Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Serie A·Sat 17 Oct, 09:00 PDT

BolognavInter

Bologna
23%
Draw
23%
Inter
54%

Got%OnIt gives Inter a 54% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Bologna and 1.8 for Inter.
  • Bologna won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • Inter won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Bologna are 13th of 20 after 6 games; Inter are 1st.
  • Bologna have won 1 and lost 3; Inter have won 5 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Bologna

  • W2–1at Lecce11 Oct
  • D1–1v Torino19 Sept
  • L0–1at Napoli13 Sept
  • D2–2v Sassuolo6 Sept
  • L0–1at Atalanta31 Aug
  • L0–1v Lazio24 Aug

Inter

  • W3–0v Parma10 Oct
  • D2–2at AS Roma19 Sept
  • W5–3v Udinese14 Sept
  • W3–2v Napoli5 Sept
  • W1–0at Cagliari30 Aug
  • W4–1v Monza22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 569, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bologna)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Inter)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:38 PDT1198 finished Serie A matches (1184 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBologna 6 d rest · Inter 3.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bologna

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Cagliari +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAH TorinoD 1–1counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAA LecceW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctSAA Cagliari+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAA AC Milan+11.1 d
  • Sat 31 OctSAH Monza+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.1 CONFIRMED

Bologna: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. ZorteaM9090—
L. Ferguson · regularM9027090' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 90' Scotland, 10.9 d before
Juan Miranda · regularM8181—
R. OrsoliniM9090—
N. CasaleD9090—
M. PessinaG9090—
M. DarmianD9090—
T. Heggem · regularD5555—
T. Pobega · regularM6262—
N. CambiaghiM81810' Italy, 11.9 d before
R. PiccoliF6262—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 273 minutes — L. Ferguson (90' Scotland, 13.9 d before; 90' Scotland, 10.9 d before); M. Vitík (3' Czechia, 13.9 d before; 90' Czechia, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Inter

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Shakhtar Donetsk +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (H Club Brugge KV) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAA AS RomaD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctSAH ParmaW 3–0counted as workload
  • Tue 13 OctUCLH Club Brugge KVNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Shakhtar Donetsk+4.1 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAH Fiorentina+7.8 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAA Venezia+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 6 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79 CONFIRMED

Inter: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. ThuramF6161—
H. MkhitaryanM9090—
H. ÇalhanoğluM6161—
P. Sučić · regularM9016046' Croatia, 14 d before; 24' Croatia, 10.9 d before
Y. Bisseck · regularD9090—
B. PavardD9090—
Josep Martínez · regularG90900' Spain, 13.9 d before; 0' Spain, 10.9 d before
Carlos AugustoD9090—
A. Diouf · regularM7316390' France, 11.9 d before
F. Dimarco · regularM7373—
F. EspositoF619534' Italy, 11.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 690 minutes — N. Barella (70' Italy, 11.9 d before); M. Akanji (90' Switzerland, 13.9 d before; 90' Switzerland, 10.9 d before); P. Zieliński (90' Poland, 11.9 d before); A. Stanković (66' Serbia, 12.9 d before); A. Bastoni (90' Italy, 11.9 d before); P. Sučić (46' Croatia, 14 d before; 24' Croatia, 10.9 d before); A. Diouf (90' France, 11.9 d before); F. Esposito (34' Italy, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Bologna23%19%16%
Draw23%24%23%
Inter54%58%61%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Bologna a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (23% vs 16%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bologna

  • Bologna: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 50%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • W2–1at Lecce11 Oct · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Torino19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Napoli13 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Sassuolo6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Atalanta31 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1v Lazio24 Aug · in model evidence

Inter

  • Inter: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.7 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • W3–0v Parma10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D2–2at AS Roma19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–3v Udinese14 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Napoli5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Cagliari30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W4–1v Monza22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more7%
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Both teams score55%

Bologna

Expected goals1.08
Scores at least once66%
Scores 2 or more29%
Clean sheet17%

Inter

Expected goals1.78
Scores at least once83%
Scores 2 or more53%
Clean sheet34%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 1st

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bologna

13th of 20 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L3 from 6 games · scored 5, conceded 7

Home W0 D2 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games WDLDL (most recent last)

Inter

1st of 20 · 16 pts · W5 D1 L0 from 6 games · scored 18, conceded 8

Home W4 D0 L0 (scored 15, conceded 6) · Away W1 D1 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games WDWWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner
Bologna to win (90 minutes)
23%
16%
YES on Bologna to WinBologna wins in 90 minutes
23%16¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 450 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Inter to win (90 minutes)
54%
61%
YES on Inter to WinInter wins in 90 minutes
54%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 16,733 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
23%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
23%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,117 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBologna or Inter wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
77%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,150 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Inter to WinBologna wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
46%40¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,928 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Bologna to WinInter wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
77%85¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,203 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 752 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
80%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
78%81¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
22%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,365 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
54%
57%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
54%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,222 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
46%44¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,365 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
32%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,413 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
68%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,365 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
16%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,413 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
84%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,171 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
7%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
93%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
55%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
55%58¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,491 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
45%45¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,021 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Winning margin
Bologna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Bologna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBologna wins by 2 goals or more
9%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 821 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Bologna to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsInter wins or the match is drawn, or Bologna wins by 1 goal · Bologna not by 2+ goals
91%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Bologna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Bologna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBologna wins by 3 goals or more
3%4¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Bologna to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsInter wins or the match is drawn, or Bologna wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bologna not by 3+ goals
97%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
36%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsInter wins by 2 goals or more
30%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,321 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Inter to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBologna wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 1 goal · Inter not by 2+ goals
70%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,120 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Inter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsInter wins by 3 goals or more
14%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
NO on Inter to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBologna wins or the match is drawn, or Inter wins by 2 goals or fewer · Inter not by 3+ goals
86%84¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 40 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 23.0% · draw 23.3% · away 53.7%
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.78
Bologna eligible matches
120 (119 with xG)
Inter eligible matches
120 (114 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
1198 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:58
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
  • xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
  • Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
  • evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Serie A; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
  • xG stored for 1184 of 1198 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 8% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's away probability is 7% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BolognaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctLecceaway2–11.55–1.27W
19 SeptTorinohome1–10.92–1.14D
13 SeptNapoliaway0–1—L
6 SeptSassuolohome2–21.88–1.62D
31 AugAtalantaaway0–11.05–0.15L
24 AugLaziohome0–11.78–0.63L
InterOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctParmahome3–02.50–0.51W
19 SeptAS Romaaway2–2—D
14 SeptUdinesehome5–3—W
5 SeptNapolihome3–2—W
30 AugCagliariaway1–0—W
22 AugMonzahome4–1—W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT17BFCINT-BTTS
54.9%56.5%−1.6 pts0.55 / 0.580.451,491 / 1,021Comparable
seen 30 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bologna to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC
23.0%15.5%+7.5 pts0.15 / 0.160.85450 / 3,203Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Inter to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-INT
53.7%61.0%−7.3 pts0.60 / 0.620.4016,733 / 4,928Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT17BFCINT-TIE
23.3%23.0%+0.3 pts0.22 / 0.240.789,117 / 2,150Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Bologna to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC2
8.6%5.5%+3.1 pts0.04 / 0.070.96821 / 26Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Bologna to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-BFC3
2.5%2.5%+0.0 pts0.01 / 0.040.9925 / 300Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Inter to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT2
30.0%35.5%−5.5 pts0.34 / 0.370.661,321 / 1,120Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Inter to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT17BFCINT-INT3
13.5%17.0%−3.5 pts0.16 / 0.180.84500 / 40Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-1
94.3%94.5%−0.2 pts0.94 / 0.950.062 / 752Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-2
77.8%79.5%−1.7 pts0.78 / 0.810.22500 / 1,365Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-3
54.4%57.5%−3.1 pts0.56 / 0.590.441,222 / 1,365Comparable
seen 30 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-4
32.1%35.5%−3.4 pts0.34 / 0.370.661,413 / 1,365Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-5
16.1%18.5%−2.4 pts0.17 / 0.200.831,413 / 1,171Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT17BFCINT-6
7.0%8.0%−1.0 pts0.07 / 0.090.93500 / 250Comparable
seen 30 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:02.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home18.5%17.4% – 19.7%20.0%5.001023.0%+4.5 pts
1x2:draw23.7%21.3% – 24.7%25.0%4.001023.3%−0.4 pts
1x2:away58.0%56.1% – 60.3%61.0%1.641053.7%−4.3 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:25.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.557.4%56.7% – 58.9%60.2%1.66754.4%−3.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.542.6%41.1% – 43.3%44.4%2.25745.6%+3.0 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:25.

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.64 · draw 4.00 · home 5.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.53 · draw 4.33 · home 5.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.62 · draw 3.90 · home 5.4511/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 1.55 · draw 3.78 · home 4.6411/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 1.65 · draw 3.75 · home 4.8011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 1.65 · draw 4.00 · home 4.7511/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.64 · draw 4.10 · home 5.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.69 · draw 4.12 · home 5.5511/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.65 · draw 3.95 · home 5.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.60 · draw 4.00 · home 5.0011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2211/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.66 · under 2.5 2.2411/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.72 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2711/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.1211/10/2026, 11:37:2511/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:02.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:09 (Last checked 1 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Bolognaok11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Interok11/10/2026, 11:37:14 (Last checked 10 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home23.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw23.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away53.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x46.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x277.0%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1276.7%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes54.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no45.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.577.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.522.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.554.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.545.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.532.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.567.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.516.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.583.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.593.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.566.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.533.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.529.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.570.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.583.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.516.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.553.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.547.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.526.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.573.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.510.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.589.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.52.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.597.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.58.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.591.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.523.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.577.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.546.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.553.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.570.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.530.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.586.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.513.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home30.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away70.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 569 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:02