Bundesliga·Sat 17 Oct, 09:30 PDT

Bayern MünchenvRB Leipzig

Bayern München

76%

Draw

14%

RB Leipzig

11%

Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a 76% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished Bundesliga matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 3.1 goals for Bayern München and 1.2 for RB Leipzig.
Bayern München won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.7 a game.
RB Leipzig won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.5 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Bayern München are 2nd of 18 after 5 games; RB Leipzig are 5th.
Bayern München have won 3 and lost 0; RB Leipzig have won 3 and lost 2.

Recent matches the model used

Bayern München

D2–2at FC Augsburg10 Oct
W7–0v Union Berlin18 Sept
W2–1at SV Elversberg13 Sept
W5–0v Bodo/Glimt10 Sept
D0–0at FC Schalke 045 Sept
W5–1v VfB Stuttgart28 Aug

RB Leipzig

W6–0v Eintracht Frankfurt10 Oct
L0–2at Bayer Leverkusen20 Sept
W5–0v Hamburger SV13 Sept
L1–4at Como10 Sept
L1–3at Werder Bremen5 Sept
W3–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

Why this prediction

Headline · frozen working engine What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

Outcome	Headline	Control	Control − headline
Bayern München win	75.6%	71.6%	−4.0 pts
Draw	13.6%	15.0%	+1.4 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	13.4%	+2.6 pts

Headline: soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

3–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 3.12 and 1.18). Bayern München 3.12 · RB Leipzig 1.18 · total 4.30 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Bayern München–RB Leipzig)

3–18.1%
2–17.8%
3–06.9%
2–06.6%
4–16.3%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9996).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Bayern München

Expected goals: 3.12
Scoring vs average: ×1.67
Conceding vs average: ×0.82

RB Leipzig

Expected goals: 1.18
Scoring vs average: ×0.82
Conceding vs average: ×1.67

Bayern München (home): expected to score ×1.67 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.82 the average.
RB Leipzig (away): expected to score ×0.82 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.67 the average.
Recent 299 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.87 home and 1.44 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.30).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Bayern München: 148 matches (147 with xG)
RB Leipzig: 124 matches (123 with xG)
Competition: 7044 matches over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
xG coverage: 6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency: half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

Snapshot 2 h old · evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58.
Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (6)

xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0

Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)

Market	Frozen	Documented calibration
1x2:home	75.6%	under-stated by 6.4 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 73.1%
1x2:draw	13.6%	over-stated by 1.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 10.1%
1x2:away	10.8%	under-stated by 0.5 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 9.8%
double_chance:1x	89.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x2	24.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:12	86.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes	66.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no	33.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.5	98.5%	under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 98.3%
total_goals:under:0.5	1.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.5	92.9%	under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 92.6%
total_goals:under:1.5	7.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.5	80.2%	under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 79.7%
total_goals:under:2.5	19.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.5	62.2%	under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 61.5%
total_goals:under:3.5	37.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.5	42.9%	under-stated by 1.2 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 41.3%
total_goals:under:4.5	57.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.5	26.2%	under-stated by 0.9 pts on 954 matches (this competition); conservative 24.8%
total_goals:under:5.5	73.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.5	95.6%	under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.3%
team_total:home:under:0.5	4.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.5	81.8%	under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 81.3%
team_total:home:under:1.5	18.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.5	60.3%	under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 59.6%
team_total:home:under:2.5	39.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.5	37.9%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 36.7%
team_total:home:under:3.5	62.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.5	69.2%	under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 68.6%
team_total:away:under:0.5	30.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.5	32.9%	under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 32.3%
team_total:away:under:1.5	67.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.5	11.6%	under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 11.1%
team_total:away:under:2.5	88.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.5	3.2%	over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 2.8%
team_total:away:under:3.5	96.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.5	37.6%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 36.4%
spread:away:+2.5	62.4%	under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 61.7%
spread:home:-1.5	57.2%	over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 55.1%
spread:away:+1.5	42.8%	under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 42.2%
spread:home:-0.5	75.6%	over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 73.8%
spread:away:+0.5	24.4%	under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.8%
spread:home:+0.5	89.2%	under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 88.8%
spread:away:-0.5	10.8%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 9.8%
spread:home:+1.5	96.1%	under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.8%
spread:away:-1.5	3.9%	over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.4%
spread:home:+2.5	98.9%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.5	1.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home	87.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away	12.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

0 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.26 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 3930684116507633760 · mc-v1+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.26 s

Match result · exact and simulated

Outcome	Exact (headline)	Simulated ± SE	Gap
Bayern München win	75.6%	75.8% ± 0.1	+0.18 pts
Draw	13.6%	13.4% ± 0.1	−0.17 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	10.8% ± 0.1	−0.01 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.26 pts (team_total:away:over:1.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Bayern München: 30.7% ± 0.1 (exact 30.8%)
RB Leipzig: 4.4% ± 0.1 (exact 4.4%)

Goal difference (Bayern München minus RB Leipzig)

<-50.0% ± 0.0
-50.0% ± 0.0
-40.2% ± 0.0
-30.8% ± 0.0
-22.7% ± 0.1
-17.0% ± 0.1
013.4% ± 0.1
118.8% ± 0.1
219.5% ± 0.1
316.1% ± 0.1
410.6% ± 0.1
55.9% ± 0.1
>54.8% ± 0.1

Correct score · top 5

Score	Simulated ± SE	Exact
Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig	8.2% ± 0.1	8.1%
Bayern München 2–1 RB Leipzig	8.0% ± 0.1	7.8%
Bayern München 3–0 RB Leipzig	6.9% ± 0.1	6.9%
Bayern München 2–0 RB Leipzig	6.6% ± 0.1	6.6%
Bayern München 4–1 RB Leipzig	6.4% ± 0.1	6.3%

Expected goals (simulated)

Bayern München: mean 3.11 · variance 3.11 · ± 0.006
RB Leipzig: mean 1.17 · variance 1.17 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)3 overlays · 1 candidate engine · 0 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Shown for information only: these adjustments are not in the headline because their effect on accuracy has not been validated on settled matches (spec §15, §60). Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 0 settled so far: no overlay has been scored against a result yet.

Player availability · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Player availability would move bayern münchen win by +1.2 pts (to 76.8%). Expected goals move −0.07 for Bayern München and −0.11 for RB Leipzig.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change
Bayern München win	75.6%	76.8%	+1.2 pts
Draw	13.6%	13.2%	−0.4 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	10.0%	−0.8 pts
Expected goals	3.12 – 1.18	3.05 – 1.07	−0.07 / −0.11

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Bayern München

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.6% of goals share out

J. Musiala M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −4.6% REPORTED
T. Buchmann Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Neuer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

RB Leipzig

Attack ×0.91 band 0.86–0.95 ESTIMATED · 18.0% of goals share out

C. Baumgartner M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 15.0% · effect −15.0% REPORTED
L. Zingerle G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
A. Ouedraogo M Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
Marc Guiu F Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
A. Kone D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: R. Reitz, B. GrudaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Vandevoordt)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Fatigue and schedule · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Fatigue and schedule would move bayern münchen win by −1.4 pts (to 74.2%). Expected goals move −0.10 for Bayern München and +0.01 for RB Leipzig.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change
Bayern München win	75.6%	74.2%	−1.4 pts
Draw	13.6%	14.0%	+0.4 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	11.7%	+0.9 pts
Expected goals	3.12 – 1.18	3.02 – 1.18	−0.10 / +0.01

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

home: fewer than four days since the previous match
away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bayern München rate ×0.97 band 0.72–1.33

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig rate ×1.01 band 0.74–1.43

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Combined (availability + fatigue) · as of 11/10/2026, 20:00:00

Combined (availability + fatigue) would move draw by +0.3 pts (to 13.9%). Expected goals move −0.17 for Bayern München and −0.10 for RB Leipzig.

Outcome	Headline	Adjusted	Change
Bayern München win	75.6%	75.3%	−0.3 pts
Draw	13.6%	13.9%	+0.3 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	10.8%	−0.0 pts
Expected goals	3.12 – 1.18	2.95 – 1.08	−0.17 / −0.10

Data labels: CONFIRMED 125 · REPORTED 7 · ESTIMATED 52 · UNKNOWN 0 · newest input 0 h before as-of.

Bayern München

Attack ×0.98 band 0.97–0.99 ESTIMATED · 4.6% of goals share out

J. Musiala M Missing Fixture (Muscle Injury) · share 4.6% · effect −4.6% REPORTED
T. Buchmann Missing Fixture (Knee Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Neuer)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

RB Leipzig

Attack ×0.91 band 0.86–0.95 ESTIMATED · 18.0% of goals share out

C. Baumgartner M Missing Fixture (Thigh Injury) · share 15.0% · effect −15.0% REPORTED
L. Zingerle G Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
A. Ouedraogo M Missing Fixture (Shoulder Injury) · share 3.1% · effect −3.1% REPORTED
Marc Guiu F Missing Fixture (Hamstring Injury) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED
A. Kone D Missing Fixture (Off the roster) · share 0.0% · effect 0 REPORTED

Returning: R. Reitz, B. GrudaCONFIRMED

Goalkeeper: no flag (first choice M. Vandevoordt)ESTIMATED

Expected XI vs confirmed XI: no confirmed XI yet (expected XI is ESTIMATED from start probabilities)

Fatigue and schedule ESTIMATED · verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE · influence on the headline 0. Facts come from the Team situation section.

home: fewer than four days since the previous match
away: fewer than four days since the previous match

Bayern München rate ×0.97 band 0.72–1.33

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution -0.008 (-0.025 to 0.008) ESTIMATED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution -0.016 (-0.087 to 0.032) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.001 (-0.012 to 0.013) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution 0.001 (-0.009 to 0.011) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.006 (-0.032 to 0.021) CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig rate ×1.01 band 0.74–1.43

fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution -0.037 (-0.112 to 0.081) CONFIRMED
minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -0.13434343434343432 · contribution -0.002 (-0.012 to 0.004) CONFIRMED
share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.18181818181818182 · contribution -0.002 (-0.025 to 0.027) CONFIRMED
opponent: fewer than four days since the previous match value 1 · contribution 0.034 (-0.054 to 0.116) CONFIRMED
opponent: regulars absent from the last squad list value 1 · contribution 0.008 (-0.015 to 0.038) ESTIMATED
opponent: minutes played by the last XI over 7 days (centred) value -1 · contribution 0.007 (-0.067 to 0.083) CONFIRMED
opponent: share of the XI changed since the previous match value 0.09090909090909091 · contribution -0.003 (-0.016 to 0.011) CONFIRMED

Travel: unavailable — the provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated.

experimental overlay: not the headline; multipliers are unvalidated priors / coefficients whose bands include zero

Candidate engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous_headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

Outcome	Headline	Candidate	Change
Bayern München win	75.6%	72.6%	−3.0 pts
Draw	13.6%	14.6%	+1.0 pts
RB Leipzig win	10.8%	12.7%	+1.9 pts
Expected goals	—	2.94 – 1.21	−0.17 / +0.03

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 573 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Player scoring (simulation)H. Kane 64% anytime

Experimental · not in the headline Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with the team’s goals. No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Bayern München

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 84% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
H. Kane M	64.0% ± 0.2	27.4% ± 0.1	1.02 ± 0.003	91%
M. Olise M	43.1% ± 0.2	11.0% ± 0.1	0.56 ± 0.002	88%
L. Diaz M	32.2% ± 0.1	5.9% ± 0.1	0.39 ± 0.002	86%
A. Pavlovic M	7.8% ± 0.1	0.3% ± 0.0	0.08 ± 0.001	90%
L. Karl M	6.8% ± 0.1	0.2% ± 0.0	0.07 ± 0.001	27%
D. Upamecano D	6.2% ± 0.1	0.2% ± 0.0	0.06 ± 0.001	88%
J. Stanišić D	4.3% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	71%
A. Davies D	3.5% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	67%

RB Leipzig

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 61% of goals assigned · 2 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
A. Nusa M	13.0% ± 0.1	0.9% ± 0.0	0.14 ± 0.001	92%
R. Baku D	7.8% ± 0.1	0.3% ± 0.0	0.08 ± 0.001	81%
W. Orban D	7.7% ± 0.1	0.3% ± 0.0	0.08 ± 0.001	100%
Romulo Cardoso F	6.6% ± 0.1	0.2% ± 0.0	0.07 ± 0.001	47%
C. Nkunku F	6.3% ± 0.1	0.2% ± 0.0	0.06 ± 0.001	61%
B. Gruda F	4.2% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	54%
E. Banzuzi M	4.1% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	77%
D. Raum D	2.6% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.03 ± 0.001	92%

Run 983 (mc-v1+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 11/10/2026, 21:49:51. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT (evidence cutoff Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT; snapshot 478, soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayern München)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (RB Leipzig)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00, status NS
Available at prediction timebookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished Bundesliga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 21:41 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationBayern München 3.9 d rest (short) · RB Leipzig 3.9 d rest (short)

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 22:08 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Bayern München

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 2 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Arsenal +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (A Viking) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Fri 18 SeptBLH Union BerlinW 7–0counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLA FC AugsburgD 2–2counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLA VikingNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLH Arsenal+4.1 d
Sun 25 OctBLA SC Freiburg+8 d
Tue 27 OctDFBH 1. FC Magdeburg+10.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Laimer (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Bayern München: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
I. Saibari	M	67	—
H. Kane · regular	F	172	82' England, 10.9 d before
L. Díaz · regular	M	87	—
A. Pavlović · regular	M	177	90' Germany, 12.9 d before
J. Kimmich · regular	M	90	—
J. Tah · regular	D	90	—
M. Neuer · regular	G	90	—
M. Olise · regular	M	120	30' France, 11.9 d before
A. Davies	D	90	—
D. Upamecano · regular	D	90	—
J. Stanišić · regular	D	157	90' Croatia, 10.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 529 minutes — T. Bischof (83' Germany, 12.9 d before); J. Urbig (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); L. Karl (64' Germany, 12.9 d before); H. Kane (82' England, 10.9 d before); A. Pavlović (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); M. Olise (30' France, 11.9 d before); J. Stanišić (90' Croatia, 10.9 d before) CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 2 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A Real Madrid +4.1 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −3.9 d before (H PSV Eindhoven) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLA Bayer LeverkusenL 0–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH Eintracht FrankfurtW 6–0counted as workload
Tue 13 OctUCLH PSV EindhovenNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLA Real Madrid+4.1 d
Sat 24 OctBLH SV Elversberg+6.9 d
Tue 27 OctDFBA Rot-Weiß Essen+10.1 d
Sat 31 OctBLA FC Schalke 04+13.9 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 42 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.9 CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
M. Vandevoordt · regular	G	90	180	90' Belgium, 11.9 d before
C. Nkunku	M	64	64	—
E. Banzuzi	M	73	73	—
D. Raum · regular	D	90	180	90' Germany, 12.9 d before
C. Lukeba · regular	D	90	90	—
W. Orbán · regular	D	90	180	90' Hungary, 11.9 d before
Rômulo	F	90	90	—
A. Nusa · regular	M	64	138	74' Norway, 12.9 d before
A. MaksimoviÄ	M	90	90	—
N. El Aynaoui	M	58	58	—
R. Baku · regular	D	58	58	0' Germany, 12.9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 5 players, 421 minutes — M. Vandevoordt (90' Belgium, 11.9 d before); D. Raum (90' Germany, 12.9 d before); W. Orbán (90' Hungary, 11.9 d before); N. Seiwald (77' Austria, 13 d before); A. Nusa (74' Norway, 12.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Bayern München	76%	77%	79%
Draw	14%	14%	12%
RB Leipzig	11%	10%	10%

Based on 9 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 27 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Bayern München

Bayern München: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 3.3 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 80%.

D2–2at FC Augsburg10 Oct · in model evidence
W7–0v Union Berlin18 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1at SV Elversberg13 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at FC Schalke 045 Sept · in model evidence
W5–1v VfB Stuttgart28 Aug · in model evidence
W5–1v 1. FC Köln16 May · in model evidence

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.5 and conceded 1.6 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 90%.

W6–0v Eintracht Frankfurt10 Oct · in model evidence
L0–2at Bayer Leverkusen20 Sept · in model evidence
W5–0v Hamburger SV13 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3at Werder Bremen5 Sept · in model evidence
W3–0v Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug · in model evidence
L1–4at SC Freiburg16 May · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Sun 11 Oct, 19:58 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	1%
1 goal	6%
2 goals	13%
3 goals	18%
4 goals	19%
5 goals	17%
6 or more	26%
Over 1.5	93%
Over 2.5	80%
Over 3.5	62%
Both teams score	66%

Bayern München

Expected goals	3.12
Scores at least once	96%
Scores 2 or more	82%
Clean sheet	31%

RB Leipzig

Expected goals	1.18
Scores at least once	69%
Scores 2 or more	33%
Clean sheet	4%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availabilitynone listed

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season2nd v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Bayern München

2nd of 18 · 11 pts · W3 D2 L0 from 5 games · scored 16, conceded 4

Home W2 D0 L0 (scored 12, conceded 1) · Away W1 D2 L0 (scored 4, conceded 3)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games DWWDW (most recent last)

RB Leipzig

5th of 18 · 9 pts · W3 D0 L2 from 5 games · scored 15, conceded 5

Home W3 D0 L0 (scored 14, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L2 (scored 1, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 3 · failed to score 1 in 5 games

Last five league games WLWLW (most recent last)

Table Last checked 20 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 11 Oct.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts · 52 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 52 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Headline · frozen working engine The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result

Bayern München to win75.6%75.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 80¢

Draw13.6%13.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 13¢

RB Leipzig to win10.8%10.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 11¢

Double chance

Bayern München or draw limited evidence89.2%89.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢

RB Leipzig or draw limited evidence24.4%24.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢

Not a draw limited evidence86.4%86.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 89¢

Draw no bet

Bayern München to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence87.5%87.5% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence12.5%12.5% ± 0.1no

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence98.5%98.7% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 99¢

Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence1.5%1.3% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 3¢

Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence92.9%92.7% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 96¢

Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence7.1%7.3% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 7¢

Over 2.5 goals in total80.2%80.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 86¢

Under 2.5 goals in total19.8%19.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 16¢

Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence62.2%62.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 68¢

Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence37.8%38.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 33¢

Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence42.9%42.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 48¢

Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence57.1%57.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢

Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence26.2%26.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 33¢

Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence73.8%73.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 69¢

Both teams to score

Both teams to score limited evidence66.2%66.3% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 69¢

At least one team fails to score limited evidence33.8%33.7% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 32¢

Team goals

Bayern München over 0.5 goals limited evidence95.6%95.6% ± 0.1no

Bayern München under 0.5 goals limited evidence4.4%4.4% ± 0.1no

Bayern München over 1.5 goals limited evidence81.8%81.7% ± 0.1no

Bayern München under 1.5 goals limited evidence18.2%18.3% ± 0.1no

Bayern München over 2.5 goals limited evidence60.3%60.2% ± 0.2no

Bayern München under 2.5 goals limited evidence39.7%39.8% ± 0.2no

Bayern München over 3.5 goals limited evidence37.9%37.7% ± 0.2no

Bayern München under 3.5 goals limited evidence62.1%62.3% ± 0.2no

RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals limited evidence69.2%69.3% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals limited evidence30.8%30.7% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals limited evidence32.9%32.6% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals limited evidence67.1%67.4% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals limited evidence11.6%11.3% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals limited evidence88.4%88.7% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig over 3.5 goals limited evidence3.2%3.2% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig under 3.5 goals limited evidence96.8%96.8% ± 0.1no

Winning margin

Bayern München to win by 3 or more limited evidence37.6%37.5% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 44¢

Bayern München to win by 2 or more limited evidence57.2%57.0% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 63¢

Bayern München to win by 1 or more limited evidence75.6%75.8% ± 0.1no

Bayern München not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence89.2%89.2% ± 0.1no

Bayern München not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence96.1%96.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 98¢

Bayern München not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence98.9%98.9% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢

RB Leipzig to win by 3 or more limited evidence1.1%1.1% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 11¢

RB Leipzig to win by 2 or more limited evidence3.9%3.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 7¢

RB Leipzig to win by 1 or more limited evidence10.8%10.8% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence24.4%24.2% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence42.8%43.0% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 40¢

RB Leipzig not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence62.4%62.5% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 59¢

Clean sheet

Bayern München clean sheet grid30.8%30.7% ± 0.1no

RB Leipzig clean sheet grid4.4%4.4% ± 0.1no

Goal differencesimulation only · not listed on Kalshi

Draw (goal difference 0)—13.4% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München by exactly 1—18.8% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München by exactly 2—19.5% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München by exactly 3—16.1% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München by exactly 4—10.6% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München by exactly 5—5.9% ± 0.1not listed

RB Leipzig by exactly 1—7.0% ± 0.1not listed

RB Leipzig by exactly 2—2.7% ± 0.1not listed

RB Leipzig by exactly 3—0.8% ± 0.0not listed

RB Leipzig by exactly 4—0.2% ± 0.0not listed

RB Leipzig by exactly 5—0.0% ± 0.0not listed

Bayern München by 6 or more—4.8% ± 0.1not listed

RB Leipzig by 6 or more—0.0% ± 0.0not listed

Correct scoresimulation only · not listed on Kalshi

Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig—8.2% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München 2–1 RB Leipzig—8.0% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München 3–0 RB Leipzig—6.9% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München 2–0 RB Leipzig—6.6% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München 4–1 RB Leipzig—6.4% ± 0.1not listed

Bayern München v RB Leipzig: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner

Bayern München to win (90 minutes)

76%

79%

YES on Bayern München to WinBayern München wins in 90 minutes

76%80¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 4,789 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)

11%

10%

YES on RB Leipzig to WinRB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes

11%11¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,663 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

14%

12%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

14%13¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,577 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawBayern München or RB Leipzig wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

86%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 796 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on RB Leipzig to WinBayern München wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

89%91¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 430 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Bayern München to WinRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

24%22¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,429 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

99%

98%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

99%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 401 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

1%3¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

93%

95%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

93%96¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 364 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

7%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 836 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

80%

85%

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

80%86¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 367 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

20%16¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 184 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

62%

68%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

62%68¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

38%33¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 700 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

43%

48%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

43%48¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

57%53¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 909 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

26%

32%

Limited evidence

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

26%33¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,115 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

74%69¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 186 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

66%

69%

Limited evidence

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

66%69¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

34%32¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 27 min old

Winning margin

Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

57%

62%

Limited evidence

YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 2 goals or more

57%63¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 368 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 1 goal · Bayern München not by 2+ goals

43%40¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 178 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

38%

43%

Limited evidence

YES on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins by 3 goals or more

38%44¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 364 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on Bayern München to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or Bayern München wins by 2 goals or fewer · Bayern München not by 3+ goals

62%59¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 549 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or more

4%7¢

Limited evidence · Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,352 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 1 goal · RB Leipzig not by 2+ goals

96%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

Limited evidence

YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 3 goals or more

1%11¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsBayern München wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig not by 3+ goals

99%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 300 contracts at the ask · quote 27 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 75.6% · draw 13.6% · away 10.8%
Expected goals: 3.12 – 1.18
Bayern München eligible matches: 148 (147 with xG)
RB Leipzig eligible matches: 124 (123 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 11/10/2026, 19:58:30
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including Bundesliga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Bayern München	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	FC Augsburg	away	2–2	5.08–2.45	D
18 Sept	Union Berlin	home	7–0	3.71–0.34	W
13 Sept	SV Elversberg	away	2–1	2.83–0.94	W
10 Sept	Bodo/Glimt	home	5–0	—	W
5 Sept	FC Schalke 04	away	0–0	1.94–0.21	D
28 Aug	VfB Stuttgart	home	5–1	4.06–0.79	W

RB Leipzig	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Eintracht Frankfurt	home	6–0	3.44–1.38	W
20 Sept	Bayer Leverkusen	away	0–2	0.97–2.27	L
13 Sept	Hamburger SV	home	5–0	2.43–1.10	W
10 Sept	Como	away	1–4	—	L
5 Sept	Werder Bremen	away	1–3	1.50–0.95	L
29 Aug	Borussia Mönchengladbach	home	3–0	3.96–1.09	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGABTTS-26OCT17BMURBL-BTTS	66.2%	68.5%	−2.3 pts	0.68 / 0.69	0.32	0 / 0	Comparable seen 27 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Bayern München to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU	75.6%	79.0%	−3.4 pts	0.78 / 0.80	0.22	4,789 / 1,429	Comparable seen 27 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL	10.8%	10.0%	+0.8 pts	0.09 / 0.11	0.91	5,663 / 430	Comparable seen 27 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGAGAME-26OCT17BMURBL-TIE	13.6%	12.0%	+1.6 pts	0.11 / 0.13	0.89	5,577 / 796	Comparable seen 27 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU2	57.2%	61.5%	−4.3 pts	0.60 / 0.63	0.40	368 / 178	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-BMU3	37.6%	42.5%	−4.9 pts	0.41 / 0.44	0.59	364 / 549	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL2	3.9%	4.5%	−0.6 pts	0.02 / 0.07	0.98	1,352 / 25	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26OCT17BMURBL-RBL3	1.1%	6.0%	−4.9 pts	0.01 / 0.11	0.99	25 / 300	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-1	98.5%	98.0%	+0.5 pts	0.97 / 0.99	0.03	401 / 0	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-2	92.9%	94.5%	−1.6 pts	0.93 / 0.96	0.07	364 / 836	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-3	80.2%	85.0%	−4.8 pts	0.84 / 0.86	0.16	367 / 184	Comparable seen 27 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-4	62.2%	67.5%	−5.3 pts	0.67 / 0.68	0.33	0 / 700	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-5	42.9%	47.5%	−4.6 pts	0.47 / 0.48	0.53	0 / 909	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXBUNDESLIGATOTAL-26OCT17BMURBL-6	26.2%	32.0%	−5.8 pts	0.31 / 0.33	0.69	1,115 / 186	Comparable seen 27 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 22:08:08.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	76.8%	73.7% – 78.4%	80.6%	1.24	9	75.6%	−1.1 pts
1x2:draw	14.0%	12.3% – 15.5%	14.3%	7.00	9	13.6%	−0.4 pts
1x2:away	9.9%	8.8% – 12.1%	10.5%	9.50	9	10.8%	+0.9 pts

9 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:23 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	81.2%	80.6% – 83.6%	89.3%	1.12	6	80.2%	−1.0 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	18.8%	16.4% – 19.4%	20.2%	4.95	6	19.8%	+1.0 pts

6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:24 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (15)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 10.75 · draw 6.70 · home 1.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Match winner	away 10.00 · draw 7.50 · home 1.18	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
SBO	Match winner	away 7.34 · draw 6.28 · home 1.21	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
William Hill	Match winner	away 9.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Match winner	away 9.50 · draw 7.00 · home 1.22	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Dafabet	Match winner	away 9.20 · draw 7.60 · home 1.24	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Match winner	away 11.20 · draw 7.03 · home 1.27	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Match winner	away 9.00 · draw 7.00 · home 1.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Match winner	away 9.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.20	11/10/2026, 09:31:23	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 5.50	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.17 · under 2.5 5.00	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.80	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 4.90	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.13 · under 2.5 5.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:24	11/10/2026, 06:57:19

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 22:08:08.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	11/10/2026, 19:42:10 (Last checked 2 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:05 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 10/10/2026
Season statistics · Bayern München	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:19 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · RB Leipzig	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:23 (Last checked 20 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	75.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	13.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	10.8%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	89.2%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	24.4%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	86.4%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	66.2%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	33.8%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	98.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	1.5%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	92.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	7.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	80.2%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	19.8%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	62.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	37.8%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	42.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	57.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	26.2%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	73.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	95.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	4.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	81.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	18.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	60.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	39.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	37.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	62.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	69.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	30.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	32.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	67.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	11.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	88.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	3.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	96.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	37.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	62.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	57.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	42.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	75.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	24.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	89.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	10.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	96.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	3.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	98.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	1.1%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	87.5%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	12.5%	supported	not_evaluated

Snapshot 478 · soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · digest 28167ddf46eebcfb · data as of 11/10/2026, 22:08:08