Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Serie A·Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT

JuventusvLazio

Juventus
51%
Draw
27%
Lazio
22%

Got%OnIt gives Juventus a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Juventus and 0.9 for Lazio.
  • Juventus won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Lazio won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Juventus are 8th of 20 after 5 games; Lazio are 2nd.
  • Juventus have won 3 and lost 1; Lazio have won 5 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Juventus

  • D1–1at Cagliari11 Oct
  • W2–0v Atalanta20 Sept
  • W5–0v NEC Nijmegen17 Sept
  • L2–3at Sassuolo13 Sept
  • D1–1v AC Milan6 Sept
  • W2–0v Parma29 Aug

Lazio

  • W3–1v Monza11 Oct
  • W2–0at Venezia19 Sept
  • D2–2v AC Milan12 Sept
  • W2–1at Udinese7 Sept
  • W1–0v Genoa30 Aug
  • W1–0at Bologna24 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Juventus win51.4%48.1%−3.2 pts
Draw27.0%27.5%+0.5 pts
Lazio win21.6%24.3%+2.7 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.48 and 0.86). Juventus 1.48 · Lazio 0.86 · total 2.34 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Juventus–Lazio)

  1. 1–013.9%
  2. 1–112.6%
  3. 2–010.5%
  4. 0–09.9%
  5. 2–19.1%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Juventus

Expected goals
1.48
Scoring vs average
×1.13
Conceding vs average
×0.73

Lazio

Expected goals
0.86
Scoring vs average
×0.73
Conceding vs average
×1.13
  • Juventus (home): expected to score ×1.13 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.73 the average.
  • Lazio (away): expected to score ×0.73 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.13 the average.
  • Recent 378 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.31 home and 1.19 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.10).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Juventus
141 matches (138 with xG)
Lazio
140 matches (139 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home51.4%over-stated by 1.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 48.2%
1x2:draw27.0%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 24.4%
1x2:away21.6%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 19.6%
double_chance:1x78.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x248.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1273.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes45.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.590.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 89.7%
total_goals:under:0.59.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.568.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.6%
total_goals:under:1.531.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.541.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.9%
total_goals:under:2.558.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.520.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.4%
total_goals:under:3.579.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.58.9%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 7.8%
total_goals:under:4.591.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.53.2%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 1.6%
total_goals:under:5.596.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.577.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.7%
team_total:home:under:0.522.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.543.6%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 42.9%
team_total:home:under:1.556.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.518.6%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.1%
team_total:home:under:2.581.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.4%
team_total:home:under:3.593.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.557.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 57.1%
team_total:away:under:0.542.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.521.4%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.8%
team_total:away:under:1.578.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.55.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.4%
team_total:away:under:2.594.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.2%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 0.9%
team_total:away:under:3.598.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.510.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.4%
spread:away:+2.589.5%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 89.1%
spread:home:-1.526.2%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.2%
spread:away:+1.573.8%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.2%
spread:home:-0.551.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.5%
spread:away:+0.548.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.0%
spread:home:+0.578.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.8%
spread:away:-0.521.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.5%
spread:home:+1.592.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.6%
spread:away:-1.57.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.5%
spread:home:+2.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home70.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away29.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.31 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7454393788052916999 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.19 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Juventus win51.4%51.7% ± 0.2+0.35 pts
Draw27.0%26.4% ± 0.1−0.64 pts
Lazio win21.6%21.9% ± 0.1+0.28 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.31 pts (total_goals:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Juventus
42.1% ± 0.2 (exact 42.2%)
Lazio
22.7% ± 0.1 (exact 22.8%)

Goal difference (Juventus minus Lazio)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.3% ± 0.0
  4. -31.4% ± 0.0
  5. -25.4% ± 0.1
  6. -114.7% ± 0.1
  7. 026.4% ± 0.1
  8. 125.5% ± 0.1
  9. 215.6% ± 0.1
  10. 37.2% ± 0.1
  11. 42.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.7% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Juventus 1–0 Lazio14.1% ± 0.113.9%
Juventus 1–1 Lazio12.3% ± 0.112.6%
Juventus 2–0 Lazio10.4% ± 0.110.5%
Juventus 0–0 Lazio9.5% ± 0.19.9%
Juventus 2–1 Lazio9.1% ± 0.19.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Juventus
mean 1.48 · variance 1.48 · ± 0.004
Lazio
mean 0.87 · variance 0.86 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 26.4%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Juventus and +0.00 for Lazio.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Juventus win51.4%51.7%+0.3 pts
Draw27.0%26.4%−0.6 pts
Lazio win21.6%21.9%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.861.48 – 0.86+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 2 · ESTIMATED 58 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Juventus

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: K. GrabaraESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Vicario)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lazio

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • Patric D Missing Fixture (Sprained Ankle) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Furlanetto G Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Mandas)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move juventus win by +2.2 pts (to 53.6%). Expected goals move +0.03 for Juventus and −0.05 for Lazio.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Juventus win51.4%53.6%+2.2 pts
Draw27.0%26.1%−0.9 pts
Lazio win21.6%20.3%−1.3 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.861.51 – 0.82+0.03 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 2 · ESTIMATED 58 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Juventus rate ×1.02 band 0.62–1.61

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15353535353535352 · contribution -0.003 (-0.013 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Lazio rate ×0.95 band 0.65–1.56

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15353535353535352 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move juventus win by +2.2 pts (to 53.6%). Expected goals move +0.03 for Juventus and −0.05 for Lazio.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Juventus win51.4%53.6%+2.2 pts
Draw27.0%26.1%−0.9 pts
Lazio win21.6%20.3%−1.3 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.861.51 – 0.82+0.03 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 2 · ESTIMATED 58 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Juventus

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: K. GrabaraESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice G. Vicario)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lazio

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • Patric D Missing Fixture (Sprained Ankle) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Furlanetto G Missing Fixture (Jumpers Knee) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Mandas)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Juventus rate ×1.02 band 0.62–1.61

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15353535353535352 · contribution -0.003 (-0.013 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Lazio rate ×0.95 band 0.65–1.56

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.15353535353535352 · contribution 0.001 (-0.010 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Juventus win51.4%52.4%+1.1 pts
Draw27.0%26.3%−0.7 pts
Lazio win21.6%21.3%−0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.49 – 0.84+0.01 / −0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 619 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)W. McKennie 14% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Juventus

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 55% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
W. McKennie M13.9% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00172%
Bremer D12.0% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00181%
Francisco Conceição F5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00186%
Randal Kolo Muani F5.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00174%
N. González F4.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00175%
P. Kalulu D4.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.001100%
F. Gatti D3.2% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00119%
Z. Çelik M2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00189%

Lazio

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 71% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
T. Noslin F12.0% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00166%
D. Frattesi M7.4% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00175%
G. Isaksen F7.0% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00137%
K. Taylor M6.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00195%
M. Zaccagni F6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00192%
M. Cancellieri F3.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00163%
Nuno Tavares D2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00182%
F. Dele-Bashiru M2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00018%

Run 1006 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 501, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lazio)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Juventus)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Serie A matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationJuventus 3.0 d rest (short) · Lazio 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Juventus

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League H Rennes +3.9 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −3 d before (A Celta Vigo); UEFA Europa League +3.9 d after (H Rennes) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAH AtalantaW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAA CagliariD 1–1counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA Celta VigoNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELH Rennes+3.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAA Lecce+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAA Genoa+10 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Locatelli (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.2 CONFIRMED

Juventus: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
W. McKennie · regularM4545—
Douglas Luiz · regularM8484—
N. GonzálezM6060—
Francisco Conceição · regularM4513590' Portugal, 14 d before
P. SarrM9090—
Z. Çelik · regularD6415490' Türkiye, 13 d before
J. LucumíD9090—
Bremer · regularD9090—
P. Kalulu · regularD90900' France, 13 d before
G. VicarioG90900' Italy, 13 d before
R. Kolo MuaniF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 296 minutes — Francisco Conceição (90' Portugal, 14 d before); Z. Çelik (90' Türkiye, 13 d before); T. Koopmeiners (90' Netherlands, 14 d before); N. Woltemade (26' Germany, 14 d before) CONFIRMED

Lazio

7.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Parma +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAA VeneziaW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH MonzaW 3–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAH Parma+6 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAA Sassuolo+8.9 d
  • Sun 1 NovSAH Cagliari+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Cancellieri (F) — reason unknown; A. Marusic (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lazio: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Zaccagni · regularF090—
T. Noslin · regularF075—
R. BelahyaneM090—
D. FrattesiM0666' Italy, 13 d before
Nuno Tavares · regularD0750' Portugal, 14 d before
D. DoekhiD053—
C. Mandas · regularG0900' Greece, 14 d before
R. Floriani MussoliniD090—
O. Provstgaard · regularD015090' Denmark, 14 d before
K. Taylor · regularM0900' Netherlands, 14 d before
G. IsaksenF017282' Denmark, 14 d before

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 268 minutes — J. Šutalo (90' Croatia, 12 d before); D. Frattesi (6' Italy, 13 d before); O. Provstgaard (90' Denmark, 14 d before); G. Isaksen (82' Denmark, 14 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 3 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Juventus

None reported for this team.

Lazio

  • A. Furlanetto · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture
  • Patric · injury / absence: Sprained Ankle · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Juventus51%—58%
Draw27%—24%
Lazio22%—17%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 18 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Juventus a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (51% vs 58%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Juventus

  • Juventus: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • D1–1at Cagliari11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Atalanta20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at Sassuolo13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v AC Milan6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Parma29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Frosinone23 Aug · in model evidence

Lazio

  • Lazio: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W3–1v Monza11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Venezia19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v AC Milan12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Udinese7 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Genoa30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Bologna24 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more3%
Over 1.568%
Over 2.542%
Over 3.521%
Both teams score45%

Juventus

Expected goals1.48
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more44%
Clean sheet42%

Lazio

Expected goals0.86
Scores at least once58%
Scores 2 or more21%
Clean sheet23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability2 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

2 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Juventus

Nobody listed for this team.

Lazio

  • A. FurlanettoOutJumpers Knee
  • PatricOutSprained Ankle

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 2nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Juventus

8th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L1 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WLDWW (most recent last)

Lazio

2nd of 20 · 16 pts · W5 D1 L0 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 6, conceded 3) · Away W3 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWDWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Juventus to win51.4%51.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Draw27.0%26.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Lazio to win21.6%21.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Double chance
Juventus or draw limited evidence78.4%78.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 84¢
Lazio or draw limited evidence48.6%48.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 43¢
Not a draw limited evidence73.0%73.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Draw no bet
Juventus to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence70.4%70.3% ± 0.2no
Lazio to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence29.6%29.7% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence90.1%90.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence9.9%9.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence68.2%68.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 74¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence31.8%31.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Over 2.5 goals in total41.5%41.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 50¢
Under 2.5 goals in total58.5%58.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence20.9%21.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence79.1%78.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence8.9%9.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence91.1%91.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence3.2%3.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence96.8%96.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence45.0%44.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 51¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence55.0%55.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Team goals
Juventus over 0.5 goals limited evidence77.2%77.3% ± 0.1no
Juventus under 0.5 goals limited evidence22.8%22.7% ± 0.1no
Juventus over 1.5 goals limited evidence43.6%43.7% ± 0.2no
Juventus under 1.5 goals limited evidence56.4%56.3% ± 0.2no
Juventus over 2.5 goals limited evidence18.6%18.8% ± 0.1no
Juventus under 2.5 goals limited evidence81.4%81.2% ± 0.1no
Juventus over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.3%6.3% ± 0.1no
Juventus under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.7%93.7% ± 0.1no
Lazio over 0.5 goals limited evidence57.8%57.9% ± 0.2no
Lazio under 0.5 goals limited evidence42.2%42.1% ± 0.2no
Lazio over 1.5 goals limited evidence21.4%21.6% ± 0.1no
Lazio under 1.5 goals limited evidence78.6%78.4% ± 0.1no
Lazio over 2.5 goals limited evidence5.7%5.7% ± 0.1no
Lazio under 2.5 goals limited evidence94.3%94.3% ± 0.1no
Lazio over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.2%1.2% ± 0.0no
Lazio under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.8%98.8% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Juventus to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.5%10.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Juventus to win by 2 or more limited evidence26.2%26.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 33¢
Juventus to win by 1 or more limited evidence51.4%51.7% ± 0.2no
Juventus not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence78.4%78.1% ± 0.1no
Juventus not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence92.9%92.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Juventus not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.3%98.2% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Lazio to win by 3 or more limited evidence1.7%1.8% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 4¢
Lazio to win by 2 or more limited evidence7.1%7.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Lazio to win by 1 or more limited evidence21.6%21.9% ± 0.1no
Lazio not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence48.6%48.3% ± 0.2no
Lazio not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence73.8%73.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
Lazio not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.5%89.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Clean sheet
Juventus clean sheet grid42.2%42.1% ± 0.2no
Lazio clean sheet grid22.8%22.7% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—26.4% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus by exactly 1—25.5% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus by exactly 2—15.6% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus by exactly 3—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus by exactly 4—2.4% ± 0.0not listed
Juventus by exactly 5—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
Lazio by exactly 1—14.7% ± 0.1not listed
Lazio by exactly 2—5.4% ± 0.1not listed
Lazio by exactly 3—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Lazio by exactly 4—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Lazio by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Juventus by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Lazio by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Juventus 1–0 Lazio—14.1% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus 1–1 Lazio—12.3% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus 2–0 Lazio—10.4% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus 0–0 Lazio—9.5% ± 0.1not listed
Juventus 2–1 Lazio—9.1% ± 0.1not listed

Juventus v Lazio: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Juventus to win (90 minutes)
51%
58%
YES on Juventus to WinJuventus wins in 90 minutes
51%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,831 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lazio to win (90 minutes)
22%
17%
YES on Lazio to WinLazio wins in 90 minutes
22%18¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,956 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
27%
24%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 7,920 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawJuventus or Lazio wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,669 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lazio to WinJuventus wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
78%84¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,299 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Juventus to WinLazio wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
49%43¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,018 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,535 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
68%
74%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
68%74¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
32%27¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
49%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
42%50¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,965 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
58%53¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 727 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
21%28¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,222 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
79%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,992 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,835 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,289 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 775 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,080 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
45%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
45%51¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,228 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
55%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 720 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Winning margin
Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
32%
Limited evidence
YES on Juventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsJuventus wins by 2 goals or more
26%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,198 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 1 goal · Juventus not by 2+ goals
74%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9,329 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Juventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsJuventus wins by 3 goals or more
10%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 539 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Juventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 2 goals or fewer · Juventus not by 3+ goals
90%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,467 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Lazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLazio wins by 2 goals or more
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 84 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lazio to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsJuventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 1 goal · Lazio not by 2+ goals
93%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 31 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Lazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLazio wins by 3 goals or more
2%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lazio to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsJuventus wins or the match is drawn, or Lazio wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lazio not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 302 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 51.4% · draw 27.0% · away 21.6%
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.86
Juventus eligible matches
141 (138 with xG)
Lazio eligible matches
140 (139 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

JuventusOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctCagliariaway1–11.94–0.54D
20 SeptAtalantahome2–01.31–0.60W
17 SeptNEC Nijmegenhome5–0—W
13 SeptSassuoloaway2–31.10–1.02L
6 SeptAC Milanhome1–11.59–0.11D
29 AugParmahome2–01.58–0.25W
LazioOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctMonzahome3–11.59–1.91W
19 SeptVeneziaaway2–01.60–1.89W
12 SeptAC Milanhome2–22.01–1.25D
7 SeptUdineseaway2–11.83–0.85W
30 AugGenoahome1–01.62–0.42W
24 AugBolognaaway1–00.63–1.78W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18JUVLAZ-BTTS
45.0%49.5%−4.5 pts0.48 / 0.510.526,228 / 720Comparable
seen 18 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Juventus to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV
51.4%58.0%−6.6 pts0.57 / 0.590.434,831 / 3,018Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ
21.6%17.0%+4.6 pts0.16 / 0.180.846,956 / 3,299Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18JUVLAZ-TIE
27.0%24.0%+3.0 pts0.23 / 0.250.777,920 / 2,669Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV2
26.2%31.5%−5.3 pts0.30 / 0.330.701,198 / 9,329Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV3
10.5%13.5%−3.0 pts0.12 / 0.150.88539 / 1,467Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ2
7.1%6.0%+1.1 pts0.04 / 0.080.9684 / 31Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lazio to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-LAZ3
1.7%2.5%−0.8 pts0.01 / 0.040.99500 / 302Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-1
90.1%93.0%−2.9 pts0.91 / 0.950.091,535 / 1,220Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-2
68.2%73.5%−5.3 pts0.73 / 0.740.270 / 0Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-3
41.5%48.5%−7.0 pts0.47 / 0.500.531,965 / 727Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-4
20.9%26.0%−5.1 pts0.24 / 0.280.761,222 / 1,992Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-5
8.9%12.0%−3.1 pts0.10 / 0.140.901,835 / 1,289Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18JUVLAZ-6
3.2%5.5%−2.3 pts0.03 / 0.080.97775 / 1,080Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:09:23.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
51.4%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
27.0%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
21.6%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
41.5%—
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
58.5%—

No pages observed.

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:09:23.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:42:28 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Juventusok11/10/2026, 11:37:12 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Laziook11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home51.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away21.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x78.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x248.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1273.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes45.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no55.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.590.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.59.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.568.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.531.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.541.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.558.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.520.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.579.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.543.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.556.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.557.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.542.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.521.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.578.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.526.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.573.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.551.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.548.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.592.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.57.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home70.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away29.6%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 501 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:09:23