Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 09:45 PDT

FeyenoordvComo

Feyenoord
30%
Draw
24%
Como
46%

Got%OnIt gives Como a 46% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Feyenoord and 1.7 for Como.
  • Feyenoord won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.7 a game.
  • Como won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Feyenoord are 33rd of 36 after 1 games; Como are 5th.
  • Feyenoord have won 0 and lost 1; Como have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Feyenoord

  • L1–5at Barcelona9 Sept
  • L1–2at Real Betis29 Jan
  • W3–0v Sturm Graz22 Jan
  • L3–4at FCSB11 Dec
  • L1–3v Celtic27 Nov
  • L0–2at VfB Stuttgart6 Nov

Como

  • D0–0v AS Roma11 Oct
  • L0–2at Frosinone20 Sept
  • W2–1v Parma14 Sept
  • W4–1v RB Leipzig10 Sept
  • W4–1at Genoa4 Sept
  • W2–1at Napoli30 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Feyenoord win29.5%31.9%+2.4 pts
Draw24.1%19.7%−4.4 pts
Como win46.4%48.4%+2.0 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.34 and 1.72). Feyenoord 1.34 · Como 1.72 · total 3.06 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Feyenoord–Como)

  1. 1–111.1%
  2. 1–29.3%
  3. 0–17.8%
  4. 2–17.2%
  5. 0–27.0%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Feyenoord

Expected goals
1.34
Scoring vs average
×0.70
Conceding vs average
×1.30

Como

Expected goals
1.72
Scoring vs average
×1.30
Conceding vs average
×0.70
  • Feyenoord (home): expected to score ×0.70 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.30 the average.
  • Como (away): expected to score ×1.30 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.70 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Feyenoord
29 matches (27 with xG)
Como
83 matches (81 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home29.5%under-stated by 2.6 pts on 62 matches (this competition); conservative 23.7%
1x2:draw24.1%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 16.8%
1x2:away46.4%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 59 matches (this competition); conservative 39.9%
double_chance:1x53.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x270.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes60.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no39.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.518.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.559.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.541.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.536.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.563.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.519.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.580.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.591.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.526.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.538.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.561.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.515.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.584.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.595.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.582.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.517.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.551.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.548.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.524.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.575.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.59.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.590.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.54.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.595.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.513.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.587.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.529.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.570.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.553.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.546.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.575.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.524.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.589.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.510.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home38.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away61.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.47 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 584243211273784657 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Feyenoord win29.5%29.9% ± 0.1+0.35 pts
Draw24.1%23.4% ± 0.1−0.70 pts
Como win46.4%46.7% ± 0.2+0.35 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.47 pts (btts:no); 2 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Feyenoord
17.9% ± 0.1 (exact 17.8%)
Como
26.7% ± 0.1 (exact 26.3%)

Goal difference (Feyenoord minus Como)

  1. <-50.3% ± 0.0
  2. -50.9% ± 0.0
  3. -42.8% ± 0.1
  4. -36.9% ± 0.1
  5. -214.1% ± 0.1
  6. -121.8% ± 0.1
  7. 023.4% ± 0.1
  8. 116.9% ± 0.1
  9. 28.6% ± 0.1
  10. 33.2% ± 0.1
  11. 41.0% ± 0.0
  12. 50.2% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Feyenoord 1–1 Como10.6% ± 0.111.1%
Feyenoord 1–2 Como9.2% ± 0.19.3%
Feyenoord 0–1 Como8.3% ± 0.17.8%
Feyenoord 0–2 Como7.1% ± 0.17.0%
Feyenoord 2–1 Como7.1% ± 0.17.2%

Expected goals (simulated)

Feyenoord
mean 1.33 · variance 1.34 · ± 0.004
Como
mean 1.72 · variance 1.72 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move como win by +1.6 pts (to 48.0%). Expected goals move −0.06 for Feyenoord and +0.00 for Como.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Feyenoord win29.5%28.4%−1.1 pts
Draw24.1%23.6%−0.5 pts
Como win46.4%48.0%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.721.28 – 1.73−0.06 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 75 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Feyenoord

Attack ×0.96 band 0.94–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 8.5% of goals share out

  • B. Nieuwkoop D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Smal D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Beelen Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Bos D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. van Persie F Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Watanabe D Questionable (Leg Injury) · share 8.5% · effect −4.3% · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Moder M Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Borges M Questionable (Knock) · share 8.5% · effect −4.3% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Wellenreuther)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Como

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · 2.4% of goals share out

  • M. Caqueret M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 2.4% · effect −2.4% REPORTED
  • M. Kean F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • E. Goldaniga D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Vigorito G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Kambwala D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Lahdo M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Butez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move feyenoord win by +0.7 pts (to 30.2%). Expected goals move −0.02 for Feyenoord and −0.06 for Como.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Feyenoord win29.5%30.2%+0.7 pts
Draw24.1%24.0%−0.1 pts
Como win46.4%45.8%−0.5 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.721.31 – 1.67−0.02 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 75 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 5 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Feyenoord rate ×0.98 band 0.62–1.50

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution -0.038 (-0.127 to 0.040) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.010 (-0.111 to 0.120) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.042424242424242364 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Como rate ×0.97 band 0.62–1.70

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.042424242424242364 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.001) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution 0.042 (-0.077 to 0.192) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.027 (-0.143 to 0.095) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move como win by +0.8 pts (to 47.2%). Expected goals move −0.08 for Feyenoord and −0.05 for Como.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Feyenoord win29.5%28.8%−0.7 pts
Draw24.1%24.0%−0.1 pts
Como win46.4%47.2%+0.8 pts
Expected goals1.34 – 1.721.26 – 1.67−0.08 / −0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 75 · REPORTED 14 · ESTIMATED 70 · UNKNOWN 3 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Feyenoord

Attack ×0.96 band 0.94–0.98 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.01 band 1.01–1.02 · 8.5% of goals share out

  • B. Nieuwkoop D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Smal D Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Beelen Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • J. Bos D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • S. van Persie F Missing Fixture (Inactive) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • T. Watanabe D Questionable (Leg Injury) · share 8.5% · effect −4.3% · defensive starter REPORTED
  • J. Moder M Questionable (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Borges M Questionable (Knock) · share 8.5% · effect −4.3% REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Wellenreuther)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Como

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · 2.4% of goals share out

  • M. Caqueret M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 2.4% · effect −2.4% REPORTED
  • M. Kean F Missing Fixture (Leg Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • E. Goldaniga D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Vigorito G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • W. Kambwala D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • A. Lahdo M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice J. Butez)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 5 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Feyenoord rate ×0.98 band 0.62–1.50

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution -0.038 (-0.127 to 0.040) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.010 (-0.111 to 0.120) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.042424242424242364 · contribution 0.000 (-0.003 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Como rate ×0.97 band 0.62–1.70

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.042424242424242364 · contribution -0.001 (-0.004 to 0.001) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 5 · contribution 0.042 (-0.077 to 0.192) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.8181818181818182 · contribution -0.027 (-0.143 to 0.095) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 3 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Feyenoord win29.5%29.9%+0.3 pts
Draw24.1%20.2%−3.9 pts
Como win46.4%49.9%+3.6 pts
Expected goals—1.72 – 2.24+0.38 / +0.52

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 190 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)A. Douvikas 30% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Feyenoord

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Hadj Moussa F27.2% ± 0.14.2% ± 0.10.32 ± 0.00296%
S. Steijn M13.4% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00139%
C. Tengstedt F9.8% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00134%
A. Ueda F8.7% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00143%
T. Watanabe D6.5% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00160%
L. Sauer F6.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00126%
G. Read D5.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00142%
C. Larin M5.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00126%

Como

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 87% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Douvikas F29.9% ± 0.14.9% ± 0.10.35 ± 0.00286%
N. Paz M24.4% ± 0.13.2% ± 0.10.28 ± 0.00292%
M. Baturina M20.0% ± 0.12.2% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00275%
L. Da Cunha M16.4% ± 0.11.4% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00194%
Assane Diao F13.3% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00194%
J. Ramon D8.2% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00197%
M. Perrone M6.3% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00163%
M. O. Kempf D3.1% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00126%

Run 955 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 450, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Feyenoord)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Como)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T16:45:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationFeyenoord 3 absent regulars · Como 3.3 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Feyenoord

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Real Betis +7.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Real Betis+7.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: T. Wellenreuther (G) — reason unknown; A. Ahmedhodzic (D) — reason unknown; G. Smal (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 9 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Feyenoord: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
T. ErnstG00—
M. MarmolD00—
G. ReadD00—
J. St. JusteD00—
A. Hadj Moussa · regularM00—
L. Valente · regularM00—
J. LopezM00—
NachoF00—
C. VanhoutteM00—
T. WatanabeD00—
G. ZechielM04312' Netherlands, 12.9 d before; 31' Netherlands, 9.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 43 minutes — G. Zechiel (12' Netherlands, 12.9 d before; 31' Netherlands, 9.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Como

3.3 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A A Fiorentina +3.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptSAA FrosinoneL 0–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAH AS RomaD 0–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctSAA Fiorentina+3.8 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH Manchester United+7 d
  • Sat 24 OctSAH Sassuolo+9.8 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAA Torino+13.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 26 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 10 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 86.2 CONFIRMED

Como: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
T. ChalobahD90900' England, 11 d before; 0' England, 7.9 d before
Assane Diao · regularM8888—
KaikiD9090—
Yan Couto · regularD8888—
M. Perrone · regularM8888—
N. Paz · regularM9090—
M. CaqueretM6666—
J. Butez · regularG90900' France, 11.9 d before; 0' France, 8.9 d before
T. Douvikas · regularF90977' Greece, 12.9 d before; 0' Greece, 9.9 d before
L. da Cunha · regularM7819487' France, 11.9 d before; 29' France, 8.9 d before
Jacobo Ramón Naveros · regularD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 188 minutes — M. Baturina (46' Croatia, 11 d before; 19' Croatia, 7.9 d before); T. Douvikas (7' Greece, 12.9 d before; 0' Greece, 9.9 d before); L. da Cunha (87' France, 11.9 d before; 29' France, 8.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Feyenoord

  • B. Nieuwkoop · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • G. Borges · injury / absence: Knock · Questionable
  • G. Smal · injury / absence: Ankle Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Bos · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • J. Moder · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Questionable
  • S. van Persie · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
  • T. Beelen · injury / absence: Broken Leg · Missing Fixture
  • T. Watanabe · injury / absence: Leg Injury · Questionable

Como

  • A. Lahdo · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • E. Goldaniga · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Caqueret · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • M. Kean · injury / absence: Leg Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Vigorito · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
  • W. Kambwala · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Feyenoord30%27%28%
Draw24%23%22%
Como46%50%52%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Como a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (46% vs 52%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 1 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Feyenoord

  • Feyenoord: 10 finished matches (8 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • L1–5at Barcelona9 Sept · in model evidence
  • L2–5at Fenerbahçe12 Aug · not in model evidence
  • W2–1v Fenerbahçe6 Aug · not in model evidence
  • L1–2at Inter11 Mar · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Inter5 Mar · in model evidence
  • D1–1at AC Milan18 Feb · in model evidence

Como

  • Como: 1 finished match (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 4.0 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 100%.
  • W4–1v RB Leipzig10 Sept · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more9%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.537%
Both teams score61%

Feyenoord

Expected goals1.34
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet18%

Como

Expected goals1.72
Scores at least once82%
Scores 2 or more51%
Clean sheet26%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability14 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

14 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

Feyenoord

  • B. NieuwkoopOutKnee Injury
  • G. BorgesDoubtfulKnock
  • G. SmalOutAnkle Injury
  • J. BosOutKnee Injury
  • J. ModerDoubtfulKnee Injury
  • S. van PersieOutInactive
  • T. BeelenOutBroken Leg
  • T. WatanabeDoubtfulLeg Injury

Como

  • A. LahdoOutOff the roster
  • E. GoldanigaOutOff the roster
  • M. CaqueretOutOff the roster
  • M. KeanOutLeg Injury
  • M. VigoritoOutOff the roster
  • W. KambwalaOutOff the roster

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season33rd v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Feyenoord

33rd of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 5

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

Como

5th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 4, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 4, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Feyenoord to win29.5%29.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Draw24.1%23.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 22¢
Como to win46.4%46.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw limited evidence53.6%53.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Como or draw limited evidence70.5%70.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.9%76.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Draw no bet
Feyenoord to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence38.9%39.0% ± 0.2no
Como to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence61.1%61.0% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.0%95.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.0%4.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 4¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.3%80.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 88¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.7%19.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢
Over 2.5 goals in total59.0%58.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 68¢
Under 2.5 goals in total41.0%41.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 33¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence36.7%36.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 47¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence63.3%63.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence19.5%19.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence80.5%80.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.0%8.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.0%91.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence60.9%60.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 68¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence39.1%39.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 34¢
Team goals
Feyenoord over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.7%73.3% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord under 0.5 goals limited evidence26.3%26.7% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord over 1.5 goals limited evidence38.6%38.6% ± 0.2no
Feyenoord under 1.5 goals limited evidence61.4%61.4% ± 0.2no
Feyenoord over 2.5 goals limited evidence15.1%15.1% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord under 2.5 goals limited evidence84.9%84.9% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.7%4.7% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.3%95.3% ± 0.1no
Como over 0.5 goals limited evidence82.2%82.1% ± 0.1no
Como under 0.5 goals limited evidence17.8%17.9% ± 0.1no
Como over 1.5 goals limited evidence51.4%51.4% ± 0.2no
Como under 1.5 goals limited evidence48.6%48.6% ± 0.2no
Como over 2.5 goals limited evidence24.9%24.7% ± 0.1no
Como under 2.5 goals limited evidence75.1%75.3% ± 0.1no
Como over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.7%9.6% ± 0.1no
Como under 3.5 goals limited evidence90.3%90.4% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Feyenoord to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.5%4.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 5¢
Feyenoord to win by 2 or more limited evidence13.0%13.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢
Feyenoord to win by 1 or more limited evidence29.5%29.9% ± 0.1no
Feyenoord not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence53.6%53.3% ± 0.2no
Feyenoord not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence75.1%75.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 72¢
Feyenoord not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence89.2%89.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Como to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.8%10.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Como to win by 2 or more limited evidence24.9%24.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Como to win by 1 or more limited evidence46.4%46.7% ± 0.2no
Como not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence70.5%70.1% ± 0.1no
Como not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence87.0%87.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢
Como not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.5%95.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Clean sheet
Feyenoord clean sheet grid17.8%17.9% ± 0.1no
Como clean sheet grid26.3%26.7% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.4% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord by exactly 1—16.9% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord by exactly 2—8.6% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord by exactly 3—3.2% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord by exactly 4—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
Feyenoord by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Como by exactly 1—21.8% ± 0.1not listed
Como by exactly 2—14.1% ± 0.1not listed
Como by exactly 3—6.9% ± 0.1not listed
Como by exactly 4—2.8% ± 0.1not listed
Como by exactly 5—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Feyenoord by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Como by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Feyenoord 1–1 Como—10.6% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord 1–2 Como—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord 0–1 Como—8.3% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord 0–2 Como—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
Feyenoord 2–1 Como—7.1% ± 0.1not listed

Feyenoord v Como: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Como to win (90 minutes)
46%
52%
YES on Como to WinComo wins in 90 minutes
46%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 37,882 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Feyenoord to win (90 minutes)
30%
28%
YES on Feyenoord to WinFeyenoord wins in 90 minutes
30%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 737 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
22%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%22¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 815 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawFeyenoord or Como wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%79¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 16,212 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Como to WinFeyenoord wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
54%49¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Feyenoord to WinComo wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
70%73¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,722 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%4¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,328 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
81%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,904 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
19%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 625 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
59%
68%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
59%68¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
41%33¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 644 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
37%47¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
63%54¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 609 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
27%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%29¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,661 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,969 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,599 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,701 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
61%
67%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
61%68¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5,740 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
39%34¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Winning margin
Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
25%
29%
Limited evidence
YES on Como to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsComo wins by 2 goals or more
25%30¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 857 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Como to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFeyenoord wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 1 goal · Como not by 2+ goals
75%72¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,391 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
11%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Como to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsComo wins by 3 goals or more
11%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Como to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFeyenoord wins or the match is drawn, or Como wins by 2 goals or fewer · Como not by 3+ goals
89%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,468 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Feyenoord to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
13%
12%
Limited evidence
YES on Feyenoord to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsFeyenoord wins by 2 goals or more
13%13¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 88 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Feyenoord to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsComo wins or the match is drawn, or Feyenoord wins by 1 goal · Feyenoord not by 2+ goals
87%89¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 893 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Feyenoord to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
4%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Feyenoord to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsFeyenoord wins by 3 goals or more
4%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Feyenoord to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsComo wins or the match is drawn, or Feyenoord wins by 2 goals or fewer · Feyenoord not by 3+ goals
96%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,609 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 29.5% · draw 24.1% · away 46.4%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.72
Feyenoord eligible matches
29 (27 with xG)
Como eligible matches
83 (81 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

FeyenoordOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 SeptBarcelonaaway1–5—L
29 JanReal Betisaway1–21.70–1.24L
22 JanSturm Grazhome3–01.37–0.14W
11 DecFCSBaway3–42.11–1.28L
27 NovCeltichome1–31.85–1.31L
6 NovVfB Stuttgartaway0–20.89–1.73L
ComoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctAS Romahome0–01.49–1.12D
20 SeptFrosinoneaway0–22.12–2.18L
14 SeptParmahome2–12.98–1.15W
10 SeptRB Leipzighome4–1—W
4 SeptGenoaaway4–11.78–0.78W
30 AugNapoliaway2–1—W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14FEYCOM-BTTS
60.9%67.0%—0.66 / 0.680.345,740 / 363Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Como to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-COM
46.4%51.5%−5.1 pts0.51 / 0.520.4937,882 / 0Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Feyenoord to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-FEY
29.5%27.5%+2.0 pts0.27 / 0.280.73737 / 4,722Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14FEYCOM-TIE
24.1%21.5%+2.6 pts0.21 / 0.220.79815 / 16,212Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Como to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14FEYCOM-COM2
24.9%29.0%—0.28 / 0.300.72857 / 3,391Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Como to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14FEYCOM-COM3
10.8%13.5%—0.13 / 0.140.8788 / 1,468Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Feyenoord to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14FEYCOM-FEY2
13.0%12.0%—0.11 / 0.130.8988 / 893Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Feyenoord to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14FEYCOM-FEY3
4.5%4.0%—0.03 / 0.050.970 / 6,609Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-1
95.0%96.5%—0.96 / 0.970.040 / 2,328Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-2
81.3%87.0%—0.86 / 0.880.142,904 / 625Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-3
59.0%67.5%—0.67 / 0.680.33363 / 644Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-4
36.7%46.5%—0.46 / 0.470.541 / 609Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-5
19.5%27.0%—0.25 / 0.290.7510,661 / 2,969Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14FEYCOM-6
9.0%13.5%—0.12 / 0.150.881,599 / 2,701Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:18.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home26.5%26.0% – 27.8%27.8%3.601029.5%+3.0 pts
1x2:draw23.1%21.8% – 24.4%24.4%4.101024.1%+1.0 pts
1x2:away50.5%47.8% – 51.2%53.1%1.891046.4%−4.1 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:55 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.565.7%65.0% – 67.9%70.9%1.417——
total_goals:under:2.534.3%32.1% – 35.0%36.4%2.757——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:55 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.88 · draw 4.20 · home 3.6811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.90 · draw 4.00 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.89 · draw 4.42 · home 3.5511/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 3.63 · home 3.1811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
William HillMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 4.00 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Match winneraway 1.85 · draw 4.00 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.91 · draw 4.20 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.93 · draw 4.31 · home 3.7811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.90 · draw 4.10 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 4.10 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.6811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 2.8811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.8811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 2.6811/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.47 · under 2.5 2.8011/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.41 · under 2.5 2.6211/10/2026, 09:30:5510/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:18.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:57 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Feyenoordok11/10/2026, 01:39:30 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Comook11/10/2026, 01:39:43 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home29.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.1%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away46.4%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x53.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x270.5%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.9%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes60.9%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no39.1%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.559.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.541.0%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.536.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.563.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.519.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.538.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.561.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.515.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.584.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.582.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.517.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.551.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.548.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.524.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.575.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.59.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.590.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.513.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.587.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.529.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.570.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.553.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.546.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.575.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.524.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.589.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.510.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home38.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away61.1%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 450 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:18