Got%OnIt
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Serie A·Mon 12 Oct, 11:45 PDT

TorinovUdinese

Torino
39%
Draw
27%
Udinese
33%

Got%OnIt gives Torino a 39% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Torino and 1.2 for Udinese.
  • Torino won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 a game.
  • Udinese won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Torino are 15th of 20 after 5 games; Udinese are 14th.
  • Torino have won 1 and lost 3; Udinese have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Torino

  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May

Udinese

  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Torino win39.2%37.5%−1.7 pts
Draw27.4%26.8%−0.6 pts
Udinese win33.4%35.7%+2.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.33 and 1.20). Torino 1.33 · Udinese 1.20 · total 2.53 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Torino–Udinese)

  1. 1–113.1%
  2. 1–010.2%
  3. 0–19.3%
  4. 2–18.4%
  5. 0–08.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Torino

Expected goals
1.33
Scoring vs average
×1.01
Conceding vs average
×1.01

Udinese

Expected goals
1.20
Scoring vs average
×1.01
Conceding vs average
×1.01
  • Torino (home): expected to score ×1.01 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.01 the average.
  • Udinese (away): expected to score ×1.01 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.01 the average.
  • Recent 378 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.31 home and 1.19 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.10).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Torino
119 matches (119 with xG)
Udinese
119 matches (118 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home39.2%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 33.2%
1x2:draw27.4%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 24.8%
1x2:away33.4%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 31.2%
double_chance:1x66.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x260.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1272.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes51.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no48.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.591.7%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.3%
total_goals:under:0.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.572.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 71.6%
total_goals:under:1.527.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.546.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 45.7%
total_goals:under:2.553.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.524.8%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.3%
total_goals:under:3.575.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.511.3%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 10.1%
total_goals:under:4.588.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.54.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 2.6%
total_goals:under:5.595.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.4%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.8%
team_total:home:under:0.526.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.538.2%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.6%
team_total:home:under:1.561.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.514.9%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.4%
team_total:home:under:2.585.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.7%
team_total:home:under:3.595.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.569.9%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 69.3%
team_total:away:under:0.530.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.533.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.2%
team_total:away:under:1.566.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.512.1%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 11.7%
team_total:away:under:2.587.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.53.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.0%
team_total:away:under:3.596.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.56.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.5%
spread:away:+2.593.6%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.3%
spread:home:-1.518.0%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.0%
spread:away:+1.582.0%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.5%
spread:home:-0.539.2%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.3%
spread:away:+0.560.8%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 60.1%
spread:home:+0.566.6%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 66.0%
spread:away:-0.533.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.1%
spread:home:+1.585.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 85.4%
spread:away:-1.514.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.4%
spread:home:+2.595.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home54.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away46.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.18 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7990919093069108577 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.15 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Torino win39.2%39.6% ± 0.2+0.41 pts
Draw27.4%26.6% ± 0.1−0.85 pts
Udinese win33.4%33.8% ± 0.1+0.44 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.18 pts (1x2:draw); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Torino
30.1% ± 0.1 (exact 30.1%)
Udinese
26.5% ± 0.1 (exact 26.6%)

Goal difference (Torino minus Udinese)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.9% ± 0.0
  4. -33.4% ± 0.1
  5. -29.5% ± 0.1
  6. -119.7% ± 0.1
  7. 026.6% ± 0.1
  8. 121.6% ± 0.1
  9. 211.5% ± 0.1
  10. 34.6% ± 0.1
  11. 41.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.3% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Torino 1–1 Udinese12.5% ± 0.113.1%
Torino 1–0 Udinese10.7% ± 0.110.2%
Torino 0–1 Udinese9.6% ± 0.19.3%
Torino 2–1 Udinese8.5% ± 0.18.4%
Torino 0–0 Udinese7.9% ± 0.18.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Torino
mean 1.33 · variance 1.33 · ± 0.004
Udinese
mean 1.20 · variance 1.21 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by +0.7 pts (to 28.2%). Expected goals move −0.10 for Torino and −0.10 for Udinese.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Torino win39.2%39.0%−0.2 pts
Draw27.4%28.2%+0.7 pts
Udinese win33.4%32.9%−0.5 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.201.22 – 1.10−0.10 / −0.10

Data labels: CONFIRMED 115 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Torino

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · 15.6% of goals share out

  • P. Pellegri Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • F. Israel G Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Adams F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 19.1% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • C. Casadei M Questionable (Rest) · share 12.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Lucas Perri)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Udinese

Attack ×0.91 band 0.87–0.96 ESTIMATED · 17.3% of goals share out

  • N. Zaniolo M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 7.9% · effect −7.9% REPORTED
  • J. Piotrowski M Missing Fixture (Heart Problems) · share 4.4% · effect −4.4% REPORTED
  • I. Gueye F Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 5.0% · effect −5.0% REPORTED
  • J. Arizala M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Palma D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Okoye)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move torino win by +1.5 pts (to 40.7%). Expected goals move +0.03 for Torino and −0.02 for Udinese.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Torino win39.2%40.7%+1.5 pts
Draw27.4%26.7%−0.7 pts
Udinese win33.4%32.6%−0.8 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.201.35 – 1.18+0.03 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 115 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Torino rate ×1.02 band 0.68–1.56

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8373737373737373 · contribution -0.014 (-0.073 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.9454545454545454 · contribution 0.007 (-0.063 to 0.079) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Udinese rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.45

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.9454545454545454 · contribution -0.015 (-0.082 to 0.030) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8373737373737373 · contribution 0.006 (-0.056 to 0.070) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move udinese win by −1.5 pts (to 31.8%). Expected goals move −0.08 for Torino and −0.12 for Udinese.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Torino win39.2%40.1%+0.9 pts
Draw27.4%28.1%+0.6 pts
Udinese win33.4%31.8%−1.5 pts
Expected goals1.33 – 1.201.25 – 1.08−0.08 / −0.12

Data labels: CONFIRMED 115 · REPORTED 9 · ESTIMATED 60 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Torino

Attack ×0.92 band 0.88–0.96 ESTIMATED · 15.6% of goals share out

  • P. Pellegri Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • F. Israel G Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • C. Adams F Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 19.1% · effect −9.6% REPORTED
  • C. Casadei M Questionable (Rest) · share 12.1% · effect −6.1% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Lucas Perri)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Udinese

Attack ×0.91 band 0.87–0.96 ESTIMATED · 17.3% of goals share out

  • N. Zaniolo M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 7.9% · effect −7.9% REPORTED
  • J. Piotrowski M Missing Fixture (Heart Problems) · share 4.4% · effect −4.4% REPORTED
  • I. Gueye F Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 5.0% · effect −5.0% REPORTED
  • J. Arizala M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Palma D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Okoye)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Torino rate ×1.02 band 0.68–1.56

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8373737373737373 · contribution -0.014 (-0.073 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.9454545454545454 · contribution 0.007 (-0.063 to 0.079) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Udinese rate ×0.98 band 0.66–1.45

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.9454545454545454 · contribution -0.015 (-0.082 to 0.030) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.8373737373737373 · contribution 0.006 (-0.056 to 0.070) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Torino win39.2%39.5%+0.3 pts
Draw27.4%26.8%−0.7 pts
Udinese win33.4%33.7%+0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.32 – 1.20−0.00 / −0.00

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 529 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)G. Simeone 26% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Torino

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 72% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Simeone F26.3% ± 0.13.8% ± 0.10.31 ± 0.00286%
N. Vlasic F21.3% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00289%
C. Adams F7.7% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00124%
C. Casadei M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00113%
P. Comuzzo D3.1% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00166%
D. Zapata F2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.0019%
R. Mandragora M2.8% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00155%
E. Ilkhan M2.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0009%

Udinese

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
K. Davis F17.0% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00190%
J. Ekkelenkamp M14.6% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00177%
H. Kamara M6.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00184%
J. Karlstrom M5.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.001100%
O. Solet D4.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00160%
J. Abankwah D3.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00177%
C. Kabasele D3.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00160%
V. Bayo F2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00012%

Run 943 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 438, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-12T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Udinese)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Torino)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Serie A matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationTorino 23 d rest · Udinese 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Torino

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Parma +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptSAH AS RomaL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptSAA BolognaD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Mon 19 OctSAA Parma+7 d
  • Fri 23 OctSAH Monza+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 24 in the squad); 46 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 5 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 14.6 CONFIRMED

Torino: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
R. MandragoraM000' Italy, 14 d before
Lucas PerriG00—
D. BragancaM00—
E. ComertD000' Switzerland, 13 d before; 0' Switzerland, 9 d before; 0' Switzerland, 6 d before
A. IsmajliD9027090' Albania, 13 d before; 90' Albania, 9.2 d before; 90' Albania, 6 d before
N. FortiniM00—
A. CacciamaniM00—
G. Simeone · regularF00—
N. Vlasic · regularF711150' Croatia, 13 d before; 44' Croatia, 9.1 d before; 71' Croatia, 6 d before
S. Coco · regularD00—
K. Fitz-JimM00—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 733 minutes — A. Ismajli (90' Albania, 13 d before; 90' Albania, 9.2 d before; 90' Albania, 6 d before); G. Gineitis (90' Lithuania, 8.2 d before); N. Vlasic (0' Croatia, 13 d before; 44' Croatia, 9.1 d before; 71' Croatia, 6 d before); R. Rodriguez (62' Switzerland, 13 d before; 67' Switzerland, 9 d before; 70' Switzerland, 6 d before); N. Patterson (59' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 9 d before; 0' Scotland, 6 d before) CONFIRMED

Udinese

23.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Lecce +5.7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Mon 14 SeptSAA InterL 3–5counted as workload
  • Sat 19 SeptSAH CagliariL 0–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctSAH Lecce+5.7 d
  • Sun 25 OctSAH AC Milan+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Solet (D) — reason unknown; J. Piotrowski (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 4.9 CONFIRMED

Udinese: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
K. Davis · regularF00—
H. Kamara · regularM00—
L. MillerM000' Scotland, 13 d before; 0' Scotland, 9 d before; 0' Scotland, 6 d before
M. Vojvoda · regularM018090' Kosovo, 11 d before; 90' Kosovo, 8.1 d before
C. KabaseleD00—
J. Ekkelenkamp · regularF00—
J. AbankwahD07575' Rep. Of Ireland, 11 d before
M. Okoye · regularG00—
E. EbosseD00—
J. Karlstrom · regularM541451' Sweden, 14 d before; 90' Sweden, 10 d before; 54' Sweden, 7 d before
N. ZanioloF00—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 636 minutes — M. Vojvoda (90' Kosovo, 11 d before; 90' Kosovo, 8.1 d before); S. Lovric (71' Slovenia, 13 d before; 64' Slovenia, 9 d before; 0' Slovenia, 6 d before); J. Abankwah (75' Rep. Of Ireland, 11 d before); J. Karlstrom (1' Sweden, 14 d before; 90' Sweden, 10 d before; 54' Sweden, 7 d before); G. Chakvetadze (76' Georgia, 10 d before; 25' Georgia, 7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Torino

  • C. Adams · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • C. Casadei · injury / absence: Rest · Questionable
  • F. Israel · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Missing Fixture
  • P. Pellegri · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture

Udinese

  • I. Gueye · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Arizala · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Questionable
  • J. Piotrowski · injury / absence: Heart Problems · Missing Fixture
  • M. Palma · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Questionable
  • N. Zaniolo · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Torino39%41%40%
Draw27%30%31%
Udinese33%30%28%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 24 h before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 18 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Torino

  • Torino: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.7 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D1–1at Bologna19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–2v AS Roma14 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Fiorentina5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Sassuolo29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–2v AC Milan23 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Juventus24 May · in model evidence

Udinese

  • Udinese: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals8%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more4%
Over 1.572%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Both teams score52%

Torino

Expected goals1.33
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet30%

Udinese

Expected goals1.20
Scores at least once70%
Scores 2 or more34%
Clean sheet27%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability9 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

9 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Torino

  • C. AdamsDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • C. CasadeiDoubtfulRest
  • F. IsraelOutShoulder Injury
  • P. PellegriOutKnee Injury

Udinese

  • I. GueyeOutAnkle Injury
  • J. ArizalaDoubtfulThigh Injury
  • J. PiotrowskiOutHeart Problems
  • M. PalmaDoubtfulMuscle Injury
  • N. ZanioloOutThigh Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season15th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Torino

15th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 5, conceded 8

Home W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DLWLL (most recent last)

Udinese

14th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 6, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 42 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Torino to win39.2%39.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 41¢
Draw27.4%26.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 31¢
Udinese to win33.4%33.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Double chance
Torino or draw limited evidence66.6%66.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Udinese or draw limited evidence60.8%60.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 61¢
Not a draw limited evidence72.6%73.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
Draw no bet
Torino to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence54.0%54.0% ± 0.2no
Udinese to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence46.0%46.0% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence91.7%92.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 91¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence8.3%7.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 10¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence72.2%71.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence27.8%28.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 30¢
Over 2.5 goals in total46.3%46.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 45¢
Under 2.5 goals in total53.7%53.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 56¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence24.8%24.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence75.2%75.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence11.3%11.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence88.7%88.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence4.4%4.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 4¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence95.6%95.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence51.7%51.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence48.3%48.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Team goals
Torino over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.4%73.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 76¢
Torino under 0.5 goals limited evidence26.6%26.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Torino over 1.5 goals limited evidence38.2%38.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢
Torino under 1.5 goals limited evidence61.8%61.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 63¢
Torino over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.9%14.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Torino under 2.5 goals limited evidence85.1%85.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Torino over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.6%4.6% ± 0.1no
Torino under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.4%95.4% ± 0.1no
Udinese over 0.5 goals limited evidence69.9%69.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 69¢
Udinese under 0.5 goals limited evidence30.1%30.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 33¢
Udinese over 1.5 goals limited evidence33.8%33.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Udinese under 1.5 goals limited evidence66.2%66.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Udinese over 2.5 goals limited evidence12.1%12.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Udinese under 2.5 goals limited evidence87.9%87.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Udinese over 3.5 goals limited evidence3.4%3.4% ± 0.1no
Udinese under 3.5 goals limited evidence96.6%96.6% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Torino to win by 3 or more limited evidence6.4%6.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Torino to win by 2 or more limited evidence18.0%18.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Torino to win by 1 or more limited evidence39.2%39.6% ± 0.2no
Torino not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence66.6%66.2% ± 0.1no
Torino not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.9%85.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Torino not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.4%95.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Udinese to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.6%4.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 4¢
Udinese to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.1%14.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Udinese to win by 1 or more limited evidence33.4%33.8% ± 0.1no
Udinese not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence60.8%60.4% ± 0.2no
Udinese not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence82.0%82.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 83¢
Udinese not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.6%93.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Clean sheet
Torino clean sheet grid30.1%30.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 33¢
Udinese clean sheet grid26.6%26.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 26¢
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—26.6% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 1—21.6% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 2—11.5% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 3—4.6% ± 0.1not listed
Torino by exactly 4—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Torino by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Udinese by exactly 1—19.7% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 2—9.5% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 3—3.4% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Udinese by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Torino by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Udinese by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Torino 1–1 Udinese—12.5% ± 0.1not listed
Torino 1–0 Udinese—10.7% ± 0.1not listed
Torino 0–1 Udinese—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Torino 2–1 Udinese—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
Torino 0–0 Udinese—7.9% ± 0.1not listed

Torino v Udinese: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Draw (90 minutes)
27%
31%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 8,268 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Torino to win (90 minutes)
39%
40%
YES on Torino to WinTorino wins in 90 minutes
39%41¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 61,236 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Udinese to win (90 minutes)
33%
28%
YES on Udinese to WinUdinese wins in 90 minutes
33%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 21,999 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawTorino or Udinese wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 24,681 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to WinTorino wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
67%72¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 18,214 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino to WinUdinese wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
61%61¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 32,906 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
92%
91%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
92%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 109 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
8%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,846 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
72%
71%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
72%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,231 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
28%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 9,872 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
46%
45%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
46%45¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 29,332 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
54%56¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 129 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
25%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,218 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
75%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,859 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
11%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 6,009 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
89%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,128 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
4%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
96%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 32,200 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
52%
53%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
52%53¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 15,427 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
48%48¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 411 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Winning margin
Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
18%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsTorino wins by 2 goals or more
18%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 949 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 1 goal · Torino not by 2+ goals
82%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 13,361 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsTorino wins by 3 goals or more
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,660 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Torino wins by 2 goals or fewer · Torino not by 3+ goals
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,267 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 2 goals or more
14%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 848 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsTorino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal · Udinese not by 2+ goals
86%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 13,208 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 3 goals or more
5%4¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,122 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsTorino wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer · Udinese not by 3+ goals
95%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 69,733 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Team goals
Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
73%
75%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 0.5 GoalsTorino scores 1 goal or more
73%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino Over 0.5 GoalsTorino does not score · Torino under 0.5 goals
27%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,001 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
38%
38%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 1.5 GoalsTorino scores 2 goals or more
38%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino Over 1.5 GoalsTorino scores 1 goal or fewer · Torino under 1.5 goals
62%63¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,178 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Torino Over 2.5 GoalsTorino scores 3 goals or more
15%15¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Torino Over 2.5 GoalsTorino scores 2 goals or fewer · Torino under 2.5 goals
85%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,525 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
70%
68%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 0.5 GoalsUdinese scores 1 goal or more
70%69¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese Over 0.5 GoalsUdinese does not score · Udinese under 0.5 goals
30%33¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,032 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
34%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 1.5 GoalsUdinese scores 2 goals or more
34%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,000 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese Over 1.5 GoalsUdinese scores 1 goal or fewer · Udinese under 1.5 goals
66%71¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 392 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese Over 2.5 GoalsUdinese scores 3 goals or more
12%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 501 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese Over 2.5 GoalsUdinese scores 2 goals or fewer · Udinese under 2.5 goals
88%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 39.2% · draw 27.4% · away 33.4%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Torino eligible matches
119 (119 with xG)
Udinese eligible matches
119 (118 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

TorinoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptBolognaaway1–11.14–0.92D
14 SeptAS Romahome0–20.86–1.85L
5 SeptFiorentinaaway2–10.58–1.67W
29 AugSassuoloaway1–21.26–1.85L
23 AugAC Milanhome1–21.29–2.15L
24 MayJuventushome2–20.85–1.92D
UdineseOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptCagliarihome0–12.13–1.12L
14 SeptInteraway3–5—L
7 SeptLaziohome1–20.85–1.83L
29 AugMonzaaway3–20.98–1.70W
22 AugComohome1–12.14–1.50D
24 MayNapoliaway0–10.37–1.76L

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT12TORUDI-BTTS
51.7%52.5%−0.8 pts0.52 / 0.530.4815,427 / 411Comparable
seen 18 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TIE
27.4%30.5%−3.1 pts0.30 / 0.310.708,268 / 24,681Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR
39.2%40.0%−0.8 pts0.39 / 0.410.6161,236 / 32,906Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI
33.4%28.5%+4.9 pts0.28 / 0.290.7221,999 / 18,214Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2
18.0%17.5%+0.5 pts0.17 / 0.180.83949 / 13,361Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3
6.4%6.5%−0.1 pts0.06 / 0.070.944,660 / 1,267Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2
14.1%10.5%+3.6 pts0.10 / 0.110.90848 / 13,208Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3
4.6%3.0%+1.6 pts0.02 / 0.040.982,122 / 69,733Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Team goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Torino over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR1
73.4%75.0%−1.6 pts0.74 / 0.760.261,500 / 1,001Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR2
38.2%38.0%+0.2 pts0.37 / 0.390.631,000 / 1,178Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Torino over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-TOR3
14.9%14.0%+0.9 pts0.13 / 0.150.871 / 2,525Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI1
69.9%68.0%+1.9 pts0.67 / 0.690.331,000 / 2,032Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI2
33.8%29.5%+4.3 pts0.29 / 0.300.711,000 / 392Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATEAMTOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-UDI3
12.1%10.0%+2.1 pts0.09 / 0.110.91501 / 25Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-1
91.7%90.5%+1.2 pts0.90 / 0.910.10109 / 9,846Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-2
72.2%70.5%+1.7 pts0.70 / 0.710.302,231 / 9,872Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-3
46.3%44.5%+1.8 pts0.44 / 0.450.5629,332 / 129Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-4
24.8%23.0%+1.8 pts0.22 / 0.240.784,218 / 5,859Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-5
11.3%10.0%+1.3 pts0.09 / 0.110.916,009 / 5,128Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT12TORUDI-6
4.4%3.5%+0.9 pts0.03 / 0.040.97500 / 32,200Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:09:02.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home40.7%37.5% – 41.3%42.6%2.351039.2%−1.4 pts
1x2:draw29.8%28.6% – 30.8%31.0%3.231027.4%−2.4 pts
1x2:away29.6%29.1% – 32.3%31.0%3.231033.4%+3.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:22.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.545.0%44.1% – 46.1%46.7%2.14846.3%+1.3 pts
total_goals:under:2.555.0%53.9% – 55.9%57.8%1.73853.7%−1.3 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:22.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.10 · home 2.4011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.33 · draw 3.26 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.74 · draw 2.92 · home 2.3611/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.10 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 3.25 · draw 3.10 · home 2.3511/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.20 · home 2.4111/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.35 · draw 3.35 · home 2.3911/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.20 · draw 3.25 · home 2.3211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.10 · draw 3.30 · home 2.3011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.7211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.15 · under 2.5 1.7611/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.13 · under 2.5 1.7411/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.22 · under 2.5 1.7711/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.18 · under 2.5 1.7211/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.99 · under 2.5 1.7011/10/2026, 11:37:2211/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:09:02.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:51 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Torinook11/10/2026, 11:37:13 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Udineseok11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home39.2%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away33.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x66.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x260.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1272.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes51.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no48.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.572.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.527.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.546.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.553.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.524.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.575.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.511.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.588.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.585.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.569.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.530.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.533.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.566.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.512.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.587.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.53.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.596.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.518.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.582.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.539.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.560.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.566.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.533.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.585.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.514.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home54.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away46.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 438 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:09:02