Got%OnIt
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La Liga·Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PDT

ValenciavAthletic Club

Valencia
35%
Draw
29%
Athletic Club
36%

Got%OnIt gives Athletic Club a 36% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 3.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished La Liga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.1 goals for Valencia and 1.1 for Athletic Club.
  • Valencia won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 a game.
  • Athletic Club won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Valencia are 19th of 20 after 7 games; Athletic Club are 9th.
  • Valencia have won 1 and lost 5; Athletic Club have won 2 and lost 2.
Recent matches the model used

Valencia

  • D2–2at Racing Santander11 Oct
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad20 Sept
  • W1–0at Alaves15 Sept
  • L0–1at Sevilla11 Sept
  • L0–5v Barcelona6 Sept
  • L1–3at Deportivo La Coruna30 Aug

Athletic Club

  • D0–0v Alaves19 Sept
  • D1–1v Elche12 Sept
  • W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept
  • W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug
  • L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug
  • L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Valencia win35.3%36.1%+0.8 pts
Draw29.2%28.5%−0.7 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%35.5%−0.1 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.14 and 1.15). Valencia 1.14 · Athletic Club 1.15 · total 2.29 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Valencia–Athletic Club)

  1. 1–113.6%
  2. 0–111.3%
  3. 1–011.2%
  4. 0–010.5%
  5. 1–27.6%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Valencia

Expected goals
1.14
Scoring vs average
×0.71
Conceding vs average
×0.99

Athletic Club

Expected goals
1.15
Scoring vs average
×0.99
Conceding vs average
×0.71
  • Valencia (home): expected to score ×0.71 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.99 the average.
  • Athletic Club (away): expected to score ×0.99 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.71 the average.
  • Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Valencia
122 matches (122 with xG)
Athletic Club
142 matches (142 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home35.3%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 29.3%
1x2:draw29.2%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 26.5%
1x2:away35.6%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 32.6%
double_chance:1x64.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x264.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1270.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes46.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no53.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.589.5%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 89.1%
total_goals:under:0.510.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.567.0%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 66.3%
total_goals:under:1.533.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.540.1%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 39.4%
total_goals:under:2.559.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.519.8%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 19.3%
total_goals:under:3.580.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.58.2%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 7.4%
total_goals:under:4.591.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.52.9%under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 2.4%
total_goals:under:5.597.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.568.0%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.4%
team_total:home:under:0.532.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.531.6%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.0%
team_total:home:under:1.568.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.510.8%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.4%
team_total:home:under:2.589.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.52.9%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.1%
team_total:home:under:3.597.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.568.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.6%
team_total:away:under:0.531.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.531.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.2%
team_total:away:under:1.568.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.510.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 10.5%
team_total:away:under:2.589.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.52.9%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.5%
team_total:away:under:3.597.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.54.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.7%
spread:away:+2.595.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.1%
spread:home:-1.514.6%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 12.7%
spread:away:+1.585.4%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.9%
spread:home:-0.535.3%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 33.4%
spread:away:+0.564.7%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.1%
spread:home:+0.564.4%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 63.8%
spread:away:-0.535.6%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 34.3%
spread:home:+1.585.2%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 84.7%
spread:away:-1.514.8%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.0%
spread:home:+2.595.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home49.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away50.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.27 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6795601697606483382 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.16 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Valencia win35.3%35.4% ± 0.2+0.17 pts
Draw29.2%28.6% ± 0.1−0.58 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%36.0% ± 0.2+0.41 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.27 pts (team_total:away:over:2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Valencia
31.8% ± 0.1 (exact 31.8%)
Athletic Club
32.0% ± 0.1 (exact 32.0%)

Goal difference (Valencia minus Athletic Club)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.2% ± 0.0
  3. -40.9% ± 0.0
  4. -33.5% ± 0.1
  5. -210.2% ± 0.1
  6. -121.0% ± 0.1
  7. 028.6% ± 0.1
  8. 120.8% ± 0.1
  9. 210.1% ± 0.1
  10. 33.4% ± 0.1
  11. 40.9% ± 0.0
  12. 50.2% ± 0.0
  13. >50.0% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Valencia 1–1 Athletic Club13.3% ± 0.113.6%
Valencia 0–1 Athletic Club11.6% ± 0.111.3%
Valencia 1–0 Athletic Club11.6% ± 0.111.2%
Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club10.2% ± 0.110.5%
Valencia 1–2 Athletic Club7.5% ± 0.17.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

Valencia
mean 1.14 · variance 1.15 · ± 0.003
Athletic Club
mean 1.15 · variance 1.16 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 28.5%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Valencia and +0.00 for Athletic Club.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Valencia win35.3%35.6%+0.3 pts
Draw29.2%28.5%−0.7 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%35.9%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.14 – 1.151.14 – 1.15+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 5 h before as-of.

Valencia

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: L. RiojaESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Dimitrievski)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Athletic Club

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: O. Sancet, N. Williams, A. DjaloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice U. Simon)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move valencia win by +2.3 pts (to 37.6%). Expected goals move +0.04 for Valencia and −0.04 for Athletic Club.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Valencia win35.3%37.6%+2.3 pts
Draw29.2%28.5%−0.7 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%34.0%−1.6 pts
Expected goals1.14 – 1.151.18 – 1.10+0.04 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 5 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Valencia rate ×1.03 band 0.74–1.43

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Athletic Club rate ×0.96 band 0.73–1.29

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move valencia win by +2.3 pts (to 37.6%). Expected goals move +0.04 for Valencia and −0.04 for Athletic Club.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Valencia win35.3%37.6%+2.3 pts
Draw29.2%28.5%−0.7 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%34.0%−1.6 pts
Expected goals1.14 – 1.151.18 – 1.10+0.04 / −0.04

Data labels: CONFIRMED 127 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 54 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 5 h before as-of.

Valencia

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: L. RiojaESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice S. Dimitrievski)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Athletic Club

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: O. Sancet, N. Williams, A. DjaloESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice U. Simon)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • no schedule or workload signal differs from the average match

Valencia rate ×1.03 band 0.74–1.43

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution -0.002 (-0.010 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution 0.042 (-0.093 to 0.131) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED

Athletic Club rate ×0.96 band 0.73–1.29

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -2 · contribution -0.027 (-0.076 to 0.080) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.1191919191919193 · contribution 0.001 (-0.008 to 0.010) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Valencia win35.3%35.3%+0.0 pts
Draw29.2%28.5%−0.7 pts
Athletic Club win35.6%36.3%+0.7 pts
Expected goals—1.13 – 1.15−0.01 / +0.01

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 583 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)G. Guruzeta 22% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Valencia

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 60% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
H. Duro F12.6% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00167%
J. Guerra F10.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.001100%
G. Rodriguez M8.9% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00172%
L. Rioja F5.4% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00114%
Pepelu M4.4% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00197%
D. Raba F2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00022%
J. Gaya D1.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00071%
D. Otorbi F1.5% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00021%

Athletic Club

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 93% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
G. Guruzeta F22.2% ± 0.12.7% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00230%
R. Navarro M19.1% ± 0.11.9% ± 0.00.21 ± 0.00179%
O. Sancet M14.8% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00186%
N. Williams M13.5% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00167%
I. Williams M7.8% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00197%
A. Paredes D5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00147%
A. Berenguer M5.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00127%
M. Jauregizar M3.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00145%

Run 988 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 483, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Athletic Club)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Valencia)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationValencia 6 d rest · Athletic Club 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:09 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Valencia

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Villarreal +6.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptLLH Real SociedadL 2–3counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctLLA Racing SantanderD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctLLH Villarreal+6.9 d
  • Wed 28 OctCdRA Tavernes+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 48 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 9 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 79.3 CONFIRMED

Valencia: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
G. Rodríguez · regularM9090—
Hugo Duro · regularF9090—
Javi Guerra · regularM8585—
F. Ugrinic · regularM5858—
S. Dimitrievski · regularG9018090' FYR Macedonia, 11 d before
Dani RabaM5858—
J. de HaasD9090—
Pepelu · regularD9090—
Pablo MaffeoD8686—
M. DiakhabyD4545—
José GayàD9090—

International duty in 14 days: 1 player, 90 minutes — S. Dimitrievski (90' FYR Macedonia, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Athletic Club

28.2 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 1 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga A Levante +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptLLH AlavesD 0–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLA Rayo VallecanoINTINT

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctLLA Levante+4 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLH Getafe+7.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 19 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 55 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: G. Guruzeta (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Athletic Club: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
I. Ruiz de Galarreta · regularM00—
A. ParedesD00—
O. Sancet · regularM00—
Y. Berchiche · regularD00—
J. Louis-JeanD00—
U. Simon · regularG09090' Spain, 11 d before
I. Williams · regularF00—
N. WilliamsM00—
R. Navarro · regularM00—
M. JauregizarM00—
A. Laporte · regularD09090' Spain, 11 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 180 minutes — U. Simon (90' Spain, 11 d before); A. Laporte (90' Spain, 11 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Valencia35%27%25%
Draw29%28%27%
Athletic Club36%45%46%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Athletic Club a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (36% vs 46%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Valencia

  • Valencia: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D2–2at Racing Santander11 Oct · in model evidence
  • L2–3v Real Sociedad20 Sept · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Alaves15 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1at Sevilla11 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–5v Barcelona6 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Deportivo La Coruna30 Aug · in model evidence

Athletic Club

  • Athletic Club: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 60%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 40%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 30%.
  • D0–0v Alaves19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Elche12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Atletico Madrid5 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Celta Vigo30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2at Barcelona27 Aug · in model evidence
  • L1–3v Sevilla22 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal23%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more3%
Over 1.567%
Over 2.540%
Over 3.520%
Both teams score47%

Valencia

Expected goals1.14
Scores at least once68%
Scores 2 or more32%
Clean sheet32%

Athletic Club

Expected goals1.15
Scores at least once68%
Scores 2 or more32%
Clean sheet32%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season19th v 9th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Valencia

19th of 20 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L5 from 7 games · scored 4, conceded 13

Home W0 D1 L3 (scored 2, conceded 9) · Away W1 D0 L2 (scored 2, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 4 in 7 games

Last five league games LWLLL (most recent last)

Athletic Club

9th of 20 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L2 from 6 games · scored 7, conceded 6

Home W1 D2 L1 (scored 5, conceded 4) · Away W1 D0 L1 (scored 2, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 2 in 6 games

Last five league games DDWWL (most recent last)

Table Last checked 21 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Valencia to win35.3%35.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 26¢
Draw29.2%28.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Athletic Club to win35.6%36.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 47¢
Double chance
Valencia or draw limited evidence64.4%64.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 55¢
Athletic Club or draw limited evidence64.7%64.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 76¢
Not a draw limited evidence70.8%71.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 74¢
Draw no bet
Valencia to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence49.8%49.6% ± 0.2no
Athletic Club to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence50.2%50.4% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence89.5%89.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 93¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence10.5%10.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 9¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence67.0%66.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 74¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence33.0%33.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 29¢
Over 2.5 goals in total40.1%40.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Under 2.5 goals in total59.9%60.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence19.8%20.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence80.2%80.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 76¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence8.2%8.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence91.8%91.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence2.9%3.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence97.1%96.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence46.8%46.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence53.2%53.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Team goals
Valencia over 0.5 goals limited evidence68.0%68.0% ± 0.1no
Valencia under 0.5 goals limited evidence32.0%32.0% ± 0.1no
Valencia over 1.5 goals limited evidence31.6%31.6% ± 0.1no
Valencia under 1.5 goals limited evidence68.4%68.4% ± 0.1no
Valencia over 2.5 goals limited evidence10.8%10.8% ± 0.1no
Valencia under 2.5 goals limited evidence89.2%89.2% ± 0.1no
Valencia over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.9%2.9% ± 0.1no
Valencia under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.1%97.1% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals limited evidence68.2%68.2% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals limited evidence31.8%31.8% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals limited evidence31.8%31.9% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals limited evidence68.2%68.1% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals limited evidence10.9%11.2% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals limited evidence89.1%88.8% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals limited evidence2.9%3.0% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals limited evidence97.1%97.0% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Valencia to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.6%4.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
Valencia to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.6%14.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Valencia to win by 1 or more limited evidence35.3%35.4% ± 0.2no
Valencia not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence64.4%64.0% ± 0.2no
Valencia not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.2%85.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Valencia not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.3%95.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Athletic Club to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.7%4.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢
Athletic Club to win by 2 or more limited evidence14.8%14.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Athletic Club to win by 1 or more limited evidence35.6%36.0% ± 0.2no
Athletic Club not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence64.7%64.6% ± 0.2no
Athletic Club not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence85.4%85.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Athletic Club not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.4%95.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 99¢
Clean sheet
Valencia clean sheet grid31.8%31.8% ± 0.1no
Athletic Club clean sheet grid32.0%32.0% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—28.6% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia by exactly 1—20.8% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia by exactly 2—10.1% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia by exactly 3—3.4% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Valencia by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Athletic Club by exactly 1—21.0% ± 0.1not listed
Athletic Club by exactly 2—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Athletic Club by exactly 3—3.5% ± 0.1not listed
Athletic Club by exactly 4—0.9% ± 0.0not listed
Athletic Club by exactly 5—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Valencia by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Athletic Club by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Valencia 1–1 Athletic Club—13.3% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia 0–1 Athletic Club—11.6% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia 1–0 Athletic Club—11.6% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club—10.2% ± 0.1not listed
Valencia 1–2 Athletic Club—7.5% ± 0.1not listed

Valencia v Athletic Club: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Athletic Club to win (90 minutes)
36%
46%
YES on Athletic Club to WinAthletic Club wins in 90 minutes
36%47¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
29%
27%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
29%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 531 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Valencia to win (90 minutes)
35%
25%
YES on Valencia to WinValencia wins in 90 minutes
35%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 134 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawValencia or Athletic Club wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
71%74¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 7,679 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Athletic Club to WinValencia wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
64%55¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,619 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Valencia to WinAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
65%76¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,708 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
92%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 757 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 767 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
67%
73%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
67%74¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 934 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
33%29¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,544 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
40%
47%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
40%48¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 944 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
60%54¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 2,618 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
26%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
20%27¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,697 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
80%76¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,645 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
8%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 775 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
92%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,147 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,553 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 250 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
47%
52%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
47%53¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
53%49¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,215 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Winning margin
Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins by 2 goals or more
15%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,582 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsValencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 1 goal · Athletic Club not by 2+ goals
85%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 8,367 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins by 3 goals or more
5%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 837 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Athletic Club to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsValencia wins or the match is drawn, or Athletic Club wins by 2 goals or fewer · Athletic Club not by 3+ goals
95%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
15%
9%
Limited evidence
YES on Valencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsValencia wins by 2 goals or more
15%10¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 737 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Valencia to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 1 goal · Valencia not by 2+ goals
85%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on Valencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsValencia wins by 3 goals or more
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 133 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
NO on Valencia to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAthletic Club wins or the match is drawn, or Valencia wins by 2 goals or fewer · Valencia not by 3+ goals
95%99¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,687 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 35.3% · draw 29.2% · away 35.6%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.15
Valencia eligible matches
122 (122 with xG)
Athletic Club eligible matches
142 (142 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 10% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

ValenciaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctRacing Santanderaway2–21.10–1.32D
20 SeptReal Sociedadhome2–31.55–2.65L
15 SeptAlavesaway1–00.65–1.05W
11 SeptSevillaaway0–10.10–0.93L
6 SeptBarcelonahome0–50.66–4.08L
30 AugDeportivo La Corunaaway1–31.40–1.42L
Athletic ClubOpponentVenueScorexGResult
19 SeptAlaveshome0–01.62–0.05D
12 SeptElchehome1–12.39–0.84D
5 SeptAtletico Madridhome3–01.41–1.02W
30 AugCelta Vigoaway2–02.78–0.75W
27 AugBarcelonaaway0–20.25–4.23L
22 AugSevillahome1–31.25–0.41L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT17VCFATH-BTTS
46.8%52.0%−5.2 pts0.51 / 0.530.49367 / 1,215Comparable
seen 28 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Athletic Club to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH
35.6%46.0%−10.4 pts0.45 / 0.470.55330 / 1,619Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Valencia to win (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF
35.3%25.0%+10.3 pts0.24 / 0.260.76134 / 1,708Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT17VCFATH-TIE
29.2%27.0%+2.2 pts0.26 / 0.280.74531 / 7,679Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Athletic Club to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH2
14.8%22.5%−7.7 pts0.21 / 0.240.791,582 / 8,367Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Athletic Club to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-ATH3
4.7%8.5%−3.8 pts0.07 / 0.100.93837 / 750Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Valencia to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF2
14.6%9.0%+5.6 pts0.08 / 0.100.92737 / 25Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Valencia to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT17VCFATH-VCF3
4.6%3.5%+1.1 pts0.01 / 0.060.99133 / 1,687Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-1
89.5%92.0%−2.5 pts0.91 / 0.930.09757 / 767Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-2
67.0%72.5%−5.5 pts0.71 / 0.740.29934 / 1,544Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-3
40.1%47.0%−6.9 pts0.46 / 0.480.54944 / 2,618Comparable
seen 28 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-4
19.8%25.5%−5.7 pts0.24 / 0.270.761,697 / 2,645Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-5
8.2%11.0%−2.8 pts0.10 / 0.120.90775 / 1,147Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT17VCFATH-6
2.9%4.0%−1.1 pts0.02 / 0.060.981,553 / 250Comparable
seen 28 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:09:34.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home27.1%25.9% – 28.2%28.6%3.501035.3%+8.1 pts
1x2:draw27.8%27.1% – 28.5%29.4%3.401029.2%+1.4 pts
1x2:away45.1%44.4% – 46.2%48.2%2.081035.6%−9.5 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.547.0%45.0% – 47.4%49.3%2.03840.1%−6.9 pts
total_goals:under:2.553.0%52.6% – 55.0%55.6%1.80859.9%+6.9 pts

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.12 · draw 3.48 · home 3.5211/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.40 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.06 · draw 3.41 · home 3.6811/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBOMatch winneraway 1.97 · draw 3.11 · home 3.3411/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
William HillMatch winneraway 2.05 · draw 3.30 · home 3.4011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365Match winneraway 2.10 · draw 3.40 · home 3.3011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.09 · draw 3.45 · home 3.5511/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.18 · draw 3.58 · home 3.6211/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.12 · draw 3.40 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.00 · draw 3.25 · home 3.5011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.03 · under 2.5 1.8011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.7511/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.03 · under 2.5 1.8211/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.13 · under 2.5 1.7411/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.00 · under 2.5 1.8011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.10 · under 2.5 1.8611/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 2.05 · under 2.5 1.8011/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.95 · under 2.5 1.7311/10/2026, 09:31:2411/10/2026, 06:50:16

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:09:34.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:11 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 21 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Valenciaok11/10/2026, 01:39:14 (Last checked 21 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Athletic Clubok11/10/2026, 01:39:13 (Last checked 21 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home35.3%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw29.2%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away35.6%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x64.4%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x264.7%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1270.8%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes46.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no53.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.589.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.510.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.567.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.533.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.540.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.559.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.519.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.580.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.58.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.591.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.568.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.532.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.531.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.568.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.510.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.589.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.568.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.531.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.531.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.568.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.510.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.589.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.52.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.597.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.54.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.595.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.514.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.585.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.535.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.564.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.564.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.535.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.585.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.514.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home49.8%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away50.2%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 483 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:09:34