Serie A·Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 PDT

VeneziavNapoli

Venezia

15%

Draw

22%

Napoli

63%

Got%OnIt gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Worth knowing: Venezia has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 0.8 goals for Venezia and 1.8 for Napoli.
Venezia won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 a game.
Napoli won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Venezia has little or no Serie A history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Venezia are 20th of 20 after 5 games; Napoli are 7th.
Venezia have won 0 and lost 5; Napoli have won 3 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Venezia

L0–2v Lazio19 Sept
L2–4v Fiorentina11 Sept
L2–3at Frosinone6 Sept
L0–2at AC Milan28 Aug
L0–2v Lecce23 Aug
L2–3v Juventus25 May

Napoli

W3–0v Frosinone10 Oct
D1–1at Fiorentina20 Sept
W1–0v Bologna13 Sept
L2–3at Inter5 Sept
L1–2v Como30 Aug
W2–0at Genoa22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 547, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Napoli)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Venezia)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationVenezia 1 absent regular · Napoli 3.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Venezia

4.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Genoa +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptSAH LazioL 0–2counted as workload
Mon 12 OctSAA AtalantaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sun 25 OctSAA Genoa+8 d
Wed 28 OctSAH Inter+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: R. Haps (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Venezia: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	International (14 d)
T. Correia	M	—
A. Hainaut	M	—
A. Adams	F	—
J. Schingtienne · regular	D	—
F. Stankovic	G	0' Serbia, 12.8 d before
K. Perez · regular	M	—
S. Sohm	M	—
Juan Jesus	D	—
M. Moreno	D	—
J. Yeboah	F	—
T. J. Helgason	M	0' Iceland, 13.9 d before; 0' Iceland, 10.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Napoli

3.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Bodo/Glimt +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.8 d before (A Villarreal); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Bodo/Glimt) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptSAA FiorentinaD 1–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctSAH FrosinoneW 3–0counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLA VillarrealNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLH Bodo/Glimt+3.2 d
Sat 24 OctSAH AS Roma+7.1 d
Wed 28 OctSAA Monza+11.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Alisson Santos (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.5 CONFIRMED

Napoli: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Rafa Marín · regular	D	90	90	—
N. Lang	M	72	130	58' Netherlands, 12.8 d before
Amir Rrahmani · regular	D	90	90	—
K. De Bruyne	M	90	90	—
David Neres	M	61	61	—
R. Højlund · regular	F	61	143	82' Denmark, 12.8 d before
L. Spinazzola	M	81	81	—
S. Lobotka · regular	M	71	161	90' Slovakia, 10.8 d before
G. Di Lorenzo · regular	M	90	145	55' Italy, 11.8 d before
B. Badiashile	D	90	90	—
A. Meret · regular	G	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 553 minutes — V. Milinković-Savić (90' Serbia, 12.8 d before); N. Lang (58' Netherlands, 12.8 d before); B. Gilmour (88' Scotland, 13.8 d before; 90' Scotland, 10.8 d before); R. Højlund (82' Denmark, 12.8 d before); S. Lobotka (90' Slovakia, 10.8 d before); G. Di Lorenzo (55' Italy, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 1 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Venezia

A. Adorante · injury / absence: Inguinal Hernia · Missing Fixture
M. Šverko · injury / absence: Hip Injury · Missing Fixture

Napoli

A. Buongiorno · injury / absence: Jumpers Knee · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Venezia	15%	21%	20%
Draw	22%	24%	23%
Napoli	63%	55%	57%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 31 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Napoli a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (63% vs 55%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Venezia

Venezia: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.9 and conceded 2.3 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 50%.

L0–2v Lazio19 Sept · in model evidence
L2–4v Fiorentina11 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at Frosinone6 Sept · in model evidence
L0–2at AC Milan28 Aug · in model evidence
L0–2v Lecce23 Aug · in model evidence
L2–3v Juventus25 May · in model evidence

Napoli

Napoli: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 0.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 60%.
Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.

W3–0v Frosinone10 Oct · in model evidence
D1–1at Fiorentina20 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Bologna13 Sept · in model evidence
L2–3at Inter5 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2v Como30 Aug · in model evidence
W2–0at Genoa22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	7%
1 goal	19%
2 goals	25%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	14%
5 goals	7%
6 or more	5%
Over 1.5	73%
Over 2.5	48%
Over 3.5	26%
Both teams score	45%

Venezia

Expected goals	0.76
Scores at least once	53%
Scores 2 or more	18%
Clean sheet	16%

Napoli

Expected goals	1.85
Scores at least once	84%
Scores 2 or more	55%
Clean sheet	47%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability3 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

3 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 1 h ago.

Venezia

A. AdoranteOutInguinal Hernia
M. ŠverkoOutHip Injury

Napoli

A. BuongiornoOutJumpers Knee

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season20th v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Venezia

20th of 20 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L5 from 5 games · scored 4, conceded 13

Home W0 D0 L3 (scored 2, conceded 8) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLLL (most recent last)

Napoli

7th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L2 from 6 games · scored 10, conceded 6

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 5, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WDWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Napoli to win (90 minutes)

63%

57%

YES on Napoli to WinNapoli wins in 90 minutes

63%58¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 8,822 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

22%

23%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

22%23¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,460 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Venezia to win (90 minutes)

15%

20%

YES on Venezia to WinVenezia wins in 90 minutes

15%21¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,441 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawVenezia or Napoli wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

78%78¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,709 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Napoli to WinVenezia wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

37%44¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,203 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Venezia to WinNapoli wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

85%81¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,677 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

93%

95%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

93%95¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

7%6¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 720 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

73%

80%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

73%81¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 701 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

27%22¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,220 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

48%

56%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

48%58¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,001 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

52%45¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,690 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

26%

33%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

26%34¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

74%68¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,539 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

17%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

12%18¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

88%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

5%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

95%94¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 769 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

45%

56%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

45%57¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 691 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

55%46¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,952 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Winning margin

Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

38%

32%

Limited evidence

YES on Napoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNapoli wins by 2 goals or more

38%33¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Napoli to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVenezia wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 1 goal · Napoli not by 2+ goals

62%69¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,082 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

18%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Napoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNapoli wins by 3 goals or more

18%16¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,290 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Napoli to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVenezia wins or the match is drawn, or Napoli wins by 2 goals or fewer · Napoli not by 3+ goals

82%87¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 958 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Venezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVenezia wins by 2 goals or more

4%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,190 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Venezia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsNapoli wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 1 goal · Venezia not by 2+ goals

96%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,314 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Venezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVenezia wins by 3 goals or more

1%4¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Venezia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsNapoli wins or the match is drawn, or Venezia wins by 2 goals or fewer · Venezia not by 3+ goals

99%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 14.7% · draw 21.9% · away 63.4%
Expected goals: 0.76 – 1.85
Venezia eligible matches: 43 (40 with xG)
Napoli eligible matches: 120 (115 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's away probability is 6% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Venezia	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
19 Sept	Lazio	home	0–2	1.89–1.60	L
11 Sept	Fiorentina	home	2–4	0.49–3.31	L
6 Sept	Frosinone	away	2–3	—	L
28 Aug	AC Milan	away	0–2	—	L
23 Aug	Lecce	home	0–2	—	L
25 May	Juventus	home	2–3	0.88–1.96	L

Napoli	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Frosinone	home	3–0	3.17–1.03	W
20 Sept	Fiorentina	away	1–1	—	D
13 Sept	Bologna	home	1–0	—	W
5 Sept	Inter	away	2–3	—	L
30 Aug	Como	home	1–2	—	L
22 Aug	Genoa	away	2–0	—	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17VENNAP-BTTS	44.7%	55.5%	−10.8 pts	0.54 / 0.57	0.46	691 / 3,952	Comparable seen 31 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Napoli to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP	63.4%	57.0%	+6.4 pts	0.56 / 0.58	0.44	8,822 / 2,203	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN	14.7%	20.0%	−5.3 pts	0.19 / 0.21	0.81	4,441 / 2,677	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17VENNAP-TIE	21.9%	22.5%	−0.6 pts	0.22 / 0.23	0.78	5,460 / 2,709	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Napoli to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP2	37.6%	32.0%	+5.6 pts	0.31 / 0.33	0.69	500 / 4,082	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Napoli to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-NAP3	18.0%	14.5%	+3.5 pts	0.13 / 0.16	0.87	1,290 / 958	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN2	4.2%	6.5%	−2.3 pts	0.05 / 0.08	0.95	1,190 / 1,314	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Venezia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17VENNAP-VEN3	0.9%	2.5%	−1.6 pts	0.01 / 0.04	0.99	25 / 300	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-1	92.6%	94.5%	−1.9 pts	0.94 / 0.95	0.06	2 / 720	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-2	73.3%	79.5%	−6.2 pts	0.78 / 0.81	0.22	701 / 1,220	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-3	48.3%	56.5%	−8.2 pts	0.55 / 0.58	0.45	2,001 / 1,690	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-4	26.5%	33.0%	−6.5 pts	0.32 / 0.34	0.68	0 / 2,539	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-5	12.3%	17.0%	−4.7 pts	0.16 / 0.18	0.84	500 / 501	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17VENNAP-6	4.9%	7.0%	−2.1 pts	0.06 / 0.08	0.94	501 / 769	Comparable seen 31 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:29.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	20.6%	19.8% – 21.3%	21.7%	4.60	10	14.7%	−6.0 pts
1x2:draw	24.1%	22.9% – 25.0%	25.5%	3.92	10	21.9%	−2.1 pts
1x2:away	55.4%	54.3% – 55.9%	58.8%	1.70	10	63.4%	+7.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:24.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	56.3%	54.8% – 57.9%	59.2%	1.69	7	48.3%	−8.1 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	43.7%	42.1% – 45.2%	45.5%	2.20	7	51.7%	+8.1 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:24.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.71 · draw 4.10 · home 4.60	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.70 · draw 3.80 · home 4.60	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.70 · draw 4.13 · home 4.44	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBO	Match winner	away 1.61 · draw 3.61 · home 4.31	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.70 · draw 3.80 · home 4.33	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.70 · draw 3.75 · home 4.75	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Dafabet	Match winner	away 1.71 · draw 3.95 · home 4.70	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.76 · draw 4.22 · home 4.74	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Match winner	away 1.72 · draw 3.95 · home 4.55	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.67 · draw 3.90 · home 4.60	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.18	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.69 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 2.26	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.66 · under 2.5 2.05	11/10/2026, 11:37:24	11/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:29.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:42:04 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Venezia	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:14 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Napoli	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	14.7%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	21.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	63.4%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	36.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	85.3%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	78.1%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	44.7%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	55.3%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	92.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	7.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	73.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	26.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	48.3%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	51.7%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	26.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	73.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	12.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	87.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	4.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	95.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	53.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	47.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	17.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	82.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	4.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	95.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	0.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	99.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	84.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	15.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	55.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	44.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	28.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	71.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	11.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	88.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	0.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	99.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	4.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	95.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	14.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	85.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	36.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	63.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	62.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	37.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	82.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	18.0%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	18.8%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	81.2%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 547 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:29