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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

IntervClub Brugge KV

Inter
74%
Draw
15%
Club Brugge KV
11%

Got%OnIt gives Inter a 74% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.8 goals for Inter and 1.1 for Club Brugge KV.
  • Inter won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 a game.
  • Club Brugge KV won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Inter are 25th of 36 after 1 games; Club Brugge KV are 24th.
  • Inter have won 0 and lost 1; Club Brugge KV have won 0 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Inter

  • W3–0v Parma10 Oct
  • D2–2at AS Roma19 Sept
  • W5–3v Udinese14 Sept
  • L1–2at Real Madrid8 Sept
  • W3–2v Napoli5 Sept
  • W1–0at Cagliari30 Aug

Club Brugge KV

  • L2–3v Aston Villa8 Sept
  • L1–4at Atletico Madrid24 Feb
  • D3–3v Atletico Madrid18 Feb
  • W3–0v Marseille28 Jan
  • W4–1at Kairat Almaty20 Jan
  • L0–3v Arsenal10 Dec

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Inter win74.1%63.6%−10.5 pts
Draw14.8%19.5%+4.7 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%16.9%+5.8 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

3–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.84 and 1.06). Inter 2.84 · Club Brugge KV 1.06 · total 3.90 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Inter–Club Brugge KV)

  1. 2–18.6%
  2. 3–18.2%
  3. 2–08.2%
  4. 3–07.8%
  5. 1–16.2%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9998).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Inter

Expected goals
2.84
Scoring vs average
×1.50
Conceding vs average
×0.80

Club Brugge KV

Expected goals
1.06
Scoring vs average
×0.80
Conceding vs average
×1.50
  • Inter (home): expected to score ×1.50 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.80 the average.
  • Club Brugge KV (away): expected to score ×0.80 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.50 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Inter
153 matches (144 with xG)
Club Brugge KV
35 matches (35 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home74.1%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 42 matches (this competition); conservative 67.0%
1x2:draw14.8%over-stated by 3.5 pts on 125 matches (this competition); conservative 8.1%
1x2:away11.1%over-stated by 1.8 pts on 105 matches (this competition); conservative 6.2%
double_chance:1x88.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x225.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1285.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes61.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no38.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.597.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.52.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.590.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.59.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.574.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.525.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.554.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.545.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.535.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.564.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.519.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.580.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.594.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.55.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.577.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.522.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.554.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.545.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.531.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.568.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.565.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.534.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.528.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.571.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.59.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.590.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.597.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.534.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.565.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.554.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.545.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.574.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.525.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.588.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.511.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.596.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.53.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.599.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.51.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home87.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away13.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.14 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2228019480815889869 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.22 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Inter win74.1%74.2% ± 0.1+0.07 pts
Draw14.8%14.6% ± 0.1−0.24 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%11.2% ± 0.1+0.17 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.14 pts (btts:yes); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Inter
34.9% ± 0.2 (exact 34.8%)
Club Brugge KV
5.9% ± 0.1 (exact 5.8%)

Goal difference (Inter minus Club Brugge KV)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.2% ± 0.0
  4. -30.8% ± 0.0
  5. -22.7% ± 0.1
  6. -17.4% ± 0.1
  7. 014.6% ± 0.1
  8. 120.0% ± 0.1
  9. 220.0% ± 0.1
  10. 315.7% ± 0.1
  11. 410.0% ± 0.1
  12. 55.0% ± 0.1
  13. >53.6% ± 0.1

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Inter 2–1 Club Brugge KV8.5% ± 0.18.6%
Inter 3–1 Club Brugge KV8.2% ± 0.18.2%
Inter 2–0 Club Brugge KV8.1% ± 0.18.2%
Inter 3–0 Club Brugge KV7.9% ± 0.17.8%
Inter 1–1 Club Brugge KV6.1% ± 0.16.2%

Expected goals (simulated)

Inter
mean 2.84 · variance 2.85 · ± 0.005
Club Brugge KV
mean 1.06 · variance 1.06 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move inter win by +2.0 pts (to 76.1%). Expected goals move +0.09 for Inter and −0.03 for Club Brugge KV.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Inter win74.1%76.1%+2.0 pts
Draw14.8%13.7%−1.1 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%10.2%−0.9 pts
Expected goals2.84 – 1.062.93 – 1.02+0.09 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Inter

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • C. Jones M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Stones D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Fiordilino Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Martinez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Club Brugge KV

Attack ×0.97 band 0.95–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 6.3% of goals share out

  • J. Ordonez D Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 6.3% · effect −6.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Mignolet)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move inter win by −0.8 pts (to 73.2%). Expected goals move −0.09 for Inter and −0.01 for Club Brugge KV.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Inter win74.1%73.2%−0.8 pts
Draw14.8%15.1%+0.2 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%11.7%+0.6 pts
Expected goals2.84 – 1.062.76 – 1.04−0.09 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 4 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Inter rate ×0.97 band 0.65–1.62

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12222222222222223 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution 0.033 (-0.062 to 0.154) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Club Brugge KV rate ×0.99 band 0.64–1.45

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution -0.030 (-0.102 to 0.032) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12222222222222223 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move inter win by +1.0 pts (to 75.1%). Expected goals move −0.00 for Inter and −0.05 for Club Brugge KV.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Inter win74.1%75.1%+1.0 pts
Draw14.8%14.3%−0.6 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%10.6%−0.5 pts
Expected goals2.84 – 1.062.84 – 1.01−0.00 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 88 · REPORTED 4 · ESTIMATED 65 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Inter

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

  • C. Jones M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Stones D Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • L. Fiordilino Questionable (Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Martinez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Club Brugge KV

Attack ×0.97 band 0.95–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 6.3% of goals share out

  • J. Ordonez D Missing Fixture (Foot Injury) · share 6.3% · effect −6.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Mignolet)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: 4 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Inter rate ×0.97 band 0.65–1.62

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12222222222222223 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution 0.033 (-0.062 to 0.154) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Club Brugge KV rate ×0.99 band 0.64–1.45

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 4 · contribution -0.030 (-0.102 to 0.032) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12222222222222223 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Inter win74.1%66.2%−7.9 pts
Draw14.8%18.6%+3.8 pts
Club Brugge KV win11.1%15.2%+4.1 pts
Expected goals—2.28 – 1.00−0.56 / −0.05

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 182 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)L. Martinez 42% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Inter

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 97% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Martinez F41.6% ± 0.210.1% ± 0.10.54 ± 0.00263%
M. Thuram F36.2% ± 0.27.4% ± 0.10.45 ± 0.00269%
H. Çalhanoğlu M24.9% ± 0.13.4% ± 0.10.29 ± 0.00247%
F. Esposito F24.2% ± 0.13.3% ± 0.10.28 ± 0.00264%
P. Zielinski M17.2% ± 0.11.6% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00155%
F. Dimarco M16.0% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00170%
Y. Bisseck D12.8% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00175%
A. Diouf M11.8% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00190%

Club Brugge KV

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 94% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
N. Tresoldi F19.6% ± 0.12.0% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00174%
A. Stankovic M13.5% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00178%
C. Forbs M11.4% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00186%
H. Vanaken M9.0% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.001100%
B. Mechele D8.9% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.001100%
R. Vermant F6.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00127%
C. Tzolis M6.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00157%
H. Vetlesen M6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00150%

Run 951 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 446, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Inter)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Club Brugge KV)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationInter 3.1 d rest (short) · Club Brugge KV 4 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Inter

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Bologna +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptSAH UdineseW 5–3counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptSAA AS RomaD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAH ParmaW 3–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctSAA Bologna+3.9 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Shakhtar Donetsk+8 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAH Fiorentina+11.7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79 CONFIRMED

Inter: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. ThuramF6161—
H. MkhitaryanM9090—
H. ÇalhanoğluM6161—
P. Sučić · regularM9016046' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 24' Croatia, 7 d before
Y. Bisseck · regularD9090—
B. PavardD9090—
Josep Martínez · regularG90900' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before
Carlos AugustoD9090—
A. Diouf · regularM731630' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before
F. Dimarco · regularM7373—
F. EspositoF6115762' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 941 minutes — N. Barella (28' Italy, 11 d before; 70' Italy, 8 d before); M. Akanji (90' Switzerland, 10 d before; 90' Switzerland, 7 d before); P. Zieliński (71' Poland, 11 d before; 90' Poland, 8 d before); A. Stanković (0' Serbia, 12 d before; 66' Serbia, 9 d before); A. Bastoni (90' Italy, 11 d before; 90' Italy, 8 d before); P. Sučić (46' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 24' Croatia, 7 d before); A. Diouf (0' France, 11 d before; 90' France, 8 d before); F. Esposito (62' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Club Brugge KV

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Lens +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Lens+8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Tue 8 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 11 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Stankovic (M) — reason unknown; J. Ordonez (D) — reason unknown; C. Tzolis (M) — reason unknown; R. Onyedika (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Club Brugge KV: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
B. Mechele · regularD018090' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before
J. Seys · regularD0900' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before
Lee Han-BeomD00—
F. PottsM00—
K. Sabbe · regularD000' Belgium, 8 d before
J. VirgiliM00—
H. Vanaken · regularM014861' Belgium, 11 d before; 87' Belgium, 8 d before
Y. SommerG00—
H. VetlesenM00—
C. Forbs · regularM00—
N. Tresoldi · regularF00—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 418 minutes — B. Mechele (90' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before); J. Seys (0' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before); H. Vanaken (61' Belgium, 11 d before; 87' Belgium, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Inter

  • C. Jones · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Stones · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • L. Fiordilino · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable

Club Brugge KV

  • J. Ordonez · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Inter74%75%78%
Draw15%16%14%
Club Brugge KV11%9%9%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Inter

  • Inter: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • L1–2at Real Madrid8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Bodo/Glimt24 Feb · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Bodo/Glimt18 Feb · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Borussia Dortmund28 Jan · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Arsenal20 Jan · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Liverpool9 Dec · in model evidence

Club Brugge KV

  • Club Brugge KV: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.7 and conceded 2.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 100%.
  • L2–3v Aston Villa8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at Atletico Madrid24 Feb · in model evidence
  • D3–3v Atletico Madrid18 Feb · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Marseille28 Jan · in model evidence
  • W4–1at Kairat Almaty20 Jan · in model evidence
  • L0–3v Arsenal10 Dec · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals2%
1 goal8%
2 goals16%
3 goals20%
4 goals20%
5 goals15%
6 or more20%
Over 1.590%
Over 2.575%
Over 3.555%
Both teams score62%

Inter

Expected goals2.84
Scores at least once94%
Scores 2 or more78%
Clean sheet35%

Club Brugge KV

Expected goals1.06
Scores at least once65%
Scores 2 or more28%
Clean sheet6%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability4 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

4 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Inter

  • C. JonesOutThigh Injury
  • J. StonesOutInjury
  • L. FiordilinoDoubtfulInjury

Club Brugge KV

  • J. OrdonezOutFoot Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season25th v 24th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Inter

25th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Club Brugge KV

24th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 3

Home W0 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Inter to win74.1%74.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 78¢
Draw14.8%14.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Club Brugge KV to win11.1%11.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Double chance
Inter or draw limited evidence88.9%88.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Club Brugge KV or draw limited evidence25.9%25.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 23¢
Not a draw limited evidence85.2%85.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Draw no bet
Inter to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence87.0%86.8% ± 0.1no
Club Brugge KV to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence13.0%13.2% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence97.8%98.0% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence2.2%2.0% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 4¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence90.2%90.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 87¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence9.8%10.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢
Over 2.5 goals in total74.7%74.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 68¢
Under 2.5 goals in total25.3%25.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 33¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence54.6%54.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 46¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence45.4%45.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence35.1%35.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 27¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence64.9%65.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 75¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence19.9%19.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence80.1%80.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence61.6%61.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence38.4%38.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Team goals
Inter over 0.5 goals limited evidence94.2%94.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Inter under 0.5 goals limited evidence5.8%5.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Inter over 1.5 goals limited evidence77.6%77.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 74¢
Inter under 1.5 goals limited evidence22.4%22.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Inter over 2.5 goals limited evidence54.1%54.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
Inter under 2.5 goals limited evidence45.9%45.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Inter over 3.5 goals limited evidence31.7%31.7% ± 0.1no
Inter under 3.5 goals limited evidence68.3%68.3% ± 0.1no
Club Brugge KV over 0.5 goals limited evidence65.2%65.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
Club Brugge KV under 0.5 goals limited evidence34.8%34.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 47¢
Club Brugge KV over 1.5 goals limited evidence28.5%28.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
Club Brugge KV under 1.5 goals limited evidence71.5%71.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Club Brugge KV over 2.5 goals limited evidence9.1%9.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Club Brugge KV under 2.5 goals limited evidence90.9%90.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Club Brugge KV over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.3%2.3% ± 0.0no
Club Brugge KV under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.7%97.7% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Inter to win by 3 or more limited evidence34.1%34.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 34¢
Inter to win by 2 or more limited evidence54.2%54.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
Inter to win by 1 or more limited evidence74.1%74.2% ± 0.1no
Inter not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence88.9%88.8% ± 0.1no
Inter not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence96.2%96.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 99¢
Inter not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.0%98.9% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Club Brugge KV to win by 3 or more limited evidence1.0%1.1% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 1¢
Club Brugge KV to win by 2 or more limited evidence3.8%3.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 3¢
Club Brugge KV to win by 1 or more limited evidence11.1%11.2% ± 0.1no
Club Brugge KV not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence25.9%25.8% ± 0.1no
Club Brugge KV not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence45.8%45.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Club Brugge KV not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence65.9%65.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 67¢
Clean sheet
Inter clean sheet grid34.8%34.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 47¢
Club Brugge KV clean sheet grid5.8%5.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—14.6% ± 0.1not listed
Inter by exactly 1—20.0% ± 0.1not listed
Inter by exactly 2—20.0% ± 0.1not listed
Inter by exactly 3—15.7% ± 0.1not listed
Inter by exactly 4—10.0% ± 0.1not listed
Inter by exactly 5—5.0% ± 0.1not listed
Club Brugge KV by exactly 1—7.4% ± 0.1not listed
Club Brugge KV by exactly 2—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
Club Brugge KV by exactly 3—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
Club Brugge KV by exactly 4—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Club Brugge KV by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Inter by 6 or more—3.6% ± 0.1not listed
Club Brugge KV by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Inter 2–1 Club Brugge KV—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Inter 3–1 Club Brugge KV—8.2% ± 0.1not listed
Inter 2–0 Club Brugge KV—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Inter 3–0 Club Brugge KV—7.9% ± 0.1not listed
Inter 1–1 Club Brugge KV—6.1% ± 0.1not listed

Inter v Club Brugge KV: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Club Brugge KV to win (90 minutes)
11%
9%
YES on Club Brugge KV to WinClub Brugge KV wins in 90 minutes
11%9¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 217,085 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Inter to win (90 minutes)
74%
78%
YES on Inter to WinInter wins in 90 minutes
74%78¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 130,939 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
15%
14%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
15%14¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 83,775 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawInter or Club Brugge KV wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
85%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,969 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV to WinInter wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
89%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,349 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter to WinClub Brugge KV wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
26%23¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 27,029 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
98%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
98%98¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,352 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
2%4¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,294 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
90%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,253 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
10%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,182 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
75%
68%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
75%68¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,306 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
25%33¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,772 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
55%
46%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
55%46¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,607 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
45%55¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,122 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
35%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
35%27¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,278 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
65%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,508 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
20%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,207 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
80%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,428 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
53%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%53¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 37,236 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%48¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 28 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Winning margin
Club Brugge KV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
2%
Limited evidence
YES on Club Brugge KV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV wins by 2 goals or more
4%3¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,111 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsInter wins or the match is drawn, or Club Brugge KV wins by 1 goal · Club Brugge KV not by 2+ goals
96%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 30,327 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Club Brugge KV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
1%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Club Brugge KV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV wins by 3 goals or more
1%1¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsInter wins or the match is drawn, or Club Brugge KV wins by 2 goals or fewer · Club Brugge KV not by 3+ goals
99%—
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy
Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
54%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsInter wins by 2 goals or more
54%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,452 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 1 goal · Inter not by 2+ goals
46%44¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsInter wins by 3 goals or more
34%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 2 goals or fewer · Inter not by 3+ goals
66%67¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 14,584 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Team goals
Club Brugge KV over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
65%
55%
Limited evidence
YES on Club Brugge KV Over 0.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV scores 1 goal or more
65%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,999 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV Over 0.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV does not score · Club Brugge KV under 0.5 goals
35%47¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 139 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Club Brugge KV over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
28%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Club Brugge KV Over 1.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV scores 2 goals or more
28%21¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 439 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV Over 1.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV scores 1 goal or fewer · Club Brugge KV under 1.5 goals
72%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 139 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Club Brugge KV over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Club Brugge KV Over 2.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV scores 3 goals or more
9%6¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Club Brugge KV Over 2.5 GoalsClub Brugge KV scores 2 goals or fewer · Club Brugge KV under 2.5 goals
91%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,470 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Inter over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter Over 0.5 GoalsInter scores 1 goal or more
94%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter Over 0.5 GoalsInter does not score · Inter under 0.5 goals
6%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Inter over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
74%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter Over 1.5 GoalsInter scores 2 goals or more
78%74¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter Over 1.5 GoalsInter scores 1 goal or fewer · Inter under 1.5 goals
22%27¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 659 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Inter over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
54%
51%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter Over 2.5 GoalsInter scores 3 goals or more
54%52¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Inter Over 2.5 GoalsInter scores 2 goals or fewer · Inter under 2.5 goals
46%51¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 133 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 74.1% · draw 14.8% · away 11.1%
Expected goals
2.84 – 1.06
Inter eligible matches
153 (144 with xG)
Club Brugge KV eligible matches
35 (35 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

InterOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctParmahome3–02.50–0.51W
19 SeptAS Romaaway2–2—D
14 SeptUdinesehome5–3—W
8 SeptReal Madridaway1–2—L
5 SeptNapolihome3–2—W
30 AugCagliariaway1–0—W
Club Brugge KVOpponentVenueScorexGResult
8 SeptAston Villahome2–31.53–3.22L
24 FebAtletico Madridaway1–41.75–2.10L
18 FebAtletico Madridhome3–32.33–2.33D
28 JanMarseillehome3–01.41–1.03W
20 JanKairat Almatyaway4–12.54–0.28W
10 DecArsenalhome0–31.10–2.99L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13INTBRU-BTTS
61.6%52.5%—0.52 / 0.530.4837,236 / 28Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Club Brugge KV to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU
11.1%8.5%+2.6 pts0.08 / 0.090.92217,085 / 4,349Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Inter to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-INT
74.1%77.5%−3.4 pts0.77 / 0.780.23130,939 / 27,029Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13INTBRU-TIE
14.8%13.5%+1.3 pts0.13 / 0.140.8783,775 / 22,969Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Club Brugge KV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU2
3.8%2.0%—0.01 / 0.030.994,111 / 30,327Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Club Brugge KV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU3
1.0%——— / 0.01—0 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13INTBRU-INT2
54.2%56.5%—0.56 / 0.570.4411,452 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13INTBRU-INT3
34.1%33.5%—0.33 / 0.340.670 / 14,584Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Club Brugge KV over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU1
65.2%55.0%—0.53 / 0.570.478,999 / 139Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Club Brugge KV over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU2
28.5%19.0%—0.17 / 0.210.83439 / 139Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Club Brugge KV over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-BRU3
9.1%4.5%—0.03 / 0.060.973 / 3,470Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Inter over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-INT1
94.2%94.0%—0.93 / 0.950.075 / 25Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Inter over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-INT2
77.6%73.5%—0.73 / 0.740.270 / 659Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Inter over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-INT3
54.1%50.5%—0.49 / 0.520.51750 / 133Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-1
97.8%97.0%—0.96 / 0.980.0410,352 / 6,294Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-2
90.2%86.5%—0.86 / 0.870.141,253 / 3,182Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-3
74.7%67.5%—0.67 / 0.680.332,306 / 4,772Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-4
54.6%45.5%—0.45 / 0.460.551,607 / 3,122Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-5
35.1%26.0%—0.25 / 0.270.751,278 / 3,508Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13INTBRU-6
19.9%13.0%—0.12 / 0.140.881,207 / 6,428Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:03.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home75.2%71.8% – 76.4%80.0%1.251074.1%−1.1 pts
1x2:draw16.1%14.7% – 17.1%16.8%5.951014.8%−1.3 pts
1x2:away8.8%7.8% – 11.5%9.2%10.891011.1%+2.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:52 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.564.6%64.3% – 66.7%69.9%1.437——
total_goals:under:2.535.4%33.3% – 35.7%37.0%2.707——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:53 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 10.75 · draw 5.90 · home 1.2811/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 10.79 · draw 6.49 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 7.72 · draw 5.32 · home 1.2411/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 9.50 · draw 5.50 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 12.00 · draw 5.50 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 10.00 · draw 6.40 · home 1.2711/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 11.20 · draw 6.17 · home 1.3111/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 11.25 · draw 5.70 · home 1.2711/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5211/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.8011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.8211/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.43 · under 2.5 2.5811/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.7011/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.42 · under 2.5 2.5911/10/2026, 09:30:5311/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:03.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:54 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Interok11/10/2026, 01:39:34 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Club Brugge KVok11/10/2026, 01:39:37 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home74.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw14.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away11.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x88.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x225.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1285.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.597.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.52.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.590.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.59.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.574.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.525.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.554.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.545.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.535.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.564.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.519.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.580.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.594.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.55.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.577.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.522.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.554.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.545.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.531.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.568.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.565.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.534.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.528.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.571.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.534.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.565.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.554.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.545.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.574.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.525.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.588.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.511.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.596.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.53.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.51.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home87.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away13.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 446 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:03