Got%OnIt
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La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 07:15 PDT

Celta VigovAlaves

Celta Vigo
46%
Draw
28%
Alaves
26%

Got%OnIt gives Celta Vigo a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.4 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.0 for Alaves.
  • Celta Vigo won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.5 a game.
  • Alaves won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Celta Vigo are 15th of 20 after 7 games; Alaves are 6th.
  • Celta Vigo have won 1 and lost 2; Alaves have won 3 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Celta Vigo

  • D0–0at Elche11 Oct
  • W5–0v Racing Santander19 Sept
  • L0–1at Omonia Nicosia16 Sept
  • D1–1v Malaga13 Sept
  • D1–1at Getafe7 Sept
  • D0–0at Real Sociedad3 Sept

Alaves

  • L1–2v Atletico Madrid10 Oct
  • D0–0at Athletic Club19 Sept
  • L0–1v Valencia15 Sept
  • L1–2at Racing Santander12 Sept
  • W5–2v Osasuna6 Sept
  • W1–0v Villarreal28 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Celta Vigo win46.3%50.2%+3.9 pts
Draw27.7%26.1%−1.6 pts
Alaves win26.0%23.7%−2.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.40 and 0.98). Celta Vigo 1.40 · Alaves 0.98 · total 2.38 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Celta Vigo–Alaves)

  1. 1–113.0%
  2. 1–012.6%
  3. 0–09.6%
  4. 2–09.1%
  5. 2–18.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Celta Vigo

Expected goals
1.40
Scoring vs average
×0.87
Conceding vs average
×0.85

Alaves

Expected goals
0.98
Scoring vs average
×0.85
Conceding vs average
×0.87
  • Celta Vigo (home): expected to score ×0.87 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.85 the average.
  • Alaves (away): expected to score ×0.85 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.87 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Celta Vigo
137 matches (137 with xG)
Alaves
122 matches (122 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home46.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 44.8%
1x2:draw27.7%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 25.1%
1x2:away26.0%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 23.1%
double_chance:1x74.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x253.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1272.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes47.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no52.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.590.4%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.0%
total_goals:under:0.59.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.569.0%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.4%
total_goals:under:1.531.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.542.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.8%
total_goals:under:2.557.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.521.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.1%
total_goals:under:3.578.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.59.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 8.5%
total_goals:under:4.590.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.53.4%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 2.9%
total_goals:under:5.596.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.575.3%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.7%
team_total:home:under:0.524.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.540.8%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.1%
team_total:home:under:1.559.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.516.6%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.1%
team_total:home:under:2.583.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.55.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.5%
team_total:home:under:3.594.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.562.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 61.8%
team_total:away:under:0.537.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.525.7%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 25.1%
team_total:away:under:1.574.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.57.7%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.3%
team_total:away:under:2.592.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.4%
team_total:away:under:3.598.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.58.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.5%
spread:away:+2.591.5%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.1%
spread:home:-1.522.5%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.5%
spread:away:+1.577.5%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.0%
spread:home:-0.546.3%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.4%
spread:away:+0.553.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 53.0%
spread:home:+0.574.0%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.4%
spread:away:-0.526.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.8%
spread:home:+1.590.6%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.2%
spread:away:-1.59.4%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.8%
spread:home:+2.597.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home64.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away36.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.17 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 3501539522021416505 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Celta Vigo win46.3%46.6% ± 0.2+0.29 pts
Draw27.7%27.1% ± 0.1−0.61 pts
Alaves win26.0%26.3% ± 0.1+0.32 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.17 pts (total_goals:under:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Celta Vigo
37.5% ± 0.2 (exact 37.6%)
Alaves
24.8% ± 0.1 (exact 24.7%)

Goal difference (Celta Vigo minus Alaves)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.5% ± 0.0
  4. -31.9% ± 0.0
  5. -27.0% ± 0.1
  6. -116.8% ± 0.1
  7. 027.1% ± 0.1
  8. 124.2% ± 0.1
  9. 214.0% ± 0.1
  10. 35.8% ± 0.1
  11. 41.9% ± 0.0
  12. 50.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves13.0% ± 0.112.6%
Celta Vigo 1–1 Alaves12.7% ± 0.113.0%
Celta Vigo 0–0 Alaves9.3% ± 0.19.6%
Celta Vigo 0–1 Alaves9.2% ± 0.18.7%
Celta Vigo 2–0 Alaves9.1% ± 0.19.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Celta Vigo
mean 1.40 · variance 1.40 · ± 0.004
Alaves
mean 0.98 · variance 0.98 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 27.0%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Celta Vigo and +0.00 for Alaves.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Celta Vigo win46.3%46.6%+0.3 pts
Draw27.7%27.0%−0.7 pts
Alaves win26.0%26.3%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.40 – 0.981.40 – 0.98+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 132 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 12 h before as-of.

Celta Vigo

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: C. Starfelt, M. RomanESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice I. Radu)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Alaves

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: V. KoskiCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Sivera)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move celta vigo win by −1.6 pts (to 44.7%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Celta Vigo and +0.00 for Alaves.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Celta Vigo win46.3%44.7%−1.6 pts
Draw27.7%27.7%+0.0 pts
Alaves win26.0%27.6%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.40 – 0.981.33 – 0.98−0.07 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 132 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 12 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match

Celta Vigo rate ×0.95 band 0.64–1.44

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Alaves rate ×1.00 band 0.69–1.50

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move celta vigo win by −1.6 pts (to 44.7%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Celta Vigo and +0.00 for Alaves.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Celta Vigo win46.3%44.7%−1.6 pts
Draw27.7%27.7%+0.0 pts
Alaves win26.0%27.6%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.40 – 0.981.33 – 0.98−0.07 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 132 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 12 h before as-of.

Celta Vigo

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: C. Starfelt, M. RomanESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice I. Radu)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Alaves

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: V. KoskiCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Sivera)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match

Celta Vigo rate ×0.95 band 0.64–1.44

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Alaves rate ×1.00 band 0.69–1.50

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Celta Vigo win46.3%47.1%+0.8 pts
Draw27.7%26.8%−0.9 pts
Alaves win26.0%26.1%+0.1 pts
Expected goals—1.42 – 0.98+0.02 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 601 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)L. Boyé 25% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Celta Vigo

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 88% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
F. Jutgla F22.4% ± 0.12.8% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00283%
W. Swedberg M12.7% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00139%
B. Iglesias F11.6% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.0013%
P. Duran F10.9% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00151%
I. Moriba M9.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00182%
I. Aspas F7.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00117%
J. Rueda D5.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00167%
M. Roman M5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00169%

Alaves

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 83% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Boyé F25.1% ± 0.13.5% ± 0.10.29 ± 0.00292%
Toni Martínez F19.5% ± 0.12.0% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00161%
M. Diaz F5.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00139%
N. Tenaglia D4.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
P. Ibanez M3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00197%
A. Rebbach F3.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.001100%
Antonio Blanco M3.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00182%
V. Koski D2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00078%

Run 997 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 492, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Celta Vigo)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Alaves)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationCelta Vigo 2.8 d rest (short) · Alaves 8 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Celta Vigo

2.8 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Celtic +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −2.8 d before (H Juventus) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptLLH Racing SantanderW 5–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctLLA ElcheD 0–0counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUELH JuventusNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUELA Celtic+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLH Real Betis+7 d
  • Wed 28 OctCdRA Salamanca UDS+10.2 d
  • Sat 31 OctLLA Rayo Vallecano+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Roman (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Celta Vigo: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Hugo ÁlvarezF071—
Ferran Jutglà · regularF071—
Aleix FebasM083—
Marcos Alonso · regularD090—
I. Radu · regularG0900' Romania, 12.8 d before
Álvaro NúñezD090—
Yoel Lago · regularD090—
Javi Rueda · regularM090—
Pablo DuránF060—
I. Moriba · regularM090—
Javi GalánM071—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Alaves

8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Malaga +5.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptLLA Athletic ClubD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLH Atletico MadridL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Fri 23 OctLLH Malaga+5.2 d
  • Wed 28 OctCdRA Anaitasuna+10.2 d
  • Sat 31 OctLLA Barcelona+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Alaves: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Tenaglia · regularD090—
L. Boyé · regularF064—
Toni Martínez · regularF064—
A. Rebbach · regularM090—
Pablo Ibáñez · regularM090—
Antonio Blanco · regularM064—
N. ValentiniD071—
Sivera · regularG090—
Denis SuárezM079—
Angel Pérez · regularM090—
Jonny · regularD090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Celta Vigo46%47%48%
Draw28%28%28%
Alaves26%25%25%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Celta Vigo

  • Celta Vigo: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 0.7 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 50%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 20%.
  • D0–0at Elche11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W5–0v Racing Santander19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Malaga13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Getafe7 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Real Sociedad3 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Athletic Club30 Aug · in model evidence

Alaves

  • Alaves: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L1–2v Atletico Madrid10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Athletic Club19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Valencia15 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Racing Santander12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–2v Osasuna6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Villarreal28 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more3%
Over 1.569%
Over 2.542%
Over 3.522%
Both teams score47%

Celta Vigo

Expected goals1.40
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more41%
Clean sheet38%

Alaves

Expected goals0.98
Scores at least once62%
Scores 2 or more26%
Clean sheet25%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season15th v 6th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Celta Vigo

15th of 20 · 7 pts · W1 D4 L2 from 7 games · scored 8, conceded 6

Home W1 D1 L2 (scored 7, conceded 5) · Away W0 D3 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 3 in 7 games

Last five league games WDDDL (most recent last)

Alaves

6th of 20 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L3 from 8 games · scored 12, conceded 8

Home W3 D0 L2 (scored 10, conceded 5) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 2, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 2 in 8 games

Last five league games LDLLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Celta Vigo to win46.3%46.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 49¢
Draw27.7%27.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Alaves to win26.0%26.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Double chance
Celta Vigo or draw limited evidence74.0%73.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Alaves or draw limited evidence53.7%53.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Not a draw limited evidence72.3%72.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Draw no bet
Celta Vigo to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence64.0%63.9% ± 0.2no
Alaves to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence36.0%36.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence90.4%90.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 92¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence9.6%9.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 11¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence69.0%68.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence31.0%31.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 31¢
Over 2.5 goals in total42.5%42.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 46¢
Under 2.5 goals in total57.5%57.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 57¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence21.7%21.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 25¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence78.3%78.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence9.3%9.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence90.7%90.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence3.4%3.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence96.6%96.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence47.4%47.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence52.6%53.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Team goals
Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals limited evidence75.3%75.2% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals limited evidence24.7%24.8% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo over 1.5 goals limited evidence40.8%40.8% ± 0.2no
Celta Vigo under 1.5 goals limited evidence59.2%59.2% ± 0.2no
Celta Vigo over 2.5 goals limited evidence16.6%16.6% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo under 2.5 goals limited evidence83.4%83.4% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.4%5.3% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.6%94.7% ± 0.1no
Alaves over 0.5 goals limited evidence62.4%62.5% ± 0.2no
Alaves under 0.5 goals limited evidence37.6%37.5% ± 0.2no
Alaves over 1.5 goals limited evidence25.7%25.6% ± 0.1no
Alaves under 1.5 goals limited evidence74.3%74.4% ± 0.1no
Alaves over 2.5 goals limited evidence7.7%7.7% ± 0.1no
Alaves under 2.5 goals limited evidence92.3%92.3% ± 0.1no
Alaves over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.8%1.8% ± 0.0no
Alaves under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.2%98.2% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Celta Vigo to win by 3 or more limited evidence8.5%8.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Celta Vigo to win by 2 or more limited evidence22.5%22.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Celta Vigo to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.3%46.6% ± 0.2no
Celta Vigo not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence74.0%73.7% ± 0.1no
Celta Vigo not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence90.6%90.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Celta Vigo not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.4%97.5% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Alaves to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.6%2.5% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 8¢
Alaves to win by 2 or more limited evidence9.4%9.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Alaves to win by 1 or more limited evidence26.0%26.3% ± 0.1no
Alaves not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.7%53.4% ± 0.2no
Alaves not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence77.5%77.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Alaves not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence91.5%91.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Clean sheet
Celta Vigo clean sheet grid37.6%37.5% ± 0.2no
Alaves clean sheet grid24.7%24.8% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—27.1% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo by exactly 1—24.2% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo by exactly 2—14.0% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo by exactly 3—5.8% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo by exactly 4—1.9% ± 0.0not listed
Celta Vigo by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Alaves by exactly 1—16.8% ± 0.1not listed
Alaves by exactly 2—7.0% ± 0.1not listed
Alaves by exactly 3—1.9% ± 0.0not listed
Alaves by exactly 4—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Alaves by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Celta Vigo by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Alaves by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Celta Vigo 1–0 Alaves—13.0% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo 1–1 Alaves—12.7% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo 0–0 Alaves—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo 0–1 Alaves—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Celta Vigo 2–0 Alaves—9.1% ± 0.1not listed

Celta Vigo v Alaves: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Alaves to win (90 minutes)
26%
25%
YES on Alaves to WinAlaves wins in 90 minutes
26%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,028 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes)
46%
48%
YES on Celta Vigo to WinCelta Vigo wins in 90 minutes
46%49¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,549 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
28%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
28%30¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 7,191 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawCelta Vigo or Alaves wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
72%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 739 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Alaves to WinCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
74%77¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,093 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Celta Vigo to WinAlaves wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
54%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,038 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
91%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 738 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 725 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
69%
70%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
69%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
31%31¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,078 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
42%
45%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
42%46¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 706 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
58%57¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,110 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
24%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
22%25¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,473 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
78%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,123 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 711 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,050 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,177 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
47%
50%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
47%52¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,796 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
53%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,124 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Alaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAlaves wins by 2 goals or more
9%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 712 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Alaves to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 1 goal · Alaves not by 2+ goals
91%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Alaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAlaves wins by 3 goals or more
3%8¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Alaves to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins or the match is drawn, or Alaves wins by 2 goals or fewer · Alaves not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,500 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins by 2 goals or more
22%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 707 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAlaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 1 goal · Celta Vigo not by 2+ goals
78%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,533 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsCelta Vigo wins by 3 goals or more
8%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 712 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Celta Vigo to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAlaves wins or the match is drawn, or Celta Vigo wins by 2 goals or fewer · Celta Vigo not by 3+ goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 31 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 46.3% · draw 27.7% · away 26.0%
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.98
Celta Vigo eligible matches
137 (137 with xG)
Alaves eligible matches
122 (122 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Celta VigoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctElcheaway0–00.34–0.69D
19 SeptRacing Santanderhome5–02.14–0.75W
16 SeptOmonia Nicosiaaway0–11.17–0.32L
13 SeptMalagahome1–11.90–0.43D
7 SeptGetafeaway1–11.03–0.65D
3 SeptReal Sociedadaway0–00.43–1.05D
AlavesOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAtletico Madridhome1–21.13–2.06L
19 SeptAthletic Clubaway0–00.05–1.62D
15 SeptValenciahome0–11.05–0.65L
12 SeptRacing Santanderaway1–21.98–2.01L
6 SeptOsasunahome5–21.20–1.64W
28 AugVillarrealhome1–00.81–1.40W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RCCALA-BTTS
47.4%50.0%−2.6 pts0.48 / 0.520.524,796 / 1,124Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Alaves to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA
26.0%24.5%+1.5 pts0.23 / 0.260.774,028 / 1,093Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Celta Vigo to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC
46.3%47.5%−1.2 pts0.46 / 0.490.541,549 / 1,038Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RCCALA-TIE
27.7%28.5%−0.8 pts0.27 / 0.300.737,191 / 739Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Alaves to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA2
9.4%8.0%+1.4 pts0.07 / 0.090.93712 / 25Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Alaves to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-ALA3
2.6%4.5%−1.9 pts0.01 / 0.080.991 / 1,500Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Celta Vigo to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC2
22.5%22.5%−0.0 pts0.21 / 0.240.79707 / 1,533Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Celta Vigo to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RCCALA-RCC3
8.5%8.5%−0.0 pts0.07 / 0.100.93712 / 31Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-1
90.4%90.5%−0.1 pts0.89 / 0.920.11738 / 725Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-2
69.0%70.0%−1.0 pts0.69 / 0.710.319 / 1,078Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-3
42.5%44.5%−2.0 pts0.43 / 0.460.57706 / 1,110Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-4
21.7%23.5%−1.8 pts0.22 / 0.250.781,473 / 1,123Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-5
9.3%10.0%−0.7 pts0.09 / 0.110.91711 / 1,050Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RCCALA-6
3.4%4.0%−0.6 pts0.02 / 0.060.981,177 / 250Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:38.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home47.2%44.5% – 47.8%49.8%2.011046.3%−0.9 pts
1x2:draw27.8%27.3% – 28.9%29.4%3.401027.7%−0.1 pts
1x2:away25.1%24.7% – 26.6%26.5%3.771026.0%+0.9 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.545.1%44.6% – 46.4%47.2%2.12742.5%−2.6 pts
total_goals:under:2.554.9%53.6% – 55.4%57.8%1.73757.5%+2.6 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:28 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.84 · draw 3.48 · home 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.70 · draw 3.40 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.86 · draw 3.37 · home 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
SBOMatch winneraway 3.33 · draw 3.06 · home 1.9911/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
William HillMatch winneraway 3.70 · draw 3.30 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Match winneraway 3.75 · draw 3.40 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.85 · draw 3.40 · home 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.94 · draw 3.58 · home 2.0811/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.80 · draw 3.45 · home 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.60 · draw 3.25 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.12 · under 2.5 1.7411/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.14 · under 2.5 1.7211/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.18 · under 2.5 1.7911/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.99 · under 2.5 1.7011/10/2026, 09:31:2811/10/2026, 06:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:38.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:20 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Celta Vigook11/10/2026, 01:39:15 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Alavesok11/10/2026, 01:39:16 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home46.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away26.0%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x74.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x253.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1272.3%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes47.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no52.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.569.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.531.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.542.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.557.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.521.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.578.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.575.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.524.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.540.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.559.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.516.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.583.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.562.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.537.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.525.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.574.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.57.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.592.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.522.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.577.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.546.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.553.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.574.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.526.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home64.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away36.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 492 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:38