Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 04:30 PDT

EvertonvChelsea

Everton
35%
Draw
26%
Chelsea
39%

Got%OnIt gives Chelsea a 39% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Everton and 1.4 for Chelsea.
  • Everton won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 a game.
  • Chelsea won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Everton are 8th of 20 after 5 games; Chelsea are 5th.
  • Everton have won 2 and lost 0; Chelsea have won 3 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Everton

  • D2–2at Hull City11 Oct
  • W1–0v Ipswich19 Sept
  • D0–0at Tottenham12 Sept
  • D2–2v Manchester United6 Sept
  • D1–1at Bournemouth29 Aug
  • W2–0v Crystal Palace22 Aug

Chelsea

  • W5–1v Bournemouth10 Oct
  • L0–3at Brentford18 Sept
  • D2–2v Hull City12 Sept
  • L1–2at Arsenal6 Sept
  • W4–3v Brighton30 Aug
  • W3–2at Fulham24 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Everton win34.9%36.2%+1.3 pts
Draw26.0%25.9%−0.0 pts
Chelsea win39.1%37.9%−1.2 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.34 and 1.43). Everton 1.34 · Chelsea 1.43 · total 2.78 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Everton–Chelsea)

  1. 1–112.3%
  2. 0–18.6%
  3. 1–28.6%
  4. 2–18.0%
  5. 1–08.0%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Everton

Expected goals
1.34
Scoring vs average
×0.87
Conceding vs average
×1.13

Chelsea

Expected goals
1.43
Scoring vs average
×1.13
Conceding vs average
×0.87
  • Everton (home): expected to score ×0.87 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.13 the average.
  • Chelsea (away): expected to score ×1.13 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.87 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Everton
120 matches (120 with xG)
Chelsea
142 matches (142 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home34.9%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 29.0%
1x2:draw26.0%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 23.4%
1x2:away39.1%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 37.2%
double_chance:1x60.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x265.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1274.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes56.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no43.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.5%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.1%
total_goals:under:0.56.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.576.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.3%
total_goals:under:1.523.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.552.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 51.9%
total_goals:under:2.547.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.530.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.7%
total_goals:under:3.569.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.514.9%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 13.2%
total_goals:under:4.585.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.56.3%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 4.1%
total_goals:under:5.593.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.9%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.3%
team_total:home:under:0.526.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.538.9%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.2%
team_total:home:under:1.561.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.515.3%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.8%
team_total:home:under:2.584.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.8%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.9%
team_total:home:under:3.595.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.576.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.6%
team_total:away:under:0.523.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.542.0%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.3%
team_total:away:under:1.558.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.517.5%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.0%
team_total:away:under:2.582.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.3%
team_total:away:under:3.594.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.55.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.7%
spread:away:+2.594.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.1%
spread:home:-1.515.8%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.9%
spread:away:+1.584.2%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.7%
spread:home:-0.534.9%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.1%
spread:away:+0.565.1%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.4%
spread:home:+0.560.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 60.3%
spread:away:-0.539.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.8%
spread:home:+1.581.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.9%
spread:away:-1.518.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.8%
spread:home:+2.593.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.57.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home47.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away52.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.20 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 4236727720179259985 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.22 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Everton win34.9%35.2% ± 0.2+0.23 pts
Draw26.0%25.6% ± 0.1−0.43 pts
Chelsea win39.1%39.3% ± 0.2+0.20 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.20 pts (1x2:draw); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Everton
23.9% ± 0.1 (exact 23.8%)
Chelsea
26.0% ± 0.1 (exact 26.1%)

Goal difference (Everton minus Chelsea)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.5% ± 0.0
  3. -41.6% ± 0.0
  4. -34.8% ± 0.1
  5. -211.7% ± 0.1
  6. -120.6% ± 0.1
  7. 025.6% ± 0.1
  8. 119.3% ± 0.1
  9. 210.2% ± 0.1
  10. 34.0% ± 0.1
  11. 41.2% ± 0.0
  12. 50.3% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Everton 1–1 Chelsea12.0% ± 0.112.3%
Everton 0–1 Chelsea8.8% ± 0.18.6%
Everton 1–2 Chelsea8.7% ± 0.18.6%
Everton 1–0 Chelsea8.2% ± 0.18.0%
Everton 2–1 Chelsea8.0% ± 0.18.0%

Expected goals (simulated)

Everton
mean 1.35 · variance 1.34 · ± 0.004
Chelsea
mean 1.43 · variance 1.44 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 25.4%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Everton and +0.00 for Chelsea.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Everton win34.9%35.3%+0.3 pts
Draw26.0%25.4%−0.6 pts
Chelsea win39.1%39.4%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.431.34 – 1.43+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Everton

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: V. Mykolenko, C. Nørgaard, M. RohlESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Pickford)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Chelsea

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: J. GittensESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Martinez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move chelsea win by +1.5 pts (to 40.5%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Everton and +0.03 for Chelsea.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Everton win34.9%34.2%−0.8 pts
Draw26.0%25.3%−0.7 pts
Chelsea win39.1%40.5%+1.5 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.431.32 – 1.46−0.02 / +0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Everton rate ×0.98 band 0.82–1.19

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0565656565656566 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Chelsea rate ×1.02 band 0.84–1.27

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0565656565656566 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move chelsea win by +1.5 pts (to 40.5%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Everton and +0.03 for Chelsea.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Everton win34.9%34.2%−0.8 pts
Draw26.0%25.3%−0.7 pts
Chelsea win39.1%40.5%+1.5 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.431.32 – 1.46−0.02 / +0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 133 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Everton

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: V. Mykolenko, C. Nørgaard, M. RohlESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Pickford)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Chelsea

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: J. GittensESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice E. Martinez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Everton rate ×0.98 band 0.82–1.19

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0565656565656566 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Chelsea rate ×1.02 band 0.84–1.27

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.051515151515151514 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.0565656565656566 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Everton win34.9%34.9%−0.0 pts
Draw26.0%25.3%−0.7 pts
Chelsea win39.1%39.8%+0.7 pts
Expected goals—1.34 – 1.44−0.01 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 543 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)T. Barry 33% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Everton

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 78% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
T. Barry F33.4% ± 0.16.4% ± 0.10.41 ± 0.00297%
K. Dewsbury-Hall M24.0% ± 0.13.2% ± 0.10.27 ± 0.002100%
J. Tarkowski D8.8% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00186%
J. Garner M5.0% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00195%
A. Maitland-Niles D2.8% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00166%
M. Keane D2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00149%
J. Branthwaite D2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00073%
B. Johnson F2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00061%

Chelsea

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 73% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
Joao Pedro F24.9% ± 0.13.5% ± 0.10.29 ± 0.00262%
C. Palmer M18.5% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00189%
P. Neto F13.5% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00178%
M. Rogers F8.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00182%
Estêvão F2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00117%
D. Welbeck F2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00135%
M. Gusto M2.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00148%
J. Henderson M2.1% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00040%

Run 968 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 463, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Everton)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Chelsea)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T11:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationEverton 2 absent regulars · Chelsea 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Everton

5.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Arsenal +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptPLH IpswichW 1–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLA Hull CityD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLA Arsenal+7.1 d
  • Thu 29 OctEFLH Newcastle+12.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: V. Mykolenko (D) — reason unknown; I. Ndiaye (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.9 CONFIRMED

Everton: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
H. Armstrong · regularM7878—
J. Garner · regularM9013720' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before
T. Barry · regularF8686—
J. BranthwaiteD901170' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before
J. Tarkowski · regularD9090—
J. Pickford · regularG9027090' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before
K. Dewsbury-Hall · regularM9090—
J. GrealishM8686—
B. JohnsonM6614276' Wales, 12.7 d before
M. KeaneD9090—
A. Maitland-NilesD7878—

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 420 minutes — J. O&apos;Brien (90' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.7 d before); J. Garner (20' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before); J. Branthwaite (0' England, 13.8 d before; 27' England, 10.7 d before); J. Pickford (90' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before); B. Johnson (76' Wales, 12.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Chelsea

6.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Tottenham +7.2 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptPLA BrentfordL 0–3counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLH BournemouthW 5–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctPLH Tottenham+7.2 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Liverpool+11.4 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 64 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.4 CONFIRMED

Chelsea: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Rogers · regularF8419420' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before
Joshua Kofi AcheampongD9090—
M. Lacroix · regularD9018090' France, 11.7 d before
Pedro Neto · regularM83830' Portugal, 12.7 d before
M. CaicedoM7272—
E. MartínezG9090—
L. Colwill · regularD9090—
J. HendersonM9090—
Pep ChavarríaM9090—
C. Palmer · regularF8888—
João Pedro · regularF7272—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 319 minutes — M. Rogers (20' England, 13.8 d before; 90' England, 10.7 d before); M. Lacroix (90' France, 11.7 d before); J. Hato (32' Netherlands, 12.7 d before); R. Lavia (87' Belgium, 11.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Everton35%30%30%
Draw26%26%26%
Chelsea39%44%45%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Chelsea a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (39% vs 45%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Everton

  • Everton: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • D2–2at Hull City11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0v Ipswich19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Tottenham12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Manchester United6 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Bournemouth29 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Crystal Palace22 Aug · in model evidence

Chelsea

  • Chelsea: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • W5–1v Bournemouth10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Brentford18 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Hull City12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Arsenal6 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–3v Brighton30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Fulham24 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals7%
1 goal17%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals9%
6 or more6%
Over 1.577%
Over 2.553%
Over 3.530%
Both teams score57%

Everton

Expected goals1.34
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet24%

Chelsea

Expected goals1.43
Scores at least once76%
Scores 2 or more42%
Clean sheet26%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Everton

8th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L0 from 5 games · scored 6, conceded 3

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2) · Away W0 D2 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WDDDW (most recent last)

Chelsea

5th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L2 from 6 games · scored 15, conceded 13

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 11, conceded 6) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLDLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets10 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 20 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Everton to win34.9%35.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 31¢
Draw26.0%25.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Chelsea to win39.1%39.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 45¢
Double chance
Everton or draw limited evidence60.9%60.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 56¢
Chelsea or draw limited evidence65.1%64.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 71¢
Not a draw limited evidence74.0%74.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Draw no bet
Everton to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence47.2%47.3% ± 0.2no
Chelsea to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence52.8%52.7% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.5%93.7% ± 0.1no
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.5%6.3% ± 0.1no
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence76.8%76.7% ± 0.1no
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence23.2%23.3% ± 0.1no
Over 2.5 goals in total52.5%52.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 59¢
Under 2.5 goals in total47.5%47.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 42¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence30.3%30.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 36¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence69.7%69.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence14.9%14.8% ± 0.1no
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence85.1%85.2% ± 0.1no
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence6.3%6.4% ± 0.1no
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence93.7%93.6% ± 0.1no
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence56.6%56.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 62¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence43.4%43.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Team goals
Everton over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.9%74.0% ± 0.1no
Everton under 0.5 goals limited evidence26.1%26.0% ± 0.1no
Everton over 1.5 goals limited evidence38.9%38.8% ± 0.2no
Everton under 1.5 goals limited evidence61.1%61.2% ± 0.2no
Everton over 2.5 goals limited evidence15.3%15.4% ± 0.1no
Everton under 2.5 goals limited evidence84.7%84.6% ± 0.1no
Everton over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.8%4.8% ± 0.1no
Everton under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.2%95.2% ± 0.1no
Chelsea over 0.5 goals limited evidence76.2%76.1% ± 0.1no
Chelsea under 0.5 goals limited evidence23.8%23.9% ± 0.1no
Chelsea over 1.5 goals limited evidence42.0%42.0% ± 0.2no
Chelsea under 1.5 goals limited evidence58.0%58.0% ± 0.2no
Chelsea over 2.5 goals limited evidence17.5%17.4% ± 0.1no
Chelsea under 2.5 goals limited evidence82.5%82.6% ± 0.1no
Chelsea over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.8%5.8% ± 0.1no
Chelsea under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.2%94.2% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Everton to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.6%5.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Everton to win by 2 or more limited evidence15.8%15.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Everton to win by 1 or more limited evidence34.9%35.2% ± 0.2no
Everton not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence60.9%60.7% ± 0.2no
Everton not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence81.4%81.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Everton not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.0%93.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Chelsea to win by 3 or more limited evidence7.0%6.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Chelsea to win by 2 or more limited evidence18.6%18.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Chelsea to win by 1 or more limited evidence39.1%39.3% ± 0.2no
Chelsea not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence65.1%64.8% ± 0.2no
Chelsea not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence84.2%84.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Chelsea not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence94.4%94.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Clean sheet
Everton clean sheet grid23.8%23.9% ± 0.1no
Chelsea clean sheet grid26.1%26.0% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—25.6% ± 0.1not listed
Everton by exactly 1—19.3% ± 0.1not listed
Everton by exactly 2—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Everton by exactly 3—4.0% ± 0.1not listed
Everton by exactly 4—1.2% ± 0.0not listed
Everton by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Chelsea by exactly 1—20.6% ± 0.1not listed
Chelsea by exactly 2—11.7% ± 0.1not listed
Chelsea by exactly 3—4.8% ± 0.1not listed
Chelsea by exactly 4—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
Chelsea by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Everton by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Chelsea by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Everton 1–1 Chelsea—12.0% ± 0.1not listed
Everton 0–1 Chelsea—8.8% ± 0.1not listed
Everton 1–2 Chelsea—8.7% ± 0.1not listed
Everton 1–0 Chelsea—8.2% ± 0.1not listed
Everton 2–1 Chelsea—8.0% ± 0.1not listed

Everton v Chelsea: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Chelsea to win (90 minutes)
39%
45%
YES on Chelsea to WinChelsea wins in 90 minutes
39%45¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 14,458 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Everton to win (90 minutes)
35%
30%
YES on Everton to WinEverton wins in 90 minutes
35%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37,617 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
26%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
26%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 12,375 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawEverton or Chelsea wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
74%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,464 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Chelsea to WinEverton wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
61%56¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 11,894 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Everton to WinChelsea wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
65%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 10,356 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
53%
59%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
53%59¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,776 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
47%42¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
30%
35%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
30%36¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,207 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
70%66¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,725 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
57%
61%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
57%62¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,985 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
43%40¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,351 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
22%
Limited evidence
YES on Chelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsChelsea wins by 2 goals or more
19%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,180 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Chelsea to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEverton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 1 goal · Chelsea not by 2+ goals
81%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,184 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Chelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsChelsea wins by 3 goals or more
7%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,280 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Chelsea to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEverton wins or the match is drawn, or Chelsea wins by 2 goals or fewer · Chelsea not by 3+ goals
93%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 349 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Everton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEverton wins by 2 goals or more
16%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 513 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Everton to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsChelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 1 goal · Everton not by 2+ goals
84%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 12,206 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Everton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEverton wins by 3 goals or more
6%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 932 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Everton to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsChelsea wins or the match is drawn, or Everton wins by 2 goals or fewer · Everton not by 3+ goals
94%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,341 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 34.9% · draw 26.0% · away 39.1%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.43
Everton eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Chelsea eligible matches
142 (142 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

EvertonOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctHull Cityaway2–21.73–1.42D
19 SeptIpswichhome1–02.24–1.44W
12 SeptTottenhamaway0–01.11–0.69D
6 SeptManchester Unitedhome2–21.01–0.69D
29 AugBournemouthaway1–11.84–2.16D
22 AugCrystal Palacehome2–01.12–1.96W
ChelseaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctBournemouthhome5–11.16–1.52W
18 SeptBrentfordaway0–30.83–2.65L
12 SeptHull Cityhome2–20.91–1.38D
6 SeptArsenalaway1–20.39–2.05L
30 AugBrightonhome4–32.93–1.41W
24 AugFulhamaway3–22.24–1.33W

Kalshi contracts and the model

10 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17EVECFC-BTTS
56.6%61.0%−4.4 pts0.60 / 0.620.406,985 / 1,351Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Chelsea to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC
39.1%44.5%−5.4 pts0.44 / 0.450.5614,458 / 11,894Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Everton to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE
34.9%30.0%+4.9 pts0.29 / 0.310.7137,617 / 10,356Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17EVECFC-TIE
26.0%25.5%+0.5 pts0.25 / 0.260.7512,375 / 1,464Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Chelsea to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC2
18.6%22.0%−3.4 pts0.21 / 0.230.791,180 / 7,184Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Chelsea to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-CFC3
7.0%10.0%−3.0 pts0.09 / 0.110.912,280 / 349Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Everton to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE2
15.8%12.0%+3.8 pts0.11 / 0.130.89513 / 12,206Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Everton to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17EVECFC-EVE3
5.6%5.0%+0.6 pts0.03 / 0.070.97932 / 1,341Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-3
52.5%58.5%−6.0 pts0.58 / 0.590.422,776 / 0Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17EVECFC-4
30.3%35.0%−4.7 pts0.34 / 0.360.661,207 / 5,725Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:58.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home29.9%29.5% – 31.0%31.8%3.141034.9%+5.1 pts
1x2:draw25.6%24.8% – 26.5%26.9%3.721026.0%+0.4 pts
1x2:away44.2%43.9% – 44.8%47.3%2.121039.1%−5.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:11 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.556.9%56.3% – 57.9%59.9%1.67752.5%−4.3 pts
total_goals:under:2.543.1%42.1% – 43.7%45.2%2.21747.5%+4.3 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:11 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.17 · draw 3.78 · home 3.1511/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.75 · home 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.13 · draw 3.69 · home 3.2211/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.02 · draw 3.35 · home 2.9911/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.80 · home 3.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.13 · draw 3.75 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.23 · draw 3.88 · home 3.2411/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.15 · draw 3.65 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.60 · home 3.1311/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2111/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.68 · under 2.5 2.2211/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.2811/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.67 · under 2.5 2.2511/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.63 · under 2.5 2.1011/10/2026, 09:31:1111/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:58.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:03 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Evertonok11/10/2026, 01:39:08 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Chelseaok11/10/2026, 01:39:09 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home34.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw26.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away39.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x60.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x265.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes56.6%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no43.4%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.576.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.523.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.552.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.547.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.530.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.569.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.514.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.585.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.515.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.584.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.576.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.523.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.542.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.558.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.517.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.582.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.55.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.594.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.515.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.584.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.534.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.565.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.560.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.539.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.581.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.518.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.593.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.57.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home47.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away52.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 463 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:58