Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Real MadridvSevilla

Real Madrid
75%
Draw
16%
Sevilla
9%

Got%OnIt gives Real Madrid a 75% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

  • Estimate available
  • Evidence: tested on past results
  • Usable Kalshi price

Core Every figure on this page is Core's: results and expected goals only. Compare the modes.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only past matches from 8 competitions (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League): the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • Matches behind the estimate: Real Madrid 163, Sevilla 127 (across 8 competitions).
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.5 goals for Real Madrid and 0.8 for Sevilla.
  • Real Madrid won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Sevilla won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Core does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself, or switch to Deep Dive, which applies it with a stated band.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Real Madrid are 4th of 20 after 8 games; Sevilla are 5th.
  • Real Madrid have won 6 and lost 2; Sevilla have won 4 and lost 2.

Recent form descriptive · from the matches the model used

Real Madrid

8W 0D 2L in the last 10 (2.40 points a match) · goals 25–11 · xG 21.4–9.1 (9 of 10 with xG) · last match won

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L, goals 11–6, xG 7.5–5.0.

This season's 9 matches carry 14 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 8 %; effective sample ≈ 119 of 163 matches.

Sevilla

5W 1D 4L in the last 10 (1.60 points a match) · goals 13–13 · xG 8.5–12.4 (10 of 10 with xG) · last match lost

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L, goals 5–7, xG 3.5–5.9.

This season's 7 matches carry 14 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 10 %; effective sample ≈ 90 of 127 matches.

Core applies no separate form or momentum term: these matches shape its strength estimate only through the weights above (half-life 365 days, refit at every snapshot).

Recent matches the model used

Real Madrid

  • W1–0v Villarreal10 Oct
  • L1–2at Atletico Madrid20 Sept
  • W3–2at Elche15 Sept
  • W4–1v Rayo Vallecano12 Sept
  • W2–1v Inter8 Sept
  • L0–1at Real Betis4 Sept

Sevilla

  • L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept
  • W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept
  • W1–0v Valencia11 Sept
  • D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept
  • L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug
  • W3–1at Athletic Club22 Aug

Core does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh; Deep Dive (toggle above) applies the availability and schedule facts as adjustments.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT (evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT; snapshot 893, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleMon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesMon 12 Oct, 09:41 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictioninjury reportMon 12 Oct, 21:54 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionleague tableMon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Sevilla)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Real Madrid)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageTue 13 Oct, 00:27 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.4 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W1–0v Villarreal10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Atletico Madrid20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Elche15 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Rayo Vallecano12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Real Betis4 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Malaga30 Aug · in model evidence

Sevilla

  • Sevilla: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D3–3at Levante12 Oct · not in model evidence
  • L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Valencia11 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal12%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more11%
Over 1.584%
Over 2.563%
Over 3.541%
Both teams score49%

Real Madrid

Expected goals2.49
Scores at least once92%
Scores 2 or more71%
Clean sheet46%

Sevilla

Expected goals0.77
Scores at least once54%
Scores 2 or more18%
Clean sheet8%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent: Got%OnIt's estimate, the bookmaker estimate and the Kalshi reference price. Agreement between them is not proof of accuracy.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Real Madrid75%76%79%
Draw16%15%14%
Sevilla9%9%9%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 13 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Kalshi market choices14 Kalshi contracts · 115 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 115 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Core · frozen headline snapshot The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Real Madrid to win74.7%74.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 79¢
Draw16.0%16.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Sevilla to win9.3%9.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw limited evidence90.7%90.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Sevilla or draw limited evidence25.3%25.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢
Not a draw limited evidence84.0%83.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Draw no bet
Real Madrid to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence88.9%88.9% ± 0.1no
Sevilla to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence11.1%11.1% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence96.0%95.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.0%4.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence83.8%83.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 89¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence16.2%16.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢
Over 2.5 goals in total63.2%63.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 2.5 goals in total36.8%36.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 31¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence41.0%41.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 51¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence59.0%58.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence23.0%23.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 31¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence77.0%77.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence11.2%11.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence88.8%88.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence49.5%49.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 54¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence50.5%50.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Team goals
Real Madrid over 0.5 goals limited evidence91.7%91.6% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 0.5 goals limited evidence8.3%8.4% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid over 1.5 goals limited evidence71.0%71.1% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 1.5 goals limited evidence29.0%28.9% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid over 2.5 goals limited evidence45.3%45.2% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid under 2.5 goals limited evidence54.7%54.8% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid over 3.5 goals limited evidence23.9%24.0% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 3.5 goals limited evidence76.1%76.0% ± 0.1no
Sevilla over 0.5 goals limited evidence53.8%53.8% ± 0.2no
Sevilla under 0.5 goals limited evidence46.2%46.2% ± 0.2no
Sevilla over 1.5 goals limited evidence18.1%18.3% ± 0.1no
Sevilla under 1.5 goals limited evidence81.9%81.7% ± 0.1no
Sevilla over 2.5 goals limited evidence4.3%4.4% ± 0.1no
Sevilla under 2.5 goals limited evidence95.7%95.6% ± 0.1no
Sevilla over 3.5 goals limited evidence0.8%0.8% ± 0.0no
Sevilla under 3.5 goals limited evidence99.2%99.2% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Real Madrid to win by 3 or more limited evidence31.1%31.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 35¢
Real Madrid to win by 2 or more limited evidence52.7%52.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
Real Madrid to win by 1 or more limited evidence74.7%74.5% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence90.7%90.7% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence97.4%97.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 99¢
Real Madrid not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.4%99.4% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Sevilla to win by 3 or more limited evidence0.6%0.6% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 20¢
Sevilla to win by 2 or more limited evidence2.6%2.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Sevilla to win by 1 or more limited evidence9.3%9.3% ± 0.1no
Sevilla not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence25.3%25.5% ± 0.1no
Sevilla not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence47.3%47.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Sevilla not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence68.9%69.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Clean sheet
Real Madrid clean sheet grid46.2%46.2% ± 0.2no
Sevilla clean sheet grid8.3%8.4% ± 0.1no
Correct scoreexact · no Kalshi correct-score contract listed yet (Kalshi lists them on match day)

Real Madrid goals down, Sevilla goals across. every figure is a cell, or a sum of cells, of the frozen score grid of the selected mode's snapshot; the "6+" row and column sum the grid beyond five goals; the simulation column is the run's own count of the same cells (run 1696, 100,000 draws).

Real Madrid \ Sevilla0123456+
04.0%2.8%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
19.4%7.6%2.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
211.9%9.2%3.5%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
39.9%7.6%2.9%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%
46.1%4.7%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
53.0%2.4%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6+1.9%1.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla11.9%12.0% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 3–0 Sevilla9.9%9.8% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla9.4%9.2% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 2–1 Sevilla9.2%9.2% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 3–1 Sevilla7.6%7.5% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi
Real Madrid 0 goals8.3%8.4% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 1 goal20.7%20.5% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 2 goals25.7%25.9% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 3 goals21.3%21.2% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 4 goals13.3%13.3% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 5 goals6.6%6.5% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid 6+ goals4.1%4.1% ± 0.1no
Sevilla exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi
Sevilla 0 goals46.2%46.2% ± 0.2no
Sevilla 1 goal35.7%35.5% ± 0.2no
Sevilla 2 goals13.8%13.9% ± 0.1no
Sevilla 3 goals3.5%3.6% ± 0.1no
Sevilla 4 goals0.7%0.7% ± 0.0no
Sevilla 5 goals0.1%0.1% ± 0.0no
Sevilla 6+ goals0.0%0.0% ± 0.0no
Winning margin (exact goal difference)exact · Kalshi lists half-line spreads only
Sevilla by 6 or more0.0%0.0% ± 0.0no
Sevilla by exactly 50.0%0.0% ± 0.0no
Sevilla by exactly 40.1%0.1% ± 0.0no
Sevilla by exactly 30.5%0.5% ± 0.0no
Sevilla by exactly 22.1%2.1% ± 0.0no
Sevilla by exactly 16.7%6.7% ± 0.1no
Draw (goal difference 0)16.0%16.2% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by exactly 122.0%21.9% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by exactly 221.6%21.6% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by exactly 315.6%15.7% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by exactly 48.9%8.9% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by exactly 54.2%4.1% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid by 6 or more2.4%2.4% ± 0.0no

Mass outside the stored grid: 0.0059 %.

Real Madrid v Sevilla: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Real Madrid to win (90 minutes)
75%
79%
Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Real Madrid to WinReal Madrid wins in 90 minutes
75%79¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,332 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sevilla to win (90 minutes)
9%
9%
Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Sevilla to WinSevilla wins in 90 minutes
9%9¢
Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 778 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
16%
14%
Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
16%15¢
Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 5,230 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawReal Madrid or Sevilla wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
84%87¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,131 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Sevilla to WinReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
91%92¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 75 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Real Madrid to WinSevilla wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
25%22¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
96%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 679 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 15 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
84%
88%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
84%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 659 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
16%14¢
Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,004 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
63%
70%
Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
63%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 663 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
37%31¢
Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,021 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
49%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
41%51¢
Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,690 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
59%53¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,672 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
23%
29%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
23%31¢
Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,434 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
77%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,687 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
16%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
11%17¢
Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 679 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
89%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 663 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
49%
53%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
49%54¢
Limited evidence · No measured calibration for this position, so High Confidence leaves it out (point-probability ranking admits it) · 1,043 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
51%48¢
Limited evidence · No measured calibration for this position, so High Confidence leaves it out (point-probability ranking admits it) · 1,060 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Winning margin
Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
53%
56%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
53%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 678 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 1 goal · Real Madrid not by 2+ goals
47%45¢
Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 673 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
31%
35%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
31%35¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer · Real Madrid not by 3+ goals
69%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,017 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
8%
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote
YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 2 goals or more
3%14¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 1 goal · Sevilla not by 2+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,431 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
—
Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · No usable price: no Kalshi quote
YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 3 goals or more
1%20¢
No two-sided Kalshi quote, so no comparison · 30 contracts at the ask · quote 13 min old
NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sevilla not by 3+ goals
99%—
Kalshi NO price unavailable
Available prediction types: 11 the app can estimate · 18 listed on Kalshi but not estimated
  • Both teams to score — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Clean sheet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (= opponent under 0.5); no Kalshi contract
  • Correct score (exact 90-minute score) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (one cell per score, the full grid on the match page); Kalshi correct-score contracts are fetched and classified (listed on match day); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Double chance — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); traded on Kalshi as the NO side of the match-result contracts · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Draw no bet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (conditional on no draw; void on a draw); no Kalshi contract
  • Exact goal difference / winning margin — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract beyond the half-line spreads
  • Exact team goals — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (marginal of one axis, shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract
  • Match result (home / draw / away) and the NO sides (double chances) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Team goals over / under (half lines 0.5–3.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); Kalshi lists team-total contracts on match day only (verified 2026-10-12), so they appear in Lab and Build late · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Total goals over / under (half lines 0.5–5.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Winning margin / handicap (half lines) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
  • Anytime goalscorer / two or more goals — supported by simulation only: player allocation of simulated team goals (expected minutes, scoring share, availability); shown with Monte Carlo standard errors; Kalshi lists no player contract today (series fetched; classified only once their rules are verified on live contracts)

Listed on Kalshi; not estimated by Got%OnIt (shown so nothing is silently substituted):

  • First goalscorer — no event-order model: the simulation allocates goals per match, not in time order · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
  • First team to score — no event-order model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • First-half both teams to score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • First-half correct score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • First-half result — no half-time model: the engines estimate 90-minute goals only · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • First-half spread — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • First-half total goals — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • Method of victory / advancing — no extra-time or penalty model; the result rule is regulation time · needs settlement or data insufficient for a defensible probability
  • Relegation — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Season last place — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Season leader — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Season points margin — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Season team points — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Season top finish — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Team corners — no corners model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • To advance (knockout tie) — no two-leg / extra-time / penalty model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
  • Total corners — no corners model (corner counts are not part of the evidence) · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
  • Tournament winner — no season or tournament simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)

a family is supported only when its contract semantics are read by the classifier and its event is a function of the 90-minute score grid (or, for player events, of the simulation's goal allocation); nothing is supported because it exists on Kalshi every supported family is served by both modes from the selected mode's own snapshot; prices are the same under both.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

No changes detected in the sources checked since the prediction (injuries, standings, season figures).

Injury list compared with the one known at the prediction instant.

Team situationReal Madrid 1 absent regular · Sevilla 6 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Tue 13 Oct, 00:41 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label. None of it changes Core's estimate; Deep Dive (toggle above) applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments.

Used by Core

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

Core (the configured headline engine) uses none of the cross-competition or player facts below; its inputs are the finished results above. Deep Dive applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments with uncertainty bands and is recorded as its own identity; the walk-forward experiments on this evidence (report §14) did not justify changing Core itself.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by Core: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment under Core.

Real Madrid

4 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H RB Leipzig +3 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −4 d before (A AS Roma); UEFA Champions League +3 d after (H RB Leipzig) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLA Atletico MadridL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLH VillarrealW 1–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA AS RomaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH RB Leipzig+3 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLA Barcelona+7 d
  • Sun 1 NovLLA Racing Santander+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 61 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Huijsen (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Real Madrid: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Álvaro FernándezD045—
A. RüdigerD090—
I. Konaté · regularD090—
T. Alexander-ArnoldD014290' England, 12 d before
Kylian Mbappé · regularF090—
A. GülerM077—
A. TchouaméniM090—
Y. DiomandeM086—
J. Bellingham · regularM016373' England, 12 d before
F. Valverde · regularM090—
T. Courtois · regularG090—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 341 minutes — Marc Cucurella (90' Spain, 12 d before); T. Alexander-Arnold (90' England, 12 d before); E. Camavinga (88' France, 13 d before); J. Bellingham (73' England, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Sevilla

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Osasuna +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptLLH BarcelonaL 1–3counted as workload
  • Mon 12 OctLLA LevanteD 3–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Mon 26 OctLLH Osasuna+8 d
  • Thu 29 OctCdRA Hortaleza+11 d
  • Sun 1 NovLLA Getafe+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Mon 12 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.2 CONFIRMED

Sevilla: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Y. FofanaM9090—
L. Agoumé · regularM9090—
Félix CorreiaM7272—
Miguel Ángel · regularM6868—
G. KochorashviliM8813446' Georgia, 13 d before
G. Suazo · regularD9090—
R. UreF68713' Scotland, 12 d before
Juan Iglesias · regularD9090—
Andrés Castrín · regularD9090—
O. Vlachodimos · regularG9090—
Kike Salas · regularD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 49 minutes — G. Kochorashvili (46' Georgia, 13 d before); R. Ure (3' Scotland, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Lineups not confirmed. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Player availabilityno absences listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change Core's estimate. Deep Dive (toggle above) applies it as a stated adjustment.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsLineups not confirmed

Lineups not confirmed yet. They are usually published about an hour before kickoff; we start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Real Madrid

4th of 20 · 18 pts · W6 D0 L2 from 8 games · scored 19, conceded 8

Home W4 D0 L0 (scored 13, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 8 games

Last five league games WLWWL (most recent last)

Sevilla

5th of 20 · 14 pts · W4 D2 L2 from 8 games · scored 13, conceded 12

Home W2 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 7) · Away W2 D2 L0 (scored 8, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 8 games

Last five league games DLWWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 3 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 13 Oct.

Player scoring (simulation)K. Mbappe 60% anytime

Simulation · player layer on Core's goals Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with Core's team goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Real Madrid

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 86% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
K. Mbappe F60.3% ± 0.223.7% ± 0.10.93 ± 0.003100%
Vinicius Junior F31.9% ± 0.15.6% ± 0.10.38 ± 0.00275%
F. Valverde D22.6% ± 0.12.7% ± 0.10.26 ± 0.002100%
J. Bellingham M21.7% ± 0.12.6% ± 0.10.24 ± 0.00286%
A. Güler M7.4% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00171%
A. Rudiger D4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00140%
Álvaro Fernández D3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00145%
D. Huijsen D3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00163%

Sevilla

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 43% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
K. Salas D4.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00170%
M. Sierra F4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00189%
J. Iglesias D2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00189%
I. Romero F2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00125%
Y. Fofana M2.0% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00055%
Castrin D1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00075%
Peque F1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00021%
C. Ejuke F1.6% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00012%

Run 1696 (mc-v1:dc+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 12/10/2026, 09:31:18. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

Core | Deep DiveCore selected

Deep Dive moves Real Madrid by +1.7 points against Core (74.7% → 76.4%). Lineups not confirmed.

Compare modesCore and Deep Dive side by side
MarketCoreDeep DiveDifferenceΔ
Real Madrid to win74.7%76.4% 65%–86%+1.7 pts
Draw16.0%15.5% 10%–21%-0.6 pts
Sevilla to win9.3%8.2% 4%–14%-1.2 pts
Both teams to score49.5%46.2% 38%–55%-3.3 pts
Sevilla over 1.5 goals18.1%15.5% 11%–21%-2.6 pts
Sevilla or draw25.3%23.6% 14%–35%-1.7 pts
Real Madrid to win by 2 or more52.7%54.4% 41%–68%+1.7 pts
Over 3.5 goals in total41.0%39.4% 27%–54%-1.6 pts

Difference = Deep Dive − Core, in percentage points. The small range beside a Deep Dive figure is the range if context assumptions change: the span of that figure if every adjustment assumption sat at either end of its stated band (availability and schedule load together). It is not a statistical confidence interval. The Deep Dive figures come from that mode’s own stored snapshot (#981); nothing is recomputed.

What changed the estimate?4 adjustments applied
  • Player availability · Real Madrid×0.976 (-2.4 %), band ×0.964–×0.988REPORTED

    Eder Militao out (1 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; F. Mendy out [REPORTED]; Rodrygo out (2 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; R. Asencio out (2 % of recent goals) [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used)

  • Player availability · Sevilla×0.985 (-1.5 %), band ×0.977–×0.992REPORTED

    Marcao out [REPORTED]; L. Stassin out (3 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; I. Munoz out [REPORTED]; N. Guilen out [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used)

  • Schedule load · Real Madrid×1.026 (+2.6 %), band ×0.853–×1.235CONFIRMED

    congestion 14d (opponent) -1.00 → 2.1 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.36 → -0.4 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.27 → -0.9 %; uefa next 4d (own) 1.00 → 2.6 %

  • Schedule load · Sevilla×0.917 (-8.3 %), band ×0.758–×1.108CONFIRMED

    congestion 14d (own) -1.00 → -1.3 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.27 → -0.3 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.36 → -1.2 %; uefa next 4d (opponent) 1.00 → -5.0 %

Availability constants are stated priors with bands (half of a missing player’s recent scoring share, band a quarter to three quarters; +3 % opponent goals per missing defensive starter, band 1.5–4.5 %). Schedule-load coefficients are walk-forward medians whose bands include zero. 4 adjustment(s) moved the figures.

Freshness. Deep Dive inputs as of 12 Oct 16:35 UTC; line-ups not yet published, expected XIs used (as of 15 h ago; newest input 6 h ago before that instant).

Core: team strength, scoring levels, home advantage and the low-score correction from results and expected goals; no line-ups, injuries or schedule inputs. Deep Dive: Core plus reported absences, confirmed or expected line-ups, the goalkeeper and schedule load, each with an uncertainty band; equal to Core when nothing defensible applies. Paired forward record so far: 0 settled fixture(s); neither mode is called more accurate until the pre-registered rule is met.

How this estimate was builtscorelines, team strength, evidence, calibration

Why this prediction

Core · frozen headline snapshot What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Real Madrid win74.7%76.0%+1.3 pts
Draw16.0%15.1%−0.9 pts
Sevilla win9.3%8.9%−0.4 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.49 and 0.77). Real Madrid 2.49 · Sevilla 0.77 · total 3.26 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Real Madrid–Sevilla)

  1. 2–011.9%
  2. 3–09.9%
  3. 1–09.4%
  4. 2–19.2%
  5. 3–17.6%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9999).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Real Madrid

Expected goals
2.49
Scoring vs average
×1.54
Conceding vs average
×0.67

Sevilla

Expected goals
0.77
Scoring vs average
×0.67
Conceding vs average
×1.54
  • Real Madrid (home): expected to score ×1.54 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.67 the average.
  • Sevilla (away): expected to score ×0.67 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.54 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Real Madrid
163 matches across 8 competitions (160 with xG)
Sevilla
127 matches across 8 competitions (127 with xG)
Evidence pool
7044 matches across 8 competitions over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League)
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 15 h old · evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:30.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home74.7%under-stated by 6.4 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 72.1%
1x2:draw16.0%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 12.4%
1x2:away9.3%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 6.9%
double_chance:1x90.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x225.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1284.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes49.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no50.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.596.0%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.7%
total_goals:under:0.54.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.583.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.3%
total_goals:under:1.516.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.563.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 62.6%
total_goals:under:2.536.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.541.0%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.4%
total_goals:under:3.559.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.523.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 21.8%
total_goals:under:4.577.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.511.2%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 10.3%
total_goals:under:5.588.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.591.7%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.3%
team_total:home:under:0.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.571.0%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.4%
team_total:home:under:1.529.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.545.3%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.6%
team_total:home:under:2.554.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.523.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.8%
team_total:home:under:3.576.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.553.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 53.1%
team_total:away:under:0.546.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.518.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.6%
team_total:away:under:1.581.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.54.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.1%
team_total:away:under:2.595.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.50.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 0.5%
team_total:away:under:3.599.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.531.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.9%
spread:away:+2.568.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.3%
spread:home:-1.552.7%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.6%
spread:away:+1.547.3%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.7%
spread:home:-0.574.7%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.9%
spread:away:+0.525.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.8%
spread:home:+0.590.7%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.3%
spread:away:-0.59.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.3%
spread:home:+1.597.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 97.1%
spread:away:-1.52.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.1%
spread:home:+2.599.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.50.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home88.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away11.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

2 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.21 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6139586998509044727 · mc-v1:dc+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.44 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Real Madrid win74.7%74.5% ± 0.1−0.16 pts
Draw16.0%16.2% ± 0.1+0.18 pts
Sevilla win9.3%9.3% ± 0.1−0.02 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.21 pts (team_total:away:under:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Real Madrid
46.2% ± 0.2 (exact 46.2%)
Sevilla
8.4% ± 0.1 (exact 8.3%)

Goal difference (Real Madrid minus Sevilla)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.1% ± 0.0
  4. -30.5% ± 0.0
  5. -22.1% ± 0.0
  6. -16.7% ± 0.1
  7. 016.2% ± 0.1
  8. 121.9% ± 0.1
  9. 221.6% ± 0.1
  10. 315.7% ± 0.1
  11. 48.9% ± 0.1
  12. 54.1% ± 0.1
  13. >52.4% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla12.0% ± 0.111.9%
Real Madrid 3–0 Sevilla9.8% ± 0.19.9%
Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla9.2% ± 0.19.4%
Real Madrid 2–1 Sevilla9.2% ± 0.19.2%
Real Madrid 1–1 Sevilla7.5% ± 0.17.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

Real Madrid
mean 2.48 · variance 2.48 · ± 0.005
Sevilla
mean 0.77 · variance 0.78 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · previous headline engine · 216 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 216 settled so far.

Player availability · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Player availability would move real madrid win by −0.7 pts (to 74.0%). Expected goals move −0.06 for Real Madrid and −0.01 for Sevilla.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChangeSimulated ± SE
Real Madrid win74.7%74.0%−0.7 pts73.9% ± 0.1
Draw16.0%16.5%+0.5 pts16.5% ± 0.1
Sevilla win9.3%9.6%+0.2 pts9.5% ± 0.1
Expected goals2.49 – 0.772.43 – 0.76−0.06 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 131 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 6 h before as-of.

Real Madrid

Attack ×0.98 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.8% of goals share out

  • Eder Militao D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mendy D Missing Fixture (Hip Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Rodrygo F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • R. Asencio D Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 1.6% · effect −1.6% REPORTED

Returning: D. HuijsenESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Courtois)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sevilla

Attack ×0.98 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.0% of goals share out

  • Marcao D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Stassin F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 3.0% · effect −3.0% REPORTED
  • I. Munoz D Missing Fixture (Coach's decision) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • N. Guilen M Missing Fixture (Coach's decision) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice O. Vlachodimos)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Fatigue and schedule would move real madrid win by +2.4 pts (to 77.1%). Expected goals move +0.06 for Real Madrid and −0.06 for Sevilla.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChangeSimulated ± SE
Real Madrid win74.7%77.1%+2.4 pts76.8% ± 0.1
Draw16.0%15.0%−1.0 pts15.1% ± 0.1
Sevilla win9.3%8.0%−1.4 pts8.1% ± 0.1
Expected goals2.49 – 0.772.55 – 0.71+0.06 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 131 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 6 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Real Madrid rate ×1.03 band 0.62–1.55

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Sevilla rate ×0.92 band 0.63–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 12/10/2026, 09:30:41

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move real madrid win by +1.7 pts (to 76.4%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Real Madrid and −0.07 for Sevilla.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChangeSimulated ± SE
Real Madrid win74.7%76.4%+1.7 pts76.4% ± 0.1
Draw16.0%15.5%−0.6 pts15.4% ± 0.1
Sevilla win9.3%8.2%−1.2 pts8.2% ± 0.1
Expected goals2.49 – 0.772.49 – 0.70+0.00 / −0.07

Data labels: CONFIRMED 131 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 6 h before as-of.

Real Madrid

Attack ×0.98 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.8% of goals share out

  • Eder Militao D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mendy D Missing Fixture (Hip Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Rodrygo F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • R. Asencio D Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 1.6% · effect −1.6% REPORTED

Returning: D. HuijsenESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Courtois)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sevilla

Attack ×0.98 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · 3.0% of goals share out

  • Marcao D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Stassin F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 3.0% · effect −3.0% REPORTED
  • I. Munoz D Missing Fixture (Coach's decision) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • N. Guilen M Missing Fixture (Coach's decision) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice O. Vlachodimos)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Real Madrid rate ×1.03 band 0.62–1.55

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Sevilla rate ×0.92 band 0.63–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Previous headline engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Real Madrid win74.7%73.7%−1.0 pts
Draw16.0%16.3%+0.3 pts
Sevilla win9.3%10.0%+0.7 pts
Expected goals—2.40 – 0.77−0.08 / −0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 621 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 74.7% · draw 16.0% · away 9.3%
Expected goals
2.49 – 0.77
Real Madrid eligible matches
163 (160 with xG)
Sevilla eligible matches
127 (127 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
12/10/2026, 09:30:41
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Real MadridOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctVillarrealhome1–00.99–0.64W
20 SeptAtletico Madridaway1–20.30–2.35L
15 SeptElcheaway3–23.61–0.78W
12 SeptRayo Vallecanohome4–12.62–1.21W
8 SeptInterhome2–1—W
4 SeptReal Betisaway0–13.46–0.93L
SevillaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptBarcelonahome1–30.40–3.47L
16 SeptDeportivo La Corunaaway1–00.73–0.14W
11 SeptValenciahome1–00.93–0.10W
6 SeptEspanyolaway1–10.53–1.23D
29 AugAtletico Madridhome1–30.90–0.93L
22 AugAthletic Clubaway3–10.41–1.25W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RMASEV-BTTS
49.5%53.0%−3.5 pts0.52 / 0.540.481,043 / 1,060Comparable
seen 13 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Real Madrid to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA
74.7%78.5%−3.8 pts0.78 / 0.790.223,332 / 4Comparable
seen 13 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV
9.3%8.5%+0.8 pts0.08 / 0.090.92778 / 75Comparable
seen 13 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-TIE
16.0%14.0%+2.0 pts0.13 / 0.150.875,230 / 2,131Comparable
seen 13 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA2
52.7%56.5%−3.8 pts0.55 / 0.580.45678 / 673Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA3
31.1%34.5%−3.4 pts0.34 / 0.350.660 / 1,017Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV2
2.6%7.5%−4.9 pts0.01 / 0.140.992 / 1,431Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV3
0.6%——— / 0.20—30 / 0No two-sided Kalshi quote
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-1
96.0%96.0%−0.0 pts0.94 / 0.980.06679 / 15Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-2
83.8%87.5%−3.7 pts0.86 / 0.890.14659 / 1,004Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-3
63.2%70.0%−6.8 pts0.69 / 0.710.31663 / 1,021Comparable
seen 13 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-4
41.0%49.0%−8.0 pts0.47 / 0.510.531,690 / 1,672Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-5
23.0%29.0%−6.0 pts0.27 / 0.310.731,434 / 1,687Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-6
11.2%15.5%−4.3 pts0.14 / 0.170.86679 / 663Comparable
seen 13 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 13/10/2026, 00:41:06.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home76.0%72.7% – 76.5%80.0%1.251074.7%−1.3 pts
1x2:draw14.8%13.6% – 16.0%15.4%6.501016.0%+1.2 pts
1x2:away9.3%8.7% – 11.3%9.9%10.13109.3%+0.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 12/10/2026, 09:41:42 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.2%67.1% – 71.1%73.5%1.36763.2%−5.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.8%28.9% – 32.9%33.3%3.00736.8%+5.0 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 12/10/2026, 09:41:43 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 10.25 · draw 6.30 · home 1.2712/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 10.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2212/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 10.32 · draw 6.56 · home 1.2512/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 7.91 · draw 5.61 · home 1.2312/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 9.50 · draw 5.80 · home 1.2512/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 9.00 · draw 7.00 · home 1.2512/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 10.00 · draw 6.80 · home 1.2412/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 10.70 · draw 6.61 · home 1.3012/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 10.75 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2512/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 10.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2012/10/2026, 09:41:4212/10/2026, 05:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.8812/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.30 · under 2.5 3.2012/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.0912/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2012/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.8812/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 3.0012/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.8012/10/2026, 09:41:4312/10/2026, 05:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 13/10/2026, 00:41:06.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty12/10/2026, 21:54:58 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok12/10/2026, 21:55:00 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 12/10/2026
Season statistics · Real Madridok12/10/2026, 21:55:14 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sevillaok12/10/2026, 21:55:13 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home74.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw16.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away9.3%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x90.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x225.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1284.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes49.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no50.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.583.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.516.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.563.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.536.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.541.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.559.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.523.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.577.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.511.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.588.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.571.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.529.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.545.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.554.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.523.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.576.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.553.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.546.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.518.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.581.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.54.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.595.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.50.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.599.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.531.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.568.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.552.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.547.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.574.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.525.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.597.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.52.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home88.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away11.1%supportednot_evaluated

Core · Snapshot 893 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 13/10/2026, 00:41:06