La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 09:30 PDT

MalagavReal Sociedad

Malaga

28%

Draw

28%

Real Sociedad

44%

Got%OnIt gives Real Sociedad a 44% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Malaga has little or no La Liga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.0 goals for Malaga and 1.3 for Real Sociedad.
Malaga won 0 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 a game.
Real Sociedad won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 a game.

What argues against it

Malaga has little or no La Liga history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Malaga are 20th of 20 after 8 games; Real Sociedad are 8th.
Malaga have won 0 and lost 4; Real Sociedad have won 3 and lost 3.

Recent matches the model used

Malaga

D1–1v Espanyol9 Oct
L0–1at Getafe20 Sept
L1–3v Villarreal17 Sept
D1–1at Celta Vigo13 Sept
D0–0v Levante6 Sept
L0–4at Real Madrid30 Aug

Real Sociedad

W3–2v Deportivo La Coruna11 Oct
W3–2at Valencia20 Sept
L0–3v Atletico Madrid13 Sept
W3–2at Elche7 Sept
D0–0v Celta Vigo3 Sept
W2–1v Espanyol29 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT; snapshot 615, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Malaga)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Real Sociedad)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT1217 finished La Liga matches (1217 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationMalaga 9 d rest · Real Sociedad 3.0 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Malaga

8.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Alaves +5.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptLLA GetafeL 0–1counted as workload
Fri 9 OctLLH EspanyolD 1–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Fri 23 OctLLA Alaves+5.1 d
Tue 27 OctCdRA Alcazar+9.1 d
Sat 31 OctLLA Real Betis+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 10 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Malaga: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Pablo Martínez	M	82	—
Alfonso Herrero · regular	G	90	—
Fernando Calero	D	74	—
Joaquín Muñoz · regular	M	62	—
Ángel Recio · regular	D	90	—
Rafa Rodríguez	M	62	—
David Larrubia · regular	M	90	—
Rafita · regular	D	90	—
Dani Lorenzo	M	90	—
Chupe · regular	F	90	—
Puga	D	62	—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Real Sociedad

3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa League A Lillestrom +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa League −3 d before (A Union St. Gilloise) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptLLA ValenciaW 3–2counted as workload
Sun 11 OctLLH Deportivo La CorunaW 3–2counted as workload
Thu 15 OctUELA Union St. GilloiseNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Thu 22 OctUELA Lillestrom+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctLLH Levante+7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 51 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Aramburu (D) — reason unknown; O. Oskarsson (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Real Sociedad: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Pablo Marín	D	90	—
Álex Remiro · regular	G	90	—
Sergio Gómez · regular	D	90	—
M. Sarr	D	90	—
Barrenetxea	M	88	—
A. Zakharyan	F	56	—
L. Sučić · regular	F	90	0' Croatia, 11.9 d before
Gonçalo Guedes	M	56	—
Carlos Soler · regular	M	69	—
Y. Herrera · regular	M	90	—
Jon Martín · regular	D	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — Mikel Oyarzabal (90' Spain, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Malaga	28%	30%	29%
Draw	28%	27%	27%
Real Sociedad	44%	43%	44%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence8 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Malaga

Malaga: 8 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 0.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 50%, kept a clean sheet in 13%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 75%, over 2.5 in 25%.

D1–1v Espanyol9 Oct · in model evidence
L0–1at Getafe20 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3v Villarreal17 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at Celta Vigo13 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0v Levante6 Sept · in model evidence
L0–4at Real Madrid30 Aug · in model evidence

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 10%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.

W3–2v Deportivo La Coruna11 Oct · in model evidence
W3–2at Valencia20 Sept · in model evidence
L0–3v Atletico Madrid13 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2at Elche7 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0v Celta Vigo3 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1v Espanyol29 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 20:06 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	10%
1 goal	23%
2 goals	27%
3 goals	20%
4 goals	12%
5 goals	5%
6 or more	3%
Over 1.5	67%
Over 2.5	40%
Over 3.5	20%
Both teams score	46%

Malaga

Expected goals	1.00
Scores at least once	63%
Scores 2 or more	26%
Clean sheet	27%

Real Sociedad

Expected goals	1.30
Scores at least once	73%
Scores 2 or more	37%
Clean sheet	37%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 1 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season20th v 8th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Malaga

20th of 20 · 4 pts · W0 D4 L4 from 8 games · scored 4, conceded 13

Home W0 D3 L1 (scored 3, conceded 5) · Away W0 D1 L3 (scored 1, conceded 8)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 8 games

Last five league games DLLDD (most recent last)

Real Sociedad

8th of 20 · 10 pts · W3 D1 L3 from 7 games · scored 9, conceded 13

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 2, conceded 4) · Away W2 D0 L2 (scored 7, conceded 9)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 3 in 7 games

Last five league games WLWDW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Malaga to win (90 minutes)

28%

29%

YES on Malaga to WinMalaga wins in 90 minutes

28%30¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,049 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes)

44%

YES on Real Sociedad to WinReal Sociedad wins in 90 minutes

44%45¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 609 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

28%

27%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

28%27¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 267 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawMalaga or Real Sociedad wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

72%74¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 723 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Real Sociedad to WinMalaga wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

56%57¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,185 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Malaga to WinReal Sociedad wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

72%72¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,113 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

90%

94%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

90%95¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,635 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

10%8¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 636 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

67%

77%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

67%78¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 634 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

33%25¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 958 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

40%

53%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

40%54¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 713 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

60%48¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,194 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

20%

32%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

20%33¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,379 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

80%70¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,077 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

16%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

8%17¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,389 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

92%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,045 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

3%7¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 4 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

97%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

46%

57%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

46%59¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,531 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

54%44¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,327 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Malaga to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

12%

Limited evidence

YES on Malaga to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsMalaga wins by 2 goals or more

10%13¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 638 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Malaga to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Sociedad wins or the match is drawn, or Malaga wins by 1 goal · Malaga not by 2+ goals

90%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 11 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Malaga to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Malaga to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsMalaga wins by 3 goals or more

3%8¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 17 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Malaga to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Sociedad wins or the match is drawn, or Malaga wins by 2 goals or fewer · Malaga not by 3+ goals

97%97¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 119 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Real Sociedad to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

20%

22%

Limited evidence

YES on Real Sociedad to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Sociedad wins by 2 goals or more

20%23¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,464 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Real Sociedad to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsMalaga wins or the match is drawn, or Real Sociedad wins by 1 goal · Real Sociedad not by 2+ goals

80%80¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,079 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Real Sociedad to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on Real Sociedad to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Sociedad wins by 3 goals or more

7%10¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 635 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Real Sociedad to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsMalaga wins or the match is drawn, or Real Sociedad wins by 2 goals or fewer · Real Sociedad not by 3+ goals

93%93¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,118 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 28.5% · draw 28.0% · away 43.6%
Expected goals: 1.00 – 1.30
Malaga eligible matches: 8 (8 with xG)
Real Sociedad eligible matches: 122 (122 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 1217 by season 2023:380, 2024:380, 2025:380, 2026:77
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 20:06:13
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: home side has 8 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (La Liga; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 14 (forward evidence maturity: insufficient)
thin evidence: home side has 8 eligible matches
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Malaga	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Oct	Espanyol	home	1–1	0.77–1.14	D
20 Sept	Getafe	away	0–1	0.52–0.95	L
17 Sept	Villarreal	home	1–3	0.63–3.33	L
13 Sept	Celta Vigo	away	1–1	0.43–1.90	D
6 Sept	Levante	home	0–0	1.46–0.81	D
30 Aug	Real Madrid	away	0–4	0.71–2.62	L

Real Sociedad	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
11 Oct	Deportivo La Coruna	home	3–2	1.53–1.91	W
20 Sept	Valencia	away	3–2	2.65–1.55	W
13 Sept	Atletico Madrid	home	0–3	0.27–2.05	L
7 Sept	Elche	away	3–2	0.58–2.47	W
3 Sept	Celta Vigo	home	0–0	1.05–0.43	D
29 Aug	Espanyol	home	2–1	1.82–0.77	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18MCFRSO-BTTS	45.9%	57.5%	−11.6 pts	0.56 / 0.59	0.44	4,531 / 1,327	Comparable seen 32 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: insufficient

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Malaga to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF	28.5%	29.0%	−0.5 pts	0.28 / 0.30	0.72	1,049 / 1,113	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient
Real Sociedad to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO	43.6%	44.0%	−0.4 pts	0.43 / 0.45	0.57	609 / 1,185	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18MCFRSO-TIE	28.0%	26.5%	+1.5 pts	0.26 / 0.27	0.74	267 / 723	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: insufficient

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Malaga to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF2	10.4%	12.0%	−1.6 pts	0.11 / 0.13	0.89	638 / 11	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Malaga to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-MCF3	2.9%	5.5%	−2.6 pts	0.03 / 0.08	0.97	17 / 119	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Real Sociedad to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO2	20.0%	21.5%	−1.5 pts	0.20 / 0.23	0.80	1,464 / 1,079	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Real Sociedad to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18MCFRSO-RSO3	7.1%	8.5%	−1.4 pts	0.07 / 0.10	0.93	635 / 1,118	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-1	90.0%	93.5%	−3.5 pts	0.92 / 0.95	0.08	8,635 / 636	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-2	66.9%	76.5%	−9.6 pts	0.75 / 0.78	0.25	634 / 958	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-3	40.4%	53.0%	−12.6 pts	0.52 / 0.54	0.48	713 / 1,194	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-4	20.0%	31.5%	−11.5 pts	0.30 / 0.33	0.70	1,379 / 1,077	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-5	8.4%	15.5%	−7.1 pts	0.14 / 0.17	0.86	1,389 / 1,045	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18MCFRSO-6	3.0%	5.5%	−2.5 pts	0.04 / 0.07	0.96	4 / 250	Comparable seen 32 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: insufficient

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:09:16.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	30.2%	29.2% – 30.7%	32.0%	3.13	10	28.5%	−1.7 pts
1x2:draw	27.1%	25.5% – 28.1%	28.6%	3.50	10	28.0%	+0.9 pts
1x2:away	42.8%	41.4% – 43.8%	45.5%	2.20	10	43.6%	+0.8 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:34.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	53.0%	52.6% – 53.9%	55.7%	1.79	8	40.4%	−12.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	47.0%	46.1% – 47.4%	49.0%	2.04	8	59.6%	+12.7 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:34.

Every bookmaker page used (18)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.23 · draw 3.54 · home 3.20	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.10 · draw 3.60 · home 3.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.19 · draw 3.50 · home 3.26	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Match winner	away 2.14 · draw 3.17 · home 2.88	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.20 · draw 3.30 · home 3.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.20 · draw 3.50 · home 3.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.24 · draw 3.50 · home 3.15	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.29 · draw 3.64 · home 3.28	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Match winner	away 2.22 · draw 3.50 · home 3.15	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.15 · draw 3.40 · home 3.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.03	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 2.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.79 · under 2.5 2.05	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBO	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 2.08	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.86 · under 2.5 2.10	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.82 · under 2.5 2.05	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.73 · under 2.5 1.95	11/10/2026, 09:31:34	11/10/2026, 06:50:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:09:16.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:27 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Malaga	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:14 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Real Sociedad	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:18 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	28.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	28.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	43.6%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	56.4%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	71.5%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	72.0%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	45.9%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	54.1%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	90.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	10.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	66.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	33.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	40.4%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	59.6%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	20.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	80.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	8.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	91.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	3.0%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	97.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	63.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	36.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	26.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	73.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	8.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	92.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	1.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	98.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	72.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	27.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	37.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	62.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	14.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	85.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	4.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	95.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	2.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	97.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	10.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	89.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	28.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	71.5%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	56.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	43.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	80.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	20.0%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	92.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	7.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	39.5%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	60.5%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 615 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:09:16