Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Hamburger SVvVfB Stuttgart

Hamburger SV
26%
Draw
23%
VfB Stuttgart
51%

Got%OnIt gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.9 for VfB Stuttgart.
  • Hamburger SV won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.7 a game.
  • VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Hamburger SV are 11th of 18 after 5 games; VfB Stuttgart are 10th.
  • Hamburger SV have won 2 and lost 3; VfB Stuttgart have won 2 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Hamburger SV

  • W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim10 Oct
  • W2–1v 1. FC Köln19 Sept
  • L0–5at RB Leipzig13 Sept
  • L0–5v FSV Mainz 056 Sept
  • L0–2at Borussia Dortmund29 Aug
  • D1–1at Bayer Leverkusen16 May

VfB Stuttgart

  • W2–0at SC Paderborn 0710 Oct
  • L0–1v Borussia Dortmund19 Sept
  • L1–2at 1899 Hoffenheim12 Sept
  • W3–1v Viking9 Sept
  • W4–1v 1. FC Köln4 Sept
  • L1–5at Bayern München28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Hamburger SV win25.8%23.3%−2.5 pts
Draw23.0%21.8%−1.1 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%54.8%+3.7 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.29 and 1.89). Hamburger SV 1.29 · VfB Stuttgart 1.89 · total 3.18 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Hamburger SV–VfB Stuttgart)

  1. 1–110.4%
  2. 1–29.6%
  3. 0–17.6%
  4. 0–27.4%
  5. 2–16.5%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Hamburger SV

Expected goals
1.29
Scoring vs average
×0.69
Conceding vs average
×1.31

VfB Stuttgart

Expected goals
1.89
Scoring vs average
×1.31
Conceding vs average
×0.69
  • Hamburger SV (home): expected to score ×0.69 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.31 the average.
  • VfB Stuttgart (away): expected to score ×1.31 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.69 the average.
  • Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Hamburger SV
39 matches (39 with xG)
VfB Stuttgart
128 matches (127 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home25.8%over-stated by 3.9 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 19.4%
1x2:draw23.0%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 20.5%
1x2:away51.2%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 49.6%
double_chance:1x48.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x274.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1277.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes61.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no38.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.6%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.3%
total_goals:under:0.54.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.582.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 82.3%
total_goals:under:1.517.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.561.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 60.9%
total_goals:under:2.538.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.539.2%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.6%
total_goals:under:3.560.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.521.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 20.2%
total_goals:under:4.578.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.510.3%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 9.3%
total_goals:under:5.589.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.572.4%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 71.8%
team_total:home:under:0.527.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.536.9%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 36.3%
team_total:home:under:1.563.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.514.0%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.6%
team_total:home:under:2.586.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.3%
team_total:home:under:3.595.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.584.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.4%
team_total:away:under:0.515.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.556.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.6%
team_total:away:under:1.543.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.529.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.7%
team_total:away:under:2.570.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.512.3%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 11.7%
team_total:away:under:3.587.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.53.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.8%
spread:away:+2.596.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 96.1%
spread:home:-1.510.9%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.1%
spread:away:+1.589.1%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.7%
spread:home:-0.525.8%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.0%
spread:away:+0.574.2%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.6%
spread:home:+0.548.8%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.1%
spread:away:-0.551.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.9%
spread:home:+1.570.8%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.2%
spread:away:-1.529.2%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 28.3%
spread:home:+2.586.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.513.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home33.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away66.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.37 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5753772772036414966 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.17 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Hamburger SV win25.8%26.0% ± 0.1+0.21 pts
Draw23.0%22.4% ± 0.1−0.62 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%51.6% ± 0.2+0.41 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.37 pts (total_goals:over:4.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Hamburger SV
14.9% ± 0.1 (exact 15.1%)
VfB Stuttgart
27.5% ± 0.1 (exact 27.6%)

Goal difference (Hamburger SV minus VfB Stuttgart)

  1. <-50.5% ± 0.0
  2. -51.3% ± 0.0
  3. -43.5% ± 0.1
  4. -38.4% ± 0.1
  5. -215.5% ± 0.1
  6. -122.4% ± 0.1
  7. 022.4% ± 0.1
  8. 115.2% ± 0.1
  9. 27.2% ± 0.1
  10. 32.6% ± 0.1
  11. 40.7% ± 0.0
  12. 50.2% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Hamburger SV 1–1 VfB Stuttgart10.0% ± 0.110.4%
Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart9.5% ± 0.19.6%
Hamburger SV 0–1 VfB Stuttgart8.0% ± 0.17.6%
Hamburger SV 0–2 VfB Stuttgart7.4% ± 0.17.4%
Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart6.5% ± 0.16.5%

Expected goals (simulated)

Hamburger SV
mean 1.29 · variance 1.29 · ± 0.004
VfB Stuttgart
mean 1.90 · variance 1.89 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move vfb stuttgart win by −2.8 pts (to 48.4%). Expected goals move +0.02 for Hamburger SV and −0.12 for VfB Stuttgart.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Hamburger SV win25.8%28.4%+2.5 pts
Draw23.0%23.3%+0.3 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%48.4%−2.8 pts
Expected goals1.29 – 1.891.31 – 1.77+0.02 / −0.12

Data labels: CONFIRMED 120 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 56 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Hamburger SV

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. Daka, A. Gronbaek, Z. El Ouahdi, A. Rossing-LelesiitESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Heuer Fernandes)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

VfB Stuttgart

Attack ×0.94 band 0.91–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 12.3% of goals share out

  • D. Zagadou D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • N. Nartey M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 3.9% · effect −3.9% REPORTED
  • L. Stergiou D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Drljaca G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Tomas F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 7.7% · effect −7.7% REPORTED
  • J. Diehl Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Al Dakhil D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Chabot D Questionable (Injury) · share 1.5% · effect −0.7% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice F. Bredlow)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move vfb stuttgart win by +1.9 pts (to 53.1%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Hamburger SV and +0.00 for VfB Stuttgart.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Hamburger SV win25.8%24.5%−1.3 pts
Draw23.0%22.4%−0.6 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%53.1%+1.9 pts
Expected goals1.29 – 1.891.22 – 1.89−0.07 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 120 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 56 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Hamburger SV rate ×0.95 band 0.69–1.52

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.054545454545454564 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart rate ×1.00 band 0.65–1.52

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.054545454545454564 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move vfb stuttgart win by −1.2 pts (to 50.0%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Hamburger SV and −0.11 for VfB Stuttgart.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Hamburger SV win25.8%26.7%+0.9 pts
Draw23.0%23.3%+0.3 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%50.0%−1.2 pts
Expected goals1.29 – 1.891.24 – 1.78−0.05 / −0.11

Data labels: CONFIRMED 120 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 56 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Hamburger SV

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: P. Daka, A. Gronbaek, Z. El Ouahdi, A. Rossing-LelesiitESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Heuer Fernandes)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

VfB Stuttgart

Attack ×0.94 band 0.91–0.97 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 12.3% of goals share out

  • D. Zagadou D Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • N. Nartey M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 3.9% · effect −3.9% REPORTED
  • L. Stergiou D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. Drljaca G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Tomas F Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 7.7% · effect −7.7% REPORTED
  • J. Diehl Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Al Dakhil D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Chabot D Questionable (Injury) · share 1.5% · effect −0.7% · defensive starter REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice F. Bredlow)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off

Hamburger SV rate ×0.95 band 0.69–1.52

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.054545454545454564 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart rate ×1.00 band 0.65–1.52

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.054545454545454564 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12323232323232325 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Hamburger SV win25.8%25.8%−0.1 pts
Draw23.0%22.3%−0.7 pts
VfB Stuttgart win51.2%51.9%+0.7 pts
Expected goals—1.29 – 1.91−0.00 / +0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 551 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)D. Undav 37% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Hamburger SV

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 59% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
F. Vieira F16.0% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00158%
A. Gronbaek M9.9% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00178%
A. Sambi Lokonga M9.6% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00186%
N. Capaldo D7.9% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.001100%
Y. Poulsen F4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00137%
B. Jatta M2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00128%
M. Muheim M2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0000%
T. Moffi F2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00029%

VfB Stuttgart

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 83% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Undav M37.2% ± 0.28.0% ± 0.10.47 ± 0.00286%
E. Demirovic F23.9% ± 0.13.0% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.00278%
M. Mittelstadt D16.2% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.001100%
C. Fuhrich M15.5% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00193%
J. Leweling F11.5% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00145%
B. El Khannouss M7.4% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00139%
J. Vagnoman D5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00171%
D. Pejcinovic F4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00137%

Run 972 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 467, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (VfB Stuttgart)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Hamburger SV)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationHamburger SV 1 absent regular · VfB Stuttgart 2.8 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Hamburger SV

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A SC Paderborn 07 +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH 1. FC KölnW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA 1899 HoffenheimW 3–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA SC Paderborn 07+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH Eintracht Frankfurt+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Gronbaek (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.9 CONFIRMED

Hamburger SV: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. LemkeM7676—
Y. PoulsenF5959—
Fábio Vieira · regularM9090—
D. Møller WolfeM9018090' Norway, 12.8 d before
N. Remberg · regularM4141—
W. Omari · regularD9090—
M. AdelineM7676—
A. Sambi Lokonga · regularM7676—
Daniel Heuer Fernandes · regularG9090—
S. BornauwD9090—
N. Capaldo · regularD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 180 minutes — D. Møller Wolfe (90' Norway, 12.8 d before); I. Pherai (90' Suriname, 11.6 d before) CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Atletico Madrid +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.8 d before (A Slovan Bratislava); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Atletico Madrid) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH Borussia DortmundL 0–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA SC Paderborn 07W 2–0counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA Slovan BratislavaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Atletico Madrid+3.2 d
  • Fri 23 OctBLH Borussia Mönchengladbach+6.2 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA SC Paderborn 07+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 56 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.1 CONFIRMED

VfB Stuttgart: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
R. Hendriks · regularD9090—
J. Chabot · regularD7272—
A. Stiller · regularM9090—
E. Demirović · regularF7715578' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before
J. LewelingM7777—
A. KarazorM9090—
J. VagnomanM9090—
D. SeimenG9090—
M. Mittelstädt · regularD90900' Germany, 12.8 d before
D. Undav · regularM8585—
C. Führich · regularM8585—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 101 minutes — L. Sauer (23' Slovakia, 10.8 d before); E. Demirović (78' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Hamburger SV26%25%24%
Draw23%24%23%
VfB Stuttgart51%52%53%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 27 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Hamburger SV

  • Hamburger SV: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 2.4 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W3–2at 1899 Hoffenheim10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v 1. FC Köln19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5at RB Leipzig13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v FSV Mainz 056 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Borussia Dortmund29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Bayer Leverkusen16 May · in model evidence

VfB Stuttgart

  • VfB Stuttgart: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.9 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W2–0at SC Paderborn 0710 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Borussia Dortmund19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at 1899 Hoffenheim12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–1v 1. FC Köln4 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–5at Bayern München28 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Eintracht Frankfurt16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal13%
2 goals21%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals11%
6 or more10%
Over 1.583%
Over 2.562%
Over 3.539%
Both teams score62%

Hamburger SV

Expected goals1.29
Scores at least once72%
Scores 2 or more37%
Clean sheet15%

VfB Stuttgart

Expected goals1.89
Scores at least once85%
Scores 2 or more56%
Clean sheet28%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season11th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Hamburger SV

11th of 18 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 15

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 9)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games WWLLL (most recent last)

VfB Stuttgart

10th of 18 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 9

Home W1 D0 L1 (scored 4, conceded 2) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLLWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Hamburger SV to win25.8%26.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Draw23.0%22.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
VfB Stuttgart to win51.2%51.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 54¢
Double chance
Hamburger SV or draw limited evidence48.8%48.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
VfB Stuttgart or draw limited evidence74.2%74.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Not a draw limited evidence77.0%77.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Draw no bet
Hamburger SV to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence33.5%33.5% ± 0.2no
VfB Stuttgart to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence66.5%66.5% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.6%95.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.4%4.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence82.8%82.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 90¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence17.2%17.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 13¢
Over 2.5 goals in total61.5%61.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 70¢
Under 2.5 goals in total38.5%38.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 32¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence39.2%39.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 49¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence60.8%60.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence21.5%21.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence78.5%78.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence10.3%10.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence89.7%89.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence61.7%61.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 68¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence38.3%38.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 33¢
Team goals
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals limited evidence72.4%72.5% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals limited evidence27.6%27.5% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals limited evidence36.9%37.1% ± 0.2no
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals limited evidence63.1%62.9% ± 0.2no
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.0%14.1% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals limited evidence86.0%85.9% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.2%4.2% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.8%95.8% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart over 0.5 goals limited evidence84.9%85.1% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart under 0.5 goals limited evidence15.1%14.9% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 goals limited evidence56.3%56.5% ± 0.2no
VfB Stuttgart under 1.5 goals limited evidence43.7%43.5% ± 0.2no
VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals limited evidence29.3%29.6% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart under 2.5 goals limited evidence70.7%70.4% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart over 3.5 goals limited evidence12.3%12.5% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart under 3.5 goals limited evidence87.7%87.5% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Hamburger SV to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.6%3.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Hamburger SV to win by 2 or more limited evidence10.9%10.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Hamburger SV to win by 1 or more limited evidence25.8%26.0% ± 0.1no
Hamburger SV not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence48.8%48.4% ± 0.2no
Hamburger SV not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence70.8%70.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 69¢
Hamburger SV not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence86.4%86.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
VfB Stuttgart to win by 3 or more limited evidence13.6%13.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
VfB Stuttgart to win by 2 or more limited evidence29.2%29.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
VfB Stuttgart to win by 1 or more limited evidence51.2%51.6% ± 0.2no
VfB Stuttgart not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence74.2%74.0% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence89.1%89.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
VfB Stuttgart not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.4%96.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Clean sheet
Hamburger SV clean sheet grid15.1%14.9% ± 0.1no
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet grid27.6%27.5% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—22.4% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV by exactly 1—15.2% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV by exactly 2—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV by exactly 3—2.6% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV by exactly 4—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
Hamburger SV by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
VfB Stuttgart by exactly 1—22.4% ± 0.1not listed
VfB Stuttgart by exactly 2—15.5% ± 0.1not listed
VfB Stuttgart by exactly 3—8.4% ± 0.1not listed
VfB Stuttgart by exactly 4—3.5% ± 0.1not listed
VfB Stuttgart by exactly 5—1.3% ± 0.0not listed
Hamburger SV by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
VfB Stuttgart by 6 or more—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Hamburger SV 1–1 VfB Stuttgart—10.0% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart—9.5% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV 0–1 VfB Stuttgart—8.0% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV 0–2 VfB Stuttgart—7.4% ± 0.1not listed
Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart—6.5% ± 0.1not listed

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes)
26%
24%
YES on Hamburger SV to WinHamburger SV wins in 90 minutes
26%25¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,422 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes)
51%
53%
YES on VfB Stuttgart to WinVfB Stuttgart wins in 90 minutes
51%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,840 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawHamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,105 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to WinHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
49%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to WinVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
74%77¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 630 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 391 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%5¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
83%
89%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
83%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 630 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
17%13¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 13 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
62%
69%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
62%70¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 392 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
38%32¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
39%
48%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
39%49¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 392 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
61%53¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 211 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
22%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,341 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
78%71¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
10%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 390 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
90%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
68%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%68¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,480 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Winning margin
Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins by 2 goals or more
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 478 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 1 goal · Hamburger SV not by 2+ goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins by 3 goals or more
4%8¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on Hamburger SV to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins or the match is drawn, or Hamburger SV wins by 2 goals or fewer · Hamburger SV not by 3+ goals
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
29%
32%
Limited evidence
YES on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or more
29%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,242 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 1 goal · VfB Stuttgart not by 2+ goals
71%69¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 54 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsVfB Stuttgart wins by 3 goals or more
14%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
NO on VfB Stuttgart to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsHamburger SV wins or the match is drawn, or VfB Stuttgart wins by 2 goals or fewer · VfB Stuttgart not by 3+ goals
86%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 25.8% · draw 23.0% · away 51.2%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.89
Hamburger SV eligible matches
39 (39 with xG)
VfB Stuttgart eligible matches
128 (127 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Hamburger SVOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 Oct1899 Hoffenheimaway3–21.15–1.09W
19 Sept1. FC Kölnhome2–11.45–1.41W
13 SeptRB Leipzigaway0–51.10–2.43L
6 SeptFSV Mainz 05home0–50.19–2.77L
29 AugBorussia Dortmundaway0–20.91–1.53L
16 MayBayer Leverkusenaway1–11.79–3.27D
VfB StuttgartOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctSC Paderborn 07away2–02.45–1.91W
19 SeptBorussia Dortmundhome0–10.87–1.34L
12 Sept1899 Hoffenheimaway1–22.16–2.76L
9 SeptVikinghome3–1—W
4 Sept1. FC Kölnhome4–13.47–2.86W
28 AugBayern Münchenaway1–50.79–4.06L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17HSVVFB-BTTS
61.7%67.5%−5.8 pts0.67 / 0.680.330 / 1,480Comparable
seen 27 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Hamburger SV to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV
25.8%24.0%+1.8 pts0.23 / 0.250.773,422 / 630Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
VfB Stuttgart to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB
51.2%53.0%−1.8 pts0.52 / 0.540.484,840 / 330Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17HSVVFB-TIE
23.0%23.0%−0.0 pts0.22 / 0.240.78330 / 1,105Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Hamburger SV to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV2
10.9%10.0%+0.9 pts0.09 / 0.110.91478 / 25Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Hamburger SV to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-HSV3
3.6%5.0%−1.4 pts0.02 / 0.080.9825 / 25Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB2
29.2%31.5%−2.3 pts0.31 / 0.320.691,242 / 54Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
VfB Stuttgart to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17HSVVFB-VFB3
13.6%16.0%−2.4 pts0.15 / 0.170.85850 / 25Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-1
95.6%96.5%−0.9 pts0.95 / 0.980.05391 / 17Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-2
82.8%88.5%−5.7 pts0.87 / 0.900.13630 / 13Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-3
61.5%69.0%−7.5 pts0.68 / 0.700.32392 / 250Comparable
seen 27 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-4
39.2%48.0%−8.8 pts0.47 / 0.490.53392 / 211Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-5
21.5%29.5%−8.0 pts0.29 / 0.300.711,341 / 2Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17HSVVFB-6
10.3%15.5%−5.2 pts0.15 / 0.160.85390 / 3Comparable
seen 27 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:07:57.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home25.0%23.5% – 26.9%26.7%3.751025.8%+0.8 pts
1x2:draw23.5%22.6% – 24.7%24.8%4.041023.0%−0.5 pts
1x2:away51.7%49.2% – 52.3%54.8%1.821051.2%−0.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:16 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.6%67.0% – 71.1%73.5%1.36761.5%−7.1 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.4%28.9% – 33.0%34.1%2.93738.5%+7.1 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 3.98 · home 3.9811/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 4.10 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 3.85 · home 4.0411/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 1.80 · draw 3.71 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 3.75 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 1.80 · draw 4.10 · home 3.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.84 · draw 4.10 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.90 · draw 4.08 · home 4.0811/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.82 · draw 4.15 · home 3.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.75 · draw 4.00 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1611/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.30 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.9211/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.39 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.7811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:07:57.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:06 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Hamburger SVok11/10/2026, 01:39:23 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · VfB Stuttgartok11/10/2026, 01:39:22 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home25.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away51.2%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x48.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x274.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1277.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.582.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.517.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.561.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.538.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.539.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.560.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.521.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.578.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.510.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.589.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.572.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.527.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.536.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.563.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.586.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.584.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.515.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.556.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.543.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.529.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.570.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.512.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.587.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.53.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.596.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.510.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.589.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.525.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.574.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.548.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.551.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.570.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.529.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.586.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.513.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home33.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away66.5%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 467 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:07:57