Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT

Nottingham ForestvArsenal

Nottingham Forest
20%
Draw
26%
Arsenal
55%

Got%OnIt gives Arsenal a 55% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 0.8 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.5 for Arsenal.
  • Nottingham Forest won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 a game.
  • Arsenal won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Nottingham Forest are 13th of 20 after 5 games; Arsenal are 2nd.
  • Nottingham Forest have won 1 and lost 2; Arsenal have won 5 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Nottingham Forest

  • L1–3at Crystal Palace11 Oct
  • L0–1v Coventry19 Sept
  • W2–1at Aston Villa12 Sept
  • D0–0v Tottenham5 Sept
  • D2–2at Liverpool29 Aug
  • L0–1v Leeds22 Aug

Arsenal

  • W2–1v Leeds10 Oct
  • L0–3at Brighton19 Sept
  • W2–0at Sunderland12 Sept
  • W2–1v Chelsea6 Sept
  • W1–0at Aston Villa31 Aug
  • W3–0v Coventry21 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 609, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Arsenal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Nottingham Forest)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 10:22 PDT1199 finished Premier League matches (1199 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T15:30:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationNottingham Forest 2 absent regulars · Arsenal 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Nottingham Forest

7.1 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Ipswich +5.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH CoventryL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLA Crystal PalaceL 1–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctPLA Ipswich+5.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Brentford+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: N. Milenkovic (D) — reason unknown; Igor Jesus (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Nottingham Forest: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. DelapF072—
D. MuñozM090—
MurilloD090—
O. DiomandeD090—
O. AinaD083—
M. Sels · regularG090—
N. Williams · regularM018090' Wales, 13.9 d before
M. Gibbs-White · regularM010818' England, 11.9 d before
D. NdoyeM015886' Switzerland, 11.9 d before
J. McAtee · regularM090—
X. SchlagerM015690' Austria, 14 d before

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 284 minutes — N. Williams (90' Wales, 13.9 d before); M. Gibbs-White (18' England, 11.9 d before); D. Ndoye (86' Switzerland, 11.9 d before); X. Schlager (90' Austria, 14 d before) CONFIRMED

Arsenal

4.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Bayern München +3.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League +3.1 d after (A Bayern München) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLA BrightonL 0–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH LeedsW 2–1counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH LilleNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Bayern München+3.1 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Everton+5.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctEFLA Fleetwood Town+9.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 68 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: C. Tzolis (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Arsenal: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
B. White · regularD063—
E. KonsaD090—
D. Rice · regularM090—
M. Ødegaard · regularM018090' Norway, 13.9 d before
David Raya · regularG0900' Spain, 11.9 d before
Gabriel Magalhães · regularD090—
M. Lewis-Skelly · regularM015390' England, 11.9 d before
B. Saka · regularM0900' England, 11.9 d before
N. MaduekeM090—
K. Havertz · regularF063—
R. Calafiori · regularD011634' Italy, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 458 minutes — M. Ødegaard (90' Norway, 13.9 d before); Martín Zubimendi (19' Spain, 11.9 d before); Mikel Merino (45' Spain, 11.9 d before); E. Eze (90' England, 11.9 d before); M. Lewis-Skelly (90' England, 11.9 d before); V. Gyökeres (90' Sweden, 12.9 d before); R. Calafiori (34' Italy, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Nottingham Forest20%17%14%
Draw26%24%24%
Arsenal55%60%62%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Arsenal a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (55% vs 62%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Nottingham Forest

  • Nottingham Forest: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L1–3at Crystal Palace11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Coventry19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Aston Villa12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Tottenham5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Liverpool29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Leeds22 Aug · in model evidence

Arsenal

  • Arsenal: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.7 and conceded 0.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 60%.
  • Both teams scored in 30%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W2–1v Leeds10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Brighton19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Sunderland12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Chelsea6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Aston Villa31 Aug · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Coventry21 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals9%
1 goal22%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more3%
Over 1.568%
Over 2.542%
Over 3.521%
Both teams score44%

Nottingham Forest

Expected goals0.82
Scores at least once56%
Scores 2 or more20%
Clean sheet21%

Arsenal

Expected goals1.55
Scores at least once79%
Scores 2 or more46%
Clean sheet44%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 2nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Nottingham Forest

13th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L2 from 5 games · scored 4, conceded 5

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 0, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L0 (scored 4, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LWDDL (most recent last)

Arsenal

2nd of 20 · 15 pts · W5 D0 L1 from 6 games · scored 10, conceded 5

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 7, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Arsenal to win (90 minutes)
55%
62%
YES on Arsenal to WinArsenal wins in 90 minutes
55%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 13,510 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes)
20%
14%
YES on Nottingham Forest to WinNottingham Forest wins in 90 minutes
20%14¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 511 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
26%
24%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
26%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 22,721 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawNottingham Forest or Arsenal wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
74%77¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 6,410 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Arsenal to WinNottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
45%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,180 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Nottingham Forest to WinArsenal wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
80%87¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 7,152 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
91%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
91%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 736 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
9%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 739 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
68%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
68%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,676 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
32%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 749 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
50%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
42%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,989 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
58%52¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,210 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
21%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,018 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
79%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 748 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 510 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,292 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,241 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,091 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
44%
49%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
44%50¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,176 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
56%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 443 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Winning margin
Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsArsenal wins by 2 goals or more
29%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,650 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Arsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 1 goal · Arsenal not by 2+ goals
71%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 370 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsArsenal wins by 3 goals or more
12%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,236 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Arsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 2 goals or fewer · Arsenal not by 3+ goals
88%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 735 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Nottingham Forest to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Nottingham Forest to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNottingham Forest wins by 2 goals or more
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 907 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Nottingham Forest to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsArsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Nottingham Forest wins by 1 goal · Nottingham Forest not by 2+ goals
94%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 126 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Nottingham Forest to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Nottingham Forest to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNottingham Forest wins by 3 goals or more
1%12¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
NO on Nottingham Forest to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsArsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Nottingham Forest wins by 2 goals or fewer · Nottingham Forest not by 3+ goals
99%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 19.8% · draw 25.6% · away 54.6%
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.55
Nottingham Forest eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Arsenal eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1199 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:59
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
none
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Premier League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 12 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • the model's away probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Nottingham ForestOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctCrystal Palaceaway1–32.95–2.42L
19 SeptCoventryhome0–11.10–0.67L
12 SeptAston Villaaway2–12.28–0.82W
5 SeptTottenhamhome0–00.92–1.06D
29 AugLiverpoolaway2–22.30–1.75D
22 AugLeedshome0–10.66–0.47L
ArsenalOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLeedshome2–12.66–0.74W
19 SeptBrightonaway0–31.63–1.31L
12 SeptSunderlandaway2–01.88–1.80W
6 SeptChelseahome2–12.05–0.39W
31 AugAston Villaaway1–01.04–0.33W
21 AugCoventryhome3–01.88–0.20W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18NFOARS-BTTS
44.1%49.0%−4.9 pts0.48 / 0.500.521,176 / 443Comparable
seen 31 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Arsenal to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS
54.6%61.5%−6.9 pts0.61 / 0.620.3913,510 / 9,180Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Nottingham Forest to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO
19.8%13.5%+6.3 pts0.13 / 0.140.87511 / 7,152Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18NFOARS-TIE
25.6%24.0%+1.6 pts0.23 / 0.250.7722,721 / 6,410Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS2
28.7%36.0%−7.3 pts0.35 / 0.370.651,650 / 370Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS3
11.9%17.0%−5.1 pts0.16 / 0.180.841,236 / 735Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Nottingham Forest to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO2
6.1%5.5%+0.6 pts0.03 / 0.080.97907 / 126Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Nottingham Forest to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-NFO3
1.4%6.5%−5.1 pts0.01 / 0.120.9925 / 300Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-1
90.6%93.0%−2.4 pts0.92 / 0.940.08736 / 739Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-2
68.5%75.0%−6.5 pts0.74 / 0.760.266,676 / 749Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-3
42.2%50.0%−7.8 pts0.48 / 0.520.521,989 / 2,210Comparable
seen 31 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-4
21.5%28.5%−7.0 pts0.27 / 0.300.732,018 / 748Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-5
9.2%12.5%−3.3 pts0.11 / 0.140.89510 / 1,292Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-6
3.4%5.5%−2.1 pts0.04 / 0.070.961,241 / 1,091Comparable
seen 31 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:01.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home16.6%15.3% – 17.7%17.6%5.671019.8%+3.3 pts
1x2:draw24.2%22.2% – 25.3%25.4%3.941025.6%+1.4 pts
1x2:away59.5%57.7% – 61.1%62.9%1.591054.6%−4.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:29.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.549.9%49.5% – 50.0%52.1%1.92842.2%−7.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.550.1%50.0% – 50.5%52.4%1.91857.8%+7.7 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:29.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.62 · draw 3.88 · home 5.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.53 · draw 4.00 · home 6.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.59 · draw 3.76 · home 6.1811/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 1.53 · draw 3.61 · home 5.0311/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 1.62 · draw 3.70 · home 5.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 1.55 · draw 4.20 · home 5.2511/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.59 · draw 4.10 · home 5.6011/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.66 · draw 3.98 · home 6.1111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.60 · draw 4.05 · home 5.6011/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.55 · draw 3.90 · home 5.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.85 · under 2.5 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.97 · under 2.5 1.9711/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.84 · under 2.5 1.8311/10/2026, 09:31:2911/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:01.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:26 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Nottingham Forestok11/10/2026, 01:39:11 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Arsenalok11/10/2026, 01:39:08 (Last checked 19 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home19.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away54.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x45.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x280.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.4%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes44.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no55.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.568.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.531.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.542.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.557.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.521.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.578.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.59.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.590.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.556.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.544.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.519.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.580.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.51.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.599.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.578.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.521.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.545.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.554.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.520.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.579.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.57.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.592.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.51.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.598.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.519.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.580.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.545.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.554.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.571.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.528.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.588.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.511.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home26.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away73.3%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 609 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:01