Got%OnIt
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Serie A·Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 PDT

UdinesevLecce

Udinese
50%
Draw
27%
Lecce
23%

Got%OnIt gives Udinese a 50% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Serie A matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Udinese and 0.9 for Lecce.
  • Udinese won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • Lecce won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Udinese are 14th of 20 after 5 games; Lecce are 12th.
  • Udinese have won 1 and lost 3; Lecce have won 2 and lost 4.
Recent matches the model used

Udinese

  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May

Lecce

  • L1–2v Bologna11 Oct
  • L0–3at AC Milan20 Sept
  • W3–2v Monza13 Sept
  • L0–1at Cagliari7 Sept
  • L0–4v AS Roma31 Aug
  • W2–0at Venezia23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Udinese win50.2%50.7%+0.4 pts
Draw27.0%27.2%+0.2 pts
Lecce win22.7%22.1%−0.7 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.48 and 0.90). Udinese 1.48 · Lecce 0.90 · total 2.38 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Udinese–Lecce)

  1. 1–013.3%
  2. 1–112.7%
  3. 2–010.1%
  4. 0–09.6%
  5. 2–19.1%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Udinese

Expected goals
1.48
Scoring vs average
×1.13
Conceding vs average
×0.76

Lecce

Expected goals
0.90
Scoring vs average
×0.76
Conceding vs average
×1.13
  • Udinese (home): expected to score ×1.13 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.76 the average.
  • Lecce (away): expected to score ×0.76 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.13 the average.
  • Recent 378 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.31 home and 1.19 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.10).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Udinese
119 matches (118 with xG)
Lecce
120 matches (119 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home50.2%over-stated by 1.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 47.1%
1x2:draw27.0%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 24.4%
1x2:away22.7%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 20.7%
double_chance:1x77.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x249.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1273.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes46.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no53.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.590.4%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.0%
total_goals:under:0.59.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.569.1%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.4%
total_goals:under:1.530.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.542.5%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 41.9%
total_goals:under:2.557.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.521.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.2%
total_goals:under:3.578.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.59.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 8.3%
total_goals:under:4.590.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.53.5%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 1.8%
total_goals:under:5.596.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.577.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.6%
team_total:home:under:0.522.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.543.5%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 42.8%
team_total:home:under:1.556.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.518.5%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 18.0%
team_total:home:under:2.581.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.3%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.4%
team_total:home:under:3.593.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.559.5%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.9%
team_total:away:under:0.540.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.522.9%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.3%
team_total:away:under:1.577.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.56.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.0%
team_total:away:under:2.593.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.1%
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.510.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.1%
spread:away:+2.589.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 89.5%
spread:home:-1.525.5%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.5%
spread:away:+1.574.5%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.9%
spread:home:-0.550.2%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 48.4%
spread:away:+0.549.8%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.1%
spread:home:+0.577.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.7%
spread:away:-0.522.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.6%
spread:home:+1.592.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.9%
spread:away:-1.57.7%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.1%
spread:home:+2.598.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home68.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away31.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.36 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5006470251782492890 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.15 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Udinese win50.2%50.7% ± 0.2+0.49 pts
Draw27.0%26.3% ± 0.1−0.68 pts
Lecce win22.7%22.9% ± 0.1+0.19 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.36 pts (team_total:away:over:0.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Udinese
40.9% ± 0.2 (exact 40.5%)
Lecce
22.8% ± 0.1 (exact 22.8%)

Goal difference (Udinese minus Lecce)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.3% ± 0.0
  4. -31.6% ± 0.0
  5. -25.7% ± 0.1
  6. -115.2% ± 0.1
  7. 026.3% ± 0.1
  8. 125.2% ± 0.1
  9. 215.3% ± 0.1
  10. 36.8% ± 0.1
  11. 42.5% ± 0.0
  12. 50.7% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Udinese 1–0 Lecce13.9% ± 0.113.3%
Udinese 1–1 Lecce12.3% ± 0.112.7%
Udinese 2–0 Lecce10.0% ± 0.110.1%
Udinese 0–0 Lecce9.3% ± 0.19.6%
Udinese 2–1 Lecce9.0% ± 0.19.1%

Expected goals (simulated)

Udinese
mean 1.48 · variance 1.49 · ± 0.004
Lecce
mean 0.90 · variance 0.91 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move udinese win by −3.1 pts (to 47.1%). Expected goals move −0.13 for Udinese and +0.00 for Lecce.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Udinese win50.2%47.1%−3.1 pts
Draw27.0%27.8%+0.8 pts
Lecce win22.7%25.1%+2.4 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.901.35 – 0.90−0.13 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 113 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Udinese

Attack ×0.91 band 0.87–0.96 ESTIMATED · 17.3% of goals share out

  • N. Zaniolo M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 7.9% · effect −7.9% REPORTED
  • J. Piotrowski M Missing Fixture (Heart Problems) · share 4.4% · effect −4.4% REPORTED
  • I. Gueye F Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 5.0% · effect −5.0% REPORTED
  • J. Arizala M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Palma D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Okoye)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lecce

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice W. Falcone)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move lecce win by +1.6 pts (to 24.4%). Expected goals move −0.05 for Udinese and +0.02 for Lecce.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Udinese win50.2%48.8%−1.5 pts
Draw27.0%26.9%−0.2 pts
Lecce win22.7%24.4%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.901.43 – 0.93−0.05 / +0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 113 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Udinese rate ×0.97 band 0.75–1.23

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1333333333333333 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Lecce rate ×1.02 band 0.78–1.38

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1333333333333333 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move udinese win by −4.9 pts (to 45.4%). Expected goals move −0.17 for Udinese and +0.02 for Lecce.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Udinese win50.2%45.4%−4.9 pts
Draw27.0%28.2%+1.2 pts
Lecce win22.7%26.4%+3.7 pts
Expected goals1.48 – 0.901.31 – 0.93−0.17 / +0.02

Data labels: CONFIRMED 113 · REPORTED 5 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Udinese

Attack ×0.91 band 0.87–0.96 ESTIMATED · 17.3% of goals share out

  • N. Zaniolo M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 7.9% · effect −7.9% REPORTED
  • J. Piotrowski M Missing Fixture (Heart Problems) · share 4.4% · effect −4.4% REPORTED
  • I. Gueye F Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 5.0% · effect −5.0% REPORTED
  • J. Arizala M Questionable (Thigh Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Palma D Questionable (Muscle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Okoye)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Lecce

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice W. Falcone)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Udinese rate ×0.97 band 0.75–1.23

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1333333333333333 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Lecce rate ×1.02 band 0.78–1.38

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1333333333333333 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Udinese win50.2%50.6%+0.3 pts
Draw27.0%26.4%−0.6 pts
Lecce win22.7%23.0%+0.3 pts
Expected goals—1.48 – 0.90−0.00 / −0.00

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 585 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)K. Davis 20% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Udinese

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
K. Davis F20.3% ± 0.12.3% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00290%
J. Ekkelenkamp M17.9% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00177%
H. Kamara M7.8% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00184%
J. Karlstrom M7.2% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.001100%
O. Solet D6.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00160%
J. Abankwah D4.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00177%
C. Kabasele D4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00160%
V. Bayo F2.6% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00112%

Lecce

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 65% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
L. Coulibaly M15.6% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.17 ± 0.001100%
Tiago Gabriel D10.9% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00175%
N. Stulic F6.8% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00144%
J. Siebert D3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00183%
S. Pierotti F3.1% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00186%
A. Ahmed Fatah F2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00022%
O. Gandelman M1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0000%
O. Gorter M1.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00017%

Run 989 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 484, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T10:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Udinese)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lecce)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Serie A matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationUdinese 2 absent regulars · Lecce 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Udinese

5.7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H AC Milan +7.4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAH CagliariL 0–1counted as workload
  • Mon 12 OctSAA TorinoNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctSAH AC Milan+7.4 d
  • Wed 28 OctSAA Parma+10.3 d
  • Sat 31 OctSAH AS Roma+13.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Solet (D) — reason unknown; J. Piotrowski (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Udinese: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
K. Davis · regularF00—
H. Kamara · regularM00—
L. MillerM000' Scotland, 11.7 d before
M. Vojvoda · regularM09090' Kosovo, 13.8 d before
C. KabaseleD00—
J. Ekkelenkamp · regularF00—
J. AbankwahD00—
M. Okoye · regularG00—
E. EbosseD00—
J. Karlstrom · regularM05454' Sweden, 12.7 d before
N. ZanioloF00—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 169 minutes — M. Vojvoda (90' Kosovo, 13.8 d before); J. Karlstrom (54' Sweden, 12.7 d before); G. Chakvetadze (25' Georgia, 12.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Lecce

6.9 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Juventus +7.3 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAA AC MilanL 0–3counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH BolognaL 1–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctSAH Juventus+7.3 d
  • Thu 29 OctSAA Frosinone+11.3 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 25 in the squad); 44 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78 CONFIRMED

Lecce: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. Coulibaly · regularM9090—
S. Pierotti · regularF6262—
Paco EstebanF6262—
W. Falcone · regularG9090—
Tiago Gabriel · regularD9090—
Danilo Veiga · regularD9090—
J. Siebert · regularD9090—
A. Gallo · regularD9090—
I. IlićM3636—
Y. MalehM7979—
A. Ahmed FatahF7979—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 32 minutes — O. Gandelman (32' Israel, 13.7 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Udinese50%51%52%
Draw27%27%27%
Lecce23%23%22%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 18 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Udinese

  • Udinese: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 40%.
  • L0–1v Cagliari19 Sept · in model evidence
  • L3–5at Inter14 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Lazio7 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2at Monza29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Como22 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Napoli24 May · in model evidence

Lecce

  • Lecce: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • L1–2v Bologna11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L0–3at AC Milan20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v Monza13 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Cagliari7 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–4v AS Roma31 Aug · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Venezia23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more3%
Over 1.569%
Over 2.543%
Over 3.522%
Both teams score46%

Udinese

Expected goals1.48
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more43%
Clean sheet40%

Lecce

Expected goals0.90
Scores at least once60%
Scores 2 or more23%
Clean sheet23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season14th v 12th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Udinese

14th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 8, conceded 11

Home W0 D1 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 6, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LLLWD (most recent last)

Lecce

12th of 20 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L4 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 12

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 4, conceded 8) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 5 games

Last five league games LLWLL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Udinese to win50.2%50.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
Draw27.0%26.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Lecce to win22.7%22.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Double chance
Udinese or draw limited evidence77.3%77.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Lecce or draw limited evidence49.8%49.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Not a draw limited evidence73.0%73.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Draw no bet
Udinese to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence68.8%68.9% ± 0.2no
Lecce to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence31.2%31.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence90.4%90.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 94¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence9.6%9.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence69.1%68.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 74¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence30.9%31.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 29¢
Over 2.5 goals in total42.5%42.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Under 2.5 goals in total57.5%57.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence21.7%21.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence78.3%78.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence9.4%9.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence90.6%90.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence3.5%3.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence96.5%96.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence46.3%45.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence53.7%54.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 51¢
Team goals
Udinese over 0.5 goals limited evidence77.2%77.2% ± 0.1no
Udinese under 0.5 goals limited evidence22.8%22.8% ± 0.1no
Udinese over 1.5 goals limited evidence43.5%43.4% ± 0.2no
Udinese under 1.5 goals limited evidence56.5%56.6% ± 0.2no
Udinese over 2.5 goals limited evidence18.5%18.7% ± 0.1no
Udinese under 2.5 goals limited evidence81.5%81.3% ± 0.1no
Udinese over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.3%6.4% ± 0.1no
Udinese under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.7%93.6% ± 0.1no
Lecce over 0.5 goals limited evidence59.5%59.1% ± 0.2no
Lecce under 0.5 goals limited evidence40.5%40.9% ± 0.2no
Lecce over 1.5 goals limited evidence22.9%22.8% ± 0.1no
Lecce under 1.5 goals limited evidence77.1%77.2% ± 0.1no
Lecce over 2.5 goals limited evidence6.4%6.4% ± 0.1no
Lecce under 2.5 goals limited evidence93.6%93.6% ± 0.1no
Lecce over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.4%1.4% ± 0.0no
Lecce under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.6%98.6% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Udinese to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.1%10.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Udinese to win by 2 or more limited evidence25.5%25.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Udinese to win by 1 or more limited evidence50.2%50.7% ± 0.2no
Udinese not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence77.3%77.1% ± 0.1no
Udinese not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence92.3%92.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 94¢
Udinese not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.0%98.0% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢
Lecce to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.0%2.0% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 5¢
Lecce to win by 2 or more limited evidence7.7%7.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 8¢
Lecce to win by 1 or more limited evidence22.7%22.9% ± 0.1no
Lecce not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence49.8%49.3% ± 0.2no
Lecce not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence74.5%74.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Lecce not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.9%89.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Clean sheet
Udinese clean sheet grid40.5%40.9% ± 0.2no
Lecce clean sheet grid22.8%22.8% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—26.3% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 1—25.2% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 2—15.3% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 3—6.8% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese by exactly 4—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Udinese by exactly 5—0.7% ± 0.0not listed
Lecce by exactly 1—15.2% ± 0.1not listed
Lecce by exactly 2—5.7% ± 0.1not listed
Lecce by exactly 3—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
Lecce by exactly 4—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Lecce by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Udinese by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Lecce by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Udinese 1–0 Lecce—13.9% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese 1–1 Lecce—12.3% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese 2–0 Lecce—10.0% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese 0–0 Lecce—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Udinese 2–1 Lecce—9.0% ± 0.1not listed

Udinese v Lecce: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Lecce to win (90 minutes)
23%
22%
YES on Lecce to WinLecce wins in 90 minutes
23%23¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,278 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
27%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
27%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,155 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Udinese to win (90 minutes)
50%
52%
YES on Udinese to WinUdinese wins in 90 minutes
50%52¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,555 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawUdinese or Lecce wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
73%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,402 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lecce to WinUdinese wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
77%79¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,701 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to WinLecce wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
50%49¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 578 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 7,390 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
69%
73%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
69%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
31%29¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 725 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
43%
47%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
43%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
57%55¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,335 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
22%
25%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
22%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
78%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,236 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%91¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,435 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 27 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
46%
51%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
46%52¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,226 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
54%51¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,989 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Winning margin
Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Lecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLecce wins by 2 goals or more
8%8¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lecce to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 1 goal · Lecce not by 2+ goals
92%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,335 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
3%
Limited evidence
YES on Lecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLecce wins by 3 goals or more
2%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 825 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Lecce to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins or the match is drawn, or Lecce wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lecce not by 3+ goals
98%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 2 goals or more
26%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,225 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 1 goal · Udinese not by 2+ goals
74%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsUdinese wins by 3 goals or more
10%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
NO on Udinese to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLecce wins or the match is drawn, or Udinese wins by 2 goals or fewer · Udinese not by 3+ goals
90%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,475 contracts at the ask · quote 18 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 50.2% · draw 27.0% · away 22.7%
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.90
Udinese eligible matches
119 (118 with xG)
Lecce eligible matches
120 (119 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Serie A; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

UdineseOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptCagliarihome0–12.13–1.12L
14 SeptInteraway3–5—L
7 SeptLaziohome1–20.85–1.83L
29 AugMonzaaway3–20.98–1.70W
22 AugComohome1–12.14–1.50D
24 MayNapoliaway0–10.37–1.76L
LecceOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctBolognahome1–21.27–1.55L
20 SeptAC Milanaway0–30.21–2.19L
13 SeptMonzahome3–21.08–2.79W
7 SeptCagliariaway0–10.50–1.61L
31 AugAS Romahome0–40.80–3.27L
23 AugVeneziaaway2–0—W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXSERIEABTTS-26OCT18UDILEC-BTTS
46.3%50.5%−4.2 pts0.49 / 0.520.511,226 / 3,989Comparable
seen 18 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lecce to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC
22.7%22.0%+0.7 pts0.21 / 0.230.794,278 / 1,701Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI
50.2%51.5%−1.3 pts0.51 / 0.520.491,555 / 578Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXSERIEAGAME-26OCT18UDILEC-TIE
27.0%26.5%+0.5 pts0.26 / 0.270.741,155 / 1,402Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Lecce to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC2
7.7%7.0%+0.7 pts0.06 / 0.080.94723 / 1,335Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lecce to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-LEC3
2.0%3.0%−1.0 pts0.01 / 0.050.99825 / 300Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI2
25.5%25.5%+0.0 pts0.24 / 0.270.761,225 / 723Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Udinese to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEASPREAD-26OCT18UDILEC-UDI3
10.1%9.5%+0.6 pts0.08 / 0.110.92500 / 1,475Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-1
90.4%92.5%−2.1 pts0.91 / 0.940.097,390 / 500Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-2
69.1%72.5%−3.4 pts0.71 / 0.740.291,225 / 725Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-3
42.5%46.5%−4.0 pts0.45 / 0.480.551,226 / 1,335Comparable
seen 18 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-4
21.7%24.5%−2.8 pts0.23 / 0.260.77500 / 1,236Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-5
9.4%10.5%−1.1 pts0.09 / 0.120.911,225 / 1,435Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXSERIEATOTAL-26OCT18UDILEC-6
3.5%4.5%−1.0 pts0.03 / 0.060.9727 / 250Comparable
seen 18 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:09:00.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home50.6%47.9% – 50.8%53.6%1.861050.2%−0.3 pts
1x2:draw26.8%26.5% – 28.1%28.6%3.501027.0%+0.2 pts
1x2:away22.7%21.7% – 24.0%23.8%4.201022.7%+0.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:27.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.548.9%46.8% – 50.0%51.8%1.93842.5%−6.3 pts
total_goals:under:2.551.1%50.0% – 53.2%54.1%1.85857.5%+6.3 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:28.

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 4.20 · draw 3.60 · home 1.8911/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 4.00 · draw 3.50 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 4.21 · draw 3.54 · home 1.8811/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOMatch winneraway 3.69 · draw 3.15 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
William HillMatch winneraway 3.90 · draw 3.40 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Match winneraway 4.33 · draw 3.40 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 4.20 · draw 3.55 · home 1.8811/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 4.32 · draw 3.70 · home 1.9411/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 4.25 · draw 3.45 · home 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 4.10 · draw 3.50 · home 1.8311/10/2026, 11:37:2711/10/2026, 09:41:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.8811/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.8011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.05 · under 2.5 1.8011/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.04 · under 2.5 1.8211/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.9411/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.93 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.90 · under 2.5 1.7811/10/2026, 11:37:2811/10/2026, 09:41:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:09:00.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:11 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:09 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Udineseok11/10/2026, 11:37:11 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Lecceok11/10/2026, 11:37:15 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home50.2%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.0%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away22.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x77.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x249.8%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1273.0%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes46.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no53.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.590.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.59.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.569.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.530.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.542.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.557.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.521.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.578.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.59.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.590.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.577.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.522.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.543.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.556.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.559.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.540.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.522.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.577.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.56.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.593.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.589.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.525.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.574.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.550.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.549.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.577.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.522.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.592.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.57.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.598.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.0%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home68.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away31.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 484 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:09:00