Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

VikingvBayern München

Viking
8%
Draw
12%
Bayern München
81%

Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a 81% chance of winning. That is roughly 4 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 1 UEFA Champions League match for Viking, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.0 goals for Viking and 3.2 for Bayern München.
  • Viking won 0 of the 1 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.0 a game.
  • Bayern München won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 1 UEFA Champions League match for Viking, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Viking are 29th of 36 after 1 games; Bayern München are 2nd.
  • Viking have won 0 and lost 1; Bayern München have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Viking

  • L1–3at VfB Stuttgart9 Sept

Bayern München

  • D2–2at FC Augsburg10 Oct
  • W7–0v Union Berlin18 Sept
  • W2–1at SV Elversberg13 Sept
  • W5–0v Bodo/Glimt10 Sept
  • D0–0at FC Schalke 045 Sept
  • W5–1v VfB Stuttgart28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Viking win7.6%11.9%+4.2 pts
Draw11.8%14.2%+2.4 pts
Bayern München win80.6%74.0%−6.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–3 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 0.96 and 3.20). Viking 0.96 · Bayern München 3.20 · total 4.17 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Viking–Bayern München)

  1. 0–38.5%
  2. 1–38.2%
  3. 0–28.0%
  4. 1–27.7%
  5. 0–46.8%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9995).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Viking

Expected goals
0.96
Scoring vs average
×0.51
Conceding vs average
×2.42

Bayern München

Expected goals
3.20
Scoring vs average
×2.42
Conceding vs average
×0.51
  • Viking (home): expected to score ×0.51 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×2.42 the average.
  • Bayern München (away): expected to score ×2.42 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.51 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Viking
1 matches (0 with xG)
Bayern München
148 matches (147 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 48)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home7.6%under-stated by 3.6 pts on 500 matches (this competition); conservative 6.4%
1x2:draw11.8%over-stated by 3.5 pts on 125 matches (this competition); conservative 5.4%
1x2:away80.6%under-stated by 12.6 pts on 38 matches (this competition); conservative 74.1%
double_chance:1x19.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x292.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1288.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes59.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no40.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.592.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.57.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.578.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.521.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.559.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.540.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.540.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.559.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.524.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.575.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.561.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.538.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.525.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.574.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.57.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.592.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.595.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.54.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.582.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.517.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.562.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.537.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.539.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.560.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.52.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.597.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.57.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.592.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.519.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.580.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.537.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.562.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.557.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.542.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home8.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away91.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.13 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 1791128704252754039 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.20 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Viking win7.6%7.8% ± 0.1+0.16 pts
Draw11.8%11.5% ± 0.1−0.31 pts
Bayern München win80.6%80.7% ± 0.1+0.14 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.13 pts (team_total:home:under:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Viking
4.0% ± 0.1 (exact 4.1%)
Bayern München
38.2% ± 0.2 (exact 38.1%)

Goal difference (Viking minus Bayern München)

  1. <-56.1% ± 0.1
  2. -57.2% ± 0.1
  3. -412.3% ± 0.1
  4. -317.3% ± 0.1
  5. -220.0% ± 0.1
  6. -117.7% ± 0.1
  7. 011.5% ± 0.1
  8. 15.5% ± 0.1
  9. 21.8% ± 0.0
  10. 30.4% ± 0.0
  11. 40.1% ± 0.0
  12. 50.0% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Viking 0–3 Bayern München8.5% ± 0.18.5%
Viking 1–3 Bayern München8.1% ± 0.18.2%
Viking 0–2 Bayern München8.0% ± 0.18.0%
Viking 1–2 Bayern München7.6% ± 0.17.7%
Viking 0–4 Bayern München6.8% ± 0.16.8%

Expected goals (simulated)

Viking
mean 0.96 · variance 0.96 · ± 0.003
Bayern München
mean 3.21 · variance 3.22 · ± 0.006

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move bayern münchen win by −0.8 pts (to 79.8%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Viking and −0.07 for Bayern München.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Viking win7.6%8.2%+0.5 pts
Draw11.8%12.0%+0.2 pts
Bayern München win80.6%79.8%−0.8 pts
Expected goals0.96 – 3.200.96 – 3.13+0.00 / −0.07

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Viking

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • A. Baertelsen Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Bjorshol D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • V. Berisha Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Roseth Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Frimpong Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Ostbo)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Bayern München

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.6% of goals share out

  • J. Musiala M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −4.6% REPORTED
  • T. Buchmann Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Neuer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move bayern münchen win by −2.9 pts (to 77.7%). Expected goals move +0.04 for Viking and −0.18 for Bayern München.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Viking win7.6%9.3%+1.7 pts
Draw11.8%13.0%+1.2 pts
Bayern München win80.6%77.7%−2.9 pts
Expected goals0.96 – 3.201.01 – 3.02+0.04 / −0.18

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Viking rate ×1.04 band 0.78–1.34

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05252525252525264 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Bayern München rate ×0.94 band 0.75–1.28

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05252525252525264 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move bayern münchen win by −3.8 pts (to 76.7%). Expected goals move +0.04 for Viking and −0.25 for Bayern München.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Viking win7.6%9.8%+2.2 pts
Draw11.8%13.5%+1.7 pts
Bayern München win80.6%76.7%−3.8 pts
Expected goals0.96 – 3.201.01 – 2.95+0.04 / −0.25

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Viking

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • A. Baertelsen Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Bjorshol D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • V. Berisha Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Roseth Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • K. Frimpong Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Ostbo)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Bayern München

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.6% of goals share out

  • J. Musiala M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −4.6% REPORTED
  • T. Buchmann Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Neuer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Viking rate ×1.04 band 0.78–1.34

  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05252525252525264 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Bayern München rate ×0.94 band 0.75–1.28

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05252525252525264 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Viking win7.6%14.0%+6.4 pts
Draw11.8%15.7%+3.9 pts
Bayern München win80.6%70.3%−10.3 pts
Expected goals—1.21 – 2.79+0.25 / −0.41

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 186 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)H. Kane 65% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Viking

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
Z. Tripic F41.0% ± 0.29.7% ± 0.10.53 ± 0.002100%
P. Christiansen F16.4% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.001100%
T. Moi M13.8% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.001100%
E. Austbo F10.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00159%

Bayern München

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Kane M65.3% ± 0.228.4% ± 0.11.05 ± 0.00391%
M. Olise M43.9% ± 0.211.5% ± 0.10.58 ± 0.00288%
L. Diaz M33.0% ± 0.16.3% ± 0.10.40 ± 0.00286%
A. Pavlovic M8.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00190%
L. Karl M7.0% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00127%
D. Upamecano D6.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00188%
J. Stanišić D4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00171%
A. Davies D3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00167%

Run 953 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 448, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayern München)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Viking)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationViking schedule unknown · Bayern München 3.2 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Viking

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Aston Villa +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Aston Villa+8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 3 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: regulars not defined yet (fewer than 5 stored line-ups) CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Viking: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
T. MoiM00—
K. AskildsenM00—
H. HeggheimD00—
P. ChristiansenF00—
K. HaugenD00—
A. OstboG00—
G. StensnessD00—
J. DalandD00—
J. BellM00—
Z. TripicF00—
H. BjordalF00—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Bayern München

3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H RB Leipzig +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptBLH Union BerlinW 7–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA FC AugsburgD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctBLH RB Leipzig+3.9 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Arsenal+8 d
  • Sun 25 OctBLA SC Freiburg+11.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Laimer (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.3 CONFIRMED

Bayern München: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
I. SaibariM6767—
H. Kane · regularF9024270' England, 10.1 d before; 82' England, 7 d before
L. Díaz · regularM8787—
A. Pavlović · regularM8726588' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before
J. Kimmich · regularM9090—
J. Tah · regularD9090—
M. Neuer · regularG9090—
M. Olise · regularM9021090' France, 11 d before; 30' France, 8 d before
A. DaviesD9090—
D. Upamecano · regularD9018090' France, 11 d before
J. Stanišić · regularD6723376' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before

International duty in 14 days: 9 players, 1156 minutes — T. Bischof (77' Germany, 12 d before; 83' Germany, 9 d before); J. Urbig (90' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); L. Karl (0' Germany, 12 d before; 64' Germany, 9 d before); S. Gnabry (46' Germany, 12 d before); H. Kane (70' England, 10.1 d before; 82' England, 7 d before); A. Pavlović (88' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); M. Olise (90' France, 11 d before; 30' France, 8 d before); D. Upamecano (90' France, 11 d before); J. Stanišić (76' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 2 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Viking

  • A. Baertelsen · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Missing Fixture
  • K. Frimpong · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Roseth · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • S. Bjorshol · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • V. Berisha · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture

Bayern München

  • J. Musiala · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Buchmann · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Viking8%5%4%
Draw12%7%6%
Bayern München81%88%90%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 27 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (81% vs 90%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence3 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Viking

  • Viking: 3 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 100%.
  • L1–3at VfB Stuttgart9 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1v Dinamo Zagreb26 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D2–2at Dinamo Zagreb18 Aug · not in model evidence

Bayern München

  • Bayern München: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 3.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W5–0v Bodo/Glimt10 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Paris Saint Germain6 May · in model evidence
  • L4–5at Paris Saint Germain28 Apr · in model evidence
  • W4–3v Real Madrid15 Apr · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Real Madrid7 Apr · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Atalanta18 Mar · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals2%
1 goal6%
2 goals14%
3 goals19%
4 goals19%
5 goals16%
6 or more24%
Over 1.592%
Over 2.579%
Over 3.560%
Both teams score59%

Viking

Expected goals0.96
Scores at least once62%
Scores 2 or more25%
Clean sheet4%

Bayern München

Expected goals3.20
Scores at least once96%
Scores 2 or more83%
Clean sheet38%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability7 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

7 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 2 h ago.

Viking

  • A. BaertelsenOutFoot Injury
  • K. FrimpongOutOff the roster
  • M. RosethOutKnee Injury
  • S. BjorsholOutKnee Injury
  • V. BerishaOutThigh Injury

Bayern München

  • J. MusialaOutMuscle Injury
  • T. BuchmannOutKnee Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season29th v 2nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Viking

29th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 3

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 3 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Bayern München

2nd of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 5, conceded 0

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Viking to win7.6%7.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 4¢
Draw11.8%11.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Bayern München to win80.6%80.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 90¢
Double chance
Viking or draw limited evidence19.4%19.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 11¢
Bayern München or draw limited evidence92.4%92.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Not a draw limited evidence88.2%88.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Draw no bet
Viking to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence8.6%8.8% ± 0.1no
Bayern München to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence91.4%91.2% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence98.3%98.5% ± 0.0yes · YES · no resting ask
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence1.7%1.5% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 2¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence92.1%92.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 96¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence7.9%8.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 2.5 goals in total78.5%78.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢
Under 2.5 goals in total21.5%21.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 15¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence59.9%59.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 69¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence40.1%40.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 32¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence40.4%40.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 50¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence59.6%59.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence24.1%24.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence75.9%75.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence59.5%59.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 56¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence40.5%40.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Team goals
Viking over 0.5 goals limited evidence61.9%61.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
Viking under 0.5 goals limited evidence38.1%38.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 46¢
Viking over 1.5 goals limited evidence25.1%25.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Viking under 1.5 goals limited evidence74.9%75.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Viking over 2.5 goals limited evidence7.4%7.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Viking under 2.5 goals limited evidence92.6%92.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Viking over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.7%1.6% ± 0.0no
Viking under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.3%98.4% ± 0.0no
Bayern München over 0.5 goals limited evidence95.9%96.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 99¢
Bayern München under 0.5 goals limited evidence4.1%4.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 3¢
Bayern München over 1.5 goals limited evidence82.9%82.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 92¢
Bayern München under 1.5 goals limited evidence17.1%17.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 12¢
Bayern München over 2.5 goals limited evidence62.1%62.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 74¢
Bayern München under 2.5 goals limited evidence37.9%37.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 28¢
Bayern München over 3.5 goals limited evidence39.8%40.0% ± 0.2no
Bayern München under 3.5 goals limited evidence60.2%60.0% ± 0.2no
Winning margin
Viking to win by 3 or more limited evidence—0.6% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 2¢
Viking to win by 2 or more limited evidence2.4%2.3% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 2¢
Viking to win by 1 or more limited evidence7.6%7.8% ± 0.1no
Viking not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence19.4%19.3% ± 0.1no
Viking not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence37.1%37.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 26¢
Viking not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence57.1%57.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Bayern München to win by 3 or more limited evidence42.9%43.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
Bayern München to win by 2 or more limited evidence62.9%63.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 76¢
Bayern München to win by 1 or more limited evidence80.6%80.7% ± 0.1no
Bayern München not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence92.4%92.2% ± 0.1no
Bayern München not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence97.6%97.7% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Bayern München not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence—99.4% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Clean sheet
Viking clean sheet grid4.1%4.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 3¢
Bayern München clean sheet grid38.1%38.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 46¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Viking by exactly 1—5.5% ± 0.1not listed
Viking by exactly 2—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Viking by exactly 3—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Viking by exactly 4—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Viking by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Bayern München by exactly 1—17.7% ± 0.1not listed
Bayern München by exactly 2—20.0% ± 0.1not listed
Bayern München by exactly 3—17.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bayern München by exactly 4—12.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bayern München by exactly 5—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
Viking by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Bayern München by 6 or more—6.1% ± 0.1not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Viking 0–3 Bayern München—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Viking 1–3 Bayern München—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Viking 0–2 Bayern München—8.0% ± 0.1not listed
Viking 1–2 Bayern München—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Viking 0–4 Bayern München—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

Viking v Bayern München: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Bayern München to win (90 minutes)
81%
90%
YES on Bayern München to WinBayern München wins in 90 minutes
81%90¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 204,360 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
12%
6%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
12%6¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,263 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Viking to win (90 minutes)
8%
4%
YES on Viking to WinViking wins in 90 minutes
8%4¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 636 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawViking or Bayern München wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
88%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 33,426 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München to WinViking wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
19%11¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,726 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking to WinBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
92%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 49,280 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
98%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
98%—
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
2%2¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,204 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
92%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
92%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 13,435 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
8%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 906 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
79%
86%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
79%86¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,808 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
21%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 704 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
69%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
60%69¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,163 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
40%32¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
40%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
40%50¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,357 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
60%51¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
24%32¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,232 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
76%70¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,317 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
59%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
59%56¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 24,487 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
41%45¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old
Winning margin
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
63%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 2 goals or more
63%76¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,499 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsViking wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 1 goal · Bayern München not by 2+ goals
37%26¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,275 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
43%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 3 goals or more
43%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,937 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsViking wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bayern München not by 3+ goals
57%44¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,678 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Viking to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
2%
Limited evidence
YES on Viking to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsViking wins by 2 goals or more
2%2¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,158 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or Viking wins by 1 goal · Viking not by 2+ goals
98%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Viking to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
—
—
Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote
YES on Viking to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsViking wins by 3 goals or more
—2¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,838 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or Viking wins by 2 goals or fewer · Viking not by 3+ goals
——
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy
Team goals
Bayern München over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
98%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München Over 0.5 GoalsBayern München scores 1 goal or more
96%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,212 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München Over 0.5 GoalsBayern München does not score · Bayern München under 0.5 goals
4%3¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 61 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Bayern München over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
83%
90%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München Over 1.5 GoalsBayern München scores 2 goals or more
83%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,725 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München Over 1.5 GoalsBayern München scores 1 goal or fewer · Bayern München under 1.5 goals
17%12¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 47 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Bayern München over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
62%
73%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayern München Over 2.5 GoalsBayern München scores 3 goals or more
62%74¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 53 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Bayern München Over 2.5 GoalsBayern München scores 2 goals or fewer · Bayern München under 2.5 goals
38%28¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 75 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Viking over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
62%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Viking Over 0.5 GoalsViking scores 1 goal or more
62%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking Over 0.5 GoalsViking does not score · Viking under 0.5 goals
38%46¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 130 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Viking over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on Viking Over 1.5 GoalsViking scores 2 goals or more
25%22¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,171 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking Over 1.5 GoalsViking scores 1 goal or fewer · Viking under 1.5 goals
75%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 131 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Viking over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Viking Over 2.5 GoalsViking scores 3 goals or more
7%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,188 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Viking Over 2.5 GoalsViking scores 2 goals or fewer · Viking under 2.5 goals
93%94¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 7.6% · draw 11.8% · away 80.6%
Expected goals
0.96 – 3.20
Viking eligible matches
1 (0 with xG)
Bayern München eligible matches
148 (147 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: home side has 1 eligible match; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • thin evidence: home side has 1 eligible match
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 9% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's draw probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

VikingOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 SeptVfB Stuttgartaway1–3—L
Bayern MünchenOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFC Augsburgaway2–25.08–2.45D
18 SeptUnion Berlinhome7–03.71–0.34W
13 SeptSV Elversbergaway2–12.83–0.94W
10 SeptBodo/Glimthome5–0—W
5 SeptFC Schalke 04away0–01.94–0.21D
28 AugVfB Stuttgarthome5–14.06–0.79W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13VIKBMU-BTTS
59.5%55.5%—0.55 / 0.560.4524,487 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayern München to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU
80.6%89.5%−8.9 pts0.89 / 0.900.11204,360 / 2,726Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Viking to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK
7.6%3.5%+4.1 pts0.03 / 0.040.97636 / 49,280Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-TIE
11.8%5.5%+6.3 pts0.05 / 0.060.951,263 / 33,426Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU2
62.9%75.0%—0.74 / 0.760.263,499 / 4,275Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU3
42.9%56.5%—0.56 / 0.570.441,937 / 7,678Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Viking to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK2
2.4%1.5%—0.01 / 0.020.996,158 / 250Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Viking to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK3
———— / 0.02—2,838 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayern München over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU1
95.9%98.0%—0.97 / 0.990.032,212 / 61Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bayern München over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU2
82.9%90.0%—0.88 / 0.920.121,725 / 47Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bayern München over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU3
62.1%73.0%—0.72 / 0.740.2853 / 75Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Viking over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK1
61.9%55.5%—0.54 / 0.570.46750 / 130Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Viking over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK2
25.1%20.0%—0.18 / 0.220.821,171 / 131Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Viking over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK3
7.4%6.5%—0.06 / 0.070.941,188 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-1
98.3%——0.98 / —0.020 / 4,204Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-2
92.1%95.5%—0.95 / 0.960.0513,435 / 906Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-3
78.5%85.5%—0.85 / 0.860.152,808 / 704Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-4
59.9%68.5%—0.68 / 0.690.329,163 / 850Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-5
40.4%49.5%—0.49 / 0.500.518,357 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-6
24.1%31.0%—0.30 / 0.320.701,232 / 3,317Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:07:52.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home4.6%3.9% – 7.2%4.8%21.00107.6%+3.1 pts
1x2:draw7.4%6.4% – 10.4%7.7%13.001011.8%+4.5 pts
1x2:away87.9%82.5% – 89.7%91.7%1.091080.6%−7.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.582.3%80.9% – 84.4%89.3%1.126——
total_goals:under:2.517.7%15.6% – 19.1%19.1%5.256——

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (16)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.09 · draw 13.00 · home 21.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.08 · draw 14.00 · home 21.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.09 · draw 14.42 · home 18.7611/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 1.09 · draw 8.68 · home 12.5211/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 1.08 · draw 13.00 · home 21.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 1.08 · draw 13.00 · home 19.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.11 · draw 12.00 · home 19.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.10 · draw 15.50 · home 25.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.10 · draw 10.50 · home 23.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.07 · draw 11.00 · home 21.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.9511/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 6.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.14 · under 2.5 5.5011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.9511/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 5.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.13 · under 2.5 5.5011/10/2026, 09:30:5411/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:07:52.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:56 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Vikingok11/10/2026, 01:39:43 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Bayern Münchenok11/10/2026, 01:39:28 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home7.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw11.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away80.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x19.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x292.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1288.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes59.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no40.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.592.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.57.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.578.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.521.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.559.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.540.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.540.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.559.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.524.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.575.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.561.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.538.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.525.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.574.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.57.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.592.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.595.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.54.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.582.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.517.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.562.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.537.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.539.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.560.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.519.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.580.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.537.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.562.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.557.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.542.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home8.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away91.4%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 448 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:07:52