La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Real BetisvBarcelona

Real Betis

25%

Draw

21%

Barcelona

54%

Got%OnIt gives Barcelona a 54% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.4 goals for Real Betis and 2.1 for Barcelona.
Real Betis won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 a game.
Barcelona won 6 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 4.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Real Betis are 4th of 20 after 7 games; Barcelona are 1st.
Real Betis have won 5 and lost 1; Barcelona have won 8 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Real Betis

W5–2v Osasuna11 Oct
D1–1at Deportivo La Coruna20 Sept
W1–0v Getafe17 Sept
W2–1at Villarreal14 Sept
W1–0v Real Madrid4 Sept
L2–5at Levante29 Aug

Barcelona

W3–0v Getafe10 Oct
W3–1at Sevilla19 Sept
W7–2v Racing Santander16 Sept
W4–2at Levante13 Sept
W5–0at Valencia6 Sept
W5–2v Rayo Vallecano31 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 575, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Barcelona)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Real Betis)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationReal Betis 2.9 d rest (short) · Barcelona 3.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Real Betis

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 4 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Feyenoord +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.9 d before (H FC Porto) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Thu 17 SeptLLH GetafeW 1–0counted as workload
Sun 20 SeptLLA Deportivo La CorunaD 1–1counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLH OsasunaW 5–2counted as workload
Wed 14 OctUCLH FC PortoNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLH Feyenoord+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctLLA Celta Vigo+7.9 d
Wed 28 OctCdRA Navalcarnero+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.4 CONFIRMED

Real Betis: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Isco · regular	M	74	74	—
Marc Roca · regular	M	90	90	—
Fran García	D	90	180	90' Spain, 13.9 d before; 0' Spain, 10.9 d before
Natan · regular	D	90	90	—
Diego Llorente	D	90	90	—
Álvaro Vallés · regular	G	90	90	—
Héctor Bellerín · regular	D	90	90	—
Pablo Fornals · regular	M	81	81	—
Rodrigo Riquelme	M	73	73	—
A. Ezzalzouli	M	90	90	—
C. Hernández · regular	F	81	81	—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 180 minutes — Fran García (90' Spain, 13.9 d before; 0' Spain, 10.9 d before); T. Parrott (90' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Barcelona

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Paris Saint Germain +3.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (A Galatasaray); UEFA Champions League +3.1 d after (A Paris Saint Germain) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLA SevillaW 3–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctLLH GetafeW 3–0counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLA GalatasarayNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLA Paris Saint Germain+3.1 d
Sun 25 OctLLH Real Madrid+8.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 63 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Raphinha (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 7 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.5 CONFIRMED

Barcelona: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
A. Gordon	F	71	71	0' England, 10.9 d before
Gabriel Jesus	F	82	82	—
Lamine Yamal · regular	F	90	214	46' Spain, 13.9 d before; 78' Spain, 10.9 d before
Dani Olmo	M	61	199	67' Spain, 13.9 d before; 71' Spain, 10.9 d before
Eric García · regular	D	90	90	—
J. Koundé	D	90	180	90' France, 11.9 d before
Joan García · regular	G	90	90	—
Gerard Martín · regular	D	90	90	—
X. Espart	D	90	90	—
Rodri	M	71	219	77' Spain, 13.9 d before; 71' Spain, 10.9 d before
Gavi	M	61	61	—

International duty in 14 days: 9 players, 939 minutes — Lamine Yamal (46' Spain, 13.9 d before; 78' Spain, 10.9 d before); Dani Olmo (67' Spain, 13.9 d before; 71' Spain, 10.9 d before); J. Koundé (90' France, 11.9 d before); Rodri (77' Spain, 13.9 d before; 71' Spain, 10.9 d before); Fermín (23' Spain, 13.9 d before; 19' Spain, 10.9 d before); Pau Cubarsí Paredes (90' Spain, 10.9 d before); Pedri (67' Spain, 13.9 d before; 87' Spain, 10.9 d before); D. Livaković (90' Croatia, 10.9 d before); João Cancelo (63' Portugal, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Real Betis	25%	16%	16%
Draw	21%	17%	16%
Barcelona	54%	67%	70%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Barcelona a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (54% vs 70%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Real Betis

Real Betis: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.

W5–2v Osasuna11 Oct · in model evidence
D1–1at Deportivo La Coruna20 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Getafe17 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Villarreal14 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Real Madrid4 Sept · in model evidence
L2–5at Levante29 Aug · in model evidence

Barcelona

Barcelona: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 3.8 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.

W3–0v Getafe10 Oct · in model evidence
W3–1at Sevilla19 Sept · in model evidence
W7–2v Racing Santander16 Sept · in model evidence
W4–2at Levante13 Sept · in model evidence
W5–0at Valencia6 Sept · in model evidence
W5–2v Rayo Vallecano31 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	3%
1 goal	10%
2 goals	18%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	19%
5 goals	13%
6 or more	15%
Over 1.5	87%
Over 2.5	68%
Over 3.5	47%
Both teams score	66%

Real Betis

Expected goals	1.41
Scores at least once	76%
Scores 2 or more	41%
Clean sheet	12%

Barcelona

Expected goals	2.11
Scores at least once	88%
Scores 2 or more	62%
Clean sheet	24%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 1st

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Real Betis

4th of 20 · 16 pts · W5 D1 L1 from 7 games · scored 9, conceded 7

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 0) · Away W2 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games DWWWL (most recent last)

Barcelona

1st of 20 · 24 pts · W8 D0 L0 from 8 games · scored 34, conceded 7

Home W4 D0 L0 (scored 17, conceded 4) · Away W4 D0 L0 (scored 17, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 4 · failed to score 0 in 8 games

Last five league games WWWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Barcelona to win (90 minutes)

54%

70%

YES on Barcelona to WinBarcelona wins in 90 minutes

54%70¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 606 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Real Betis to win (90 minutes)

25%

16%

YES on Real Betis to WinReal Betis wins in 90 minutes

25%16¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,727 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

21%

16%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

21%16¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,240 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawReal Betis or Barcelona wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

79%85¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,797 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Barcelona to WinReal Betis wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

46%31¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 594 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Real Betis to WinBarcelona wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

75%85¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 362 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

97%

98%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

97%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 481 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

3%3¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

87%

91%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

87%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,664 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

13%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,651 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

68%

76%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

68%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 10 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

32%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,035 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

47%

56%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

47%57¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

53%44¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,377 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

28%

38%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

28%39¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,605 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

72%64¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,654 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

15%

22%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

15%23¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,402 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

85%80¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 647 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

66%

67%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

66%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,015 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

34%34¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 371 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Winning margin

Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

32%

48%

Limited evidence

YES on Barcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBarcelona wins by 2 goals or more

32%48¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,555 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Barcelona to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Betis wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 1 goal · Barcelona not by 2+ goals

68%53¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 379 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

31%

Limited evidence

YES on Barcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBarcelona wins by 3 goals or more

16%31¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,377 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Barcelona to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Betis wins or the match is drawn, or Barcelona wins by 2 goals or fewer · Barcelona not by 3+ goals

84%70¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

Real Betis to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

11%

Limited evidence

YES on Real Betis to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Betis wins by 2 goals or more

11%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 648 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Real Betis to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBarcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Real Betis wins by 1 goal · Real Betis not by 2+ goals

89%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,293 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Real Betis to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Real Betis to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Betis wins by 3 goals or more

4%5¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 72 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Real Betis to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBarcelona wins or the match is drawn, or Real Betis wins by 2 goals or fewer · Real Betis not by 3+ goals

96%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 450 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 25.3% · draw 20.9% · away 53.8%
Expected goals: 1.41 – 2.11
Real Betis eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Barcelona eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: none

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
the model's away probability is 16% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's draw probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Real Betis	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Osasuna	home	5–2	2.85–1.57	W
20 Sept	Deportivo La Coruna	away	1–1	0.80–2.09	D
17 Sept	Getafe	home	1–0	1.89–0.29	W
14 Sept	Villarreal	away	2–1	3.52–1.89	W
4 Sept	Real Madrid	home	1–0	0.93–3.46	W
29 Aug	Levante	away	2–5	1.92–2.76	L

Barcelona	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Getafe	home	3–0	1.94–0.14	W
19 Sept	Sevilla	away	3–1	3.47–0.40	W
16 Sept	Racing Santander	home	7–2	6.74–1.98	W
13 Sept	Levante	away	4–2	2.58–2.42	W
6 Sept	Valencia	away	5–0	4.08–0.66	W
31 Aug	Rayo Vallecano	home	5–2	3.04–1.21	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17RBBBAR-BTTS	66.4%	67.0%	−0.6 pts	0.66 / 0.68	0.34	6,015 / 371	Comparable seen 31 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR	53.8%	69.5%	−15.7 pts	0.69 / 0.70	0.31	606 / 594	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Real Betis to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB	25.3%	15.5%	+9.8 pts	0.15 / 0.16	0.85	4,727 / 362	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17RBBBAR-TIE	20.9%	15.5%	+5.4 pts	0.15 / 0.16	0.85	1,240 / 6,797	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Barcelona to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR2	32.3%	47.5%	−15.2 pts	0.47 / 0.48	0.53	2,555 / 379	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Barcelona to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-BAR3	16.1%	30.5%	−14.4 pts	0.30 / 0.31	0.70	2,377 / 0	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Real Betis to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB2	11.0%	6.0%	+5.0 pts	0.05 / 0.07	0.95	648 / 1,293	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Real Betis to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17RBBBAR-RBB3	3.9%	3.0%	+0.9 pts	0.01 / 0.05	0.99	72 / 450	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-1	97.0%	98.0%	−1.0 pts	0.97 / 0.99	0.03	481 / 0	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-2	86.6%	90.5%	−3.9 pts	0.89 / 0.92	0.11	5,664 / 1,651	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-3	68.3%	76.0%	−7.7 pts	0.75 / 0.77	0.25	10 / 1,035	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-4	46.8%	56.5%	−9.7 pts	0.56 / 0.57	0.44	1 / 1,377	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-5	27.8%	37.5%	−9.7 pts	0.36 / 0.39	0.64	2,605 / 1,654	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-6	14.5%	21.5%	−7.0 pts	0.20 / 0.23	0.80	2,402 / 647	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:07.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	15.8%	15.1% – 17.5%	16.7%	6.00	10	25.3%	+9.5 pts
1x2:draw	17.2%	16.5% – 18.2%	18.3%	5.47	10	20.9%	+3.7 pts
1x2:away	67.2%	64.3% – 68.2%	71.7%	1.40	10	53.8%	−13.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:22.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	73.7%	72.2% – 76.9%	80.0%	1.25	6	68.3%	−5.4 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	26.3%	23.1% – 27.8%	28.1%	3.56	6	31.7%	+5.4 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:23.

Every bookmaker page used (16)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.45 · draw 5.30 · home 6.05	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.36 · draw 5.50 · home 6.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.39 · draw 5.68 · home 6.26	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Match winner	away 1.36 · draw 5.03 · home 5.13	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.36 · draw 4.80 · home 5.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.40 · draw 5.75 · home 6.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 1.41 · draw 5.60 · home 6.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.49 · draw 5.44 · home 6.21	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Match winner	away 1.42 · draw 5.60 · home 6.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.36 · draw 5.25 · home 6.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:22	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.25 · under 2.5 3.48	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.20 · under 2.5 4.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.25 · under 2.5 4.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.25 · under 2.5 3.48	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.29 · under 2.5 3.65	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.27 · under 2.5 3.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:50:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:07.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:09 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Real Betis	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:17 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Barcelona	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:13 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	25.3%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	20.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	53.8%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	46.2%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	74.7%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	79.1%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	66.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	33.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	97.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	3.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	86.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	13.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	68.3%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	31.7%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	46.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	53.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	27.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	72.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	14.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	85.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	75.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	24.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	41.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	59.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	16.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	83.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	5.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	94.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	87.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	12.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	62.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	37.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	35.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	64.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	16.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	83.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	3.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	96.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	11.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	89.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	25.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	74.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	46.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	53.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	67.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	32.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	83.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	16.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	32.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	68.0%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 575 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:07