Got%OnIt
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Premier League·Sat 17 Oct, 07:00 PDT

BrentfordvLiverpool

Brentford
35%
Draw
25%
Liverpool
41%

Got%OnIt gives Liverpool a 41% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Premier League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Brentford and 1.6 for Liverpool.
  • Brentford won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 a game.
  • Liverpool won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Brentford are 4th of 20 after 6 games; Liverpool are 7th.
  • Brentford have won 2 and lost 0; Liverpool have won 2 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used

Brentford

  • D2–2at Aston Villa10 Oct
  • W3–0v Chelsea18 Sept
  • D2–2at Bournemouth12 Sept
  • D1–1v Sunderland5 Sept
  • D1–1at Leeds30 Aug
  • W3–0v Tottenham22 Aug

Liverpool

  • L0–3v Manchester City11 Oct
  • W1–0at Bournemouth20 Sept
  • D0–0v Fulham12 Sept
  • W2–1v Atletico Madrid9 Sept
  • W2–0at Ipswich4 Sept
  • D2–2v Nottingham Forest29 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Brentford win34.8%36.8%+2.1 pts
Draw24.6%23.8%−0.8 pts
Liverpool win40.7%39.4%−1.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–2 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.46 and 1.60). Brentford 1.46 · Liverpool 1.60 · total 3.06 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Brentford–Liverpool)

  1. 1–111.3%
  2. 1–28.8%
  3. 2–18.0%
  4. 0–17.2%
  5. 1–06.6%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Brentford

Expected goals
1.46
Scoring vs average
×0.95
Conceding vs average
×1.26

Liverpool

Expected goals
1.60
Scoring vs average
×1.26
Conceding vs average
×0.95
  • Brentford (home): expected to score ×0.95 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×1.26 the average.
  • Liverpool (away): expected to score ×1.26 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.95 the average.
  • Recent 369 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.54 home and 1.27 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.22).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Brentford
120 matches (120 with xG)
Liverpool
153 matches (152 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 3 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home34.8%over-stated by 3.2 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 28.8%
1x2:draw24.6%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 22.0%
1x2:away40.7%over-stated by 0.4 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 38.9%
double_chance:1x59.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x265.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1275.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes61.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no38.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.595.0%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 94.7%
total_goals:under:0.55.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.581.2%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 80.7%
total_goals:under:1.518.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.558.9%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.3%
total_goals:under:2.541.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.536.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 35.9%
total_goals:under:3.563.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.519.4%over-stated by 0.7 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 17.6%
total_goals:under:4.580.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.59.0%over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,190 matches (this competition); conservative 6.6%
total_goals:under:5.591.0%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.576.8%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 76.2%
team_total:home:under:0.523.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.542.9%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 42.2%
team_total:home:under:1.557.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.518.1%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 17.6%
team_total:home:under:2.581.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.56.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.2%
team_total:home:under:3.593.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.579.7%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.2%
team_total:away:under:0.520.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.547.4%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.7%
team_total:away:under:1.552.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.521.6%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.0%
team_total:away:under:2.578.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.57.8%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.3%
team_total:away:under:3.592.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.56.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 5.2%
spread:away:+2.593.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 93.5%
spread:home:-1.516.4%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 14.5%
spread:away:+1.583.6%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 83.1%
spread:home:-0.534.8%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.9%
spread:away:+0.565.2%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 64.6%
spread:home:+0.559.3%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.7%
spread:away:-0.540.7%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 39.4%
spread:home:+1.579.4%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 78.9%
spread:away:-1.520.6%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 19.7%
spread:home:+2.591.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.58.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home46.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away53.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.19 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 6209020304405816955 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.18 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Brentford win34.8%34.9% ± 0.2+0.17 pts
Draw24.6%24.0% ± 0.1−0.59 pts
Liverpool win40.7%41.1% ± 0.2+0.42 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.19 pts (spread:away:-1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Brentford
20.1% ± 0.1 (exact 20.3%)
Liverpool
23.3% ± 0.1 (exact 23.2%)

Goal difference (Brentford minus Liverpool)

  1. <-50.2% ± 0.0
  2. -50.6% ± 0.0
  3. -41.9% ± 0.0
  4. -35.5% ± 0.1
  5. -212.2% ± 0.1
  6. -120.7% ± 0.1
  7. 024.0% ± 0.1
  8. 118.6% ± 0.1
  9. 210.1% ± 0.1
  10. 34.2% ± 0.1
  11. 41.4% ± 0.0
  12. 50.4% ± 0.0
  13. >50.1% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Brentford 1–1 Liverpool11.0% ± 0.111.3%
Brentford 1–2 Liverpool8.9% ± 0.18.8%
Brentford 2–1 Liverpool8.1% ± 0.18.0%
Brentford 0–1 Liverpool7.6% ± 0.17.2%
Brentford 1–0 Liverpool6.8% ± 0.16.6%

Expected goals (simulated)

Brentford
mean 1.46 · variance 1.47 · ± 0.004
Liverpool
mean 1.59 · variance 1.58 · ± 0.004

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move liverpool win by −9.3 pts (to 31.3%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Brentford and −0.39 for Liverpool.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Brentford win34.8%42.9%+8.2 pts
Draw24.6%25.8%+1.2 pts
Liverpool win40.7%31.3%−9.3 pts
Expected goals1.46 – 1.601.46 – 1.21+0.00 / −0.39

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Brentford

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: M. Damsgaard, S. van den Berg, M. Jensen, D. OuattaraESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Kelleher)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Liverpool

Attack ×0.76 band 0.64–0.88 ESTIMATED · 48.4% of goals share out

  • C. Gakpo M Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 10.1% · effect −10.1% REPORTED
  • D. Szoboszlai M Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 17.0% · effect −17.0% REPORTED
  • A. Isak F Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 9.4% · effect −9.4% REPORTED
  • W. Endo M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • H. Ekitike F Missing Fixture (Achilles Tendon Injury) · share 11.9% · effect −11.9% REPORTED
  • C. Bradley D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Leoni D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: F. ChiesaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Alisson)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move liverpool win by +1.1 pts (to 41.8%). Expected goals move −0.04 for Brentford and −0.00 for Liverpool.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Brentford win34.8%34.0%−0.7 pts
Draw24.6%24.2%−0.4 pts
Liverpool win40.7%41.8%+1.1 pts
Expected goals1.46 – 1.601.42 – 1.59−0.04 / −0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Brentford rate ×0.97 band 0.67–1.64

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13535353535353545 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05858585858585852 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Liverpool rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.54

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05858585858585852 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13535353535353545 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move liverpool win by −8.6 pts (to 32.1%). Expected goals move −0.04 for Brentford and −0.39 for Liverpool.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Brentford win34.8%41.8%+7.1 pts
Draw24.6%26.1%+1.5 pts
Liverpool win40.7%32.1%−8.6 pts
Expected goals1.46 – 1.601.42 – 1.21−0.04 / −0.39

Data labels: CONFIRMED 134 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 53 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 3 h before as-of.

Brentford

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: M. Damsgaard, S. van den Berg, M. Jensen, D. OuattaraESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice C. Kelleher)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Liverpool

Attack ×0.76 band 0.64–0.88 ESTIMATED · 48.4% of goals share out

  • C. Gakpo M Missing Fixture (Ankle Injury) · share 10.1% · effect −10.1% REPORTED
  • D. Szoboszlai M Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 17.0% · effect −17.0% REPORTED
  • A. Isak F Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 9.4% · effect −9.4% REPORTED
  • W. Endo M Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • H. Ekitike F Missing Fixture (Achilles Tendon Injury) · share 11.9% · effect −11.9% REPORTED
  • C. Bradley D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
  • G. Leoni D Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: F. ChiesaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice Alisson)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)
  • away: fewer than four days since the previous match
  • away: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off
  • away: 3 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Brentford rate ×0.97 band 0.67–1.64

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13535353535353545 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution 0.025 (-0.046 to 0.115) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05858585858585852 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.009 (-0.048 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution -0.050 (-0.129 to 0.154) CONFIRMED

Liverpool rate ×1.00 band 0.63–1.54

  • fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 3 · contribution -0.023 (-0.076 to 0.024) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.05858585858585852 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.2727272727272727 · contribution -0.003 (-0.037 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • a UEFA fixture within four days after kick-off value 1 · contribution 0.026 (-0.136 to 0.124) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13535353535353545 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Brentford win34.8%35.7%+1.0 pts
Draw24.6%23.7%−0.8 pts
Liverpool win40.7%40.5%−0.1 pts
Expected goals—1.50 – 1.62+0.04 / +0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 559 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)I. Thiago 38% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Brentford

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 92% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
I. Thiago F37.6% ± 0.28.1% ± 0.10.47 ± 0.00280%
K. Schade M20.7% ± 0.12.3% ± 0.00.23 ± 0.00277%
K. Lewis-Potter F12.7% ± 0.10.8% ± 0.00.14 ± 0.00194%
V. Janelt M7.8% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00186%
D. Ouattara F7.6% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.08 ± 0.00141%
M. Damsgaard M7.1% ± 0.10.3% ± 0.00.07 ± 0.00158%
M. Kayode D5.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.00183%
Y. Yarmolyuk M4.2% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00161%

Liverpool

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 34% of goals assigned · 4 excluded

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
A. Mac Allister M11.2% ± 0.10.7% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00184%
V. van Dijk D11.0% ± 0.10.6% ± 0.00.12 ± 0.00186%
F. Wirtz M9.5% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00179%
R. Gravenberch M4.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.00145%
M. Kerkez D2.8% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00185%
V. Munoz F1.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00047%
R. Ngumoha F0.8% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00035%
J. Frimpong D0.7% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.00025%

Run 976 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 471, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Liverpool)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Brentford)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Premier League matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 22:50 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationBrentford 2 absent regulars · Liverpool 2.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 23:13 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Brentford

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League A Hull City +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Fri 18 SeptPLH ChelseaW 3–0counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctPLA Aston VillaD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sun 25 OctPLA Hull City+8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLA Sunderland+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 49 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: M. Damsgaard (M) — reason unknown; N. Collins (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.8 CONFIRMED

Brentford: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
Thiago · regularF9090—
K. Schade · regularM5252—
J. AnthonyM8585—
E. DioufD9090—
K. Ajer · regularD9018090' Norway, 12.8 d before
Jannik SchusterD4545—
K. Lewis-Potter · regularM6767—
V. Janelt · regularM90900' Germany, 12.8 d before
Y. YarmolyukM6767—
M. Kayode · regularD9012535' Italy, 11.8 d before
C. Kelleher · regularG9018090' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.8 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 433 minutes — A. Hickey (14' Scotland, 13.8 d before; 24' Scotland, 10.8 d before); K. Ajer (90' Norway, 12.8 d before); H. Valdimarsson (90' Iceland, 13.9 d before; 90' Iceland, 10.8 d before); M. Kayode (35' Italy, 11.8 d before); C. Kelleher (90' Rep. Of Ireland, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Liverpool

2.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Villarreal +3.2 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −2.9 d before (A Lask Linz); UEFA Champions League +3.2 d after (H Villarreal) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptPLA BournemouthW 1–0counted as workload
  • Sun 11 OctPLH Manchester CityL 0–3counted as workload
  • Wed 14 OctUCLA Lask LinzNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Tue 20 OctUCLH Villarreal+3.2 d
  • Sun 25 OctPLH Brighton+8 d
  • Wed 28 OctEFLH Chelsea+11.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 61 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Szoboszlai (M) — reason unknown; C. Gakpo (M) — reason unknown; A. Isak (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 3 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.7 CONFIRMED

Liverpool: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
L. KoumasF7513156' Wales, 12.8 d before
B. BarcolaM8816072' France, 11.8 d before
F. Wirtz · regularM6615690' Germany, 12.8 d before
Víctor MuñozM9014644' Spain, 13.8 d before; 12' Spain, 10.8 d before
R. GravenberchM9014959' Netherlands, 12.8 d before
M. Kerkez · regularD9090—
V. van Dijk · regularD9018090' Netherlands, 12.8 d before
R. AraújoD7575—
A. Mac Allister · regularM9090—
J. Jacquet · regularD8888—
Alisson Becker · regularG9090—

International duty in 14 days: 9 players, 620 minutes — G. Mamardashvili (90' Georgia, 11.8 d before); K. Tsimikas (90' Greece, 12.8 d before); R. Ngumoha (0' England, 13.9 d before; 17' England, 10.8 d before); L. Koumas (56' Wales, 12.8 d before); B. Barcola (72' France, 11.8 d before); F. Wirtz (90' Germany, 12.8 d before); Víctor Muñoz (44' Spain, 13.8 d before; 12' Spain, 10.8 d before); R. Gravenberch (59' Netherlands, 12.8 d before); V. van Dijk (90' Netherlands, 12.8 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Brentford35%35%39%
Draw25%26%26%
Liverpool41%39%36%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 23 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Liverpool a higher chance of winning than Kalshi (41% vs 36%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Brentford

  • Brentford: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.
  • D2–2at Aston Villa10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Chelsea18 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Bournemouth12 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1v Sunderland5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at Leeds30 Aug · in model evidence
  • W3–0v Tottenham22 Aug · in model evidence

Liverpool

  • Liverpool: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
  • Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 50%.
  • L0–3v Manchester City11 Oct · in model evidence
  • W1–0at Bournemouth20 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0v Fulham12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W2–0at Ipswich4 Sept · in model evidence
  • D2–2v Nottingham Forest29 Aug · in model evidence
  • D2–2at Newcastle23 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals5%
1 goal14%
2 goals22%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more9%
Over 1.581%
Over 2.559%
Over 3.537%
Both teams score61%

Brentford

Expected goals1.46
Scores at least once77%
Scores 2 or more43%
Clean sheet20%

Liverpool

Expected goals1.60
Scores at least once80%
Scores 2 or more47%
Clean sheet23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 4 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Brentford

4th of 20 · 10 pts · W2 D4 L0 from 6 games · scored 12, conceded 6

Home W2 D1 L0 (scored 7, conceded 1) · Away W0 D3 L0 (scored 5, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 6 games

Last five league games DWDDD (most recent last)

Liverpool

7th of 20 · 9 pts · W2 D3 L0 from 5 games · scored 7, conceded 4

Home W0 D2 L0 (scored 2, conceded 2) · Away W2 D1 L0 (scored 5, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WDWDD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 22 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 10 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Brentford to win34.8%34.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢
Draw24.6%24.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 27¢
Liverpool to win40.7%41.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 36¢
Double chance
Brentford or draw limited evidence59.3%58.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 65¢
Liverpool or draw limited evidence65.2%65.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 62¢
Not a draw limited evidence75.4%76.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 75¢
Draw no bet
Brentford to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence46.1%45.9% ± 0.2no
Liverpool to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence53.9%54.1% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.0%95.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 96¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence5.0%4.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence81.2%80.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 83¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence18.8%19.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 18¢
Over 2.5 goals in total58.9%58.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 62¢
Under 2.5 goals in total41.1%41.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence36.5%36.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 39¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence63.5%63.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 62¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence19.4%19.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 23¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence80.6%80.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence9.0%8.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence91.0%91.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence61.5%61.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 65¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence38.5%38.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 37¢
Team goals
Brentford over 0.5 goals limited evidence76.8%76.7% ± 0.1no
Brentford under 0.5 goals limited evidence23.2%23.3% ± 0.1no
Brentford over 1.5 goals limited evidence42.9%42.9% ± 0.2no
Brentford under 1.5 goals limited evidence57.1%57.1% ± 0.2no
Brentford over 2.5 goals limited evidence18.1%18.1% ± 0.1no
Brentford under 2.5 goals limited evidence81.9%81.9% ± 0.1no
Brentford over 3.5 goals limited evidence6.1%6.1% ± 0.1no
Brentford under 3.5 goals limited evidence93.9%93.9% ± 0.1no
Liverpool over 0.5 goals limited evidence79.7%79.9% ± 0.1no
Liverpool under 0.5 goals limited evidence20.3%20.1% ± 0.1no
Liverpool over 1.5 goals limited evidence47.4%47.3% ± 0.2no
Liverpool under 1.5 goals limited evidence52.6%52.7% ± 0.2no
Liverpool over 2.5 goals limited evidence21.6%21.4% ± 0.1no
Liverpool under 2.5 goals limited evidence78.4%78.6% ± 0.1no
Liverpool over 3.5 goals limited evidence7.8%7.8% ± 0.1no
Liverpool under 3.5 goals limited evidence92.2%92.2% ± 0.1no
Winning margin
Brentford to win by 3 or more limited evidence6.1%6.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Brentford to win by 2 or more limited evidence16.4%16.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 20¢
Brentford to win by 1 or more limited evidence34.8%34.9% ± 0.2no
Brentford not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence59.3%58.9% ± 0.2no
Brentford not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence79.4%79.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 85¢
Brentford not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence91.7%91.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 95¢
Liverpool to win by 3 or more limited evidence8.3%8.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 9¢
Liverpool to win by 2 or more limited evidence20.6%20.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 18¢
Liverpool to win by 1 or more limited evidence40.7%41.1% ± 0.2no
Liverpool not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence65.2%65.1% ± 0.2no
Liverpool not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence83.6%83.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 82¢
Liverpool not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence93.9%93.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 93¢
Clean sheet
Brentford clean sheet grid20.3%20.1% ± 0.1no
Liverpool clean sheet grid23.2%23.3% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—24.0% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford by exactly 1—18.6% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford by exactly 2—10.1% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford by exactly 3—4.2% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford by exactly 4—1.4% ± 0.0not listed
Brentford by exactly 5—0.4% ± 0.0not listed
Liverpool by exactly 1—20.7% ± 0.1not listed
Liverpool by exactly 2—12.2% ± 0.1not listed
Liverpool by exactly 3—5.5% ± 0.1not listed
Liverpool by exactly 4—1.9% ± 0.0not listed
Liverpool by exactly 5—0.6% ± 0.0not listed
Brentford by 6 or more—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Liverpool by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Brentford 1–1 Liverpool—11.0% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford 1–2 Liverpool—8.9% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford 2–1 Liverpool—8.1% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford 0–1 Liverpool—7.6% ± 0.1not listed
Brentford 1–0 Liverpool—6.8% ± 0.1not listed

Brentford v Liverpool: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
Brentford to win (90 minutes)
35%
39%
YES on Brentford to WinBrentford wins in 90 minutes
35%39¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 441 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Liverpool to win (90 minutes)
41%
36%
YES on Liverpool to WinLiverpool wins in 90 minutes
41%36¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 39,130 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
25%
26%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
25%27¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 19,317 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawBrentford or Liverpool wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
75%75¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 10,548 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Liverpool to WinBrentford wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
59%65¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 563 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Brentford to WinLiverpool wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
65%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 8,357 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
95%
95%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
95%96¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 363 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
5%6¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 907 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
81%
83%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
81%83¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 11 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
19%18¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 8 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
59%
61%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
59%62¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,309 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
41%40¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,738 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
37%
39%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
37%39¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 12 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
63%62¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 3,010 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
19%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
19%23¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,427 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
81%78¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 23 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
9%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,214 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
91%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,557 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
61%
64%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
61%65¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 5,643 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
39%37¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,780 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Winning margin
Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
16%
19%
Limited evidence
YES on Brentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrentford wins by 2 goals or more
16%20¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 509 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Brentford to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLiverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 1 goal · Brentford not by 2+ goals
84%82¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 157 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
6%
8%
Limited evidence
YES on Brentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrentford wins by 3 goals or more
6%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,310 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Brentford to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLiverpool wins or the match is drawn, or Brentford wins by 2 goals or fewer · Brentford not by 3+ goals
94%93¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 727 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
21%
17%
Limited evidence
YES on Liverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLiverpool wins by 2 goals or more
21%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,310 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Liverpool to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBrentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 1 goal · Liverpool not by 2+ goals
79%85¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 9,412 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
7%
Limited evidence
YES on Liverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLiverpool wins by 3 goals or more
8%9¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,073 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
NO on Liverpool to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBrentford wins or the match is drawn, or Liverpool wins by 2 goals or fewer · Liverpool not by 3+ goals
92%95¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 2,476 contracts at the ask · quote 23 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 34.8% · draw 24.6% · away 40.7%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.60
Brentford eligible matches
120 (120 with xG)
Liverpool eligible matches
153 (152 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Premier League; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's away probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

BrentfordOpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctAston Villaaway2–21.31–1.84D
18 SeptChelseahome3–02.65–0.83W
12 SeptBournemouthaway2–20.50–1.75D
5 SeptSunderlandhome1–11.21–1.71D
30 AugLeedsaway1–11.67–1.46D
22 AugTottenhamhome3–03.87–0.57W
LiverpoolOpponentVenueScorexGResult
11 OctManchester Cityhome0–30.94–1.36L
20 SeptBournemouthaway1–01.65–0.79W
12 SeptFulhamhome0–01.28–0.70D
9 SeptAtletico Madridhome2–11.62–0.91W
4 SeptIpswichaway2–00.69–0.75W
29 AugNottingham Foresthome2–21.75–2.30D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXEPLBTTS-26OCT17BRELFC-BTTS
61.5%64.0%−2.5 pts0.63 / 0.650.375,643 / 1,780Comparable
seen 23 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brentford to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE
34.8%38.5%−3.7 pts0.38 / 0.390.62441 / 8,357Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Liverpool to win (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC
40.7%35.5%+5.2 pts0.35 / 0.360.6539,130 / 563Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXEPLGAME-26OCT17BRELFC-TIE
24.6%26.0%−1.4 pts0.25 / 0.270.7519,317 / 10,548Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Brentford to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE2
16.4%19.0%−2.6 pts0.18 / 0.200.82509 / 157Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Brentford to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-BRE3
6.1%8.0%−1.9 pts0.07 / 0.090.931,310 / 727Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Liverpool to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC2
20.6%16.5%+4.1 pts0.15 / 0.180.851,310 / 9,412Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Liverpool to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLSPREAD-26OCT17BRELFC-LFC3
8.3%7.0%+1.3 pts0.05 / 0.090.952,073 / 2,476Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-1
95.0%95.0%+0.0 pts0.94 / 0.960.06363 / 907Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-2
81.2%82.5%−1.3 pts0.82 / 0.830.1811 / 8Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-3
58.9%61.0%−2.1 pts0.60 / 0.620.404,309 / 1,738Comparable
seen 23 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-4
36.5%38.5%−2.0 pts0.38 / 0.390.6212 / 3,010Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-5
19.4%22.5%−3.1 pts0.22 / 0.230.781,427 / 0Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXEPLTOTAL-26OCT17BRELFC-6
9.0%9.5%−0.5 pts0.08 / 0.110.921,214 / 1,557Comparable
seen 23 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 23:13:55.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home34.7%34.0% – 36.1%36.8%2.721034.8%+0.0 pts
1x2:draw26.0%24.7% – 26.7%27.0%3.701024.6%−1.4 pts
1x2:away39.3%38.7% – 40.6%41.6%2.401040.7%+1.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:19 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.560.9%60.2% – 62.0%65.8%1.52758.9%−2.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.539.1%38.0% – 39.8%41.7%2.40741.1%+2.0 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:19 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 2.43 · draw 3.64 · home 2.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairMatch winneraway 2.40 · draw 3.80 · home 2.6011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleMatch winneraway 2.46 · draw 3.60 · home 2.7411/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
SBOMatch winneraway 2.28 · draw 3.38 · home 2.5311/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
William HillMatch winneraway 2.38 · draw 3.50 · home 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Match winneraway 2.30 · draw 3.75 · home 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
DafabetMatch winneraway 2.41 · draw 3.70 · home 2.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetMatch winneraway 2.50 · draw 3.74 · home 2.8811/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoMatch winneraway 2.45 · draw 3.70 · home 2.7011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorMatch winneraway 2.38 · draw 3.70 · home 2.6311/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.56 · under 2.5 2.4511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3511/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.4211/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.52 · under 2.5 2.3111/10/2026, 09:31:1911/10/2026, 06:24:15

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 23:13:55.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:07 (Last checked 4 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 09/10/2026
Season statistics · Brentfordok11/10/2026, 01:39:10 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · Liverpoolok11/10/2026, 01:39:07 (Last checked 22 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home34.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw24.6%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away40.7%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x59.3%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x265.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1275.4%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes61.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no38.5%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.595.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.55.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.581.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.518.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.558.9%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.541.1%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.536.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.563.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.519.4%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.580.6%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.59.0%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.591.0%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.576.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.523.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.542.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.557.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.518.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.581.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.579.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.520.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.547.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.552.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.521.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.578.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.57.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.592.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.56.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.593.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.516.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.583.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.534.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.565.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.559.3%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.540.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.579.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.520.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.591.7%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.58.3%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home46.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away53.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 471 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 23:13:55