Got%OnIt
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Ligue 1·Sun 18 Oct, 08:15 PDT

LorientvMonaco

Lorient
32%
Draw
25%
Monaco
42%

Got%OnIt gives Monaco a 42% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Ligue 1 matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.3 goals for Lorient and 1.5 for Monaco.
  • Lorient won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 a game.
  • Monaco won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Lorient are 8th of 18 after 6 games; Monaco are 1st.
  • Lorient have won 2 and lost 2; Monaco have won 4 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Lorient

  • W1–0v Paris FC10 Oct
  • L1–2at Le Mans19 Sept
  • D2–2v Toulouse12 Sept
  • W1–0at Lens5 Sept
  • L1–2v Estac Troyes29 Aug
  • D0–0at Nice22 Aug

Monaco

  • D2–2v Toulouse10 Oct
  • W2–1v Lens18 Sept
  • D1–1at Strasbourg12 Sept
  • W2–1at Paris Saint Germain4 Sept
  • W2–0v Marseille30 Aug
  • W1–0at Le Havre23 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Lorient win32.4%32.3%−0.1 pts
Draw25.5%24.0%−1.5 pts
Monaco win42.1%43.7%+1.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.32 and 1.53). Lorient 1.32 · Monaco 1.53 · total 2.85 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Lorient–Monaco)

  1. 1–112.0%
  2. 1–29.0%
  3. 0–18.6%
  4. 2–17.7%
  5. 1–07.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Lorient

Expected goals
1.32
Scoring vs average
×0.83
Conceding vs average
×1.21

Monaco

Expected goals
1.53
Scoring vs average
×1.21
Conceding vs average
×0.83
  • Lorient (home): expected to score ×0.83 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.21 the average.
  • Monaco (away): expected to score ×1.21 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.83 the average.
  • Recent 298 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.58 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.25).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Lorient
74 matches (74 with xG)
Monaco
128 matches (127 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home32.4%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 26.5%
1x2:draw25.5%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.9%
1x2:away42.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 40.3%
double_chance:1x57.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x267.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1274.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes57.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no42.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.593.9%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.6%
total_goals:under:0.56.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.578.0%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.5%
total_goals:under:1.522.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.554.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 53.6%
total_goals:under:2.545.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.531.9%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.3%
total_goals:under:3.568.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.516.0%over-stated by 0.8 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 14.0%
total_goals:under:4.584.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.57.0%under-stated by 0.0 pts on 962 matches (this competition); conservative 6.1%
total_goals:under:5.593.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.573.2%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 72.6%
team_total:home:under:0.526.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.537.9%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 37.3%
team_total:home:under:1.562.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.514.7%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.2%
team_total:home:under:2.585.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.54.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.6%
team_total:home:under:3.595.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.578.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 77.9%
team_total:away:under:0.521.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.545.3%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.7%
team_total:away:under:1.554.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.520.0%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 19.4%
team_total:away:under:2.580.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.57.0%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.5%
team_total:away:under:3.593.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.55.0%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.1%
spread:away:+2.595.0%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.7%
spread:home:-1.514.3%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.5%
spread:away:+1.585.7%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 85.2%
spread:home:-0.532.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 30.6%
spread:away:+0.567.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.0%
spread:home:+0.557.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 57.2%
spread:away:-0.542.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.9%
spread:home:+1.579.0%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 78.4%
spread:away:-1.521.0%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 20.2%
spread:home:+2.591.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home43.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away56.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.20 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 7236231110842434229 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.21 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Lorient win32.4%32.6% ± 0.1+0.21 pts
Draw25.5%24.9% ± 0.1−0.61 pts
Monaco win42.1%42.5% ± 0.2+0.40 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.20 pts (btts:yes); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Lorient
21.7% ± 0.1 (exact 21.6%)
Monaco
26.9% ± 0.1 (exact 26.8%)

Goal difference (Lorient minus Monaco)

  1. <-50.2% ± 0.0
  2. -50.6% ± 0.0
  3. -42.0% ± 0.0
  4. -35.7% ± 0.1
  5. -212.7% ± 0.1
  6. -121.4% ± 0.1
  7. 024.9% ± 0.1
  8. 118.3% ± 0.1
  9. 29.3% ± 0.1
  10. 33.5% ± 0.1
  11. 41.1% ± 0.0
  12. 50.3% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Lorient 1–1 Monaco11.6% ± 0.112.0%
Lorient 0–1 Monaco8.9% ± 0.18.6%
Lorient 1–2 Monaco8.9% ± 0.19.0%
Lorient 1–0 Monaco7.6% ± 0.17.3%
Lorient 2–1 Monaco7.6% ± 0.17.7%

Expected goals (simulated)

Lorient
mean 1.32 · variance 1.33 · ± 0.004
Monaco
mean 1.54 · variance 1.54 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 24.9%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Lorient and +0.00 for Monaco.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lorient win32.4%32.7%+0.3 pts
Draw25.5%24.9%−0.6 pts
Monaco win42.1%42.4%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.32 – 1.531.32 – 1.53+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 117 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 29 h before as-of.

Lorient

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Y. Mvogo)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Monaco

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hradecky)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move lorient win by +1.5 pts (to 33.9%). Expected goals move +0.01 for Lorient and −0.06 for Monaco.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lorient win32.4%33.9%+1.5 pts
Draw25.5%25.2%−0.3 pts
Monaco win42.1%40.9%−1.3 pts
Expected goals1.32 – 1.531.32 – 1.48+0.01 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 117 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 29 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Lorient rate ×1.01 band 0.70–1.46

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Monaco rate ×0.96 band 0.65–1.44

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move lorient win by +1.5 pts (to 33.9%). Expected goals move +0.01 for Lorient and −0.06 for Monaco.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Lorient win32.4%33.9%+1.5 pts
Draw25.5%25.2%−0.3 pts
Monaco win42.1%40.9%−1.3 pts
Expected goals1.32 – 1.531.32 – 1.48+0.01 / −0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 117 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 50 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 29 h before as-of.

Lorient

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Y. Mvogo)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Monaco

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice L. Hradecky)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Lorient rate ×1.01 band 0.70–1.46

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Monaco rate ×0.96 band 0.65–1.44

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Lorient win32.4%32.3%−0.1 pts
Draw25.5%24.8%−0.7 pts
Monaco win42.1%42.9%+0.8 pts
Expected goals—1.31 – 1.55−0.00 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 605 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)F. Balogun 20% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Lorient

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 46% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
J. Makengo M11.7% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00196%
N. Cadiou M10.9% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.001100%
A. Kouassi M4.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.001100%
M. Kone F3.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00150%
A. Avom M3.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00138%
G. Bernardeau M2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00060%
P. Katseris M1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00061%
I. Balde F1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00032%

Monaco

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 83% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
F. Balogun F19.7% ± 0.12.1% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.0017%
P. Brunner F16.9% ± 0.11.5% ± 0.00.18 ± 0.00171%
A. Golovin M14.9% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00192%
L. Camara M14.0% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.001100%
D. Zakaria D6.1% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.001100%
A. Fati F5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.0014%
S. Idumbo M4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00153%
E. Dier D4.3% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00193%

Run 999 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 494, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 11:15 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Monaco)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lorient)Sun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 11:37 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Ligue 1 matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationLorient 1 absent regular · Monaco 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:10 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lorient

7.9 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Angers +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptL1A Le MansL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H Paris FCW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctL1A Angers+7 d
  • Sat 31 OctL1H Stade Brestois 29+13.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 40 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Katseris (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Lorient: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
N. Adjei · regularD090—
A. GeorgenM078—
Y. Mvogo · regularG018090' Switzerland, 11.9 d before
D. SyllaM090—
N. Cadiou · regularM090—
M. KoneF066—
S. TouréD087—
K. Kouassi · regularM090—
J. Makengo · regularM090—
I. JensenM066—
M. Talbi · regularD090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 91 minutes — Y. Mvogo (90' Switzerland, 11.9 d before); S. Kuzmić (1' Slovenia, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Monaco

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Europa Conference League H SC Freiburg +4.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Europa Conference League −2.9 d before (A CSKA Sofia) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptL1H LensW 2–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctL1H ToulouseD 2–2counted as workload
  • Thu 15 OctUECLA CSKA SofiaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Thu 22 OctUECLH SC Freiburg+4.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctL1H Lille+6.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 52 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Brunner (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Monaco: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
D. Zakaria · regularM051—
Flávio Nazinho · regularD090—
E. Dier · regularD090—
Sadibou Sané · regularD090—
Vanderson · regularD075—
M. AblineF075—
L. Hrádecký · regularG018090' Finland, 11.9 d before
E. DiopM058—
M. DetourbetM058—
A. Golovin · regularM090—
L. Camara · regularM090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — L. Hrádecký (90' Finland, 11.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Lorient32%27%26%
Draw25%27%28%
Monaco42%46%47%
Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 7 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 19 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Lorient a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (32% vs 26%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lorient

  • Lorient: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 40%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • W1–0v Paris FC10 Oct · in model evidence
  • L1–2at Le Mans19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Toulouse12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Lens5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Estac Troyes29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D0–0at Nice22 Aug · in model evidence

Monaco

  • Monaco: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D2–2v Toulouse10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Lens18 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Strasbourg12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Paris Saint Germain4 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Marseille30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Le Havre23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals6%
1 goal16%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more7%
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Both teams score58%

Lorient

Expected goals1.32
Scores at least once73%
Scores 2 or more38%
Clean sheet22%

Monaco

Expected goals1.53
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more45%
Clean sheet27%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 1st

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lorient

8th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 6, conceded 6

Home W1 D1 L1 (scored 4, conceded 4) · Away W1 D1 L1 (scored 2, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 6 games

Last five league games WLDWL (most recent last)

Monaco

1st of 18 · 14 pts · W4 D2 L0 from 6 games · scored 10, conceded 5

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 6, conceded 3) · Away W2 D1 L0 (scored 4, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games DWDWW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 12 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Lorient to win32.4%32.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Draw25.5%24.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Monaco to win42.1%42.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Double chance
Lorient or draw limited evidence57.9%57.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Monaco or draw limited evidence67.6%67.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Not a draw limited evidence74.5%75.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Draw no bet
Lorient to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence43.5%43.4% ± 0.2no
Monaco to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence56.5%56.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence93.9%94.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 94¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence6.1%5.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence78.0%77.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 75¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence22.0%22.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 27¢
Over 2.5 goals in total54.2%54.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 50¢
Under 2.5 goals in total45.8%45.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 52¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence31.9%32.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 29¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence68.1%67.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence16.0%16.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 14¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence84.0%83.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 88¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence7.0%7.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence93.0%93.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence57.7%57.2% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 56¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence42.3%42.8% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Team goals
Lorient over 0.5 goals limited evidence73.2%73.1% ± 0.1no
Lorient under 0.5 goals limited evidence26.8%26.9% ± 0.1no
Lorient over 1.5 goals limited evidence37.9%38.0% ± 0.2no
Lorient under 1.5 goals limited evidence62.1%62.0% ± 0.2no
Lorient over 2.5 goals limited evidence14.7%14.7% ± 0.1no
Lorient under 2.5 goals limited evidence85.3%85.3% ± 0.1no
Lorient over 3.5 goals limited evidence4.5%4.5% ± 0.1no
Lorient under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.5%95.5% ± 0.1no
Monaco over 0.5 goals limited evidence78.4%78.3% ± 0.1no
Monaco under 0.5 goals limited evidence21.6%21.7% ± 0.1no
Monaco over 1.5 goals limited evidence45.3%45.5% ± 0.2no
Monaco under 1.5 goals limited evidence54.7%54.5% ± 0.2no
Monaco over 2.5 goals limited evidence20.0%20.1% ± 0.1no
Monaco under 2.5 goals limited evidence80.0%79.9% ± 0.1no
Monaco over 3.5 goals limited evidence7.0%7.1% ± 0.1no
Monaco under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.0%92.9% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Lorient to win by 3 or more limited evidence5.0%5.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Lorient to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.3%14.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Lorient to win by 1 or more limited evidence32.4%32.6% ± 0.1no
Lorient not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence57.9%57.5% ± 0.2no
Lorient not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence79.0%78.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Lorient not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence91.7%91.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Monaco to win by 3 or more limited evidence8.3%8.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Monaco to win by 2 or more limited evidence21.0%21.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 26¢
Monaco to win by 1 or more limited evidence42.1%42.5% ± 0.2no
Monaco not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence67.6%67.4% ± 0.1no
Monaco not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.7%85.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Monaco not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.0%95.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Clean sheet
Lorient clean sheet grid21.6%21.7% ± 0.1no
Monaco clean sheet grid26.8%26.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.9% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient by exactly 1—18.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient by exactly 2—9.3% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient by exactly 3—3.5% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient by exactly 4—1.1% ± 0.0not listed
Lorient by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Monaco by exactly 1—21.4% ± 0.1not listed
Monaco by exactly 2—12.7% ± 0.1not listed
Monaco by exactly 3—5.7% ± 0.1not listed
Monaco by exactly 4—2.0% ± 0.0not listed
Monaco by exactly 5—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
Lorient by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Monaco by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Lorient 1–1 Monaco—11.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient 0–1 Monaco—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient 1–2 Monaco—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient 1–0 Monaco—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Lorient 2–1 Monaco—7.6% ± 0.1not listed

Lorient v Monaco: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Monaco to win (90 minutes)
42%
47%
YES on Monaco to WinMonaco wins in 90 minutes
42%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,596 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Lorient to win (90 minutes)
32%
26%
YES on Lorient to WinLorient wins in 90 minutes
32%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,334 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%29¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,388 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawLorient or Monaco wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%73¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 551 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Monaco to WinLorient wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
58%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,434 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lorient to WinMonaco wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
68%75¢
Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
94%
93%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
94%94¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 413 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
6%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 831 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
78%
74%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
78%75¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 538 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
22%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 256 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
54%
49%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
54%50¢
Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
46%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 836 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
32%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
32%29¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 417 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
68%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,383 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
13%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
16%14¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 918 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
84%88¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 414 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
7%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 505 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
93%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 661 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
58%
54%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
58%56¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 914 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
42%48¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,906 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Winning margin
Monaco to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
25%
Limited evidence
YES on Monaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsMonaco wins by 2 goals or more
21%26¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 916 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Monaco to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLorient wins or the match is drawn, or Monaco wins by 1 goal · Monaco not by 2+ goals
79%77¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Monaco to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Monaco to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsMonaco wins by 3 goals or more
8%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 918 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Monaco to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLorient wins or the match is drawn, or Monaco wins by 2 goals or fewer · Monaco not by 3+ goals
92%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 851 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lorient to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Lorient to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLorient wins by 2 goals or more
14%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 821 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lorient to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsMonaco wins or the match is drawn, or Lorient wins by 1 goal · Lorient not by 2+ goals
86%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 851 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Lorient to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on Lorient to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLorient wins by 3 goals or more
5%7¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
NO on Lorient to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsMonaco wins or the match is drawn, or Lorient wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lorient not by 3+ goals
95%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 500 contracts at the ask · quote 19 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 32.4% · draw 25.5% · away 42.1%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.53
Lorient eligible matches
74 (74 with xG)
Monaco eligible matches
128 (127 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Ligue 1; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 7% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

LorientOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctParis FChome1–00.60–0.99W
19 SeptLe Mansaway1–20.97–0.92L
12 SeptToulousehome2–20.93–1.63D
5 SeptLensaway1–01.60–1.24W
29 AugEstac Troyeshome1–21.15–2.12L
22 AugNiceaway0–01.28–1.05D
MonacoOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctToulousehome2–21.25–1.49D
18 SeptLenshome2–11.75–1.19W
12 SeptStrasbourgaway1–1—D
4 SeptParis Saint Germainaway2–10.51–2.32W
30 AugMarseillehome2–01.72–1.40W
23 AugLe Havreaway1–01.39–0.60W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1BTTS-26OCT18FCLASM-BTTS
57.7%54.0%+3.7 pts0.52 / 0.560.48914 / 5,906Comparable
seen 19 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Monaco to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM
42.1%47.0%−4.9 pts0.46 / 0.480.541,596 / 2,434Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Lorient to win (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL
32.4%25.5%+6.9 pts0.25 / 0.260.755,334 / 0Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1GAME-26OCT18FCLASM-TIE
25.5%28.0%−2.5 pts0.27 / 0.290.735,388 / 551Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Monaco to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM2
21.0%24.5%−3.5 pts0.23 / 0.260.77916 / 8Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Monaco to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-ASM3
8.3%9.0%−0.7 pts0.07 / 0.110.93918 / 851Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lorient to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL2
14.3%9.5%+4.8 pts0.08 / 0.110.92821 / 851Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Lorient to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26OCT18FCLASM-FCL3
5.0%4.5%+0.5 pts0.02 / 0.070.9825 / 500Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-1
93.9%92.5%+1.4 pts0.91 / 0.940.09413 / 831Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-2
78.0%74.0%+4.0 pts0.73 / 0.750.27538 / 256Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-3
54.2%49.0%+5.2 pts0.48 / 0.500.520 / 836Comparable
seen 19 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-4
31.9%27.5%+4.4 pts0.26 / 0.290.74417 / 1,383Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-5
16.0%13.0%+3.0 pts0.12 / 0.140.88918 / 414Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26OCT18FCLASM-6
7.0%5.0%+2.0 pts0.04 / 0.060.96505 / 661Comparable
seen 19 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:10:09.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home26.8%25.4% – 28.4%28.6%3.50932.4%+5.6 pts
1x2:draw26.9%25.6% – 28.2%28.2%3.55925.5%−1.5 pts
1x2:away46.1%45.1% – 47.3%48.8%2.05942.1%−4.0 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:30.

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.551.0%50.0% – 52.7%53.2%1.88754.2%+3.2 pts
total_goals:under:2.549.0%47.3% – 50.0%51.3%1.95745.8%−3.2 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 11:37:30.

Every bookmaker page used (16)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.04 · draw 3.56 · home 3.6811/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.95 · draw 3.60 · home 3.4011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.37 · home 3.7411/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOMatch winneraway 1.96 · draw 3.23 · home 3.2211/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
William HillMatch winneraway 2.00 · draw 3.30 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.60 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.06 · draw 3.55 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.66 · home 3.7811/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.07 · draw 3.50 · home 3.5511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.84 · under 2.5 1.9911/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.88 · under 2.5 1.9611/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9111/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.90 · under 2.5 2.0511/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 1.9311/10/2026, 11:37:3011/10/2026, 09:46:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:10:09.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:23 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 11:37:10 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Lorientok11/10/2026, 11:37:19 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Monacook11/10/2026, 11:37:17 (Last checked 12 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home32.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw25.5%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away42.1%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x57.9%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x267.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1274.5%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes57.7%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no42.3%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.578.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.522.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.554.2%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.545.8%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.531.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.568.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.516.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.584.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.57.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.593.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.573.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.526.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.537.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.562.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.514.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.585.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.54.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.595.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.545.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.554.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.57.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.593.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.514.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.585.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.532.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.567.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.557.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.542.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.579.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.521.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home43.5%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away56.5%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 494 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:10:09