Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Aston VillavFenerbahçe

Aston Villa
68%
Draw
19%
Fenerbahçe
13%

Got%OnIt gives Aston Villa a 68% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Aston Villa and 0.8 for Fenerbahçe.
  • Aston Villa won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Fenerbahçe won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Aston Villa are 9th of 36 after 1 games; Fenerbahçe are 20th.
  • Aston Villa have won 1 and lost 0; Fenerbahçe have won 0 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Aston Villa

  • D2–2v Brentford10 Oct
  • W3–2at Tottenham19 Sept
  • L1–2v Nottingham Forest12 Sept
  • W3–2at Club Brugge KV8 Sept
  • D0–0at Hull City5 Sept
  • L0–1v Arsenal31 Aug

Fenerbahçe

  • D1–1v AS Roma10 Sept
  • W2–1at Nottingham Forest26 Feb
  • L0–3v Nottingham Forest19 Feb
  • D1–1at FCSB29 Jan
  • L0–1v Aston Villa22 Jan
  • W4–0at Brann11 Dec

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Aston Villa win68.0%67.8%−0.2 pts
Draw19.1%18.4%−0.7 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%13.8%+0.9 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.20 and 0.85). Aston Villa 2.20 · Fenerbahçe 0.85 · total 3.05 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Aston Villa–Fenerbahçe)

  1. 2–011.5%
  2. 1–010.2%
  3. 2–19.7%
  4. 1–19.1%
  5. 3–08.4%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Aston Villa

Expected goals
2.20
Scoring vs average
×1.16
Conceding vs average
×0.64

Fenerbahçe

Expected goals
0.85
Scoring vs average
×0.64
Conceding vs average
×1.16
  • Aston Villa (home): expected to score ×1.16 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.64 the average.
  • Fenerbahçe (away): expected to score ×0.64 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.16 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Aston Villa
159 matches (158 with xG)
Fenerbahçe
33 matches (30 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home68.0%under-stated by 4.5 pts on 71 matches (this competition); conservative 62.5%
1x2:draw19.1%over-stated by 3.5 pts on 125 matches (this competition); conservative 12.1%
1x2:away12.9%over-stated by 1.8 pts on 105 matches (this competition); conservative 7.8%
double_chance:1x87.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x232.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1280.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes51.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no48.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.518.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.558.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.541.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.536.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.563.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.519.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.580.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.58.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.591.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.588.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.511.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.564.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.535.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.537.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.562.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.518.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.581.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.557.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.542.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.520.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.579.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.55.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.594.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.598.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.524.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.576.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.544.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.555.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.568.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.532.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.587.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.512.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.596.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.54.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.599.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.50.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home84.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away15.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.29 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 4357631537283231289 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.14 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Aston Villa win68.0%68.2% ± 0.1+0.21 pts
Draw19.1%18.7% ± 0.1−0.43 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%13.1% ± 0.1+0.22 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.29 pts (btts:yes); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Aston Villa
43.1% ± 0.2 (exact 42.8%)
Fenerbahçe
11.2% ± 0.1 (exact 11.1%)

Goal difference (Aston Villa minus Fenerbahçe)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.2% ± 0.0
  4. -30.8% ± 0.0
  5. -23.1% ± 0.1
  6. -19.0% ± 0.1
  7. 018.7% ± 0.1
  8. 123.8% ± 0.1
  9. 220.4% ± 0.1
  10. 313.1% ± 0.1
  11. 46.7% ± 0.1
  12. 52.8% ± 0.1
  13. >51.4% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Aston Villa 2–0 Fenerbahçe11.4% ± 0.111.5%
Aston Villa 1–0 Fenerbahçe10.5% ± 0.110.2%
Aston Villa 2–1 Fenerbahçe9.6% ± 0.19.7%
Aston Villa 1–1 Fenerbahçe8.8% ± 0.19.1%
Aston Villa 3–0 Fenerbahçe8.4% ± 0.18.4%

Expected goals (simulated)

Aston Villa
mean 2.20 · variance 2.21 · ± 0.005
Fenerbahçe
mean 0.85 · variance 0.85 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move fenerbahçe win by +0.7 pts (to 13.6%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Aston Villa and +0.01 for Fenerbahçe.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Aston Villa win68.0%67.4%−0.6 pts
Draw19.1%19.0%−0.1 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%13.6%+0.7 pts
Expected goals2.20 – 0.852.17 – 0.86−0.03 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 97 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Aston Villa

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 2.6% of goals share out

  • I. Maatsen D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.8% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • T. Harwood-Bellis D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Onana M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.7% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • Modou Kéba Cissé D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Goretzka Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ruggeri D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Z. Suzuki)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fenerbahçe

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • M. Guendouzi M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Muldur D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Yandas Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Oosterwolde D Missing Fixture (Achilles Tendon Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Fall Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Diouf Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Ederson)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move fenerbahçe win by +0.3 pts (to 13.2%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Aston Villa and −0.01 for Fenerbahçe.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Aston Villa win68.0%68.0%−0.0 pts
Draw19.1%18.9%−0.3 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%13.2%+0.3 pts
Expected goals2.20 – 0.852.18 – 0.84−0.02 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 97 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Aston Villa rate ×0.99 band 0.75–1.37

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07979797979797987 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe rate ×0.99 band 0.73–1.31

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07979797979797987 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move aston villa win by −0.9 pts (to 67.1%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Aston Villa and +0.01 for Fenerbahçe.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Aston Villa win68.0%67.1%−0.9 pts
Draw19.1%19.2%+0.1 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%13.7%+0.8 pts
Expected goals2.20 – 0.852.15 – 0.85−0.05 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 97 · REPORTED 12 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Aston Villa

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 2.6% of goals share out

  • I. Maatsen D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.8% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • T. Harwood-Bellis D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Onana M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 1.7% · effect −1.8% REPORTED
  • Modou Kéba Cissé D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Goretzka Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Ruggeri D Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Z. Suzuki)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fenerbahçe

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • M. Guendouzi M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Muldur D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Yandas Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Oosterwolde D Missing Fixture (Achilles Tendon Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Fall Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Diouf Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Ederson)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Aston Villa rate ×0.99 band 0.75–1.37

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07979797979797987 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe rate ×0.99 band 0.73–1.31

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07979797979797987 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Aston Villa win68.0%65.8%−2.2 pts
Draw19.1%19.4%+0.2 pts
Fenerbahçe win12.9%14.8%+1.9 pts
Expected goals—2.16 – 0.92−0.04 / +0.07

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 196 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)Talisca 30% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Aston Villa

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 46% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
J. McGinn M21.7% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00297%
E. Buendia M20.9% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00286%
N. Jackson F8.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00174%
R. Barkley M6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00147%
T. Abraham F4.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00114%
M. Cash D2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00144%
J. Manzambi M2.0% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00040%
T. Mings D1.9% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00065%

Fenerbahçe

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
Talisca M29.9% ± 0.15.0% ± 0.10.35 ± 0.00273%
K. Akturkoglu M14.1% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00182%
A. Brown D13.9% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00171%
M. Greenwood F11.2% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00175%
V. Muriqi F4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00155%
I. Yuksek M2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00130%

Run 958 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 453, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Aston Villa)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Fenerbahçe)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAston Villa 2 absent regulars · Fenerbahçe 3 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Aston Villa

4.2 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Newcastle +2.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Wed 16 SeptEFLA CoventryW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLA TottenhamW 3–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BrentfordD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctPLA Newcastle+2.9 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Viking+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Manchester City+9.7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: I. Maatsen (D) — reason unknown; G. Hemmings (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.8 CONFIRMED

Aston Villa: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Buendía · regularM6464—
M. RuggeriD451010' Italy, 12 d before; 56' Italy, 9 d before
T. MingsD9090—
B. Kamara · regularM9090—
Z. SuzukiG9090—
M. CashD9021663' Poland, 12 d before; 63' Poland, 9 d before
João GomesM8686—
J. McGinn · regularM9026790' Scotland, 11 d before; 87' Scotland, 8 d before
J. ManzambiM8622190' Switzerland, 11 d before; 45' Switzerland, 8 d before
N. JacksonF9090—
V. Lindelöf · regularD9027090' Sweden, 12 d before; 90' Sweden, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 674 minutes — M. Ruggeri (0' Italy, 12 d before; 56' Italy, 9 d before); M. Cash (63' Poland, 12 d before; 63' Poland, 9 d before); J. McGinn (90' Scotland, 11 d before; 87' Scotland, 8 d before); J. Manzambi (90' Switzerland, 11 d before; 45' Switzerland, 8 d before); V. Lindelöf (90' Sweden, 12 d before; 90' Sweden, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Slavia Praha +5.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Slavia Praha+5.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 17 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Talisca (M) — reason unknown; M. Guendouzi (M) — reason unknown; J. Oosterwolde (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Fenerbahçe: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. BrownD00—
V. MuriqiF06767' Kosovo, 10.1 d before
N. Aké · regularD000' Netherlands, 13 d before; 0' Netherlands, 10 d before
M. MüldürD00—
N. Kanté · regularM00—
B. ElmazM09373' Türkiye, 12 d before; 20' Türkiye, 9 d before
K. Aktürkoğlu · regularF07867' Türkiye, 12 d before; 11' Türkiye, 9 d before
İ. YüksekM016485' Türkiye, 12 d before; 79' Türkiye, 9 d before
M. GreenwoodF00—
EdersonG00—
M. Škriniar · regularD018090' Slovakia, 12 d before; 90' Slovakia, 8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 819 minutes — V. Muriqi (67' Kosovo, 10.1 d before); R. Lukaku (29' Belgium, 12 d before; 70' Belgium, 9 d before); B. Elmaz (73' Türkiye, 12 d before; 20' Türkiye, 9 d before); O. Aydın (66' Türkiye, 12 d before; 2' Türkiye, 9 d before); K. Aktürkoğlu (67' Türkiye, 12 d before; 11' Türkiye, 9 d before); İ. Kahveci (0' Türkiye, 12 d before; 70' Türkiye, 9 d before); İ. Yüksek (85' Türkiye, 12 d before; 79' Türkiye, 9 d before); M. Škriniar (90' Slovakia, 12 d before; 90' Slovakia, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Aston Villa

  • A. Onana · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • I. Maatsen · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • L. Goretzka · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable
  • M. Cisse · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Ruggeri · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable
  • T. Harwood-Bellis · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture

Fenerbahçe

  • A. Diouf · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • A. Fall · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • J. Oosterwolde · injury / absence: Achilles Tendon Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Guendouzi · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture
  • M. Muldur · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Yandas · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Aston Villa68%57%60%
Draw19%24%23%
Fenerbahçe13%20%19%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Aston Villa a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (68% vs 57%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Aston Villa

  • Aston Villa: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–2at Club Brugge KV8 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Paris Saint Germain15 Apr · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Paris Saint Germain9 Apr · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Club Brugge KV12 Mar · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Club Brugge KV4 Mar · in model evidence
  • W4–2v Celtic29 Jan · in model evidence

Fenerbahçe

  • Fenerbahçe: 10 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • D1–1v AS Roma10 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Lyon26 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D1–1v Lyon18 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W1–0at Sturm Graz11 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W2–0v Sturm Graz5 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D1–1at Gornik Zabrze29 Jul · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more9%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.536%
Both teams score51%

Aston Villa

Expected goals2.20
Scores at least once89%
Scores 2 or more65%
Clean sheet43%

Fenerbahçe

Expected goals0.85
Scores at least once57%
Scores 2 or more21%
Clean sheet11%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability12 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

12 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Aston Villa

  • A. OnanaOutKnee Injury
  • I. MaatsenOutAnkle Injury
  • L. GoretzkaDoubtfulKnee Injury
  • M. CisseOutOff the roster
  • M. RuggeriDoubtfulInjury
  • T. Harwood-BellisOutOff the roster

Fenerbahçe

  • A. DioufOutOff the roster
  • A. FallOutOff the roster
  • J. OosterwoldeOutAchilles Tendon Injury
  • M. GuendouziOutRed Card
  • M. MuldurOutKnee Injury
  • M. YandasOutOff the roster

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season9th v 20th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Aston Villa

9th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Fenerbahçe

20th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Aston Villa to win68.0%68.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 60¢
Draw19.1%18.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Fenerbahçe to win12.9%13.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw limited evidence87.1%86.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Fenerbahçe or draw limited evidence32.0%31.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 41¢
Not a draw limited evidence80.9%81.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Draw no bet
Aston Villa to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence84.1%83.9% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence15.9%16.1% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.0%95.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.0%4.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.1%80.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 82¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.9%19.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 20¢
Over 2.5 goals in total58.8%58.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 60¢
Under 2.5 goals in total41.2%41.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 42¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence36.4%36.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence63.6%63.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 65¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence19.3%19.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence80.7%80.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence8.9%8.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.1%91.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence51.1%50.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence48.9%49.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Team goals
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals limited evidence88.9%88.8% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals limited evidence11.1%11.2% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals limited evidence64.6%64.5% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals limited evidence35.4%35.5% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals limited evidence37.8%37.8% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals limited evidence62.2%62.2% ± 0.2no
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals limited evidence18.1%18.1% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals limited evidence81.9%81.9% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe over 0.5 goals limited evidence57.2%56.9% ± 0.2no
Fenerbahçe under 0.5 goals limited evidence42.8%43.1% ± 0.2no
Fenerbahçe over 1.5 goals limited evidence20.8%20.9% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe under 1.5 goals limited evidence79.2%79.1% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe over 2.5 goals limited evidence5.5%5.6% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe under 2.5 goals limited evidence94.5%94.4% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.1%1.1% ± 0.0no
Fenerbahçe under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.9%98.9% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Aston Villa to win by 3 or more limited evidence24.0%24.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Aston Villa to win by 2 or more limited evidence44.5%44.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Aston Villa to win by 1 or more limited evidence68.0%68.2% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence87.1%86.9% ± 0.1no
Aston Villa not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence96.0%95.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Aston Villa not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.1%99.0% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Fenerbahçe to win by 3 or more limited evidence0.9%1.0% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 3¢
Fenerbahçe to win by 2 or more limited evidence4.0%4.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Fenerbahçe to win by 1 or more limited evidence12.9%13.1% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence32.0%31.8% ± 0.1no
Fenerbahçe not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence55.5%55.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 66¢
Fenerbahçe not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence76.0%76.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Clean sheet
Aston Villa clean sheet grid42.8%43.1% ± 0.2no
Fenerbahçe clean sheet grid11.1%11.2% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—18.7% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 1—23.8% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 2—20.4% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 3—13.1% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 4—6.7% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa by exactly 5—2.8% ± 0.1not listed
Fenerbahçe by exactly 1—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Fenerbahçe by exactly 2—3.1% ± 0.1not listed
Fenerbahçe by exactly 3—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Fenerbahçe by exactly 4—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Fenerbahçe by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Aston Villa by 6 or more—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Fenerbahçe by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Aston Villa 2–0 Fenerbahçe—11.4% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa 1–0 Fenerbahçe—10.5% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa 2–1 Fenerbahçe—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa 1–1 Fenerbahçe—8.8% ± 0.1not listed
Aston Villa 3–0 Fenerbahçe—8.4% ± 0.1not listed

Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
68%
60%
YES on Aston Villa to WinAston Villa wins in 90 minutes
68%60¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 33,151 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes)
13%
19%
YES on Fenerbahçe to WinFenerbahçe wins in 90 minutes
13%19¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 22,661 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
19%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
19%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 22,463 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawAston Villa or Fenerbahçe wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
81%78¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,781 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Fenerbahçe to WinAston Villa wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
87%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,506 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Aston Villa to WinFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
32%41¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,612 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
81%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
81%82¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,304 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
19%20¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,441 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
59%
59%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
59%60¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,453 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
41%42¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,442 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
36%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
36%36¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
64%65¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,706 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
19%20¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,342 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
81%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,203 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%10¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,361 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%93¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,547 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
51%
57%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
51%58¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,173 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
49%44¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,082 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
45%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 2 goals or more
45%36¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,304 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 1 goal · Aston Villa not by 2+ goals
55%66¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins by 3 goals or more
24%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,135 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Aston Villa to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins or the match is drawn, or Aston Villa wins by 2 goals or fewer · Aston Villa not by 3+ goals
76%85¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,594 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins by 2 goals or more
4%8¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,259 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Fenerbahçe wins by 1 goal · Fenerbahçe not by 2+ goals
96%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 17,348 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
2%
Limited evidence
YES on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFenerbahçe wins by 3 goals or more
1%3¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,626 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Fenerbahçe to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAston Villa wins or the match is drawn, or Fenerbahçe wins by 2 goals or fewer · Fenerbahçe not by 3+ goals
99%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 68.0% · draw 19.1% · away 12.9%
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.85
Aston Villa eligible matches
159 (158 with xG)
Fenerbahçe eligible matches
33 (30 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 9% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Aston VillaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBrentfordhome2–21.84–1.31D
19 SeptTottenhamaway3–21.16–1.56W
12 SeptNottingham Foresthome1–20.82–2.28L
8 SeptClub Brugge KVaway3–23.22–1.53W
5 SeptHull Cityaway0–01.93–0.57D
31 AugArsenalhome0–10.33–1.04L
FenerbahçeOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 SeptAS Romahome1–1—D
26 FebNottingham Forestaway2–11.76–0.99W
19 FebNottingham Foresthome0–30.48–2.74L
29 JanFCSBaway1–11.54–1.77D
22 JanAston Villahome0–11.08–1.69L
11 DecBrannaway4–03.73–0.23W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14AVLFEN-BTTS
51.1%57.0%—0.56 / 0.580.444,173 / 1,082Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL
68.0%59.5%+8.5 pts0.59 / 0.600.4133,151 / 330Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Fenerbahçe to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN
12.9%18.5%−5.6 pts0.18 / 0.190.8222,661 / 12,506Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14AVLFEN-TIE
19.1%22.5%−3.4 pts0.22 / 0.230.7822,463 / 1,781Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Aston Villa to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL2
44.5%35.0%—0.34 / 0.360.663,304 / 363Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Aston Villa to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-AVL3
24.0%16.5%—0.15 / 0.180.852,135 / 10,594Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN2
4.0%6.5%—0.05 / 0.080.951,259 / 17,348Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Fenerbahçe to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14AVLFEN-FEN3
0.9%2.0%—0.01 / 0.030.991,626 / 300Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-1
95.0%94.5%—0.94 / 0.950.062 / 2,612Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-2
81.1%81.0%—0.80 / 0.820.201,304 / 1,441Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-3
58.8%59.0%—0.58 / 0.600.421,453 / 1,442Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-4
36.4%35.5%—0.35 / 0.360.650 / 2,706Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-5
19.3%18.5%—0.17 / 0.200.831,342 / 5,203Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14AVLFEN-6
8.9%8.5%—0.07 / 0.100.931,361 / 3,547Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:03.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home56.6%55.5% – 57.3%59.7%1.681068.0%+11.5 pts
1x2:draw24.1%23.1% – 24.8%25.3%3.951019.1%−5.0 pts
1x2:away19.6%18.8% – 20.5%20.4%4.901012.9%−6.7 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:59 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.0%56.6% – 58.7%59.9%1.677——
total_goals:under:2.543.0%41.3% – 43.4%44.8%2.237——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:59 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 5.05 · draw 3.95 · home 1.6911/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairMatch winneraway 5.00 · draw 3.90 · home 1.6511/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleMatch winneraway 4.90 · draw 4.17 · home 1.6811/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOMatch winneraway 4.32 · draw 3.70 · home 1.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
William HillMatch winneraway 4.60 · draw 3.80 · home 1.6711/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Match winneraway 5.00 · draw 3.80 · home 1.6711/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
DafabetMatch winneraway 4.90 · draw 4.00 · home 1.7011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetMatch winneraway 5.18 · draw 4.06 · home 1.7411/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoMatch winneraway 4.75 · draw 3.95 · home 1.7011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorMatch winneraway 4.75 · draw 4.00 · home 1.6511/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.74 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.61 · under 2.5 2.1311/10/2026, 09:30:5910/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:03.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:59 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Aston Villaok11/10/2026, 01:39:26 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Fenerbahçeok11/10/2026, 01:39:39 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home68.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw19.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away12.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x87.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x232.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1280.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes51.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no48.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.558.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.541.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.536.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.563.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.519.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.588.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.511.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.564.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.535.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.537.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.562.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.518.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.581.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.557.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.542.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.520.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.579.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.55.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.594.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.524.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.576.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.544.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.555.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.568.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.532.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.587.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.512.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.596.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.54.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home84.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away15.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 453 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:03