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Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 06:30 PDT

Werder BremenvSC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen
48%
Draw
28%
SC Paderborn 07
24%

Got%OnIt gives Werder Bremen a 48% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Worth knowing: We have seen only 5 Bundesliga matches for SC Paderborn 07, so the estimate is less certain than usual.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

  • The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
  • On these inputs the model expects about 1.4 goals for Werder Bremen and 0.9 for SC Paderborn 07.
  • Werder Bremen won 2 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 a game.
  • SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the 5 most recent matches the model used, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4 a game.

What argues against it

  • We have seen only 5 Bundesliga matches for SC Paderborn 07, so the estimate is less certain than usual.
  • Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
  • The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

  • Werder Bremen are 7th of 18 after 5 games; SC Paderborn 07 are 15th.
  • Werder Bremen have won 2 and lost 1; SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 and lost 3.
Recent matches the model used

Werder Bremen

  • D2–2at Borussia Dortmund9 Oct
  • W3–2v FC Augsburg19 Sept
  • D1–1at 1. FC Köln12 Sept
  • W3–1v RB Leipzig5 Sept
  • L1–4at SC Freiburg30 Aug
  • L0–2v Borussia Dortmund16 May

SC Paderborn 07

  • L0–2v VfB Stuttgart10 Oct
  • W3–1v 1899 Hoffenheim20 Sept
  • L0–3at Borussia Dortmund12 Sept
  • L0–1v SC Freiburg5 Sept
  • D0–0at FSV Mainz 0529 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

OutcomeHeadlineControlControl − headline
Werder Bremen win48.4%47.5%−0.9 pts
Draw27.8%28.4%+0.6 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%24.1%+0.3 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

1–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 1.41 and 0.90). Werder Bremen 1.41 · SC Paderborn 07 0.90 · total 2.31 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Werder Bremen–SC Paderborn 07)

  1. 1–013.6%
  2. 1–112.9%
  3. 0–010.2%
  4. 2–09.8%
  5. 2–18.9%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 1.0000).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Werder Bremen

Expected goals
1.41
Scoring vs average
×0.75
Conceding vs average
×0.63

SC Paderborn 07

Expected goals
0.90
Scoring vs average
×0.63
Conceding vs average
×0.75
  • Werder Bremen (home): expected to score ×0.75 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.63 the average.
  • SC Paderborn 07 (away): expected to score ×0.63 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×0.75 the average.
  • Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Werder Bremen
107 matches (107 with xG)
SC Paderborn 07
5 matches (5 with xG)
Competition
7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage
6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency
half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

  • Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
  • Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)
MarketFrozenDocumented calibration
1x2:home48.4%over-stated by 3.6 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 43.2%
1x2:draw27.8%under-stated by 2.3 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 25.2%
1x2:away23.8%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 22.4%
double_chance:1x76.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x251.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:1272.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes45.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no54.8%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.589.8%under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 89.4%
total_goals:under:0.510.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.567.5%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 66.9%
total_goals:under:1.532.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.540.7%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.0%
total_goals:under:2.559.3%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.520.3%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 19.8%
total_goals:under:3.579.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.58.5%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 7.6%
total_goals:under:4.591.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.53.1%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 2.5%
total_goals:under:5.596.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.575.6%under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.0%
team_total:home:under:0.524.4%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.541.1%under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 40.5%
team_total:home:under:1.558.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.516.9%under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 16.4%
team_total:home:under:2.583.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.55.5%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 4.6%
team_total:home:under:3.594.5%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.559.4%under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 58.8%
team_total:away:under:0.540.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.522.8%under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.3%
team_total:away:under:1.577.2%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.56.3%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 6.0%
team_total:away:under:2.593.7%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.0%
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.59.1%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 8.1%
spread:away:+2.590.9%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 90.5%
spread:home:-1.523.8%over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 21.9%
spread:away:+1.576.2%under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.6%
spread:home:-0.548.4%over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 46.6%
spread:away:+0.551.6%under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 50.9%
spread:home:+0.576.2%under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 75.7%
spread:away:-0.523.8%over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.6%
spread:home:+1.591.9%under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.5%
spread:away:-1.58.1%over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.5%
spread:home:+2.597.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.52.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home67.1%limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away32.9%limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.20 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 4774943293801952066 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.14 s

Match result · exact and simulated

OutcomeExact (headline)Simulated ± SEGap
Werder Bremen win48.4%48.8% ± 0.2+0.36 pts
Draw27.8%27.1% ± 0.1−0.66 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%24.1% ± 0.1+0.30 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.20 pts (spread:home:-2.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Werder Bremen
40.6% ± 0.2 (exact 40.6%)
SC Paderborn 07
24.3% ± 0.1 (exact 24.4%)

Goal difference (Werder Bremen minus SC Paderborn 07)

  1. <-50.0% ± 0.0
  2. -50.1% ± 0.0
  3. -40.3% ± 0.0
  4. -31.6% ± 0.0
  5. -26.1% ± 0.1
  6. -115.9% ± 0.1
  7. 027.1% ± 0.1
  8. 124.9% ± 0.1
  9. 215.0% ± 0.1
  10. 36.1% ± 0.1
  11. 42.0% ± 0.0
  12. 50.5% ± 0.0
  13. >50.2% ± 0.0

Correct score · top 5

ScoreSimulated ± SEExact
Werder Bremen 1–0 SC Paderborn 0714.0% ± 0.113.6%
Werder Bremen 1–1 SC Paderborn 0712.6% ± 0.112.9%
Werder Bremen 2–0 SC Paderborn 0710.0% ± 0.19.8%
Werder Bremen 0–0 SC Paderborn 079.9% ± 0.110.2%
Werder Bremen 2–1 SC Paderborn 078.9% ± 0.18.9%

Expected goals (simulated)

Werder Bremen
mean 1.41 · variance 1.40 · ± 0.004
SC Paderborn 07
mean 0.90 · variance 0.90 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move draw by −0.7 pts (to 27.1%). Expected goals move +0.00 for Werder Bremen and +0.00 for SC Paderborn 07.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Werder Bremen win48.4%48.8%+0.3 pts
Draw27.8%27.1%−0.7 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%24.1%+0.3 pts
Expected goals1.41 – 0.901.41 – 0.90+0.00 / +0.00

Data labels: CONFIRMED 71 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 46 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 35 h before as-of.

Werder Bremen

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: S. MusahESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice K. Hein)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

SC Paderborn 07

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Noll)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move sc paderborn 07 win by +1.6 pts (to 25.4%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Werder Bremen and +0.03 for SC Paderborn 07.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Werder Bremen win48.4%47.2%−1.3 pts
Draw27.8%27.4%−0.4 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%25.4%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.41 – 0.901.38 – 0.93−0.03 / +0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 71 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 46 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 35 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Werder Bremen rate ×0.98 band 0.80–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07 rate ×1.03 band 0.83–1.31

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move sc paderborn 07 win by +1.6 pts (to 25.4%). Expected goals move −0.03 for Werder Bremen and +0.03 for SC Paderborn 07.

OutcomeHeadlineAdjustedChange
Werder Bremen win48.4%47.2%−1.3 pts
Draw27.8%27.4%−0.4 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%25.4%+1.6 pts
Expected goals1.41 – 0.901.38 – 0.93−0.03 / +0.03

Data labels: CONFIRMED 71 · REPORTED 0 · ESTIMATED 46 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 35 h before as-of.

Werder Bremen

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Returning: S. MusahESTIMATED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice K. Hein)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

SC Paderborn 07

Attack ×1.00 band 1.00–1.00 ESTIMATED

No player reported out.

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice N. Noll)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

  • home: 2 regulars absent from the last squad list (reason unknown)

Werder Bremen rate ×0.98 band 0.80–1.17

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution -0.015 (-0.051 to 0.016) ESTIMATED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution 0.000 (-0.004 to 0.005) CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07 rate ×1.03 band 0.83–1.31

  • matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution -0.013 (-0.038 to 0.040) CONFIRMED
  • minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.06060606060606055 · contribution -0.001 (-0.005 to 0.002) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: matches in the last 14 days (relative to the league) value -1 · contribution 0.021 (-0.047 to 0.065) CONFIRMED
  • opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 2 · contribution 0.017 (-0.031 to 0.077) ESTIMATED
  • opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

  • experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

OutcomeHeadlineCandidateChange
Werder Bremen win48.4%48.6%+0.2 pts
Draw27.8%27.0%−0.8 pts
SC Paderborn 07 win23.8%24.4%+0.6 pts
Expected goals—1.42 – 0.92+0.01 / +0.02

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 553 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)S. Castaneda 21% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Werder Bremen

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 51% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
N. Fullkrug F17.7% ± 0.11.7% ± 0.00.19 ± 0.00183%
M. Grull M14.3% ± 0.11.1% ± 0.00.15 ± 0.00175%
L. Reis M8.2% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00183%
O. Deman M3.8% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.04 ± 0.001100%
E. Dinkci F3.1% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00166%
M. Friedl D3.0% ± 0.10.0% ± 0.00.03 ± 0.00191%
D. Stalmach M1.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.0000%
M. Weiser D1.2% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.01 ± 0.0000%

SC Paderborn 07

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 92% of goals assigned

PlayerAnytime2+xG ± SEStart
S. Castaneda M21.2% ± 0.12.4% ± 0.00.24 ± 0.00296%
S. Marino F19.3% ± 0.12.0% ± 0.00.22 ± 0.00184%
J. ter Horst D9.3% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.00185%
L. Curda M9.2% ± 0.10.5% ± 0.00.10 ± 0.001100%
G. Vidovic F8.5% ± 0.10.4% ± 0.00.09 ± 0.00185%
S. Tigges F4.5% ± 0.10.1% ± 0.00.05 ± 0.0010%
S. Michel F2.4% ± 0.00.0% ± 0.00.02 ± 0.0000%

Run 973 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 468, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

  • Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (Werder Bremen)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timeseason figures (SC Paderborn 07)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
  • Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00, status NS
  • Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
  • Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
  • Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
  • Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
  • Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationWerder Bremen 2 absent regulars · SC Paderborn 07 7 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:06 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

  • finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
  • the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Werder Bremen

7.8 days since the previous match · 0 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A FSV Mainz 05 +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sat 19 SeptBLH FC AugsburgW 3–2counted as workload
  • Fri 9 OctBLA Borussia DortmundD 2–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLA FSV Mainz 05+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBA Borussia Dortmund+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 19 in the squad); 38 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: S. Lynen (M) — reason unknown; J. Stage (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Werder Bremen: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
A. Pieper · regularD019—
ArthurD065—
K. HeinG0900' Estonia, 13.9 d before
L. ReisM090—
Y. RegeerM065—
M. Friedl · regularD0900' Austria, 12.9 d before
O. Deman · regularD090—
E. DinkçiM081—
Chuky San JoséM081—
N. FüllkrugF090—
M. GrüllM011828' Austria, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 118 minutes — A. Schlager (90' Austria, 12.9 d before); M. Grüll (28' Austria, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07

7 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga H Hamburger SV +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

  • Sun 20 SeptBLH 1899 HoffenheimW 3–1counted as workload
  • Sat 10 OctBLH VfB StuttgartL 0–2counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

  • Sat 24 OctBLH Hamburger SV+7 d
  • Tue 27 OctDFBH VfB Stuttgart+10.2 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 6 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 0 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.5 CONFIRMED

SC Paderborn 07: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XIPosMin 7 dMin 14 dInternational (14 d)
J. ter HorstD9090—
T. Scheller · regularD8585—
L. Curda · regularM9090—
S. Castañeda · regularM9090—
L. UlrichM8080—
S. Marino · regularF7070—
R. Obermair · regularM9090—
M. Hansen · regularD8585—
N. NollG9090—
M. PieringerF7070—
G. VidovićM9090—

International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

  • Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
  • International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
  • A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
  • The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
  • Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
  • Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

OutcomeGot%OnItBooksKalshi
Werder Bremen48%53%54%
Draw28%24%23%
SC Paderborn 0724%23%23%
Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 26 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives a draw a higher chance than Kalshi (28% vs 23%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 7 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Werder Bremen

  • Werder Bremen: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
  • Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 90%, over 2.5 in 60%.
  • D2–2at Borussia Dortmund9 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–2v FC Augsburg19 Sept · in model evidence
  • D1–1at 1. FC Köln12 Sept · in model evidence
  • W3–1v RB Leipzig5 Sept · in model evidence
  • L1–4at SC Freiburg30 Aug · in model evidence
  • L0–2v Borussia Dortmund16 May · in model evidence

SC Paderborn 07

  • SC Paderborn 07: 7 finished matches (5 of them in the model's evidence set).
  • Scored 0.6 and conceded 1.1 a game; scored in 29%, kept a clean sheet in 29%.
  • Both teams scored in 29%; over 1.5 goals in 57%, over 2.5 in 29%.
  • L0–2v VfB Stuttgart10 Oct · in model evidence
  • W3–1v 1899 Hoffenheim20 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–3at Borussia Dortmund12 Sept · in model evidence
  • L0–1v SC Freiburg5 Sept · in model evidence
  • D0–0at FSV Mainz 0529 Aug · in model evidence
  • D1–1v VfL Wolfsburg25 May · not in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals10%
1 goal22%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals5%
6 or more3%
Over 1.568%
Over 2.541%
Over 3.520%
Both teams score45%

Werder Bremen

Expected goals1.41
Scores at least once76%
Scores 2 or more41%
Clean sheet41%

SC Paderborn 07

Expected goals0.90
Scores at least once59%
Scores 2 or more23%
Clean sheet24%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season7th v 15th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Werder Bremen

7th of 18 · 8 pts · W2 D2 L1 from 5 games · scored 10, conceded 10

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 3) · Away W0 D2 L1 (scored 4, conceded 7)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 5 games

Last five league games DWDWL (most recent last)

SC Paderborn 07

15th of 18 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L3 from 5 games · scored 3, conceded 7

Home W1 D0 L2 (scored 3, conceded 4) · Away W0 D1 L1 (scored 0, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 4 in 5 games

Last five league games LWLLD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result
Werder Bremen to win48.4%48.8% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 55¢
Draw27.8%27.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
SC Paderborn 07 to win23.8%24.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Double chance
Werder Bremen or draw limited evidence76.2%75.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 78¢
SC Paderborn 07 or draw limited evidence51.6%51.2% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢
Not a draw limited evidence72.2%72.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Draw no bet
Werder Bremen to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence67.1%67.0% ± 0.2no
SC Paderborn 07 to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence32.9%33.0% ± 0.2no
Total goals
Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence89.8%90.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 97¢
Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence10.2%9.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢
Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence67.5%67.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢
Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence32.5%32.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 18¢
Over 2.5 goals in total40.7%40.6% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 64¢
Under 2.5 goals in total59.3%59.4% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 38¢
Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence20.3%20.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 42¢
Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence79.7%79.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 60¢
Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence8.5%8.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 24¢
Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence91.5%91.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 79¢
Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence3.1%3.0% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 12¢
Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence96.9%97.0% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 90¢
Both teams to score
Both teams to score limited evidence45.2%44.9% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢
At least one team fails to score limited evidence54.8%55.1% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢
Team goals
Werder Bremen over 0.5 goals limited evidence75.6%75.7% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen under 0.5 goals limited evidence24.4%24.3% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals limited evidence41.1%41.2% ± 0.2no
Werder Bremen under 1.5 goals limited evidence58.9%58.8% ± 0.2no
Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals limited evidence16.9%16.7% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen under 2.5 goals limited evidence83.1%83.3% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals limited evidence5.5%5.4% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen under 3.5 goals limited evidence94.5%94.6% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 over 0.5 goals limited evidence59.4%59.4% ± 0.2no
SC Paderborn 07 under 0.5 goals limited evidence40.6%40.6% ± 0.2no
SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 goals limited evidence22.8%22.9% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 under 1.5 goals limited evidence77.2%77.1% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 over 2.5 goals limited evidence6.3%6.4% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 under 2.5 goals limited evidence93.7%93.6% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 over 3.5 goals limited evidence1.4%1.4% ± 0.0no
SC Paderborn 07 under 3.5 goals limited evidence98.6%98.6% ± 0.0no
Winning margin
Werder Bremen to win by 3 or more limited evidence9.1%8.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 16¢
Werder Bremen to win by 2 or more limited evidence23.8%23.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 32¢
Werder Bremen to win by 1 or more limited evidence48.4%48.8% ± 0.2no
Werder Bremen not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence76.2%75.9% ± 0.1no
Werder Bremen not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence91.9%91.8% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 92¢
Werder Bremen not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence97.9%97.9% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 98¢
SC Paderborn 07 to win by 3 or more limited evidence2.1%2.1% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 6¢
SC Paderborn 07 to win by 2 or more limited evidence8.1%8.2% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢
SC Paderborn 07 to win by 1 or more limited evidence23.8%24.1% ± 0.1no
SC Paderborn 07 not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence51.6%51.2% ± 0.2no
SC Paderborn 07 not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence76.2%76.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 70¢
SC Paderborn 07 not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence90.9%91.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 87¢
Clean sheet
Werder Bremen clean sheet grid40.6%40.6% ± 0.2no
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet grid24.4%24.3% ± 0.1no
Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Draw (goal difference 0)—27.1% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen by exactly 1—24.9% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen by exactly 2—15.0% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen by exactly 3—6.1% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen by exactly 4—2.0% ± 0.0not listed
Werder Bremen by exactly 5—0.5% ± 0.0not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by exactly 1—15.9% ± 0.1not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by exactly 2—6.1% ± 0.1not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by exactly 3—1.6% ± 0.0not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by exactly 4—0.3% ± 0.0not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by exactly 5—0.1% ± 0.0not listed
Werder Bremen by 6 or more—0.2% ± 0.0not listed
SC Paderborn 07 by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed
Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi
Werder Bremen 1–0 SC Paderborn 07—14.0% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen 1–1 SC Paderborn 07—12.6% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07—10.0% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen 0–0 SC Paderborn 07—9.9% ± 0.1not listed
Werder Bremen 2–1 SC Paderborn 07—8.9% ± 0.1not listed

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner
SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes)
24%
23%
YES on SC Paderborn 07 to WinSC Paderborn 07 wins in 90 minutes
24%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 428 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes)
48%
54%
YES on Werder Bremen to WinWerder Bremen wins in 90 minutes
48%55¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 596 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)
28%
23%
YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes
28%24¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,847 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract
NO on DrawWerder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw
72%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 494 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on SC Paderborn 07 to WinWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw
76%78¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 1,168 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Werder Bremen to WinSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw
52%48¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 726 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
90%
96%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total
90%97¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 395 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals
10%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
68%
84%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total
68%86¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,888 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals
32%18¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 705 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
41%
63%
YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total
41%64¢
Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 396 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals
59%38¢
Eligible for Build under current settings · 212 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
20%
41%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total
20%42¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,346 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals
80%60¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 200 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
23%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total
9%24¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,345 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals
91%79¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 617 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
3%
11%
Limited evidence
YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total
3%12¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,345 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals
97%90¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 397 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Both teams to score
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
45%
62%
Limited evidence
YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once
45%63¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 4,721 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score
55%40¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 6,333 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Winning margin
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
8%
10%
Limited evidence
YES on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or more
8%11¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,245 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 1 goal · SC Paderborn 07 not by 2+ goals
92%92¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 77 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
2%
4%
Limited evidence
YES on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins by 3 goals or more
2%6¢
Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on SC Paderborn 07 to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins or the match is drawn, or SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2 goals or fewer · SC Paderborn 07 not by 3+ goals
98%98¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
24%
31%
Limited evidence
YES on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins by 2 goals or more
24%32¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 1 goal · Werder Bremen not by 2+ goals
76%70¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 622 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
9%
14%
Limited evidence
YES on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsWerder Bremen wins by 3 goals or more
9%16¢
Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 850 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
NO on Werder Bremen to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSC Paderborn 07 wins or the match is drawn, or Werder Bremen wins by 2 goals or fewer · Werder Bremen not by 3+ goals
91%87¢
Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 758 contracts at the ask · quote 26 min old
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities
home 48.4% · draw 27.8% · away 23.8%
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.90
Werder Bremen eligible matches
107 (107 with xG)
SC Paderborn 07 eligible matches
5 (5 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set
7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight
0.5
Cutoff
11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags
thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches; xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
  • EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
  • evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
  • draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
  • Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
  • historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
  • thin evidence: away side has 5 eligible matches
  • xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
  • the model's home probability is 5% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • the model's draw probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
  • draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Werder BremenOpponentVenueScorexGResult
9 OctBorussia Dortmundaway2–21.19–2.50D
19 SeptFC Augsburghome3–22.78–1.12W
12 Sept1. FC Kölnaway1–11.12–1.65D
5 SeptRB Leipzighome3–10.95–1.50W
30 AugSC Freiburgaway1–40.54–2.37L
16 MayBorussia Dortmundhome0–20.49–2.74L
SC Paderborn 07OpponentVenueScorexGResult
10 OctVfB Stuttgarthome0–21.91–2.45L
20 Sept1899 Hoffenheimhome3–10.68–1.50W
12 SeptBorussia Dortmundaway0–30.49–1.76L
5 SeptSC Freiburghome0–10.77–1.24L
29 AugFSV Mainz 05away0–00.73–1.23D

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to scoreModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17SVWPAD-BTTS
45.2%61.5%−16.3 pts0.60 / 0.630.404,721 / 6,333Comparable
seen 26 min ago
mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet
Match winnerModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
SC Paderborn 07 to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD
23.8%23.0%+0.8 pts0.22 / 0.240.78428 / 1,168Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Werder Bremen to win (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW
48.4%53.5%−5.1 pts0.52 / 0.550.48596 / 726Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
DrawModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Draw (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17SVWPAD-TIE
27.8%22.5%+5.3 pts0.21 / 0.240.791,847 / 494Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Winning marginModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD2
8.1%9.5%−1.4 pts0.08 / 0.110.921,245 / 77Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
SC Paderborn 07 to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-PAD3
2.1%4.0%−1.9 pts0.02 / 0.060.9825 / 25Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Werder Bremen to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW2
23.8%31.0%−7.2 pts0.30 / 0.320.70850 / 622Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Werder Bremen to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17SVWPAD-SVW3
9.1%14.5%−5.4 pts0.13 / 0.160.87850 / 758Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Total goalsModelMarket ref.DiffYES bid / askNO askResting (YES / NO)Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-1
89.8%95.5%−5.7 pts0.94 / 0.970.06395 / 25Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-2
67.5%84.0%−16.5 pts0.82 / 0.860.181,888 / 705Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-3
40.7%63.0%−22.3 pts0.62 / 0.640.38396 / 212Comparable
seen 26 min ago
historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-4
20.3%41.0%−20.7 pts0.40 / 0.420.601,346 / 200Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-5
8.5%22.5%−14.0 pts0.21 / 0.240.791,345 / 617Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)
KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17SVWPAD-6
3.1%11.0%−7.9 pts0.10 / 0.120.901,345 / 397Comparable
seen 26 min ago
not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:06:54.

Match resultConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
1x2:home53.0%49.8% – 53.6%56.2%1.781048.4%−4.6 pts
1x2:draw23.7%22.8% – 25.1%25.2%3.981027.8%+4.1 pts
1x2:away23.4%22.1% – 25.2%24.6%4.061023.8%+0.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 lineConsensusRangeRaw medianOdds medianBookmakersModelDiff
total_goals:over:2.561.4%60.8% – 62.0%66.2%1.51740.7%−20.7 pts
total_goals:under:2.538.6%38.0% – 39.2%41.7%2.40759.3%+20.7 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:17 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)
BookmakerMarketOddsObservedProvider stamp
MarathonbetMatch winneraway 4.10 · draw 4.15 · home 1.7911/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairMatch winneraway 3.80 · draw 4.00 · home 1.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleMatch winneraway 4.02 · draw 4.17 · home 1.7711/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBOMatch winneraway 3.52 · draw 3.53 · home 1.7811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
William HillMatch winneraway 3.90 · draw 3.90 · home 1.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Match winneraway 4.20 · draw 3.75 · home 1.7511/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
DafabetMatch winneraway 4.10 · draw 4.00 · home 1.8011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetMatch winneraway 4.21 · draw 4.26 · home 1.8411/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoMatch winneraway 4.20 · draw 3.95 · home 1.7811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorMatch winneraway 3.90 · draw 3.80 · home 1.7311/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
MarathonbetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetfairOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.4011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
PinnacleOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.54 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365Over/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBetOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.50 · under 2.5 2.3811/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetanoOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.5011/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictorOver/Under 2.5over 2.5 1.51 · under 2.5 2.3411/10/2026, 09:31:1711/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:06:54.

DatasetStateObservedNotes
Injuriesempty11/10/2026, 19:42:06 (Last checked 2 h ago)fresh
Lineupsnot_observed—before the window
Standingsok11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Werder Bremenok11/10/2026, 01:39:20 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh
Season statistics · SC Paderborn 07ok11/10/2026, 01:39:24 (Last checked 20 h ago)fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

KeyProbabilitySupportHistorical evaluation
1x2:home48.4%supportedprimary_target
1x2:draw27.8%supportedprimary_target
1x2:away23.8%supportedprimary_target
double_chance:1x76.2%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:x251.6%supportednot_evaluated
double_chance:1272.2%supportednot_evaluated
btts:yes45.2%supportedsupported_not_validated
btts:no54.8%supportedsupported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.589.8%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.510.2%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.567.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.532.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.540.7%supportedencouraging
total_goals:under:2.559.3%supportedencouraging
total_goals:over:3.520.3%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.579.7%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.58.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.591.5%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.53.1%supportednot_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.596.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.575.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.524.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.541.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.558.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.516.9%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.583.1%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.55.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.594.5%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.559.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.540.6%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.522.8%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.577.2%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.56.3%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.593.7%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.51.4%supportednot_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.598.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-2.59.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+2.590.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-1.523.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+1.576.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:-0.548.4%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:+0.551.6%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+0.576.2%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-0.523.8%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+1.591.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-1.58.1%supportednot_evaluated
spread:home:+2.597.9%supportednot_evaluated
spread:away:-2.52.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home67.1%supportednot_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away32.9%supportednot_evaluated

Snapshot 468 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:06:54