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Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

FC Schalke 04vFSV Mainz 05

FC Schalke 04
37%
Draw
27%
FSV Mainz 05
36%

Got%OnIt gives FC Schalke 04 a 37% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 5 Bundesliga matches for FC Schalke 04, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.3 for FSV Mainz 05.
  • FC Schalke 04 won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.
  • FSV Mainz 05 won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 5 Bundesliga matches for FC Schalke 04, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • FC Schalke 04 are 12th of 18 after 4 games; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th.
  • FC Schalke 04 have won 1 and lost 1; FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

FC Schalke 04

  • L1–2at SC Freiburg11 Oct
  • D0–0v SV Elversberg20 Sept
  • W3–1at Union Berlin11 Sept
  • D0–0v Bayern München5 Sept
  • L0–3at FC Augsburg30 Aug

FSV Mainz 05

  • L3–4v Bayer Leverkusen10 Oct
  • W4–3at Borussia Mönchengladbach19 Sept
  • L1–3v Eintracht Frankfurt12 Sept
  • W5–0at Hamburger SV6 Sept
  • D0–0v SC Paderborn 0729 Aug
  • W2–0at 1. FC Heidenheim16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%38.0%+0.8 pts
Draw27.1%29.2%+2.1 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%32.8%−2.9 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.31 and 1.28). FC Schalke 04 1.31 · FSV Mainz 05 1.28 · total 2.59 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (FC Schalke 04–FSV Mainz 05)

  1. 1–112.9%
  2. 1–09.5%
  3. 0–19.3%
  4. 2–18.2%
  5. 1–28.0%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

FC Schalke 04

Expected goals
1.31
Scoring vs average
×0.70
Conceding vs average
×0.89

FSV Mainz 05

Expected goals
1.28
Scoring vs average
×0.89
Conceding vs average
×0.70
  • FC Schalke 04 (home): expected to score ×0.70 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.89 the average.
  • FSV Mainz 05 (away): expected to score ×0.89 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.70 the average.
  • Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

FC Schalke 04
5 matches (5 with xG)
FSV Mainz 05
117 matches (117 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home37.1%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 31.1%
1x2:draw27.1%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 24.5%
1x2:away35.7%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 34.2%
double_chance:1x64.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x262.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1272.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes53.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no47.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.592.1%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.8%
total_goals:under:0.57.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.573.3%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.7%
total_goals:under:1.526.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.547.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 47.1%
total_goals:under:2.552.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.526.1%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 25.5%
total_goals:under:3.573.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.512.1%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 11.0%
total_goals:under:4.587.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.54.8%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 4.1%
total_goals:under:5.595.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.0%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.4%
team_total:home:under:0.527.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.537.6%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.0%
team_total:home:under:1.562.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.514.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.0%
team_total:home:under:2.585.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.4%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.5%
team_total:home:under:3.595.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.572.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 71.5%
team_total:away:under:0.527.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.536.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 35.9%
team_total:away:under:1.563.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.513.8%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.3%
team_total:away:under:2.586.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.54.1%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.7%
team_total:away:under:3.595.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.55.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.0%
spread:away:+2.594.1%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.8%
spread:home:-1.516.7%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.8%
spread:away:+1.583.3%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 82.8%
spread:home:-0.537.1%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 35.3%
spread:away:+0.562.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 62.2%
spread:home:+0.564.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.6%
spread:away:-0.535.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 34.5%
spread:home:+1.584.2%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.7%
spread:away:-1.515.8%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.0%
spread:home:+2.594.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.55.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home51.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away49.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.11 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7455721874610357734 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%37.4% ± 0.2+0.31 pts
Draw27.1%26.4% ± 0.1−0.69 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%36.1% ± 0.2+0.39 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.11 pts (total_goals:over:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

FC Schalke 04
27.8% ± 0.1 (exact 27.9%)
FSV Mainz 05
27.0% ± 0.1 (exact 27.0%)

Goal difference (FC Schalke 04 minus FSV Mainz 05)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.3% ± 0.0
  3. -41.2% ± 0.0
  4. -33.9% ± 0.1
  5. -210.4% ± 0.1
  6. -120.3% ± 0.1
  7. 026.4% ± 0.1
  8. 120.8% ± 0.1
  9. 210.8% ± 0.1
  10. 34.2% ± 0.1
  11. 41.3% ± 0.0
  12. 50.3% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 0512.6% ± 0.112.9%
FC Schalke 04 1–0 FSV Mainz 059.9% ± 0.19.5%
FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 059.6% ± 0.19.3%
FC Schalke 04 2–1 FSV Mainz 058.2% ± 0.18.2%
FC Schalke 04 1–2 FSV Mainz 058.1% ± 0.18.0%

Expected goals (simulated)

FC Schalke 04
mean 1.31 · variance 1.30 · ± 0.004
FSV Mainz 05
mean 1.28 · variance 1.27 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 26.5%). Expected goals move +0.00 for FC Schalke 04 and +0.00 for FSV Mainz 05.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%37.5%+0.3 pts
Draw27.1%26.5%−0.7 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%36.1%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.31 – 1.281.31 – 1.28+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

FC Schalke 04

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: D. LjubicicESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Karius)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

FSV Mainz 05

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: R. Zentner, O. RuoppiESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Schwolow)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move fc schalke 04 win by +1.0 pts (to 38.1%). Expected goals move +0.01 for FC Schalke 04 and −0.02 for FSV Mainz 05.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%38.1%+1.0 pts
Draw27.1%26.5%−0.6 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%35.4%−0.3 pts
Expected goals1.31 – 1.281.32 – 1.26+0.01 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

FC Schalke 04 rate ×1.01 band 0.84–1.24

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07575757575757569 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0828282828282828 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

FSV Mainz 05 rate ×0.99 band 0.82–1.19

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0828282828282828 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07575757575757569 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move fc schalke 04 win by +1.0 pts (to 38.1%). Expected goals move +0.01 for FC Schalke 04 and −0.02 for FSV Mainz 05.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%38.1%+1.0 pts
Draw27.1%26.5%−0.6 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%35.4%−0.3 pts
Expected goals1.31 – 1.281.32 – 1.26+0.01 / −0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 80 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 48 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 9 h before as-of.

FC Schalke 04

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: D. LjubicicESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Karius)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

FSV Mainz 05

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: R. Zentner, O. RuoppiESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice A. Schwolow)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

FC Schalke 04 rate ×1.01 band 0.84–1.24

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07575757575757569 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0828282828282828 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

FSV Mainz 05 rate ×0.99 band 0.82–1.19

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0828282828282828 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07575757575757569 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
FC Schalke 04 win37.1%37.1%−0.0 pts
Draw27.1%26.0%−1.1 pts
FSV Mainz 05 win35.7%36.8%+1.1 pts
Expected goals—1.33 – 1.33+0.02 / +0.05

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 555 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)P. Tietz 27% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

FC Schalke 04

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
J. Adamu F18.2% ± 0.11.8% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00152%
R. Gosens D17.9% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00175%
M. Sylla F17.0% ± 0.11.6% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00164%
E. Dzeko F16.6% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00120%
A. Aouchiche M16.3% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00168%
K. Karaman F15.8% ± 0.11.3% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.00168%
M. Wöber D9.5% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00125%
D. Ljubicic M8.7% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00148%

FSV Mainz 05

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
P. Tietz F27.4% ± 0.14.1% ± 0.10.32 ± 0.002100%
N. Amiri M23.8% ± 0.13.1% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.002100%
S. Becker F12.0% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.001100%
Lee Jae-Sung M5.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00160%
P. Mwene M4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
A. Caci D4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00187%
S. Posch D3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00184%
D. da Costa D3.0% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00128%

Run 974 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 469, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (FSV Mainz 05)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (FC Schalke 04)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationFC Schalke 04 6 d rest · FSV Mainz 05 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:07 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

FC Schalke 04

5.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A 1. FC Köln +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptBLH SV ElversbergD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctBLA SC FreiburgL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA 1. FC Köln+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA Dynamo Dresden+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 7 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 4 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.2 CONFIRMED

FC Schalke 04: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Katić · regularD9018090' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before
J. AdamuF69690' Austria, 12.9 d before
S. El-Faouzi · regularM9090—
L. Karius · regularG9090—
R. GosensM9090—
K. KaramanM9090—
H. Kuruçay · regularD9090—
M. SyllaM7979—
S. TanakaM6969—
M. WöberD799213' Austria, 12.9 d before
A. GantenbeinM7979—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 103 minutes — N. Katić (90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11.8 d before); M. Wöber (13' Austria, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

FSV Mainz 05

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H Werder Bremen +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLA Borussia MönchengladbachW 4–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLH Bayer LeverkusenL 3–4counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLH Werder Bremen+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA VfL Bochum+10.2 d
  • Fri 30 OctBLA SV Elversberg+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 49 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Kohr (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.5 CONFIRMED

FSV Mainz 05: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. SchwolowG9090—
A. Caci · regularM7070—
E. MartelM7070—
S. Becker · regularF7777—
P. Tietz · regularF9090—
P. Mwene · regularM90900' Austria, 12.9 d before
N. Amiri · regularM9090—
S. Posch · regularD9018090' Austria, 12.9 d before
F. GruberD9090—
K. PotulskiD70700' Poland, 11.8 d before
K. Sano · regularM8181—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — S. Posch (90' Austria, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
FC Schalke 0437%33%33%
Draw27%26%26%
FSV Mainz 0536%40%42%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 26 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives FSV Mainz 05 a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (36% vs 42%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

FC Schalke 04

  • FC Schalke 04: 10 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 2.1 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • L1–2at SC Freiburg11 Oct · in model evidence
  • D0–0v SV Elversberg20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at Union Berlin11 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Bayern München5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at FC Augsburg30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L2–4at RB Leipzig27 May · not in model evidence

FSV Mainz 05

  • FSV Mainz 05: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.2 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L3–4v Bayer Leverkusen10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W4–3at Borussia Mönchengladbach19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Eintracht Frankfurt12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W5–0at Hamburger SV6 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v SC Paderborn 0729 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0at 1. FC Heidenheim16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals8%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more5%
Over 1.573%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.526%
Both teams score53%

FC Schalke 04

Expected goals1.31
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet28%

FSV Mainz 05

Expected goals1.28
Scores at least once72%
Scores 2 or more37%
Clean sheet27%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season12th v 8th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

FC Schalke 04

12th of 18 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L1 from 4 games · scored 3, conceded 4

Home W0 D2 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 3, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 3 in 4 games

Last five league games DWDL (most recent last)

FSV Mainz 05

8th of 18 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L2 from 5 games · scored 13, conceded 10

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7) · Away W2 D0 L0 (scored 9, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LWLWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
FC Schalke 04 to win37.1%37.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 34¢
Draw27.1%26.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
FSV Mainz 05 to win35.7%36.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 43¢
Double chance
FC Schalke 04 or draw limited evidence64.3%63.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 60¢
FSV Mainz 05 or draw limited evidence62.9%62.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 69¢
Not a draw limited evidence72.9%73.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Draw no bet
FC Schalke 04 to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence51.0%50.9% ± 0.2no
FSV Mainz 05 to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence49.0%49.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence92.1%92.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence7.9%7.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence73.3%73.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 83¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence26.7%26.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 19¢
Over 2.5 goals in total47.8%47.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 62¢
Under 2.5 goals in total52.2%52.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 41¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence26.1%26.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 40¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence73.9%73.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 62¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence12.1%12.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence87.9%88.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 80¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence4.8%4.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence95.2%95.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence53.0%52.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence47.0%47.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 39¢
Team goals
FC Schalke 04 over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.0%73.0% ± 0.1no
FC Schalke 04 under 0.5 goals limited evidence27.0%27.0% ± 0.1no
FC Schalke 04 over 1.5 goals limited evidence37.6%37.6% ± 0.2no
FC Schalke 04 under 1.5 goals limited evidence62.4%62.4% ± 0.2no
FC Schalke 04 over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.5%14.5% ± 0.1no
FC Schalke 04 under 2.5 goals limited evidence85.5%85.5% ± 0.1no
FC Schalke 04 over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.4%4.4% ± 0.1no
FC Schalke 04 under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.6%95.6% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 over 0.5 goals limited evidence72.1%72.2% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 under 0.5 goals limited evidence27.9%27.8% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 goals limited evidence36.5%36.6% ± 0.2no
FSV Mainz 05 under 1.5 goals limited evidence63.5%63.4% ± 0.2no
FSV Mainz 05 over 2.5 goals limited evidence13.8%13.8% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 under 2.5 goals limited evidence86.2%86.2% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.1%4.1% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.9%95.9% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
FC Schalke 04 to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.9%5.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
FC Schalke 04 to win by 2 or more limited evidence16.7%16.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
FC Schalke 04 to win by 1 or more limited evidence37.1%37.4% ± 0.2no
FC Schalke 04 not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence64.3%63.9% ± 0.2no
FC Schalke 04 not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence84.2%84.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 80¢
FC Schalke 04 not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.6%94.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
FSV Mainz 05 to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.4%5.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
FSV Mainz 05 to win by 2 or more limited evidence15.8%15.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
FSV Mainz 05 to win by 1 or more limited evidence35.7%36.1% ± 0.2no
FSV Mainz 05 not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence62.9%62.6% ± 0.2no
FSV Mainz 05 not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence83.3%83.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
FSV Mainz 05 not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.1%94.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Clean sheet
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet grid27.9%27.8% ± 0.1no
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet grid27.0%27.0% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—26.4% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 by exactly 1—20.8% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 by exactly 2—10.8% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 by exactly 3—4.2% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 by exactly 4—1.3% ± 0.0not listed
FC Schalke 04 by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by exactly 1—20.3% ± 0.1not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by exactly 2—10.4% ± 0.1not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by exactly 3—3.9% ± 0.1not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by exactly 4—1.2% ± 0.0not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
FC Schalke 04 by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
FSV Mainz 05 by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05—12.6% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 1–0 FSV Mainz 05—9.9% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 2–1 FSV Mainz 05—8.2% ± 0.1not listed
FC Schalke 04 1–2 FSV Mainz 05—8.1% ± 0.1not listed

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes)
36%
42%
YES on FSV Mainz 05 to WinFSV Mainz 05 wins in 90 minutes
36%43¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,272 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes)
37%
33%
YES on FC Schalke 04 to WinFC Schalke 04 wins in 90 minutes
37%34¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,762 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
27%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 432 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawFC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,796 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FSV Mainz 05 to WinFC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
64%60¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,468 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FC Schalke 04 to WinFSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
63%69¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 804 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
92%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
92%95¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
8%7¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 34 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
73%
82%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
73%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 407 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
27%19¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 407 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
48%
61%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
48%62¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,155 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
52%41¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 642 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
39%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
26%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 605 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
74%62¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 220 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
12%
21%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
12%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,355 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
88%80¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
5%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
95%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 641 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
53%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
53%63¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
47%39¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,999 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Winning margin
FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
21%
Limited evidence
YES on FSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFSV Mainz 05 wins by 2 goals or more
16%22¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn, or FSV Mainz 05 wins by 1 goal · FSV Mainz 05 not by 2+ goals
84%80¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 616 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on FSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFSV Mainz 05 wins by 3 goals or more
5%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,257 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FSV Mainz 05 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFC Schalke 04 wins or the match is drawn, or FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2 goals or fewer · FSV Mainz 05 not by 3+ goals
95%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 752 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
17%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on FC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFC Schalke 04 wins by 2 goals or more
17%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,257 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn, or FC Schalke 04 wins by 1 goal · FC Schalke 04 not by 2+ goals
83%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 661 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on FC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFC Schalke 04 wins by 3 goals or more
6%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,111 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on FC Schalke 04 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFSV Mainz 05 wins or the match is drawn, or FC Schalke 04 wins by 2 goals or fewer · FC Schalke 04 not by 3+ goals
94%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 835 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 37.1% · draw 27.1% · away 35.7%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.28
FC Schalke 04 eligible matches
5 (5 with xG)
FSV Mainz 05 eligible matches
117 (117 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • thin evidence: home side has 5 eligible matches
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

FC Schalke 04OpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctSC Freiburgaway1–20.32–1.07L
20 SeptSV Elversberghome0–01.01–1.01D
11 SeptUnion Berlinaway3–12.52–1.95W
5 SeptBayern Münchenhome0–00.21–1.94D
30 AugFC Augsburgaway0–32.10–3.72L
FSV Mainz 05OpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBayer Leverkusenhome3–42.91–1.68L
19 SeptBorussia Mönchengladbachaway4–32.82–3.24W
12 SeptEintracht Frankfurthome1–32.12–2.04L
6 SeptHamburger SVaway5–02.77–0.19W
29 AugSC Paderborn 07home0–01.23–0.73D
16 May1. FC Heidenheimaway2–03.71–2.53W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SCHM05-BTTS
53.0%62.0%−9.0 pts0.61 / 0.630.390 / 4,999Comparable
seen 26 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
FSV Mainz 05 to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-M05
35.7%41.5%−5.8 pts0.40 / 0.430.601,272 / 3,468Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
FC Schalke 04 to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH
37.1%32.5%+4.6 pts0.31 / 0.340.692,762 / 804Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SCHM05-TIE
27.1%25.5%+1.6 pts0.24 / 0.270.76432 / 1,796Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M052
15.8%21.0%−5.2 pts0.20 / 0.220.80850 / 616Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
FSV Mainz 05 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-M053
5.4%8.5%−3.1 pts0.07 / 0.100.931,257 / 752Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH2
16.7%14.5%+2.2 pts0.13 / 0.160.871,257 / 661Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
FC Schalke 04 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SCHM05-SCH3
5.9%6.0%−0.1 pts0.04 / 0.080.962,111 / 835Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-1
92.1%94.0%−1.9 pts0.93 / 0.950.072 / 34Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-2
73.3%82.0%−8.7 pts0.81 / 0.830.19407 / 407Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-3
47.8%60.5%−12.7 pts0.59 / 0.620.411,155 / 642Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-4
26.1%39.0%−12.9 pts0.38 / 0.400.62605 / 220Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-5
12.1%21.0%−8.9 pts0.20 / 0.220.801,355 / 3Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SCHM05-6
4.8%9.0%−4.2 pts0.08 / 0.100.92750 / 641Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:07:04.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home33.4%32.9% – 33.8%35.4%2.831037.1%+3.8 pts
1x2:draw26.3%25.2% – 27.1%27.8%3.601027.1%+0.8 pts
1x2:away40.4%39.8% – 41.5%43.0%2.331035.7%−4.7 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:18 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.559.3%58.7% – 59.6%62.1%1.61747.8%−11.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.540.7%40.4% – 41.3%42.6%2.35752.2%+11.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:18 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.38 · draw 3.60 · home 2.9011/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.70 · home 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.39 · draw 3.56 · home 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 2.19 · draw 3.34 · home 2.6711/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 2.30 · draw 3.40 · home 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 2.30 · draw 3.60 · home 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.36 · draw 3.65 · home 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.44 · draw 3.70 · home 2.9811/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.35 · draw 3.65 · home 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.25 · draw 3.50 · home 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.61 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.3611/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3011/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.66 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.62 · under 2.5 2.3711/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.2311/10/2026, 09:31:1811/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:07:04.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:07 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · FC Schalke 04ok11/10/2026, 01:39:23 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · FSV Mainz 05ok11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home37.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away35.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x64.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x262.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1272.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes53.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no47.0%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.592.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.57.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.573.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.526.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.547.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.552.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.526.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.573.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.512.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.587.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.527.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.537.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.562.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.585.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.572.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.527.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.536.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.563.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.513.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.586.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.54.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.55.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.594.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.516.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.583.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.537.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.562.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.564.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.535.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.584.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.515.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.594.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.55.4%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home51.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away49.0%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 469 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:07:04