Ligue 1·Sat 17 Oct, 11:45 PDT

Estac TroyesvLens

Estac Troyes

17%

Draw

19%

Lens

64%

Got%OnIt gives Lens a 64% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.

Worth knowing: Estac Troyes has little or no Ligue 1 history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Estac Troyes and 2.2 for Lens.
Estac Troyes won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.2 a game.
Lens won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

Estac Troyes has little or no Ligue 1 history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Estac Troyes are 16th of 18 after 5 games; Lens are 10th.
Estac Troyes have won 1 and lost 3; Lens have won 2 and lost 3.

Recent matches the model used

Estac Troyes

L0–2v Marseille11 Oct
L0–2at Angers19 Sept
L0–2at Lille13 Sept
L2–6v Strasbourg6 Sept
W2–1at Lorient29 Aug
D0–0v Paris FC22 Aug

Lens

W2–1v Lyon9 Oct
L1–2at Monaco18 Sept
D2–2at Le Mans13 Sept
L0–1v Lorient5 Sept
L1–2at Strasbourg29 Aug
W5–2v Auxerre22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 579, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Estac Troyes)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lens)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:39 PDT971 finished Ligue 1 matches (967 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T18:45:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationEstac Troyes 6 d rest · Lens 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Estac Troyes

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Toulouse +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptL1A AngersL 0–2counted as workload
Sun 11 OctL1H MarseilleL 0–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 24 OctL1A Toulouse+6.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 3 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.1 CONFIRMED

Estac Troyes: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
M. Diop · regular	M	78	78	—
D. Karim	M	78	78	—
J. Le Douaron	F	77	77	—
K. Diawara	M	69	69	—
M. Diaz	D	90	90	—
I. Gomis	M	61	61	—
A. Mille	M	90	90	—
P. Gozzi	D	90	90	—
P. Beach	G	90	90	—
L. Maronnier	D	90	90	—
A. Monfray · regular	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Lens

4.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Club Brugge KV +4 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League +4 d after (A Club Brugge KV) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Fri 18 SeptL1A MonacoL 1–2counted as workload
Fri 9 OctL1H LyonW 2–1counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLH Sporting CPNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLA Club Brugge KV+4 d
Sat 24 OctL1H Paris FC+7 d
Fri 30 OctL1A Lille+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Sima (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lens: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
R. Risser · regular	G	90	—
I. Ganiou · regular	D	90	—
Y. Titraoui	M	54	—
F. Sotoca	M	69	—
O. Édouard	F	69	—
F. Thauvin · regular	M	90	—
M. Udol · regular	M	90	—
M. Cuisance	M	83	—
R. Aguilar	M	90	—
K. Antonio · regular	D	90	—
J. Gradit	D	53	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 79 minutes — A. Bulatović (79' Montenegro, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Estac Troyes	17%	24%	23%
Draw	19%	24%	24%
Lens	64%	52%	53%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 30 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Lens a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (64% vs 52%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes: 10 finished matches (6 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.7 and conceded 2.1 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 40%.

L0–2v Marseille11 Oct · in model evidence
L0–2at Angers19 Sept · in model evidence
L0–2at Lille13 Sept · in model evidence
L2–6v Strasbourg6 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at Lorient29 Aug · in model evidence
D0–0v Paris FC22 Aug · in model evidence

Lens

Lens: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.7 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.

W2–1v Lyon9 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Monaco18 Sept · in model evidence
D2–2at Le Mans13 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1v Lorient5 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2at Strasbourg29 Aug · in model evidence
W5–2v Auxerre22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	12%
2 goals	20%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	12%
6 or more	12%
Over 1.5	84%
Over 2.5	64%
Over 3.5	42%
Both teams score	59%

Estac Troyes

Expected goals	1.07
Scores at least once	66%
Scores 2 or more	29%
Clean sheet	11%

Lens

Expected goals	2.23
Scores at least once	89%
Scores 2 or more	65%
Clean sheet	34%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season16th v 10th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Estac Troyes

16th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 4, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L1 (scored 2, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWD (most recent last)

Lens

10th of 18 · 7 pts · W2 D1 L3 from 6 games · scored 11, conceded 10

Home W2 D0 L1 (scored 7, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L2 (scored 4, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLDLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 10 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes)

17%

23%

YES on Estac Troyes to WinEstac Troyes wins in 90 minutes

17%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,266 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lens to win (90 minutes)

64%

53%

YES on Lens to WinLens wins in 90 minutes

64%53¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 417 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

19%

24%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

19%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,596 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawEstac Troyes or Lens wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

81%77¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 552 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Lens to WinEstac Troyes wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

36%48¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 853 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Estac Troyes to WinLens wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

83%78¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,586 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

95%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 601 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 873 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

84%

83%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

84%84¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,111 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

16%19¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 434 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

64%

61%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

64%62¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 908 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

36%41¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 913 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

42%

39%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

42%40¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,108 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

58%63¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 431 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

24%

21%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

24%22¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,104 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

76%81¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 431 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

12%

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

12%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,662 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

88%91¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 402 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

59%

61%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

59%62¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 4,611 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

41%41¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 3,420 contracts at the ask · quote 31 min old

Winning margin

Estac Troyes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

Limited evidence

YES on Estac Troyes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEstac Troyes wins by 2 goals or more

6%11¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,007 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Estac Troyes to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Estac Troyes wins by 1 goal · Estac Troyes not by 2+ goals

94%92¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,104 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Estac Troyes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Estac Troyes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEstac Troyes wins by 3 goals or more

2%6¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Estac Troyes to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Estac Troyes wins by 2 goals or fewer · Estac Troyes not by 3+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,951 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

41%

30%

Limited evidence

YES on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins by 2 goals or more

41%32¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,015 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEstac Troyes wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 1 goal · Lens not by 2+ goals

59%72¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 854 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

14%

Limited evidence

YES on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins by 3 goals or more

22%16¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,545 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

NO on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEstac Troyes wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lens not by 3+ goals

78%88¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 770 contracts at the ask · quote 30 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 17.0% · draw 19.4% · away 63.6%
Expected goals: 1.07 – 2.23
Estac Troyes eligible matches: 6 (5 with xG)
Lens eligible matches: 108 (108 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 971 by season 2023:306, 2024:306, 2025:305, 2026:54
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: home side has 6 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (Ligue 1; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 1 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: home side has 6 eligible matches
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 967 of 971 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's home probability is 6% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's away probability is 11% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Estac Troyes	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Marseille	home	0–2	1.21–0.53	L
19 Sept	Angers	away	0–2	1.02–2.25	L
13 Sept	Lille	away	0–2	0.38–1.65	L
6 Sept	Strasbourg	home	2–6	—	L
29 Aug	Lorient	away	2–1	2.12–1.15	W
22 Aug	Paris FC	home	0–0	0.42–1.80	D

Lens	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Oct	Lyon	home	2–1	1.38–1.05	W
18 Sept	Monaco	away	1–2	1.19–1.75	L
13 Sept	Le Mans	away	2–2	1.62–2.59	D
5 Sept	Lorient	home	0–1	1.24–1.60	L
29 Aug	Strasbourg	away	1–2	2.91–1.83	L
22 Aug	Auxerre	home	5–2	4.41–1.84	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT17ESTRCL-BTTS	58.6%	60.5%	−1.9 pts	0.59 / 0.62	0.41	4,611 / 3,420	Comparable seen 31 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Estac Troyes to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST	17.0%	23.0%	−6.0 pts	0.22 / 0.24	0.78	3,266 / 1,586	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Lens to win (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL	63.6%	52.5%	+11.1 pts	0.52 / 0.53	0.48	417 / 853	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT17ESTRCL-TIE	19.4%	23.5%	−4.1 pts	0.23 / 0.24	0.77	1,596 / 552	Comparable seen 31 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Estac Troyes to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST2	6.1%	9.5%	−3.4 pts	0.08 / 0.11	0.92	1,007 / 1,104	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Estac Troyes to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-EST3	1.7%	3.5%	−1.8 pts	0.01 / 0.06	0.99	25 / 1,951	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL2	40.8%	30.0%	+10.8 pts	0.28 / 0.32	0.72	1,015 / 854	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT17ESTRCL-RCL3	21.8%	14.0%	+7.8 pts	0.12 / 0.16	0.88	1,545 / 770	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-1	96.3%	95.0%	+1.3 pts	0.93 / 0.97	0.07	601 / 873	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-2	84.1%	82.5%	+1.6 pts	0.81 / 0.84	0.19	1,111 / 434	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-3	64.0%	60.5%	+3.5 pts	0.59 / 0.62	0.41	908 / 913	Comparable seen 30 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-4	41.9%	38.5%	+3.4 pts	0.37 / 0.40	0.63	1,108 / 431	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-5	23.7%	20.5%	+3.2 pts	0.19 / 0.22	0.81	1,104 / 431	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT17ESTRCL-6	11.7%	10.0%	+1.7 pts	0.09 / 0.11	0.91	1,662 / 402	Comparable seen 30 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:08:17.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	23.5%	22.7% – 25.5%	25.0%	4.00	10	17.0%	−6.5 pts
1x2:draw	24.4%	23.8% – 25.7%	25.6%	3.90	10	19.4%	−5.0 pts
1x2:away	52.2%	48.8% – 53.5%	55.4%	1.80	10	63.6%	+11.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:27.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	60.3%	59.2% – 61.5%	63.7%	1.57	7	64.0%	+3.8 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	39.7%	38.5% – 40.8%	41.7%	2.40	7	36.0%	−3.8 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:27.

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 1.82 · draw 3.94 · home 4.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 1.75 · draw 3.90 · home 4.00	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 1.81 · draw 3.98 · home 4.00	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBO	Match winner	away 1.82 · draw 3.46 · home 3.48	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 1.80 · draw 3.70 · home 3.90	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 1.80 · draw 3.80 · home 4.00	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 1.84 · draw 3.90 · home 3.95	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 1.87 · draw 4.04 · home 4.30	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Match winner	away 1.78 · draw 4.00 · home 4.20	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 1.80 · draw 3.75 · home 3.75	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.39	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.40	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.58 · under 2.5 2.40	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.38	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.64 · under 2.5 2.46	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.47	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.55 · under 2.5 2.25	11/10/2026, 11:37:27	11/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:08:17.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:11 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Estac Troyes	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:19 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Lens	ok	11/10/2026, 11:37:20 (Last checked 10 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	17.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	19.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	63.6%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	36.4%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	83.0%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	80.6%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	58.6%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	41.4%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	96.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	3.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	84.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	15.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	64.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	36.0%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	41.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	58.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	23.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	76.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	11.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	88.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	65.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	34.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	28.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	71.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	9.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	90.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	2.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	97.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	89.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	10.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	65.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	34.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	38.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	61.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	18.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	81.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	1.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	98.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	6.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	93.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	17.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	83.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	36.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	63.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	59.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	40.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	78.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	21.8%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	21.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	78.9%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 579 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:08:17