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UEFA Champions League·Tue 20 Oct, 12:00 PDT

AS RomavSlovan Bratislava

AS Roma
86%
Draw
9%
Slovan Bratislava
4%

Got%OnIt gives AS Roma a 86% chance of winning. That is roughly 9 chances in 10.

Worth knowing: We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 3.3 goals for AS Roma and 0.7 for Slovan Bratislava.
  • AS Roma won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a game.
  • Slovan Bratislava won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • We don't have an injury report for this match, so absences are unknown.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • AS Roma are 17th of 36 after 1 games; Slovan Bratislava are 35th.
  • AS Roma have won 0 and lost 0; Slovan Bratislava have won 0 and lost 1.
Recent matches the model used

AS Roma

  • D0–0at Como11 Oct
  • D2–2v Inter19 Sept
  • W2–0at Torino14 Sept
  • D1–1at Fenerbahçe10 Sept
  • W2–1v Atalanta5 Sept
  • W4–0at Lecce31 Aug

Slovan Bratislava

  • L1–6at Paris Saint Germain9 Sept
  • W1–0v BK Hacken18 Dec
  • L0–2at Shkendija11 Dec
  • W2–1v Rayo Vallecano27 Nov
  • L1–3at KuPS6 Nov
  • L0–1at AZ Alkmaar23 Oct

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
AS Roma win86.3%73.0%−13.3 pts
Draw9.3%15.3%+6.0 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%11.7%+7.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

3–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 3.32 and 0.69). AS Roma 3.32 · Slovan Bratislava 0.69 · total 4.01 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (AS Roma–Slovan Bratislava)

  1. 3–011.0%
  2. 2–010.0%
  3. 4–09.1%
  4. 3–17.7%
  5. 2–16.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9993).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

AS Roma

Expected goals
3.32
Scoring vs average
×1.75
Conceding vs average
×0.53

Slovan Bratislava

Expected goals
0.69
Scoring vs average
×0.53
Conceding vs average
×1.75
  • AS Roma (home): expected to score ×1.75 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.53 the average.
  • Slovan Bratislava (away): expected to score ×0.53 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.75 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

AS Roma
157 matches (152 with xG)
Slovan Bratislava
23 matches (22 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 44)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home86.3%over-stated by 2.0 pts on 58 matches (this competition); conservative 79.8%
1x2:draw9.3%over-stated by 4.4 pts on 500 matches (this competition); conservative 3.6%
1x2:away4.4%over-stated by 6.6 pts on 35 matches (this competition); conservative 0.0%
double_chance:1x95.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x213.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1290.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes48.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.598.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.51.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.591.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.59.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.576.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.523.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.556.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.543.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.537.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.562.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.521.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.578.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.596.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.53.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.584.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.515.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.564.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.535.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.542.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.557.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.550.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.550.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.515.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.584.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.53.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.596.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.550.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.549.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.570.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.529.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.586.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.513.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.595.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.54.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home95.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away4.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.22 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 4608250029307730931 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.17 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
AS Roma win86.3%86.4% ± 0.1+0.11 pts
Draw9.3%9.1% ± 0.1−0.24 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%4.5% ± 0.1+0.13 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.22 pts (total_goals:over:4.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

AS Roma
49.9% ± 0.2 (exact 50.0%)
Slovan Bratislava
3.7% ± 0.1 (exact 3.6%)

Goal difference (AS Roma minus Slovan Bratislava)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.0% ± 0.0
  3. -40.0% ± 0.0
  4. -30.2% ± 0.0
  5. -20.9% ± 0.0
  6. -13.4% ± 0.1
  7. 09.1% ± 0.1
  8. 116.3% ± 0.1
  9. 220.1% ± 0.1
  10. 318.9% ± 0.1
  11. 414.3% ± 0.1
  12. 58.9% ± 0.1
  13. >58.0% ± 0.1

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
AS Roma 3–0 Slovan Bratislava10.9% ± 0.111.0%
AS Roma 2–0 Slovan Bratislava10.0% ± 0.110.0%
AS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava9.1% ± 0.19.1%
AS Roma 3–1 Slovan Bratislava7.5% ± 0.17.7%
AS Roma 2–1 Slovan Bratislava6.9% ± 0.16.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

AS Roma
mean 3.32 · variance 3.32 · ± 0.006
Slovan Bratislava
mean 0.70 · variance 0.70 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move as roma win by +0.2 pts (to 86.5%). Expected goals move −0.05 for AS Roma and −0.03 for Slovan Bratislava.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win86.3%86.5%+0.2 pts
Draw9.3%9.1%−0.2 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%4.3%−0.0 pts
Expected goals3.32 – 0.693.27 – 0.66−0.05 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 91 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

AS Roma

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 2.8% of goals share out

  • M. Svilar G Missing Fixture (Toe Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • B. Cristante M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 2.8% · effect −2.8% REPORTED
  • K. Koulierakis D Missing Fixture (Knock) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Bah M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: flagged — first choice reported outESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Slovan Bratislava

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.6% of goals share out

  • M. Kukharevych F Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 7.3% · effect −7.2% REPORTED
  • A. Griger Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Kianga F Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 7.3% · effect −7.3% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Takac)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move as roma win by −0.8 pts (to 85.5%). Expected goals move −0.10 for AS Roma and −0.00 for Slovan Bratislava.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win86.3%85.5%−0.8 pts
Draw9.3%9.7%+0.4 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%4.8%+0.4 pts
Expected goals3.32 – 0.693.22 – 0.69−0.10 / −0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 91 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 3 matches in the last 14 days
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

AS Roma rate ×0.97 band 0.64–1.45

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Slovan Bratislava rate ×1.00 band 0.67–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move as roma win by −0.7 pts (to 85.6%). Expected goals move −0.15 for AS Roma and −0.03 for Slovan Bratislava.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win86.3%85.6%−0.7 pts
Draw9.3%9.7%+0.4 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%4.7%+0.3 pts
Expected goals3.32 – 0.693.17 – 0.66−0.15 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 91 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

AS Roma

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 2.8% of goals share out

  • M. Svilar G Missing Fixture (Toe Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • B. Cristante M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 2.8% · effect −2.8% REPORTED
  • K. Koulierakis D Missing Fixture (Knock) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Bah M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: flagged — first choice reported outESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Slovan Bratislava

Attack ×0.93 band 0.89–0.96 ESTIMATED · 14.6% of goals share out

  • M. Kukharevych F Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 7.3% · effect −7.2% REPORTED
  • A. Griger Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Kianga F Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 7.3% · effect −7.3% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Takac)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 3 matches in the last 14 days
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

AS Roma rate ×0.97 band 0.64–1.45

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution 0.013 (-0.040 to 0.038) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Slovan Bratislava rate ×1.00 band 0.67–1.55

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value 1 · contribution -0.021 (-0.065 to 0.047) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
AS Roma win86.3%73.4%−12.9 pts
Draw9.3%15.3%+5.9 pts
Slovan Bratislava win4.4%11.3%+7.0 pts
Expected goals—2.69 – 0.99−0.63 / +0.29

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 378 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 09:30:10.

Player scoring (simulation)D. Malen 65% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

AS Roma

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Malen F64.7% ± 0.228.1% ± 0.11.04 ± 0.003100%
M. Hermoso D20.6% ± 0.12.2% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.002100%
G. Mancini D18.3% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.001100%
M. Soule F16.4% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00159%
M. Kone M15.3% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00177%
Wesley Franca M14.4% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00181%
E. Ndicka D12.6% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00156%
L. Pellegrini M12.4% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00122%

Slovan Bratislava

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. Camara F15.7% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00166%
A. Yirajang M8.5% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00122%
A. Sporar F6.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00149%
C. Martinez M5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00171%
C. Blackman M4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00194%
R. Cerepkai F3.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00114%
N. Marcelli M2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00012%

Run 1014 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 509, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (AS Roma)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Slovan Bratislava)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-20T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknowninjury reporttime unknownnot collected for this match
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAS Roma 3.0 d rest (short) · Slovan Bratislava 6 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

AS Roma

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 3 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Napoli +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 11 OctSAA ComoD 0–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLH Real MadridNScounted as scheduled workload
  • Sat 17 OctSAH GenoaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAA Napoli+3.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAH Cagliari+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctSAA Udinese+10.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 53 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: B. Cristante (M) — reason unknown; M. Svilar (G) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

AS Roma: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Ndicka · regularD090—
Wesley · regularM090—
P. GolliniG090—
N. MolinaM082—
M. de RoonM090—
M. Koné · regularM089—
Hermoso · regularD060—
G. Mancini · regularD090—
P. Dybala · regularM089—
L. PellegriniM045—
D. Malen · regularF090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Slovan Bratislava

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 1 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Wed 14 OctUCLH VfB StuttgartNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

No match stored in the next 14 days.

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Slovan Bratislava: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
P. Pokorny · regularM00—
T. BarseghyanM00—
S. MarkovicD00—
C. MartinezM00—
C. Blackman · regularD00—
D. Takac · regularG00—
R. Ibrahim—00—
S. Cruz · regularD00—
K. Bajric · regularD00—
A. SporarF00—
S. CamaraM00—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

No injury report has been observed for this match; absences are unknown, not zero.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
AS Roma86%—77%
Draw9%—14%
Slovan Bratislava4%—9%
No bookmaker prices collected for this match.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives AS Roma a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (86% vs 77%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence1 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

AS Roma

  • AS Roma: 1 finished match (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 0%.
  • D1–1at Fenerbahçe10 Sept · in model evidence

Slovan Bratislava

  • Slovan Bratislava: 10 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 30%.
  • L1–6at Paris Saint Germain9 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Celje26 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D1–1v Celje19 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W2–0v Mjallby AIF11 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W2–1at Mjallby AIF4 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D1–1v FC Iberia 199929 Jul · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals2%
1 goal7%
2 goals15%
3 goals19%
4 goals20%
5 goals16%
6 or more22%
Over 1.591%
Over 2.576%
Over 3.557%
Both teams score48%

AS Roma

Expected goals3.32
Scores at least once96%
Scores 2 or more84%
Clean sheet50%

Slovan Bratislava

Expected goals0.69
Scores at least once50%
Scores 2 or more15%
Clean sheet4%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynot available

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

We haven't collected an injury report for this match yet.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season17th v 35th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

AS Roma

17th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Slovan Bratislava

35th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 6

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 7 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets3 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 6 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
AS Roma to win86.3%86.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 80¢
Draw9.3%9.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Slovan Bratislava to win4.4%4.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Double chance
AS Roma or draw limited evidence95.6%95.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Slovan Bratislava or draw limited evidence13.7%13.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Not a draw limited evidence90.7%90.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Draw no bet
AS Roma to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence95.2%95.1% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence4.8%4.9% ± 0.1no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence98.1%98.2% ± 0.0no
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence1.9%1.8% ± 0.0no
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence91.0%90.9% ± 0.1no
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence9.0%9.1% ± 0.1no
Over 2.5 goals in total76.3%76.3% ± 0.1no
Under 2.5 goals in total23.7%23.7% ± 0.1no
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence56.8%56.9% ± 0.2no
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence43.2%43.1% ± 0.2no
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence37.3%37.5% ± 0.2no
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence62.7%62.5% ± 0.2no
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence21.6%21.7% ± 0.1no
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence78.4%78.3% ± 0.1no
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence48.3%48.2% ± 0.2no
At least one team fails to score limited evidence51.7%51.8% ± 0.2no
Team goals
AS Roma over 0.5 goals limited evidence96.4%96.3% ± 0.1no
AS Roma under 0.5 goals limited evidence3.6%3.7% ± 0.1no
AS Roma over 1.5 goals limited evidence84.3%84.3% ± 0.1no
AS Roma under 1.5 goals limited evidence15.7%15.7% ± 0.1no
AS Roma over 2.5 goals limited evidence64.4%64.3% ± 0.2no
AS Roma under 2.5 goals limited evidence35.6%35.7% ± 0.2no
AS Roma over 3.5 goals limited evidence42.3%42.5% ± 0.2no
AS Roma under 3.5 goals limited evidence57.7%57.5% ± 0.2no
Slovan Bratislava over 0.5 goals limited evidence50.0%50.1% ± 0.2no
Slovan Bratislava under 0.5 goals limited evidence50.0%49.9% ± 0.2no
Slovan Bratislava over 1.5 goals limited evidence15.4%15.5% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava under 1.5 goals limited evidence84.6%84.5% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava over 2.5 goals limited evidence3.3%3.3% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava under 2.5 goals limited evidence96.7%96.7% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava over 3.5 goals limited evidence—0.6% ± 0.0no
Slovan Bratislava under 3.5 goals limited evidence—99.4% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
AS Roma to win by 3 or more limited evidence50.1%50.0% ± 0.2no
AS Roma to win by 2 or more limited evidence70.3%70.2% ± 0.1no
AS Roma to win by 1 or more limited evidence86.3%86.4% ± 0.1no
AS Roma not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence95.6%95.5% ± 0.1no
AS Roma not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence—98.9% ± 0.0no
AS Roma not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence—99.8% ± 0.0no
Slovan Bratislava to win by 3 or more limited evidence—0.2% ± 0.0no
Slovan Bratislava to win by 2 or more limited evidence—1.1% ± 0.0no
Slovan Bratislava to win by 1 or more limited evidence4.4%4.5% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence13.7%13.6% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence29.7%29.8% ± 0.1no
Slovan Bratislava not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence49.9%50.0% ± 0.2no
Clean sheet
AS Roma clean sheet grid50.0%49.9% ± 0.2no
Slovan Bratislava clean sheet grid3.6%3.7% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—9.1% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 1—16.3% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 2—20.1% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 3—18.9% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 4—14.3% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 5—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Slovan Bratislava by exactly 1—3.4% ± 0.1not listed
Slovan Bratislava by exactly 2—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Slovan Bratislava by exactly 3—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Slovan Bratislava by exactly 4—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Slovan Bratislava by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
AS Roma by 6 or more—8.0% ± 0.1not listed
Slovan Bratislava by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
AS Roma 3–0 Slovan Bratislava—10.9% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 2–0 Slovan Bratislava—10.0% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava—9.1% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 3–1 Slovan Bratislava—7.5% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 2–1 Slovan Bratislava—6.9% ± 0.1not listed

AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
AS Roma to win (90 minutes)
86%
77%
YES on AS Roma to WinAS Roma wins in 90 minutes
86%80¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 15 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes)
4%
9%
YES on Slovan Bratislava to WinSlovan Bratislava wins in 90 minutes
4%12¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 80 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
9%
14%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
9%20¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 66 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawAS Roma or Slovan Bratislava wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
91%92¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Slovan Bratislava to WinAS Roma wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
96%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 589 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on AS Roma to WinSlovan Bratislava wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
14%27¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 18 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 86.3% · draw 9.3% · away 4.4%
Expected goals
3.32 – 0.69
AS Roma eligible matches
157 (152 with xG)
Slovan Bratislava eligible matches
23 (22 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

AS RomaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctComoaway0–01.12–1.49D
19 SeptInterhome2–2—D
14 SeptTorinoaway2–01.85–0.86W
10 SeptFenerbahçeaway1–1—D
5 SeptAtalantahome2–1—W
31 AugLecceaway4–03.27–0.80W
Slovan BratislavaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 SeptParis Saint Germainaway1–6—L
18 DecBK Hackenhome1–01.85–0.95W
11 DecShkendijaaway0–20.22–1.36L
27 NovRayo Vallecanohome2–10.97–1.97W
6 NovKuPSaway1–30.96–1.08L
23 OctAZ Alkmaaraway0–10.17–3.34L

Kalshi contracts and the model

3 contracts across 2 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
AS Roma to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-ROM
86.3%76.5%+9.8 pts0.73 / 0.800.2715 / 18Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Slovan Bratislava to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-SLO
4.4%8.5%−4.1 pts0.05 / 0.120.9580 / 589Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT20ROMSLO-TIE
9.3%14.0%−4.7 pts0.08 / 0.200.9266 / 88Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:13.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
86.3%—
1x2:draw————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
9.3%—
1x2:away————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
4.4%—

No pages observed.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
——
total_goals:under:2.5————0
only 0 bookmaker(s) quote the complete set (minimum 3)
——

No pages observed. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:13.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesnot_observed—
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · AS Romaok11/10/2026, 01:39:34 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Slovan Bratislavaok11/10/2026, 01:39:41 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home86.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw9.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away4.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x95.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x213.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1290.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes48.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no51.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.598.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.51.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.576.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.523.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.556.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.543.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.537.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.562.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.596.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.53.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.584.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.515.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.564.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.535.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.542.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.557.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.550.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.550.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.515.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.584.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.53.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.596.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.550.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.549.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.570.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.529.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.586.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.513.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5—unsupported_tail_massnot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home95.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away4.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 509 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:13