Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

BrightonvCrystal Palace

Brighton
51%
Draw
23%
Crystal Palace
26%

Got%OnIt gives Brighton a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.8 goals for Brighton and 1.2 for Crystal Palace.
  • Brighton won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Crystal Palace won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Brighton are 3rd of 20 after 6 games; Crystal Palace are 15th.
  • Brighton have won 4 and lost 1; Crystal Palace have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Brighton

  • W2–0at Sunderland10 Oct
  • W3–0v Arsenal19 Sept
  • W5–0at Coventry13 Sept
  • D1–1v Leeds5 Sept
  • L3–4at Chelsea30 Aug
  • W4–0v Aston Villa23 Aug

Crystal Palace

  • W3–1v Nottingham Forest11 Oct
  • D0–0at Leeds20 Sept
  • L2–3v Ipswich12 Sept
  • W3–2at Fulham5 Sept
  • L1–4v Manchester City28 Aug
  • L0–2at Everton22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 591, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Brighton)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Crystal Palace)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBrighton 2.8 d rest (short) · Crystal Palace 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Brighton

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League A FK Jablonec +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League −2.8 d before (H Kauno Žalgiris) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH ArsenalW 3–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA SunderlandW 2–0counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUECLH Kauno ŽalgirisNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUECLA FK Jablonec+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLA Liverpool+7 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Manchester City+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Manchester City+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Brighton: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
D. Gómez · regularM088—
L. Vušković · regularD018090' Croatia, 11.8 d before
F. Kadıoğlu · regularD017888' Türkiye, 12.8 d before
B. Verbruggen · regularG018090' Netherlands, 13.8 d before
O. Boscagli · regularD068—
José María Andrés BaixauliM090—
C. Kostoulas · regularF0622' Greece, 13.8 d before
M. De Cuyper · regularM0680' Belgium, 12.8 d before
Y. Ayari · regularM088—
P. Groß · regularM090—
P. StruijkD090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 270 minutes — L. Vušković (90' Croatia, 11.8 d before); F. Kadıoğlu (88' Türkiye, 12.8 d before); B. Verbruggen (90' Netherlands, 13.8 d before); C. Kostoulas (2' Greece, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Crystal Palace

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Beşiktaş +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (A Lyon) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA LeedsD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLH Nottingham ForestW 3–1counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA LyonNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA Beşiktaş+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Newcastle+7 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Fulham+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Tottenham+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Henderson (G) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 87.1 CONFIRMED

Crystal Palace: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
W. BenítezG9090—
C. Richards · regularD9090—
T. Mitchell · regularM9090—
D. Kamada · regularM9090—
Yeremy Pino · regularM83863' Spain, 11.8 d before
Q. TimberM90988' Netherlands, 13.8 d before
A. Wharton · regularM9090—
A. KhalailiM9090—
J. Canvot · regularD9090—
J. LermaD7272—
J. Strand Larsen · regularF8310623' Norway, 13.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 34 minutes — Yeremy Pino (3' Spain, 11.8 d before); Q. Timber (8' Netherlands, 13.8 d before); J. Strand Larsen (23' Norway, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Brighton51%60%62%
Draw23%22%22%
Crystal Palace26%18%18%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Brighton a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (51% vs 62%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Brighton

  • Brighton: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.2 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
  • Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W2–0at Sunderland10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Arsenal19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–0at Coventry13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Leeds5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L3–4at Chelsea30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Aston Villa23 Aug · in model evidence

Crystal Palace

  • Crystal Palace: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 2.1 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W3–1v Nottingham Forest11 Oct · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Leeds20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Ipswich12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Fulham5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4v Manchester City28 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Everton22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more8%
Over 1.580%
Over 2.558%
Over 3.535%
Both teams score58%

Brighton

Expected goals1.79
Scores at least once83%
Scores 2 or more54%
Clean sheet30%

Crystal Palace

Expected goals1.20
Scores at least once70%
Scores 2 or more34%
Clean sheet17%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season3rd v 15th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Brighton

3rd of 20 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L1 from 6 games · scored 18, conceded 5

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 8, conceded 1) · Away W2 D0 L1 (scored 10, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WWWDL (most recent last)

Crystal Palace

15th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 6, conceded 11

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 7) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Brighton to win (90 minutes)
51%
62%
YES on Brighton to WinBrighton wins in 90 minutes
51%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 24 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes)
26%
18%
YES on Crystal Palace to WinCrystal Palace wins in 90 minutes
26%18¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,058 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
22%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,595 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBrighton or Crystal Palace wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%79¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 630 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Crystal Palace to WinBrighton wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
74%83¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,488 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Brighton to WinCrystal Palace wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
49%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,314 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,006 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 928 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
80%
82%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
80%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 704 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
20%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 681 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
58%
61%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
58%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,178 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
42%41¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 691 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
39%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
35%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,600 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
65%62¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
18%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,825 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
82%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,438 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
8%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,201 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,681 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
58%
57%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
58%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,142 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
42%44¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,098 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Winning margin
Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
28%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Brighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrighton wins by 2 goals or more
28%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,542 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Brighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCrystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 1 goal · Brighton not by 2+ goals
72%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 369 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Brighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrighton wins by 3 goals or more
13%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 508 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Brighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCrystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 2 goals or fewer · Brighton not by 3+ goals
87%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 680 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Crystal Palace to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Crystal Palace to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCrystal Palace wins by 2 goals or more
10%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,645 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Crystal Palace to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrighton wins or the match is drawn, or Crystal Palace wins by 1 goal · Crystal Palace not by 2+ goals
90%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,469 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Crystal Palace to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Crystal Palace to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCrystal Palace wins by 3 goals or more
3%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,037 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
NO on Crystal Palace to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrighton wins or the match is drawn, or Crystal Palace wins by 2 goals or fewer · Crystal Palace not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 51.3% · draw 23.2% · away 25.5%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.20
Brighton eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Crystal Palace eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • the model's home probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 8% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BrightonOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctSunderlandaway2–01.14–0.68W
19 SeptArsenalhome3–01.31–1.63W
13 SeptCoventryaway5–02.81–1.33W
5 SeptLeedshome1–12.19–2.49D
30 AugChelseaaway3–41.41–2.93L
23 AugAston Villahome4–03.77–0.29W
Crystal PalaceOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctNottingham Foresthome3–12.42–2.95W
20 SeptLeedsaway0–01.06–1.31D
12 SeptIpswichhome2–30.62–1.67L
5 SeptFulhamaway3–21.97–3.14W
28 AugManchester Cityhome1–40.66–2.21L
22 AugEvertonaway0–21.96–1.12L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BRICRY-BTTS
58.3%57.0%+1.3 pts0.56 / 0.580.441,142 / 1,098Comparable
seen 32 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brighton to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI
51.3%61.5%−10.2 pts0.61 / 0.620.3924 / 2,314Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Crystal Palace to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY
25.5%17.5%+8.0 pts0.17 / 0.180.835,058 / 2,488Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BRICRY-TIE
23.2%21.5%+1.7 pts0.21 / 0.220.799,595 / 630Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI2
28.5%38.0%−9.5 pts0.37 / 0.390.631,542 / 369Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI3
12.8%18.5%−5.7 pts0.17 / 0.200.83508 / 680Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Crystal Palace to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY2
10.3%6.5%+3.8 pts0.05 / 0.080.951,645 / 1,469Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Crystal Palace to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-CRY3
3.3%3.0%+0.3 pts0.01 / 0.050.991,037 / 300Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-1
95.0%95.0%−0.0 pts0.93 / 0.970.076,006 / 928Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-2
80.0%82.0%−2.0 pts0.81 / 0.830.19704 / 681Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-3
57.6%60.5%−2.9 pts0.59 / 0.620.411,178 / 691Comparable
seen 32 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-4
35.1%39.0%−3.9 pts0.38 / 0.400.623,600 / 5Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-5
18.4%20.0%−1.6 pts0.18 / 0.220.821,825 / 1,438Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BRICRY-6
8.3%9.0%−0.7 pts0.07 / 0.110.931,201 / 1,681Comparable
seen 32 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:20.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home60.2%58.8% – 60.8%63.5%1.571051.3%−9.0 pts
1x2:draw21.8%21.0% – 22.6%23.3%4.291023.2%+1.4 pts
1x2:away18.2%17.6% – 18.8%19.1%5.221025.5%+7.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:26.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.3%58.9% – 60.9%63.7%1.57757.6%−2.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.539.7%39.1% – 41.1%41.7%2.40742.4%+2.7 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:26.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 5.30 · draw 4.45 · home 1.5911/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 5.00 · draw 4.20 · home 1.5711/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 5.18 · draw 4.50 · home 1.5611/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 4.80 · draw 3.93 · home 1.5111/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 5.00 · draw 4.20 · home 1.6011/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 5.25 · draw 4.20 · home 1.5311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 5.20 · draw 4.40 · home 1.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 5.44 · draw 4.57 · home 1.6311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 5.30 · draw 4.25 · home 1.6011/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 5.25 · draw 4.33 · home 1.5311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.58 · under 2.5 2.4111/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.4311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.63 · under 2.5 2.4911/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.54 · under 2.5 2.2611/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:20.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:13 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Brightonok11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Crystal Palaceok11/10/2026, 01:39:10 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home51.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.2%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away25.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x74.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x248.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.8%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes58.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no41.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.557.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.542.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.535.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.564.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.518.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.581.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.583.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.516.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.553.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.546.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.526.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.573.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.510.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.589.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.569.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.530.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.533.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.566.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.512.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.587.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.512.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.587.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.528.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.571.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.551.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.548.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.574.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.525.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.589.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.510.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home66.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away33.3%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 591 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:20