Got%OnIt
Back to Lab
Bundesliga·Fri 16 Oct, 11:30 PDT

Eintracht Frankfurtv1. FC Köln

Eintracht Frankfurt
53%
Draw
22%
1. FC Köln
26%

Got%OnIt gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 53% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 2.0 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.4 for 1. FC Köln.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 a game.
  • 1. FC Köln won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Eintracht Frankfurt are 13th of 18 after 5 games; 1. FC Köln are 14th.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 and lost 2; 1. FC Köln have won 1 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • L0–6at RB Leipzig10 Oct
  • D2–2v SC Freiburg19 Sept
  • W3–1at FSV Mainz 0512 Sept
  • L1–4v FC Augsburg6 Sept
  • D3–3at Union Berlin29 Aug
  • D2–2v VfB Stuttgart16 May

1. FC Köln

  • W2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach11 Oct
  • L1–2at Hamburger SV19 Sept
  • D1–1v Werder Bremen12 Sept
  • L1–4at VfB Stuttgart4 Sept
  • W3–2v 1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug
  • L1–5at Bayern München16 May

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%57.3%+4.8 pts
Draw21.9%19.9%−2.0 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%22.8%−2.8 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.04 and 1.38). Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 · 1. FC Köln 1.38 · total 3.42 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Eintracht Frankfurt–1. FC Köln)

  1. 1–19.5%
  2. 2–19.4%
  3. 2–06.8%
  4. 2–26.5%
  5. 1–06.4%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Eintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals
2.04
Scoring vs average
×1.09
Conceding vs average
×0.96

1. FC Köln

Expected goals
1.38
Scoring vs average
×0.96
Conceding vs average
×1.09
  • Eintracht Frankfurt (home): expected to score ×1.09 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.96 the average.
  • 1. FC Köln (away): expected to score ×0.96 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.09 the average.
  • Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Eintracht Frankfurt
135 matches (135 with xG)
1. FC Köln
73 matches (73 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home52.5%over-stated by 3.6 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 47.3%
1x2:draw21.9%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 19.5%
1x2:away25.6%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 24.2%
double_chance:1x74.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x247.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1278.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes65.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no34.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.596.5%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 96.2%
total_goals:under:0.53.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.585.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 85.3%
total_goals:under:1.514.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.566.4%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 65.7%
total_goals:under:2.533.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.544.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 43.9%
total_goals:under:3.555.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.525.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 24.5%
total_goals:under:4.574.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.513.2%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 12.1%
total_goals:under:5.586.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.587.0%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 86.5%
team_total:home:under:0.513.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.560.4%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.8%
team_total:home:under:1.539.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.533.4%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.7%
team_total:home:under:2.566.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.515.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 13.9%
team_total:home:under:3.585.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.574.8%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.2%
team_total:away:under:0.525.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.540.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 39.4%
team_total:away:under:1.559.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.516.2%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.7%
team_total:away:under:2.583.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.1%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.7%
team_total:away:under:3.594.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.515.2%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.1%
spread:away:+2.584.8%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.3%
spread:home:-1.531.1%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 29.1%
spread:away:+1.568.9%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.3%
spread:home:-0.552.5%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.7%
spread:away:+0.547.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.8%
spread:home:+0.574.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.8%
spread:away:-0.525.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 24.4%
spread:home:+1.588.8%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.4%
spread:away:-1.511.2%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.5%
spread:home:+2.596.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home67.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away32.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.31 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5864668093483976176 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%53.0% ± 0.2+0.46 pts
Draw21.9%21.4% ± 0.1−0.48 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%25.6% ± 0.1+0.02 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.31 pts (team_total:away:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Eintracht Frankfurt
25.3% ± 0.1 (exact 25.2%)
1. FC Köln
12.9% ± 0.1 (exact 13.0%)

Goal difference (Eintracht Frankfurt minus 1. FC Köln)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.9% ± 0.0
  4. -32.7% ± 0.1
  5. -27.2% ± 0.1
  6. -114.6% ± 0.1
  7. 021.4% ± 0.1
  8. 121.7% ± 0.1
  9. 215.9% ± 0.1
  10. 39.0% ± 0.1
  11. 44.1% ± 0.1
  12. 51.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.6% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 1. FC Köln9.6% ± 0.19.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 1. FC Köln9.3% ± 0.19.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 1. FC Köln6.9% ± 0.16.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln6.7% ± 0.16.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1. FC Köln6.4% ± 0.16.5%

Expected goals (simulated)

Eintracht Frankfurt
mean 2.04 · variance 2.04 · ± 0.005
1. FC Köln
mean 1.37 · variance 1.36 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.5 pts (to 21.4%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt and +0.00 for 1. FC Köln.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%52.8%+0.2 pts
Draw21.9%21.4%−0.5 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%25.8%+0.2 pts
Expected goals2.04 – 1.382.04 – 1.38+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 110 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: F. Chaibi, J. Maluze, M. PimpongCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Atubolu)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

1. FC Köln

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: A. Castro-Montes, R. Ache, T. DallingaESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Schwabe)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move eintracht frankfurt win by +0.6 pts (to 53.1%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt and −0.01 for 1. FC Köln.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%53.1%+0.6 pts
Draw21.9%21.4%−0.5 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%25.5%−0.1 pts
Expected goals2.04 – 1.382.04 – 1.36+0.00 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 110 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Eintracht Frankfurt rate ×1.00 band 0.82–1.25

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12525252525252517 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07474747474747478 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln rate ×0.99 band 0.81–1.22

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07474747474747478 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12525252525252517 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move eintracht frankfurt win by +0.6 pts (to 53.1%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt and −0.01 for 1. FC Köln.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%53.1%+0.6 pts
Draw21.9%21.4%−0.5 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%25.5%−0.1 pts
Expected goals2.04 – 1.382.04 – 1.36+0.00 / −0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 110 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 49 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 11 h before as-of.

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: F. Chaibi, J. Maluze, M. PimpongCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Atubolu)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

1. FC Köln

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: A. Castro-Montes, R. Ache, T. DallingaESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Schwabe)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Eintracht Frankfurt rate ×1.00 band 0.82–1.25

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12525252525252517 · contribution -0.002 (-0.011 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07474747474747478 · contribution 0.001 (-0.005 to 0.006) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln rate ×0.99 band 0.81–1.22

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.07474747474747478 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.12525252525252517 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win52.5%54.0%+1.4 pts
Draw21.9%21.1%−0.8 pts
1. FC Köln win25.6%25.0%−0.6 pts
Expected goals—2.09 – 1.37+0.05 / −0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 535 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)J. Burkardt 44% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Eintracht Frankfurt

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 76% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
J. Burkardt F43.5% ± 0.211.2% ± 0.10.57 ± 0.00286%
C. Y. Uzun M25.2% ± 0.13.5% ± 0.10.29 ± 0.002100%
Y. Ebnoutalib F13.7% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00146%
R. Koch D8.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.001100%
R. Dōan M7.6% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00177%
A. Knauff F5.7% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00126%
F. Chaibi M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00114%
A. Amaimouni F3.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00120%

1. FC Köln

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 87% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. El Mala M36.2% ± 0.27.4% ± 0.10.45 ± 0.00274%
R. Ache F18.0% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.20 ± 0.00128%
I. Johannesson M11.3% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00158%
L. Maina M9.8% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00174%
M. Bulter F7.9% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00161%
T. Dallinga F4.7% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00132%
A. Castro-Montes M3.2% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00166%
L. Waldschmidt F2.9% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.0014%

Run 964 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 459, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Eintracht Frankfurt)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (1. FC Köln)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationEintracht Frankfurt 6 d rest · 1. FC Köln 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Eintracht Frankfurt

6.1 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A Borussia Dortmund +7.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH SC FreiburgD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLA RB LeipzigL 0–6counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA Borussia Dortmund+7.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA Hamburger SV+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 47 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 3 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.7 CONFIRMED

Eintracht Frankfurt: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. AtuboluG90900' Germany, 12 d before
N. CollinsD9090—
R. Koch · regularD4545—
R. OnyedikaM9090—
N. Aséko NkiliM7373—
K. KosugiM4545—
R. DōanM7373—
J. Burkardt · regularF9015464' Germany, 12 d before
L. BrassierD9090—
A. KnauffM9090—
C. Uzun · regularM9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 64 minutes — J. Burkardt (64' Germany, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln

5.2 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H FC Schalke 04 +7.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLA Hamburger SVL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctBLH Borussia MönchengladbachW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLH FC Schalke 04+7.8 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH Union Berlin+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 39 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Castro-Montes (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 83.3 CONFIRMED

1. FC Köln: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. SkhiriM4545—
S. El Mala · regularF7810426' Germany, 12 d before
S. SebulonsenD9090—
M. Schwäbe · regularG9090—
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · regularD9090—
L. LochoshviliD7825890' Georgia, 14 d before; 90' Georgia, 11 d before
B. SosaD9090—
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson · regularM9027090' Iceland, 13.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 10 d before
L. MainaM9090—
M. MooreM8585—
M. Bülter · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 386 minutes — S. El Mala (26' Germany, 12 d before); L. Lochoshvili (90' Georgia, 14 d before; 90' Georgia, 11 d before); Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson (90' Iceland, 13.1 d before; 90' Iceland, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Eintracht Frankfurt53%49%49%
Draw22%23%23%
1. FC Köln26%28%28%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 5 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • Eintracht Frankfurt: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.7 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • L0–6at RB Leipzig10 Oct · in model evidence
  • D2–2v SC Freiburg19 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1at FSV Mainz 0512 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4v FC Augsburg6 Sept · in model evidence
  • D3–3at Union Berlin29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2v VfB Stuttgart16 May · in model evidence

1. FC Köln

  • 1. FC Köln: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 2.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
  • W2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Hamburger SV19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Werder Bremen12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at VfB Stuttgart4 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–2v 1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–5at Bayern München16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals4%
1 goal11%
2 goals19%
3 goals22%
4 goals19%
5 goals13%
6 or more13%
Over 1.586%
Over 2.566%
Over 3.545%
Both teams score65%

Eintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals2.04
Scores at least once87%
Scores 2 or more60%
Clean sheet25%

1. FC Köln

Expected goals1.38
Scores at least once75%
Scores 2 or more40%
Clean sheet13%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season13th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Eintracht Frankfurt

13th of 18 · 5 pts · W1 D2 L2 from 5 games · scored 9, conceded 16

Home W0 D1 L1 (scored 3, conceded 6) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 6, conceded 10)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games LDWLD (most recent last)

1. FC Köln

14th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L2 from 4 games · scored 6, conceded 9

Home W1 D1 L0 (scored 4, conceded 3) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 4 games

Last five league games LDLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Eintracht Frankfurt to win52.5%53.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 49¢
Draw21.9%21.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
1. FC Köln to win25.6%25.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Double chance
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw limited evidence74.4%74.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
1. FC Köln or draw limited evidence47.5%47.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Not a draw limited evidence78.1%78.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Draw no bet
Eintracht Frankfurt to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence67.2%67.4% ± 0.2no
1. FC Köln to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence32.8%32.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence96.5%96.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence3.5%3.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence85.8%85.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 89¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence14.2%14.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 13¢
Over 2.5 goals in total66.4%66.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 71¢
Under 2.5 goals in total33.6%33.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 31¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence44.6%44.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 50¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence55.4%55.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence25.9%25.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence74.1%74.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence13.2%13.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence86.8%86.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence65.3%65.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 70¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence34.7%34.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 31¢
Team goals
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 goals limited evidence87.0%87.1% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 goals limited evidence13.0%12.9% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 goals limited evidence60.4%60.4% ± 0.2no
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 goals limited evidence39.6%39.6% ± 0.2no
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 goals limited evidence33.4%33.3% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.5 goals limited evidence66.6%66.7% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt over 3.5 goals limited evidence15.0%15.1% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt under 3.5 goals limited evidence85.0%84.9% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln over 0.5 goals limited evidence74.8%74.7% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln under 0.5 goals limited evidence25.2%25.3% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln over 1.5 goals limited evidence40.1%39.8% ± 0.2no
1. FC Köln under 1.5 goals limited evidence59.9%60.2% ± 0.2no
1. FC Köln over 2.5 goals limited evidence16.2%16.0% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln under 2.5 goals limited evidence83.8%84.0% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.1%5.0% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.9%95.0% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by 3 or more limited evidence15.2%15.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by 2 or more limited evidence31.1%31.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by 1 or more limited evidence52.5%53.0% ± 0.2no
Eintracht Frankfurt not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence74.4%74.4% ± 0.1no
Eintracht Frankfurt not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence88.8%89.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Eintracht Frankfurt not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence96.1%96.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
1. FC Köln to win by 3 or more limited evidence3.9%3.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
1. FC Köln to win by 2 or more limited evidence11.2%11.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
1. FC Köln to win by 1 or more limited evidence25.6%25.6% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence47.5%47.0% ± 0.2no
1. FC Köln not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence68.9%68.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
1. FC Köln not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence84.8%84.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Clean sheet
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet grid25.2%25.3% ± 0.1no
1. FC Köln clean sheet grid13.0%12.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—21.4% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by exactly 1—21.7% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by exactly 2—15.9% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by exactly 3—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by exactly 4—4.1% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by exactly 5—1.5% ± 0.0not listed
1. FC Köln by exactly 1—14.6% ± 0.1not listed
1. FC Köln by exactly 2—7.2% ± 0.1not listed
1. FC Köln by exactly 3—2.7% ± 0.1not listed
1. FC Köln by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
1. FC Köln by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt by 6 or more—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
1. FC Köln by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 1. FC Köln—9.6% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 1. FC Köln—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 1. FC Köln—6.9% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 1. FC Köln—6.7% ± 0.1not listed
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1. FC Köln—6.4% ± 0.1not listed

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes)
26%
28%
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win1. FC Köln wins in 90 minutes
26%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 388 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes)
53%
49%
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to WinEintracht Frankfurt wins in 90 minutes
53%49¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 44 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
22%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
22%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 854 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawEintracht Frankfurt or 1. FC Köln wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
78%78¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 789 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to WinEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
74%72¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 55 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
47%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,072 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
96%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
96%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 377 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
4%5¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 213 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
86%
88%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
86%89¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 377 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
14%13¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
66%
70%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
66%71¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 641 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
34%31¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
45%
49%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
45%50¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
55%52¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 204 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
26%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
26%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
74%71¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
13%17¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,329 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
87%85¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 3 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
65%
70%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
65%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,076 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
35%31¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or more
11%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 1 goal · 1. FC Köln not by 2+ goals
89%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 26 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins by 3 goals or more
4%7¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,069 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on 1. FC Köln to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins or the match is drawn, or 1. FC Köln wins by 2 goals or fewer · 1. FC Köln not by 3+ goals
96%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 12 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
31%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or more
31%30¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,129 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 1.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 1 goal · Eintracht Frankfurt not by 2+ goals
69%73¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 676 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsEintracht Frankfurt wins by 3 goals or more
15%15¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 938 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Eintracht Frankfurt to Win by More Than 2.5 Goals1. FC Köln wins or the match is drawn, or Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2 goals or fewer · Eintracht Frankfurt not by 3+ goals
85%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 377 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 52.5% · draw 21.9% · away 25.6%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt eligible matches
135 (135 with xG)
1. FC Köln eligible matches
73 (73 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Eintracht FrankfurtOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctRB Leipzigaway0–61.38–3.44L
19 SeptSC Freiburghome2–22.18–3.09D
12 SeptFSV Mainz 05away3–12.04–2.12W
6 SeptFC Augsburghome1–42.22–1.13L
29 AugUnion Berlinaway3–31.47–1.84D
16 MayVfB Stuttgarthome2–22.56–1.32D
1. FC KölnOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctBorussia Mönchengladbachhome2–11.46–1.12W
19 SeptHamburger SVaway1–21.41–1.45L
12 SeptWerder Bremenhome1–11.65–1.12D
4 SeptVfB Stuttgartaway1–42.86–3.47L
29 Aug1899 Hoffenheimhome3–21.95–1.88W
16 MayBayern Münchenaway1–50.98–3.05L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT16SGEKOE-BTTS
65.3%69.5%−4.2 pts0.69 / 0.700.316,076 / 0Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
1. FC Köln to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE
25.6%28.5%−2.9 pts0.28 / 0.290.72388 / 55Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Eintracht Frankfurt to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE
52.5%48.5%+4.0 pts0.48 / 0.490.5244 / 2,072Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT16SGEKOE-TIE
21.9%23.0%−1.1 pts0.22 / 0.240.78854 / 789Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
1. FC Köln to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE2
11.2%13.0%−1.8 pts0.12 / 0.140.8888 / 26Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
1. FC Köln to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-KOE3
3.9%5.5%−1.6 pts0.04 / 0.070.961,069 / 12Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE2
31.1%28.5%+2.6 pts0.27 / 0.300.731,129 / 676Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Eintracht Frankfurt to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT16SGEKOE-SGE3
15.2%14.0%+1.2 pts0.13 / 0.150.87938 / 377Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-1
96.5%96.5%−0.0 pts0.95 / 0.980.05377 / 213Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-2
85.8%88.0%−2.2 pts0.87 / 0.890.13377 / 204Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-3
66.4%70.0%−3.6 pts0.69 / 0.710.31641 / 204Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-4
44.6%49.0%−4.4 pts0.48 / 0.500.521,129 / 204Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-5
25.9%29.5%−3.6 pts0.29 / 0.300.71750 / 2Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT16SGEKOE-6
13.2%16.0%−2.8 pts0.15 / 0.170.851,329 / 3Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:32.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home49.2%46.6% – 50.5%52.5%1.911052.5%+3.4 pts
1x2:draw23.3%22.6% – 24.3%24.7%4.051021.9%−1.4 pts
1x2:away27.8%26.7% – 29.1%29.2%3.421025.6%−2.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:09 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.568.6%66.3% – 70.2%73.5%1.36766.4%−2.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.531.4%29.8% – 33.7%34.1%2.93733.6%+2.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:10 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 3.44 · draw 4.20 · home 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.40 · draw 4.10 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 3.56 · draw 4.17 · home 1.8811/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 3.04 · draw 3.64 · home 1.9011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.90 · home 1.9111/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 3.50 · draw 4.00 · home 1.9011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 3.45 · draw 4.10 · home 1.9411/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 3.52 · draw 4.30 · home 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 3.40 · draw 4.00 · home 1.9811/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.30 · draw 3.90 · home 1.8511/10/2026, 09:31:0911/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 3.0611/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.2011/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.9311/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.8511/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 2.8211/10/2026, 09:31:1011/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:32.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:01 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Eintracht Frankfurtok11/10/2026, 01:39:22 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · 1. FC Kölnok11/10/2026, 01:39:24 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home52.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw21.9%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away25.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x74.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x247.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1278.1%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes65.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no34.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.596.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.53.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.585.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.514.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.566.4%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.533.6%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.544.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.555.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.525.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.574.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.513.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.586.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.587.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.513.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.560.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.539.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.533.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.566.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.515.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.585.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.540.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.559.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.516.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.583.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.594.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.515.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.584.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.531.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.568.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.552.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.547.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.574.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.525.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.588.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.511.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.596.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.53.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home67.2%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away32.8%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 459 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:32