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UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

ArsenalvLille

Arsenal
75%
Draw
17%
Lille
8%

Got%OnIt gives Arsenal a 75% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.2 goals for Arsenal and 0.5 for Lille.
  • Arsenal won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Lille won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Arsenal are 15th of 36 after 1 games; Lille are 22nd.
  • Arsenal have won 1 and lost 0; Lille have won 0 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

Arsenal

  • W2–1v Leeds10 Oct
  • L0–3at Brighton19 Sept
  • W2–0at Sunderland12 Sept
  • W1–0at Napoli9 Sept
  • W2–1v Chelsea6 Sept
  • W1–0at Aston Villa31 Aug

Lille

  • W1–0v Le Havre10 Oct
  • L1–2at Nice20 Sept
  • W2–0v Estac Troyes13 Sept
  • L2–3v Real Betis8 Sept
  • W1–0at Toulouse3 Sept
  • D2–2v Paris Saint Germain28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Arsenal win75.0%76.8%+1.8 pts
Draw17.4%15.6%−1.8 pts
Lille win7.6%7.6%+0.0 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.17 and 0.54). Arsenal 2.17 · Lille 0.54 · total 2.71 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Arsenal–Lille)

  1. 2–015.7%
  2. 1–014.3%
  3. 3–011.4%
  4. 2–18.4%
  5. 1–18.0%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Arsenal

Expected goals
2.17
Scoring vs average
×1.14
Conceding vs average
×0.41

Lille

Expected goals
0.54
Scoring vs average
×0.41
Conceding vs average
×1.14
  • Arsenal (home): expected to score ×1.14 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.41 the average.
  • Lille (away): expected to score ×0.41 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.14 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Arsenal
159 matches (157 with xG)
Lille
141 matches (139 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home75.0%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 42 matches (this competition); conservative 68.0%
1x2:draw17.4%over-stated by 3.5 pts on 125 matches (this competition); conservative 10.5%
1x2:away7.6%over-stated by 6.6 pts on 35 matches (this competition); conservative 0.0%
double_chance:1x92.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x225.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1282.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes37.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no63.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.56.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.575.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.524.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.550.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.549.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.528.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.571.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.513.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.586.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.55.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.594.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.588.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.511.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.563.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.536.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.537.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.563.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.517.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.582.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.541.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.558.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.510.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.589.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.50.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.599.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.527.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.572.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.550.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.549.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.575.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.525.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.592.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.57.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.598.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.599.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.50.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home90.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away9.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.18 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5903315527737591709 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.21 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Arsenal win75.0%75.1% ± 0.1+0.03 pts
Draw17.4%17.0% ± 0.1−0.37 pts
Lille win7.6%7.9% ± 0.1+0.34 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.18 pts (1x2:home); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Arsenal
58.5% ± 0.2 (exact 58.4%)
Lille
11.5% ± 0.1 (exact 11.4%)

Goal difference (Arsenal minus Lille)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.0% ± 0.0
  4. -30.2% ± 0.0
  5. -21.5% ± 0.0
  6. -16.2% ± 0.1
  7. 017.0% ± 0.1
  8. 124.6% ± 0.1
  9. 222.5% ± 0.1
  10. 315.3% ± 0.1
  11. 47.8% ± 0.1
  12. 53.2% ± 0.1
  13. >51.6% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Arsenal 2–0 Lille15.6% ± 0.115.7%
Arsenal 1–0 Lille14.4% ± 0.114.3%
Arsenal 3–0 Lille11.5% ± 0.111.4%
Arsenal 2–1 Lille8.5% ± 0.18.4%
Arsenal 1–1 Lille7.8% ± 0.18.0%

Expected goals (simulated)

Arsenal
mean 2.17 · variance 2.17 · ± 0.005
Lille
mean 0.54 · variance 0.54 · ± 0.002

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move arsenal win by +1.5 pts (to 76.5%). Expected goals move +0.02 for Arsenal and −0.04 for Lille.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Arsenal win75.0%76.5%+1.5 pts
Draw17.4%16.5%−1.0 pts
Lille win7.6%7.0%−0.6 pts
Expected goals2.17 – 0.542.20 – 0.50+0.02 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 145 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Arsenal

Attack ×1.00 band 0.99–1.00 ESTIMATED · 0.9% of goals share out

  • W. Saliba D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • C. Tzolis M Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: K. Havertz, E. KonsaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Raya)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lille

Attack ×0.93 band 0.90–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 13.9% of goals share out

  • H. Igamane F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 7.8% · effect −7.8% REPORTED
  • E. Mbappe M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
  • T. Santos D Questionable (Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −2.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Ozer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move lille win by +0.3 pts (to 7.9%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Arsenal and −0.01 for Lille.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Arsenal win75.0%74.8%−0.2 pts
Draw17.4%17.3%−0.1 pts
Lille win7.6%7.9%+0.3 pts
Expected goals2.17 – 0.542.14 – 0.53−0.03 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 145 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Arsenal rate ×0.98 band 0.64–1.60

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08989898989898992 · contribution -0.001 (-0.008 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution 0.001 (-0.011 to 0.014) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Lille rate ×0.99 band 0.65–1.60

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution -0.003 (-0.015 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08989898989898992 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move arsenal win by +1.1 pts (to 76.1%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Arsenal and −0.04 for Lille.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Arsenal win75.0%76.1%+1.1 pts
Draw17.4%16.8%−0.6 pts
Lille win7.6%7.1%−0.5 pts
Expected goals2.17 – 0.542.16 – 0.49−0.01 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 145 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Arsenal

Attack ×1.00 band 0.99–1.00 ESTIMATED · 0.9% of goals share out

  • W. Saliba D Missing Fixture (Back Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • C. Tzolis M Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: K. Havertz, E. KonsaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Raya)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lille

Attack ×0.93 band 0.90–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 13.9% of goals share out

  • H. Igamane F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 7.8% · effect −7.8% REPORTED
  • E. Mbappe M Missing Fixture (Red Card) · share 3.7% · effect −3.7% REPORTED
  • T. Santos D Questionable (Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −2.3% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice B. Ozer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Arsenal rate ×0.98 band 0.64–1.60

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08989898989898992 · contribution -0.001 (-0.008 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution 0.001 (-0.011 to 0.014) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.018 (-0.095 to 0.063) CONFIRMED

Lille rate ×0.99 band 0.65–1.60

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.16969696969696968 · contribution -0.003 (-0.015 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.5454545454545454 · contribution -0.007 (-0.074 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08989898989898992 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Arsenal win75.0%76.2%+1.2 pts
Draw17.4%15.8%−1.6 pts
Lille win7.6%8.0%+0.5 pts
Expected goals—2.36 – 0.62+0.18 / +0.08

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 176 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)B. Saka 24% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Arsenal

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
B. Saka F24.0% ± 0.13.2% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.00282%
K. Havertz F20.6% ± 0.12.3% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00277%
V. Gyökeres F19.3% ± 0.12.0% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00124%
M. Odegaard M13.6% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00186%
N. Madueke F11.3% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00141%
E. Eze M9.3% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00124%
D. Rice M8.9% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00182%
Gabriel D7.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.001100%

Lille

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Haraldsson M5.7% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00178%
O. Giroud F5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00145%
A. Ueda F2.8% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00144%
N. Ngoy D2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00178%
B. Andre M2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00057%
D. Bakwa F1.9% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00037%
R. Perraud D1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00091%
Alexsandro D1.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00089%

Run 948 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 443, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Arsenal)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lille)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationArsenal 3.3 d rest (short) · Lille 3.2 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Arsenal

3.3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Nottingham Forest +4.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Tue 15 SeptEFLA IpswichW 4–2counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptPLA BrightonL 0–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH LeedsW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctPLA Nottingham Forest+4.9 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Bayern München+8 d
  • Sat 24 OctPLH Everton+10.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 69 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: C. Tzolis (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 81.9 CONFIRMED

Arsenal: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
B. White · regularD6363—
E. KonsaD9018090' England, 10.1 d before
D. Rice · regularM9090—
M. Ødegaard · regularM9027090' Norway, 12 d before; 90' Norway, 9 d before
David Raya · regularG9018090' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before
Gabriel Magalhães · regularD9090—
M. Lewis-Skelly · regularM6316411' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before
B. Saka · regularM9018090' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before
N. MaduekeM9090—
K. Havertz · regularF6363—
R. Calafiori · regularD8220690' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 11 players, 1143 minutes — J. Timber (78' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before); E. Konsa (90' England, 10.1 d before); M. Ødegaard (90' Norway, 12 d before; 90' Norway, 9 d before); Martín Zubimendi (13' Spain, 10 d before; 19' Spain, 7 d before); Mikel Merino (23' Spain, 10 d before; 45' Spain, 7 d before); E. Eze (20' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before); David Raya (90' Spain, 10 d before; 0' Spain, 7 d before); M. Lewis-Skelly (11' England, 10.1 d before; 90' England, 7 d before); B. Saka (90' England, 10.1 d before; 0' England, 7 d before); V. Gyökeres (90' Sweden, 11 d before; 90' Sweden, 8 d before); R. Calafiori (90' Italy, 11 d before; 34' Italy, 8 d before) CONFIRMED

Lille

3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 H Stade Brestois 29 +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptL1A NiceL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H Le HavreW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctL1H Stade Brestois 29+4 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Galatasaray+7.9 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1A Monaco+11.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: N. Ngoy (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 74.7 CONFIRMED

Lille: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Alexsandro Ribeiro · regularD9090—
M. KjærgaardM9090—
O. GiroudF5757—
N. Bentaleb · regularM9090—
B. Özer · regularG9090—
Tiago Santos · regularD2222—
R. Perraud · regularD7373—
D. BakwaM9090—
N. Mukau · regularM7373—
G. PerrinM5757—
T. NianzouD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 172 minutes — H. Haraldsson (82' Iceland, 10.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Arsenal

  • C. Tzolis · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture
  • W. Saliba · injury / absence: Back Injury · Missing Fixture

Lille

  • E. Mbappe · suspension: Red Card · Missing Fixture
  • H. Igamane · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • T. Santos · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Arsenal75%77%80%
Draw17%16%14%
Lille8%8%7%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Arsenal

  • Arsenal: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 0.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • W1–0at Napoli9 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Paris Saint Germain30 May · not in model evidence
  • W1–0v Atletico Madrid5 May · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Atletico Madrid29 Apr · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Sporting CP15 Apr · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Sporting CP7 Apr · in model evidence

Lille

  • Lille: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.1 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L2–3v Real Betis8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Borussia Dortmund12 Mar · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Borussia Dortmund4 Mar · in model evidence
  • W6–1v Feyenoord29 Jan · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Liverpool21 Jan · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Sturm Graz11 Dec · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Both teams score37%

Arsenal

Expected goals2.17
Scores at least once89%
Scores 2 or more64%
Clean sheet58%

Lille

Expected goals0.54
Scores at least once42%
Scores 2 or more10%
Clean sheet11%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability5 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

5 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Arsenal

  • C. TzolisOutHamstring Injury
  • W. SalibaOutBack Injury

Lille

  • E. MbappeOutRed Card
  • H. IgamaneOutKnee Injury
  • T. SantosDoubtfulInjury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season15th v 22nd

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Arsenal

15th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 0

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 1, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Lille

22nd of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 3

Home W0 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Arsenal to win75.0%75.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 80¢
Draw17.4%17.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Lille to win7.6%7.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Double chance
Arsenal or draw limited evidence92.4%92.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Lille or draw limited evidence25.0%24.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 21¢
Not a draw limited evidence82.6%83.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Draw no bet
Arsenal to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence90.8%90.5% ± 0.1no
Lille to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence9.2%9.5% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.1%93.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.9%6.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence75.5%75.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 83¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence24.5%24.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 18¢
Over 2.5 goals in total50.9%50.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 61¢
Under 2.5 goals in total49.1%49.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence28.8%28.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 38¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence71.2%71.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 63¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence13.8%13.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 21¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence86.2%86.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 81¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence5.7%5.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence94.3%94.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence37.0%36.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 44¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence63.0%63.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 58¢
Team goals
Arsenal over 0.5 goals limited evidence88.6%88.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 93¢
Arsenal under 0.5 goals limited evidence11.4%11.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Arsenal over 1.5 goals limited evidence63.9%63.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 73¢
Arsenal under 1.5 goals limited evidence36.1%36.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 29¢
Arsenal over 2.5 goals limited evidence37.0%37.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 47¢
Arsenal under 2.5 goals limited evidence63.0%63.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 56¢
Arsenal over 3.5 goals limited evidence17.5%17.5% ± 0.1no
Arsenal under 3.5 goals limited evidence82.5%82.5% ± 0.1no
Lille over 0.5 goals limited evidence41.6%41.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Lille under 0.5 goals limited evidence58.4%58.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Lille over 1.5 goals limited evidence10.2%10.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Lille under 1.5 goals limited evidence89.8%89.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Lille over 2.5 goals limited evidence1.7%1.8% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Lille under 2.5 goals limited evidence98.3%98.2% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Lille over 3.5 goals limited evidence0.2%0.2% ± 0.0no
Lille under 3.5 goals limited evidence99.8%99.8% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Arsenal to win by 3 or more limited evidence27.7%27.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 34¢
Arsenal to win by 2 or more limited evidence50.5%50.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 56¢
Arsenal to win by 1 or more limited evidence75.0%75.1% ± 0.1no
Arsenal not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence92.4%92.1% ± 0.1no
Arsenal not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence98.3%98.3% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Arsenal not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.7%99.8% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask
Lille to win by 3 or more limited evidence0.3%0.2% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 2¢
Lille to win by 2 or more limited evidence1.7%1.7% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 2¢
Lille to win by 1 or more limited evidence7.6%7.9% ± 0.1no
Lille not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence25.0%24.9% ± 0.1no
Lille not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence49.5%49.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Lille not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence72.3%72.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 67¢
Clean sheet
Arsenal clean sheet grid58.4%58.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Lille clean sheet grid11.4%11.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—17.0% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal by exactly 1—24.6% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal by exactly 2—22.5% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal by exactly 3—15.3% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal by exactly 4—7.8% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal by exactly 5—3.2% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 1—6.2% ± 0.1not listed
Lille by exactly 2—1.5% ± 0.0not listed
Lille by exactly 3—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Lille by exactly 4—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Lille by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Arsenal by 6 or more—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
Lille by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Arsenal 2–0 Lille—15.6% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal 1–0 Lille—14.4% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal 3–0 Lille—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal 2–1 Lille—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Arsenal 1–1 Lille—7.8% ± 0.1not listed

Arsenal v Lille: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Arsenal to win (90 minutes)
75%
80%
YES on Arsenal to WinArsenal wins in 90 minutes
75%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 122,004 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lille to win (90 minutes)
8%
7%
YES on Lille to WinLille wins in 90 minutes
8%7¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 26,978 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
17%
14%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
17%14¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 119,584 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawArsenal or Lille wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
83%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,899 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille to WinArsenal wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
92%94¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,589 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal to WinLille wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
25%21¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 20,312 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,088 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,964 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
76%
83%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
76%83¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 620 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
24%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,216 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
61%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
51%61¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,018 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
49%40¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,089 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
29%38¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,612 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
71%63¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,147 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
20%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%21¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,171 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%81¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,888 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%10¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,210 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,432 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
37%
43%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
37%44¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,175 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
63%58¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,201 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsArsenal wins by 2 goals or more
51%56¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,006 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 1 goal · Arsenal not by 2+ goals
49%45¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,415 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
28%
34%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsArsenal wins by 3 goals or more
28%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,427 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 2 goals or fewer · Arsenal not by 3+ goals
72%67¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
2%
Limited evidence
YES on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLille wins by 2 goals or more
2%2¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,300 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsArsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 1 goal · Lille not by 2+ goals
98%99¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,595 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
0%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLille wins by 3 goals or more
0%2¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,709 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsArsenal wins or the match is drawn, or Lille wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lille not by 3+ goals
100%—
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy
Team goals
Arsenal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
89%
92%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal Over 0.5 GoalsArsenal scores 1 goal or more
89%93¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal Over 0.5 GoalsArsenal does not score · Arsenal under 0.5 goals
11%9¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 23 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Arsenal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
64%
72%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal Over 1.5 GoalsArsenal scores 2 goals or more
64%73¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 299 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal Over 1.5 GoalsArsenal scores 1 goal or fewer · Arsenal under 1.5 goals
36%29¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Arsenal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
46%
Limited evidence
YES on Arsenal Over 2.5 GoalsArsenal scores 3 goals or more
37%47¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,000 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Arsenal Over 2.5 GoalsArsenal scores 2 goals or fewer · Arsenal under 2.5 goals
63%56¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Lille over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Lille Over 0.5 GoalsLille scores 1 goal or more
42%48¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille Over 0.5 GoalsLille does not score · Lille under 0.5 goals
58%55¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 175 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Lille over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Lille Over 1.5 GoalsLille scores 2 goals or more
10%16¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,594 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille Over 1.5 GoalsLille scores 1 goal or fewer · Lille under 1.5 goals
90%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 179 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Lille over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
—
Limited evidence · No Kalshi quote
YES on Lille Over 2.5 GoalsLille scores 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 225 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Lille Over 2.5 GoalsLille scores 2 goals or fewer · Lille under 2.5 goals
98%—
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 75.0% · draw 17.4% · away 7.6%
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.54
Arsenal eligible matches
159 (157 with xG)
Lille eligible matches
141 (139 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

ArsenalOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLeedshome2–12.66–0.74W
19 SeptBrightonaway0–31.63–1.31L
12 SeptSunderlandaway2–01.88–1.80W
9 SeptNapoliaway1–0—W
6 SeptChelseahome2–12.05–0.39W
31 AugAston Villaaway1–01.04–0.33W
LilleOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctLe Havrehome1–01.35–1.34W
20 SeptNiceaway1–21.58–1.50L
13 SeptEstac Troyeshome2–01.65–0.38W
8 SeptReal Betishome2–30.83–1.80L
3 SeptToulouseaway1–01.21–3.46W
28 AugParis Saint Germainhome2–21.27–1.44D

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13ARSLIL-BTTS
37.0%43.0%—0.42 / 0.440.587,175 / 6,201Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Arsenal to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS
75.0%79.5%−4.5 pts0.79 / 0.800.21122,004 / 20,312Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lille to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL
7.6%6.5%+1.1 pts0.06 / 0.070.9426,978 / 22,589Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT13ARSLIL-TIE
17.4%13.5%+3.9 pts0.13 / 0.140.87119,584 / 22,899Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS2
50.5%55.5%—0.55 / 0.560.452,006 / 9,415Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Arsenal to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS3
27.7%33.5%—0.33 / 0.340.675,427 / 363Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL2
1.7%1.5%—0.01 / 0.020.991,300 / 7,595Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL3
0.3%——— / 0.02—3,709 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Arsenal over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS1
88.6%92.0%—0.91 / 0.930.095 / 23Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Arsenal over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS2
63.9%72.0%—0.71 / 0.730.29299 / 125Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Arsenal over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-ARS3
37.0%45.5%—0.44 / 0.470.568,000 / 1Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL1
41.6%46.5%—0.45 / 0.480.550 / 175Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL2
10.2%14.0%—0.12 / 0.160.881,594 / 179Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lille over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-LIL3
1.7%——— / 0.05—225 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-1
93.1%96.0%—0.95 / 0.970.056,088 / 5,964Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-2
75.5%82.5%—0.82 / 0.830.18620 / 3,216Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-3
50.9%60.5%—0.60 / 0.610.402,018 / 10,089Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-4
28.8%37.5%—0.37 / 0.380.631,612 / 6,147Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-5
13.8%20.0%—0.19 / 0.210.811,171 / 4,888Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13ARSLIL-6
5.7%9.0%—0.08 / 0.100.921,210 / 15,432Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:07.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home76.6%73.2% – 78.0%80.3%1.251075.0%−1.5 pts
1x2:draw15.8%14.6% – 16.9%16.7%6.001017.4%+1.6 pts
1x2:away7.9%7.1% – 10.1%8.3%12.00107.6%−0.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:50 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.0%58.9% – 60.9%63.7%1.577——
total_goals:under:2.540.0%39.1% – 41.1%42.0%2.387——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:51 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 13.25 · draw 5.75 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairMatch winneraway 13.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleMatch winneraway 11.84 · draw 6.50 · home 1.2411/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBOMatch winneraway 8.87 · draw 5.32 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
William HillMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 5.50 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Match winneraway 12.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
DafabetMatch winneraway 12.00 · draw 6.40 · home 1.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetMatch winneraway 13.90 · draw 6.03 · home 1.2911/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoMatch winneraway 11.00 · draw 5.90 · home 1.2611/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorMatch winneraway 12.00 · draw 6.00 · home 1.2211/10/2026, 09:30:5011/10/2026, 05:30:20
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.2411/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.55 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:30:5111/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:07.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:53 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Arsenalok11/10/2026, 01:39:26 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Lilleok11/10/2026, 01:39:27 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home75.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw17.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away7.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x92.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x225.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1282.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes37.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no63.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.575.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.524.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.550.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.549.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.528.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.571.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.513.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.586.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.588.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.511.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.563.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.536.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.537.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.563.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.517.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.582.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.541.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.558.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.510.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.589.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.50.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.599.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.527.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.572.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.550.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.549.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.575.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.525.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.592.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.57.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.598.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.51.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.599.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.50.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home90.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away9.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 443 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:07