Got%OnIt
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Ligue 1·Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT

LillevStade Brestois 29

Lille
53%
Draw
24%
Stade Brestois 29
22%

Got%OnIt gives Lille a 53% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Lille and 1.0 for Stade Brestois 29.
  • Lille won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Stade Brestois 29 won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Lille are 2nd of 18 after 6 games; Stade Brestois 29 are 7th.
  • Lille have won 4 and lost 1; Stade Brestois 29 have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Lille

  • W1–0v Le Havre10 Oct
  • L1–2at Nice20 Sept
  • W2–0v Estac Troyes13 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Betis8 Sept
  • W1–0at Toulouse3 Sept
  • D2–2v Paris Saint Germain28 Aug

Stade Brestois 29

  • W5–1v Angers10 Oct
  • L1–2at Auxerre20 Sept
  • L0–1v Paris Saint Germain13 Sept
  • W2–1at Le Havre5 Sept
  • D2–2v Toulouse29 Aug
  • D2–2at Le Mans22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Lille win53.4%56.7%+3.3 pts
Draw24.5%23.2%−1.2 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%20.1%−2.1 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.72 and 1.02). Lille 1.72 · Stade Brestois 29 1.02 · total 2.74 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Lille–Stade Brestois 29)

  1. 1–111.6%
  2. 1–010.8%
  3. 2–19.7%
  4. 2–09.5%
  5. 0–06.7%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Lille

Expected goals
1.72
Scoring vs average
×1.09
Conceding vs average
×0.81

Stade Brestois 29

Expected goals
1.02
Scoring vs average
×0.81
Conceding vs average
×1.09
  • Lille (home): expected to score ×1.09 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.81 the average.
  • Stade Brestois 29 (away): expected to score ×0.81 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.09 the average.
  • Recent 298 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.58 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.25).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Lille
141 matches (139 with xG)
Stade Brestois 29
118 matches (118 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home53.4%over-stated by 0.1 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 51.7%
1x2:draw24.5%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 21.9%
1x2:away22.2%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 20.5%
double_chance:1x77.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x246.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes52.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no47.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.3%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.9%
total_goals:under:0.56.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.576.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.6%
total_goals:under:1.523.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.551.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.0%
total_goals:under:2.548.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.529.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.9%
total_goals:under:3.570.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.514.3%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 12.4%
total_goals:under:4.585.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.56.0%under-stated by 0.0 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 5.2%
total_goals:under:5.594.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.582.1%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.5%
team_total:home:under:0.517.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.551.2%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.6%
team_total:home:under:1.548.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.524.7%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.2%
team_total:home:under:2.575.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.59.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.6%
team_total:home:under:3.590.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.564.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.4%
team_total:away:under:0.535.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.527.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 26.7%
team_total:away:under:1.572.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.58.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.1%
team_total:away:under:2.591.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.0%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.7%
team_total:away:under:3.598.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.513.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.0%
spread:away:+2.586.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.5%
spread:home:-1.529.5%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 27.5%
spread:away:+1.570.5%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 69.9%
spread:home:-0.553.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.5%
spread:away:+0.546.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.0%
spread:home:+0.577.8%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.3%
spread:away:-0.522.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.0%
spread:home:+1.591.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.5%
spread:away:-1.58.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.4%
spread:home:+2.597.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home70.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away29.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.13 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 8795228900683632561 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.17 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Lille win53.4%53.7% ± 0.2+0.32 pts
Draw24.5%23.7% ± 0.1−0.72 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%22.6% ± 0.1+0.41 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.13 pts (btts:yes); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Lille
35.9% ± 0.2 (exact 35.9%)
Stade Brestois 29
18.1% ± 0.1 (exact 17.9%)

Goal difference (Lille minus Stade Brestois 29)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.4% ± 0.0
  4. -31.8% ± 0.0
  5. -25.8% ± 0.1
  6. -114.4% ± 0.1
  7. 023.7% ± 0.1
  8. 124.1% ± 0.1
  9. 216.6% ± 0.1
  10. 38.3% ± 0.1
  11. 43.3% ± 0.1
  12. 51.0% ± 0.0
  13. >50.4% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 2911.3% ± 0.111.6%
Lille 1–0 Stade Brestois 2911.0% ± 0.110.8%
Lille 2–1 Stade Brestois 299.8% ± 0.19.7%
Lille 2–0 Stade Brestois 299.6% ± 0.19.5%
Lille 0–1 Stade Brestois 296.6% ± 0.16.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Lille
mean 1.72 · variance 1.71 · ± 0.004
Stade Brestois 29
mean 1.02 · variance 1.02 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move lille win by −3.0 pts (to 50.4%). Expected goals move −0.12 for Lille and +0.02 for Stade Brestois 29.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lille win53.4%50.4%−3.0 pts
Draw24.5%25.0%+0.5 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%24.6%+2.5 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.021.60 – 1.04−0.12 / +0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 51 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Lille

Attack ×0.93 band 0.90–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 13.9% of goals share out

  • H. Igamane F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 7.8% · effect −7.8% REPORTED
  • E. Mbappe M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
  • T. Santos D Questionable (Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −2.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Ozer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Stade Brestois 29

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Selvik)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move lille win by +1.1 pts (to 54.5%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Lille and −0.05 for Stade Brestois 29.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lille win53.4%54.5%+1.1 pts
Draw24.5%24.0%−0.5 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%21.5%−0.7 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.021.70 – 0.97−0.02 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 51 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lille rate ×0.99 band 0.58–1.64

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29 rate ×0.95 band 0.62–1.71

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move lille win by −2.1 pts (to 51.2%). Expected goals move −0.13 for Lille and −0.03 for Stade Brestois 29.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lille win53.4%51.2%−2.1 pts
Draw24.5%25.2%+0.7 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%23.6%+1.4 pts
Expected goals1.72 – 1.021.58 – 0.99−0.13 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 3 · ESTIMATED 51 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Lille

Attack ×0.93 band 0.90–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 13.9% of goals share out

  • H. Igamane F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 7.8% · effect −7.8% REPORTED
  • E. Mbappe M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
  • T. Santos D Questionable (Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −2.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Ozer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Stade Brestois 29

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Selvik)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Lille rate ×0.99 band 0.58–1.64

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29 rate ×0.95 band 0.62–1.71

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Lille win53.4%54.6%+1.3 pts
Draw24.5%23.6%−0.9 pts
Stade Brestois 29 win22.2%21.8%−0.4 pts
Expected goals—1.75 – 1.01+0.03 / −0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 577 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)L. Ajorque 21% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Lille

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Haraldsson M17.5% ± 0.11.6% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00178%
O. Giroud F15.4% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00145%
A. Ueda F8.6% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00144%
N. Ngoy D8.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00178%
B. Andre M7.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00157%
D. Bakwa F5.7% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00137%
R. Perraud D5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00191%
Alexsandro D4.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00189%

Stade Brestois 29

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 63% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Ajorque F20.7% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.002100%
K. Doumbia M15.5% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00197%
P. Mboup F6.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00189%
K. Lala D3.4% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00196%
L. Tousart M2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00142%
M. Balde F2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00034%
J. Chotard M2.0% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00094%
H. Magnetti M1.6% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00078%

Run 985 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 480, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lille)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Stade Brestois 29)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Ligue 1 matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLille 4.0 d rest (short) · Stade Brestois 29 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lille

4 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Galatasaray +3.9 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −4 d before (A Arsenal); UEFA Champions League +3.9 d after (H Galatasaray) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1A NiceL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H Le HavreW 1–0counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLA ArsenalNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Galatasaray+3.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1A Monaco+7.8 d
  • Fri 30 OctL1H Lens+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: N. Ngoy (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lille: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Alexsandro Ribeiro · regularD090—
M. KjærgaardM090—
O. GiroudF057—
N. Bentaleb · regularM090—
B. Özer · regularG090—
Tiago Santos · regularD022—
R. Perraud · regularD073—
D. BakwaM090—
N. Mukau · regularM073—
G. PerrinM057—
T. NianzouD090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — H. Haraldsson (90' Iceland, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Nice +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1A AuxerreL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H AngersW 5–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctL1H Nice+6 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: R. Le Guen (D) — reason unknown; R. Del Castillo (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.5 CONFIRMED

Stade Brestois 29: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Chotard · regularM7979—
K. Doumbia · regularM7979—
L. Ajorque · regularF8686—
G. LlorisD9090—
K. Lala · regularD9090—
E. SelvikG9018090' Norway, 13 d before
H. Magnetti · regularM9090—
L. TousartD9090—
B. LockoD9090—
P. Mboup · regularM8585—
Mama BaldéM6161—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — E. Selvik (90' Norway, 13 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Lille53%56%53%
Draw24%24%24%
Stade Brestois 2922%20%23%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lille

  • Lille: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 60%.
  • Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • W1–0v Le Havre10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Nice20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Estac Troyes13 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Toulouse3 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Paris Saint Germain28 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Angers23 Aug · in model evidence

Stade Brestois 29

  • Stade Brestois 29: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W5–1v Angers10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Auxerre20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Paris Saint Germain13 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Le Havre5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Toulouse29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Le Mans22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.576%
Over 2.552%
Over 3.529%
Both teams score53%

Lille

Expected goals1.72
Scores at least once82%
Scores 2 or more51%
Clean sheet36%

Stade Brestois 29

Expected goals1.02
Scores at least once64%
Scores 2 or more27%
Clean sheet18%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season2nd v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lille

2nd of 18 · 13 pts · W4 D1 L1 from 6 games · scored 9, conceded 4

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WLWWD (most recent last)

Stade Brestois 29

7th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 7, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 5, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLLWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Lille to win53.4%53.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 54¢
Draw24.5%23.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Stade Brestois 29 to win22.2%22.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Double chance
Lille or draw limited evidence77.8%77.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Stade Brestois 29 or draw limited evidence46.6%46.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.5%76.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Draw no bet
Lille to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence70.6%70.4% ± 0.2no
Stade Brestois 29 to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence29.4%29.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.3%93.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.7%6.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence76.2%76.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 80¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence23.8%24.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Over 2.5 goals in total51.6%51.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
Under 2.5 goals in total48.4%48.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence29.5%29.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence70.5%70.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 68¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence14.3%14.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence85.7%85.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 84¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence6.0%5.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence94.0%94.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence52.9%52.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence47.1%47.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Team goals
Lille over 0.5 goals limited evidence82.1%81.9% ± 0.1no
Lille under 0.5 goals limited evidence17.9%18.1% ± 0.1no
Lille over 1.5 goals limited evidence51.2%51.4% ± 0.2no
Lille under 1.5 goals limited evidence48.8%48.6% ± 0.2no
Lille over 2.5 goals limited evidence24.7%24.8% ± 0.1no
Lille under 2.5 goals limited evidence75.3%75.2% ± 0.1no
Lille over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.6%9.5% ± 0.1no
Lille under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.4%90.5% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 over 0.5 goals limited evidence64.1%64.1% ± 0.2no
Stade Brestois 29 under 0.5 goals limited evidence35.9%35.9% ± 0.2no
Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 goals limited evidence27.3%27.4% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 under 1.5 goals limited evidence72.7%72.6% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 over 2.5 goals limited evidence8.5%8.4% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 under 2.5 goals limited evidence91.5%91.6% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.0%2.0% ± 0.0no
Stade Brestois 29 under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.0%98.0% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Lille to win by 3 or more limited evidence13.1%13.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Lille to win by 2 or more limited evidence29.5%29.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
Lille to win by 1 or more limited evidence53.4%53.7% ± 0.2no
Lille not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence77.8%77.4% ± 0.1no
Lille not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence91.9%91.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Lille not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.7%97.7% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Stade Brestois 29 to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.3%2.3% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Stade Brestois 29 to win by 2 or more limited evidence8.1%8.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Stade Brestois 29 to win by 1 or more limited evidence22.2%22.6% ± 0.1no
Stade Brestois 29 not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence46.6%46.3% ± 0.2no
Stade Brestois 29 not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence70.5%70.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Stade Brestois 29 not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence86.9%87.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Clean sheet
Lille clean sheet grid35.9%35.9% ± 0.2no
Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet grid17.9%18.1% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.7% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 1—24.1% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 2—16.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 3—8.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 4—3.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 5—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by exactly 1—14.4% ± 0.1not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by exactly 2—5.8% ± 0.1not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by exactly 3—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by exactly 4—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Lille by 6 or more—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Stade Brestois 29 by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29—11.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lille 1–0 Stade Brestois 29—11.0% ± 0.1not listed
Lille 2–1 Stade Brestois 29—9.8% ± 0.1not listed
Lille 2–0 Stade Brestois 29—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lille 0–1 Stade Brestois 29—6.6% ± 0.1not listed

Lille v Stade Brestois 29: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Lille to win (90 minutes)
53%
53%
YES on Lille to WinLille wins in 90 minutes
53%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,026 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes)
22%
23%
YES on Stade Brestois 29 to WinStade Brestois 29 wins in 90 minutes
22%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,075 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
24%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,806 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLille or Stade Brestois 29 wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%77¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 829 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Stade Brestois 29 to WinLille wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
78%78¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,269 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille to WinStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
47%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,421 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 954 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
76%
79%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
76%80¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 413 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
24%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 446 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
52%
56%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
52%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
48%45¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 917 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
33%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
29%34¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 502 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
71%68¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 684 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 503 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 444 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 783 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
57%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%59¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,909 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,629 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins by 2 goals or more
30%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,024 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 1 goal · Lille not by 2+ goals
70%72¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 848 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins by 3 goals or more
13%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,018 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lille not by 3+ goals
87%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 414 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or more
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,017 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 1 goal · Stade Brestois 29 not by 2+ goals
92%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsStade Brestois 29 wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 123 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Stade Brestois 29 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2 goals or fewer · Stade Brestois 29 not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,074 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 53.4% · draw 24.5% · away 22.2%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.02
Lille eligible matches
141 (139 with xG)
Stade Brestois 29 eligible matches
118 (118 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LilleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLe Havrehome1–01.35–1.34W
20 SeptNiceaway1–21.58–1.50L
13 SeptEstac Troyeshome2–01.65–0.38W
8 SeptReal Betishome2–30.83–1.80L
3 SeptToulouseaway1–01.21–3.46W
28 AugParis Saint Germainhome2–21.27–1.44D
Stade Brestois 29OpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAngershome5–13.90–1.45W
20 SeptAuxerreaway1–20.34–0.96L
13 SeptParis Saint Germainhome0–11.24–1.16L
5 SeptLe Havreaway2–12.37–2.02W
29 AugToulousehome2–23.04–1.14D
22 AugLe Mansaway2–22.72–0.67D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17LILSTB-BTTS
52.9%57.0%−4.1 pts0.55 / 0.590.451,909 / 3,629Comparable
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lille to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL
53.4%53.0%+0.4 pts0.52 / 0.540.482,026 / 2,421Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Stade Brestois 29 to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-STB
22.2%22.5%−0.3 pts0.22 / 0.230.781,075 / 1,269Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17LILSTB-TIE
24.5%24.0%+0.5 pts0.23 / 0.250.775,806 / 829Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL2
29.5%30.0%−0.5 pts0.28 / 0.320.721,024 / 848Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-LIL3
13.1%13.5%−0.4 pts0.12 / 0.150.881,018 / 414Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB2
8.1%7.5%+0.6 pts0.06 / 0.090.941,017 / 25Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Stade Brestois 29 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17LILSTB-STB3
2.3%3.0%−0.7 pts0.01 / 0.050.99123 / 1,074Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-1
93.3%94.0%−0.7 pts0.93 / 0.950.072 / 954Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-2
76.2%79.0%−2.8 pts0.78 / 0.800.22413 / 446Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-3
51.6%56.5%−4.9 pts0.55 / 0.580.451,123 / 917Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-4
29.5%33.0%−3.5 pts0.32 / 0.340.68502 / 684Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-5
14.3%17.0%−2.7 pts0.16 / 0.180.84503 / 444Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17LILSTB-6
6.0%7.0%−1.0 pts0.06 / 0.080.94505 / 783Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:22.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home55.5%54.8% – 57.3%59.5%1.681053.4%−2.1 pts
1x2:draw24.0%23.2% – 24.5%25.4%3.941024.5%+0.4 pts
1x2:away20.2%19.5% – 20.8%21.5%4.651022.2%+2.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.555.6%54.8% – 56.0%58.5%1.71751.6%−3.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.544.4%44.0% – 45.2%47.2%2.12748.4%+3.9 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:26.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 4.90 · draw 4.10 · home 1.6811/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 4.75 · draw 4.00 · home 1.6211/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 4.79 · draw 3.98 · home 1.6811/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOMatch winneraway 4.29 · draw 3.62 · home 1.6111/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
William HillMatch winneraway 4.60 · draw 3.80 · home 1.6711/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Match winneraway 4.50 · draw 3.80 · home 1.7011/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 4.60 · draw 4.00 · home 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 5.03 · draw 4.21 · home 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 4.70 · draw 3.90 · home 1.7211/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictorMatch winneraway 4.50 · draw 3.80 · home 1.6511/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 2.1611/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.65 · under 2.5 2.1011/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.71 · under 2.5 2.1411/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.1011/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.76 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.1211/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.0411/10/2026, 11:37:2611/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:22.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:10 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Lilleok11/10/2026, 11:37:16 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Stade Brestois 29ok11/10/2026, 11:37:19 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home53.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away22.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x77.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x246.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes52.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.576.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.523.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.551.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.548.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.529.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.570.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.514.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.585.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.56.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.551.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.548.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.524.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.575.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.564.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.535.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.527.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.572.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.513.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.586.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.529.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.570.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.553.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.546.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home70.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away29.4%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 480 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:22