Got%OnIt

Profit Lab

45 of 1912 positions

Build finds combinations. Lab evaluates individual market contracts. Each row prices one side of one Kalshi contract as if $5.00 were spent on it at the current ask, and sets that against Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate.

Rows are ordered by edge after calibration: the model’s conservative chance minus the break-even chance after the fee, in points. Dollar figures are shown but never used to rank, because a dollar return grows with 1 ÷ price and would put cheap long shots first whatever the evidence. A positive figure means the model sees potential value before model error, liquidity and price movement are accounted for. Nothing on this page is a recommendation or a guaranteed profit; every dollar figure is hypothetical. Only individual contracts are quoted on Kalshi — never a five-leg combination — so a Build set cannot be bought as one price.

How to use Lab
  1. Compare the prices. “Got%OnIt chance” is what the model thinks will happen; “Kalshi price” is what one contract costs now; “Break-even chance” is how often the side would need to win to cover that price and the estimated fee.
  2. Review the evidence. “Evaluated market” means the market type has been tested out of sample; “Model-supported, not evaluated” has retrospective support only; “Limited evidence” is shown for research. Open “Review match” for the match-level evidence.
  3. Understand the uncertainty. The model has over-stated some positions in the past (the calibration gap); the “Conservative estimate” subtracts that documented gap. Positions picked because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than stated (the selection effect, shown as “Selected-leg record”). On every fair comparison so far the market has been at least as accurate as the model.
  4. Track on paper. “Track on paper” saves the row’s figures at this instant. Nothing is placed and no money moves.
  5. Check the result later. Paper positions settle after the match under Records → Paper positions.

Closest candidates — not validated edges

45 positions pass every criterion below. On every timestamped comparison so far the market has been at least as accurate as the model, so these are a paper-trading watch-list, never a trade list.

  • Got%OnIt chance at least 70%
  • conservative probability above the fee-inclusive break-even (edge in points > 0)
  • quote fresh: recent and on an open, active market
  • quote quality: bid/ask spread at most 15¢ and a book between 90% and 110%
  • resting contracts at the ask cover the stake
  • evidence depth ok: no thin-history or cold-start flag on the snapshot
  • market evaluated or model-supported (never limited evidence)
  • not refused by Build's competition policy

Risk concentration. Matches: Atalanta v Venezia (6), Levante v Sevilla (5), Angers v Marseille (3), AS Roma v Genoa (3), Bologna v Inter (3), Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (3), …. Clubs appearing most: Venezia (9), Atalanta (8), Levante (5), Sevilla (5), Angers (3), Arsenal (3), …. Several positions on one match or one club rise and fall together. Show the full table.

Shown
45
Aligned (all criteria)
45
Positive estimated return
45
Also positive after calibration gap
45
Stake per position
$5.00
Selected-leg record
48.3% won vs 59.5% stated (29 settled)

How often legs chosen because the model disagreed with the market actually won, against what the model stated for them.

Reset
  1. Sporting CPvLask LinzUEFA Champions League · Wed 21 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESSporting CP to WinWins if: Sporting CP wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    58¢
    8 contracts for $4.64 + $0.14 fee
    Break-even chance
    59.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +8.8 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 59.8%
    Kelly fraction
    21.8%
    Estimated return
    +$1.26 on $4.78
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.70 on $4.78

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts11 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±6.6 points on 42 matches · price 18 min old · 1.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 19 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 57%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) · KXUCLGAME-26OCT21SPOASK-SPO · YES
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 525, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.4 points on 42 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (6.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.14 on 8 contracts at 58¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.58 · bid 0.56 · mid (side) 57.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:19 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/experiments/phase8a-champions-league/2026-10-08-ucl-compatibility/head-to-head.json calibration_full_seasons.challenger.bins (Phase 8A, 500 Champions League decision-season matches, 2026-10-08) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range of Champions League matches (Phase 8A cohort)
  2. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    63¢
    7 contracts for $4.41 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    64.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.3 points
    conservative 72% vs break-even 64.7%
    Kelly fraction
    20.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.55 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.51 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 52.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 62%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI2 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 63¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.63 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:18 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  3. Borussia Mönchengladbachv1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NO1899 Hoffenheim to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Borussia Mönchengladbach wins or the match is drawn, or 1899 Hoffenheim wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +7.2 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.46 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.43 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts5,007 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 834.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    1899 Hoffenheim to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT18BMGTSG-TSG2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 497, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  4. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOAS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Genoa wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.9 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    25.0% (capped)
    Estimated return
    +$0.38 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.35 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts688 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 114.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17ROMGEN-ROM3 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  5. StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sat 17 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +5.4 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    17.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.48 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.38 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts383 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.4 points on 962 matches · price 18 min old · 54.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17RCSPSG-5 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 475, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  6. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or AC Milan wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.7 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    19.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.28 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts638 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 106.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  7. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOAthletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Valencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    22.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.30 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts8,367 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 1394.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.76 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  8. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.4 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    14.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.43 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.31 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,718 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 245.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-4 · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.65 · mid (side) 66.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  9. Real BetisvBarcelonaLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    73%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.3 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    12.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.52 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.30 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,654 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 18 min old · 236.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 73%, 11 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 63%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17RBBBAR-5 · NO
    Model
    73% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 479, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.61 · mid (side) 62.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:37 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  10. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 1.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 1 goal or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    82%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +4.2 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    17.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.25 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts2,632 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 438.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 82%, 9 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    82% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.9 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 73.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  11. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESLevante Over 0.5 GoalsWins if: Levante scores 1 goal or more
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    74¢
    6 contracts for $4.44 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    75.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 79% vs break-even 75.5%
    Kelly fraction
    15.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $4.53
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.23 on $4.53

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts3,727 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 621.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 73%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Levante over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-LEV1 · YES
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 74¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.74 · bid 0.72 · mid (side) 73.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  12. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOArsenal to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Nottingham Forest wins or the match is drawn, or Arsenal wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    65¢
    7 contracts for $4.55 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    66.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.9 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 66.7%
    Kelly fraction
    11.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.67
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.27 on $4.67

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 52.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Arsenal to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18NFOARS-ARS2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 65¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.65 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  13. BrightonvCrystal PalacePremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOBrighton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Crystal Palace wins or the match is drawn, or Brighton wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.4 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    21.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.20 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts697 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 116.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Brighton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BRICRY-BRI3 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 487, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:18 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  14. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to WinWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    72%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.2 points
    conservative 71% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.31 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts50,491 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.3 points on 1,209 matches · price 18 min old · 7213.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,209 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 72%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win (90 minutes) · KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV · NO
    Model
    72% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.6 points on 1,209 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.64 · mid (side) 65.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  15. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    YESAtalanta to WinWins if: Atalanta wins in 90 minutes
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    64¢
    7 contracts for $4.48 + $0.12 fee
    Break-even chance
    65.7%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.1 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 65.7%
    Kelly fraction
    9.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.40 on $4.60
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.22 on $4.60

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts49,776 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.6 points on 294 matches · price 18 min old · 7110.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 64%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atalanta to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-ATA · YES
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 6.4 points on 294 matches (the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.12 on 7 contracts at 64¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.64 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 63.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.7–0.8 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  16. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +3.0 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    11.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.21 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.18 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts371 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 61.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-2 · YES
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.71 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  17. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    68¢
    7 contracts for $4.76 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    69.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.9 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 69.6%
    Kelly fraction
    9.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.33 on $4.87
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.21 on $4.87

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts2,539 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 362.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 67%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-4 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 68¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.68 · bid 0.66 · mid (side) 67.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  18. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.8 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    11.1%
    Estimated return
    +$0.28 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.17 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts748 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 124.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 8 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-4 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  19. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOInter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Bologna wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    71%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.7 points
    conservative 70% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    8.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.19 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,120 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 160.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 71%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT2 · NO
    Model
    71% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  20. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    88%
    Kalshi price
    84¢
    5 contracts for $4.20 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    85.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.3 points
    conservative 87% vs break-even 85.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.16 on $4.25
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.25

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts501 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 100.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 88%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 83%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-5 · NO
    Model
    88% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 84¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.84 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  21. AS RomavGenoaSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    85¢
    5 contracts for $4.25 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    86.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +2.2 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 86.0%
    Kelly fraction
    15.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.16 on $4.30
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.30

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts718 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 143.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 84%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17ROMGEN-5 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 482, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 85¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.85 · bid 0.82 · mid (side) 83.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  22. Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundBundesliga · Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    83%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.9 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    8.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.26 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts217 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.2 points on 954 matches · price 18 min old · 36.2× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 954 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 83%, 7 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17UNIBVB-5 · NO
    Model
    83% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 466, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 954 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.75 · mid (side) 76.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 16:52 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  23. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOJuventus to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    74%
    Kalshi price
    70¢
    7 contracts for $4.90 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    71.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 71.6%
    Kelly fraction
    5.6%
    Estimated return
    +$0.15 on $5.01
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.11 on $5.01

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts9,329 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 1332.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 74%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 69%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV2 · NO
    Model
    74% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 70¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.7 · bid 0.67 · mid (side) 68.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  24. AC MilanvAtalantaSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOAC Milan to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or AC Milan wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    93%
    Kalshi price
    90¢
    5 contracts for $4.50 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    90.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 92% vs break-even 90.8%
    Kelly fraction
    17.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.54
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.54

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,114 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 222.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 93%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 89%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    AC Milan to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18ACMATA-ACM3 · NO
    Model
    93% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 498, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 90¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.9 · bid 0.88 · mid (side) 89.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  25. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia Over 2.5 GoalsWins if: Venezia scores 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    96%
    Kalshi price
    93¢
    5 contracts for $4.65 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    93.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.6 points
    conservative 95% vs break-even 93.6%
    Kelly fraction
    24.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.68
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.68

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,410 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 282.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 96%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN3 · NO
    Model
    96% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 93¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.93 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 92.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  26. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAngers to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn, or Angers wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    13.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.08 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts25 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 5.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG2 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 1.4 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  27. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia to WinWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.4 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    10.8%
    Estimated return
    +$0.12 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts53,316 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.9 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 10663.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.9 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches of this competition
  28. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    YESOver 1.5 GoalsWins if: 2 goals or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    78%
    Kalshi price
    75¢
    6 contracts for $4.50 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    76.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.2 points
    conservative 77% vs break-even 76.3%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.10 on $4.58
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.58

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts538 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 89.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 78%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 74%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-2 · YES
    Model
    78% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 2.1 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 75¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.75 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  29. ValenciavAthletic ClubLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    80%
    Kalshi price
    76¢
    6 contracts for $4.56 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    77.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 77.3%
    Kelly fraction
    4.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.17 on $4.64
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.64

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts2,645 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 440.9× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 80%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 75%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-4 · NO
    Model
    80% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 483, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 76¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.76 · bid 0.73 · mid (side) 74.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  30. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    NOSevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Levante wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    89%
    Kalshi price
    86¢
    5 contracts for $4.30 + $0.05 fee
    Break-even chance
    87.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +1.1 points
    conservative 88% vs break-even 87.0%
    Kelly fraction
    8.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.35
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.06 on $4.35

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts18,828 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 3765.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 89%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 86%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT12LEVSEV-SEV2 · NO
    Model
    89% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.05 on 5 contracts at 86¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.86 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 85.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:19 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  31. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    70%
    Kalshi price
    66¢
    7 contracts for $4.62 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    67.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 69% vs break-even 67.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.19 on $4.73
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.07 on $4.73

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,365 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 195.0× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 70%, 6 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 65%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-4 · NO
    Model
    70% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 66¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.66 · bid 0.63 · mid (side) 64.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 12:38 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  32. EspanyolvAtletico MadridLa Liga · Sat 17 Oct, 05:00 PDT
    NOAtletico Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Espanyol wins or the match is drawn, or Atletico Madrid wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    75%
    Kalshi price
    72¢
    6 contracts for $4.32 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    73.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.9 points
    conservative 74% vs break-even 73.5%
    Kelly fraction
    3.2%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $4.41
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.41

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts730 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 121.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 75%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Atletico Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17ESPATM-ATM2 · NO
    Model
    75% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 464, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 72¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.72 · bid 0.69 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  33. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    85%
    Kalshi price
    82¢
    6 contracts for $4.92 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    83.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.8 points
    conservative 84% vs break-even 83.2%
    Kelly fraction
    4.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.11 on $4.99
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $4.99

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts607 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 962 matches · price 18 min old · 101.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 962 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 85%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 81%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18ANGOLM-5 · NO
    Model
    85% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.8 points on 962 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 82¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.82 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  34. AngersvMarseilleLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOAngers to WinWins if: Marseille wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    76%
    Kalshi price
    71¢
    7 contracts for $4.97 + $0.11 fee
    Break-even chance
    72.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 73% vs break-even 72.6%
    Kelly fraction
    2.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.23 on $5.08
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.05 on $5.08

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,713 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.5 points on 294 matches · price 18 min old · 244.6× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 76%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 71%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Angers to win (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18ANGOLM-ANG · NO
    Model
    76% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 489, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 3.9 points on 294 matches (the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.11 on 7 contracts at 71¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.71 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 70.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 21:41 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.2–0.3 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  35. EvertonvChelseaPremier League · Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT
    NOChelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Everton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    79¢
    6 contracts for $4.74 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    80.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.7 points
    conservative 81% vs break-even 80.2%
    Kelly fraction
    3.5%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.81
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.04 on $4.81

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts7,184 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.5 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 1197.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC2 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 463, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 79¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.79 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 78.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  36. LevantevSevillaLa Liga · Mon 12 Oct, 12:00 PDT
    YESOver 0.5 GoalsWins if: 1 goal or more in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    94%
    Kalshi price
    92¢
    5 contracts for $4.60 + $0.03 fee
    Break-even chance
    92.6%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.6 points
    conservative 93% vs break-even 92.6%
    Kelly fraction
    8.7%
    Estimated return
    +$0.05 on $4.63
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.63

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts17,109 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.3 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 3421.7× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 94%, 2 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 92%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT12LEVSEV-1 · YES
    Model
    94% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 440, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.5 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.3 points)
    Fee
    $0.03 on 5 contracts at 92¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.92 · bid 0.91 · mid (side) 91.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  37. FiorentinavComoSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    3.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts692 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 115.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18FIOCOM-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 490, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.81 · mid (side) 82.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  38. BolognavInterSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    86%
    Kalshi price
    83¢
    6 contracts for $4.98 + $0.06 fee
    Break-even chance
    84.0%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 85% vs break-even 84.0%
    Kelly fraction
    3.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.09 on $5.04
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $5.04

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,171 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.0 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 195.1× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 86%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 82%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-5 · NO
    Model
    86% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 476, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.0 points)
    Fee
    $0.06 on 6 contracts at 83¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.83 · bid 0.8 · mid (side) 81.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:24 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  39. Nottingham ForestvArsenalPremier League · Sun 18 Oct, 08:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    91%
    Kalshi price
    89¢
    5 contracts for $4.45 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    89.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.5 points
    conservative 90% vs break-even 89.8%
    Kelly fraction
    5.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.07 on $4.49
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.03 on $4.49

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,292 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.8 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 258.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 91%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 88%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18NFOARS-5 · NO
    Model
    91% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 496, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.7 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.8 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 89¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.89 · bid 0.86 · mid (side) 87.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 17:10 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  40. Le HavrevAuxerreLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOOver 3.5 GoalsWins if: 3 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    77%
    Kalshi price
    73¢
    6 contracts for $4.38 + $0.09 fee
    Break-even chance
    74.5%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.4 points
    conservative 75% vs break-even 74.5%
    Kelly fraction
    1.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.47
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.47

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts6,369 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 1061.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 77%, 5 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 72%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18HACAUX-4 · NO
    Model
    77% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 493, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was over-stated by 1.2 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.6 points)
    Fee
    $0.09 on 6 contracts at 73¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.73 · bid 0.7 · mid (side) 71.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 19:32 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  41. JuventusvLazioSerie A · Sun 18 Oct, 11:45 PDT
    NOJuventus to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWins if: Lazio wins or the match is drawn, or Juventus wins by 2 goals or fewer
    Got%OnIt chance
    90%
    Kalshi price
    88¢
    5 contracts for $4.40 + $0.04 fee
    Break-even chance
    88.8%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 89% vs break-even 88.8%
    Kelly fraction
    3.0%
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.44
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.44

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts1,467 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.4 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 293.4× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 90%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 87%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Juventus to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18JUVLAZ-JUV3 · NO
    Model
    90% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 501, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.6 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.4 points)
    Fee
    $0.04 on 5 contracts at 88¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.88 · bid 0.85 · mid (side) 86.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  42. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOVenezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Atalanta wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    97%
    Kalshi price
    96¢
    5 contracts for $4.80 + $0.02 fee
    Break-even chance
    96.4%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.3 points
    conservative 97% vs break-even 96.4%
    Kelly fraction
    8.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.03 on $4.82
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.02 on $4.82

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts44,529 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencehigh · calibration ±0.2 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 8905.8× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 97%, 1 point above the Kalshi mid-price of 96%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12ATAVEN-VEN2 · NO
    Model
    97% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.2 points)
    Fee
    $0.02 on 5 contracts at 96¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.96 · bid 0.95 · mid (side) 95.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
  43. AtalantavVeneziaSerie A · Mon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDT
    NOOver 4.5 GoalsWins if: 4 goals or fewer in total
    Got%OnIt chance
    81%
    Kalshi price
    78¢
    6 contracts for $4.68 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    79.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.2 points
    conservative 80% vs break-even 79.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.9%
    Estimated return
    +$0.08 on $4.76
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.01 on $4.76

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts3,717 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±1.1 points on 1,190 matches · price 18 min old · 619.5× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 1,190 matches (matches of this competition); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 81%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 78%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12ATAVEN-5 · NO
    Model
    81% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 437, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.2 points on 1,190 matches (matches of this competition of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (1.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 78¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.78 · bid 0.77 · mid (side) 77.5% · spread 1¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/audit-results/a2-quantitative-audit-2026-10-12/tails.out (A2 audit, the same leak-free retrospective cohort, 2026-10-12) — matches of this competition
  44. VeneziavNapoliSerie A · Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT
    NOVenezia to WinWins if: Napoli wins or the match is drawn
    Got%OnIt chance
    84%
    Kalshi price
    81¢
    6 contracts for $4.86 + $0.07 fee
    Break-even chance
    82.2%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 82% vs break-even 82.2%
    Kelly fraction
    0.4%
    Estimated return
    +$0.13 on $4.93
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $4.93

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityEvaluated market · Build-eligible
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts2,672 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±2.1 points on 294 matches · price 18 min old · 445.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 84%, 4 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 80%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Venezia to win (90 minutes) · KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN · NO
    Model
    84% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 465, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 5.5 points on 294 matches (the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (2.1 points)
    Fee
    $0.07 on 6 contracts at 81¢ (quadratic_with_maker_fees, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    eligible
    Quote
    ask 0.81 · bid 0.79 · mid (side) 80.0% · spread 2¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — the 0.1–0.2 predicted range (pooled; n taken as the smallest range cohort, 294)
  45. LorientvMonacoLigue 1 · Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT
    NOMonaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWins if: Lorient wins or the match is drawn, or Monaco wins by 1 goal
    Got%OnIt chance
    79%
    Kalshi price
    77¢
    6 contracts for $4.62 + $0.08 fee
    Break-even chance
    78.3%
    Edge after calibration
    +0.1 points
    conservative 78% vs break-even 78.3%
    Kelly fraction
    0.3%
    Estimated return
    +$0.04 on $4.70
    a column, not the ranking; before model error
    Conservative estimate
    +$0.00 on $4.70

    Model above break-even, also after the documented calibration gap

    • ReliabilityModel-supported, not evaluated · Experimental in Build (market not evaluated)
    • FreshnessPrice updated 18 min ago
    • Available contracts8 resting (covers the stake)
    • Confidencemedium · calibration ±0.6 points on 5,505 matches · price 18 min old · 1.3× the contracts resting
    • Historycalibration: 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions)); forward sample 0 settled · aligned

    Got%OnIt puts this at 79%, 3 points above the Kalshi mid-price of 76%. A disagreement is not a proven edge.Review match →

    Saves these figures (price, fee, chance, instant) to check later under Records → Paper positions. Nothing is placed.
    Technical details
    Contract
    Monaco to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) · KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM2 · NO
    Model
    79% frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2, snapshot 494, digest 28167ddf46eebcfb); finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries
    Calibration
    this position was under-stated by 0.3 points on 5,505 matches (matches (five competitions) of the leak-free retrospective cohort); the conservative figure subtracts the over-statement (never credits an under-statement) and one standard error (0.5 points)
    Fee
    $0.08 on 6 contracts at 77¢ (quadratic, rate 7.0 %); published schedule not verified against fills
    Build
    experimental (maturity not evaluated)
    Quote
    ask 0.77 · bid 0.74 · mid (side) 75.5% · spread 3¢ · book 100% · gate ok · observed Sun 11 Oct, 22:50 · open
    Formulas
    Break-even = (contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts · Estimated return = contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (cost + fee) · Conservative = the same at the chance minus the documented over-statement and one standard error · Edge = (conservative chance − break-even) × 100 · Kelly = (p·b − q) ÷ b at the break-even price, capped at 25 %.
    Calibration source
    research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11) — matches (five competitions)
Definitions and formulas
Got%OnIt chance
the frozen model probability of the side, made from finished results only — no prices, line-ups or injuries.
Kalshi price
the side’s own executable ask in cents per contract (NO at the NO ask = 1 − YES bid), never a mid-price; the mid-price is used only for the disagreement sentence.
Available contracts
the whole contracts the stake buys at the ask (stake ÷ ask, rounded down); the resting figure is the size at the best level when the price was observed.
Break-even chance
(contracts × ask + fee) ÷ contracts.
Estimated return
contracts × Got%OnIt chance − (contracts × ask + fee): a hypothetical research figure under the frozen model probability.
Conservative estimate
the same figure at the Got%OnIt chance minus the documented over-statement of this kind of position and one standard error (A1 audit; Phase 8A for the Champions League); markets without a documented measurement carry none.
Edge after calibration
conservative chance − break-even chance, in percentage points. The default order. Scale-free: a 5-point gap counts the same at 5¢ and at 95¢, where the dollar figure would differ twenty-fold. Rows without a conservative chance read “limited” and sort last.
Kelly fraction
(p·b − q) ÷ b with p the conservative chance, q = 1 − p and b the net odds at the break-even price after the fee; zero at break-even, capped at 25 %. A sizing reference, not advice.
Quote quality gate
the same rule as Build and the Matches leaders: bid/ask spread at most 15¢ and the outcome set’s mid-prices forming a book between 90% and 110%. A row that fails it is never actionable.
Aligned
every criterion at once: Got%OnIt chance at least 70%; conservative probability above the fee-inclusive break-even (edge in points > 0); quote fresh: recent and on an open, active market; quote quality: bid/ask spread at most 15¢ and a book between 90% and 110%; resting contracts at the ask cover the stake; evidence depth ok: no thin-history or cold-start flag on the snapshot; market evaluated or model-supported (never limited evidence); not refused by Build's competition policy.
Fees
Kalshi's published general schedule: fees = round up to the cent of 0.07 x contracts x price x (1 - price) on a trade that takes liquidity (0.0175 for resting orders where the series charges maker fees). Retrieved from public descriptions of the schedule on 2026-10-11; never reconciled with a real fill because none exists. Verify at kalshi.com/fee-schedule before relying on it.
Calibration source
research/A1-MODEL-ACCURACY-LEGACY-COMPARISON-AUDIT.md §5.1, §6 (retrospective cohort, 5,505 matches, 2026-10-11)

1,912 sides of 956 contracts on upcoming matches · 1621 with figures. A positive expected net is the model disagreeing with the market after fees; on every timestamped comparison available the market has been at least as accurate as the model (A1 §7), so none of these figures is a validated edge. Positions selected because the model disagrees with the market have so far won less often than their stated probability (selection effect; Records keeps the running figure); the sample is too small to size, so it is a caution, not a subtraction. Prices and sizes are the best resting level at observation time; depth beyond it and price movement before an order are not modelled. Nothing is placed by this application; a paper position records a hypothetical trade at these figures for later evaluation. Data as of 23:08.