36