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UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FC

Shakhtar Donetsk
45%
Draw
24%
AEK Athens FC
31%

Got%OnIt gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 45% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.4 for AEK Athens FC.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 a game.
  • AEK Athens FC won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Shakhtar Donetsk are 18th of 36 after 1 games; AEK Athens FC are 16th.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk have won 0 and lost 0; AEK Athens FC have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • D1–1at PSV Eindhoven10 Sept
  • L1–2at Crystal Palace7 May
  • L1–3v Crystal Palace30 Apr
  • D2–2at AZ Alkmaar16 Apr
  • W3–0v AZ Alkmaar9 Apr
  • L1–2v Lech Poznan19 Mar

AEK Athens FC

  • W1–0v Lask Linz8 Sept
  • W3–1v Rayo Vallecano16 Apr
  • L0–3at Rayo Vallecano9 Apr
  • L0–2v Celje19 Mar
  • W4–0at Celje12 Mar
  • W3–2v Universitatea Craiova18 Dec

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%37.9%−6.7 pts
Draw24.4%27.8%+3.4 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%34.3%+3.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.68 and 1.36). Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 · AEK Athens FC 1.36 · total 3.04 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Shakhtar Donetsk–AEK Athens FC)

  1. 1–111.2%
  2. 2–19.2%
  3. 1–07.7%
  4. 1–27.4%
  5. 2–06.7%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals
1.68
Scoring vs average
×0.88
Conceding vs average
×1.03

AEK Athens FC

Expected goals
1.36
Scoring vs average
×1.03
Conceding vs average
×0.88
  • Shakhtar Donetsk (home): expected to score ×0.88 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.03 the average.
  • AEK Athens FC (away): expected to score ×1.03 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.88 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Shakhtar Donetsk
29 matches (28 with xG)
AEK Athens FC
17 matches (17 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home44.7%under-stated by 6.8 pts on 101 matches (this competition); conservative 39.7%
1x2:draw24.4%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 17.1%
1x2:away30.9%under-stated by 1.5 pts on 110 matches (this competition); conservative 26.5%
double_chance:1x69.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x255.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes60.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no39.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.594.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.55.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.580.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.519.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.558.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.541.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.536.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.563.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.519.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.580.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.58.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.591.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.581.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.518.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.550.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.550.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.523.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.576.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.59.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.591.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.574.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.525.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.539.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.560.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.515.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.584.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.595.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.510.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.590.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.523.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.576.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.544.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.555.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.569.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.530.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.586.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.513.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.595.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.54.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home59.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away40.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.33 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6588070139507735166 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.17 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%45.0% ± 0.2+0.33 pts
Draw24.4%23.6% ± 0.1−0.77 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%31.4% ± 0.1+0.44 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.33 pts (btts:no); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Shakhtar Donetsk
25.8% ± 0.1 (exact 25.6%)
AEK Athens FC
18.9% ± 0.1 (exact 18.7%)

Goal difference (Shakhtar Donetsk minus AEK Athens FC)

  1. <-50.1% ± 0.0
  2. -50.3% ± 0.0
  3. -41.0% ± 0.0
  4. -33.5% ± 0.1
  5. -29.0% ± 0.1
  6. -117.5% ± 0.1
  7. 023.6% ± 0.1
  8. 121.5% ± 0.1
  9. 213.5% ± 0.1
  10. 36.5% ± 0.1
  11. 42.5% ± 0.0
  12. 50.8% ± 0.0
  13. >50.3% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC10.8% ± 0.111.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 AEK Athens FC9.2% ± 0.19.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 AEK Athens FC8.0% ± 0.17.7%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 AEK Athens FC7.4% ± 0.17.4%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 AEK Athens FC6.8% ± 0.16.7%

Expected goals (simulated)

Shakhtar Donetsk
mean 1.68 · variance 1.69 · ± 0.004
AEK Athens FC
mean 1.36 · variance 1.37 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.6 pts (to 23.8%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk and +0.00 for AEK Athens FC.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%45.0%+0.3 pts
Draw24.4%23.8%−0.6 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%31.2%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.361.68 – 1.36+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 38 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 6 · newest input 751 h before as-of.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Riznyk)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

AEK Athens FC

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Strakosha)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • fatigue: 6 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move shakhtar donetsk win by +0.6 pts (to 45.3%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Shakhtar Donetsk and −0.03 for AEK Athens FC.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%45.3%+0.6 pts
Draw24.4%23.9%−0.4 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%30.8%−0.2 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.361.67 – 1.33−0.01 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 38 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 6 · newest input 751 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Shakhtar Donetsk rate ×0.99 band 0.78–1.26

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

AEK Athens FC rate ×0.98 band 0.77–1.23

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days; fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 6 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move shakhtar donetsk win by +0.6 pts (to 45.3%). Expected goals move −0.01 for Shakhtar Donetsk and −0.03 for AEK Athens FC.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%45.3%+0.6 pts
Draw24.4%23.9%−0.4 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%30.8%−0.2 pts
Expected goals1.68 – 1.361.67 – 1.33−0.01 / −0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 38 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 57 · UNKNOWN 6 · newest input 751 h before as-of.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice D. Riznyk)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

AEK Athens FC

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Strakosha)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • away: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Shakhtar Donetsk rate ×0.99 band 0.78–1.26

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

AEK Athens FC rate ×0.98 band 0.77–1.23

  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Unknown (contribution 0, never read as rested): fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days; fewer than four days since the previous match; matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league); extra-time matches in the last 14 days.

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • fatigue: 6 feature values missing (contribution 0)
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Shakhtar Donetsk win44.7%39.1%−5.6 pts
Draw24.4%26.9%+2.5 pts
AEK Athens FC win30.9%34.0%+3.1 pts
Expected goals—1.31 – 1.20−0.37 / −0.16

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 204 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)Alisson 36% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Shakhtar Donetsk

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 100% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
Alisson M36.2% ± 0.27.6% ± 0.10.45 ± 0.00289%
Kaua Elias F21.4% ± 0.12.6% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00292%
O. Ocheretko M17.4% ± 0.11.6% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00193%
Isaque Silva M13.0% ± 0.10.9% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00127%
Marlon Gomes M11.9% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.13 ± 0.00159%
Pedrinho M10.7% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.11 ± 0.00163%
Newerton M9.7% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00142%
Eguinaldo M9.1% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00137%

AEK Athens FC

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 97% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
R. Marin M31.2% ± 0.15.4% ± 0.10.37 ± 0.00291%
L. Jovic F22.3% ± 0.12.8% ± 0.10.25 ± 0.00289%
A. Koita F21.0% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.002100%
B. Varga F19.7% ± 0.12.1% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00167%
H. Moukoudi D6.9% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00195%
Zini F5.6% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00126%
D. Kutesa M3.6% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00119%
M. Gacinovic M3.2% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00116%

Run 962 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 457, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Shakhtar Donetsk)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (AEK Athens FC)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationShakhtar Donetsk 1 absent regular · AEK Athens FC 2 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Shakhtar Donetsk

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Inter +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Wed 21 OctUCLA Inter+7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (10 starters, 22 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Pedrinho (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Shakhtar Donetsk: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
M. Matvienko · regularD09090' Ukraine, 12 d before
Kauã Elias · regularF00—
G. MendozaM00—
Alisson Santana · regularM00—
D. Riznyk · regularG09090' Ukraine, 12 d before; 0' Ukraine, 9 d before
Marlon GomesM00—
O. Ocheretko · regularM016090' Ukraine, 12 d before; 70' Ukraine, 9 d before
Pedrinho · regularD00—
Vinícius Tobias · regularD00—
V. Bondar · regularD06363' Ukraine, 12 d before; 0' Ukraine, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 523 minutes — M. Matvienko (90' Ukraine, 12 d before); D. Riznyk (90' Ukraine, 12 d before; 0' Ukraine, 9 d before); O. Ocheretko (90' Ukraine, 12 d before; 70' Ukraine, 9 d before); E. Nazaryna (34' Ukraine, 12 d before; 86' Ukraine, 9 d before); V. Bondar (63' Ukraine, 12 d before; 0' Ukraine, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

AEK Athens FC

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Manchester City +6 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLA Manchester City+6 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Tue 8 Sept (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: T. Strakosha (G) — reason unknown; O. Pineda (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

AEK Athens FC: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
S. Pilio · regularD016777' Albania, 11.2 d before; 90' Albania, 8 d before
B. VargaF00—
A. BrignoliG00—
R. Marin · regularM014778' Romania, 12 d before; 69' Romania, 9 d before
H. Moukoudi · regularD00—
L. Rota · regularD00—
F. Relvas · regularD00—
A. Koita · regularM00—
L. Jovic · regularF011490' Serbia, 13 d before; 24' Serbia, 10 d before
M. VitalisM012333' Hungary, 12 d before; 90' Hungary, 9 d before
L. MajerM00—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 736 minutes — S. Pilio (77' Albania, 11.2 d before; 90' Albania, 8 d before); K. Arriaga (22' Honduras, 11.8 d before; 90' Honduras, 8.7 d before); R. Marin (78' Romania, 12 d before; 69' Romania, 9 d before); O. Zubkov (27' Ukraine, 12 d before); L. Jovic (90' Serbia, 13 d before; 24' Serbia, 10 d before); M. Vitalis (33' Hungary, 12 d before; 90' Hungary, 9 d before); K. Kairinen (46' Finland, 11.2 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Shakhtar Donetsk45%36%37%
Draw24%27%28%
AEK Athens FC31%37%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 21 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Shakhtar Donetsk a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (45% vs 36%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 7 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • Shakhtar Donetsk: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.2 and conceded 2.2 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D1–1at PSV Eindhoven10 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–3at Borussia Dortmund29 Jan · in model evidence
  • W2–0v Stade Brestois 2922 Jan · in model evidence
  • L1–5v Bayern München10 Dec · in model evidence
  • L2–3at PSV Eindhoven27 Nov · in model evidence
  • W2–1v BSC Young Boys6 Nov · in model evidence

AEK Athens FC

  • AEK Athens FC: 7 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.4 and conceded 0.9 a game; scored in 71%, kept a clean sheet in 43%.
  • Both teams scored in 43%; over 1.5 goals in 57%, over 2.5 in 57%.
  • W1–0v Lask Linz8 Sept · in model evidence
  • W4–0v Levski Sofia26 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D0–0at Levski Sofia18 Aug · not in model evidence
  • L1–2v Antwerp30 Aug · not in model evidence
  • L0–1at Antwerp22 Aug · not in model evidence
  • D2–2v Dinamo Zagreb19 Aug · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more9%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.536%
Both teams score61%

Shakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals1.68
Scores at least once81%
Scores 2 or more50%
Clean sheet26%

AEK Athens FC

Expected goals1.36
Scores at least once74%
Scores 2 or more39%
Clean sheet19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 3 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season18th v 16th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Shakhtar Donetsk

18th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

AEK Athens FC

16th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 0

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 1, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 3 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Shakhtar Donetsk to win44.7%45.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 37¢
Draw24.4%23.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
AEK Athens FC to win30.9%31.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 37¢
Double chance
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw limited evidence69.1%68.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 65¢
AEK Athens FC or draw limited evidence55.3%55.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 64¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.6%76.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Draw no bet
Shakhtar Donetsk to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence59.1%58.9% ± 0.2no
AEK Athens FC to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence40.9%41.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence94.9%95.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 95¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.1%4.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 8¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence80.9%80.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 77¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence19.1%19.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 24¢
Over 2.5 goals in total58.5%58.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 53¢
Under 2.5 goals in total41.5%41.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 50¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence36.1%36.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 30¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence63.9%64.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 72¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence19.1%19.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence80.9%80.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence8.8%8.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.2%91.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence60.8%60.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 57¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence39.2%39.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 44¢
Team goals
Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.5 goals limited evidence81.3%81.1% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk under 0.5 goals limited evidence18.7%18.9% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.5 goals limited evidence50.0%49.9% ± 0.2no
Shakhtar Donetsk under 1.5 goals limited evidence50.0%50.1% ± 0.2no
Shakhtar Donetsk over 2.5 goals limited evidence23.7%23.7% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk under 2.5 goals limited evidence76.3%76.3% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk over 3.5 goals limited evidence9.0%9.0% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk under 3.5 goals limited evidence91.0%91.0% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC over 0.5 goals limited evidence74.4%74.2% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC under 0.5 goals limited evidence25.6%25.8% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC over 1.5 goals limited evidence39.5%39.5% ± 0.2no
AEK Athens FC under 1.5 goals limited evidence60.5%60.5% ± 0.2no
AEK Athens FC over 2.5 goals limited evidence15.7%15.8% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC under 2.5 goals limited evidence84.3%84.2% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.0%4.9% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC under 3.5 goals limited evidence95.0%95.1% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by 3 or more limited evidence10.0%10.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by 2 or more limited evidence23.5%23.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by 1 or more limited evidence44.7%45.0% ± 0.2no
Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence69.1%68.6% ± 0.1no
Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence86.2%86.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence95.1%95.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
AEK Athens FC to win by 3 or more limited evidence4.9%4.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢
AEK Athens FC to win by 2 or more limited evidence13.8%13.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
AEK Athens FC to win by 1 or more limited evidence30.9%31.4% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence55.3%55.0% ± 0.2no
AEK Athens FC not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence76.5%76.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
AEK Athens FC not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence90.0%90.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 96¢
Clean sheet
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet grid25.6%25.8% ± 0.1no
AEK Athens FC clean sheet grid18.7%18.9% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—23.6% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by exactly 1—21.5% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by exactly 2—13.5% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by exactly 3—6.5% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by exactly 4—2.5% ± 0.0not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by exactly 5—0.8% ± 0.0not listed
AEK Athens FC by exactly 1—17.5% ± 0.1not listed
AEK Athens FC by exactly 2—9.0% ± 0.1not listed
AEK Athens FC by exactly 3—3.5% ± 0.1not listed
AEK Athens FC by exactly 4—1.0% ± 0.0not listed
AEK Athens FC by exactly 5—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk by 6 or more—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
AEK Athens FC by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC—10.8% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 AEK Athens FC—9.2% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 AEK Athens FC—8.0% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 AEK Athens FC—7.4% ± 0.1not listed
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 AEK Athens FC—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes)
31%
36%
YES on AEK Athens FC to WinAEK Athens FC wins in 90 minutes
31%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,963 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Shakhtar Donetsk to win (90 minutes)
45%
37%
YES on Shakhtar Donetsk to WinShakhtar Donetsk wins in 90 minutes
45%37¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 16,960 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
28%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%28¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 21,725 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawShakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens FC wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%73¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 166 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on AEK Athens FC to WinShakhtar Donetsk wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
69%65¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,166 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Shakhtar Donetsk to WinAEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
55%64¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,632 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
94%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%95¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,337 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%8¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,839 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
77%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
81%77¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,846 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
19%24¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
59%
52%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
59%53¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,272 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
41%50¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,302 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
36%
29%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
36%30¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
64%72¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,849 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
19%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,264 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
81%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 314 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,855 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,688 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
61%
56%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
61%57¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
39%44¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 257 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Winning margin
AEK Athens FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
14%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on AEK Athens FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAEK Athens FC wins by 2 goals or more
14%18¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,447 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on AEK Athens FC to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsShakhtar Donetsk wins or the match is drawn, or AEK Athens FC wins by 1 goal · AEK Athens FC not by 2+ goals
86%85¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,031 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
AEK Athens FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
5%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on AEK Athens FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAEK Athens FC wins by 3 goals or more
5%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,382 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on AEK Athens FC to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsShakhtar Donetsk wins or the match is drawn, or AEK Athens FC wins by 2 goals or fewer · AEK Athens FC not by 3+ goals
95%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,280 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
16%
Limited evidence
YES on Shakhtar Donetsk to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsShakhtar Donetsk wins by 2 goals or more
24%17¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,252 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Shakhtar Donetsk to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn, or Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 1 goal · Shakhtar Donetsk not by 2+ goals
76%85¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,297 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
10%
6%
Limited evidence
YES on Shakhtar Donetsk to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsShakhtar Donetsk wins by 3 goals or more
10%7¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,382 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
NO on Shakhtar Donetsk to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAEK Athens FC wins or the match is drawn, or Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2 goals or fewer · Shakhtar Donetsk not by 3+ goals
90%96¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,280 contracts at the ask · quote 21 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 44.7% · draw 24.4% · away 30.9%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk eligible matches
29 (28 with xG)
AEK Athens FC eligible matches
17 (17 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 8% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Shakhtar DonetskOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 SeptPSV Eindhovenaway1–1—D
7 MayCrystal Palaceaway1–21.04–1.37L
30 AprCrystal Palacehome1–31.06–2.31L
16 AprAZ Alkmaaraway2–21.51–0.85D
9 AprAZ Alkmaarhome3–00.78–0.49W
19 MarLech Poznanhome1–20.43–2.22L
AEK Athens FCOpponentVenueScorexGResult
8 SeptLask Linzhome1–01.71–0.72W
16 AprRayo Vallecanohome3–12.78–1.80W
9 AprRayo Vallecanoaway0–31.11–2.31L
19 MarCeljehome0–20.92–1.21L
12 MarCeljeaway4–02.81–0.28W
18 DecUniversitatea Craiovahome3–23.41–1.34W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14SHAAEK-BTTS
60.8%56.5%—0.56 / 0.570.44363 / 257Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
AEK Athens FC to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-AEK
30.9%36.0%−5.1 pts0.35 / 0.370.6524,963 / 11,166Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Shakhtar Donetsk to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-SHA
44.7%36.5%+8.2 pts0.36 / 0.370.6416,960 / 3,632Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14SHAAEK-TIE
24.4%27.5%−3.1 pts0.27 / 0.280.7321,725 / 166Comparable
seen 21 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
AEK Athens FC to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14SHAAEK-AEK2
13.8%16.5%—0.15 / 0.180.852,447 / 3,031Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
AEK Athens FC to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14SHAAEK-AEK3
4.9%5.5%—0.04 / 0.070.963,382 / 1,280Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14SHAAEK-SHA2
23.5%16.0%—0.15 / 0.170.851,252 / 1,297Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Shakhtar Donetsk to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14SHAAEK-SHA3
10.0%5.5%—0.04 / 0.070.963,382 / 6,280Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-1
94.9%93.5%—0.92 / 0.950.083,337 / 2,839Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-2
80.9%76.5%—0.76 / 0.770.246,846 / 10Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-3
58.5%51.5%—0.50 / 0.530.5011,272 / 1,302Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-4
36.1%29.0%—0.28 / 0.300.720 / 2,849Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-5
19.1%14.0%—0.13 / 0.150.871,264 / 314Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14SHAAEK-6
8.8%5.5%—0.04 / 0.070.962,855 / 6,688Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 21 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:55.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home36.1%35.0% – 36.8%38.2%2.621044.7%+8.6 pts
1x2:draw27.5%26.9% – 28.4%28.6%3.501024.4%−3.1 pts
1x2:away36.5%36.0% – 37.5%38.8%2.581030.9%−5.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:08 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.551.8%50.6% – 52.7%54.2%1.848——
total_goals:under:2.548.2%47.3% – 49.4%50.4%1.998——

8 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:08 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (18)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.56 · draw 3.48 · home 2.7411/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.55 · draw 3.50 · home 2.6011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.69 · draw 3.55 · home 2.6311/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOMatch winneraway 2.45 · draw 3.12 · home 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
William HillMatch winneraway 2.50 · draw 3.30 · home 2.6211/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Match winneraway 2.60 · draw 3.50 · home 2.6011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.65 · draw 3.50 · home 2.6511/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.63 · draw 3.58 · home 2.8211/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.62 · draw 3.50 · home 2.6211/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.55 · draw 3.40 · home 2.6011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.85 · under 2.5 1.9711/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.75 · under 2.5 1.9511/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.92 · under 2.5 1.9711/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.84 · under 2.5 2.0211/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.80 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.91 · under 2.5 2.0311/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.85 · under 2.5 2.0011/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.78 · under 2.5 1.8911/10/2026, 09:31:0810/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:55.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:00 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Shakhtar Donetskok11/10/2026, 01:39:36 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · AEK Athens FCok11/10/2026, 01:39:38 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home44.7%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away30.9%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x69.1%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x255.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes60.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no39.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.594.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.580.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.519.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.558.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.541.5%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.536.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.563.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.519.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.9%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.58.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.581.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.518.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.550.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.550.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.523.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.576.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.574.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.525.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.539.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.560.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.515.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.584.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.510.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.590.0%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.523.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.576.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.544.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.555.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.569.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.530.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.586.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.513.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.595.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.54.9%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home59.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away40.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 457 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:55