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Bundesliga·Sun 18 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Bayer LeverkusenvSC Freiburg

Bayer Leverkusen
59%
Draw
22%
SC Freiburg
20%

Got%OnIt gives Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.0 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.1 for SC Freiburg.
  • Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 a game.
  • SC Freiburg won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bayer Leverkusen are 4th of 18 after 5 games; SC Freiburg are 3rd.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 and lost 1; SC Freiburg have won 3 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Bayer Leverkusen

  • W4–3at FSV Mainz 0510 Oct
  • W2–0v RB Leipzig20 Sept
  • W2–0v Celje16 Sept
  • D2–2at FC Augsburg12 Sept
  • W4–0v Union Berlin5 Sept
  • L2–3at SV Elversberg29 Aug

SC Freiburg

  • W2–1v FC Schalke 0411 Oct
  • D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt19 Sept
  • W5–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach12 Sept
  • W1–0at SC Paderborn 075 Sept
  • W4–1v Werder Bremen30 Aug
  • W4–1v RB Leipzig16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%63.1%+4.3 pts
Draw21.7%19.0%−2.7 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%18.0%−1.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.02 and 1.09). Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 · SC Freiburg 1.09 · total 3.11 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Bayer Leverkusen–SC Freiburg)

  1. 1–110.1%
  2. 2–19.9%
  3. 2–09.1%
  4. 1–08.8%
  5. 3–16.7%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Bayer Leverkusen

Expected goals
2.02
Scoring vs average
×1.08
Conceding vs average
×0.76

SC Freiburg

Expected goals
1.09
Scoring vs average
×0.76
Conceding vs average
×1.08
  • Bayer Leverkusen (home): expected to score ×1.08 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.76 the average.
  • SC Freiburg (away): expected to score ×0.76 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.08 the average.
  • Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Bayer Leverkusen
142 matches (142 with xG)
SC Freiburg
131 matches (130 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home58.7%over-stated by 3.6 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 53.6%
1x2:draw21.7%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 19.3%
1x2:away19.6%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 18.3%
double_chance:1x80.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x241.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1278.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes57.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no42.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.3%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.0%
total_goals:under:0.54.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.4%
total_goals:under:1.518.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.560.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.4%
total_goals:under:2.539.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.537.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.1%
total_goals:under:3.562.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.520.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 19.0%
total_goals:under:4.579.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.5%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 8.6%
total_goals:under:5.590.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.586.8%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.3%
team_total:home:under:0.513.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.560.0%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.3%
team_total:home:under:1.540.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.532.9%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.3%
team_total:home:under:2.567.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.514.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.6%
team_total:home:under:3.585.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.566.3%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.6%
team_total:away:under:0.533.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.529.6%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.0%
team_total:away:under:1.570.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.59.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.3%
team_total:away:under:2.590.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.5%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.1%
team_total:away:under:3.597.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.517.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.6%
spread:away:+2.582.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.8%
spread:home:-1.535.7%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.6%
spread:away:+1.564.3%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.7%
spread:home:-0.558.7%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 56.9%
spread:away:+0.541.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.6%
spread:home:+0.580.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.9%
spread:away:-0.519.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.4%
spread:home:+1.592.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.4%
spread:away:-1.57.3%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.6%
spread:home:+2.597.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home75.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away25.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.25 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2038517102960777993 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.26 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%59.0% ± 0.2+0.30 pts
Draw21.7%21.1% ± 0.1−0.63 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%19.9% ± 0.1+0.33 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.25 pts (spread:home:-1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Bayer Leverkusen
33.8% ± 0.1 (exact 33.7%)
SC Freiburg
13.3% ± 0.1 (exact 13.2%)

Goal difference (Bayer Leverkusen minus SC Freiburg)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.4% ± 0.0
  4. -31.6% ± 0.0
  5. -25.2% ± 0.1
  6. -112.6% ± 0.1
  7. 021.1% ± 0.1
  8. 123.1% ± 0.1
  9. 218.2% ± 0.1
  10. 310.3% ± 0.1
  11. 44.8% ± 0.1
  12. 51.8% ± 0.0
  13. >50.8% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg9.9% ± 0.19.9%
Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 SC Freiburg9.8% ± 0.110.1%
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Freiburg9.3% ± 0.19.1%
Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 SC Freiburg8.9% ± 0.18.8%
Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 SC Freiburg6.8% ± 0.16.7%

Expected goals (simulated)

Bayer Leverkusen
mean 2.02 · variance 2.03 · ± 0.005
SC Freiburg
mean 1.08 · variance 1.08 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.5 pts (to 21.2%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Bayer Leverkusen and +0.00 for SC Freiburg.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%59.0%+0.3 pts
Draw21.7%21.2%−0.5 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%19.8%+0.3 pts
Expected goals2.02 – 1.092.02 – 1.09+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 138 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: C. KofaneESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Flekken)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

SC Freiburg

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: B. YilmazESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Backhaus)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move sc freiburg win by +0.8 pts (to 20.3%). Expected goals move −0.04 for Bayer Leverkusen and +0.00 for SC Freiburg.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%58.2%−0.6 pts
Draw21.7%21.5%−0.2 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%20.3%+0.8 pts
Expected goals2.02 – 1.091.98 – 1.09−0.04 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 138 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bayer Leverkusen rate ×0.98 band 0.76–1.28

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08181818181818179 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg rate ×1.00 band 0.78–1.34

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08181818181818179 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move sc freiburg win by +0.8 pts (to 20.3%). Expected goals move −0.04 for Bayer Leverkusen and +0.00 for SC Freiburg.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%58.2%−0.6 pts
Draw21.7%21.5%−0.2 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%20.3%+0.8 pts
Expected goals2.02 – 1.091.98 – 1.09−0.04 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 138 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: C. KofaneESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Flekken)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

SC Freiburg

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: B. YilmazESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Backhaus)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bayer Leverkusen rate ×0.98 band 0.76–1.28

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08181818181818179 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.007) CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg rate ×1.00 band 0.78–1.34

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08181818181818179 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Bayer Leverkusen win58.7%60.4%+1.6 pts
Draw21.7%20.5%−1.2 pts
SC Freiburg win19.6%19.1%−0.5 pts
Expected goals—2.10 – 1.10+0.08 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 599 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)P. Schick 47% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Bayer Leverkusen

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 86% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
P. Schick F46.6% ± 0.213.0% ± 0.10.63 ± 0.00389%
A. Garcia M14.4% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.001100%
I. Maza M13.0% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00186%
J. Quansah D12.1% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00172%
E. Tapsoba D10.1% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.001100%
M. Tillman M8.0% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00141%
R. Andrich D7.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00148%
C. Kofane F7.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00115%

SC Freiburg

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 94% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
I. Matanovic F23.8% ± 0.13.1% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.00294%
Y. Suzuki M16.2% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00193%
M. Eggestein M11.3% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.001100%
M. Ginter D10.7% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.001100%
D. Scherhant F8.8% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00190%
V. Grifo M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00110%
J. Beste D3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00193%
Y. Engelhardt M3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00187%

Run 996 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 491, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (SC Freiburg)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayer Leverkusen)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBayer Leverkusen 2.9 d rest (short) · SC Freiburg 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bayer Leverkusen

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A OFI +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.9 d before (A Lech Poznan) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptBLH RB LeipzigW 2–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA FSV Mainz 05W 4–3counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA Lech PoznanNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA OFI+4.1 d
  • Sun 25 OctBLA 1899 Hoffenheim+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH 1. FC Nürnberg+9.2 d
  • Sat 31 OctBLH VfB Stuttgart+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bayer Leverkusen: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
P. Schick · regularF083—
I. Maza · regularM066—
M. DiabyM075—
M. Flekken · regularG0900' Netherlands, 13.8 d before
Afonso MoreiraM075—
Miguel GutiérrezD090—
J. Quansah · regularD018090' England, 11.8 d before
Aleix García · regularM084—
R. AndrichM090—
F. MedinaD090—
E. Tapsoba · regularD090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — J. Quansah (90' England, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League A Monaco +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League −2.8 d before (H FK Jablonec) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLA Eintracht FrankfurtD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctBLH FC Schalke 04W 2–1counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUECLH FK JablonecNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUECLA Monaco+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctBLH Bayern München+7.1 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH VfL Wolfsburg+9.2 d
  • Sat 31 OctBLA FC Augsburg+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 11 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.6 CONFIRMED

SC Freiburg: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. Makengo · regularD9090—
P. Treu · regularD8317390' Germany, 13.8 d before
M. Ginter · regularD9090—
P. Lienhart · regularD90900' Austria, 13.9 d before
Y. Suzuki · regularM9090—
I. Matanović · regularF6513065' Croatia, 11.8 d before
D. Scherhant · regularM8316683' Germany, 13.8 d before
J. Beste · regularM6969—
Y. Engelhardt · regularM69690' Germany, 13.8 d before
M. Eggestein · regularM9090—
M. Backhaus · regularG9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 238 minutes — P. Treu (90' Germany, 13.8 d before); I. Matanović (65' Croatia, 11.8 d before); D. Scherhant (83' Germany, 13.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bayer Leverkusen59%57%56%
Draw22%22%21%
SC Freiburg20%21%22%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 22 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bayer Leverkusen

  • Bayer Leverkusen: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.3 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W4–3at FSV Mainz 0510 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–0v RB Leipzig20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at FC Augsburg12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Union Berlin5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–3at SV Elversberg29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Hamburger SV16 May · in model evidence

SC Freiburg

  • SC Freiburg: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W2–1v FC Schalke 0411 Oct · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at SC Paderborn 075 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Werder Bremen30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W4–1v RB Leipzig16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal13%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.538%
Both teams score58%

Bayer Leverkusen

Expected goals2.02
Scores at least once87%
Scores 2 or more60%
Clean sheet34%

SC Freiburg

Expected goals1.09
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more30%
Clean sheet13%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 3rd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bayer Leverkusen

4th of 18 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L1 from 5 games · scored 14, conceded 8

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 0) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 8, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games WWDWL (most recent last)

SC Freiburg

3rd of 18 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L0 from 4 games · scored 12, conceded 3

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 9, conceded 1) · Away W1 D1 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 4 games

Last five league games DWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win58.7%59.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
Draw21.7%21.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
SC Freiburg to win19.6%19.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or draw limited evidence80.4%80.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
SC Freiburg or draw limited evidence41.3%41.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 46¢
Not a draw limited evidence78.3%78.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 80¢
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence75.0%74.8% ± 0.2no
SC Freiburg to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence25.0%25.2% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.3%95.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.7%4.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.9%81.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 88¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.1%18.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 15¢
Over 2.5 goals in total60.1%60.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 66¢
Under 2.5 goals in total39.9%40.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 35¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence37.7%37.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 45¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence62.3%62.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 57¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence20.3%20.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence79.7%79.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.5%9.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence90.5%90.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence57.8%57.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 65¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence42.2%42.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 39¢
Team goals
Bayer Leverkusen over 0.5 goals limited evidence86.8%86.7% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen under 0.5 goals limited evidence13.2%13.3% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals limited evidence60.0%60.2% ± 0.2no
Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 goals limited evidence40.0%39.8% ± 0.2no
Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals limited evidence32.9%32.9% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen under 2.5 goals limited evidence67.1%67.1% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 goals limited evidence14.7%14.6% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen under 3.5 goals limited evidence85.3%85.4% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg over 0.5 goals limited evidence66.3%66.2% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg under 0.5 goals limited evidence33.7%33.8% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg over 1.5 goals limited evidence29.6%29.4% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg under 1.5 goals limited evidence70.4%70.6% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg over 2.5 goals limited evidence9.7%9.6% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg under 2.5 goals limited evidence90.3%90.4% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.5%2.5% ± 0.0no
SC Freiburg under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.5%97.5% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Bayer Leverkusen to win by 3 or more limited evidence17.7%17.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 19¢
Bayer Leverkusen to win by 2 or more limited evidence35.7%35.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Bayer Leverkusen to win by 1 or more limited evidence58.7%59.0% ± 0.2no
Bayer Leverkusen not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence80.4%80.1% ± 0.1no
Bayer Leverkusen not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence92.7%92.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Bayer Leverkusen not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.9%98.0% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
SC Freiburg to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.1%2.0% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 12¢
SC Freiburg to win by 2 or more limited evidence7.3%7.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
SC Freiburg to win by 1 or more limited evidence19.6%19.9% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence41.3%41.0% ± 0.2no
SC Freiburg not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence64.3%64.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 68¢
SC Freiburg not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence82.3%82.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 84¢
Clean sheet
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet grid33.7%33.8% ± 0.1no
SC Freiburg clean sheet grid13.2%13.3% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—21.1% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by exactly 1—23.1% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by exactly 2—18.2% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by exactly 3—10.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by exactly 4—4.8% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by exactly 5—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
SC Freiburg by exactly 1—12.6% ± 0.1not listed
SC Freiburg by exactly 2—5.2% ± 0.1not listed
SC Freiburg by exactly 3—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
SC Freiburg by exactly 4—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
SC Freiburg by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Bayer Leverkusen by 6 or more—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
SC Freiburg by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg—9.9% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 SC Freiburg—9.8% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Freiburg—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 SC Freiburg—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 SC Freiburg—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes)
59%
56%
YES on Bayer Leverkusen to WinBayer Leverkusen wins in 90 minutes
59%58¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,318 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes)
20%
22%
YES on SC Freiburg to WinSC Freiburg wins in 90 minutes
20%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 428 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
22%
21%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
22%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 23 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
78%80¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 484 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on SC Freiburg to WinBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
80%79¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 917 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Bayer Leverkusen to WinSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
41%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,232 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 389 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 332 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 840 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
66%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%66¢
Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%35¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
44%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
38%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,140 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
62%57¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,192 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%76¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,140 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 588 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
58%
63%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
58%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,711 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
42%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,917 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Winning margin
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
36%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or more
36%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 1 goal · Bayer Leverkusen not by 2+ goals
64%68¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 759 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins by 3 goals or more
18%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on Bayer Leverkusen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins or the match is drawn, or Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bayer Leverkusen not by 3+ goals
82%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or more
7%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 1 goal · SC Freiburg not by 2+ goals
93%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 717 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Freiburg wins by 3 goals or more
2%12¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
NO on SC Freiburg to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayer Leverkusen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Freiburg wins by 2 goals or fewer · SC Freiburg not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,032 contracts at the ask · quote 22 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 58.7% · draw 21.7% · away 19.6%
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.09
Bayer Leverkusen eligible matches
142 (142 with xG)
SC Freiburg eligible matches
131 (130 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Bayer LeverkusenOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctFSV Mainz 05away4–31.68–2.91W
20 SeptRB Leipzighome2–02.27–0.97W
16 SeptCeljehome2–01.93–0.90W
12 SeptFC Augsburgaway2–22.64–1.11D
5 SeptUnion Berlinhome4–03.11–0.39W
29 AugSV Elversbergaway2–31.88–1.27L
SC FreiburgOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctFC Schalke 04home2–11.07–0.32W
19 SeptEintracht Frankfurtaway2–23.09–2.18D
12 SeptBorussia Mönchengladbachhome5–02.60–0.19W
5 SeptSC Paderborn 07away1–01.24–0.77W
30 AugWerder Bremenhome4–12.37–0.54W
16 MayRB Leipzighome4–11.41–1.24W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT18LEVSCF-BTTS
57.8%63.0%−5.2 pts0.61 / 0.650.395,711 / 4,917Comparable
seen 22 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayer Leverkusen to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV
58.7%56.0%+2.7 pts0.54 / 0.580.461,318 / 1,232Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
SC Freiburg to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF
19.6%22.0%−2.4 pts0.21 / 0.230.79428 / 917Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT18LEVSCF-TIE
21.7%21.0%+0.7 pts0.20 / 0.220.8023 / 484Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV2
35.7%34.0%+1.7 pts0.32 / 0.360.68390 / 759Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bayer Leverkusen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-LEV3
17.7%17.5%+0.2 pts0.16 / 0.190.841,226 / 390Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
SC Freiburg to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF2
7.3%8.5%−1.2 pts0.07 / 0.100.93391 / 717Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
SC Freiburg to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18LEVSCF-SCF3
2.1%6.5%−4.4 pts0.01 / 0.120.994 / 1,032Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-1
95.3%96.0%−0.7 pts0.94 / 0.980.06389 / 332Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-2
81.9%86.5%−4.6 pts0.85 / 0.880.15840 / 37Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-3
60.1%65.5%−5.4 pts0.65 / 0.660.353 / 0Comparable
seen 22 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-4
37.7%44.0%−6.3 pts0.43 / 0.450.571,140 / 250Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-5
20.3%25.5%−5.2 pts0.24 / 0.270.761,192 / 2Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT18LEVSCF-6
9.5%12.5%−3.0 pts0.11 / 0.140.891,140 / 588Comparable
seen 22 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:03.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home56.9%55.5% – 57.8%60.6%1.651058.7%+1.8 pts
1x2:draw22.1%21.4% – 22.8%23.4%4.281021.7%−0.4 pts
1x2:away20.9%20.4% – 21.7%22.2%4.501019.6%−1.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:27 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.564.3%63.3% – 66.3%69.0%1.45760.1%−4.3 pts
total_goals:under:2.535.7%33.7% – 36.7%38.2%2.62739.9%+4.3 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 4.70 · draw 4.40 · home 1.6611/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 4.50 · draw 4.33 · home 1.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 4.46 · draw 4.43 · home 1.6511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 4.10 · draw 3.90 · home 1.6011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 4.40 · draw 4.20 · home 1.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 4.50 · draw 4.20 · home 1.6511/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 4.50 · draw 4.30 · home 1.6811/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 4.82 · draw 4.51 · home 1.7011/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 4.55 · draw 4.25 · home 1.6711/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 4.33 · draw 4.00 · home 1.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2711/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.6711/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:03.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:14 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Bayer Leverkusenok11/10/2026, 01:39:21 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · SC Freiburgok11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home58.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw21.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away19.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x80.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x241.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1278.3%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes57.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no42.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.560.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.539.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.537.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.579.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.586.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.513.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.560.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.540.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.532.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.567.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.514.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.585.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.566.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.533.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.529.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.570.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.517.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.582.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.535.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.564.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.558.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.541.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.580.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.519.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.592.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.57.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home75.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away25.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 491 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:03