Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Premier League·Sun 18 Oct, 06:00 PDT

BournemouthvSunderland

Bournemouth
50%
Draw
25%
Sunderland
25%

Got%OnIt gives Bournemouth a 50% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.6 goals for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Sunderland.
  • Bournemouth won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • Sunderland won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bournemouth are 17th of 20 after 6 games; Sunderland are 16th.
  • Bournemouth have won 0 and lost 3; Sunderland have won 1 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Bournemouth

  • L1–5at Chelsea10 Oct
  • L0–1v Liverpool20 Sept
  • W2–1at Real Sociedad17 Sept
  • D2–2v Brentford12 Sept
  • D2–2at Newcastle5 Sept
  • D1–1v Everton29 Aug

Sunderland

  • L0–2v Brighton10 Oct
  • L3–5at Manchester City20 Sept
  • W1–0v AZ Alkmaar16 Sept
  • L0–2v Arsenal12 Sept
  • D1–1at Brentford5 Sept
  • W1–0v Fulham30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Bournemouth win50.4%48.8%−1.6 pts
Draw25.1%25.4%+0.3 pts
Sunderland win24.5%25.8%+1.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.65 and 1.08). Bournemouth 1.65 · Sunderland 1.08 · total 2.72 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Bournemouth–Sunderland)

  1. 1–111.9%
  2. 1–010.5%
  3. 2–19.6%
  4. 2–08.9%
  5. 0–06.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Bournemouth

Expected goals
1.65
Scoring vs average
×1.07
Conceding vs average
×0.85

Sunderland

Expected goals
1.08
Scoring vs average
×0.85
Conceding vs average
×1.07
  • Bournemouth (home): expected to score ×1.07 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.85 the average.
  • Sunderland (away): expected to score ×0.85 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.07 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Bournemouth
121 matches (120 with xG)
Sunderland
45 matches (45 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home50.4%over-stated by 1.5 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 47.4%
1x2:draw25.1%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.6%
1x2:away24.5%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 22.9%
double_chance:1x75.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x249.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1274.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes53.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no46.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.8%
total_goals:under:0.56.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.575.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.3%
total_goals:under:1.524.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.551.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.5%
total_goals:under:2.548.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.529.1%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.5%
total_goals:under:3.570.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.514.1%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 12.4%
total_goals:under:4.585.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.55.9%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 3.6%
total_goals:under:5.594.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.580.7%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.2%
team_total:home:under:0.519.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.549.0%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.3%
team_total:home:under:1.551.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.522.9%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.3%
team_total:home:under:2.577.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.58.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.6%
team_total:home:under:3.591.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.565.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.3%
team_total:away:under:0.534.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.529.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.6%
team_total:away:under:1.570.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.59.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.1%
team_total:away:under:2.590.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.0%
team_total:away:under:3.597.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.511.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.5%
spread:away:+2.588.5%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.1%
spread:home:-1.527.0%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 25.0%
spread:away:+1.573.0%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.4%
spread:home:-0.550.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.5%
spread:away:+0.549.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.0%
spread:home:+0.575.5%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.9%
spread:away:-0.524.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.4%
spread:home:+1.590.6%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.3%
spread:away:-1.59.4%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.7%
spread:home:+2.597.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home67.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away32.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.24 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 2229432318778182524 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.16 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Bournemouth win50.4%50.5% ± 0.2+0.13 pts
Draw25.1%24.5% ± 0.1−0.58 pts
Sunderland win24.5%25.0% ± 0.1+0.46 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.24 pts (spread:home:-1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Bournemouth
34.0% ± 0.1 (exact 34.1%)
Sunderland
19.5% ± 0.1 (exact 19.3%)

Goal difference (Bournemouth minus Sunderland)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.5% ± 0.0
  4. -32.1% ± 0.0
  5. -26.7% ± 0.1
  6. -115.5% ± 0.1
  7. 024.5% ± 0.1
  8. 123.7% ± 0.1
  9. 215.3% ± 0.1
  10. 37.5% ± 0.1
  11. 42.7% ± 0.1
  12. 50.9% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland11.6% ± 0.111.9%
Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland10.8% ± 0.110.5%
Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland9.7% ± 0.19.6%
Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland8.9% ± 0.18.9%
Bournemouth 0–1 Sunderland7.1% ± 0.16.8%

Expected goals (simulated)

Bournemouth
mean 1.64 · variance 1.64 · ± 0.004
Sunderland
mean 1.08 · variance 1.08 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 24.5%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Bournemouth and +0.00 for Sunderland.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bournemouth win50.4%50.7%+0.3 pts
Draw25.1%24.5%−0.6 pts
Sunderland win24.5%24.8%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.65 – 1.081.65 – 1.08+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 34 h before as-of.

Bournemouth

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: J. Kluivert, D. Brooks, A. ScottESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Petrovic)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sunderland

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: B. Brobbey, D. BallardESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Roefs)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move sunderland win by +0.8 pts (to 25.3%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Bournemouth and −0.01 for Sunderland.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bournemouth win50.4%49.7%−0.6 pts
Draw25.1%24.9%−0.2 pts
Sunderland win24.5%25.3%+0.8 pts
Expected goals1.65 – 1.081.60 – 1.07−0.05 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 34 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bournemouth rate ×0.97 band 0.64–1.51

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Sunderland rate ×0.99 band 0.65–1.56

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move sunderland win by +0.8 pts (to 25.3%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Bournemouth and −0.01 for Sunderland.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Bournemouth win50.4%49.7%−0.6 pts
Draw25.1%24.9%−0.2 pts
Sunderland win24.5%25.3%+0.8 pts
Expected goals1.65 – 1.081.60 – 1.07−0.05 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 114 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 34 h before as-of.

Bournemouth

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: J. Kluivert, D. Brooks, A. ScottESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Petrovic)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Sunderland

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: B. Brobbey, D. BallardESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice R. Roefs)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bournemouth rate ×0.97 band 0.64–1.51

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Sunderland rate ×0.99 band 0.65–1.56

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Bournemouth win50.4%50.6%+0.3 pts
Draw25.1%24.5%−0.6 pts
Sunderland win24.5%24.9%+0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.64 – 1.07−0.00 / −0.00

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 589 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)M. Tavernier 26% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Bournemouth

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 69% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
M. Tavernier M25.9% ± 0.13.7% ± 0.10.30 ± 0.00291%
Rayan M19.8% ± 0.12.0% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00191%
Evanilson F15.2% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00191%
A. Scott M9.5% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00165%
R. Christie M9.4% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00150%
J. Kluivert F6.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00153%
T. Adams M3.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00180%
A. Truffert D3.1% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00191%

Sunderland

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 87% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
E. Le Fee M22.5% ± 0.12.7% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00291%
B. Brobbey F21.6% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00254%
N. Mukiele D8.8% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00186%
W. Isidor F7.5% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00146%
C. Talbi F5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.0019%
T. Hume D5.7% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00163%
N. Angulo F3.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00177%
G. Xhaka M2.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00191%

Run 991 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 486, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bournemouth)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sunderland)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBournemouth 2.8 d rest (short) · Sunderland 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:14 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bournemouth

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League H AC Milan +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H Sturm Graz) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLH LiverpoolL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA ChelseaL 1–5counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH Sturm GrazNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELH AC Milan+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLA Manchester United+7 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Aston Villa+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLH Leeds+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Scott (M) — reason unknown; J. Kluivert (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bournemouth: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Truffert · regularD0840' France, 12.8 d before
T. Adams · regularM090—
Rayan · regularM090—
Evanilson · regularF090—
D. BrooksM045—
R. ChristieM014572' Scotland, 11.8 d before
António Silva · regularD090—
A. Smith · regularD072—
Đ. Petrović · regularG090—
J. Hill · regularD090—
M. Tavernier · regularM072—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 206 minutes — R. Christie (72' Scotland, 11.8 d before); A. Tóth (61' Hungary, 12.8 d before); B. Doak (73' Scotland, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Sunderland

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Lech Poznan +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (A Torreense) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA Manchester CityL 3–5counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BrightonL 0–2counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELA TorreenseNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA Lech Poznan+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Leeds+7.1 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Brentford+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctPLA Coventry+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 46 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: B. Brobbey (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Sunderland: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Mukiele · regularD090—
G. Xhaka · regularM090—
W. IsidorF017989' Haiti, 13.5 d before
K. DansoD018090' Austria, 13.9 d before
Reinildo · regularD073—
R. Roefs · regularG0900' Netherlands, 13.8 d before
N. Angulo · regularM073—
N. Sadiki · regularM090—
T. MeunierM034—
E. Le Fée · regularM081—
T. Hume · regularD018090' Northern Ireland, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 269 minutes — W. Isidor (89' Haiti, 13.5 d before); K. Danso (90' Austria, 13.9 d before); T. Hume (90' Northern Ireland, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bournemouth50%47%47%
Draw25%27%27%
Sunderland25%26%26%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bournemouth

  • Bournemouth: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L1–5at Chelsea10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Liverpool20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Brentford12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Newcastle5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Everton29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Manchester City23 Aug · in model evidence

Sunderland

  • Sunderland: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.5 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–2v Brighton10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L3–5at Manchester City20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Arsenal12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Brentford5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Fulham30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Ipswich22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more6%
Over 1.576%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Both teams score54%

Bournemouth

Expected goals1.65
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more49%
Clean sheet34%

Sunderland

Expected goals1.08
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more29%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season17th v 16th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bournemouth

17th of 20 · 3 pts · W0 D3 L3 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 13

Home W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 9)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games LLDDD (most recent last)

Sunderland

16th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L4 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 5, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games LLLDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Bournemouth to win50.4%50.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Draw25.1%24.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Sunderland to win24.5%25.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw limited evidence75.5%75.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Sunderland or draw limited evidence49.6%49.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Not a draw limited evidence74.9%75.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Draw no bet
Bournemouth to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence67.2%66.9% ± 0.2no
Sunderland to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence32.8%33.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.1%93.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 94¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.9%6.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 8¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence75.9%75.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 78¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence24.1%24.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 25¢
Over 2.5 goals in total51.2%51.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 54¢
Under 2.5 goals in total48.8%48.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence29.1%29.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence70.9%71.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence14.1%14.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence85.9%86.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence5.9%5.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence94.1%94.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence53.5%53.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence46.5%46.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢
Team goals
Bournemouth over 0.5 goals limited evidence80.7%80.5% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth under 0.5 goals limited evidence19.3%19.5% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth over 1.5 goals limited evidence49.0%48.8% ± 0.2no
Bournemouth under 1.5 goals limited evidence51.0%51.2% ± 0.2no
Bournemouth over 2.5 goals limited evidence22.9%22.7% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals limited evidence77.1%77.3% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth over 3.5 goals limited evidence8.5%8.4% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.5%91.6% ± 0.1no
Sunderland over 0.5 goals limited evidence65.9%66.0% ± 0.1no
Sunderland under 0.5 goals limited evidence34.1%34.0% ± 0.1no
Sunderland over 1.5 goals limited evidence29.3%29.4% ± 0.1no
Sunderland under 1.5 goals limited evidence70.7%70.6% ± 0.1no
Sunderland over 2.5 goals limited evidence9.5%9.5% ± 0.1no
Sunderland under 2.5 goals limited evidence90.5%90.5% ± 0.1no
Sunderland over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.4%2.4% ± 0.0no
Sunderland under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.6%97.6% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Bournemouth to win by 3 or more limited evidence11.5%11.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Bournemouth to win by 2 or more limited evidence27.0%26.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Bournemouth to win by 1 or more limited evidence50.4%50.5% ± 0.2no
Bournemouth not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence75.5%75.0% ± 0.1no
Bournemouth not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence90.6%90.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Bournemouth not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.3%97.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 99¢
Sunderland to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.7%2.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 5¢
Sunderland to win by 2 or more limited evidence9.4%9.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Sunderland to win by 1 or more limited evidence24.5%25.0% ± 0.1no
Sunderland not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence49.6%49.5% ± 0.2no
Sunderland not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence73.0%73.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Sunderland not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence88.5%88.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Clean sheet
Bournemouth clean sheet grid34.1%34.0% ± 0.1no
Sunderland clean sheet grid19.3%19.5% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.5% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth by exactly 1—23.7% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth by exactly 2—15.3% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth by exactly 3—7.5% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth by exactly 4—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth by exactly 5—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Sunderland by exactly 1—15.5% ± 0.1not listed
Sunderland by exactly 2—6.7% ± 0.1not listed
Sunderland by exactly 3—2.1% ± 0.0not listed
Sunderland by exactly 4—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Sunderland by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Bournemouth by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Sunderland by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland—11.6% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland—10.8% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland—9.7% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Bournemouth 0–1 Sunderland—7.1% ± 0.1not listed

Bournemouth v Sunderland: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Bournemouth to win (90 minutes)
50%
47%
YES on Bournemouth to WinBournemouth wins in 90 minutes
50%48¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 163 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sunderland to win (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on Sunderland to WinSunderland wins in 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,060 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,561 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBournemouth or Sunderland wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%74¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,402 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Sunderland to WinBournemouth wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,639 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Bournemouth to WinSunderland wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
50%54¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,014 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
93%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
93%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 639 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
7%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 633 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
76%
77%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
76%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,418 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
24%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,678 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
51%
53%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
51%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,138 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
49%49¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,672 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
29%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,141 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
71%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 640 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
14%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
86%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
6%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 514 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
94%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 704 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
54%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
54%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,419 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
46%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 626 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
27%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBournemouth wins by 2 goals or more
27%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 710 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 1 goal · Bournemouth not by 2+ goals
73%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 642 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBournemouth wins by 3 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 511 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Bournemouth to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSunderland wins or the match is drawn, or Bournemouth wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bournemouth not by 3+ goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 620 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Sunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSunderland wins by 2 goals or more
9%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,213 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Sunderland to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 1 goal · Sunderland not by 2+ goals
91%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 620 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Sunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSunderland wins by 3 goals or more
3%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 516 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Sunderland to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBournemouth wins or the match is drawn, or Sunderland wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sunderland not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,253 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 50.4% · draw 25.1% · away 24.5%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.08
Bournemouth eligible matches
121 (120 with xG)
Sunderland eligible matches
45 (45 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BournemouthOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctChelseaaway1–51.52–1.16L
20 SeptLiverpoolhome0–10.79–1.65L
17 SeptReal Sociedadaway2–1—W
12 SeptBrentfordhome2–21.75–0.50D
5 SeptNewcastleaway2–21.37–0.71D
29 AugEvertonhome1–12.16–1.84D
SunderlandOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBrightonhome0–20.68–1.14L
20 SeptManchester Cityaway3–53.57–2.82L
16 SeptAZ Alkmaarhome1–02.90–1.49W
12 SeptArsenalhome0–21.80–1.88L
5 SeptBrentfordaway1–11.71–1.21D
30 AugFulhamhome1–02.02–0.95W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT18BOUSUN-BTTS
53.5%56.5%−3.0 pts0.55 / 0.580.457,419 / 626Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bournemouth to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU
50.4%47.0%+3.4 pts0.46 / 0.480.54163 / 4,014Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sunderland to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN
24.5%26.0%−1.5 pts0.25 / 0.270.758,060 / 4,639Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT18BOUSUN-TIE
25.1%26.5%−1.4 pts0.26 / 0.270.746,561 / 3,402Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bournemouth to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU2
27.0%24.0%+3.0 pts0.23 / 0.250.77710 / 642Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bournemouth to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-BOU3
11.5%10.0%+1.5 pts0.09 / 0.110.91511 / 620Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sunderland to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN2
9.4%10.0%−0.6 pts0.09 / 0.110.911,213 / 620Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sunderland to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT18BOUSUN-SUN3
2.7%3.0%−0.3 pts0.01 / 0.050.99516 / 2,253Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-1
93.1%93.0%+0.1 pts0.92 / 0.940.08639 / 633Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-2
75.9%76.5%−0.6 pts0.75 / 0.780.258,418 / 1,678Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-3
51.2%52.5%−1.3 pts0.51 / 0.540.491,138 / 1,672Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-4
29.1%30.5%−1.4 pts0.29 / 0.320.711,141 / 640Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-5
14.1%15.5%−1.4 pts0.15 / 0.160.851,129 / 0Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT18BOUSUN-6
5.9%5.5%+0.4 pts0.05 / 0.060.95514 / 704Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:14:00.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home47.2%44.8% – 48.2%50.0%2.001050.4%+3.2 pts
1x2:draw26.5%26.1% – 27.6%27.9%3.591025.1%−1.4 pts
1x2:away26.4%25.5% – 27.6%28.0%3.581024.5%−1.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:25 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.552.6%52.4% – 53.6%55.3%1.81851.2%−1.4 pts
total_goals:under:2.547.4%46.4% – 47.6%49.6%2.02848.8%+1.4 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:26 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.75 · draw 3.65 · home 1.9911/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.64 · draw 3.58 · home 2.0111/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 3.21 · draw 3.21 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.50 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.50 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.55 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.85 · draw 3.75 · home 2.0411/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.60 · home 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.50 · draw 3.50 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2511/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0111/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.79 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 2.0711/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.0511/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9311/10/2026, 09:31:2611/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:14:00.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:13 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Bournemouthok11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Sunderlandok11/10/2026, 01:39:12 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home50.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away24.5%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x75.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x249.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes53.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no46.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.575.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.524.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.551.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.548.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.529.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.570.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.514.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.585.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.55.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.594.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.580.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.519.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.549.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.551.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.565.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.534.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.529.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.570.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.59.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.590.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.511.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.588.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.527.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.573.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.550.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.549.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.575.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.524.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home67.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away32.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 486 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:14:00