Got%OnIt
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UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

AS RomavReal Madrid

AS Roma
37%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid
39%

Got%OnIt gives Real Madrid a 39% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for AS Roma and 1.6 for Real Madrid.
  • AS Roma won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a game.
  • Real Madrid won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • AS Roma are 17th of 36 after 1 games; Real Madrid are 14th.
  • AS Roma have won 0 and lost 0; Real Madrid have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

AS Roma

  • D0–0at Como11 Oct
  • D2–2v Inter19 Sept
  • W2–0at Torino14 Sept
  • D1–1at Fenerbahçe10 Sept
  • W2–1v Atalanta5 Sept
  • W4–0at Lecce31 Aug

Real Madrid

  • W1–0v Villarreal10 Oct
  • L1–2at Atletico Madrid20 Sept
  • W3–2at Elche15 Sept
  • W4–1v Rayo Vallecano12 Sept
  • W2–1v Inter8 Sept
  • L0–1at Real Betis4 Sept

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
AS Roma win36.8%30.2%−6.6 pts
Draw24.4%22.6%−1.9 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%47.2%+8.4 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.52 and 1.57). AS Roma 1.52 · Real Madrid 1.57 · total 3.09 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (AS Roma–Real Madrid)

  1. 1–111.1%
  2. 1–28.5%
  3. 2–18.3%
  4. 0–16.8%
  5. 1–06.6%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

AS Roma

Expected goals
1.52
Scoring vs average
×0.80
Conceding vs average
×1.19

Real Madrid

Expected goals
1.57
Scoring vs average
×1.19
Conceding vs average
×0.80
  • AS Roma (home): expected to score ×0.80 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.19 the average.
  • Real Madrid (away): expected to score ×1.19 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.80 the average.
  • Recent 261 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.90 home and 1.32 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.44).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

AS Roma
157 matches (152 with xG)
Real Madrid
163 matches (160 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · regulation_time_90_minutes · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (7)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
Calibration per market (3 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home36.8%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 91 matches (this competition); conservative 31.7%
1x2:draw24.4%over-stated by 5.0 pts on 357 matches (this competition); conservative 17.2%
1x2:away38.8%under-stated by 1.5 pts on 110 matches (this competition); conservative 34.1%
double_chance:1x61.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x263.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes62.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no37.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:0.54.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:1.518.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.559.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:2.540.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.537.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:3.562.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.520.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:4.580.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:under:5.590.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.578.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:0.521.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.545.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:1.555.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.519.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:2.580.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:under:3.593.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.579.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:0.520.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.546.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:1.553.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.520.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:2.579.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.57.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:under:3.592.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.56.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+2.593.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-1.517.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+1.582.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-0.536.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:+0.563.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+0.561.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-0.538.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+1.580.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-1.519.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:+2.592.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.57.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home48.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away51.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.37 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 8788613789126083629 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.19 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
AS Roma win36.8%36.8% ± 0.2−0.04 pts
Draw24.4%24.0% ± 0.1−0.48 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%39.3% ± 0.2+0.52 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.37 pts (team_total:away:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

AS Roma
20.6% ± 0.1 (exact 20.8%)
Real Madrid
21.8% ± 0.1 (exact 21.8%)

Goal difference (AS Roma minus Real Madrid)

  1. <-50.2% ± 0.0
  2. -50.5% ± 0.0
  3. -41.8% ± 0.0
  4. -35.2% ± 0.1
  5. -211.8% ± 0.1
  6. -119.7% ± 0.1
  7. 024.0% ± 0.1
  8. 119.0% ± 0.1
  9. 210.9% ± 0.1
  10. 34.5% ± 0.1
  11. 41.7% ± 0.0
  12. 50.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
AS Roma 1–1 Real Madrid10.9% ± 0.111.1%
AS Roma 1–2 Real Madrid8.5% ± 0.18.5%
AS Roma 2–1 Real Madrid8.2% ± 0.18.3%
AS Roma 0–1 Real Madrid7.1% ± 0.16.8%
AS Roma 1–0 Real Madrid6.8% ± 0.16.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

AS Roma
mean 1.52 · variance 1.52 · ± 0.004
Real Madrid
mean 1.58 · variance 1.57 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move real madrid win by +0.9 pts (to 39.7%). Expected goals move −0.02 for AS Roma and +0.01 for Real Madrid.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win36.8%36.4%−0.4 pts
Draw24.4%23.9%−0.5 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%39.7%+0.9 pts
Expected goals1.52 – 1.571.50 – 1.58−0.02 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 140 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

AS Roma

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 2.8% of goals share out

  • M. Svilar G Missing Fixture (Toe Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • B. Cristante M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 2.8% · effect −2.8% REPORTED
  • K. Koulierakis D Missing Fixture (Knock) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Bah M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: flagged — first choice reported outESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Real Madrid

Attack ×0.98 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.8% of goals share out

  • Eder Militao D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mendy D Missing Fixture (Hip Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Rodrygo F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • R. Asencio D Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 1.6% · effect −1.6% REPORTED

Returning: D. HuijsenESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Courtois)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move real madrid win by +3.2 pts (to 41.9%). Expected goals move −0.08 for AS Roma and +0.05 for Real Madrid.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win36.8%34.2%−2.6 pts
Draw24.4%23.9%−0.5 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%41.9%+3.2 pts
Expected goals1.52 – 1.571.44 – 1.62−0.08 / +0.05

Data labels: CONFIRMED 140 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

AS Roma rate ×0.95 band 0.68–1.42

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08585858585858597 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.101010101010101 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.008) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Real Madrid rate ×1.03 band 0.72–1.51

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.101010101010101 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08585858585858597 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move real madrid win by +3.8 pts (to 42.5%). Expected goals move −0.10 for AS Roma and +0.06 for Real Madrid.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
AS Roma win36.8%33.5%−3.3 pts
Draw24.4%23.9%−0.5 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%42.5%+3.8 pts
Expected goals1.52 – 1.571.42 – 1.63−0.10 / +0.06

Data labels: CONFIRMED 140 · REPORTED 8 · ESTIMATED 55 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

AS Roma

Attack ×0.99 band 0.98–0.99 ESTIMATED · opponent attack ×1.03 band 1.01–1.04 · 2.8% of goals share out

  • M. Svilar G Missing Fixture (Toe Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 · defensive starter REPORTED
  • B. Cristante M Missing Fixture (Injury) · share 2.8% · effect −2.8% REPORTED
  • K. Koulierakis D Missing Fixture (Knock) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • M. Bah M Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: flagged — first choice reported outESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Real Madrid

Attack ×0.98 band 0.96–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.8% of goals share out

  • Eder Militao D Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.9% · effect −0.9% REPORTED
  • F. Mendy D Missing Fixture (Hip Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • Rodrygo F Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 2.3% · effect −2.3% REPORTED
  • R. Asencio D Missing Fixture (Broken Leg) · share 1.6% · effect −1.6% REPORTED

Returning: D. HuijsenESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice T. Courtois)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

AS Roma rate ×0.95 band 0.68–1.42

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08585858585858597 · contribution -0.001 (-0.007 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.101010101010101 · contribution 0.001 (-0.007 to 0.008) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Real Madrid rate ×1.03 band 0.72–1.51

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.101010101010101 · contribution -0.002 (-0.009 to 0.003) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.004 (-0.049 to 0.053) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.08585858585858597 · contribution 0.001 (-0.006 to 0.007) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.36363636363636365 · contribution -0.012 (-0.063 to 0.042) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • home: first-choice goalkeeper reported out or absent from the confirmed XI
  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
AS Roma win36.8%32.5%−4.3 pts
Draw24.4%23.0%−1.4 pts
Real Madrid win38.8%44.5%+5.8 pts
Expected goals—1.48 – 1.76−0.05 / +0.19

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 194 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 07/10/2026, 19:52:04.

Player scoring (simulation)K. Mbappe 44% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

AS Roma

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 81% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
D. Malen F37.8% ± 0.28.3% ± 0.10.47 ± 0.002100%
M. Hermoso D9.9% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.001100%
G. Mancini D9.0% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.001100%
M. Soule F7.8% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00159%
M. Kone M7.3% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00177%
Wesley Franca M6.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00181%
E. Ndicka D5.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00156%
L. Pellegrini M5.8% ± 0.10.2% ± 0.00.06 ± 0.00122%

Real Madrid

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 86% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
K. Mbappe F44.3% ± 0.211.8% ± 0.10.59 ± 0.002100%
Vinicius Junior F21.6% ± 0.12.5% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00275%
F. Valverde D14.9% ± 0.11.2% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.001100%
J. Bellingham M14.5% ± 0.11.0% ± 0.00.16 ± 0.00186%
A. Güler M4.9% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00171%
A. Rudiger D2.7% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00140%
Álvaro Fernández D2.3% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00045%
D. Huijsen D2.0% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.00063%

Run 957 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 452, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (AS Roma)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Real Madrid)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished UEFA Champions League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationAS Roma 3.4 d rest (short) · Real Madrid 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:11 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

AS Roma

3.4 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Serie A H Genoa +3 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptSAH InterD 2–2counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctSAA ComoD 0–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 17 OctSAH Genoa+3 d
  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Slovan Bratislava+6 d
  • Sat 24 OctSAA Napoli+9.9 d
  • Tue 27 OctSAH Cagliari+13 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Serie A, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 21 in the squad); 54 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: B. Cristante (M) — reason unknown; M. Svilar (G) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.3 CONFIRMED

AS Roma: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
E. Ndicka · regularD9090—
Wesley · regularM9090—
P. GolliniG9090—
N. MolinaM8282—
M. de RoonM9090—
M. Koné · regularM891500' France, 12 d before; 61' France, 9 d before
Hermoso · regularD6060—
G. Mancini · regularD901800' Italy, 12 d before; 90' Italy, 9 d before
P. Dybala · regularM8989—
L. PellegriniM4545—
D. Malen · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 151 minutes — M. Koné (0' France, 12 d before; 61' France, 9 d before); G. Mancini (0' Italy, 12 d before; 90' Italy, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Real Madrid

4 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Sevilla +4 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Tue 15 SeptLLA ElcheW 3–2counted as workload
  • Sun 20 SeptLLA Atletico MadridL 1–2counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctLLH VillarrealW 1–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 18 OctLLH Sevilla+4 d
  • Wed 21 OctUCLH RB Leipzig+7 d
  • Sun 25 OctLLA Barcelona+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 62 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Huijsen (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 80.9 CONFIRMED

Real Madrid: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Álvaro FernándezD4545—
A. RüdigerD9090—
I. Konaté · regularD9090—
T. Alexander-ArnoldD521420' England, 11.1 d before; 90' England, 8 d before
T. Courtois · regularG9090—
F. Valverde · regularM9090—
J. Bellingham · regularM9025390' England, 11.1 d before; 73' England, 8 d before
Y. DiomandeM8686—
A. TchouaméniM9090—
A. GülerM7716790' Türkiye, 12 d before
Kylian Mbappé · regularF9090—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 719 minutes — Bernardo Silva (0' Portugal, 13 d before; 4' Portugal, 10 d before); T. Alexander-Arnold (0' England, 11.1 d before; 90' England, 8 d before); J. Bellingham (90' England, 11.1 d before; 73' England, 8 d before); Marc Cucurella (0' Spain, 11 d before; 90' Spain, 8 d before); D. Dumfries (90' Netherlands, 13 d before; 90' Netherlands, 10 d before); A. Güler (90' Türkiye, 12 d before); E. Camavinga (14' France, 12 d before; 88' France, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 4 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

AS Roma

  • B. Cristante · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
  • K. Koulierakis · injury / absence: Knock · Missing Fixture
  • M. Bah · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
  • M. Svilar · injury / absence: Toe Injury · Missing Fixture

Real Madrid

  • Eder Militao · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture
  • F. Mendy · injury / absence: Hip Injury · Missing Fixture
  • R. Asencio · injury / absence: Broken Leg · Missing Fixture
  • Rodrygo · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
AS Roma37%26%26%
Draw24%24%24%
Real Madrid39%51%52%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 20 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Real Madrid a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (39% vs 52%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence1 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

AS Roma

  • AS Roma: 1 finished match (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.0 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 0%.
  • D1–1at Fenerbahçe10 Sept · in model evidence

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 2.3 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 90%.
  • W2–1v Inter8 Sept · in model evidence
  • L3–4at Bayern München15 Apr · in model evidence
  • L1–2v Bayern München7 Apr · in model evidence
  • W2–1at Manchester City17 Mar · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Manchester City11 Mar · in model evidence
  • W2–1v Benfica25 Feb · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal13%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals11%
6 or more9%
Over 1.582%
Over 2.560%
Over 3.537%
Both teams score62%

AS Roma

Expected goals1.52
Scores at least once78%
Scores 2 or more45%
Clean sheet21%

Real Madrid

Expected goals1.57
Scores at least once79%
Scores 2 or more46%
Clean sheet22%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability8 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

8 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 3 h ago.

AS Roma

  • B. CristanteOutInjury
  • K. KoulierakisOutKnock
  • M. BahOutKnee Injury
  • M. SvilarOutToe Injury

Real Madrid

  • Eder MilitaoOutHamstring Injury
  • F. MendyOutHip Injury
  • R. AsencioOutBroken Leg
  • RodrygoOutKnee Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season17th v 14th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

AS Roma

17th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Real Madrid

14th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 2, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
AS Roma to win36.8%36.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 26¢
Draw24.4%24.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Real Madrid to win38.8%39.3% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 52¢
Double chance
AS Roma or draw limited evidence61.2%60.7% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 49¢
Real Madrid or draw limited evidence63.2%63.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 75¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.6%76.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 77¢
Draw no bet
AS Roma to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence48.7%48.4% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence51.3%51.6% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.2%95.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.8%4.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 5¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.7%81.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 88¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.3%18.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢
Over 2.5 goals in total59.7%59.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 68¢
Under 2.5 goals in total40.3%40.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 33¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence37.3%37.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence62.7%62.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 54¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence20.0%20.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 28¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence80.0%80.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.3%9.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence90.7%90.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence62.2%62.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 69¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence37.8%38.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 32¢
Team goals
AS Roma over 0.5 goals limited evidence78.2%78.2% ± 0.1no
AS Roma under 0.5 goals limited evidence21.8%21.8% ± 0.1no
AS Roma over 1.5 goals limited evidence45.0%44.8% ± 0.2no
AS Roma under 1.5 goals limited evidence55.0%55.2% ± 0.2no
AS Roma over 2.5 goals limited evidence19.7%19.5% ± 0.1no
AS Roma under 2.5 goals limited evidence80.3%80.5% ± 0.1no
AS Roma over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.9%6.9% ± 0.1no
AS Roma under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.1%93.1% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid over 0.5 goals limited evidence79.2%79.4% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 0.5 goals limited evidence20.8%20.6% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid over 1.5 goals limited evidence46.5%46.9% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid under 1.5 goals limited evidence53.5%53.1% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid over 2.5 goals limited evidence20.9%21.0% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 2.5 goals limited evidence79.1%79.0% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid over 3.5 goals limited evidence7.5%7.5% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid under 3.5 goals limited evidence92.5%92.5% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
AS Roma to win by 3 or more limited evidence6.9%6.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 6¢
AS Roma to win by 2 or more limited evidence17.9%17.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
AS Roma to win by 1 or more limited evidence36.8%36.8% ± 0.2no
AS Roma not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence61.2%60.7% ± 0.2no
AS Roma not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence80.7%80.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 71¢
AS Roma not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence92.3%92.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Real Madrid to win by 3 or more limited evidence7.7%7.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢
Real Madrid to win by 2 or more limited evidence19.3%19.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 30¢
Real Madrid to win by 1 or more limited evidence38.8%39.3% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence63.2%63.2% ± 0.2no
Real Madrid not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence82.1%82.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Real Madrid not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.1%93.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 97¢
Clean sheet
AS Roma clean sheet grid20.8%20.6% ± 0.1no
Real Madrid clean sheet grid21.8%21.8% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.0% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 1—19.0% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 2—10.9% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 3—4.5% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma by exactly 4—1.7% ± 0.0not listed
AS Roma by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
Real Madrid by exactly 1—19.7% ± 0.1not listed
Real Madrid by exactly 2—11.8% ± 0.1not listed
Real Madrid by exactly 3—5.2% ± 0.1not listed
Real Madrid by exactly 4—1.8% ± 0.0not listed
Real Madrid by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
AS Roma by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Real Madrid by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
AS Roma 1–1 Real Madrid—10.9% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 1–2 Real Madrid—8.5% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 2–1 Real Madrid—8.2% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 0–1 Real Madrid—7.1% ± 0.1not listed
AS Roma 1–0 Real Madrid—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

AS Roma v Real Madrid: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Real Madrid to win (90 minutes)
39%
52%
YES on Real Madrid to WinReal Madrid wins in 90 minutes
39%52¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 144,369 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

AS Roma to win (90 minutes)
37%
26%
YES on AS Roma to WinAS Roma wins in 90 minutes
37%26¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 24,914 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
24%
24%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
24%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 59,126 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawAS Roma or Real Madrid wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
76%77¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,043 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Real Madrid to WinAS Roma wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
61%49¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 18,283 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on AS Roma to WinReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
63%75¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 337 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
97%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%98¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 591 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%5¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,502 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
82%
87%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
82%88¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 672 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
18%14¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 633 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
60%
68%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
60%68¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
40%33¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 643 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
47%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
37%48¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,977 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
63%54¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,435 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
28%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
20%28¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 791 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
80%73¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 333 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 590 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,217 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
62%
69%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
62%69¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 7,926 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
38%32¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 20 min old
Winning margin
Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
30%
Limited evidence
YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 2 goals or more
19%30¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 790 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 1 goal · Real Madrid not by 2+ goals
81%71¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,365 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 3 goals or more
8%15¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 790 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAS Roma wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer · Real Madrid not by 3+ goals
92%87¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,378 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
18%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on AS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsAS Roma wins by 2 goals or more
18%12¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 790 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on AS Roma to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 1 goal · AS Roma not by 2+ goals
82%90¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,326 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
7%
5%
Limited evidence
YES on AS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsAS Roma wins by 3 goals or more
7%6¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,796 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
NO on AS Roma to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or AS Roma wins by 2 goals or fewer · AS Roma not by 3+ goals
93%97¢
Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,614 contracts at the ask · quote 20 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 36.8% · draw 24.4% · away 38.8%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.57
AS Roma eligible matches
157 (152 with xG)
Real Madrid eligible matches
163 (160 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including UEFA Champions League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • cross-league target: the two clubs come from different league groups; their relative strength depends on the fitted league-strength terms (Phase 8A found the frozen engine biased here)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 13% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's home probability is 11% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
  • UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

AS RomaOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctComoaway0–01.12–1.49D
19 SeptInterhome2–2—D
14 SeptTorinoaway2–01.85–0.86W
10 SeptFenerbahçeaway1–1—D
5 SeptAtalantahome2–1—W
31 AugLecceaway4–03.27–0.80W
Real MadridOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctVillarrealhome1–00.99–0.64W
20 SeptAtletico Madridaway1–20.30–2.35L
15 SeptElcheaway3–23.61–0.78W
12 SeptRayo Vallecanohome4–12.62–1.21W
8 SeptInterhome2–1—W
4 SeptReal Betisaway0–13.46–0.93L

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14ROMRMA-BTTS
62.2%68.5%—0.68 / 0.690.327,926 / 0Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Real Madrid to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-RMA
38.8%51.5%−12.7 pts0.51 / 0.520.49144,369 / 18,283Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-ROM
36.8%25.5%+11.3 pts0.25 / 0.260.7524,914 / 337Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXUCLGAME-26OCT14ROMRMA-TIE
24.4%23.5%+0.9 pts0.23 / 0.240.7759,126 / 2,043Comparable
seen 20 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14ROMRMA-RMA2
19.3%29.5%—0.29 / 0.300.71790 / 1,365Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14ROMRMA-RMA3
7.7%14.0%—0.13 / 0.150.87790 / 1,378Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14ROMRMA-ROM2
17.9%11.0%—0.10 / 0.120.90790 / 1,326Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
AS Roma to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14ROMRMA-ROM3
6.9%4.5%—0.03 / 0.060.972,796 / 4,614Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-1
95.2%96.5%—0.95 / 0.980.05591 / 2,502Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-2
81.7%87.0%—0.86 / 0.880.14672 / 633Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-3
59.7%67.5%—0.67 / 0.680.330 / 643Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-4
37.3%47.0%—0.46 / 0.480.541,977 / 1,435Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-5
20.0%27.5%—0.27 / 0.280.73791 / 333Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14ROMRMA-6
9.3%14.0%—0.13 / 0.150.87590 / 3,217Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only
seen 20 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:11:21.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home25.5%25.1% – 27.7%26.8%3.731036.8%+11.3 pts
1x2:draw23.9%22.8% – 24.5%25.0%4.001024.4%+0.5 pts
1x2:away50.7%48.1% – 51.2%53.6%1.861038.8%−12.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:58 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.566.8%65.9% – 68.2%71.9%1.397——
total_goals:under:2.533.2%31.8% – 34.1%34.7%2.887——

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:58 (older than the display threshold). UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 1.89 · draw 4.00 · home 3.7811/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 4.00 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleMatch winneraway 1.91 · draw 4.12 · home 3.7211/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBOMatch winneraway 1.84 · draw 3.65 · home 3.2011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
William HillMatch winneraway 1.85 · draw 3.80 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Match winneraway 1.85 · draw 3.80 · home 3.7011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
DafabetMatch winneraway 1.90 · draw 4.10 · home 3.7511/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetMatch winneraway 1.94 · draw 4.11 · home 3.8811/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoMatch winneraway 1.88 · draw 3.95 · home 3.8011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorMatch winneraway 1.83 · draw 4.10 · home 3.6011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 2.7611/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 2.8811/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.42 · under 2.5 2.9411/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 3.0011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 2.7611/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.9011/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.39 · under 2.5 2.6911/10/2026, 09:30:5810/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:11:21.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesok11/10/2026, 19:41:58 (Last checked 3 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · AS Romaok11/10/2026, 01:39:34 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Real Madridok11/10/2026, 01:39:35 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home36.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away38.8%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x61.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x263.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.6%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes62.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no37.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.54.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.559.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.540.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.537.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.562.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.520.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.590.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.578.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.521.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.545.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.555.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.519.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.580.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.579.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.520.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.546.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.553.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.520.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.579.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.57.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.592.5%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.517.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.582.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.536.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.563.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.561.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.538.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.580.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.519.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.592.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.57.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home48.7%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away51.3%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 452 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:11:21