Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Serie A·Fri 16 Oct, 11:45 PDT

FrosinonevSassuolo

Frosinone
42%
Draw
24%
Sassuolo
34%

Got%OnIt gives Frosinone a 42% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Frosinone and 1.5 for Sassuolo.
  • Frosinone won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Sassuolo won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Frosinone are 9th of 20 after 6 games; Sassuolo are 10th.
  • Frosinone have won 3 and lost 2; Sassuolo have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Frosinone

  • L0–3at Napoli10 Oct
  • W2–0v Como20 Sept
  • D1–1at Genoa12 Sept
  • W3–2v Venezia6 Sept
  • W3–0at Fiorentina29 Aug
  • L0–1v Juventus23 Aug

Sassuolo

  • D1–1v AC Milan11 Oct
  • L1–2at Monza18 Sept
  • W3–2v Juventus13 Sept
  • D2–2at Bologna6 Sept
  • W2–1v Torino29 Aug
  • L1–2at Atalanta23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Frosinone win41.7%42.5%+0.8 pts
Draw24.1%24.3%+0.1 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%33.3%−0.9 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.66 and 1.48). Frosinone 1.66 · Sassuolo 1.48 · total 3.14 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Frosinone–Sassuolo)

  1. 1–110.9%
  2. 2–18.8%
  3. 1–27.9%
  4. 1–06.9%
  5. 2–26.5%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Frosinone

Expected goals
1.66
Scoring vs average
×1.27
Conceding vs average
×1.25

Sassuolo

Expected goals
1.48
Scoring vs average
×1.25
Conceding vs average
×1.27
  • Frosinone (home): expected to score ×1.27 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.25 the average.
  • Sassuolo (away): expected to score ×1.25 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.27 the average.
  • Recent 378 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.31 home and 1.19 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.10).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Frosinone
44 matches (43 with xG)
Sassuolo
82 matches (82 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home41.7%over-stated by 1.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 38.5%
1x2:draw24.1%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 21.6%
1x2:away34.2%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 32.0%
double_chance:1x65.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x258.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes62.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no37.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.4%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.1%
total_goals:under:0.54.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.582.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.9%
total_goals:under:1.517.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.560.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 60.1%
total_goals:under:2.539.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.538.4%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.8%
total_goals:under:3.561.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.520.9%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 19.5%
total_goals:under:4.579.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.9%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 7.9%
total_goals:under:5.590.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.580.9%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.4%
team_total:home:under:0.519.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.549.4%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.7%
team_total:home:under:1.550.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.523.2%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.6%
team_total:home:under:2.576.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.58.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.7%
team_total:home:under:3.591.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.577.3%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.8%
team_total:away:under:0.522.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.543.7%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 43.0%
team_total:away:under:1.556.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.518.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.2%
team_total:away:under:2.581.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.56.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.9%
team_total:away:under:3.593.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.58.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.0%
spread:away:+2.591.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.7%
spread:home:-1.521.5%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 19.6%
spread:away:+1.578.5%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.9%
spread:home:-0.541.7%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 39.8%
spread:away:+0.558.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 57.7%
spread:home:+0.565.8%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.2%
spread:away:-0.534.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.0%
spread:home:+1.583.8%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.3%
spread:away:-1.516.2%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.4%
spread:home:+2.593.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.56.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home54.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away45.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.43 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 8552790630101377785 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.15 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Frosinone win41.7%42.1% ± 0.2+0.43 pts
Draw24.1%23.7% ± 0.1−0.47 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%34.2% ± 0.2+0.04 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.43 pts (team_total:away:under:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Frosinone
22.7% ± 0.1 (exact 22.7%)
Sassuolo
19.0% ± 0.1 (exact 19.1%)

Goal difference (Frosinone minus Sassuolo)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.3% ± 0.0
  3. -41.4% ± 0.0
  4. -34.2% ± 0.1
  5. -210.1% ± 0.1
  6. -118.1% ± 0.1
  7. 023.7% ± 0.1
  8. 120.3% ± 0.1
  9. 212.8% ± 0.1
  10. 36.0% ± 0.1
  11. 42.2% ± 0.0
  12. 50.7% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Frosinone 1–1 Sassuolo10.8% ± 0.110.9%
Frosinone 2–1 Sassuolo8.8% ± 0.18.8%
Frosinone 1–2 Sassuolo7.7% ± 0.17.9%
Frosinone 1–0 Sassuolo7.1% ± 0.16.9%
Frosinone 0–1 Sassuolo6.5% ± 0.16.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Frosinone
mean 1.66 · variance 1.66 · ± 0.004
Sassuolo
mean 1.48 · variance 1.48 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move frosinone win by +1.6 pts (to 43.3%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Frosinone and −0.06 for Sassuolo.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Frosinone win41.7%43.3%+1.6 pts
Draw24.1%23.8%−0.4 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%33.0%−1.2 pts
Expected goals1.66 – 1.481.66 – 1.42+0.00 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 78 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 62 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Frosinone

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Palmisani)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sassuolo

Attack ×0.96 band 0.94–0.98 ESTIMATED · 8.6% of goals share out

  • F. Cande D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Y. Paz D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • D. Boloca M Missing Fixture (Muscle Bruise) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • I. Kone M Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 8.6% · effect −8.6% REPORTED
  • E. Pieragnolo D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Muric)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 23.6%). Expected goals move −0.00 for Frosinone and +0.00 for Sassuolo.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Frosinone win41.7%41.9%+0.2 pts
Draw24.1%23.6%−0.6 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%34.5%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.66 – 1.481.66 – 1.49−0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 78 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 62 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Frosinone rate ×1.00 band 0.86–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12121212121212122 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.14747474747474743 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.012) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Sassuolo rate ×1.00 band 0.86–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.14747474747474743 · contribution -0.002 (-0.013 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12121212121212122 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move frosinone win by +1.5 pts (to 43.2%). Expected goals move −0.00 for Frosinone and −0.06 for Sassuolo.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Frosinone win41.7%43.2%+1.5 pts
Draw24.1%23.8%−0.4 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%33.0%−1.2 pts
Expected goals1.66 – 1.481.66 – 1.42−0.00 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 78 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 62 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Frosinone

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Palmisani)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sassuolo

Attack ×0.96 band 0.94–0.98 ESTIMATED · 8.6% of goals share out

  • F. Cande D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Y. Paz D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • D. Boloca M Missing Fixture (Muscle Bruise) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • I. Kone M Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 8.6% · effect −8.6% REPORTED
  • E. Pieragnolo D Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Muric)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Frosinone rate ×1.00 band 0.86–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12121212121212122 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.14747474747474743 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.012) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Sassuolo rate ×1.00 band 0.86–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.14747474747474743 · contribution -0.002 (-0.013 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12121212121212122 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Frosinone win41.7%42.0%+0.3 pts
Draw24.1%23.5%−0.6 pts
Sassuolo win34.2%34.5%+0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.67 – 1.49+0.01 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 539 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)G. Kvernadze 50% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Frosinone

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Kvernadze M49.5% ± 0.215.2% ± 0.10.69 ± 0.00391%
A. Raimondo F45.2% ± 0.212.2% ± 0.10.60 ± 0.00287%
G. Calo M12.7% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00187%
G. Bracaglia D11.8% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00186%
M. Cichella M6.0% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00115%
A. Terzic D4.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00110%

Sassuolo

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 70% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Berardi F18.8% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00161%
A. Lauriente F16.4% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00191%
V. Adzic M9.3% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00152%
K. Thorstvedt M8.3% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00148%
C. Volpato M7.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00139%
C. Odenthal D5.3% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00120%
J. Doig D4.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00184%
S. Esposito F3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00155%

Run 966 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 461, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sassuolo)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Frosinone)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Serie A matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationFrosinone 6 d rest · Sassuolo 5 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Frosinone

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Atalanta +8.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH ComoW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAA NapoliL 0–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctSAA Atalanta+8.8 d
  • Thu 29 OctSAH Lecce+12.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.1 CONFIRMED

Frosinone: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
G. Calò · regularM9090—
A. OyonoD9090—
R. Schmid · regularM8314562' Austria, 12.1 d before
A. Raimondo · regularF6363—
G. Bracaglia · regularD7676—
G. Kvernadze · regularM9011727' Georgia, 14 d before; 0' Georgia, 11 d before
F. GhedjemisM6363—
P. MasiniM4545—
L. Palmisani · regularG9090—
G. Calvani · regularD9090—
G. CittadiniD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 161 minutes — A. Terzić (72' Serbia, 12 d before); R. Schmid (62' Austria, 12.1 d before); G. Kvernadze (27' Georgia, 14 d before; 0' Georgia, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Sassuolo

5.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Como +7.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptSAA MonzaL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH AC MilanD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAA Como+7.8 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAH Lazio+10.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 26 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.7 CONFIRMED

Sassuolo: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Murić · regularG90900' Kosovo, 12.1 d before
F. LeysenD2626—
N. Matić · regularM7979—
A. Laurienté · regularF9090—
S. EspositoF6014080' Italy, 14 d before; 0' Italy, 11 d before
D. BerardiF9090—
D. BakolaM9090—
Vasilije AdžićM6015090' Montenegro, 11 d before
J. Doig · regularD90900' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 10 d before
D. Ćaleta-CarD9090—
I. Van der BremptD7979—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 269 minutes — K. Bowie (75' Scotland, 13 d before; 24' Scotland, 10 d before); S. Esposito (80' Italy, 14 d before; 0' Italy, 11 d before); Vasilije Adžić (90' Montenegro, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Frosinone

None reported for this team.

Sassuolo

  • D. Boloca · injury / absence: Muscle Bruise · Missing Fixture
  • E. Pieragnolo · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • Fali Candé · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • I. Koné · injury / absence: Broken Leg · Missing Fixture
  • Y. Paz · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Frosinone42%39%38%
Draw24%27%27%
Sassuolo34%34%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Frosinone

  • Frosinone: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 20%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–3at Napoli10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Como20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Genoa12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Venezia6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0at Fiorentina29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Juventus23 Aug · in model evidence

Sassuolo

  • Sassuolo: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1v AC Milan11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Monza18 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Juventus13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Bologna6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Torino29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Atalanta23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal13%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.561%
Over 3.538%
Both teams score63%

Frosinone

Expected goals1.66
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more49%
Clean sheet23%

Sassuolo

Expected goals1.48
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability5 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

5 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Frosinone

Nobody listed for this team.

Sassuolo

  • D. BolocaOutMuscle Bruise
  • E. PieragnoloOutJumpers Knee
  • Fali CandéOutJumpers Knee
  • I. KonéOutBroken Leg
  • Y. PazOutJumpers Knee

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season9th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Frosinone

9th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L2 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 7

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LWDWW (most recent last)

Sassuolo

10th of 20 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L2 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 9

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 3) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Frosinone to win41.7%42.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢
Draw24.1%23.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Sassuolo to win34.2%34.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Double chance
Frosinone or draw limited evidence65.8%65.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 65¢
Sassuolo or draw limited evidence58.3%57.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 63¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.9%76.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Draw no bet
Frosinone to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence54.9%55.2% ± 0.2no
Sassuolo to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence45.1%44.8% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.4%95.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.6%4.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence82.4%82.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence17.6%17.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 17¢
Over 2.5 goals in total60.8%60.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 64¢
Under 2.5 goals in total39.2%39.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 38¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence38.4%38.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 41¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence61.6%61.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 60¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence20.9%20.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence79.1%79.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.9%9.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence90.1%90.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence62.9%62.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 64¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence37.1%37.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 37¢
Team goals
Frosinone over 0.5 goals limited evidence80.9%81.0% ± 0.1no
Frosinone under 0.5 goals limited evidence19.1%19.0% ± 0.1no
Frosinone over 1.5 goals limited evidence49.4%49.5% ± 0.2no
Frosinone under 1.5 goals limited evidence50.6%50.5% ± 0.2no
Frosinone over 2.5 goals limited evidence23.2%23.4% ± 0.1no
Frosinone under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.8%76.6% ± 0.1no
Frosinone over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.7%8.8% ± 0.1no
Frosinone under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.3%91.2% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals limited evidence77.3%77.3% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals limited evidence22.7%22.7% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals limited evidence43.7%43.3% ± 0.2no
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals limited evidence56.3%56.8% ± 0.2no
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals limited evidence18.7%18.6% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals limited evidence81.3%81.4% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.4%6.4% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.6%93.6% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Frosinone to win by 3 or more limited evidence8.9%9.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Frosinone to win by 2 or more limited evidence21.5%21.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Frosinone to win by 1 or more limited evidence41.7%42.1% ± 0.2no
Frosinone not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence65.8%65.8% ± 0.2no
Frosinone not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence83.8%83.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Frosinone not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.9%94.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Sassuolo to win by 3 or more limited evidence6.1%6.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Sassuolo to win by 2 or more limited evidence16.2%16.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Sassuolo to win by 1 or more limited evidence34.2%34.2% ± 0.2no
Sassuolo not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence58.3%57.9% ± 0.2no
Sassuolo not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence78.5%78.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Sassuolo not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence91.1%91.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Clean sheet
Frosinone clean sheet grid22.7%22.7% ± 0.1no
Sassuolo clean sheet grid19.1%19.0% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.7% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone by exactly 1—20.3% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone by exactly 2—12.8% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone by exactly 3—6.0% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone by exactly 4—2.2% ± 0.0not listed
Frosinone by exactly 5—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
Sassuolo by exactly 1—18.1% ± 0.1not listed
Sassuolo by exactly 2—10.1% ± 0.1not listed
Sassuolo by exactly 3—4.2% ± 0.1not listed
Sassuolo by exactly 4—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Sassuolo by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Frosinone by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Sassuolo by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Frosinone 1–1 Sassuolo—10.8% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone 2–1 Sassuolo—8.8% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone 1–2 Sassuolo—7.7% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone 1–0 Sassuolo—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
Frosinone 0–1 Sassuolo—6.5% ± 0.1not listed

Frosinone v Sassuolo: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Frosinone to win (90 minutes)
42%
38%
YES on Frosinone to WinFrosinone wins in 90 minutes
42%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,019 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sassuolo to win (90 minutes)
34%
36%
YES on Sassuolo to WinSassuolo wins in 90 minutes
34%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,836 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 82 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawFrosinone or Sassuolo wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 940 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Sassuolo to WinFrosinone wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
66%65¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 51 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Frosinone to WinSassuolo wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
58%63¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,553 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,388 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 538 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
85%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,262 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 732 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
61%
63%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
61%64¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 262 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
39%38¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,415 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
38%41¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
62%60¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,722 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
21%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
79%77¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,101 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%89¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
63%
64%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
63%64¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
37%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,877 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Frosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFrosinone wins by 2 goals or more
22%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 531 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Frosinone to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 1 goal · Frosinone not by 2+ goals
78%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,330 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Frosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFrosinone wins by 3 goals or more
9%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,203 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Frosinone to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSassuolo wins or the match is drawn, or Frosinone wins by 2 goals or fewer · Frosinone not by 3+ goals
91%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,554 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSassuolo wins by 2 goals or more
16%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFrosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 1 goal · Sassuolo not by 2+ goals
84%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,104 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSassuolo wins by 3 goals or more
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,292 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Sassuolo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFrosinone wins or the match is drawn, or Sassuolo wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sassuolo not by 3+ goals
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 703 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 41.7% · draw 24.1% · away 34.2%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.48
Frosinone eligible matches
44 (43 with xG)
Sassuolo eligible matches
82 (82 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

FrosinoneOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctNapoliaway0–31.03–3.17L
20 SeptComohome2–02.18–2.12W
12 SeptGenoaaway1–11.93–1.88D
6 SeptVeneziahome3–2—W
29 AugFiorentinaaway3–01.11–2.13W
23 AugJuventushome0–10.41–2.18L
SassuoloOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctAC Milanhome1–11.28–1.23D
18 SeptMonzaaway1–21.47–1.51L
13 SeptJuventushome3–21.02–1.10W
6 SeptBolognaaway2–21.62–1.88D
29 AugTorinohome2–11.85–1.26W
23 AugAtalantaaway1–22.70–0.88L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT16FROSAS-BTTS
62.9%63.5%−0.6 pts0.63 / 0.640.370 / 8,877Comparable
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Frosinone to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO
41.7%38.0%+3.7 pts0.37 / 0.390.634,019 / 2,553Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sassuolo to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS
34.2%35.5%−1.3 pts0.35 / 0.360.652,836 / 51Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT16FROSAS-TIE
24.1%26.5%−2.4 pts0.26 / 0.270.7482 / 940Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Frosinone to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO2
21.5%18.5%+3.0 pts0.17 / 0.200.83531 / 1,330Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Frosinone to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-FRO3
8.9%7.5%+1.4 pts0.06 / 0.090.941,203 / 1,554Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sassuolo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS2
16.2%16.0%+0.2 pts0.15 / 0.170.85500 / 1,104Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sassuolo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT16FROSAS-SAS3
6.1%7.0%−0.9 pts0.06 / 0.080.941,292 / 703Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-1
95.4%95.5%−0.1 pts0.94 / 0.970.061,388 / 538Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-2
82.4%84.5%−2.1 pts0.83 / 0.860.172,262 / 732Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-3
60.8%63.0%−2.2 pts0.62 / 0.640.38262 / 1,415Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-4
38.4%40.5%−2.1 pts0.40 / 0.410.6025 / 1,722Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-5
20.9%23.5%−2.6 pts0.23 / 0.240.77500 / 0Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT16FROSAS-6
9.9%11.5%−1.6 pts0.11 / 0.120.891,101 / 0Comparable
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:09.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home39.0%38.7% – 40.4%41.6%2.401041.7%+2.6 pts
1x2:draw26.9%25.1% – 27.9%28.6%3.501024.1%−2.8 pts
1x2:away33.7%33.1% – 35.0%36.0%2.771034.2%+0.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:23.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.561.1%60.7% – 63.3%65.4%1.53760.8%−0.4 pts
total_goals:under:2.538.9%36.7% – 39.3%41.3%2.42739.2%+0.4 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:23.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.88 · draw 3.44 · home 2.4611/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.80 · draw 3.50 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.81 · draw 3.49 · home 2.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.53 · draw 3.39 · home 2.2811/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3811/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.60 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.75 · draw 3.65 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.96 · draw 3.54 · home 2.5311/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.85 · draw 3.45 · home 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.70 · draw 3.70 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.5911/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4711/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.3611/10/2026, 11:37:2311/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:09.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:02 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Frosinoneok11/10/2026, 11:37:14 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sassuolook11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home41.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away34.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x65.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x258.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes62.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no37.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.582.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.517.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.560.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.539.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.538.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.561.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.579.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.580.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.519.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.549.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.550.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.523.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.577.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.522.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.543.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.556.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.518.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.581.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.521.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.578.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.541.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.558.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.565.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.534.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.583.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.516.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home54.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away45.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 461 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:09